TY  - JOUR
A1  - Andreev, Andrei
A1  - Raschke, Elena
A1  - Biskaborn, Boris
A1  - Vyse, Stuart Andrew
A1  - Courtin, Jérémy
A1  - Böhmer, Thomas
A1  - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen R.
A1  - Kruse, Stefan
A1  - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1  - Late Pleistocene to Holocene vegetation and climate changes in northwestern Chukotka (Far East Russia) deduced from lakes Ilirney and Rauchuagytgyn pollen records
JF  - Boreas : an international journal of quaternary research
N2  - This paper presents two new pollen records and quantitative climate reconstructions from northern Chukotka documenting environmental changes over the last 27.9 ka. Open tundra- and steppe-like habitats dominated between 27.9 and 18.7 cal. ka BP. Betula and Alnus shrubs might have grown in sheltered microhabitats but disappeared after 18.7 cal. ka BP. Although the climate was rather harsh, local herb-dominated communities supported herbivores as is evident by the presence of coprophilous spores in the sediments. The increase in Salix and Cyperaceae similar to 16.1 cal. ka BP suggests climate amelioration. Shrub Betula appeared similar to 15.9 cal. ka BP, and became dominant after similar to 15.52 cal. ka BP, whilst typical steppe communities drastically reduced. Very high presence of Botryococcus in the Lateglacial sediments reflects widespread shallow habitats, probably due to lake level increase. Shrub Alnus became common after similar to 13 cal. ka BP reflecting further climate amelioration. Simultaneously, herb communities gradually decreased in the vegetation reaching a minimum similar to 11.8 cal. ka BP. A gradual decrease of algae remains suggests a reduction of shallow-water habitats. Shrubby and graminoid tundra was dominant similar to 11.8-11.1 cal. ka BP, later Salix stands significantly decreased. The forest-tundra ecotone established in the Early Holocene, shortly after 11.1 cal. ka BP. Low contents of green algae in the Early Holocene sediments likely reflect deeper aquatic conditions. The most favourable climate conditions were between similar to 10.6 and 7 cal. ka BP. Vegetation became similar to the modern after similar to 7 cal. ka BP but Pinus pumila came to the Ilirney area at about 1.2 cal. ka BP. It is important to emphasize that the study area provided refugia for Betula and Alnus during MIS 2. It is also notable that our records do not reflect evidence of Younger Dryas cooling, which is inconsistent with some regional environmental records but in good accordance with some others.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/bor.12521
SN  - 0300-9483
SN  - 1502-3885
VL  - 50
IS  - 3
SP  - 652
EP  - 670
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Oxford [u.a.]
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Ayzel, Georgy
T1  - Advancing radar-based precipitation nowcasting
T1  - Fortschritte bei der radarbasierten Niederschlagsvorhersage
BT  - an open benchmark and the potential of deep learning
BT  - ein offener Benchmark und das Potenzial von Deep Learning
N2  - Precipitation forecasting has an important place in everyday life – during the day we may have tens of small talks discussing the likelihood that it will rain this evening or weekend. Should you take an umbrella for a walk? Or should you invite your friends for a barbecue? It will certainly depend on what your weather application shows.

While for years people were guided by the precipitation forecasts issued for a particular region or city several times a day, the widespread availability of weather radars allowed us to obtain forecasts at much higher spatiotemporal resolution of minutes in time and hundreds of meters in space. Hence, radar-based precipitation nowcasting, that is, very-short-range forecasting (typically up to 1–3 h), has become an essential technique, also in various professional application contexts, e.g., early warning, sewage control, or agriculture.

There are two major components comprising a system for precipitation nowcasting: radar-based precipitation estimates, and models to extrapolate that precipitation to the imminent future. While acknowledging the fundamental importance of radar-based precipitation retrieval for  precipitation nowcasts, this thesis focuses only on the model development: the establishment of open and competitive benchmark models, the investigation of the potential of deep learning, and the development of procedures for nowcast errors diagnosis and isolation that can guide model development.

The present landscape of computational models for precipitation nowcasting still struggles with the availability of open software implementations that could serve as benchmarks for measuring progress. Focusing on this gap, we have developed and extensively benchmarked a stack of models based on different optical flow algorithms for the tracking step and a set of parsimonious extrapolation procedures based on image warping and advection. We demonstrate that these models provide skillful predictions comparable with or even superior to state-of-the-art operational software. We distribute the corresponding set of models as a software library, rainymotion, which is written in the Python programming language and openly available at GitHub (https://github.com/hydrogo/rainymotion). That way, the library acts as a tool for providing fast, open, and transparent solutions that could serve as a benchmark for further model development and hypothesis testing.

One of the promising directions for model development is to challenge the potential of deep learning – a subfield of machine learning that refers to artificial neural networks with deep architectures, which may consist of many computational layers. Deep learning showed promising results in many fields of computer science, such as image and speech recognition, or natural language processing, where it started to dramatically outperform reference methods.

The high benefit of using "big data" for training is among the main reasons for that. Hence, the emerging interest in deep learning in atmospheric sciences is also caused and concerted with the increasing availability of data – both observational and model-based. The large archives of weather radar data provide a solid basis for investigation of deep learning potential in precipitation nowcasting: one year of national 5-min composites for Germany comprises around 85 billion data points.

To this aim, we present RainNet, a deep convolutional neural network for radar-based precipitation nowcasting. RainNet was trained to predict continuous precipitation intensities at a lead time of 5 min, using several years of quality-controlled weather radar composites provided by the German Weather Service (DWD). That data set covers Germany with a spatial domain of 900 km x 900 km and has a resolution of 1 km in space and 5 min in time. Independent verification experiments were carried out on 11 summer precipitation events from 2016 to 2017. In these experiments, RainNet was applied recursively in order to achieve lead times of up to 1 h. In the verification experiments, trivial Eulerian persistence and a conventional model based on optical flow served as benchmarks. The latter is available in the previously developed rainymotion library.

RainNet significantly outperformed the benchmark models at all lead times up to 60 min for the routine verification metrics mean absolute error (MAE) and critical success index (CSI) at intensity thresholds of 0.125, 1, and 5 mm/h. However, rainymotion turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (here 10 and 15 mm/h). The limited ability of RainNet to predict high rainfall intensities is an undesirable property which we attribute to a high level of spatial smoothing introduced by the model. At a lead time of 5 min, an analysis of power spectral density confirmed a significant loss of spectral power at length scales of 16 km and below.

Obviously, RainNet had learned an optimal level of smoothing to produce a nowcast at 5 min lead time. In that sense, the loss of spectral power at small scales is informative, too, as it reflects the limits of predictability as a function of spatial scale. Beyond the lead time of 5 min, however, the increasing level of smoothing is a mere artifact – an analogue to numerical diffusion – that is not a property of RainNet itself but of its recursive application. In the context of early warning, the smoothing is particularly unfavorable since pronounced features of intense precipitation tend to get lost over longer lead times. Hence, we propose several options to address this issue in prospective research on model development for precipitation nowcasting, including an adjustment of the loss function for model training, model training for longer lead times, and the prediction of threshold exceedance.

The model development together with the verification experiments for both conventional and deep learning model predictions also revealed the need to better understand the source of forecast errors. Understanding the dominant sources of error in specific situations should help in guiding further model improvement. The total error of a precipitation nowcast consists of an error in the predicted location of a precipitation feature and an error in the change of precipitation intensity over lead time. So far, verification measures did not allow to isolate the location error, making it difficult to specifically improve nowcast models with regard to location prediction.

To fill this gap, we introduced a framework to directly quantify the location error. To that end, we detect and track scale-invariant precipitation features (corners) in radar images. We then consider these observed tracks as the true reference in order to evaluate the performance (or, inversely, the error) of any model that aims to predict the future location of a precipitation feature. Hence, the location error of a forecast at any lead time ahead of the forecast time corresponds to the Euclidean distance between the observed and the predicted feature location at the corresponding lead time.

Based on this framework, we carried out a benchmarking case study using one year worth of weather radar composites of the DWD. We evaluated the performance of four extrapolation models, two of which are based on the linear extrapolation of corner motion; and the remaining two are based on the Dense Inverse Search (DIS) method: motion vectors obtained from DIS are used to predict feature locations by linear and Semi-Lagrangian extrapolation.

For all competing models, the mean location error exceeds a distance of 5 km after 60 min, and 10 km after 110 min. At least 25% of all forecasts exceed an error of 5 km after 50 min, and of 10 km after 90 min. Even for the best models in our experiment, at least 5 percent of the forecasts will have a location error of more than 10 km after 45 min. When we relate such errors to application scenarios that are typically suggested for precipitation nowcasting, e.g., early warning, it becomes obvious that location errors matter: the order of magnitude of these errors is about the same as the typical extent of a convective cell. Hence, the uncertainty of precipitation nowcasts at such length scales – just as a result of locational errors – can be substantial already at lead times of less than 1 h. Being able to quantify the location error should hence guide any model development that is targeted towards its minimization. To that aim, we also consider the high potential of using deep learning architectures specific to the assimilation of sequential (track) data.

Last but not least, the thesis demonstrates the benefits of a general movement towards open science for model development in the field of precipitation nowcasting. All the presented models and frameworks are distributed as open repositories, thus enhancing transparency and reproducibility of the methodological approach. Furthermore, they are readily available to be used for further research studies, as well as for practical applications.
N2  - Niederschlagsvorhersagen haben einen wichtigen Platz in unserem täglichen Leben. Und die breite Abdeckung mit Niederschlagsradaren ermöglicht es uns, den Niederschlag mit einer viel höheren räumlich-zeitlichen Auflösung vorherzusagen (Minuten in der Zeit, Hunderte von Metern im Raum). Solche radargestützten Niederschlagsvorhersagen mit sehr kurzem Vorhersagehorizont (1–3 Stunden) nennt man auch "Niederschlagsnowcasting." Sie sind in verschiedenen Anwendungsbereichen (z.B. in der Frühwarnung, der Stadtentwässerung sowie in der Landwirtschaft) zu einer wichtigen Technologie geworden.

Eine erhebliche Schwierigkeit in Modellentwicklung zum Niederschlagsnowcastings ist jedoch die Verfügbarkeit offener Softwarewerkzeuge und Implementierungen, die als Benchmark für den Entwicklungsfortschritt auf diesem Gebiet dienen können. Um diese Lücke zu schließen, haben wir eine Gruppe von Modellen auf der Grundlage verschiedener Tracking- und Extrapolationsverfahren entwickelt und systematisch verglichen. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass die Vorhersagen dieser einen Skill haben, der sich mit dem Skill operationeller Vorhersagesysteme messen kann, teils sogar überlegen sind. Diese Benchmark-Modelle sind nun in Form der quelloffenen Software-Bibliothek rainymotion allgemein verfügbar (https://github.com/hydrogo/rainymotion).

Eine der vielversprechenden Perspektiven für die weitere Modellentwicklung besteht in der Untersuchung des Potenzials von "Deep Learning" – einem Teilgebiet des maschinellen Lernens, das sich auf künstliche neuronale Netze mit sog. "tiefen Architekturen" bezieht, die aus einer Vielzahl von Schichten (computational layers) bestehen können. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde daher RainNet entwickelt: ein Tiefes Neuronales Netz für radargestütztes Niederschlags-Nowcasting. RainNet wurde zunächst zur Vorhersage der Niederschlagsintensität mit einem Vorhersagehorizont von fünf Minuten trainiert. Als Datengrundlage dazu dienten mehrere Jahre qualitätskontrollierter Radarkompositprodukte des Deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD).

RainNet übertraf die verfügbaren Benchmark-Modelle für Vorhersagezeiten bis zu 60 min in Bezug auf den Mittleren Absoluten Fehler (MAE) und den Critical Success Index (CSI) für Intensitätsschwellenwerte von 0.125, 1 und 5 mm/h. Allerdings erwies sich das das Benchmark-Modell aus dem Softwarepaket rainymotion bei der Vorhersage der Überschreitung höherer Intensitätsschwellen (10 und 15 mm/h) als überlegen. Die eingeschränkte Fähigkeit von RainNet zur Vorhersage hoher Niederschlagsintensitäten ist eine unerwünschte Eigenschaft, die wir auf ein hohes Maß an räumlicher Glättung durch das Modell zurückführen. Im Kontext der Frühwarnung ist die Glättung besonders ungünstig, da ausgeprägte Merkmale von Starkniederschlägen bei längeren Vorlaufzeiten tendenziell verloren gehen. In dieser Arbeit werden daher mehrere Optionen vorgeschlagen, um dieses Problem in der zukünftigen Forschung zur Modellentwicklung anzugehen.

Ein weiterer Beitrag dieser Arbeit liegt in der Quantifizierung einer spezifischen Fehlerquelle von Niederschlagsnowcasts. Der Gesamtfehler eines Nowcasts besteht aus einem Fehler in der vorhergesagten Lage eines Niederschlagsfeatures (Ortsfehler) sowie einem Fehler in der Änderung der Intensität eines Features über die Vorhersagezeit (Intensitätsfehler). Herkömmliche Verifikationsmaße waren bislang nicht in der Lage, das Ausmaß des Ortsfehlers zu isolieren. Um diese Lücke zu füllen, haben wir einen Ansatz zur direkten Quantifizierung des Ortsfehlers entwickelt. Mit Hilfe dieses Ansatzes wurde wir Benchmarking-Experiment auf Grundlage eines fünfminütigen DWD Radarkompositprodukts für das komplette Jahr 2016  umgesetzt. In diesem Experiment wurden vier Nowcasting-Modelle aus der rainymotion-Softwarebibliothek verwendet im Hinblick auf den Ortsfehler der Vorhersage verglichen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass für alle konkurrierenden Modelle die Ortsfehler von Bedeutung sind: die Größenordnung dieser Fehler entspricht etwa der typischen Ausdehnung einer konvektiven Zelle oder einer mittelgroßen Stadt (5–10 km).

Insgesamt zeigt diese Arbeit die Vorteile eines "Open Science"-Ansatzes für die Modellentwicklung im Bereich der Niederschlagsnowcastings. Alle vorgestellten Modelle und Modellsysteme stehen als offene, gut dokumentierte Repositorien zusammen mit entsprechenden offenen Datensätzen öffentlich zu Verfügung für, was die Transparenz und Reproduzierbarkeit des methodischen Ansatzes, aber auch die Anwendbarkeit in der Praxis erhöht.
KW  - Weather radar
KW  - nowcasting
KW  - optical flow
KW  - deep learning
KW  - Wetterradar
KW  - Deep Learning
KW  - Nowcasting
KW  - Optischer Fluss
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-504267
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ayzel, Georgy
T1  - Deep neural networks in hydrology
BT  - the new generation of universal and efficient models
BT  - новое поколение универсальных и эффективных моделей
JF  - Vestnik of Saint Petersburg University. Earth Sciences
N2  - For around a decade, deep learning - the sub-field of machine learning that refers to artificial neural networks comprised of many computational layers - modifies the landscape of statistical model development in many research areas, such as image classification, machine translation, and speech recognition. Geoscientific disciplines in general and the field of hydrology in particular, also do not stand aside from this movement. Recently, the proliferation of modern deep learning-based techniques and methods has been actively gaining popularity for solving a wide range of hydrological problems: modeling and forecasting of river runoff, hydrological model parameters regionalization, assessment of available water resources. identification of the main drivers of the recent change in water balance components. This growing popularity of deep neural networks is primarily due to their high universality and efficiency. The presented qualities, together with the rapidly growing amount of accumulated environmental information, as well as increasing availability of computing facilities and resources, allow us to speak about deep neural networks as a new generation of mathematical models designed to, if not to replace existing solutions, but significantly enrich the field of geophysical processes modeling. This paper provides a brief overview of the current state of the field of development and application of deep neural networks in hydrology. Also in the following study, the qualitative long-term forecast regarding the development of deep learning technology for managing the corresponding hydrological modeling challenges is provided based on the use of "Gartner Hype Curve", which in the general details describes a life cycle of modern technologies.
N2  - В течение последнего десятилетия глубокое обучение - область машинного обучения, относящаяся к искусственным нейронным сетям, состоящим из множества вычислительных слоев, - изменяет ландшафт развития статистических моделей во многих областях исследований, таких как классификация изображений, машинный перевод, распознавание речи. Географические науки, а также входящая в их состав область исследования гидрологии суши, не стоят в стороне от этого движения. В последнее время применение современных технологий и методов глубокого обучения активно набирает популярность для решения широкого спектра гидрологических задач: моделирования и прогнозирования речного стока, районирования модельных параметров, оценки располагаемых водных ресурсов, идентификации факторов, влияющих на современные изменения водного режима. Такой рост популярности глубоких нейронных сетей продиктован прежде всего их высокой универсальностью и эффективностью. Представленные качества в совокупности с быстрорастущим количеством накопленной информации о состоянии окружающей среды, а также ростом доступности вычислительных средств и ресурсов, позволяют говорить о глубоких нейронных сетях как о новом поколении математических моделей, призванных если не заменить существующие решения, то значительно обогатить область моделирования геофизических процессов. В данной работе представлен краткий обзор текущего состояния области разработки и применения глубоких нейронных сетей в гидрологии. Также в работе предложен качественный долгосрочный прогноз развития технологии глубокого обучения для решения задач гидрологического моделирования на основе использования «кривой ажиотажа Гартнера», в общих чертах описывающей жизненный цикл современных технологий.
T2  - Глубокие нейронные сети в гидрологии
KW  - deep neural networks
KW  - deep learning
KW  - machine learning
KW  - hydrology
KW  - modeling
KW  - глубокие нейронные сети
KW  - глубокое обучение
KW  - машинное обучение
KW  - гидрология
KW  - моделирование
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu07.2021.101
SN  - 2541-9668
SN  - 2587-585X
VL  - 66
IS  - 1
SP  - 5
EP  - 18
PB  - Univ. Press
CY  - St. Petersburg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ayzel, Georgy
A1  - Heistermann, Maik
T1  - The effect of calibration data length on the performance of a conceptual hydrological model versus LSTM and GRU
BT  - a case study for six basins from the CAMELS dataset
JF  - Computers & geosciences : an international journal devoted to the publication of papers on all aspects of geocomputation and to the distribution of computer programs and test data sets ; an official journal of the International Association for Mathematical Geology
N2  - We systematically explore the effect of calibration data length on the performance of a conceptual hydrological model, GR4H, in comparison to two Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architectures: Long Short-Term Memory Networks (LSTM) and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU), which have just recently been introduced to the field of hydrology. We implemented a case study for six river basins across the contiguous United States, with 25 years of meteorological and discharge data. Nine years were reserved for independent validation; two years were used as a warm-up period, one year for each of the calibration and validation periods, respectively; from the remaining 14 years, we sampled increasing amounts of data for model calibration, and found pronounced differences in model performance. While GR4H required less data to converge, LSTM and GRU caught up at a remarkable rate, considering their number of parameters. Also, LSTM and GRU exhibited the higher calibration instability in comparison to GR4H. These findings confirm the potential of modern deep-learning architectures in rainfall runoff modelling, but also highlight the noticeable differences between them in regard to the effect of calibration data length.
KW  - Artificial neural networks
KW  - Calibration
KW  - Deep learning
KW  - Rainfall-runoff
KW  - modelling
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cageo.2021.104708
SN  - 0098-3004
SN  - 1873-7803
VL  - 149
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - RPRT
A1  - Berghäuser, Lisa
A1  - Schoppa, Lukas
A1  - Ulrich, Jana
A1  - Dillenardt, Lisa
A1  - Jurado, Oscar E.
A1  - Passow, Christian
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Seleem, Omar
A1  - Petrow, Theresia
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Starkregen in Berlin
BT  - Meteorologische Ereignisrekonstruktion und Betroffenenbefragung
N2  - In den Sommern der Jahre 2017 und 2019 kam es in Berlin an mehreren Orten zu Überschwemmungen in Folge von Starkregenereignissen. In beiden Jahren führte dies zu erheblichen Beeinträchtigungen im Alltag der Berliner:innen sowie zu hohen Sachschäden. Eine interdisziplinäre Taskforce des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs NatRiskChange untersuchte (1) die meteorologischen Eigenschaften zweier besonders eindrücklicher Unwetter, sowie (2) die Vulnerabilität der Berliner Bevölkerung gegenüber Starkregen. 
Eine vergleichende meteorologische Rekonstruktion der Starkregenereignisse von 2017 und 2019 ergab deutliche Unterschiede in der Entstehung und den Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeiten der beiden Unwetter. So war das Ereignis von 2017 mit einer relativ großen räumlichen Ausdehnung und langer Dauer ein untypisches Starkregenereignis, während es sich bei dem Unwetter von 2019 um ein typisches, kurzzeitiges Starkregenereignis mit ausgeprägter räumlicher Heterogenität handelte. Eine anschließende statistische Analyse zeigte, dass das Ereignis von 2017 für längere Niederschlagsdauern (>=24 h) als großflächiges Extremereignis mit Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeiten von unter 1 % einzuordnen ist (d.h. Wiederkehrperioden >=100 Jahre). Im Jahr 2019 wurden dagegen ähnliche Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeiten nur lokal und für kürzere Zeiträume (1-2 h) berechnet. 
 
