TY - RPRT A1 - Šedová, Barbora A1 - Čizmaziová, Lucia A1 - Cook, Athene T1 - A meta-analysis of climate migration literature T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The large literature that aims to find evidence of climate migration delivers mixed findings. This meta-regression analysis i) summarizes direct links between adverse climatic events and migration, ii) maps patterns of climate migration, and iii) explains the variation in outcomes. Using a set of limited dependent variable models, we meta-analyze thus-far the most comprehensive sample of 3,625 estimates from 116 original studies and produce novel insights on climate migration. We find that extremely high temperatures and drying conditions increase migration. We do not find a significant effect of sudden-onset events. Climate migration is most likely to emerge due to contemporaneous events, to originate in rural areas and to take place in middle-income countries, internally, to cities. The likelihood to become trapped in affected areas is higher for women and in low-income countries, particularly in Africa. We uniquely quantify how pitfalls typical for the broader empirical climate impact literature affect climate migration findings. We also find evidence of different publication biases. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 29 KW - migration KW - climate change KW - meta-analysis Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-499827 SN - 2628-653X IS - 29 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Graeber, Daniel A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Seebauer, Johannes T1 - COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We investigate how the economic consequences of the pandemic, and of the government-mandated measures to contain its spread, affect the self-employed – particularly women – in Germany. For our analysis, we use representative, real-time survey data in which respondents were asked about their situation during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings indicate that among the self-employed, who generally face a higher likelihood of income losses due to COVID-19 than employees, women are 35% more likely to experience income losses than their male counterparts. Conversely, we do not find a comparable gender gap among employees. Our results further suggest that the gender gap among the self-employed is largely explained by the fact that women disproportionately work in industries that are more severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Our analysis of potential mechanisms reveals that women are significantly more likely to be impacted by government-imposed restrictions, i.e. the regulation of opening hours. We conclude that future policy measures intending to mitigate the consequences of such shocks should account for this considerable variation in economic hardship. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 27 KW - self-employed KW - COVID-19 KW - income KW - gender KW - representative real-time survey data KW - decomposition methods Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498108 SN - 2628-653X IS - 27 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Tübbicke, Stefan T1 - Design and Effectiveness of Start-Up Subsidies BT - Evidence from a Policy Reform in Germany T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - While a growing body of literature finds positive impacts of Start-Up Subsidies (SUS) on labor market outcomes of participants, little is known about how the design of these programs shapes their effectiveness and hence how to improve policy. As experimental variation in program design is unavailable, we exploit the 2011 reform of the current German SUS program for the unemployed which strengthened case-workers’ discretionary power, increased entry requirements and reduced monetary support. We estimate the impact of the reform on the program’s effectiveness using samples of participants and non-participants from before and after the reform. To control for time-constant unobserved heterogeneity as well as differential selection patterns based on observable characteristics over time, we combine Difference-in-Differences with inverse probability weighting using covariate balancing propensity scores. Holding participants’ observed characteristics as well as macroeconomic conditions constant, the results suggest that the reform was successful in raising employment effects on average. As these findings may be contaminated by changes in selection patterns based on unobserved characteristics, we assess our results using simulation-based sensitivity analyses and find that our estimates are highly robust to changes in unobserved characteristics. Hence, the reform most likely had a positive impact on the effectiveness of the program, suggesting that increasing entry requirements and reducing support in-creased the program’s impacts while reducing the cost per participant. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 30 KW - Start-Up Subsidies KW - Institutions KW - Policy Reform KW - Difference-in-Differences Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-500056 SN - 2628-653X IS - 30 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Caliendo, Marco A1 - Wittbrodt, Linda T1 - Did the Minimum Wage Reduce the Gender Wage Gap in Germany? T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In many countries, women are over-represented among low-wage employees, which is why a wage floor could benefit them particularly. Following this notion, we analyse the impact of the German minimum wage introduction in 2015 on the gender wage gap. Germany poses an interesting case study in this context, since it has a rather high gender wage gap and set the minimum wage at a relatively high level, affecting more than four million employees. Based on individual data from the Structure of Earnings Survey, containing information for over one million employees working in 60,000 firms, we use a difference-in- difference framework that exploits regional differences in the bite of the minimum wage. We find a significant negative effect of the minimum wage on the regional gender wage gap. Between 2014 and 2018, the gap at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution was reduced by 4.6 percentage points (or 32%) in regions that were strongly affected by the minimum wage compared to less affected regions. For the gap at the 25th percentile, the effect still amounted to -18%, while for the mean it was smaller (-11%) and not particularly robust. We thus find that the minimum wage can indeed reduce gender wage disparities. While the effect is highest for the low-paid, it also reaches up into higher parts of the wage distribution. