TY - JOUR A1 - Eydam, Ulrich Leonard A1 - Gabriadze, Irakli T1 - Institutional development in transition economies BT - the role of institutional experience JF - Post-Soviet affairs N2 - To understand the divergent institutional development in transition economies, we examine the role of institutional experience from the pre-Soviet era in institution-building after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. To measure institutional experience, we construct an index that captures previous experience with independent non-Soviet institutions. A cross-sectional analysis shows that institutional experience is statistically significantly associated with the quality of political, administrative, and legal institutions in transition economies today. To provide a more comprehensive picture and to control for confounding factors, in a second step, we apply a Hausman-Taylor estimator on panel data. This analysis confirms the positive relationship between institutional experience and institutional development. Moreover, the results suggest that the association between institutional experience and political institutions is stronger than the association to the other dimensions of institutions. Overall, the analysis highlights the importance of institutional experience and provides a rationale for the persistency of institutions. KW - institutions KW - comparative development KW - transition economies KW - post-Soviet KW - space KW - collective memory Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1060586X.2020.1848171 SN - 1060-586X SN - 1938-2855 VL - 37 IS - 2 SP - 99 EP - 118 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Amann, Erwin A1 - Rzepka, Sylvi T1 - The Effect of Goal-Setting Prompts in a Blended Learning Environment BT - Evidence from a Field Experiment T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We investigate how inviting students to set task-based goals affects usage of an online learning platform and course performance. We design and implement a randomized field experiment in a large mandatory economics course with blended learning elements. The low-cost treatment induces students to use the online learning system more often, more intensively, and to begin earlier with exam preparation. Treated students perform better in the course than the control group: they are 18.8% (0.20 SD) more likely to pass the exam and earn 6.7% (0.19 SD) more points on the exam. There is no evidence that treated students spend significantly more time, rather they tend to shift to more productive learning methods. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that higher treatment effects are associated with higher levels of behavioral bias but also with poor early course behavior. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 25 KW - natural field experiment KW - blended learning KW - behavioral economics KW - goal-setting Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-493476 SN - 2628-653X N1 - The trial is registered in the AEA RCT registry, RCT ID AEARCTR-28790 (https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.2928-1.0). IS - 25 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Friedrichsen, Jana T1 - The Leniency Rule Revisited: Experiments on Cartel Formation with Open Communication T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The experimental literature on antitrust enforcement provides robust evidence that communication plays an important role for the formation and stability of cartels. We extend these studies through a design that distinguishes between innocuous communication and communication about a cartel, sanctioning only the latter. To this aim, we introduce a participant in the role of the competition authority, who is properly incentivized to judge communication content and price setting behavior of the firms. Using this novel design, we revisit the question whether a leniency rule successfully destabilizes cartels. In contrast to existing experimental studies, we find that a leniency rule does not affect cartelization. We discuss potential explanations for this contrasting result. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 24 KW - cartel KW - judgment of communication KW - corporate leniency program KW - price competition KW - experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-491696 SN - 2628-653X N1 - This project, including the design and hypotheses, was preregistered at OSF before data collection had started (osf.io/ubhz8). IS - 24 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Diluiso, Francesca A1 - Walk, Paula A1 - Manych, Niccolo A1 - Cerutti, Nicola A1 - Chipiga, Vladislav A1 - Workman, Annabelle A1 - Ayas, Ceren A1 - Cui, Ryna Yiyun A1 - Cui, Diyang A1 - Song, Kaihui A1 - Banisch, Lucy A. A1 - Moretti, Nikolaj A1 - Callaghan, Max W. A1 - Clarke, Leon A1 - Creutzig, Felix A1 - Hilaire, Jerome A1 - Jotzo, Frank A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Lamb, William F. A1 - Löschel, Andreas A1 - Müller-Hansen, Finn A1 - Nemet, Gregory F. A1 - Oei, Pao-Yu A1 - Sovacool, Benjamin K. A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Thomas, Sebastian A1 - Wiseman, John A1 - Minx, Jan C. T1 - Coal transitions - part 1 BT - a systematic map and review of case study learnings from regional, national, and local coal phase-out experiences JF - Environmental research letters N2 - A rapid coal phase-out is needed to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, but is hindered by serious challenges ranging from vested interests to the risks of social disruption. To understand how to organize a global coal phase-out, it is crucial to go beyond cost-effective climate mitigation scenarios and learn from the experience of previous coal transitions. Despite the relevance of the topic, evidence remains fragmented throughout different research fields, and not easily accessible. To address this gap, this paper provides a systematic map and comprehensive review of the literature on historical coal transitions. We use computer-assisted systematic mapping and review methods to chart and evaluate the available evidence on historical declines in coal production and consumption. We extracted a dataset of 278 case studies from 194 publications, covering coal transitions in 44 countries and ranging from the end of the 19th century until 2021. We find a relatively recent and rapidly expanding body of literature reflecting the growing importance of an early coal phase-out in scientific and political debates. Previous evidence has primarily focused on the United Kingdom, the United States, and Germany, while other countries that experienced large coal declines, like those in Eastern Europe, are strongly underrepresented. An increasing number of studies, mostly published in the last 5 years, has been focusing on China. Most of the countries successfully reducing coal dependency have undergone both demand-side and supply-side transitions. This supports the use of policy approaches targeting both demand and supply to achieve a complete coal phase-out. From a political economy perspective, our dataset highlights that most transitions are driven by rising production costs for coal, falling prices for alternative energies, or local environmental concerns, especially regarding air pollution. The main challenges for coal-dependent regions are structural change transformations, in particular for industry and labor. Rising unemployment is the most largely documented outcome in the sample. Policymakers at multiple levels are instrumental in facilitating coal transitions. They rely mainly on regulatory instruments to foster the transitions and compensation schemes or investment plans to deal with their transformative processes. Even though many models suggest that coal phase-outs are among the low-hanging fruits on the way to climate neutrality and meeting the international climate goals, our case studies analysis highlights the intricate political economy at work that needs to be addressed through well-designed and just policies. KW - climate change mitigation KW - coal transitions