Die Vulnerabilitätsanalyse basiert auf einer von April bis Juni 2020 in Berlin durchgeführten Onlinebefragung. Diese richtete sich an Personen, die bereits von vergangenen Starkregenereignissen betroffen waren und thematisierte das Schadensereignis selbst, daraus entstandene Beeinträchtigungen und Schäden, Risikowahrnehmung sowie Notfall- und Vorsorgemaßnahmen. Die erhobenen Umfragedaten (n=102) beziehen sich vornehmlich auf die Ereignisse von 2017 und 2019 und zeigen, dass die Berliner Bevölkerung sowohl im Alltag (z.B. bei der Beschaffung von Lebensmitteln) als auch im eigenen Haushalt (z.B. durch Überschwemmungsschäden) von den Unwettern beeinträchtigt war. Zudem deuteten die Antworten der Betroffenen auf Möglichkeiten hin, die Vulnerabilität der Gesellschaft gegenüber Starkregen weiter zu reduzieren - etwa durch die Unterstützung besonders betroffener Gruppen (z.B. Pflegende), durch gezielte Informationskampagnen zum Schutz vor Starkregen oder durch die Erhöhung der Reichweite von Unwetterwarnungen. Eine statistische Analyse zur Effektivität privater Notfall- und Vorsorgemaßnahmen auf Grundlage der Umfragedaten bestätigte vorherige Studienergebnisse. 
So gab es Anhaltspunkte dafür, dass durch das Umsetzen von Vorsorgemaßnahmen wie beispielsweise das Installieren von Rückstauklappen, Barriere-Systemen oder Pumpen Starkregenschäden reduziert werden können. 
Die Ergebnisse dieses Berichts unterstreichen die Notwendigkeit für ein integriertes Starkregenrisikomanagment, das die Risikokomponenten Gefährdung, Vulnerabilität und Exposition ganzheitlich und auf mehreren Ebenen (z.B. staatlich, kommunal, privat) betrachtet.
N2  - In the summers of 2017 and 2019, the city of Berlin was hit by heavy rainfall leading to urban flooding in several locations. In both years, this led to considerable disruptions of the daily life and high property damage. With focus on two particularly impressive events a taskforce of the DFG Research Training Group NatRiskChange investigated (1) the meteorological characteristics of both events as well as (2) the vulnerability of the Berlin population to heavy rainfall. 

A comparative meteorological reconstruction of the 2017 and 2019 heavy rainfall events revealed fundamental differences between the two storms. The 2017 event was an atypical heavy rain event, as it was characterized by a relatively large spatial extent and long duration of rainfall, whereas the 2019 storm was a typical short duration heavy rain event with a distinct spatial heterogeneity. Subsequent statistical analysis indicated that the 2017 event should be classified as a large-scale extreme event with exceedance probabilities below 1 % 
for longer precipitation durations (i.e., return periods of over 100 years). In contrast, in 2019 similar exceedance probabilities were estimated only locally and for shorter durations (1-2 h).