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 40 KW - Minimum Wage KW - Gender Wage Gap KW - Regional Bite Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-530464 SN - 2628-653X IS - 40 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Borck, Rainald A1 - Gohl, Niklas T1 - Gentrification and Affordable Housing Policies T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We use a quantitative spatial equilibrium model to evaluate the distributional and welfare impacts of a recent temporary rent control policy in Berlin, Germany. We calibrate the model to key features of Berlin’s housing market, in particular the recent gentrification of inner city locations. As expected, gentrification benefits rich homeowners, while poor renter households lose. Our counterfactual analysis mimicks the rent control policy. We find that this policy reduces welfare for rich and poor households and in fact, the percentage change in welfare is largest for the poorest households. We also study alternative affordable housing policies such as subsidies and re-zoning policies, which are better suited to address the adverse consequences of gentrification. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 39 KW - rent control KW - housing market KW - gentrification Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-529300 SN - 2628-653X IS - 39 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Ludolph, Lars A1 - Šedová, Barbora T1 - Global food prices, local weather and migration in Sub-Saharan Africa T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In this paper, we study the effect of exogenous global crop price changes on migration from agricultural and non-agricultural households in Sub-Saharan Africa. We show that, similar to the effect of positive local weather shocks, the effect of a locally-relevant global crop price increase on household out-migration depends on the initial household wealth. Higher international producer prices relax the budget constraint of poor agricultural households and facilitate migration. The order of magnitude of a standardized price effect is approx. one third of the standardized effect of a local weather shock. Unlike positive weather shocks, which mostly facilitate internal rural-urban migration, positive income shocks through rising producer prices only increase migration to neighboring African countries, likely due to the simultaneous decrease in real income in nearby urban areas. Finally, we show that while higher producer prices induce conflict, conflict does not play a role for the household decision to send a member as a labor migrant. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 26 KW - labour migration KW - food prices KW - climate KW - Africa Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-494946 SN - 2628-653X IS - 26 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Graeber, Daniel A1 - Schikora, Felicitas T1 - Hate is too great a burden to bear BT - Hate crimes and the mental health of refugees T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Against a background of increasing violence against non-natives, we estimate the effect of hate crime on refugees’ mental health in Germany. For this purpose, we combine two datasets: administrative records on xenophobic crime against refugee shelters by the Federal Criminal Office and the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Survey of Refugees. We apply a regression discontinuity in time design to estimate the effect of interest. Our results indicate that hate crime has a substantial negative effect on several mental health indicators, including the Mental Component Summary score and the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 score. The effects are stronger for refugees with closer geographic proximity to the focal hate crime and refugees with low country-specific human capital. While the estimated effect is only transitory, we argue that negative mental health shocks during the critical period after arrival have important long-term consequences. Keywords: Mental health, hate crime, migration, refugees, human capital. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 31 KW - mental health KW - hate crime KW - migration KW - refugees KW - human capital Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-507972 SN - 2628-653X IS - 31 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Späth, Maximilian T1 - It’s me again… Ask Avoidance and the Dynamics of Charitable Giving T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Charities typically ask potential donors repeatedly for a donation. These repeated requests might trigger avoidance behavior. Considering that, this paper analyzes the impact of offering an ask avoidance option on charitable giving. In a proposed utility framework, the avoidance option decreases the social pressure to donate. At the same time, it induces feelings of gratitude toward the fundraiser, which may lead to a reciprocal increase in donations. The results of a lab experiment designed to disentangle the two channels show no negative impact of the option to avoid repeated asking on donations. Instead, the full model indicates a positive impact of the reciprocity channel. This finding suggests that it might be beneficial for charities to introduce an ask avoidance option during high-frequency fundraising campaigns. