TY  - GEN
A1  - Zurell, Damaris
A1  - Elith, Jane
A1  - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris
T1  - Predicting to new environments  tools for visualizing model behaviour and impacts on mapped distributions
T2  - Diversity & distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity
N2  - Data limitations can lead to unrealistic fits of predictive species distribution models (SDMs) and spurious extrapolation to novel environments. Here, we want to draw attention to novel combinations of environmental predictors that are within the sampled range of individual predictors but are nevertheless outside the sample space. These tend to be overlooked when visualizing model behaviour. They may be a cause of differing model transferability and environmental change predictions between methods, a problem described in some studies but generally not well understood. We here use a simple simulated data example to illustrate the problem and provide new and complementary visualization techniques to explore model behaviour and predictions to novel environments. We then apply these in a more complex real-world example. Our results underscore the necessity of scrutinizing model fits, ecological theory and environmental novelty.
KW  - Environmental niche
KW  - extrapolation
KW  - inflated response curves
KW  - novel environment
KW  - sampling space
KW  - species distribution models
Y1  - 2012
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1472-4642.2012.00887.x
SN  - 1366-9516
VL  - 18
IS  - 6
SP  - 628
EP  - 634
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  -