The vulnerability analysis of this taskforce was based on an online survey conducted in Berlin between April and June 2020. 
The survey was aimed at people who had experienced past heavy rainfall events in Berlin, and addressed the resulting impairments and damages, risk perceptions as well as emergency and preparedness measures.
The survey data (n=102) primarily referred to the events of 2017 and 2019 and showed that the respondents were affected by the storms both in their daily lives (e.g., when purchasing food) and in their own households (e.g., due to flood damage). In addition, the analysis of the responses pointed to ways to further reduce society's vulnerability to heavy rain. That was, for example, by providing support to particularly affected groups (e.g., caregivers), through targeted information campaigns to protect against heavy rainfall or by improving the range of early warning systems. A statistical analysis of the efficacy of property-level emergency and preparedness measures based on the survey data confirmed previous study findings and provided evidence of reducing heavy rain damage through preparedness.
The findings of the taskforce highlight the need for integrated heavy rainfall risk management that considers the risk components of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure holistically and at multiple levels (e.g., state, local and private households).
KW  - Starkregen
KW  - Risikomanagement
KW  - Meteorologische Ereignisanalyse
KW  - Betroffenenbefragung
KW  - Berlin
KW  - Urban Flooding
KW  - Risk reduction
KW  - Meteorological Event Analysis
KW  - Survey of affected residents
KW  - Berlin
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-500560
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bernhardt, Anne
A1  - Schwanghart, Wolfgang
T1  - Where and why do submarine canyons remain connected to the shore during sea-level rise?
BT  - Insights from global topographic analysis and Bayesian regression
JF  - Geophysical research letters : GRL / American Geophysical Union
N2  - The efficiency of sediment routing from land to the ocean depends on the position of submarine canyon heads with regard to terrestrial sediment sources. We aim to identify the main controls on whether a submarine canyon head remains connected to terrestrial sediment input during Holocene sea-level rise. Globally, we identified 798 canyon heads that are currently located at the 120m-depth contour (the Last Glacial Maximum shoreline) and 183 canyon heads that are connected to the shore (within a distance of 6 km) during the present-day highstand. Regional hotspots of shore-connected canyons are the Mediterranean active margin and the Pacific coast of Central and South America. We used 34 terrestrial and marine predictor variables to predict shore-connected canyon occurrence using Bayesian regression. Our analysis shows that steep and narrow shelves facilitate canyon-head connectivity to the shore. Moreover, shore-connected canyons occur preferentially along active margins characterized by resistant bedrock and high river-water discharge.
KW  - Bayesian statistics
KW  - headward erosion
KW  - seascape
KW  - shoreline
KW  - submarine
KW  - canyon
KW  - turbidity current
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092234
SN  - 0094-8276
SN  - 1944-8007
VL  - 48
IS  - 10
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Blume, Theresa
A1  - Schneider, Lisa
A1  - Güntner, Andreas
T1  - Comparative analysis of throughfall observations in six different forest stands
BT  - Influence of seasons, rainfall- and stand characteristics
JF  - Hydrological processes
N2  - Throughfall, that is, the fraction of rainfall that passes through the forest canopy, is strongly influenced by rainfall and forest stand characteristics which are in turn both subject to seasonal dynamics. Disentangling the complex interplay of these controls is challenging, and only possible with long-term monitoring and a large number of throughfall events measured in parallel at different forest stands. We therefore based our analysis on 346 rainfall events across six different forest stands at the long-term terrestrial environmental observatory TERENO Northeast Germany. These forest stands included pure stands of beech, pine and young pine, and mixed stands of oak-beech, pine-beech and pine-oak-beech. Throughfall was overall relatively low, with 54-68% of incident rainfall in summer. Based on the large number of events it was possible to not only investigate mean or cumulative throughfall but also its statistical distribution. The distributions of throughfall fractions show distinct differences between the three types of forest stands (deciduous, mixed and pine). The distributions of the deciduous stands have a pronounced peak at low throughfall fractions and a secondary peak at high fractions in summer, as well as a pronounced peak at higher throughfall fractions in winter. Interestingly, the mixed stands behave like deciduous stands in summer and like pine stands in winter: their summer distributions are similar to the deciduous stands but the winter peak at high throughfall fractions is much less pronounced. The seasonal comparison further revealed that the wooden components and the leaves behaved differently in their throughfall response to incident rainfall, especially at higher rainfall intensities. These results are of interest for estimating forest water budgets and in the context of hydrological and land surface modelling where poor simulation of throughfall would adversely impact estimates of evaporative recycling and water availability for vegetation and runoff.
KW  - forest hydrology
KW  - forest stand characteristics
KW  - interception
KW  - leaf area
KW  - index
KW  - rainfall characteristics
KW  - seasonal effects
KW  - stratified event
KW  - analysis
KW  - throughfall
KW  - tree species effects
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14461
SN  - 0885-6087
SN  - 1099-1085
VL  - 36
IS  - 3
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
A1  - Bürger, Gerhard
A1  - Pfister, Angela
T1  - Vorhersage und Projektion von Sturzfluten - Vorwort
JF  - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung : HyWa = Hydrology and water resources management, Germany / Hrsg.: Fachverwaltungen des Bundes und der Länder
T2  - Forecasting and projection of flash flood
Y1  - 2021
SN  - 1439-1783
SN  - 2749-859X
VL  - 65
IS  - 6
SP  - 260
EP  - 261
PB  - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde, BfG
CY  - Koblenz
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
T1  - Intraseasonal oscillation indices from complex EOFs
JF  - Journal of climate
N2  - Indices of oscillatory behavior are conveniently obtained by projecting the fields in question into a phase space of a few (mostly just two) dimensions; empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) or other, more dynamical, modes are typically used for the projection. If sufficiently coherent and in quadrature, the projected variables simply describe a rotating vector in the phase space, which then serves as the basis for predictions. Using the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) as a test case, an alternative procedure is introduced: it augments the original fields with their Hilbert transform (HT) to form a complex series and projects it onto its (single) dominant EOF. The real and imaginary parts of the corresponding complex pattern and index are compared with those of the original (real) EOF. The new index explains slightly less variance of the physical fields than the original, but it is much more coherent, partly from its use of future information by the HT. Because the latter is in the way of real-time monitoring, the index can only be used in cases with predicted physical fields, for which it promises to be superior. By developing a causal approximation of the HT, a real-time variant of the index is obtained whose coherency is comparable to the noncausal version, but with smaller explained variance of the physical fields. In test cases the new index compares well to other indices of BSISO. The potential for using both indices as an alternative is discussed.
KW  - Madden-Julian oscillation
KW  - Oscillations
KW  - Empirical orthogonal functions
KW  - Filtering techniques
KW  - Statistical techniques
KW  - Forecasting techniques
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0427.1
SN  - 0894-8755
SN  - 1520-0442
VL  - 34
IS  - 1
SP  - 107
EP  - 122
PB  - American Meteorological Soc.
CY  - Boston
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
A1  - Pfister, Angela
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
T1  - Zunehmende Starkregenintensitäten als Folge der Klimaerwärmung
T1  - Increasing intensity of heavy rainfall caused by global warming
BT  - Datenanalyse und Zukunftsprojektion
BT  - data analysis and future projections
JF  - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung : HyWa = Hydrology and water resources management, Germany / Hrsg.: Fachverwaltungen des Bundes und der Länder
N2  - Extreme rainfall events of short duration in the range of hours and below are increasingly coming into focus due to the resulting damage from flash floods and also due to their possible intensification by anthropogenic climate change. The current study investigates possible trends in heavy rainfall intensities for stations from Swiss and Austrian alpine regions as well as for the Emscher-Lippe area in North Rhine-Westphalia on the basis of partly very long (> 50 years) and temporally highly resolved time series (<= 15 minutes). It becomes clear that there is an increase in extreme rainfall intensities, which can be well explained by the warming of the regional climate: the analyses of long-term trends in exceedance counts and return levels show considerable uncertainties, but are in the order of 30 % increase per century. In addition, based on an "average" climate simulation for the 21st century, this paper describes a projection for extreme precipitation intensities at very high temporal resolution for a number of stations in the Emscher-Lippe region. A coupled spatial and temporal "downscaling" is applied, the key innovation of which is the consideration of the dependence of local rainfall intensity on air temperature. This procedure involves two steps: First, large-scale climate fields at daily resolution are statistically linked by regression to station temperature and precipitation values (spatial downscaling). In the second step, these station values are disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 minutes using a so-called multiplicative stochastic cascade model (MC) (temporal downscaling). The novel, temperature-sensitive variant additionally considers air temperature as an explanatory variable for precipitation intensities. Thus, the higher atmospheric moisture content expected with warming, which results from the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relationship, is included in the temporal downscaling. <br /> For the statistical evaluation of the extreme short-term precipitation, the upper quantiles (99.9 %), exceedance counts (P > 5mm), and 3-yr return levels of the <= 15-min duration step has been used. Only by adding temperature is the observed temperature observed of the extreme quantiles ("CC scaling") well reproduced. When comparing observed data and present-day simulations of the model cascade, the temperature-sensitive procedure shows consistent results. Compared to trends in recent decades, similar or even larger increases in extreme intensities are projected for the future. This is remarkable in that these appear to be driven primarily by local temperature, as the projected trends in daily precipitation values are negligible for this region.
N2  - Extreme Regenereignisse von kurzer Dauer im Bereich von Stunden und darunter rücken aufgrund der dadurch bedingten Schäden durch Sturzfluten und auch wegen ihrer möglichen Intensivierungen durch den anthropogenen Klimawandel immer stärker in den Fokus. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht auf Basis von teilweise sehr langen (> 50 Jahre) und zeitlich hochaufgelösten Zeitreihen (≤ 15 Minuten) mögliche Trends in Starkregenintensitäten für Stationen aus schweizerischen und österreichischen Alpenregionen sowie für das Emscher-Lippe-Gebiet in Nordrhein-Westfalen. Es wird deutlich, dass es eine Zunahme der extremen Niederschlagsintensitäten gibt, welche gut durch die Erwärmung des regionalen Klimas erklärt werden kann: Die Analysen langfristiger Trends der Überschreitungssummen und Wiederkehrniveaus zeigen zwar erhebliche Unsicherheiten, lassen jedoch eine Zunahme in einer Größenordnung von 30 % pro Jahrhundert erkennen. Zudem wird in diesem Beitrag, basierend auf einer "mittleren" Klimasimulation für das 21. Jahrhundert, für ausgewählte Stationen der Emscher-Lippe-Region eine Projektion für extreme Niederschlagsintensitäten in sehr hoher zeitlicher Auflösung beschrieben. Dabei wird ein gekoppeltes räumliches und zeitliches "Downscaling" angewendet, dessen entscheidende Neuerung die Berücksichtigung der Abhängigkeit der lokalen Regenintensität von der Lufttemperatur ist. Dieses Verfahren beinhaltet zwei Schritte: Zuerst werden großräumige Klimafelder in täglicher Auflösung durch Regression mit den Temperatur- und Niederschlagswerten der Stationen statistisch verbunden (räumliches Downscaling). Im zweiten Schritt werden dann diese Stationswerte mithilfe eines sogenannten multiplikativen stochastischen Kaskadenmodells (MC) auf eine zeitliche Auflösung von 10 Minuten disaggregiert (zeitliches Downscaling). Die neuartige, temperatursensitive Variante berücksichtigt zusätzlich die Lufttemperatur als erklärende Variable für die Niederschlagsintensitäten. Dadurch wird der mit einer Erwärmung zu erwartende höhere atmosphärische Feuchtegehalt, welcher sich aus der Clausius-Clapeyron-Beziehung (CC) ergibt, mit in das zeitliche Downscaling einbezogen.
Für die statistische Auswertung der extremen kurzfristigen Niederschläge wurden die oberen Quantile (99,9 %), Überschreitungssummen (ÜS, P > 5 mm) und 3-jährliche Wiederkehrniveaus (WN) einer Dauerstufe von ≤ 15-Minuten betrachtet. Diese Auswahl erlaubt die gleichzeitige Analyse sowohl von Extremwertstatistiken als auch von deren langfristigen Trends; leichte Abweichungen von dieser Wahl beeinflussen die Hauptergebnisse nur unwesentlich. Nur durch die Hinzunahme der Temperatur wird die beobachtete Temperaturabhängigkeit der extremen Quantile (CC-Scaling) gut wiedergegeben. Bei Vergleich von Beobachtungsdaten und Gegenwartssimulationen der Modellkaskade zeigt das temperatursensitive Verfahren konsistente Ergebnisse. Im Vergleich zu den Entwicklungen der letzten Jahrzehnte werden für die Zukunft ähnliche oder sogar noch stärkere Anstiege der extremen Niederschlagsintensitäten projiziert. Dies ist insofern bemerkenswert, als diese anscheinend hauptsächlich durch die örtliche Temperatur bestimmt werden, denn die projizierten Trends der Niederschlags-Tageswerte sind für diese Region vernachlässigbar.
KW  - heavy rainfall
KW  - short duration
KW  - global warming
KW  - Clausius-Clapeyron
KW  - equation
KW  - precipitation intensity
KW  - multiplicative cascade model
KW  - Strakregen
KW  - kurzfristige Dauerstufe
KW  - Klimawandel
KW  - Clausius-Clapeyron-Gleichung
KW  - Niederschlagsintensitäten
KW  - Multiplikatives Kaskadenmodel
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2021.6_1
SN  - 1439-1783
SN  - 2749-859X
VL  - 65
IS  - 6
SP  - 262
EP  - 271
PB  - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde
CY  - Koblenz
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Cano Crespo, Ana
A1  - Traxl, Dominik
A1  - Thonicke, Kirsten
T1  - Spatio-temporal patterns of extreme fires in Amazonian forests
JF  - European physical journal special topics
N2  - Fires are a fundamental part of the Earth System. In the last decades, they have been altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition with unprecedented rapidity. In this study, we implement a complex networks-based methodology to track individual fires over space and time. We focus on extreme fires-the 5% most intense fires-in the tropical forests of the Brazilian Legal Amazon over the period 2002-2019. We analyse the interannual variability in the number and spatial patterns of extreme forest fires in years with diverse climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressure to examine potential synergies between climate and anthropogenic drivers. We observe that major droughts, that increase forest flammability, co-occur with high extreme fire years but also that it is fundamental to consider anthropogenic activities to understand the distribution of extreme fires. Deforestation fires, fires escaping from managed lands, and other types of forest degradation and fragmentation provide the ignition sources for fires to ignite in the forests. We find that all extreme forest fires identified are located within a 0.5-km distance from forest edges, and up to 56% of them are within a 1-km distance from roads (which increases to 73% within 5 km), showing a strong correlation that defines spatial patterns of extreme fires.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00164-3
SN  - 1951-6355
SN  - 1951-6401
VL  - 230
IS  - 14-15
SP  - 3033
EP  - 3044
PB  - Springer
CY  - Berlin ; Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Courtin, Jérémy
A1  - Andreev, Andrei
A1  - Raschke, Elena
A1  - Bala, Sarah
A1  - Biskaborn, Boris
A1  - Liu, Sisi
A1  - Zimmermann, Heike
A1  - Diekmann, Bernhard
A1  - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen R.
A1  - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1  - Vegetation changes in Southeastern Siberia during the late pleistocene and the holocene
JF  - Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution
N2  - Relationships between climate, species composition, and species richness are of particular importance for understanding how boreal ecosystems will respond to ongoing climate change. This study aims to reconstruct changes in terrestrial vegetation composition and taxa richness during the glacial Late Pleistocene and the interglacial Holocene in the sparsely studied southeastern Yakutia (Siberia) by using pollen and sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) records. Pollen and sedaDNA metabarcoding data using the trnL g and h markers were obtained from a sediment core from Lake Bolshoe Toko. Both proxies were used to reconstruct the vegetation composition, while metabarcoding data were also used to investigate changes in plant taxa richness. The combination of pollen and sedaDNA approaches allows a robust estimation of regional and local past terrestrial vegetation composition around Bolshoe Toko during the last similar to 35,000 years. Both proxies suggest that during the Late Pleistocene, southeastern Siberia was covered by open steppe-tundra dominated by graminoids and forbs with patches of shrubs, confirming that steppe-tundra extended far south in Siberia. Both proxies show disturbance at the transition between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene suggesting a period with scarce vegetation, changes in the hydrochemical conditions in the lake, and in sedimentation rates. Both proxies document drastic changes in vegetation composition in the early Holocene with an increased number of trees and shrubs and the appearance of new tree taxa in the lake's vicinity. The sedaDNA method suggests that the Late Pleistocene steppe-tundra vegetation supported a higher number of terrestrial plant taxa than the forested Holocene. This could be explained, for example, by the "keystone herbivore" hypothesis, which suggests that Late Pleistocene megaherbivores were able to maintain a high plant diversity. This is discussed in the light of the data with the broadly accepted species-area hypothesis as steppe-tundra covered such an extensive area during the Late Pleistocene.
KW  - last glacial
KW  - Holocene
KW  - Lake Bolshoe Toko
KW  - paleoenvironments
KW  - sedimentary ancient DNA
KW  - metabarcoding
KW  - trnL
KW  - pollen
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2021.625096
SN  - 2296-701X
VL  - 9
PB  - Frontiers Media
CY  - Lausanne
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Devitt, Laura
A1  - Neal, Jeffrey
A1  - Wagener, Thorsten
A1  - Coxon, Gemma
T1  - Uncertainty in the extreme flood magnitude estimates of large-scale flood hazard models
JF  - Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics
N2  - The growing worldwide impact of flood events has motivated the development and application of global flood hazard models (GFHMs). These models have become useful tools for flood risk assessment and management, especially in regions where little local hazard information is available. One of the key uncertainties associated with GFHMs is the estimation of extreme flood magnitudes to generate flood hazard maps. In this study, the 1-in-100 year flood (Q100) magnitude was estimated using flow outputs from four global hydrological models (GHMs) and two global flood frequency analysis datasets for 1350 gauges across the conterminous US. The annual maximum flows of the observed and modelled timeseries of streamflow were bootstrapped to evaluate the sensitivity of the underlying data to extrapolation. Results show that there are clear spatial patterns of bias associated with each method. GHMs show a general tendency to overpredict Western US gauges and underpredict Eastern US gauges. The GloFAS and HYPE models underpredict Q100 by more than 25% in 68% and 52% of gauges, respectively. The PCR-GLOBWB and CaMa-Flood models overestimate Q100 by more than 25% at 60% and 65% of gauges in West and Central US, respectively. The global frequency analysis datasets have spatial variabilities that differ from the GHMs. We found that river basin area and topographic elevation explain some of the spatial variability in predictive performance found in this study. However, there is no single model or method that performs best everywhere, and therefore we recommend a weighted ensemble of predictions of extreme flood magnitudes should be used for large-scale flood hazard assessment.
KW  - large-scale flood hazard models
KW  - global hydrological model
KW  - flood risk
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abfac4
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 16
IS  - 6
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Dietze, Michael
A1  - Öztürk, Ugur
T1  - A flood of disaster response challenges
T2  - Science
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abm0617
SN  - 0036-8075
SN  - 1095-9203
VL  - 373
IS  - 6561
SP  - 1317
EP  - 1318
PB  - American Association for the Advancement of Science
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - RPRT
A1  - Dillenardt, Lisa
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Untersuchung der räumlichen Verteilung von Bodenkühlpotenzialen in Remscheid
N2  - Eine Zunahme der allgemeinen Temperatur auf Grund des Klimawandels und die damit einhergehende Zunahme von Hitzewellen führten dazu, dass das Landesamt für Umwelt und Verbraucherschutz Nordrhein-Westfalen (LANUV) einen Leitfaden für den Schutz der positiven Klimafunktion urbaner Böden herausgab. Darauf aufbauend wurde auf regionaler Ebene für die Stadt Düsseldorf die Kühlleistung der urbanen Böden quantifiziert, um besonders schutzwürdige Bereiche zu identifizieren. Im Rahmen des Projektes ExTrass sollte nun die Kühlleistung urbaner Böden innerhalb Remscheids quantifiziert werden, jedoch auf Basis von frei zugänglichen Daten. Eine solche Datengrundlage schließt eine Modellierung des Bodenwasserhaushaltes, welches die Grundlage der Quantifizierung in Düsseldorf war, für Remscheid aus. Jedoch bietet der vorgestellte Ansatz die Möglichkeit, eine solche Untersuchung auch in anderen Gemeinden innerhalb Deutschlands mit relativ wenig Aufwand durchzuführen. 
Die Kühlleistung der Böden wurde über die nutzbare Feldkapazität abgeschätzt, welche das Wasserspeichervolumen der obersten durchwurzelten Bodenzone angibt. Es ist der Bodenwasserspeicher, der Wasser für die Evapotranspiration zur Verfügung stellt und damit maßgeblich die Kühlleistung eines Bodens definiert, d.h. durch direkte Evaporation des Bodenwassers sowie durch die Transpiration von Wasser durch Pflanzen. In die Erstellung der Karte sind eingegangen: (a) die Bodenkarte Nordrhein-Westfalens (BK50), um die nutzbare Feldkapazität (nFK) je Fläche zu bestimmen; (b) der Landnutzungsdatensatz UrbanAtlas 2012, in Verbindung mit einer Literaturrecherche, um den Einfluss der Landnutzung auf die Werte der nFK, insbesondere im Hinblick auf Versiegelung und Verdichtung herzuleiten; und (c) OpenStreetMap (OSM), um den Anteil der versiegelten Flächen genauer zu bestimmen, als dies auf Basis des UrbanAtlas möglich gewesen wäre. 
Es hat sich gezeigt, dass dieser Ansatz geeignet ist, um die räumliche Verteilung der potenziellen Bodenkühlfunktion innerhalb einer Stadt zu untersuchen. Es ist zu beachten, dass der Einfluss des Grundwassers in Remscheid nicht berücksichtigt werden konnte. Denn es ist damit zu rechnen, dass die Grundwasserverhältnisse aufgrund der geologischen und topographischen Situation in Remscheid kleinräumig Variationen unterliegen und es somit
keinen durchgängigen und kartierten Aquifer gibt.
Kleingartenanlagen, Parks und Friedhöhe im innerstädtischen Bereich und allgemein die Landnutzungsklassen Wald und Grünland wurden als Flächen mit einem besonders hohem potenziellen Bodenkühlpotenzial identifiziert. Solche Flächen sind besonders schützenswert. Die Analyse der Speicherfüllstände der oberen Bodenzone, basierend auf der erstellten Karte der potenziellen Bodenkühlfunktion und der klimatischen Wasserbilanz, ergab, dass besonders innerstädtische Flächen, die einen kleinen Bodenwasserspeicher haben, in einem trockenen Jahr bereits früh im Sommer ihre Kühlfunktion verlieren und bei Hitzewellen somit eine verringerte positive Klimafunktion haben. Gestützt wird diese Aussage durch eine Auswertung des normalisierten differenzierten Vegetationsindex (NDVI), der genutzt wurde, um die Veränderung der Pflanzenvitalität vor und nach einer Hitzeperiode im Juni/Juli 2018 zu untersuchen. 
Messungen mit Meteobikes, einer Vorrichtung, die dazu geeignet ist, während einer Radfahrt kontinuierlich die Temperatur zu messen, stützen die Erkenntnis, dass innerstädtische Grünflächen wie Parks eine positive Wirkung auf das urbane Mikroklima haben. Weiterhin zeigen diese Messungen, dass die Topographie innerhalb des Untersuchungsgebietes die Aufheizung einzelner Flächen und die Temperaturverteilung vermutlich mitbestimmt. Die hier vorgestellte Karte der potenziellen Kühlfunktion für Remscheid sollte als Ergänzung in die Klimafunktionskarte für Remscheid eingehen und den bestehenden Layer „flächenhafte Klimafunktion“, der nur die Landnutzung berücksichtigt, ersetzen.
KW  - Klimaanpassung
KW  - urbane Böden
KW  - Bodenkühlpotenzial
KW  - nutzbare Feldkapazität
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-526670
ER  - 
TY  - CHAP
A1  - Eisele, Micha
A1  - Bárdossy, András
A1  - El Hachem, Abbas
A1  - Seidel, Jochen
A1  - Kröcher, Jenny
A1  - Lischeid, Gunnar
A1  - Pätzig, Marlene
A1  - Shrestha, Rupesh
A1  - Frankenberg, Philip
A1  - Jüpner, Robert
T1  - Nachlese vom Hydrologie Tag 2021
T2  - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung : HyWa = Hydrology and water resources management, Germany / Hrsg.: Fachverwaltungen des Bundes und der Länder
T2  - Gleanings from Hydrology Day 2021
Y1  - 2021
SN  - 1439-1783
SN  - 2749-859X
VL  - 65
IS  - 6
SP  - 298
EP  - 298
PB  - Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde
CY  - Koblenz
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Fischer, Melanie
A1  - Korup, Oliver
A1  - Veh, Georg
A1  - Walz, Ariane
T1  - Controls of outbursts of moraine-dammed lakes in the greater Himalayan region
JF  - The Cryosphere
N2  - Glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayas–Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have grown rapidly in number and area in past decades, and some dozens have drained in catastrophic glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). Estimating regional susceptibility of glacial lakes has largely relied on qualitative assessments by experts, thus motivating a more systematic and quantitative appraisal. Before the backdrop of current climate-change projections and the potential of elevation-dependent warming, an objective and regionally consistent assessment is urgently needed. We use an inventory of 3390 moraine-dammed lakes and their documented outburst history in the past four decades to test whether elevation, lake area and its rate of change, glacier-mass balance, and monsoonality are useful inputs to a probabilistic classification model. We implement these candidate predictors in four Bayesian multi-level logistic regression models to estimate the posterior susceptibility to GLOFs. We find that mostly larger lakes have been more prone to GLOFs in the past four decades regardless of the elevation band in which they occurred. We also find that including the regional average glacier-mass balance improves the model classification. In contrast, changes in lake area and monsoonality play ambiguous roles. Our study provides first quantitative evidence that GLOF susceptibility in the HKKHN scales with lake area, though less so with its dynamics. Our probabilistic prognoses offer improvement compared to a random classification based on average GLOF frequency. Yet they also reveal some major uncertainties that have remained largely unquantified previously and that challenge the applicability of single models. Ensembles of multiple models could be a viable alternative for more accurately classifying the susceptibility of moraine-dammed lakes to GLOFs.