KW - evidence synthesis KW - political economy KW - systematic map Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1b58 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 11 PB - Institute of Physics Publishing (IOP) CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Diluiso, Francesca A1 - Annicchiarico, Barbara A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Minx, Jan Christoph T1 - Climate actions and macro-financial stability BT - the role of central banks JF - Journal of environmental economics and management N2 - Limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees C may pose threats to macroeconomic and financial stability. In an estimated Euro Area New Keynesian model with financial frictions and climate policy, we study the possible perils of a low-carbon transition and evaluate the role of monetary policy and financial regulation. We show that, even for very ambitious climate targets, transition costs are moderate along a timely and gradual mitigation pathway. Inflation volatility strongly increases for disorderly climate policy, demanding a strong monetary response by central banks. In reaction to an adverse financial shock originating in the fossil sector, a green quantitative easing policy can provide an effective stimulus to the economy, but its stabilizing properties do not significantly differ from those of market neutral asset purchase programs. A financial regulation, encouraging the decarbonization of the banks' balance sheets via ad hoc capital requirements, can significantly reduce the severity of a financial crisis, but prolongs the recovery phase. Our results suggest that the involvement of central banks in climate actions must be carefully designed to be in compliance with their mandate and to avoid unintended trade-offs. KW - Climate policy KW - Green transition KW - Monetary policy KW - Capital requirements KW - Green quantitative easing KW - Euro area Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102548 SN - 0095-0696 SN - 1096-0449 VL - 110 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Franks, Max A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias T1 - Pigou in the 21st century BT - a tribute on the occasion of the 100th anniversary of the publication of The Economics of Welfare JF - International tax and public finance N2 - The year 2020 marks the centennial of the publication of Arthur Cecil Pigou's magnum opus The Economics of Welfare. Pigou's pricing principles have had an enduring influence on the academic debate, with a widespread consensus having emerged among economists that Pigouvian taxes or subsidies are theoretically desirable, but politically infeasible. In this article, we revisit Pigou's contribution and argue that this consensus is somewhat spurious, particularly in two ways: (1) Economists are too quick to ignore the theoretical problems and subtleties that Pigouvian pricing still faces; (2) The wholesale skepticism concerning the political viability of Pigouvian pricing is at odds with its recent practical achievements. These two points are made by, first, outlining the theoretical and political challenges that include uncertainty about the social cost of carbon, the unclear relationship between the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness approaches, distributional concerns, fragmented ministerial responsibilities, an unstable tax base, commitment problems, lack of acceptance and trust between government and citizens as well as incomplete international cooperation. Secondly, we discuss the recent political success of Pigouvian pricing, as evidenced by the German government's 2019 climate policy reform and the EU's Green Deal. We conclude by presenting a research agenda for addressing the remaining barriers that need to be overcome to make Pigouvian pricing a common political practice. KW - Environmental economics KW - Climate change economics KW - Carbon pricing KW - Pigouvian taxation KW - Economic policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10797-020-09653-y SN - 0927-5940 SN - 1573-6970 VL - 28 IS - 5 SP - 1090 EP - 1121 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baldenius, Till A1 - Bernstein, Tobias A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - von Kleist-Retzow, Maximilian A1 - Koch, Nicolas T1 - Ordnungsrecht oder Preisinstrumente? BT - zur Verteilungswirkung von Klimaschutzmaßnahmen im Verkehr JF - Ifo-Schnelldienst Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/sd-2021-06-loeschel-etal-klimapolitik-verteilungswirkungen.pdf#page=4 SN - 0018-974X SN - 2700-8371 SN - 2199-4455 VL - 74 IS - 6 SP - 6 EP - 10 PB - Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung CY - München ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Roolfs, Christina T1 - Carbon pricing and revenue recycling BT - an overview of vertical and horizontal equity effects for Germany JF - CESifo forum Y1 - 2021 UR - https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/CESifo-Forum-2021-5-edenhofer-kalkuhl-roolfs-carbon-pricing-september.pdf SN - 2190-717X SN - 1615-245X VL - 22 IS - 5 SP - 10 EP - 14 PB - Ifo CY - Munich ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Singhal, Puja A1 - Pahle, Michael A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Sommer, Stephan A1 - Levesque, Antoine A1 - Berneiser, Jessica T1 - Beyond good faith BT - why evidence-based policy is necessary to decarbonize buildings cost-effectively JF - SSRN eLibrary / Social Science Research Network N2 - The ambitious climate targets set by industrialized nations worldwide cannot be met without decarbonizing the building stock. Using Germany as a case study, this paper takes stock of the extensive set of energy efficiency policies that are already in place and clarifies that they have been designed “in good faith” but lack in overall effectiveness as well as cost-efficiency in achieving these climate targets. We map out the market failures and behavioural considerations that are potential reasons for why realized energy savings fall below expectations and why the household adoption of energy-efficient and low-carbon technologies has remained low. We highlight the pressing need for data and modern empirical research to develop targeted and cost-effective policies seeking to correct these market failures. To this end, we identify some key research questions and identify gaps in the data required for evidence-based policy. KW - energy efficiency KW - decarbonization KW - housing sector KW - heat demand KW - evidence-based policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3947800 SN - 1556-5068 PB - SSRN - Elsevier CY - Rochester, NY ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Baert, By Stijn A1 - Neyt, Brecht A1 - Siedler, Thomas A1 - Tobback, Ilse A1 - Verhaest, Dieter T1 - Student internships and employment opportunities after graduation BT - a field experiment JF - Economics of education review N2 - Internships during tertiary education have become substantially more common over the past decades in many industrialised countries. This study examines the impact of a voluntary intra-curricular internship experience during university studies on the probability of being invited to a job interview. To estimate a causal relationship, we conducted a randomised field experiment in which we sent 1248 fictitious, but realistic, resumes to real job openings. We find that applicants with internship experience have, on average, a 12.6% higher probability of being invited to a job interview. KW - internship KW - hiring KW - field experiment KW - human capital KW - signalling Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev.2021.102141 SN - 0272-7757 VL - 83 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ackfeld, Viola A1 - Rohloff, Tobias A1 - Rzepka, Sylvi T1 - Increasing personal data contributions for the greater public good BT - a field experiment on an online education platform JF - Behavioural public policy N2 - Personal data increasingly serve as inputs to public goods. Like other types of contributions to public goods, personal data