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 38 KW - Charitable giving KW - Repeated request KW - Ask avoidance KW - Experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-520991 SN - 2628-653X IS - 38 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Felfe, Christina A1 - Kocher, Martin A1 - Rainer, Helmut A1 - Saurer, Judith A1 - Siedler, Thomas T1 - More Opportunity, More Cooperation? BT - The Behavioral Effects of Birthright Citizenship on Immigrant Youth T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Inequality of opportunity, particularly when overlaid with socioeconomic, ethnic, or cultural differences, may limit the scope of cooperation between individuals. A central question, then, is how to overcome such obstacles to cooperation. We study this question in the context of Germany, by asking whether the propensity of immigrant youth to cooperate with native peers was affected by a major integration reform: the introduction of birthright citizenship. Our unique setup exploits data from a large-scale lab-in-the-field experiment in a quasi-experimental evaluation framework. We find that the policy caused male, but not female, immigrants to significantly increase their cooperativeness toward natives. We show that the increase in out-group cooperation among immigrant boys is an outcome of more trust rather than a reflection of stronger other- regarding preferences towards natives. In exploring factors that may explain these behavioral effects, we present evidence that the policy also led to a near-closure of the educational achievement gap between young immigrant men and their native peers. Our results highlight that, through integration interventions, governments can modify prosocial behavior in a way that generates higher levels of efficiency in the interaction between social groups. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 32 Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508643 SN - 2628-653X IS - 32 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hänsel, Martin C. A1 - Franks, Max A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Edenhofer, Ottmar T1 - Optimal carbon taxation and horizontal equity BT - A welfare-theoretic approach with application to German household data T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We develop a model of optimal carbon taxation and redistribution taking into account horizontal equity concerns by considering heterogeneous energy efficiencies. By deriving first- and second-best rules for policy instruments including carbon taxes, transfers and energy subsidies, we then investigate analytically how horizontal equity is considered in the social welfare maximizing tax structure. We calibrate the model to German household data and a 30 percent emission reduction goal. Our results show that energy-intensive households should receive more redistributive resources than energy-efficient households if and only if social inequality aversion is sufficiently high. We further find that redistribution of carbon tax revenue via household-specific transfers is the first-best policy. Equal per-capita transfers do not suffer from informational problems, but increase mitigation costs by around 15 percent compared to the first- best for unity inequality aversion. Adding renewable energy subsidies or non-linear energy subsidies, reduces mitigation costs further without relying on observability of households’ energy efficiency. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 28 KW - carbon price KW - horizontal equity KW - redistribution KW - renewable energy subsidies KW - climate policy KW - just transition Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-498128 SN - 2628-653X IS - 28 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Hinz, Julian A1 - Stammann, Amrei A1 - Wanner, Joschka T1 - State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of Trade T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a constant rate, but it has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution, invalidating inference even in situations where the bias appears to be small. Thus, we propose two different bias-corrected estimators. Monte Carlo simulations confirm their desirable statistical properties. We apply these estimators in a reassessment of the most commonly studied determinants of the extensive margin of trade. Both true state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity contribute considerably to trade persistence and taking this persistence into account matters significantly in identifying the effects of trade policies on the extensive margin. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 36 KW - dynamic binary choice KW - extensive margin KW - high-dimensional fixed effects KW - incidental parameter bias correction KW - trade policy Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-511919 SN - 2628-653X ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Eydam, Ulrich T1 - The Distributional Implications of Climate Policies Under Uncertainty T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Promoting the decarbonization of economic activity through climate policies raises many questions. From a macroeconomic perspective, it is important to understand how these policies perform under uncertainty, how they affect short-run dynamics and to what extent they have distributional effects. In addition, uncertainties directly associated with climate policies, such as uncertainty about the carbon budget or emission intensities, become relevant aspects. We study the implications of emission reduction schemes within a Two-Agent New-Keynesian (TANK) model. This quantitative exercise, based on data for the German economy, provides various insights. In the light of frictions and fluctuations, compared to other instruments, a carbon price (i.e. tax) is associated with lower volatility in output and consumption. In terms of aggregate welfare, price instruments are found to be preferable. Conditional on the distribution of revenues from climate policies, quantity instruments can exert regressive effects, posing a larger economic loss on wealth-poor households, whereas price instruments are moderately progressive. Finally, we find that unexpected changes in climate policies can induce substantial aggregate adjustments. With uncertainty about the carbon budget, the costs of adjustment are larger under quantity instruments. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 33 KW - Macroeconomic Dynamics KW - Environmental Policy KW - Inequality KW - Policy Design Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508950 SN - 2628-653X IS - 33 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Amann, Erwin A1 - Rzepka, Sylvi T1 - The Effect of Goal-Setting Prompts in a Blended Learning Environment BT - Evidence from a Field Experiment T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - We investigate how inviting students to set task-based goals affects usage of an online learning platform and course performance. We design and implement a randomized field experiment in a large mandatory economics course with blended learning elements. The low-cost treatment induces students to use the online learning system more often, more intensively, and to begin earlier with exam preparation. Treated students perform better in the course than the control group: they are 18.8% (0.20 SD) more likely to pass the exam and earn 6.7% (0.19 SD) more points on the exam. There is no evidence that treated students spend significantly more time, rather they tend to shift to more productive learning methods. The heterogeneity analysis suggests that higher treatment effects are associated with higher levels of behavioral bias but also with poor early course behavior. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 25 KW - natural field experiment KW - blended learning KW - behavioral economics KW - goal-setting Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-493476 SN - 2628-653X N1 - The trial is registered in the AEA RCT registry, RCT ID AEARCTR-28790 (https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.2928-1.0). IS - 25 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Andres, Maximilian A1 - Bruttel, Lisa Verena A1 - Friedrichsen, Jana T1 - The Leniency Rule Revisited: Experiments on Cartel Formation with Open Communication T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - The experimental literature on antitrust enforcement provides robust evidence that communication plays an important role for the formation and stability of cartels. We extend these studies through a design that distinguishes between innocuous communication and communication about a cartel, sanctioning only the latter. To this aim, we introduce a participant in the role of the competition authority, who is properly incentivized to judge communication content and price setting behavior of the firms. Using this novel design, we revisit the question whether a leniency rule successfully destabilizes cartels. In contrast to existing experimental studies, we find that a leniency rule does not affect cartelization. We discuss potential explanations for this contrasting result. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 24 KW - cartel KW - judgment of communication KW - corporate leniency program KW - price competition KW - experiment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-491696 SN - 2628-653X N1 - This project, including the design and hypotheses, was preregistered at OSF before data collection had started (osf.io/ubhz8). IS - 24 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Marcus, Jan A1 - Siedler, Thomas A1 - Ziebarth, Nicolas R. T1 - The Long-Run Effects of Sports Club Vouchers for Primary School Children T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Starting in 2009, the German state of Saxony distributed sports club membership vouchers among all 33,000 third graders in the state. The policy’s objective was to encourage them to develop a long-term habit of exercising. In 2018, we carried out a large register-based survey among several cohorts in Saxony and two neighboring states. Our difference-in-differences estimations show that, even after a decade, awareness of the voucher program was significantly higher in the treatment group. We also find that youth received and redeemed the vouchers. However, we do not find significant short- or long-term effects on sports club membership, physical activity, overweightness, or motor skills. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 34 KW - physical activity KW - voucher KW - primary school KW - obesity KW - habit formation KW - objective health measures KW - school health examinations KW - windfall gains KW - crowding out KW - taxpayer subsidies Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-508978 SN - 2628-653X IS - 34 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Kritikos, Alexander A1 - Schiersch, Alexander A1 - Stiel, Caroline T1 - The productivity puzzle in business services T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - In Germany, the productivity of professional services, a sector dominated by micro and small firms, declined by 40 percent between 1995 and 2014. This productivity decline also holds true for professional services in other European countries. Using a German firm-level dataset of 700,000 observations between 2003 and 2017, we analyze this largely uncovered phenomenon among professional services, the 4th largest sector in the EU15 business economy, which provide important intermediate services for the rest of the economy. We show that changes in the value chain explain about half of the decline and the increase in part-time employment is a further minor part of the decline. In contrast to expectations, the entry of micro and small firms, despite their lower productivity levels, is not responsible for the decline. We also cannot confirm the conjecture that weakening competition allows unproductive firms to remain in the market. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 37 KW - business services KW - labor productivity KW - productivity slowdown Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-514536 SN - 2628-653X IS - 37 ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Brenner, Andri T1 - The Social Power of Spillover Effects BT - Educating Against Environmental Externalities T2 - CEPA Discussion Papers N2 - Economists are worried that the lack of property rights to natural capital goods jeopardizes the sustainability of the economic growth miracle that has existed since industrialization. This article questions their position. A vertical innovation model with a portfolio of technologies for abatement, adaptation, and general (Harrod-neutral) technology reveals that environmental damage spillovers have a comparable effect on research profits as technology spillovers so that the social costs of depleting public natural capital are internalized. As long as there is free access to information and technology, growth is sustainable and the allocation of research efforts among alternative technologies is socially optimal. While there still is a need to address externalities from monopolistic research markets, no environmental policy is necessary. These results suggest that environmental externalities may originate in restricted access to information and technology, demonstrating that (i) information has a similar effect as an environmental tax and (ii) knowledge and technology transfers have an impact comparable to that of subsidies for research in green technology. T3 - CEPA Discussion Papers - 35 KW - endogenous growth KW - horizontal innovation KW - sustainability Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-511098 SN - 2628-653X IS - 35 ER -