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-4145-2021
SN  - 1994-0416
VL  - 15
PB  - Copernicus Publications
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Glückler, Ramesh
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
A1  - Kruse, Stefan
A1  - Andreev, Andrei
A1  - Vyse, Stuart Andrew
A1  - Winkler, Bettina
A1  - Biskaborn, Boris
A1  - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna
A1  - Dietze, Elisabeth
T1  - Wildfire history of the boreal forest of south-western Yakutia (Siberia) over the last two millennia documented by a lake-sediment charcoal record
JF  - Biogeosciences : BG / European Geosciences Union
N2  - Wildfires, as a key disturbance in forest ecosystems, are shaping the world's boreal landscapes. Changes in fire regimes are closely linked to a wide array of environmental factors, such as vegetation composition, climate change, and human activity. Arctic and boreal regions and, in particular, Siberian boreal forests are experiencing rising air and ground temperatures with the subsequent degradation of permafrost soils leading to shifts in tree cover and species composition. Compared to the boreal zones of North America or Europe, little is known about how such environmental changes might influence long-term fire regimes in Russia. The larch-dominated eastern Siberian deciduous boreal forests differ markedly from the composition of other boreal forests, yet data about past fire regimes remain sparse. Here, we present a high-resolution macroscopic charcoal record from lacustrine sediments of Lake Khamra (southwest Yakutia, Siberia) spanning the last ca. 2200 years, including information about charcoal particle sizes and morphotypes. Our results reveal a phase of increased charcoal accumulation between 600 and 900 CE, indicative of relatively high amounts of burnt biomass and high fire frequencies. This is followed by an almost 900-year-long period of low charcoal accumulation without significant peaks likely corresponding to cooler climate conditions. After 1750 CE fire frequencies and the relative amount of biomass burnt start to increase again, coinciding with a warming climate and increased anthropogenic land development after Russian colonization. In the 20th century, total charcoal accumulation decreases again to very low levels despite higher fire frequency, potentially reflecting a change in fire management strategies and/or a shift of the fire regime towards more frequent but smaller fires. A similar pattern for different charcoal morphotypes and comparison to a pollen and non-pollen palynomorph (NPP) record from the same sediment core indicate that broad-scale changes in vegetation composition were probably not a major driver of recorded fire regime changes. Instead, the fire regime of the last two millennia at Lake Khamra seems to be controlled mainly by a combination of short-term climate variability and anthropogenic fire ignition and suppression.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4185-2021
SN  - 1726-4170
SN  - 1726-4189
VL  - 18
IS  - 13
SP  - 4185
EP  - 4209
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Goetz, Jason
A1  - Kohrs, Robin
A1  - Parra Hormazábal, Eric
A1  - Bustos Morales, Manuel
A1  - Araneda Riquelme, María Belén
A1  - Henríquez Ruiz, Cristian
A1  - Brenning, Alexander
T1  - Optimizing and validating the Gravitational Process Path model for regional debris-flow runout modelling
JF  - Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS / European Geophysical Society
N2  - Knowing the source and runout of debris flows can help in planning strategies aimed at mitigating these hazards. Our research in this paper focuses on developing a novel approach for optimizing runout models for regional susceptibility modelling, with a case study in the upper Maipo River basin in the Andes of Santiago, Chile. We propose a two-stage optimization approach for automatically selecting parameters for estimating runout path and distance. This approach optimizes the random-walk and Perla et al.'s (PCM) two-parameter friction model components of the open-source Gravitational Process Path (GPP) modelling framework. To validate model performance, we assess the spatial transferability of the optimized runout model using spatial crossvalidation, including exploring the model's sensitivity to sample size. We also present diagnostic tools for visualizing uncertainties in parameter selection and model performance. Although there was considerable variation in optimal parameters for individual events, we found our runout modelling approach performed well at regional prediction of potential runout areas. We also found that although a relatively small sample size was sufficient to achieve generally good runout modelling performance, larger samples sizes (i.e. >= 80) had higher model performance and lower uncertainties for estimating runout distances at unknown locations. We anticipate that this automated approach using the open-source R software and the System for Automated Geoscientific Analyses geographic information system (SAGA-GIS) will make process-based debris-flow models more readily accessible and thus enable researchers and spatial planners to improve regional-scale hazard assessments.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-2543-2021
SN  - 1561-8633
SN  - 1684-9981
VL  - 21
IS  - 8
SP  - 2543
EP  - 2562
PB  - European Geophysical Society
CY  - Katlenburg-Lindau
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Grosse, Peter
T1  - Modellierung der Sedimentdynamik im Rofental, Ötztaler Alpen, unter Verwendung eines nichtparametrischen Modells
N2  - The continued melting of glaciers releases more sediment deposits, making them more susceptible to erosion. Increased sediment discharge rates endanger water quality and water supply due to reservoir siltation. In order to better understand these hazards and their evolvement, erosion processes need to be studied, especially in high alpine catchment areas. In this bachelor thesis, sediment concentrations as well as other environmental variables, such as discharge, precipitation and temperature, were measured in the Rofental catchment (Ötztal Alps) and in a highly glaciated sub-catchment of the Rofental. The quantile regression forest machine learning technique was applied to determine the correlation between sediment concentration and ancillary variables. The variables were aggregated to different levels, which allowed past hydroclimatic conditions to be taken into account. Considering the knowledge regarding the influence of these environment variables, the sediment concentration could be retrospectively simulated using a Monte Carlo approach. The resulting continuous time series was used to calculate the annual sediment export rates. The turbidity, as an indicator for the sediment concentration, was measured as well. By determining the correlation between the modelled data and the measured turbidity, the significance of the model could be assessed. The results show that the quantile regression forest model is a suitable approach to reconstruct the sediment dynamics in the Rofental. It further emerged that the discharge has a great impact on the sediment concentration in both catchments, with the relevance of the other variables varying widely between both study areas. The correlation between the measured turbidity and the simulated sediment concentration is strongly positive, whereby debris flows, measurement errors and the rinse of new sediment reservoirs deteriorated the model’s performance.
N2  - Durch das anhaltende Rückschmelzen von Gletschern werden mehr Sedimentdepots freigesetzt, wodurch diese anfälliger für Erosion werden. Erhöhte Sedimentaustragsraten gefährden die Wasserqualität sowie die Wasserversorgung durch Stauraumverlandung. Um diese Gefahren und deren Abläufe besser verstehen zu können, müssen Erosionsprozesse vor allem in hochalpinen Einzugsgebieten erforscht werden. In dieser Bachelorarbeit wurden Sedimentkonzentrationen sowie weitere Umgebungsvariablen (Abfluss, Niederschlag und Temperatur) im Rofental, Ötztaler Alpen und in einem stark vergletscherten Teileinzugsgebiet des Rofentals gemessen. Um den Zusammenhang zwischen der Sedimentkonzentration und den gemessenen Umgebungsbedingungen zu ermitteln, wurde das Quantile Regression Forest Modell verwendet. Dabei wurden die Variablen zu unterschiedlichen Zeitstufen aggregiert, wodurch vergangene hydroklimatische Bedingungen berücksichtigt werden konnten. Mit der Kenntnis über den Einfluss der verschiedenen Einflussfaktoren konnte die Sedimentkonzentration rückwirkend mithilfe eines Monte Carlo Ansatzes kontinuierlich modelliert werden, wodurch Aussagen über die jährlichen Sedimentexportraten getätigt werden konnten. Weiterhin wurde auch die Trübung, welche als Indikator für die Sedimentkonzentration angesehen werden kann, gemessen. Durch die Bestimmung der Korrelation zwischen modellierten Daten und der gemessenen Trübung konnte der Aussagegehalt des Modells beurteilt werden. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass das Quantile Regression Forest Modell geeignet ist, um die Sedimentdynamik im Rofental zu rekonstruieren. Es stellte sich weiterhin heraus, dass der Abfluss in beiden Untersuchungsgebieten den größten Einfluss auf die Sedimentdynamik hat, wobei sich die Relevanz verschiedener Variablen in beiden Untersuchungsgebieten stark unterschied. Gemessene Trübungsdaten und die modellierten Sedimentkonzentrationen korrelierten stark positiv, wobei Murgänge, Messfehler und die Anzapfung neuer Sedimentdepots zur Verschlechterung der Modellgüte führten.
KW  - Erosion
KW  - suspended sediment
KW  - Rofental
KW  - quantile regression forest
KW  - Sedimentdynamik
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-506695
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hagedoorn, Liselotte
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Hudson, Paul
A1  - Brander, Luke
A1  - Pham Thi Dieu, My
A1  - Lasage, Ralph
T1  - Preferences of vulnerable social groups for ecosystem-based adaptation to flood risk in Central Vietnam
JF  - World development : the multi-disciplinary international journal devoted to the study and promotion of world development
N2  - Developing countries are increasingly impacted by floods, especially in Asia. Traditional flood risk man-agement, using structural measures such as levees, can have negative impacts on the livelihoods of social groups that are more vulnerable. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) provides a complementary approach that is potentially more inclusive of groups that are commonly described as more vulnerable, such as the poor and women. However, there is a lack of disaggregated and quantitative information on the potential of EbA to support vulnerable groups of society. This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the differ-ences in vulnerability to flooding as well as preferences for EbA benefits across income groups and gen -der. We use data collected through a survey of households in urban and rural Central Vietnam which included a discrete choice experiment on preferences for ecosystem services. A total of 1,010 households was surveyed during 2017 through a random sampling approach. Preferences are measured in monetary and non-monetary terms to avoid issues that may arise from financial constraints faced by respondents and especially the more vulnerable groups. Our results reveal that lower income households and women are overall more vulnerable than their counterparts and have stronger preferences for the majority of the EbA benefits, including flood protection, seafood abundance, tourism, and recreation suitability. These findings strongly indicate that EbA is indeed a promising tool to support groups of society that are espe-cially vulnerable to floods. These results provide crucial insights for future implementation of EbA pro-jects and for the integration of EbA with goals targeted at complying with the Sendai Framework and Sustainable Development Goals. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
KW  - Ecosystem-based Adaptation (EbA)
KW  - Vulnerability
KW  - Gender equality
KW  - Poverty alleviation
KW  - Discrete choice experiment
KW  - Payment vehicle
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105650
SN  - 0305-750X
VL  - 148
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Heidenreich, Anna
A1  - Buchner, Martin
A1  - Walz, Ariane
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - How to deal with heat stress at an open-air event?
BT  - Exploring visitors’ vulnerability, risk perception, and adaptive behavior with a multimethod approach
JF  - Weather, climate & society / American Meteorological Society
N2  - Heat waves are increasingly common in many countries across the globe, and also in Germany, where this study is set. Heat poses severe health risks, especially for vulnerable groups such as the elderly and children. This case study explores visitors' behavior and perceptions during six weekends in the summer of 2018 at a 6-month open-air horticultural show. Data from a face-to-face survey (n = 306) and behavioral observations ( n = 2750) were examined by using correlation analyses, ANOVA, and multiple regression analyses. Differences in weather perception, risk awareness, adaptive behavior, and activity level were observed between rainy days (maximum daily temperature, 25 degrees C), warmsummer days (25 degrees-30 degrees C), and hot days (>30 degrees C). Respondents reported a high level of heat risk awareness, butmost (90%) were unaware of actual heat warnings. During hot days, more adaptive measures were reported and observed. Older respondents reported taking the highest number of adaptive measures. We observed the highest level of adaptation in children, but they also showed the highest activity level. From our results we discuss how to facilitate individual adaptation to heat stress at open-air events by taking the heterogeneity of visitors into account. To mitigate negative health outcomes for citizens in the future, we argue for tailored risk communication aimed at vulnerable groups. <br /> SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: People around the world are facing higher average temperatures. While higher temperatures make open-air events a popular leisure time activity in summer, heat waves are a threat to health and life. Since there is not much research on how visitors of such events perceive different weather conditions-especially hot temperatures-we explored this in our case study in southern Germany at an open-air horticultural show in the summer of 2018. We discovered deficits both in people's awareness of current heat risk and the heat adaptation they carry out themselves. Future research should further investigate risk perception and adaptation behavior of private individuals, whereas event organizers and authorities need to continually focus on risk communication and facilitate individual adaptation of their visitors.
KW  - Extreme events
KW  - Adaptation
KW  - Communications/decision making
KW  - Emergency
KW  - preparedness
KW  - Emergency response
KW  - Field experiments
KW  - Societal impacts
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0027.1
SN  - 1948-8327
SN  - 1948-8335
VL  - 13
IS  - 4
SP  - 989
EP  - 1002
PB  - American Meteorological Soc.
CY  - Boston
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Heistermann, Maik
A1  - Francke, Till
A1  - Schrön, Martin
A1  - Oswald, Sascha
T1  - Spatio-temporal soil moisture retrieval at the catchment scale using a dense network of cosmic-ray neutron sensors
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a powerful technique for retrieving representative estimates of soil water content at a horizontal scale of hectometres (the “field scale”) and depths of tens of centimetres (“the root zone”). This study demonstrates the potential of the CRNS technique to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of soil moisture beyond the integrated volume from isolated CRNS footprints. We use data from an observational campaign carried out between May and July 2019 that featured a dense network of more than 20 neutron detectors with partly overlapping footprints in an area that exhibits pronounced soil moisture gradients within one square kilometre. The present study is the first to combine these observations in order to represent the heterogeneity of soil water content at the sub-footprint scale as well as between the CRNS stations. First, we apply a state-of-the-art procedure to correct the observed neutron count rates for static effects (heterogeneity in space, e.g. soil organic matter) and dynamic effects (heterogeneity in time, e.g. barometric pressure). Based on the homogenized neutron data, we investigate the robustness of a calibration approach that uses a single calibration parameter across all CRNS stations. Finally, we benchmark two different interpolation techniques for obtaining spatio-temporal representations of soil moisture: first, ordinary Kriging with a fixed range; second, spatial interpolation complemented by geophysical inversion (“constrained interpolation”). To that end, we optimize the parameters of a geostatistical interpolation model so that the error in the forward-simulated neutron count rates is minimized, and suggest a heuristic forward operator to make the optimization problem computationally feasible. Comparison with independent measurements from a cluster of soil moisture sensors (SoilNet) shows that the constrained interpolation approach is superior for representing horizontal soil moisture gradients at the hectometre scale. The study demonstrates how a CRNS network can be used to generate coherent, consistent, and continuous soil moisture patterns that could be used to validate hydrological models or remote sensing products.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1162 
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-522131
SN  - 1866-8372
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Heistermann, Maik
A1  - Francke, Till
A1  - Schrön, Martin
A1  - Oswald, Sascha
T1  - Spatio-temporal soil moisture retrieval at the catchment scale using a dense network of cosmic-ray neutron sensors
JF  - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences (HESS)
N2  - Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a powerful technique for retrieving representative estimates of soil water content at a horizontal scale of hectometres (the “field scale”) and depths of tens of centimetres (“the root zone”). This study demonstrates the potential of the CRNS technique to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of soil moisture beyond the integrated volume from isolated CRNS footprints. We use data from an observational campaign carried out between May and July 2019 that featured a dense network of more than 20 neutron detectors with partly overlapping footprints in an area that exhibits pronounced soil moisture gradients within one square kilometre. The present study is the first to combine these observations in order to represent the heterogeneity of soil water content at the sub-footprint scale as well as between the CRNS stations. First, we apply a state-of-the-art procedure to correct the observed neutron count rates for static effects (heterogeneity in space, e.g. soil organic matter) and dynamic effects (heterogeneity in time, e.g. barometric pressure). Based on the homogenized neutron data, we investigate the robustness of a calibration approach that uses a single calibration parameter across all CRNS stations. Finally, we benchmark two different interpolation techniques for obtaining spatio-temporal representations of soil moisture: first, ordinary Kriging with a fixed range; second, spatial interpolation complemented by geophysical inversion (“constrained interpolation”). To that end, we optimize the parameters of a geostatistical interpolation model so that the error in the forward-simulated neutron count rates is minimized, and suggest a heuristic forward operator to make the optimization problem computationally feasible. Comparison with independent measurements from a cluster of soil moisture sensors (SoilNet) shows that the constrained interpolation approach is superior for representing horizontal soil moisture gradients at the hectometre scale. The study demonstrates how a CRNS network can be used to generate coherent, consistent, and continuous soil moisture patterns that could be used to validate hydrological models or remote sensing products.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-25-4807-2021
SN  - 1607-7938
VL  - 25
PB  - Copernicus Publications
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Iturrizaga, Lasafam
A1  - Charrier G., Reynaldo
T1  - Sudden glacier advances in the Cachapoal Valley, Southern Central Andes of Chile (34 degrees S)
JF  - Journal of South American earth sciences
N2  - Throughout the Andes Mountains of South America, a general trend of glacier shrinkage has taken place in modern times. However, a few glaciers have undergone considerable temporally advances or even surged during the mid-19th to 20th century CE. These valley glaciers are mainly located in the Central Andes of Chile and Argentina. The research presented here focuses on the changes of the Cachapoal Glacier in the Southern Central Andes of Chile. Spectacular glacier advances occurred at least three times in historical times, which lead to river blockages and successive lake outburst floods. The glacier advances were reconstructed with a multi-method approach including geomorphological mapping, Be-10 cosmogenic exposure dating of moraines, multi-temporal comparison of historical and recent photographs and paintings as well as the interpretation of aerial photographs and satellite images and the analysis of early travel reports. The article highlights the diversity of environmental conditions for the formation of glaciers in terms of the topographical and climatic setting and the resulting distinct glacier behavior along the Andes Mountains. It is argued for the Cachapoal Glacier that the glacier advances are intrinsic to the glacier type and may not be necessarily climate-dependent. This is characteristic for avalanche-fed glaciers of which the glacier dynamic is strongly controlled by the topographic setting and sudden inputs of ice and rock avalanches as well as by the specific debris transfer system and hydrological drainage pattern. At the regional level, the fluctuations of the Cachapoal Glacier are compared with glaciers of neighboring mountain ranges in the Southern Central Andes and at the global scale with those of the Karakoram Mountains in High Asia with a similar dynamic glacier behavior.
KW  - Cachapoal Glacier
KW  - Glacier surges
KW  - Topography-controlled glacier
KW  - advances
KW  - Glacier lake outbursts
KW  - Debris-covered glaciers
KW  - Central
KW  - Andes
KW  - Chile
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsames.2020.102787
SN  - 0895-9811
SN  - 1873-0647
VL  - 105
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kamjunke, Norbert
A1  - Rode, Michael
A1  - Baborowski, Martina
A1  - Kunz, Julia Vanessa
A1  - Zehner, Jakob
A1  - Borchardt, Dietrich
A1  - Weitere, Markus
T1  - High irradiation and low discharge promote the dominant role of phytoplankton in riverine nutrient dynamics
JF  - Limnology and oceanography / American Society of Limnology and Oceanography
N2  - Rivers play a relevant role in the nutrient turnover during the transport from land to ocean. Here, highly dynamic planktonic processes are more important compared to streams making it necessary to link the dynamics of nutrient turnover to control mechanisms of phytoplankton. We investigated the basic conditions leading to high phytoplankton biomass and corresponding nutrient dynamics in eutrophic, 8th order River Elbe (Germany). In a first step, we performed six Lagrangian sampling campaigns in the lower river section at different hydrological conditions. While nutrient concentrations remained high at low algal densities in autumn and at moderate discharge in summer, high algal concentrations occurred at low discharge in summer. Under these conditions, concentrations of silica and nitrate decreased and rates of nitrate assimilation were high. Soluble reactive phosphorus was depleted and particulate phosphorus increased inversely. Rising molar C:P ratios of seston indicated a phosphorus limitation of phytoplankton, so far rarely observed in eutrophic large rivers. Global radiation combined with mixing depth had a strong predictive power to explain maximum chlorophyll concentration. In a second step, we estimated nutrient turnover exemplarily for N during the campaign with the lowest discharge based on mass balances and metabolism-based process measurements. Mass balance calculations revealed a total nitrate uptake of 423 mg N m(-2)d(-1). Increasing phytoplankton density dominantly explained whole river gross primary production and related assimilatory nutrient uptake. In conclusion, riverine nutrient uptake strongly depends on the growth conditions for phytoplankton, which are favored at high irradiation and low discharge.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/lno.11778
SN  - 0024-3590
SN  - 1939-5590
VL  - 66
IS  - 7
SP  - 2648
EP  - 2660
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Korup, Oliver
A1  - Mohr, Christian Heinrich
A1  - Manga, Michael M.
T1  - Bayesian detection of streamflow response to earthquakes
JF  - Water resources research : an AGU journal
N2  - Detecting whether and how river discharge responds to strong earthquake shaking can be time-consuming and prone to operator bias when checking hydrographs from hundreds of gauging stations. We use Bayesian piecewise regression models to show that up to a fifth of all gauging stations across Chile had their largest change in daily streamflow trend on the day of the M-w 8.8 Maule earthquake in 2010. These stations cluster distinctly in the near field though the number of detected streamflow changes varies with model complexity and length of time window considered. Credible seismic streamflow changes at several stations were the highest detectable in eight months, with an increased variance of discharge surpassing the variance of discharge following rainstorms. We conclude that Bayesian piecewise regression sheds new and unbiased insights on the duration, trend, and variance of streamflow response to strong earthquakes, and on how this response compares to that following rainstorms.
KW  - Bayesian analysis
KW  - Chile
KW  - discharge
KW  - earthquake
KW  - streamflow changes
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020WR028874
SN  - 0043-1397
SN  - 1944-7973
VL  - 57
IS  - 7
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken, NJ
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Koç, Gamze
T1  - A comprehensive analysis of severe flood events in Turkey
T1  - Eine ausführliche Analyse schwerer Flutereignisse in der Türkei
BT  - event documentation, triggering mechanisms and impact modelling
BT  - Ereignisdokumentation, Auslösemechanismen und Auswirkungsmodellierung
N2  - Over the past decades, natural hazards, many of which are aggravated by climate change and reveal an increasing trend in frequency and intensity, have caused significant human and economic losses and pose a considerable obstacle to sustainable development. Hence, dedicated action toward disaster risk reduction is needed to understand the underlying drivers and create efficient risk mitigation plans. Such action is requested by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), a global agreement launched in 2015 that establishes stating priorities for action, e.g. an improved understanding of disaster risk. Turkey is one of the SFDRR contracting countries and has been severely affected by many natural hazards, in particular earthquakes and floods. However, disproportionately little is known about flood hazards and risks in Turkey. Therefore, this thesis aims to carry out a comprehensive analysis of flood hazards for the first time in Turkey from triggering drivers to impacts. It is intended to contribute to a better understanding of flood risks, improvements of flood risk mitigation and the facilitated monitoring of progress and achievements while implementing the SFDRR.