are likely to be underprovided. We investigate whether classical remedies to underprovision are also applicable to personal data and whether the privacy-sensitive nature of personal data must be additionally accounted for. In a randomized field experiment on a public online education platform, we prompt users to complete their profiles with personal information. Compared to a control message, we find that making public benefits salient increases the number of personal data contributions significantly. This effect is even stronger when additionally emphasizing privacy protection, especially for sensitive information. Our results further suggest that emphasis on both public benefits and privacy protection attracts personal data from a more diverse set of contributors. KW - field experiment KW - personal data KW - public good KW - privacy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1017/bpp.2021.39 SN - 2398-063X SN - 2398-0648 SP - 1 EP - 27 PB - Cambridge University Press CY - Cambridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Riahi, Keywan A1 - Hilaire, Jérôme A1 - Bosetti, Valentina A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Malik, Aman A1 - Nogueira, Larissa Pupo A1 - van der Zwaan, Bob A1 - van Ruijven, Bas A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - Weitzel, Matthias A1 - Longa, Francesco Dalla A1 - de Boer, Harmen-Sytze A1 - Emmerling, Johannes A1 - Fosse, Florian A1 - Fragkiadakis, Kostas A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Kishimoto, Paul Natsuo A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Paroussos, Leonidas A1 - Saygin, Deger A1 - Vrontisi, Zoi A1 - Luderer, Gunnar T1 - Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals JF - Environmental research letters N2 - The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets. KW - Paris Agreement KW - energy investments KW - mitigation policies KW - climate policy KW - integrated assessment modelling Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac09ae SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 7 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Cui, Ryna A1 - Dessens, Olivier A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - Emmerling, Johannes A1 - Morris, Jennifer Faye A1 - Fosse, Florian A1 - Fragkiadakis, Dimitris A1 - Fragkiadakis, Kostas A1 - Fragkos, Panagiotis A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Fujimori, Shinichiro A1 - Gernaat, David A1 - Guivarch, Céline A1 - Iyer, Gokul A1 - Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis A1 - Keppo, Ilkka A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Köberle, Alexandre A1 - Kolp, Peter A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Krüger, Christoph A1 - Leblanc, Florian A1 - Mittal, Shivika A1 - Paltsev, Sergey A1 - Rochedo, Pedro A1 - van Ruijven, Bas J. A1 - Sands, Ronald D. A1 - Sano, Fuminori A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Arroyo, Eveline Vasquez A1 - Wada, Kenichi A1 - Zakeri, Behnam T1 - Integrated assessment model diagnostics BT - key indicators and model evolution JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Integrated assessment models (IAMs) form a prime tool in informing about climate mitigation strategies. Diagnostic indicators that allow comparison across these models can help describe and explain differences in model projections. This increases transparency and comparability. Earlier, the IAM community has developed an approach to diagnose models (Kriegler (2015 Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 90 45–61)). Here we build on this, by proposing a selected set of well-defined indicators as a community standard, to systematically and routinely assess IAM behaviour, similar to metrics used for other modeling communities such as climate models. These indicators are the relative abatement index, emission reduction type index, inertia timescale, fossil fuel reduction, transformation index and cost per abatement value. We apply the approach to 17 IAMs, assessing both older as well as their latest versions, as applied in the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. The study shows that the approach can be easily applied and used to indentify key differences between models and model versions. Moreover, we demonstrate that this comparison helps to link model behavior to model characteristics and assumptions. We show that together, the set of six indicators can provide useful indication of the main traits of the model and can roughly indicate the general model behavior. The results also show that there is often a considerable spread across the models. Interestingly, the diagnostic values often change for different model versions, but there does not seem to be a distinct trend. KW - diagnostics KW - integrated assessment models KW - climate policy KW - Assessment Report IPCC KW - renewable energy KW - migration KW - AR6 Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abf964 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 5 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Riahi, Keywan A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Huppmann, Daniel A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Bosetti, Valentina A1 - Cabardos, Anique-Marie A1 - Deppermann, Andre A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - Frank, Stefan A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Fujimori, Shinichiro A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Hasegawa, Tomoko A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Paroussos, Leonidas A1 - Schaeffer, Roberto A1 - Weitzel, Matthias A1 - van der Zwaan, Bob A1 - Vrontisi, Zoi A1 - Longa, Francesco Dalla A1 - Després, Jacques A1 - Fosse, Florian A1 - Fragkiadakis, Kostas A1 - Gusti, Mykola A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Kishimoto, Paul A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Meinshausen, Malte A1 - Nogueira, Larissa Pupo A1 - Oshiro, Ken A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Rochedo, Pedro R. R. A1 - Ünlü, Gamze A1 - van Ruijven, Bas A1 - Takakura, Junya A1 - Tavoni, Massimo A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - Zakeri, Behnam T1 - Cost and attainability of meeting stringent climate targets without overshoot JF - Nature climate change N2 - Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change. The current scenarios, however, are criticized because they feature strategies with pronounced overshoot of the global temperature goal, requiring a long-term repair phase to draw temperatures down again through net-negative emissions. Some impacts might not be reversible. Hence, we explore a new set of net-zero CO2 emissions scenarios with limited overshoot. We show that upfront investments are needed in the near term for limiting temperature overshoot but that these would bring long-term economic gains. Our study further identifies alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the roles of different sectors and regions for balancing sources and sinks. Even without net-negative emissions, CO2 removal is important for accelerating near-term reductions and for providing an anthropogenic sink that can offset the residual emissions in sectors that are hard to abate. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01215-2 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 11 IS - 12 SP - 1063 EP - 1069 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wilson, Charlie A1 - Guivarch, Céline A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - van Ruijven, Bas A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Schwanitz, Valeria Jana A1 - Thompson, Erica L. T1 - Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation JF - Climatic change N2 - Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community. KW - process-based integrated assessment model KW - IAM KW - evaluation KW - climate mitigation Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03099-9 SN - 0165-0009 SN - 1573-1480 VL - 166 IS - 1-2 PB - Springer Science + Business Media B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - van Soest, Heleen L. A1 - Aleluia Reis, Lara A1 - Baptista, Luiz Bernardo A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Després, Jacques A1 - Drouet, Laurent A1 - den Elzen, Michel A1 - Fragkos, Panagiotis A1 - Fricko, Oliver A1 - Fujimori, Shinichiro A1 - Grant, Neil A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Iyer, Gokul A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Köberle, Alexandre C. A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Malik, Aman A1 - Mittal, Shivika A1 - Oshiro, Ken A1 - Riahi, Keywan A1 - Roelfsema, Mark A1 - van Ruijven, Bas A1 - Schaeffer, Roberto A1 - Silva Herran, Diego A1 - Tavoni, Massimo A1 - Ünlü, Gamze A1 - Vandyck, Toon A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. T1 - Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap JF - Nature communications N2 - Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2 °C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%–88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - climate-change policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26595-z N1 - Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-27969-7 VL - 12 IS - 1 PB - Nature Publishing Group UK CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Warszawski, Lila A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Lenton, Timothy M. A1 - Gaffney, Owen A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Klingenfeld, Daniel A1 - Koide, Ryu A1 - Costa, María Máñez A1 - Messner, Dirk A1 - Nakicenovic, Nebojsa A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim A1 - Schlosser, Peter A1 - Takeuchi, Kazuhiko A1 - van der Leeuw, Sander A1 - Whiteman, Gail A1 - Rockström, Johan T1 - All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C BT - a scenario appraisal JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range). KW - climate change KW - emissions scenarios KW - 1.5 ◦C KW - negative emissions Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec SN - 1748-9326 N1 - Corrigendum: 10.1088/1748-9326/acbf6a VL - 16 IS - 6 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schultes, Anselm A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Soergel, Bjoern A1 - Rogelj, Joeri A1 - Baumstark, Lavinia A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar A1 - Luderer, Gunnar T1 - Economic damages from on-going climate change imply deeper near-term emission cuts JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Pathways toward limiting global warming to well below 2 ∘C, as used by the IPCC in the Fifth Assessment Report, do not consider the climate impacts already occurring below 2 ∘C. Here we show that accounting for such damages significantly increases the near-term ambition of transformation pathways. We use econometric estimates of climate damages on GDP growth and explicitly model the uncertainty in the persistence time of damages. The Integrated Assessment Model we use includes the climate system and mitigation technology detail required to derive near-term policies. We find an optimal carbon price of $115 per tonne of CO2 in 2030. The long-term persistence of damages, while highly uncertain, is a main driver of the near-term carbon price. Accounting for damages on economic growth increases the gap between the currently pledged nationally determined contributions and the welfare-optimal 2030 emissions by two thirds, compared to pathways considering the 2 ∘C limit only. KW - climate change KW - climate mitigation KW - climate impacts KW - integrated assessment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac27ce SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 10 PB - IOP Publishing CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Orland, Andreas A1 - Rostam-Afschar, Davud T1 - Flexible work arrangements and precautionary behavior BT - Theory and experimental evidence JF - Journal of economic behavior & organization N2 - In the past years, work-time in many industries has become more flexible, opening up a new channel for intertemporal substitution: workers might, instead of saving, adjust their work-time to smooth consumption. To study this channel, we set up a two-period consumption/saving model with wage uncertainty. This extends the standard saving model by also allowing a worker to allocate a fixed time budget between two work-shifts. To test the comparative statics implied by these two different channels, we conduct a laboratory experiment. A novel feature of our experiments is that we tie income to a real-effort style task. In four treatments, we turn on and off the two channels for consumption smoothing: saving and time allocation. Our main finding is that savings are strictly positive for at least 85 percent of subjects. We find that a majority of subjects also uses time allocation to smooth consumption and use saving and time shifting as substitutes, though not perfect substitutes. Part of the observed heterogeneity of precautionary behavior can be explained by risk preferences and motivations different from expected utility maximization. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Precautionary saving KW - Labor supply KW - Intertemporal substitution KW - Experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jebo.2021.09.015 SN - 0167-2681 SN - 1879-1751 VL - 191 SP - 442 EP - 481 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Margaryan, Shushanik A1 - Paul, Annemarie A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - Does education affect attitudes towards immigration? JF - Journal of human resources N2 - Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel and exploiting the staggered implementation of a compulsory schooling reform in West Germany, this article finds that an additional year of schooling lowers the probability of being very concerned about immigration to Germany by around six percentage points (20 percent). Furthermore, our findings imply significant spillovers from maternal education to immigration attitudes of her offspring. While we find no evidence for returns to education within a range of labor market outcomes, higher social trust appears to be an important mechanism behind our findings. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.56.2.0318-9372R1 SN - 0022-166X SN - 1548-8004 VL - 56 IS - 2 SP - 446 EP - 479 PB - University of Wisconsin Press CY - Madison ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa A1 - Friedrichsen, Jana T1 - The leniency rule revisited BT - experiments on cartel formation with open communication JF - International journal of industrial organization N2 - The experimental literature on antitrust enforcement provides robust evidence that communication plays an important role for the formation and stability of cartels. We extend these studies through a design that distinguishes between innocuous communication and communication about a cartel, sanctioning only the latter. To this aim, we introduce a participant in the role of the competition authority, who is properly incentivized to judge the communication content and price setting behavior of the firms. Using this novel design, we revisit the question whether a leniency rule successfully destabilizes cartels. In contrast to existing experimental studies, we find that a leniency rule does not affect cartelization. We discuss potential explanations for this contrasting result. KW - cartel KW - judgment of communication KW - corporate leniency program KW - price competition KW - experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2021.102728 SN - 0167-7187 VL - 76 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Pietzcker, Robert C. A1 - Giannousakis, Anastasis A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Alternative carbon price trajectories can avoid excessive carbon removal JF - Nature communications N2 - The large majority of climate change mitigation scenarios that hold warming below 2 °C show high deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR), resulting in a peak-and-decline behavior in global temperature. This is driven by the assumption of an exponentially increasing carbon price trajectory which is perceived to be economically optimal for meeting a carbon budget. However, this optimality relies on the assumption that a finite carbon budget associated with a temperature target is filled up steadily over time. The availability of net carbon removals invalidates this assumption and therefore a different carbon price trajectory should be chosen. We show how the optimal carbon price path for remaining well below 2 °C limits CDR demand and analyze requirements for constructing alternatives, which may be easier to implement in reality. We show that warming can be held at well below 2 °C at much lower long-term economic effort and lower CDR deployment and therefore lower risks if carbon prices are high enough in the beginning to ensure target compliance, but increase at a lower rate after carbon neutrality has been reached. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - climate sciences KW - environmental sciences Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22211-2 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 12 IS - 1 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Felfe, Christina A1 - Kocher, Martin G. A1 - Rainer, Helmut A1 - Saurer, Judith A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - More opportunity, more cooperation? BT - the behavioral effects of birthright citizenship on immigrant youth JF - Journal of public economics N2 - Inequality of opportunity, particularly when overlaid with socioeconomic, ethnic, or cultural differences, may limit the scope of cooperation between individuals. A central question, then, is how to overcome such obstacles to cooperation. We study this question in the context of Germany, by asking whether the propensity of immigrant youth to cooperate with native peers was affected by a major integration reform: the introduction of birthright citizenship. Our unique setup exploits data from a large-scale lab-in-the-field experiment in a quasi-experimental evaluation framework. We find that the policy caused male, but not female, immigrants to significantly increase their cooperativeness toward natives. We show that the increase in out-group cooperation among immigrant boys is an outcome of more trust rather than a reflection of stronger other-regarding preferences towards natives. In exploring factors that may explain these behavioral effects, we present evidence that the policy also led to a near-closure of the educational achievement gap between young immigrant men and their native peers. Our results high -light that, through integration interventions, governments can modify prosocial behavior in a way that generates higher levels of efficiency in the interaction between social groups. KW - in-group favoritism KW - out-group discrimination KW - birthright citizenship KW - lab-in-the-field experiment KW - natural experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2021.104448 SN - 0047-2727 SN - 1879-2316 VL - 200 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Tübbicke, Stefan T1 - Design and Effectiveness of Start-Up Subsidies BT - Evidence from a Policy Reform in Germany T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - While a growing body of literature finds positive impacts of Start-Up Subsidies (SUS) on labor market outcomes of participants, little is known about how the design of these programs shapes their effectiveness and hence how to improve policy. As experimental variation in program design is unavailable, we exploit the 2011 reform of the current German SUS program for the unemployed which strengthened case-workers’ discretionary power, increased entry requirements and reduced monetary support. We estimate the impact of the reform on the program’s effectiveness using samples of participants and non-participants from before and after the reform. To control for time-constant unobserved heterogeneity as well as differential selection patterns based on observable characteristics over time, we combine Difference-in-Differences with inverse probability weighting using covariate balancing propensity scores. Holding participants’ observed characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions constant, the results suggest that the reform was successful in raising employment effects on average. As these findings may be contaminated by changes in selection patterns based on unobserved characteristics, we assess our results using simulation-based sensitivity analyses and find that our estimates are highly robust to changes in unobserved characteristics. Hence, the reform most likely had a positive impact on the effectiveness of the program, suggesting that increasing entry requirements and reducing support in-creased the program’s impacts while reducing the cost per participant. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 30 KW - Start-Up Subsidies KW - Institutions KW - Policy Reform KW - Difference-in-Differences Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-500056 SN - 2628-653X IS - 30 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Malik, Aman A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Luderer, Gunnar T1 - Climate policy accelerates structural changes in energy employment JF - Energy policy N2 - The employment implications of decarbonizing the energy sector have received far less attention than the technology dimension of the transition, although being of critical importance to policymakers. In this work, we adapt a methodology based on employment factors to project future changes in quantity and composition of direct energy supply jobs for two scenarios - (1) relatively weak emissions reductions as pledged in the nationally determined contributions (NDC) and (2) stringent reductions compatible with the 1.5 °C target. We find that in the near-term the 1.5°C-compatible scenario results in a net increase in jobs through gains in solar and wind jobs in construction, installation, and manufacturing, despite significant losses in coal fuel supply; eventually leading to a peak in total direct energy jobs in 2025. In the long run, improvements in labour productivity lead to a decrease of total direct energy employment compared to today, however, total jobs are still higher in a 1.5 °C than in an NDC scenario. Operation and maintenance jobs dominate future jobs, replacing fuel supply jobs. The results point to the need for active policies aimed at retraining, both inside and outside the renewable energy sector, to complement climate policies within the concept of a “just transition”. KW - energy supply KW - employment KW - just transition KW - political feasibility KW - mitigation pathways KW - integrated assessment models Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112642 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 159 PB - Elsevier Science CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Auer, Cornelia A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - Carlsen, Henrik A1 - Kok, Kasper A1 - Pedde, Simona A1 - Krey, Volker A1 - Müller, Boris T1 - Climate change scenario services BT - from science to facilitating action JF - One earth N2 - The goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C as set out in the Paris Agreement calls for a strategic assessment of societal pathways and policy strategies. Besides policy makers, new powerful actors from the private sector, including finance, have stepped up to engage in forward-looking assessments of a Paris-compliant and climate-resilient future. Climate change scenarios have addressed this demand by providing scientific insights on the possible pathways ahead to limit warming in line with the Paris climate goal. Despite the increased interest, the potential of climate change scenarios has not been fully unleashed, mostly due to a lack of an intermediary service that provides guidance and access to climate change scenarios. This perspective presents the concept of a climate change scenario service, its components, and a prototypical implementation to overcome this shortcoming aiming to make scenarios accessible to a broader