In order to investigate the occurrence and severity of flooding in comparison to other natural hazards in Turkey and provide an overview of the temporal and spatial distribution of flood losses, the Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) was examined for the years 1960-2014. The TABB database was reviewed through comparison with the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT), the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database, the scientific literature and news archives. In addition, data on the most severe flood events between 1960 and 2014 were retrieved. These served as a basis for analyzing triggering mechanisms (i.e. atmospheric circulation and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e. topographic features, catchment size, land use types and soil properties). For this, a new approach was developed and the events were classified using hierarchical cluster analyses to identify the main influencing factor per event and provide additional information about the dominant flood pathways for severe floods. The main idea of the study was to start with the event impacts based on a bottom-up approach and identify the causes that created damaging events, instead of applying a model chain with long-term series as input and searching for potentially impacting events as model outcomes.  However, within the frequency analysis of the flood-triggering circulation pattern types, it was discovered that events in terms of heavy precipitation were not included in the list of most severe floods, i.e. their impacts were not recorded in national and international loss databases but were mentioned in news archives and reported by the Turkish State Meteorological Service. This finding challenges bottom-up modelling approaches and underlines the urgent need for consistent event and loss documentation. Therefore, as a next step, the aim was to enhance the flood loss documentation by calibrating, validating and applying the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) loss estimation method for the recent severe flood events (2015-2020). This provided, a consistent flood loss estimation model for Turkey, allowing governments to estimate losses as quickly as possible after events, e.g. to better coordinate financial aid.
This thesis reveals that, after earthquakes, floods have the second most destructive effects in Turkey in terms of human and economic impacts, with over 800 fatalities and US$ 885.7 million in economic losses between 1960 and 2020, and that more attention should be paid on the national scale. The clustering results of the dominant flood-producing mechanisms (e.g. circulation pattern types, extreme rainfall, sudden snowmelt) present crucial information regarding the source and pathway identification, which can be used as base information for hazard identification in the preliminary risk assessment process. The implementation of the UNDRR loss estimation model shows that the model with country-specific parameters, calibrated damage ratios and sufficient event documentation (i.e. physically damaged units) can be recommended in order to provide first estimates of the magnitude of direct economic losses, even shortly after events have occurred, since it performed well when estimates were compared to documented losses.
The presented results can contribute to improving the national disaster loss database in Turkey and thus enable a better monitoring of the national progress and achievements with regard to the targets stated by the SFDRR. In addition, the outcomes can be used to better characterize and classify flood events. Information on the main underlying factors and aggravating flood pathways further supports the selection of suitable risk reduction policies.
All input variables used in this thesis were obtained from publicly available data. The results are openly accessible and can be used for further research.
As an overall conclusion, it can be stated that consistent loss data collection and better event documentation should gain more attention for a reliable monitoring of the implementation of the SFDRR. Better event documentation should be established according to a globally accepted standard for disaster classification and loss estimation in Turkey. Ultimately, this enables stakeholders to create better risk mitigation actions based on clear hazard definitions, flood event classification and consistent loss estimations.
N2  - In den letzten Jahrzehnten verursachten Naturgefahren hohe humanitäre und wirtschaftliche Verluste, wobei viele dieser Ereignisse durch den Klimawandel verstärkt werden und einen zunehmenden Trend in Häufigkeit und Schwere aufweisen. Daher sind gezielte Verfahren zur Reduzierung von Katastrophenrisiken erforderlich, um zugrundeliegende Treiber zu verstehen und effektive Risikominderungspläne zu erstellen. Solche Verfahren werden durch das Sendai-Rahmenwerk für Katastrophenvorsorge 2015-2030 (SFDRR) eingefordert. Das SFDRR ist, ein internationales Rahmenwerk, das 2015 verabschiedet wurde und prioritäre Maßnahmen festlegt, z.B. eine Verbesserung der Wissensgrundlagen zum Katastrophenrisiko. Die Türkei ist eines der SFDRR-Vertragsländer und wurde in der Vergangenheit von vielen Naturgefahren, insbesondere Erdbeben und Überschwemmungen schwer getroffen. Über die Hochwassergefahren und -risiken in der Türkei ist jedoch vergleichsweise wenig bekannt. In dieser Arbeit wird daher zum ersten Mal eine umfassende Analyse der Hochwassergefahren in der Türkei durchgeführt, von den auslösenden Ursachen bis hin zu den Auswirkungen. Ziel ist es, das Verständnis über Hochwasserrisiken zu verbessern, Studien zur Minderung des Hochwasserrisikos anzuregen und das Monitoring der Fortschritte und Zielerreichung bei der Umsetzung des SFDRR zu erleichtern.
Um das Auftreten und die Stärke von Überschwemmungen im Vergleich zu anderen Naturgefahren in der Türkei zu untersuchen und einen Überblick über die raumzeitliche Verteilung von Hochwasserschäden, wurde die Turkey Disaster Database (TABB) für den Zeitraum 1960 bis 2014 ausgewertet. Die TABB Datenbank  wurde durch Vergleiche mit der Emergency Events Datenbank (EM-DAT), der Dartmouth Flood Observatory Datenbank, wissenschaftlicher Literatur und Nachrichtenarchive überprüft. Zudem wurden die stärksten Überschwemmungen zwischen 1960 und 2014 identifiziert. Diese bildeten die Basis für eine Analyse der Auslösemechanismen (bspw. atmosphärische Zirkulationsmuster und Niederschlagsmengen) und verstärkende Wirkungspfade (z.B. topographische Eigenschaften, Größe der Einzugsgebiete, Landnutzung und Bodeneigenschaften). Dafür wurde ein neues Verfahren entwickelt, und die Ereignisse wurden mithilfe von hierarchischen Clusteranalysen klassifiziert, um die Haupteinflussfaktoren pro Ereignis zu identifizieren und zusätzliche Informationen über die dominanten Wirkungspfade bei schweren Überschwemmungen bereitzustellen. Die grundlegende Idee dieser Arbeit bestand darin, bei den Ereignisauswirkungen als Bottom-up-Ansatz zu beginnen und die Ursachen für Schadensereignisse zu identifizieren, anstatt eine Modellkette mit Langzeitreihen als Eingabe anzuwenden und darin nach potenziellen Schadensereignissen zu suchen. Bei der Häufigkeitsanalyse von hochwasserauslösenden Zirkulationsmustern wurde jedoch festgestellt, dass einige schwer Niederschlagsereignisse nicht in der Liste der schwersten Hochwasserereignisse waren, d.h., ihre Auswirkungen waren nicht in nationalen und internationalen Schadensdatenbanken dokumentiert, wurden jedoch in Nachrichtenarchiven erwähnt und vom türkischen staatlichen Wetterdienst gemeldet. Dieses Erkenntnis stellt den Bottom-up-Modelansatz in Frage und unterstreicht die Dringlichkeit einer konsistenten Ereignis- und Schadensdokumentation. Daher wurde im nächsten Schritt gezielt das Schadenmodell der Vereinten Nationen für Katastrophenvorsorge (UNDRR) für kürzlich aufgetretene starke Flutereignisse (2015-2020) angepasst, validiert und angewendet. Damit wurde ein konsistentes Hochwasserschadenmodell für die Türkei bereitgestellt, das es den Behörden ermöglicht, Verluste so schnell wie möglich nach Ereignissen abzuschätzen, zum Beispiel um eine bessere Koordination von finanziellen Hilfen zu gewährleisten.
Diese Arbeit zeigt, dass Überschwemmungen mit mehr als 800 Todesfällen und 885,7 Millionen US Dollar wirtschaftlichen Schaden zwischen 1960 und 2020 nach Erdbeben den zweit höchsten zerstörerischen Effekt in der Türkei in Bezug auf humanitäre und wirtschaftliche Auswirkungen haben. Daher sollte dieses Thema mehr Aufmerksamkeit auf nationaler Ebene erhalten. Die Cluster-Ergebnisse der dominanten hochwasser-auslösenden Mechanismen (z.B. Zirkulationsmuster, Starkniederschlag, plötzliche Schneeschmelze) erhalten wichtige Informationen zur Quell- und Pfad-Identifikation, welche als Basisinformation für Gefahren-identifikation in der vorläufigen Risikoeinschätzung dienen kann.
Die Implementierung des UNDRR-Schadenmodells zeigt, dass das Modell mit länderspezifischen Parametern, kalibrierten Schadensgraden und ausreichender Ereignisdokumentation (d.h. physischer geschädigte Einheiten) empfohlen werden kann, um erste Schätzungen zur Höhe der direkten wirtschaftlichen Schäden bereitzustellen -- auch unmittelbar nach Eintreten von Ereignissen, da die Modellschätzungen im Vergleich mit dokumentierten Verlusten gut übereinstimmten. Die präsentierten Ergebnisse können dazu beitragen, die nationale Schadensdatenbank der Türkei zu verbessern, und somit ein besseres Monitoring der nationalen Fortschritte und Erfolge im Hinblick auf die Ziele des SFDRR ermöglichen. Zusätzlich können die Ergebnisse für eine bessere Charakterisierung und Klassifizierung von Hochwasserereignissen verwendet werden. Informationen zu den zugrundeliegenden Einflussfaktoren und verstärkenden Wirkungspfaden unterstützen die Auswahl geeigneter Risikomanagementstrategien.
Alle Eingabevariablen dieser Arbeit wurden aus öffentlich verfügbaren Daten bezogen. Die Ergebnisse sind zugänglich und können für die weitere Forschung verwendet werden.
Insgesamt konnte festgestellt werden, dass die konsistente Erfassung von Schadensdaten und eine bessere Ereignisdokumentation mehr Beachtung finden muss, um die Implementierung des SFDRR verlässlich zu überwachen. Bessere Ereignisdokumentationen sollten nach einem weltweit anerkannten Standard für Gefahrenklassifizierung und Schadensabschätzung in der Türkei etabliert werden. Letztendlich ermöglicht dies den Verantwortlichen auf Basis von eindeutigen Gefahrendefinitionen, Hochwasser-Ereignisklassifizierungen und konsistenten Schadenschätzungen bessere Maßnahmen zur Risikominderung zu erarbeiten.
KW  - Flood hazards
KW  - Turkey
KW  - Triggering mechanisms
KW  - Cluster analysis
KW  - Hochwassergefahren
KW  - Türkei
KW  - Auslösemechanismen
KW  - Clusteranalyse
KW  - Impact modelling
KW  - Schadenmodell
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517853
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Koç, Gamze
A1  - Natho, Stephanie
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Estimating direct economic impacts of severe flood events in Turkey (2015-2020)
JF  - International journal of disaster risk reduction : IJDRR
N2  - Over the past decades, floods have caused significant financial losses in Turkey, amounting to US$ 800 million between 1960 and 2014. With the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (SFDRR), it is aimed to reduce the direct economic loss from disasters in relation to the global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Accordingly, a methodology based on experiences from developing countries was proposed by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) to estimate direct economic losses on the macro-scale. Since Turkey also signed the SFDRR, we aimed to adapt, validate and apply the loss estimation model proposed by the UNDRR in Turkey for the first time. To do so, the well-documented flood event in Mersin of 2016 was used to calibrate the damage ratios for the agricultural, commercial and residential sectors, as well as educational facilities. Case studies between 2015 and 2020 with documented losses were further used to validate the model. Finally, model applications provided initial loss estimates for floods occurred recently in Turkey. Despite the limited event documentation for each sector, the calibrated model yielded good results when compared to documented losses. Thus, by implementing the UNDRR method, this study provides an approach to estimate the direct economic losses in Turkey on the macro-scale, which can be used to fill gaps in event databases, support the coordination of financial aid after flood events and facilitate monitoring of the progress toward and achievement of Global Target C of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030.
KW  - Direct economic loss
KW  - Flood
KW  - Turkey
KW  - Event documentation
KW  - UNISDR
KW  - Loss
KW  - modelling
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102222
SN  - 2212-4209
VL  - 58
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Krummenauer, Linda
A1  - Costa, Luís Fílípe Carvalho da
A1  - Prahl, Boris F.
A1  - Kropp, Jürgen
T1  - Future heat adaptation and exposure among urban populations and why a prospering economy alone won’t save us
JF  - Scientific reports
N2  - When inferring on the magnitude of future heat-related mortality due to climate change, human adaptation to heat should be accounted for. We model long-term changes in minimum mortality temperatures (MMT), a well-established metric denoting the lowest risk of heat-related mortality, as a function of climate change and socio-economic progress across 3820 cities. Depending on the combination of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways evaluated, by 2100 the risk to human health is expected to decline in 60% to 80% of the cities against contemporary conditions. This is caused by an average global increase in MMTs driven by long-term human acclimatisation to future climatic conditions and economic development of countries. While our adaptation model suggests that negative effects on health from global warming can broadly be kept in check, the trade-offs are highly contingent to the scenario path and location-specific. For high-forcing climate scenarios (e.g. RCP8.5) the maintenance of uninterrupted high economic growth by 2100 is a hard requirement to increase MMTs and level-off the negative health effects from additional scenario-driven heat exposure. Choosing a 2 degrees C-compatible climate trajectory alleviates the dependence on fast growth, leaving room for a sustainable economy, and leads to higher reductions of mortality risk.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-99757-0
SN  - 2045-2322
VL  - 11
IS  - 1
PB  - Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature
CY  - Berlin
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lange, Bastian
A1  - Bürkner, Hans-Joachim
T1  - Geographien experimenteller Arbeitsformen
BT  - offene Werkstätten als Auskunftgeber über Mikro-Produktionsstandorte in Postwachstumskontexten
JF  - Mitteilungen der Österreichischen Geographischen Gesellschaft
N2  - Die Diskussion um Postwachstumsprozesse hat die kleinen, früher unbeachtet gebliebenen Orte der Innovation entdeckt. Ungeplant und unkoordiniert entstandene Produktions- und Arbeitsformen wie zum Beispiel Fab Labs, Offene Werkstätten, Reallabore, Techshops, Repair Cafés und andere entziehen sich weitgehend den gewohnten Erklärungs- und Beschreibungskategorien der sozialwissenschaftlichen Forschung. Die Komplexität ihrer Erscheinungsformen, ihre heterogene Verursachung, ihre kontingente Weiterentwicklung und ihre hybriden Arbeitsprozesse erfordern ergebnisoffene analytische Rekonstruktionen. Das Ziel dieses Beitrags ist es, auf der Basis praxisnaher Tätigkeitsbeschreibungen jeweils Prozesse der Raumkontextualisierung und -zuschreibung zu rekonstruieren. Dies geschieht auf der Basis der leitenden Frage, inwieweit neue Arbeitsformen mit spezifischen Raumbezügen einhergehen und eine differenzierte Sicht auf unterschiedliche Prozesse der Ortsbildung erforderlich machen. Als analytischer Referenzfall werden Offene Werkstätten und die in ihnen vorherrschenden Arbeitsformen genauer betrachtet.
KW  - experimentelle Arbeitsformen
KW  - Innovationsorte
KW  - Hybridität
KW  - Alltagskultur und Ökonomie
KW  - Heterogenität
KW  - Wertschöpfung
Y1  - 2021
SN  - 978-3-901313-34-9
SN  - 978-3-7001-8885-8
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1553/moegg162s287
SN  - 0029-9138
SN  - 2708-0307
VL  - 162
SP  - 287
EP  - 312
PB  - Österreichische Geographische Gesellschaft
CY  - Wien
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lange, Bastian
A1  - Bürkner, Hans-Joachim
T1  - Ambiguous avant-gardes and their geographies
BT  - on blank spots of the postgrowth debate
JF  - Die Erde : journal of the Geographical Society of Berlin ; Zeitschrift der Gesellschaft für Erdkunde zu Berlin
N2  - In the following article, the focus is on the transformative potentials created by so-called persistence avant-gardes and prevention innovators. The text extends Bluhdorn's guiding concept of narratives of hope (Bluhdorn 2017; Bluhdorn and Butzlaff 2019) by considering those groups that are marginalized within debates on socio-ecological transformation. With a closer look at the narratives of prevention and blockade that these actors engage, the ambiguous nature of postgrowth avant-gardes is carved out. Their discursive, argumentative, and effective inhibition of transitory policies is interpreted as a pro-active potential, rather than a mere obstacle to socio-ecological transformation. Adding a geographical perspective, the paper pleads for a more precise theoretical penetration of the ambivalent figure of avantgardes when analyzing processes of local and regional postgrowth.
N2  - Mit dem Beitrag richten wir den Fokus auf transformative Potenziale, die von sogenannten Beharrungsavantgar-den  und  Präventionsinnovatoren  ausgehen.  Der  Text  erweitert  Blühdorns  Leitkonzept  der  Hoffnungsnarrative  (Blühdorn 2017; Blühdorn and Butzlaff 2019), indem er jene Gruppen in den Blick nimmt, die in den Debatten um die sozial-ökologische Transformation marginalisiert werden. Mit einem genaueren Blick auf die Präventions- und Blockade-Narrative dieser Akteure wird die Mehrdeutigkeit der Postwachstumsavantgarden herausgear-beitet. Ihre diskursive, argumentative und effektive Verhinderung transitorischer Politiken wird als proaktives Potenzial und nicht als bloßes Hindernis für eine sozial-ökologische Transformation interpretiert. Unter Hinzu-nahme  einer  geographischen  Perspektive  plädiert  der  Beitrag  für  eine  präzisere  theoretische  Durchdringung  der ambivalenten Figur der Avantgarden bei der Analyse lokaler und regionaler Postwachstumsvorgänge.
KW  - alternative economies
KW  - transformative policies
KW  - change agents
KW  - postgrowth
KW  - regional development
KW  - East Germany
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.12854/erde-2021-566
SN  - 0013-9998
VL  - 152
IS  - 4
SP  - 273
EP  - 287
PB  - Gesellschaft für Erdkunde
CY  - Berlin
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Li, Yunfei
A1  - Rybski, Diego
A1  - Kropp, Jürgen
T1  - Singularity cities
JF  - Environment and planning. B, Urban analytics and city science
N2  - We propose an upgraded gravitational model which provides population counts beyond the binary (urban/non-urban) city simulations. Numerically studying the model output, we find that the radial population density gradients follow power-laws where the exponent is related to the preset gravity exponent gamma. Similarly, the urban fraction decays exponentially, again determined by gamma. The population density gradient can be related to radial fractality and it turns out that the typical exponents imply that cities are basically zero-dimensional. Increasing the gravity exponent leads to extreme compactness and the loss of radial symmetry. We study the shape of the major central cluster by means of another three fractal dimensions and find that overall its fractality is dominated by the size and the influence of gamma is minor. The fundamental allometry, between population and area of the major central cluster, is related to the gravity exponent but restricted to the case of higher densities in large cities. We argue that cities are shaped by power-law proximity. We complement the numerical analysis by economics arguments employing travel costs as well as housing rent determined by supply and demand. Our work contributes to the understanding of gravitational effects, radial gradients, and urban morphology. The model allows to generate and investigate city structures under laboratory conditions.
KW  - Gravity models
KW  - population density
KW  - urban fraction
KW  - fractal geometry
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1177/2399808319843534
SN  - 2399-8083
SN  - 2399-8091
VL  - 48
IS  - 1
SP  - 43
EP  - 59
PB  - Sage Publ.
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Macdonald, Elena
A1  - Otero, Noelia
A1  - Butler, Tim
T1  - A comparison of long-term trends in observations and emission inventories of NOx
JF  - Atmospheric chemistry and physics / European Geosciences Union
N2  - Air pollution is a pressing issue that is associated with adverse effects on human health, ecosystems, and climate. Despite many years of effort to improve air quality, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) limit values are still regularly exceeded in Europe, particularly in cities and along streets. This study explores how concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) in European urban areas have changed over the last decades and how this relates to changes in emissions. To do so, the incremental approach was used, comparing urban increments (i.e. urban background minus rural concentrations) to total emissions, and roadside increments (i.e. urban roadside concentrations minus urban background concentrations) to traffic emissions. In total, nine European cities were assessed. The study revealed that potentially confounding factors like the impact of urban pollution at rural monitoring sites through atmospheric transport are generally negligible for NOx. The approach proves therefore particularly useful for this pollutant. The estimated urban increments all showed downward trends, and for the majority of the cities the trends aligned well with the total emissions. However, it was found that factors like a very densely populated surrounding or local emission sources in the rural area such as shipping traffic on inland waterways restrict the application of the approach for some cities. The roadside increments showed an overall very diverse picture in their absolute values and trends and also in their relation to traffic emissions. This variability and the discrepancies between roadside increments and emissions could be attributed to a combination of local influencing factors at the street level and different aspects introducing inaccuracies to the trends of the emis-sion inventories used, including deficient emission factors. Applying the incremental approach was evaluated as useful for long-term pan-European studies, but at the same time it was found to be restricted to certain regions and cities due to data availability issues. The results also highlight that using emission inventories for the prediction of future health impacts and compliance with limit values needs to consider the distinct variability in the concentrations not only across but also within cities.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-4007-2021
SN  - 1680-7316
SN  - 1680-7324
VL  - 21
IS  - 5
SP  - 4007
EP  - 4023
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Madruga de Brito, Mariana
A1  - Otto, Danny
A1  - Kuhlicke, Christian
T1  - Tracking topics and frames regarding sustainability transformations during the onset of the COVID-19 crisis
JF  - Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
N2  - Many researchers and politicians believe that the COVID-19 crisis may have opened a "window of opportunity " to spur sustainability transformations. Still, evidence for such a dynamic is currently lacking. Here, we propose the linkage of "big data " and "thick data " methods for monitoring debates on transformation processes by following the COVID-19 discourse on ecological sustainability in Germany. We analysed variations in the topics discussed by applying text mining techniques to a corpus with 84,500 newspaper articles published during the first COVID-19 wave. This allowed us to attain a unique and previously inaccessible "bird's eye view " of how these topics evolved. To deepen our understanding of prominent frames, a qualitative content analysis was undertaken. Furthermore, we investigated public awareness by analysing online search behaviour. The findings show an underrepresentation of sustainability topics in the German news during the early stages of the crisis. Similarly, public awareness regarding climate change was found to be reduced. Nevertheless, by examining the newspaper data in detail, we found that the pandemic is often seen as a chance for sustainability transformations-but not without a set of challenges. Our mixed-methods approach enabled us to bridge knowledge gaps between qualitative and quantitative research by "thickening " and providing context to data-driven analyses. By monitoring whether or not the current crisis is seen as a chance for sustainability transformations, we provide insights for environmental policy in times of crisis.
KW  - frames
KW  - SDG
KW  - green deal
KW  - content analysis
KW  - natural language processing
KW  - NLP
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/su131911095
SN  - 2071-1050
VL  - 13
IS  - 19
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Mahata, Khadak Singh
T1  - Spatiotemporal variations of key air pollutants and greenhouse gases in the Himalayan foothills
T1  - Raumzeitliche Variationen der wichtigsten Luftschadstoffe und Treibhausgase in den Ausläufern des Himalaya
N2  - South Asia is a rapidly developing, densely populated and highly polluted region that is facing the impacts of increasing air pollution and climate change, and yet it remains one of the least studied regions of the world scientifically. In recognition of this situation, this thesis focuses on studying (i) the spatial and temporal variation of key greenhouse gases (CO2 and CH4) and air pollutants (CO and O3) and (ii) the vertical distribution of air pollutants (PM, BC) in the foothills of the Himalaya. Five sites were selected in the Kathmandu Valley, the capital region of Nepal, along with two sites outside of the valley in the Makawanpur and Kaski districts, and conducted measurements during the period of 2013-2014 and 2016. These measurements are analyzed in this thesis.   
The CO measurements at multiple sites in the Kathmandu Valley showed a clear diurnal cycle: morning and evening levels were high, with an afternoon dip. There are slight differences in the diurnal cycles of CO2 and CH4, with the CO2 and CH4 mixing ratios increasing after the afternoon dip, until the morning peak the next day. The mixing layer height (MLH) of the nocturnal stable layer is relatively constant (~ 200 m) during the night, after which it transitions to a convective mixing layer during the day and the MLH increases up to 1200 m in the afternoon. Pollutants are thus largely trapped in the valley from the evening until sunrise the following day, and the concentration of pollutants increases due to emissions during the night. During afternoon, the pollutants are diluted due to the circulation by the valley winds after the break-up of the mixing layer. The major emission sources of GHGs and air pollutants in the valley are transport sector, residential cooking, brick kilns, trash burning, and agro-residue burning. Brick industries are influential in the winter and pre-monsoon season. The contribution of regional forest fires and agro-residue burning are seen during the pre-monsoon season. In addition, relatively higher CO values were also observed at the valley outskirts (Bhimdhunga and Naikhandi), which indicates the contribution of regional emission sources. This was also supported by the presence of higher concentrations of O3 during the pre-monsoon season. 
The mixing ratios of CO2 (419.3 ±6.0 ppm) and CH4 (2.192 ±0.066 ppm) in the valley were much higher than at background sites, including the Mauna Loa observatory (CO2: 396.8 ± 2.0 ppm, CH4:1.831 ± 0.110 ppm) and Waligaun (CO2: 397.7 ± 3.6 ppm, CH4: 1.879 ± 0.009 ppm), China, as well as at an urban site Shadnagar (CH4: 1.92 ± 0.07 ppm) in India. 

The daily 8 hour maximum O3 average in the Kathmandu Valley exceeds the WHO recommended value during more than 80% of the days during the pre-monsoon period, which represents a significant risk for human health and ecosystems in the region. Moreover, in the measurements of the vertical distribution of particulate matter, which were made using an ultralight aircraft, and are the first of their kind in the region, an elevated polluted layer at around ca. 3000 m asl. was detected over the Pokhara Valley. The layer could be associated with the large-scale regional transport of pollution. These contributions towards understanding the distributions of key air pollutants and their main sources will provide helpful information for developing management plans and policies to help reduce the risks for the millions of people living in the region.
N2  - Südasien ist eine sich schnell entwickelnde, dicht besiedelte und stark umweltbelastete Region, die mit den Auswirkungen der zunehmenden Luftverschmutzung und des Klimawandels konfrontiert ist, und dennoch bleibt sie wissenschaftlich gesehen eine der am wenigsten untersuchten Regionen der Welt. In Anerkennung dieser Situation liegt der Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit auf der Untersuchung (i) der räumlichen und zeitlichen Variation der wichtigsten Treibhausgase (CO2 und CH4) und Luftschadstoffe (CO und O3) und (ii) der vertikalen Verteilung der Luftverschmutzung (PM, BC) in den Vorgebirgen des Himalayas. Fünf Standorte wurden im Kathmandu-Tal, der Hauptstadtregion Nepals, sowie zwei Standorte außerhalb des Tals in den Distrikten Makawanpur und Kaski ausgewählt und im Zeitraum 2013-2014 und 2016 wurden Messungen durchgeführt. Diese Messungen werden in dieser Arbeit analysiert.
Die CO-Messungen an mehreren Standorten im Kathmandu-Tal zeigten einen klaren Tagesablauf: Die Werte am Morgen und am Abend waren hoch, mit einem Rückgang am Nachmittag. Es gibt leichte Unterschiede in den Tageszyklen von CO2 und CH4, wobei die Mischungsverhältnisse von CO2 und CH4 nach dem Nachmittagsdip bis zu den höchsten Werten am nächsten Morgen zunehmen. Die Höhe der nächtlichen stabilen planetaren Grenzschicht ist relativ konstant (~ 200 m), danach geht sie tagsüber in eine konvektive Mischschicht über und die MLH ("Mixing layer height") steigt am Nachmittag auf bis zu 1400 m an. So werden Schadstoffe vom Abend bis zum Sonnenaufgang des folgenden Tages weitgehend im Tal gefangen, und die Schadstoffkonzentration steigt durch nächtliche Emissionen an. Während des Nachmittags werden die Schadstoffe aufgrund der Zirkulation durch die Talwinde nach dem Aufbrechen der Mischschicht verdünnt. Die Hauptemissionsquellen für GHGs und Luftschadstoffe im Tal sind der Verkehrssektor, das Kochen in privaten Haushalten, Ziegeleien, die Müllverbrennung und die Verbrennung von landwirtschaftlichen Reststoffen. Die Ziegelindustrie ist in der Winter- und Vormonsunzeit von großer Bedeutung für die Emissionen von Ruß. Der Beitrag der regionalen Waldbrände und der Verbrennung von landwirtschaftlichen Reststoffen ist besonders wichtig in der Vormonsunzeit. Darüber hinaus wurden auch am Talrand (Bhimdhunga und Naikhandi) relativ hohe CO-Werte beobachtet, was auf den Beitrag der regionalen Emissionsquellen hinweist. Dies wurde auch durch das Vorhandensein höherer Konzentrationen von O3 während der Vormonsunzeit unterstützt.
Die Mischungsverhältnisse von CO2 (419,3 ±6,0 ppmv) und CH4 (2.192 ±0,066 ppmv) im Tal waren viel höher als an bekannten Hintergrundstandorten, darunter das Observatorium Mauna Loa (CO2: 396,8 ± 2,0 ppmv, CH4:1.831 ± 0,110 ppmv) und Waligaun (CO2: 397,7 ± 3,6 ppmv, CH4: 1,879 ± 0,009 ppmv), China, sowie an einem städtischen Standort Shadnagar (CH4: 1,92 ± 0,07 ppmv) in Indien.	
Der tägliche 8-stündige maximale O3-Durchschnitt im Kathmandu-Tal übersteigt den WHO-Empfehlungswert an mehr als 80% der Tage während der Vormonsunzeit, was ein erhebliches Risiko für die menschliche Gesundheit und die Ökosysteme in der Region darstellt. Darüber hinaus wurde bei den Messungen der vertikalen Verteilung der Feinstaubpartikel, die mit einem Ultraleichtflugzeug durchgeführt wurden und die ersten ihrer Art in der Region sind, eine höherliegende verschmutzte Schicht, ca. 3000 m über dem mittleren Meeresspiegel über dem Pokhara-Tal, festgestellt. Die Schicht könnte mit dem großräumigen regionalen Transport von Schadstoffen in Verbindung gebracht werden. Diese Beiträge zum Verständnis der Verteilung der wichtigsten Luftschadstoffe und ihrer Hauptquellen werden hilfreiche Informationen für die Entwicklung von Mitigationsplänen und -strategien liefern, die dazu beitragen, die Risiken für die Millionen von Menschen, die in der Region leben, zu verringern.
KW  - Air pollution
KW  - Greenhouse gases
KW  - Himalayan foothills
KW  - Luftverschmutzung
KW  - Treibhausgase
KW  - Ausläufer des Himalaya
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-519910
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Mester, Benedikt
A1  - Willner, Sven N.
A1  - Frieler, Katja
A1  - Schewe, Jacob
T1  - Evaluation of river flood extent simulated with multiple global hydrological models and climate forcings
JF  - Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics
N2  - Global flood models (GFMs) are increasingly being used to estimate global-scale societal and economic risks of river flooding. Recent validation studies have highlighted substantial differences in performance between GFMs and between validation sites. However, it has not been systematically quantified to what extent the choice of the underlying climate forcing and global hydrological model (GHM) influence flood model performance. Here, we investigate this sensitivity by comparing simulated flood extent to satellite imagery of past flood events, for an ensemble of three climate reanalyses and 11 GHMs. We study eight historical flood events spread over four continents and various climate zones. For most regions, the simulated inundation extent is relatively insensitive to the choice of GHM. For some events, however, individual GHMs lead to much lower agreement with observations than the others, mostly resulting from an overestimation of inundated areas. Two of the climate forcings show very similar results, while with the third, differences between GHMs become more pronounced. We further show that when flood protection standards are accounted for, many models underestimate flood extent, pointing to deficiencies in their flood frequency distribution. Our study guides future applications of these models, and highlights regions and models where targeted improvements might yield the largest performance gains.
KW  - global flood model
KW  - validation
KW  - model intercomparison
KW  - flood risk
KW  - global hydrological model
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac188d
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 16
IS  - 9
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Metin Usta, Ayşe Duha
T1  - The role of risk components and spatial dependence in flood risk estimations
N2  - Flooding is a vast problem in many parts of the world, including Europe. It occurs mainly due to extreme weather conditions (e.g. heavy rainfall and snowmelt) and the consequences of flood events can be devastating. Flood risk is mainly defined as a combination of the probability of an event and its potential adverse impacts. Therefore, it covers three major dynamic components: hazard (physical characteristics of a flood event), exposure (people and their physical environment that being exposed to flood), and vulnerability (the elements at risk). Floods are natural phenomena and cannot be fully prevented. However, their risk can be managed and mitigated. For a sound flood risk management and mitigation, a proper risk assessment is needed. First of all, this is attained by a clear understanding of the flood risk dynamics. For instance, human activity may contribute to an increase in flood risk. Anthropogenic climate change causes higher intensity of rainfall and sea level rise and therefore an increase in scale and frequency of the flood events. On the other hand, inappropriate management of risk and structural protection measures may not be very effective for risk reduction. Additionally, due to the growth of number of assets and people within the flood-prone areas, risk increases. To address these issues, the first objective of this thesis is to perform a sensitivity analysis to understand the impacts of changes in each flood risk component on overall risk and further their mutual interactions. A multitude of changes along the risk chain are simulated by regional flood model (RFM) where all processes from atmosphere through catchment and river system to damage mechanisms are taken into consideration. The impacts of changes in risk components are explored by plausible change scenarios for the mesoscale Mulde catchment (sub-basin of the Elbe) in Germany.
	A proper risk assessment is ensured by the reasonable representation of the real-world flood event. Traditionally, flood risk is assessed by assuming homogeneous return periods of flood peaks throughout the considered catchment. However, in reality, flood events are spatially heterogeneous and therefore traditional assumption misestimates flood risk especially for large regions. In this thesis, two different studies investigate the importance of spatial dependence in large scale flood risk assessment for different spatial scales. In the first one, the “real” spatial dependence of return period of flood damages is represented by continuous risk modelling approach where spatially coherent patterns of hydrological and meteorological controls (i.e. soil moisture and weather patterns) are included. Further the risk estimations under this modelled dependence assumption are compared with two other assumptions on the spatial dependence of return periods of flood damages: complete dependence (homogeneous return periods) and independence (randomly generated heterogeneous return periods) for the Elbe catchment in Germany. The second study represents the “real” spatial dependence by multivariate dependence models. Similar to the first study, the three different assumptions on the spatial dependence of return periods of flood damages are compared, but at national (United Kingdom and Germany) and continental (Europe) scales. Furthermore, the impacts of the different models, tail dependence, and the structural flood protection level on the flood risk under different spatial dependence assumptions are investigated. 
	The outcomes of the sensitivity analysis framework suggest that flood risk can vary dramatically as a result of possible change scenarios. The risk components that have not received much attention (e.g. changes in dike systems and in vulnerability) may mask the influence of climate change that is often investigated component. 
	The results of the spatial dependence research in this thesis further show that the damage under the false assumption of complete dependence is 100 % larger than the damage under the modelled dependence assumption, for the events with return periods greater than approximately 200 years in the Elbe catchment. The complete dependence assumption overestimates the 200-year flood damage, a benchmark indicator for the insurance industry, by 139 %, 188 % and 246 % for the UK, Germany and Europe, respectively. The misestimation of risk under different assumptions can vary from upstream to downstream of the catchment. Besides, tail dependence in the model and flood protection level in the catchments can affect the risk estimation and the differences between different spatial dependence assumptions.   
	In conclusion, the broader consideration of the risk components, which possibly affect the flood risk in a comprehensive way, and the consideration of the spatial dependence of flood return periods are strongly recommended for a better understanding of flood risk and consequently for a sound flood risk management and mitigation.
N2  - Hochwasser sind ein großes Problem und treten hauptsächlich aufgrund extremer Wetterbedingungen (z. B. starker Regen und Schneeschmelze) auf. Die Folgen von Hochwasserereignissen können verheerend sein. Das Konzept des Hochwasserrisikos beinhaltet die drei Komponenten: Gefahr, Exposition und Vulnerabilität. Hochwasser sind natürliche Phänomene und können nicht sicher verhindert werden. Das Risiko kann jedoch gesteuert und gemindert werden. Für ein solides Hochwasserrisikomanagement und die Minderung des Risikos ist eine ordnungsgemäße Risikobewertung und ein klares Verständnis der Hochwasserrisikodynamik erforderlich. Beispielsweise verursacht der anthropogene Klimawandel eine höhere Intensität der Niederschläge und einen Anstieg des Meeresspiegels und damit eine Zunahme des Ausmaßes und der Häufigkeit von Hochwasserereignissen. Andererseits können unangemessene strukturelle Schutzmaßnahmen, das Anwachsen von Vermögenswerten und eine steigende Anzahl betroffener Personen in den hochwassergefährdeten Gebieten das Risiko erhöhen. Um diese Probleme zu adressieren, besteht ein Ziel dieser Arbeit aus der Durchführung einer Sensitivitätsanalyse, um die Auswirkungen von Änderungen in jeder Hochwasserrisikokomponente auf das Gesamtrisiko und deren Wechselwirkungen untereinander zu verstehen.
	Eine angemessene Risikobewertung wird auch durch die korrekte k Darstellung des realen Hochwasserereignisses erreicht. Traditionell wird das Hochwasserrisiko bewertet, indem homogene Wiederkehrintervalle von Hochwasserspitzen im gesamten Einzugsgebiet angenommen werden. In der Realität sind Hochwasserereignisse jedoch räumlich heterogen, weshalb die traditionelle Annahme von Homogenität das Hochwasserrisiko insbesondere für große Einzugsgebiete falsch einschätzt. In dieser Arbeit wird die Bedeutung der räumlichen Abhängigkeit bei der Bewertung des Hochwasserrisikos in großem Maßstab in zwei Studien für verschiedene räumliche Skalen untersucht. In der ersten Untersuchung wird die „reale“ räumliche Abhängigkeit durch einen kontinuierlichen Risikomodellierungsansatz dargestellt. Zusätzlich werden die Risikoabschätzungen unter dieser modellierten Abhängigkeitsannahme mit zwei weiteren Annahmen zur räumlichen Abhängigkeit der Wiederkehrintervalle von Hochwasser verglichen: vollständige Abhängigkeit und Unabhängigkeit für das Elbeeinzugsgebiet in Deutschland. Die zweite Studie repräsentiert die „reale“ räumliche Abhängigkeit durch ein copula-basiertes Abhängigkeitsmodell. In ähnlicher Weise werden die drei verschiedenen Annahmen zur räumlichen Abhängigkeit der Wiederkehrintervalle von Hochwasser auf nationaler und kontinentaler Ebene verglichen. Außerdem wird der Einfluss von „Tail-dependences“ im Modell sowie von Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen auf die räumliche Abhängigkeit untersucht.
	Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit unter Anwendung des Sensitivitätsanalyse-Frameworks zeigen, dass das Hochwasserrisiko aufgrund möglicher Änderungsszenarien dramatisch variieren kann. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels kann durch Änderungen anderer Risikokomponenten (z. B. Änderungen der Deichsysteme und der Vulnerabilität) überdeckt werden. Die Untersuchung zur räumlichen Abhängigkeit zeigen, dass der Schaden unter der Annahme vollständiger Abhängigkeit für Ereignisse mit Wiederkehrintervalle von mehr als ungefähr 200 Jahren im Elbeeinzugsgebiet 100 % größer als der Schaden unter modellierter Abhängigkeit. Die Annahme vollständiger Abhängigkeit überschätzt den 200-jährigen Hochwasserschaden, einen Referenzindikator für die Versicherungsbranche, um 139 %, 188 % und 246 % für Vereinigte Königreich, Deutschland und Europa. Die Fehleinschätzung des Hochwasserrisikos kann unter verschiedenen Annahmen von Abhängigkeit zwischen Oberlauf und Unterlauf eines Einzugsgebietes stark variieren. Zudem können „Tail-dependences“ im Modell sowie der Hochwasserschutz im Einzugsgebiet die Ergebnisse der Risikoabschätzung, unter verschiedenen Annahmen der räumlichen Abhängigkeit, beeinflussen.
	Abschließend wird eine umfangreiche Berücksichtigung der Risikokomponenten und insbesondere der räumlichen Abhängigkeit von Wiederkehrintervallen stark empfohlen, um das Hochwasserrisiko und damit dessen Management und Minderung besser verstehen zu können.
T2  - Die Rolle von Risikokomponenten und räumlicher Abhängigkeit bei Hochwasserrisikoabschätzungen
KW  - flood risk
KW  - sensitivity analysis
KW  - hazard
KW  - river flooding
KW  - vulnerability
KW  - spatial dependence
KW  - damage estimation
KW  - continuous simulation
KW  - flood risk assessment
KW  - kontinuierliche Simulation
KW  - Schadensabschätzung
KW  - Hochwasserrisiko
KW  - Hochwasserrisikobewertung
KW  - Gefahr
KW  - Flusshochwasser
KW  - Sensitivitätsanalyse
KW  - räumliche Abhängigkeit
KW  - Vulnerabilität
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-492554
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Müller, Sebastian
A1  - Zech, Alraune
A1  - Hesse, Falk
T1  - ogs5py: APython-APIfor theOpenGeoSys5 Scientific Modeling Package
JF  - Groundwater : journal of the Association of Ground-Water Scientists and Engineers, a division of the National Ground Water Association
N2  - High-performance numerical codes are an indispensable tool for hydrogeologists when modeling subsurface flow and transport systems. But as they are written in compiled languages, like C/C++ or Fortran, established software packages are rarely user-friendly, limiting a wider adoption of such tools. OpenGeoSys (OGS), an open-source, finite-element solver for thermo-hydro-mechanical-chemical processes in porous and fractured media, is no exception. Graphical user interfaces may increase usability, but do so at a dramatic reduction of flexibility and are difficult or impossible to integrate into a larger workflow. Python offers an optimal trade-off between these goals by providing a highly flexible, yet comparatively user-friendly environment for software applications. Hence, we introduceogs5py, a Python-API for the OpenGeoSys 5 scientific modeling package. It provides a fully Python-based representation of an OGS project, a large array of convenience functions for users to interact with OGS and connects OGS to the scientific and computational environment of Python.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/gwat.13017
SN  - 0017-467X
SN  - 1745-6584
VL  - 59
IS  - 1
SP  - 117
EP  - 122
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Münch, Steffen
T1  - The relevance of the aeolian transport path for the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria on arable fields
T1  - Die Bedeutung des äolischen Transportpfads für die Ausbreitung antibiotikaresistenter Bakterien von Ackerböden
N2  - The spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria poses a globally increasing threat to public health care. The excessive use of antibiotics in animal husbandry can develop resistances in the stables. Transmission through direct contact with animals and contamination of food has already been proven. The excrements of the animals combined with a binding material enable a further potential path of spread into the environment, if they are used as organic manure in agricultural landscapes. As most of the airborne bacteria are attached to particulate matter, the focus of the work will be the atmospheric dispersal via the dust fraction. 
Field measurements on arable lands in Brandenburg, Germany and wind erosion studies in a wind tunnel were conducted to investigate the risk of a potential atmospheric dust-associated spread of antibiotic-resistant bacteria from poultry manure fertilized agricultural soils. The focus was to (i) characterize the conditions for aerosolization and (ii) qualify and quantify dust emissions during agricultural operations and wind erosion.
PM10 (PM, particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter smaller than 10 µm) emission factors and bacterial fluxes for poultry manure application and incorporation have not been previously reported before. The contribution to dust emissions depends on the water content of the manure, which is affected by the manure pretreatment (fresh, composted, stored, dried), as well as by the intensity of manure spreading from the manure spreader. During poultry manure application, PM10 emission ranged between 0.05 kg ha-1 and 8.37 kg ha-1. For comparison, the subsequent land preparation contributes to 0.35 – 1.15 kg ha-1 of PM10 emissions. Manure particles were still part of dust emissions but they were accounted to be less than 1% of total PM10 emissions due to the dilution of poultry manure in the soil after manure incorporation. Bacterial emissions of fecal origin were more relevant during manure application than during the subsequent manure incorporation, although PM10 emissions of manure incorporation were larger than PM10 emissions of manure application for the non-dried manure variants.
Wind erosion leads to preferred detachment of manure particles from sandy soils, when poultry manure has been recently incorporated. Sorting effects were determined between the low-density organic particles of manure origin and the soil particles of mineral origin close above the threshold of 7 m s-1. In dependence to the wind speed, potential erosion rates between 101 and 854 kg ha-1 were identified, if 6 t ha-1 of poultry manure were applied. Microbial investigation showed that manure bacteria got detached more easily from the soil surface during wind erosion, due to their attachment on manure particles.