audience of societal actors and decision makers. KW - climate change scenarios KW - climate change scenario services KW - climate services KW - co-production KW - visualization KW - capacity building KW - mitigation scenarios KW - adaptation scenarios KW - impact projections Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.07.015 SN - 2590-3322 VL - 4 IS - 8 SP - 1074 EP - 1082 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Eydam, Ulrich A1 - Gabriadze, Irakli ED - Moldogaziev, Tima T. ED - Brewer, Gene A. ED - Kellough, J. E. ED - Durning, Danny W. T1 - Legal institutions, financial liberalization and financial development in transition economies T2 - Public policy and politics in Georgia : lessons from post-Soviet transition Y1 - 2021 SN - 978-3-8382-1535-8 SN - 978-3-8382-7535-2 SP - 221 EP - 256 PB - ibidem CY - Stuttgart ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Duan, Hongbo A1 - Zhou, Sheng A1 - Jiang, Kejun A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Harmsen, Mathijs A1 - Kriegler, Elmar A1 - van Vuuren, Detlef P. A1 - Wang, Shouyang A1 - Fujimori, Shinichiro A1 - Tavoni, Massimo A1 - Ming, Xi A1 - Keramidas, Kimon A1 - Iyer, Gokul A1 - Edmonds, James T1 - Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit JF - Science N2 - Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China’s emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the “no policy” case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China’s accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba8767 SN - 1095-9203 SN - 0036-8075 VL - 372 IS - 6540 SP - 378 EP - 385 PB - American Association for the Advancement of Science CY - Washington, DC ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Petrishcheva, Vasilisa A1 - Riener, Gerhard A1 - Schildberg-Hörisch, Hannah T1 - Loss aversion in social image concerns JF - Experimental economics : a journal of the Economic Science Association N2 - Does loss aversion apply to social image concerns? In a laboratory experiment, we first induce social image in a relevant domain, intelligence, through public ranking. In a second stage, subjects experience a change in rank and are offered scope for lying to improve their final, also publicly reported rank. Subjects who care about social image and experience a decline in rank lie more than those experiencing gains. Moreover, we document a discontinuity in lying behavior when moving from rank losses to gains. Our results are in line with loss aversion in social image concerns. KW - loss aversion KW - social image concerns KW - lying behavior KW - laboratory experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10683-022-09782-7 SN - 1386-4157 SN - 1573-6938 VL - 26 IS - 3 SP - 622 EP - 645 PB - Springer Science + Business Media B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Tübbicke, Stefan T1 - Der Gründungszuschuss für Arbeitslose nach der Reform 2011 BT - ein Erfolg wie seine Vorgänger JF - IAB-Kurzbericht : aktuelle Analysen aus dem Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung N2 - Mit der Reform des Gründungszuschusses im Jahr 2011 wurden die Rahmenbedingungen der Gründungsförderung für Arbeitslose im Sozialgesetzbuch III umfassend reformiert und die Förderzahlen reduzierten sich drastisch. Insgesamt ist das Arbeitsmarktinstrument weiterhin ein Erfolg: Die meisten Geförderten sind auch knapp 3,5 Jahre nach der Gründung noch selbstständig und etwa ein Drittel von ihnen hat mindestens einen Beschäftigen. Von denjenigen, die ihre Selbstständigkeit inzwischen beendet haben, sind die meisten sozialversicherungspflichtig beschäftigt. Damit haben Geförderte eine deutlich höhere Beschäftigungsquote als vergleichbare Personen ohne diese Förderung. Auch ihre monatlichen Nettoverdienste sowie ihre Jobzufriedenheit sind höher. Verbesserungspotenzial gibt es allerdings bei der sozialen Absicherung: Geförderte zahlen seltener in eine Rentenversicherung oder in die Arbeitslosenversicherung ein und sind mit ihrer sozialen Absicherung unzufriedener als vergleichbare Personen. Y1 - 2021 UR - https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2021/kb2021-28.pdf SN - 0942-167X VL - 28 PB - IAB CY - Nürnberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Fossen, Frank M. A1 - Kritikos, Alexander T1 - Personality characteristics and the decision to hire JF - Industrial and corporate change N2 - As the policy debate on entrepreneurship increasingly centers on firm growth in terms of job creation, it is important to understand whether the personality of entrepreneurs drives the first hiring in their firms. Using the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we analyze to what extent personality traits influence the probability of becoming an employer. The results indicate that personality matters. Risk tolerance unfolds the strongest influence on hiring, shortening the time until entrepreneurs hire their first employee; the effect size of a one-standard-deviation increase in risk tolerance is similar to that of having a university degree. Moreover, individuals who are more open to experience, more conscientious, and more trustful are more likely to hire upon establishing their business. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtab062 SN - 0960-6491 SN - 1464-3650 VL - 31 IS - 3 SP - 736 EP - 761 PB - Oxford University Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Belitski, Maksim A1 - Guenther, Christina A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Thurik, Adriaan R. T1 - Economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on entrepreneurship and small businesses JF - Small business economics N2 - The existential threat to small businesses, based on their crucial role in the economy, is behind the plethora of scholarly studies in 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Examining the 15 contributions of the special issue on the “Economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on entrepreneurship and small businesses,” the paper comprises four parts: a systematic review of the literature on the effect on entrepreneurship and small businesses; a discussion of four literature strands based on this review; an overview of the contributions in this special issue; and some ideas for post-pandemic economic research. KW - small businesses KW - entrepreneurs KW - COVID-19 pandemic KW - economic effects Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11187-021-00544-y SN - 0921-898X SN - 1573-0913 VL - 58 IS - 2 SP - 593 EP - 609 PB - Springer Science + Business Media B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Marcus, Jan A1 - Siedler, Thomas A1 - Ziebarth, Nicolas R. T1 - The Long-Run Effects of Sports Club Vouchers for Primary School Children T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Starting in 2009, the German state of Saxony distributed sports club membership vouchers among all 33,000 third graders in the state. The policy’s objective was to encourage them to develop a long-term habit of exercising. In 2018, we carried out a large register-based survey among several cohorts in Saxony and two neighboring states. Our difference-in-differences estimations show that, even after a decade, awareness of the voucher program was significantly higher in the treatment group. We also find that youth received and redeemed the vouchers. However, we do not find significant short- or long-term effects on sports club membership, physical activity, overweightness, or motor skills. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 34 KW - physical activity KW - voucher KW - primary school KW - obesity KW - habit formation KW - objective health measures KW - school health examinations KW - windfall gains KW - crowding out KW - taxpayer subsidies Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508978 SN - 2628-653X IS - 34 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Gohl, Niklas T1 - Gentrification and Affordable Housing Policies T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We use a quantitative spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the distributional and welfare impacts of a recent temporary rent control policy in Berlin, Germany. We calibrate the model to key features of Berlin’s housing market, in particular the recent gentrification of inner city locations. As expected, gentrification benefits rich homeowners, while poor renter households lose. Our counterfactual analysis mimicks the rent control policy. We find that this policy reduces welfare for rich and poor households and in fact, the percentage change in welfare is largest for the poorest households. We also study alternative affordable housing policies such as subsidies and re-zoning policies, which are better suited to address the adverse consequences of gentrification. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 39 KW - rent control KW - housing market KW - gentrification Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-529300 SN - 2628-653X IS - 39 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Wittbrodt, Linda T1 - Did the Minimum Wage Reduce the Gender Wage Gap in Germany? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In many countries, women are over-represented among low-wage employees, which is why a wage floor could benefit them particularly. Following this notion, we analyse the impact of the German minimum wage introduction in 2015 on the gender wage gap. Germany poses an interesting case study in this context, since it has a rather high gender wage gap and set the minimum wage at a relatively high level, affecting more than four million employees. Based on individual data from the Structure of Earnings Survey, containing information for over one million employees working in 60,000 firms, we use a difference-in- difference framework that exploits regional differences in the bite of the minimum wage. We find a significant negative effect of the minimum wage on the regional gender wage gap. Between 2014 and 2018, the gap at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution was reduced by 4.6 percentage points (or 32%) in regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage compared to less affected regions. For the gap at the 25th percentile, the effect still amounted to -18%, while for the mean it was smaller (-11%) and not particularly robust. We thus find that the minimum wage can indeed reduce gender wage disparities. While the effect is highest for the low-paid, it also reaches up into higher parts of the wage distribution. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 40 KW - Minimum Wage KW - Gender Wage Gap KW - Regional Bite Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-530464 SN - 2628-653X IS - 40 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Graeber, Daniel A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Seebauer, Johannes T1 - COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic, and of the government-mandated measures to contain its spread, affect the self-employed – particularly women – in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are 35% more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. Conversely, we do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, i.e. the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 27 KW - self-employed KW - COVID-19 KW - income KW - gender KW - representative real-time survey data KW - decomposition methods Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498108 SN - 2628-653X IS - 27 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hänsel, Martin C. A1 - Franks, Max A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Optimal carbon taxation and horizontal equity BT - A welfare-theoretic approach with application to German household data T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We develop a model of optimal carbon taxation and redistribution taking into account horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we then investigate analytically how horizontal equity is considered in the social welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal. Our results show that energy-intensive households should receive more redistributive resources than energy-efficient households if and only if social inequality aversion is sufficiently high. We further find that redistribution of carbon tax revenue via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Equal per-capita transfers do not suffer from informational problems, but increase mitigation costs by around 15 percent compared to the first- best for unity inequality aversion. Adding renewable energy subsidies or non-linear energy subsidies, reduces mitigation costs further without relying on observability of households’ energy efficiency. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 28 KW - carbon price KW - horizontal equity KW - redistribution KW - renewable energy subsidies KW - climate policy KW - just transition Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498128 SN - 2628-653X IS - 28 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Felfe, Christina A1 - Kocher, Martin A1 - Rainer, Helmut A1 - Saurer, Judith A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - More Opportunity, More Cooperation? BT - The Behavioral Effects of Birthright Citizenship on Immigrant Youth T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Inequality of opportunity, particularly when overlaid with socioeconomic, ethnic, or cultural differences, may limit the scope of cooperation between individuals. A central question, then, is how to overcome such obstacles to cooperation. We study this question in the context of Germany, by asking whether the propensity of immigrant youth to cooperate with native peers was affected by a major integration reform: the introduction of birthright citizenship. Our unique setup exploits data from a large-scale lab-in-the-field experiment in a quasi-experimental evaluation framework. We find that the policy caused male, but not female, immigrants to significantly increase their cooperativeness toward natives. We show that the increase in out-group cooperation among immigrant boys is an outcome of more trust rather than a reflection of stronger other- regarding preferences towards natives. In exploring factors that may explain these behavioral effects, we present evidence that the policy also led to a near-closure of the educational achievement gap between young immigrant men and their native peers. Our results highlight that, through integration interventions, governments can modify prosocial behavior in a way that generates higher levels of efficiency in the interaction between social groups. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 32 Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508643 SN - 2628-653X IS - 32 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Eydam, Ulrich T1 - The Distributional Implications of Climate Policies Under Uncertainty T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Promoting the decarbonization of economic activity through climate policies raises many questions. From a macroeconomic perspective, it is important to understand how these policies perform under uncertainty, how they affect short-run dynamics and to what extent they have distributional effects. In addition, uncertainties directly associated with climate policies, such as uncertainty about the carbon budget or emission intensities, become relevant aspects. We study the implications of emission reduction schemes within a Two-Agent New-Keynesian (TANK) model. This quantitative exercise, based on data for the German economy, provides various insights. In the light of frictions and fluctuations, compared to other instruments, a carbon price (i.e. tax) is associated with lower volatility in output and consumption. In terms of aggregate welfare, price instruments are found to be preferable. Conditional on the distribution of revenues from climate policies, quantity instruments can exert regressive effects, posing a larger economic loss on wealth-poor households, whereas price instruments are moderately progressive. Finally, we find that unexpected changes in climate policies can induce substantial aggregate adjustments. With uncertainty about the carbon budget, the costs of adjustment are larger under quantity instruments. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 33 KW - Macroeconomic Dynamics KW - Environmental Policy KW - Inequality KW - Policy Design Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508950 SN - 2628-653X IS - 33 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hinz, Julian A1 - Stammann, Amrei A1 - Wanner, Joschka T1 - State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a constant rate, but it has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution, invalidating inference even in situations where the bias appears to be small. Thus, we propose two different bias-corrected estimators. Monte Carlo simulations confirm their desirable statistical properties. We apply these estimators in a reassessment of the most commonly studied determinants of the extensive margin of trade. Both true state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity contribute considerably to trade persistence and taking this persistence into account matters significantly in identifying the effects of trade policies on the extensive margin. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 36 KW - dynamic binary choice KW - extensive margin KW - high-dimensional fixed effects KW - incidental parameter bias correction KW - trade policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-511919 SN - 2628-653X ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Schiersch, Alexander A1 - Stiel, Caroline T1 - The productivity puzzle in business services T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In Germany, the productivity of professional services, a sector dominated by micro and small firms, declined by 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. This productivity decline also holds true for professional services in other European countries. Using a German firm-level dataset of 700,000 observations between 2003 and 2017, we analyze this largely uncovered phenomenon among professional services, the 4th largest sector in the EU15 business economy, which provide important intermediate services for the rest of the economy. We show that changes in the value chain explain about half of the decline and the increase in part-time employment is a further minor part of the decline. In contrast to expectations, the entry of micro and small firms, despite their lower productivity levels, is not responsible for the decline. We also cannot confirm the conjecture that weakening competition allows unproductive firms to remain in the market. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 37 KW - business services KW - labor productivity KW - productivity slowdown Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-514536 SN - 2628-653X IS - 37 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Späth, Maximilian T1 - It’s me again… Ask Avoidance and the Dynamics of Charitable Giving T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Charities typically ask potential donors repeatedly for a donation. These repeated requests might trigger avoidance behavior. Considering that, this paper analyzes the impact of offering an ask avoidance option on charitable giving. In a proposed utility framework, the avoidance option decreases the social pressure to donate. At the same time, it induces feelings of gratitude toward the fundraiser, which may lead to a reciprocal increase in donations. The results of a lab experiment designed to disentangle the two channels show no negative impact of the option to avoid repeated asking on donations. Instead, the full model indicates a positive impact of the reciprocity channel. This finding suggests that it might be beneficial for charities to introduce an ask avoidance option during high-frequency fundraising campaigns. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 38 KW - Charitable giving KW - Repeated request KW - Ask avoidance KW - Experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-520991 SN - 2628-653X IS - 38 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kotz, Maximilian A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Stechemesser, Annika A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth JF - Nature climate change N2 - Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate–economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models. KW - Climate change KW - Climate-change impacts KW - Economics KW - Environmental economics KW - Environmental impact Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 11 IS - 4 SP - 319 EP - 325 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Luderer, Gunnar A1 - Madeddu, Silvia A1 - Merfort, Leon A1 - Ueckerdt, Falko A1 - Pehl, Michaja A1 - Pietzcker, Robert C. A1 - Rottoli, Marianna A1 - Schreyer, Felix A1 - Bauer, Nico A1 - Baumstark, Lavinia A1 - Bertram, Christoph A1 - Dirnaichner, Alois A1 - Humpenöder, Florian A1 - Levesque, Antoine A1 - Popp, Alexander A1 - Rodrigues, Renato A1 - Strefler, Jessica A1 - Kriegler, Elmar T1 - Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios JF - Nature energy N2 - Cost degression in photovoltaics, wind-power and battery storage has been faster than previously anticipated. In the future, climate policy to limit global warming to 1.5–2 °C will make carbon-based fuels increasingly scarce and expensive. Here we show that further progress in solar- and wind-power technology along with carbon pricing to reach the Paris Climate targets could make electricity cheaper than carbon-based fuels. In combination with demand-side innovation, for instance in e-mobility and heat pumps, this is likely to induce a fundamental transformation of energy systems towards a dominance of electricity-based end uses. In a 1.5 °C scenario with limited availability of bioenergy and carbon dioxide removal, electricity could account for 66% of final energy by mid-century, three times the current levels and substantially higher than in previous climate policy scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The lower production of bioenergy in our high-electrification scenarios markedly reduces energy-related land and water requirements. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - energy modelling KW - renewable energy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00937-z SN - 2058-7546 N1 - Corrigendum: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-022-01000-1 VL - 7 IS - 1 SP - 32 EP - 42 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - BOOK ED - Nanz, Patrizia ED - Lawrence, Mark ED - Renn, Ortwin ED - Meyer, Jakob T1 - Klimaschutz BT - Wissen und Handeln T3 - Schriftenreihen ; Band 10672 Y1 - 2021 SN - 978-3-7425-0672-6 PB - bpb, Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung CY - Bonn ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Graeber, Daniel A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Seebauer, Johannes T1 - COVID-19 BT - a crisis of the female self-employed JF - Journal of population economics N2 - We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic and the government-mandated measures to contain its spread affect the self-employed — particularly women — in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are about one-third more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. We do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, e.g., the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship. KW - self-employed KW - COVID-19 KW - income KW - gender KW - representative real-time survey data KW - decomposition methods Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00849-y SN - 0933-1433 SN - 1432-1475 VL - 34 IS - 4 SP - 1141 EP - 1187 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - von Schneidemesser, Erika A1 - Mar, Kathleen A. A1 - Lawrence, Mark T1 - Klimawandel und Luftverschmutzung JF - Klimaschutz: Wissen und Handeln Y1 - 2021 SN - 978-3-7425-0672-6 SP - 119 EP - 133 PB - bpb, Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung CY - Berlin ER -