Although antibiotic-resistant bacteria (ESBL-producing E. coli) were still found in the poultry barns, no further contamination could be detected with them in the manure, fertilized soils or in the dust generated by manure application, land preparation or wind erosion. Parallel studies of this project showed that storage of poultry manure for a few days (36 – 72 h) is sufficient to inactivate ESBL-producing E. coli. Further antibiotic-resistant bacteria, i.e. MRSA and VRE, were only found sporadically in the stables and not at all in the dust. Therefore, based on the results of this work, the risk of a potential infection by dust-associated antibiotic-resistant bacteria can be considered as low.
N2  - Die Ausbreitung antibiotikaresistenter Bakterien stellt eine global zunehmende Gefahr für die öffentliche Gesundheitsfürsorge dar. Über den unsachgemäßen Einsatz von Antibiotika in der Tierhaltung können sich in den Ställen Resistenzen entwickeln. Übertragungen über den direkten Kontakt mit Tieren und der Kontaminierung von Lebensmitteln wurden bisher schon nachgewiesen. Die Exkremente der Tiere in Verbindung mit einem Bindemedium ermöglichen einen weiteren potentiellen Ausbreitungspfad in die Umwelt, wenn sie als organische Wirtschaftsdünger in Agrarlandschaften verwendet werden. 
Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden Feld- und Windkanalmessungen durchgeführt, um dem von den Ackerflächen ausgehenden potentiellen Risiko einer partikulären Ausbreitung antibiotikaresistenter Bakterien nachzugehen. Kern der Arbeit ist zum einen die Bedingungen zu charakterisieren, die zu Staubemissionen während der Prozesskette (Düngerausbringung mit Geflügelmist, nachfolgende Feldbearbeitungen, Winderosion) führen, zum anderen Staubemissionen dieser Prozesskette zu klassifizieren und quantifizieren. 
Flächenbezogene Emissionen für PM10 als ein Teil des Schwebstaubs (sogenannte PM10 Emissionsfaktoren) wurden zum ersten Mal für die Düngerausbringung mit Geflügelmist bestimmt. Sie lagen zwischen 0,05 und 8,37 kg ha-1 PM10 und waren abhängig vom Wassergehalt des Materials, der durch die Vorbehandlungen (frisch, kompostiert, gelagert, getrocknet) der Düngervarianten bestimmt war. Im Vergleich dazu wurden für die nachfolgenden Bodenbearbeitungen zwischen 0,35 kg ha-1 und 1,15 kg ha-1 PM10 freigesetzt. Zwar waren Mistpartikel weiterhin Bestanteil der Staubemissionen während der Bodenbearbeitung, jedoch sank ihr Anteil durch die Verdünnung des Düngers im Boden nach der Düngereinarbeitung auf unter 1 % ab. Ähnliche Tendenzen ergaben sich bei der mikrobiellen Betrachtung der freigesetzten Bakterien während der Ausbringung und Einarbeitung des Geflügelmists. Trotz eines höheren PM10 Austrags während der Düngereinarbeitung, verglichen mit der Ausbringung des Düngers, waren die Bakterienemissionen während der Düngerausbringung relevanter als bei der Düngereinarbeitung.
Winderosion sorgt für eine bevorzugte Verfrachtung des Geflügelmists auf sandigen Böden, nachdem der Dünger frisch eingearbeitet wurde. Da vor allem organische Bestandteile im Boden durch ihre geringe Dichte von der Auswehung betroffen sind, führt Winderosion auch bei mit Geflügelmist gedüngten Böden bereits kurz nach Erreichen der Schwellenwindgeschwindigkeit von 7 m s-1 zu einer Entmischung der eingebrachten organischen Mistpartikel und der mineralischen Bestandteile des Bodens. Diese Effekte treten vor allem dann auf, wenn in trockenen Böden der Gefügezustand zwischen mineralischen und organischen Partikeln kaum oder nicht vorhanden ist. In Abhängigkeit der Windgeschwindigkeit konnten potentielle Austräge zwischen 101 und 854 kg ha-1 bei einer eingebrachten Düngermenge von 6 t ha-1 bestimmt werden. Der bevorzugte Austrag von Mistpartikeln bedingt auch einen bevorzugten Austrag von Bakterien fäkalen Ursprungs, da diese nach der Einarbeitung an den Mistpartikeln mit geringerer Dichte anhaften. 
Obwohl in den Geflügelställen antibiotikaresistente Bakterien in Form von ESBL bildenden Escherichia Coli (E. coli) in hohen Keimzahlen gefunden wurden, konnten keine weiteren Kontaminationen mit resistenten E.coli im Mist, in gedüngten Böden oder im Staub nachgewiesen werden. Parallelstudien aus dem Projekt zeigten, dass eine mehrtägige Lagerung von Hühnerstreu ausreichend ist (36 – 72 h), die Mehrzahl resistenter E.coli zu reduzieren, sodass sie sich nach der Düngerausbringung nicht mehr über Agrarflächen ausbreiten konnten. Weitere antibiotikaresistente Bakterien (MRSA, VRE) wurden nur vereinzelt in den Ställen und überhaupt nicht im Staub nachgewiesen. Aus unseren Versuchen kann daher das Risiko einer möglichen Infektion durch staubassoziierte antibiotikaresistente Bakterien als gering eingeschätzt werden.
KW  - wind erosion
KW  - dust emission
KW  - PM10
KW  - manure application
KW  - tillage
KW  - sandy soils
KW  - poultry manure
KW  - antibiotic resistance
KW  - airborne bacteria
KW  - agricultural
KW  - fecal contamination
KW  - fertilization
KW  - PM10
KW  - landwirtschaftlich
KW  - luftgetragene Bakterien
KW  - Antibiotikaresistenz
KW  - Staubemission
KW  - fäkale Kontamination
KW  - Düngung
KW  - Mistausbringung
KW  - Geflügelmist
KW  - sandige Böden
KW  - Bodenbearbeitung
KW  - Winderosion
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-536089
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Natho, Stephanie
T1  - How Flood Hazard Maps Improve the Understanding of Ecologically Active Floodplains
JF  - Water / Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)
N2  - Floodplains are threatened ecosystems and are not only ecologically meaningful but also important for humans by creating multiple benefits. Many underlying functions, like nutrient retention, carbon sequestration or water regulation, strongly depend on regular inundation. So far, these are approached on the basis of what are called ‘active floodplains’. Active floodplains, defined as statistically inundated once every 100 years, represent less than 10% of a floodplain’s original size. Still, should this remaining area be considered as one homogenous surface in terms of floodplain function, or are there any alternative approaches to quantify ecologically active floodplains? With the European Flood Hazard Maps, the extent of not only medium floods (T-medium) but also frequent floods (T-frequent) needs to be modelled by all member states of the European Union. For large German rivers, both scenarios were compared to quantify the extent, as well as selected indicators for naturalness derived from inundation. It is assumed that the more naturalness there is, the more inundation and the better the functioning. Real inundation was quantified using measured discharges from relevant gauges over the past 20 years. As a result, land uses indicating strong human impacts changed significantly from T-frequent to T-medium floodplains. Furthermore, the extent, water depth and water volume stored in the T-frequent and T-medium floodplains is significantly different. Even T-frequent floodplains experienced inundation for only half of the considered gauges during the past 20 years. This study gives evidence for considering regulation functions on the basis of ecologically active floodplains, meaning in floodplains with more frequent inundation that T-medium floodplains delineate.
KW  - active floodplain
KW  - frequent flood
KW  - flood hazard map
KW  - inundation
KW  - land use
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w13070937
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 13
IS  - 7
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Natho, Stephanie
T1  - How Flood Hazard Maps Improve the Understanding of Ecologically Active Floodplains
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - Floodplains are threatened ecosystems and are not only ecologically meaningful but also important for humans by creating multiple benefits. Many underlying functions, like nutrient retention, carbon sequestration or water regulation, strongly depend on regular inundation. So far, these are approached on the basis of what are called ‘active floodplains’. Active floodplains, defined as statistically inundated once every 100 years, represent less than 10% of a floodplain’s original size. Still, should this remaining area be considered as one homogenous surface in terms of floodplain function, or are there any alternative approaches to quantify ecologically active floodplains? With the European Flood Hazard Maps, the extent of not only medium floods (T-medium) but also frequent floods (T-frequent) needs to be modelled by all member states of the European Union. For large German rivers, both scenarios were compared to quantify the extent, as well as selected indicators for naturalness derived from inundation. It is assumed that the more naturalness there is, the more inundation and the better the functioning. Real inundation was quantified using measured discharges from relevant gauges over the past 20 years. As a result, land uses indicating strong human impacts changed significantly from T-frequent to T-medium floodplains. Furthermore, the extent, water depth and water volume stored in the T-frequent and T-medium floodplains is significantly different. Even T-frequent floodplains experienced inundation for only half of the considered gauges during the past 20 years. This study gives evidence for considering regulation functions on the basis of ecologically active floodplains, meaning in floodplains with more frequent inundation that T-medium floodplains delineate.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1147 
KW  - active floodplain
KW  - frequent flood
KW  - flood hazard map
KW  - inundation
KW  - land use
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517613
SN  - 1866-8372
IS  - 1147
ER  - 
TY  - THES
A1  - Nguyen, Van Khanh Triet
T1  - Flood dynamics in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta
T1  - Hochwasserdynamik im vietnamesischen Mekong-Delta
BT  - Current state and future projections
BT  - Aktueller Stand und künftige Prognosen
N2  - Today, the Mekong Delta in the southern of Vietnam is home for 18 million people. The delta also accounts for more than half of the country’s food production and 80% of the exported rice. Due to the low elevation, it is highly susceptible to the risk of fluvial and coastal flooding. Although extreme floods often result in excessive damages and economic losses, the annual flood pulse from the Mekong is vital to sustain agricultural cultivation and livelihoods of million delta inhabitants.
Delta-wise risk management and adaptation strategies are required to mitigate the adverse impacts from extreme events while capitalising benefits from floods. However, a proper flood risk management has not been implemented in the VMD, because the quantification of flood damage is often overlooked and the risks are thus not quantified. So far, flood management has been exclusively focused on engineering measures, i.e. high- and low- dyke systems, aiming at flood-free or partial inundation control without any consideration of the actual risks or a cost-benefit analysis. Therefore, an analysis of future delta flood dynamics driven these stressors is valuable to facilitate the transition from sole hazard control towards a risk management approach, which is more cost-effective and also robust against future changes in risk.
Built on these research gaps, this thesis investigates the current state and future projections of flood hazard, damage and risk to rice cultivation, the most important economic activity in the VMD. The study quantifies the changes in risk and hazard brought by the development of delta-based flood control measures in the last decades, and analyses the expected changes in risk driven by the changing climate, rising sea-level and deltaic land subsidence, and finally the development of hydropower projects in the Mekong Basin. For this purpose, flood trend analyses and comprehensive hydraulic modelling were performed, together with the development of a concept to quantify flood damage and risk to rice plantation.
The analysis of observed flood levels revealed strong and robust increasing trends of peak and duration downstream of the high-dyke areas with a step change in 2000/2001, i.e. after the disastrous flood which initiated the high-dyke development. These changes were in contrast to the negative trends detected upstream, suggested that high-dyke development has shifted flood hazard downstream. Findings of the trend’s analysis were later confirmed by hydraulic simulations of the two recent extreme floods in 2000 and 2011, where the hydrological boundaries and dyke system settings were interchanged.
However, the high-dyke system was not the only and often not the main cause for a shift of flood hazard, as a comparative analysis of these two extreme floods proved. The high-dyke development was responsible for 20–90% of the observed changes in flood level between 2000 and 2011, with large spatial variances. The particular flood hydrograph of the two events had the highest contribution in the northern part of the delta, while the tidal level had 2–3 times higher influence than the high-dyke in the lower-central and coastal areas downstream of high-dyke areas. The impact of the high-dyke development was highest in the areas closely downstream of the high-dyke area just south of the Cambodia-Vietnam border. The hydraulic simulations also validated that the concurrence of the flood peak with spring tides, i.e. high sea level along the coast, amplified the flood level and inundation in the central and coastal regions substantially.
The risk assessment quantified the economic losses of rice cultivation to USD 25.0 and 115 million (0.02–0.1% of the total GDP of Vietnam in 2011) corresponding to the 10-year and the 100-year floods, with an expected annual damage of about USD 4.5 million. A particular finding is that the flood damage was highly sensitive to flood timing. Here, a 10-year event with an early peak, i.e. late August-September, could cause as much damage as a 100-year event that peaked in October. This finding underlines the importance of a reliable early flood warning, which could substantially reduce the damage to rice crops and thus the risk. 
The developed risk assessment concept was furthermore applied to investigate two high-dyke development alternatives, which are currently under discussion among the administrative bodies in Vietnam, but also in the public. The first option favouring the utilization of the current high-dyke compartments as flood retention areas instead for rice cropping during the flood season could reduce flood hazard and expected losses by 5–40%, depending on the region of the delta. On the contrary, the second option promoting the further extension of the areas protected by high-dyke to facilitate third rice crop planting on a larger area, tripled the current expected annual flood damage. This finding challenges the expected economic benefit of triple rice cultivation, in addition to the already known reducing of nutrient supply by floodplain sedimentation and thus higher costs for fertilizers. 
The economic benefits of the high-dyke and triple rice cropping system is further challenged by the changes in the flood dynamics to be expected in future. For the middle of the 21st century (2036-2065) the effective sea-level rise an increase of the inundation extent by 20–27% was projected. This corresponds to an increase of flood damage to rice crops in dry, normal and wet year by USD 26.0, 40.0 and 82.0 million in dry, normal and wet year compared to the baseline period 1971-2000.
Hydraulic simulations indicated that the planned massive development of hydropower dams in the Mekong Basin could potentially compensate the increase in flood hazard and agriculture losses stemming from climate change. However, the benefits of dams as mitigation of flood losses are highly uncertain, because a) the actual development of the dams is highly disputed, b) the operation of the dams is primarily targeted at power generation, not flood control, and c) this would require international agreements and cooperation, which is difficult to achieve in South-East Asia. The theoretical flood mitigation benefit is additionally challenged by a number of negative impacts of the dam development, e.g. disruption of floodplain inundation in normal, non-extreme flood years. Adding to the certain reduction of sediment and nutrient load to the floodplains, hydropower dams will drastically impair rice and agriculture production, the basis livelihoods of million delta inhabitants.
In conclusion, the VMD is expected to face increasing threats of tidal induced floods in the coming decades. Protection of the entire delta coastline solely with “hard” engineering flood protection structures is neither technically nor economically feasible, adaptation and mitigation actions are urgently required. Better control and reduction of groundwater abstraction is thus strongly recommended as an immediate and high priority action to reduce the land subsidence and thus tidal flooding and salinity intrusion in the delta. Hydropower development in the Mekong basin might offer some theoretical flood protection for the Mekong delta, but due to uncertainties in the operation of the dams and a number of negative effects, the dam development cannot be recommended as a strategy for flood management. For the Vietnamese authorities, it is advisable to properly maintain the existing flood protection structures and to develop flexible risk-based flood management plans. In this context the study showed that the high-dyke compartments can be utilized for emergency flood management in extreme events. For this purpose, a reliable flood forecast is essential, and the action plan should be materialised in official documents and legislation to assure commitment and consistency in the implementation and operation.
N2  - Das Mekong-Delta im Süden Vietnams ist die Heimat von 18 Millionen Menschen. Im Delta werden mehr als die Hälfte der Nahrungsmittel des Landes und 80 % des exportierten Reises produziert. Aufgrund der geringen Höhen und Topographie ist das Delta sehr anfällig für Überflutungen, sowohl durch Fußhochwasser als auch durch gezeitenbedingte Rückstauüberflutungen. Obwohl extreme Überschwemmungen oft zu hohen Schäden und wirtschaftlichen Verlusten führen, ist der jährliche Hochwasserimpuls des Mekong lebenswichtig für die Aufrechterhaltung des landwirtschaftlichen Anbaus und des Lebensunterhalts von Millionen Deltabewohnern.
Ein deltaweites Risikomanagement bestehend aus Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen und  Anpassungsstrategien ist erforderlich, um die negativen Auswirkungen von Extremereignissen zu mindern, zeitgleich aber auch die positiven Aspekte der Hochwasser beizubehalten. Ein Hochwasserrisikomanagement ist im VMD jedoch nicht implementiert, da die Quantifizierung von Hochwasserschäden typischerweise nicht vorgenommen wird. Bisher konzentriert sich das Hochwassermanagement ausschließlich auf ingenieurtechnische Maßnahmen zur Eindämmung der Gefährdung. Dies geschieht entweder durch Hoch- oder Niederdeichung, die auf eine hochwasserfreie oder teilweise Überflutungssteuerung abzielen. Eine risikobasierte Bewertung der Vor- und Nachteile zwischen Hoch- und Niederdeichansatz sowie Kosten-Nutzen-Rechnungen fehlen allerdings ebenfalls. Zudem ist zu erwarten, dass sich die Überschwemmungen Dynamik und das Hochwasserrisiko im Mekong Delta als Folge des Klimawandels und menschlicher Eingriffe in das Delta und das Mekong-Einzugsgebiet verändern werden. Die Analyse der zukünftigen Hochwasserdynamik in Abhängigkeit von diesen Stressoren ist notwendig, um den Übergang von einer alleinigen Gefahrenabwehr zu einem zukunftssicheren, probabilistischen Risikomanagement zu erleichtern.
Ausgehend von diesen Forschungslücken untersucht diese Arbeit den aktuelle Hochwassergefährdung und die zu erwartenden zukünftigen Änderungen, sowie der damit einhergehenden Schäden und Risiken für den Reisanbau im Mekong Delta unter Berücksichtigung existierender und möglicher Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen, des sich ändernden Klimas, des steigenden Meeresspiegels in Kombination mit der Landabsenkung des Deltas und der geplanten Staudämme im Mekong Einzugsgebiet.
Eine Analyse der jährlichen Hochwasserpegel zeigte starke und robuste steigende Trends in den maximalen Wasserständen der Hochwasser und der Hochwasserdauer flussabwärts der Hochdeichgebiete, wobei eine sprunghafte Veränderung in den Jahren 2000/2001 nach. dem katastrophalen Hochwasser, das die Hochdeichentwicklung einleitete, festgestellt wurde. Diese Veränderungen stehen im Gegensatz zu den negativen Trends, oberstrom der Hocdeichgebiete, was darauf schließen lässt, dass die Hochdeichentwicklung die Hochwassergefahr flussabwärts verlagert hat. Die Ergebnisse der Trendanalyse wurden weiterhin durch hydraulische Simulationen der Überflutungsdynamiken der Hochwasser von 2000 und 2011 bestätigt. Allerdings waren die Hochdeiche nicht die Haupt- und einzige Ursache für den höheren Hochwasserpegel im Jahr 2011 im Vergleich zum Hochwasser im Jahr 2000. Die Hochwasserganglinie des Mekongs hatte den höchsten Beitrag im nördlichen Teil des Deltas oberstrom der Hochdeichgebiete, während der Tidenhub in den zentralen und küstennahen Gebieten stromabwärts des Hochdeichs einen 2-3 mal höheren Einfluss hatte als die Hochdeiche. 
Die wirtschaftlichen Verluste des Reisanbaus wurden rezent auf 25,0-115 Mio. USD geschätzt, für jeweils das 10- und 100-jährliche Hochwasser. Die Schäden sind hierbei sehr sensitiv gegenüber der Hochwasserganglinie, insbesondere dem Zeitpunkt des Auftretens des Hochwasserscheitels. Ein frühes 10-jährliches Hochwasser kann aufgrund des Zusammentreffens des Hochwassers mit der Ernte der Frühjahrsaussaat oder der Aussaat der Sommerfrucht ähnliche Verluste verursachen wie ein 100-jährliches Ereignis, das im Oktober seinen Höhepunkt erreicht. Neben dem Anbau einer dritten Frucht im Jahr könnten die existierenden Hochdeichabschnitte als Hochwasserrückhalteräume genutzt werden und so die Hochwassergefahr und die zu erwartenden Schäden um 5-40% reduzieren. Umgekehrt würde ein weiterer Ausbau der Hochdeiche die derzeit erwarteten jährlichen Hochwasserschäden verdreifachen.
Die Zukunftsprojektionen des Hochwasserrisikos ergaben, dass das Mekong Delta in den nächsten Jahrzehnten zunehmend von tidebedingten Überschwemmungen bedroht sein wird. Der Anstieg des Meeresspiegels in Kombination mit der Landabsenkung erhöht das Ausmaß der Überflutung des Deltas um 20% und den Schaden an der Reisernte um 40-85 Mio. USD. Technische Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen können diesen Anstieg des Risikos nicht verhindern, da der Schutz des gesamten Deltas allein durch harte Hochwasserschutzbauten technisch und wirtschaftlich nicht realisierbar ist. Daher sind Maßnahmen zur Schadensminderung und zur Anpassung an das veränderte Risiko dringend erforderlich. Als erster und wichtiger Schritt wird hier eine bessere Kontrolle und Reduzierung der Grundwasserentnahme im Delta dringend empfohlen, um die Landabsenkung und dadurch die tidenbedingten Überflutungen sowie die Salzwasserintrusion zu verringern.
Der Klimawandel und die daraus resultierenden Veränderungen im Hochwasserregime des Mekong verursachen eine weitere, aber geringere Erhöhung des Hochwasserrisikos. Die geplanten Staudämme im Mekong Einzugsgebiet könnten die Zunahme der Hochwassergefahr und der landwirtschaftlichen Verluste aufgrund des Klimawandels in extremen Hochwasserjahren zumindest theoretisch abmildern. Der Nutzen von Dämmen zur Minderung des Hochwasserrisikos ist jedoch ungewiss, da die Realisierung der geplanten Dämme sehr umstritten und damit unsicher ist. Weiterhin spielt das Management der Staudämme eine wichtige Rolle für die Hochwasserregulierung. Da die Dämme in erste Linie zur Stromerzeugung gebaut werden, ist der Hochwasserschutz der unterliegenden Anrainerstaaten eher von untergeordneter Bedeutung. Für Vietnam bedeutet das, dass eine ordnungsgemäße Instandhaltung von Deichen und Hochwasserschutzbauten eine hohe Priorität haben sollte, um Abhängigkeiten von den Nachbarstaaten zu vermeiden. Weiterhin ist die Entwicklung von „weichen“ Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen und -plänen dringend notwendig, da ein alleiniger Schutz durch technische Maßnahmen unmöglich ist. Aufgrund der in dieser Arbeit erzielten Ergebnisse wird daher empfohlen, die Hochdeichkompartimente für das Notfall-Hochwassermanagement bei Extremereignissen zu nutzen. Zu diesem Zweck ist eine verlässliche Hochwasservorhersage unerlässlich, und der Aktionsplan sollte in offiziellen Dokumenten und Gesetzen festgehalten werden, um die Verbindlichkeit und konsequente Umsetzung sicherzustellen.
KW  - Mekong Delta
KW  - flood hazard
KW  - flood risk
KW  - climate change
KW  - Mekong Delta
KW  - Klimawandel
KW  - Hochwassergefahr
KW  - Hochwasserrisiko
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-512830
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Otto, Antje
A1  - Göpfert, Christian
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Are cities prepared for climate change?
BT  - an analysis of adaptation readiness in 104 German cities
JF  - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change
N2  - Cities can be severely affected by climate change. Hence, many of them have started to develop climate adaptation strategies or implement measures to help prepare for the challenges it will present. This study aims to provide an overview of climate adaptation in 104 German cities. While existing studies on adaptation tracking rely heavily on self-reported data or the mere existence of adaptation plans, we applied the broader concept of adaptation readiness, considering five factors and a total of twelve different indicators, when making our assessments. We clustered the cities depending on the contribution of these factors to the overall adaptation readiness index and grouped them according to their total score and cluster affiliations. This resulted in us identifying four groups of cities. First, a pioneering group comprises twelve (mainly big) cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, which showed high scores for all five factors of adaptation readiness. Second, a set of 36 active cities, which follow different strategies on how to deal with climate adaptation. Third, a group of 28 cities showed considerably less activity toward climate adaptation, while a fourth set of 28 mostly small cities (with between 50,000 and 99,999 inhabitants) scored the lowest. We consider this final group to be pursuing a 'wait-and-see' approach. Since the city size correlates with the adaptation readiness index, we recommend policymakers introduce funding schemes that focus on supporting small cities, to help them prepare for the impact of a changing climate.
KW  - Adaptation tracking
KW  - Adaptation plans
KW  - Cluster analysis
KW  - City ranking
KW  - Urban climate policy
KW  - Germany
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09971-4
SN  - 1381-2386
SN  - 1573-1596
VL  - 26
IS  - 8
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Otto, Antje
A1  - Kern, Kristine
A1  - Haupt, Wolfgang
A1  - Eckersley, Peter
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Ranking local climate policy
BT  - assessing the mitigation and adaptation activities of 104 German cities
JF  - Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change
N2  - Climate mitigation and climate adaptation are crucial tasks for urban areas and can involve synergies as well as trade-offs. However, few studies have examined how mitigation and adaptation efforts relate to each other in a large number of differently sized cities, and therefore we know little about whether forerunners in mitigation are also leading in adaptation or if cities tend to focus on just one policy field. This article develops an internationally applicable approach to rank cities on climate policy that incorporates multiple indicators related to (1) local commitments on mitigation and adaptation, (2) urban mitigation and adaptation plans and (3) climate adaptation and mitigation ambitions. We apply this method to rank 104 differently sized German cities and identify six clusters: climate policy leaders, climate adaptation leaders, climate mitigation leaders, climate policy followers, climate policy latecomers and climate policy laggards. The article seeks explanations for particular cities' positions and shows that coping with climate change in a balanced way on a high level depends on structural factors, in particular city size, the pathways of local climate policies since the 1990s and funding programmes for both climate mitigation and adaptation.
N2  - Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung sind zentrale Aufgaben für Städte und können sowohl Synergien bilden als auch in Konflikt zueinander stehen. Allerdings haben weltweit nur wenige Studien bislang untersucht, wie Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung in einer großen Anzahl an Städten unterschiedlicher Größe zueinander stehen; für Deutschland wurde dies bisher noch gar nicht unterssucht. Daher ist bisher wenig darüber bekannt, ob Vorreiterstädte im Klimaschutz auch das Feld in der Klimaanpassung anführen oder ob sich Städte eher nur auf eines der beiden Politikthemen fokussieren. Dieser Artikel entwickelt daher einen international anwendbaren Ansatz, um Städte hinsichtlich ihrer Klimapolitik zu bewerten. In diesem Ansatz werden mehrere Indikatoren zusammengeführt, die sich hinsichtlich Klimaschutz und -anpassung auf (1) den lokalen Willen und das Engagement, (2) die veröffentlichten Konzepte und (3) die verfolgten Ambitionen beziehen. Diesen Ansatz wenden wir an, um 104 unterschiedlich große deutsche Städte zu bewerten und identifizieren darauf aufbauend sechs Cluster: Vorreiter in der Klimapolitik, Vorreiter in der Klimaanpassung, Vorreiter im Klimaschutz, Aufsteiger in der Klimapolitik, Nachahmer in der Klimapolitik und Nachzügler in der Klimapolitik. Der Artikel diskutiert Erklärungsansätze für einzelne Städtepositionen und arbeitet heraus, dass eine ausgewogene Klimapolitik auf hohem Niveau von strukturellen Faktoren abhängt. Insbesondere die Stadtgröße, Pfade der lokalen Klimapolitik seit den 1990ern und Förderprogramme für Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung spielen hierbei eine Rolle.
KW  - Climate mitigation
KW  - Climate adaptation
KW  - Climate policy integration
KW  - Urban planning
KW  - City ranking
KW  - Germany
KW  - Deutschland
KW  - Klimaanpassung
KW  - Klimapolitische Integration
KW  - Klimaschutz
KW  - Stadtplanung
KW  - Stadtranking
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03142-9
SN  - 0165-0009
SN  - 1573-1480
VL  - 167
IS  - 1-2
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Parra Hormazábal, Eric
A1  - Mohr, Christian Heinrich
A1  - Korup, Oliver
T1  - Predicting Patagonian landslides
BT  - roles of forest cover and wind speed
JF  - Geophysical research letters : GRL / American Geophysical Union
N2  - Dense tree stands and high wind speeds characterize the temperate rainforests of southern Chilean Patagonia, where landslides frequently strip hillslopes of soils, rock, and biomass. Assuming that wind loads on trees promote slope instability, we explore the role of forest cover and wind speed in predicting landslides with a hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression. We find that higher crown openness and wind speeds credibly predict higher probabilities of detecting landslides regardless of topographic location, though much better in low-order channels and on midslope locations than on open slopes. Wind speed has less predictive power in areas that were impacted by tephra fall from recent volcanic eruptions, while the influence of forest cover in terms of crown openness remains. <br /> Plain Language Summary Chilean Patagonia hosts some of Earth's largest swaths of temperate rainforests, where frequent landslides erode soil, rock, and vegetation. We explore the role of forest cover and wind disturbances in promoting such landslides with a model that predicts from crown openness and wind speed the probability of detecting landslide terrain. We find that both forest cover and wind speed play important, yet previously underappreciated, roles in this context, especially when grouped by landform types and previous volcanic disturbance, which may override the comparable modest control of wind on landslides. Our study is the first of its kind in one of the windiest spots on Earth and encourages a more discerning approach to landslide prediction.
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095224
SN  - 0094-8276
SN  - 1944-8007
VL  - 48
IS  - 23
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Paton, Eva
A1  - Vogel, Johannes Joscha
A1  - Kluge, Björn
A1  - Nehls, Thomas
T1  - Ausmaß, Trend und Extrema von Dürren im urbanen Raum
T1  - Extent, trend and extremes of droughts in urban areas
JF  - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung
N2  - Summers are currently perceived to be getting longer, hotter and more extreme - and this impression is reinforced in urban areas by the occurrence of heat island effects in densely built-up areas. To assess the real extent of increasing drought occurrences in German cities, a DWD data set of 31 urban climate stations for the period 1950 to 2019 was analysed using the standardised precipitation index (SPI) with regard to meteorological drought lengths, drought extrema, heat waves and compound events in the form of simultaneously occurring heat waves and drought months. The analysis shows a large degree of heterogeneity within Germany: a severe drought occurred in most cities in 2018, while the year 2018 was among the three years with the longest droughts (since 1950) for only one third of the cities. Some southern and central German cities show a statistically significant increase in drought months per decade since 1950, other cities, mostly in the north and northwest, only show an increase in the past two decades or even no trend at all. The compound analysis of simultaneously occurring heat and drought months shows a strong increase at most stations in the last two decades, whereby the two components are responsible with a very different proportion regionally for the increase in compound events.
N2  - In der derzeitigen Wahrnehmung werden die Sommer dürrer, heißer und extremer – dieser Eindruck verstärkt sich im urbanen Raum durch das Auftreten von Hitzeinseleffekten in dicht bebauten Gebieten. Um das wirkliche Ausmaß der Dürre bewerten zu können, wurden Zeitreihendaten von 31 urbanen Klimastationen (DWD) für den Zeitraum 1950 bis 2019 mittels des standardisierten Niederschlagsindex (SPI) bezüglich Dürrelängen, Dürreextrema, Hitzewellen und gleichzeitig auftretenden Hitze- und Dürremonaten ausgewertet.
Die Analyse zeigt eine große Heterogenität innerhalb von Deutschland: In den meisten Städten trat 2018 eine lange Dürre von einer durchschnittlichen Dauer von 6 Monaten auf, gleichzeitig gehörte das Jahr 2018 nur bei einem Drittel der Städte zu den drei Jahren mit den längsten Dürren seit 1950. Bei den meisten betrachteten Stationen traten die längsten Dürren in den Jahren 1953, 1971 und 1976 auf. Bei einigen südlichen und mitteldeutschen Städten kann man eine statistisch signifikante Zunahme der Anzahl der Dürremonate pro Dekade seit 1950 verzeichnen. Andere Städte, eher im Norden und Nordwesten gelegen, zeigen nur in den letzten zwei Dekaden eine Zunahme oder gar keinen Trend. Die Compoundanalyse von gleichzeitig auftretenden Hitze- und Dürremonaten zeigt bei den meisten Stationen eine starke Zunahme innerhalb der letzten zwei Dekaden, wobei die beiden Komponenten regional mit einem sehr unterschiedlichen Anteil zur Zunahme der Compoundereignisse beitragen.
KW  - meteorological droughts
KW  - heat waves
KW  - compound events
KW  - standardised
KW  - precipitation index (SPI)
KW  - urban hydrology
KW  - meteorologische Dürren
KW  - Hitzewellen
KW  - Compoundereignisse
KW  - standardisierter Niederschlagsindex (SPI
KW  - urbane Hydrologie
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2021.1_1
SN  - 1439-1783
SN  - 2749-859X
VL  - 65
IS  - 1
SP  - 5
EP  - 16
PB  - Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde
CY  - Koblenz
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Puppe, Daniel
A1  - Kaczorek, Danuta
A1  - Schaller, Jörg
A1  - Barkusky, Dietmar
A1  - Sommer, Michael
T1  - Crop straw recycling prevents anthropogenic desilication of agricultural soil-plant systems in the temperate zone
BT  - results from a long-term field experiment in NE Germany
JF  - Geoderma : an international journal of soil science
N2  - Due to the fact that silicon (Si) increases the resistance of plants against diverse abiotic and biotic stresses, Si nowadays is categorized as beneficial substance for plants. However, humans directly influence Si cycling on a global scale. Intensified agriculture and corresponding harvest-related Si exports lead to Si losses in agricultural soils. This anthropogenic desilication might be a big challenge for modern agriculture. However, there is still only little knowledge about Si cycling in agricultural systems of the temperate zone, because most studies focus on rice and sugarcane production in (sub)tropical areas. Furthermore, many studies are performed for a short term only, and thus do not provide the opportunity to analyze slow changes in soil-plant systems (e.g., desilication) over long periods. We analyzed soil and plant samples from an ongoing long-term field experiment (established 1963) in the temperate zone (NE Germany) to evaluate the effects of different nitrogen-phosphoruspotassium (NPK) fertilization rates and crop straw recycling (i.e., straw incorporation) on anthropogenic desilication in the long term. Our results clearly show that crop straw recycling not only prevents anthropogenic desilication (about 43-60% of Si exports can be saved by crop straw recycling in the long term), but also replenishes plant available Si stocks of agricultural soil-plant systems. Furthermore, we found that a reduction of N fertilization rates of about 69% is possible without considerable biomass losses. This economy of the need for N fertilizers potentially can be combined with the benefits of crop straw recycling, i.e., enhancement of carbon sequestration via straw inputs and prevention of anthropogenic desilication of agricultural soil-plant systems. Thus crop straw recycling might have the potential to act as key management practice in sustainable, low fertilization agriculture in the temperate zone in the future.
KW  - Sustainable crop production
KW  - Straw incorporation
KW  - Phytoliths
KW  - Silicon exports
KW  - Plant available Si
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2021.115187
SN  - 0016-7061
SN  - 1872-6259
VL  - 403
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rabbi, Sifat E.
A1  - Shant, Reza
A1  - Karmakar, Sourav
A1  - Habib, Azhar
A1  - Kropp, Jürgen
T1  - Regional mapping of climate variability index and identifying
JF  - Environment, development and sustainability : a multidisciplinary approach to the theory and practice of sustainable development
N2  - Studies conducted in Bangladesh so far did not unequivocally identify the modus operandi of local farmers to perceive and experience the climate variability at a national scale. Hence, this study aims to decipher local farmer's perception on climate variability for the last 10 years, by constructing climate variability index (CVI). Additionally, this study demystified the socio-economic determinants for influencing farmer perception regarding climate variability as well as its impact on their livelihoods. The study was designed on a cross-sectional data through a country-wide primary survey of 16,053 households who were largely dependent on agriculture. A weighted index was constructed for mapping the regional climate variability using model-builder programming in ArcGIS. Also, a multivariable probit model was employed to identify the factors influencing farmers' perception and resulting impact of climate variability on their livelihoods. According to local farmer's perception, the CVI mapping identified that Bangladesh experienced variegated climatic variability since last 10 years. However, local farmer's perception varied with different socio-economic factors like gender, education, farmer's category, credit, monthly income and access to media. Moreover, landless, small and medium farm holders were more aware of the local climate variability and eventually, they also experienced the higher influence of climate variability on their livelihoods. Since an effective mapping of regional climate variability is a sine qua non to devise region specific policies, this study will facilitate the government to determine its priorities, formulate efficacious strategies and thereby help to adapt with future climate-induced risks and vulnerabilities.
KW  - Farmer's climate variability perception
KW  - Climate variability index
KW  - Mapping
KW  - Socio-economic factors
KW  - Bangladesh
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-020-01104-2
SN  - 1387-585X
SN  - 1573-2975
VL  - 23
IS  - 7
SP  - 11050
EP  - 11066
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rainer, Edda M.
A1  - Seppey, Christophe Victor William
A1  - Hammer, Caroline
A1  - Svenning, Mette M.
A1  - Tveit, Alexander Tosdal
T1  - The influence of above-ground herbivory on the response of Arctic soil methanotrophs to increasing CH4 concentrations and temperatures
JF  - Microorganisms : open access journal
N2  - Rising temperatures in the Arctic affect soil microorganisms, herbivores, and peatland vegetation, thus directly and indirectly influencing microbial CH4 production. It is not currently known how methanotrophs in Arctic peat respond to combined changes in temperature, CH4 concentration, and vegetation. We studied methanotroph responses to temperature and CH4 concentration in peat exposed to herbivory and protected by exclosures. The methanotroph activity was assessed by CH4 oxidation rate measurements using peat soil microcosms and a pure culture of Methylobacter tundripaludum SV96, qPCR, and sequencing of pmoA transcripts. Elevated CH4 concentrations led to higher CH4 oxidation rates both in grazed and exclosed peat soils, but the strongest response was observed in grazed peat soils. Furthermore, the relative transcriptional activities of different methanotroph community members were affected by the CH4 concentrations. While transcriptional responses to low CH4 concentrations were more prevalent in grazed peat soils, responses to high CH4 concentrations were more prevalent in exclosed peat soils. We observed no significant methanotroph responses to increasing temperatures. We conclude that methanotroph communities in these peat soils respond to changes in the CH4 concentration depending on their previous exposure to grazing. This "conditioning " influences which strains will thrive and, therefore, determines the function of the methanotroph community.
KW  - methanotroph
KW  - methane oxidation
KW  - pmoA amplicon sequencing
KW  - Methylobacter
KW  - grazing pressure
KW  - peat soil microcosms
KW  - temperature
KW  - Arctic
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms9102080
SN  - 2076-2607
VL  - 9
IS  - 10
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  -