TY - JOUR A1 - Engels, Stefan A1 - Medeiros, Andrew S. A1 - Axford, Yarrow A1 - Brooks, Steve A1 - Heiri, Oliver A1 - Luoto, Tomi P. A1 - Nazarova, Larisa B. A1 - Porinchu, David F. A1 - Quinlan, Roberto A1 - Self, Angela E. T1 - Temperature change as a driver of spatial patterns and long-term trends in chironomid (Insecta: Diptera) diversity JF - Global change biology N2 - Anthropogenic activities have led to a global decline in biodiversity, and monitoring studies indicate that both insect communities and wetland ecosystems are particularly affected. However, there is a need for long-term data (over centennial or millennial timescales) to better understand natural community dynamics and the processes that govern the observed trends. Chironomids (Insecta: Diptera: Chironomidae) are often the most abundant insects in lake ecosystems, sensitive to environmental change, and, because their larval exoskeleton head capsules preserve well in lake sediments, they provide a unique record of insect community dynamics through time. Here, we provide the results of a metadata analysis of chironomid diversity across a range of spatial and temporal scales. First, we analyse spatial trends in chironomid diversity using Northern Hemispheric data sets overall consisting of 837 lakes. Our results indicate that in most of our data sets, summer temperature (T-jul) is strongly associated with spatial trends in modern-day chironomid diversity. We observe a strong increase in chironomid alpha diversity with increasing T-jul in regions with present-day T-jul between 2.5 and 14 degrees C. In some areas with T-jul > 14 degrees C, chironomid diversity stabilizes or declines. Second, we demonstrate that the direction and amplitude of change in alpha diversity in a compilation of subfossil chironomid records spanning the last glacial-interglacial transition (similar to 15,000-11,000 years ago) are similar to those observed in our modern data. A compilation of Holocene records shows that during phases when the amplitude of temperature change was small, site-specific factors had a greater influence on the chironomid fauna obscuring the chironomid diversity-temperature relationship. Our results imply expected overall chironomid diversity increases in colder regions such as the Arctic under sustained global warming, but with complex and not necessarily predictable responses for individual sites. KW - Arctic KW - biodiversity KW - climate warming KW - freshwater ecosystems KW - insects KW - palaeoecology KW - Quaternary Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14862 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 26 IS - 3 SP - 1155 EP - 1169 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - THES A1 - Heybl, Christine T1 - Der Klimawandel T1 - Climate change BT - Warum wir die Verantwortung haben, die entstehenden Probleme gerecht zu lösen und warum wir es nicht tun! BT - Why do we have the responsibility to realize juste solution and why we do not do it! N2 - Was ist Gerechtigkeit? Wie könnten gerechte Regelungen aussehen für die Katastrophen und Leiden, die der Klimawandel auslöst bzw. auslösen wird? Diese sind häufig ungerecht, weil sie oft deutlich stärker diejenigen treffen, die am wenigsten zur Klimaveränderung beigetragen haben. Doch was genau verstehen wir unter dem Schlagwort: ‚Klimawandel‘? Und kann dieser wirklich den Menschen direkt treffen? Ein kurzer naturwissenschaftlicher Abriss klärt hier die wichtigsten Fragen. Da es sich hierbei um eine philosophische Arbeit handelt, muss zunächst geklärt werden, ob der Mensch überhaupt die Ursache von so etwas sein kann wie z.B. der Klimaerwärmung. Robert Spaemanns These dazu ist, dass der Mensch durch seinen freien Willen mit seinen Einzelhandlungen das Weltgeschehen verändern kann. Hans Jonas fügt dem hinzu, dass wir durch diese Fähigkeit, verantwortlich sind für die gewollten und ungewollten Folgen unserer Handlungen. Damit wäre aus naturwissenschaftlicher Sicht (1. Teil der Arbeit) und aus philosophischer Sicht (Anfang 2. Teil) geklärt, dass der Mensch mit größter Wahrscheinlichkeit die Ursache des Klimawandels ist und diese Verursachung moralische Konsequenzen für ihn hat. Ein philosophischer Gerechtigkeitsbegriff wird aus der Kantischen Rechts- und Moralphilosophie entwickelt, weil diese die einzige ist, die dem Menschen überhaupt ein Recht auf Rechte zusprechen kann. Diese entspringt der transzendentalen Freiheitsfähigkeit des Menschen, weshalb jedem das Recht auf Rechte absolut und immer zukommt. Gleichzeitig mündet Kants Philosophie wiederum in dem Freiheitsgedanken, indem Gerechtigkeit nur existiert, wenn alle Menschen gleichermaßen frei sein können. Was heißt das konkret? Wie könnte Gerechtigkeit in der Realität wirklich umgesetzt werden? Die Realisierung schlägt zwei Grundrichtungen ein. John Rawls und Stefan Gosepath beschäftigen sich u.a. eingehend mit der prozeduralen Gerechtigkeit, was bedeutet, dass gerechte Verfahren gefunden werden, die das gesellschaftliche Zusammenleben regeln. Das leitende Prinzip hierfür ist vor allem: ein Mitbestimmungsrecht aller, so dass sich im Prinzip alle Bürger ihre Gesetze selbst geben und damit frei handeln. In Bezug auf den Klimawandel steht die zweite Ausrichtung im Vordergrund – die distributive oder auch Verteilungs-Gerechtigkeit. Materielle Güter müssen so aufgeteilt werden, dass auch trotz empirischer Unterschiede alle Menschen als moralische Subjekte anerkannt werden und frei sein können. Doch sind diese philosophischen Schlussfolgerungen nicht viel zu abstrakt, um auf ein ebenso schwer fassbares und globales Problem wie den Klimawandel angewendet zu werden? Was könnte daher eine Klimagerechtigkeit sein? Es gibt viele Gerechtigkeitsprinzipien, die vorgeben, eine gerechte Grundlage für die Klimaprobleme zu bieten wie z.B. das Verursacherprinzip, das Fähigkeitsprinzip oder das Grandfathering-Prinzip, bei dem die Hauptverursacher nach wie vor am meisten emittieren dürfen (dieses Prinzip leitete die bisherigen internationalen Verhandlungen). Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist, herauszufinden, wie die Klimaprobleme gelöst werden können, so dass für alle Menschen unter allen Umständen die universellen Menschenrechte her- und sichergestellt werden und diese frei und moralisch handeln können. Die Schlussfolgerung dieser Arbeit ist, dass Kants Gerechtigkeitsbegriff durch eine Kombination des Subsistenzemissions-Rechts, des Greenhouse-Development-Rights-Principles (GDR-Prinzip) und einer internationalen Staatlichkeit durchgesetzt werden könnte. Durch das Subsistenzemissions-Recht hat jeder Mensch das Recht, so viel Energie zu verbrauchen und damit zusammenhängende Emissionen zu produzieren, dass er ein menschenwürdiges Leben führen kann. Das GDR-Prinzip errechnet den Anteil an der weltweiten Gesamtverantwortung zum Klimaschutz eines jeden Landes oder sogar eines jeden Weltbürgers, indem es die historischen Emissionen (Klimaschuld) zu der jetzigen finanziellen Kapazität des Landes/ des Individuums (Verantwortungsfähigkeit) hinzuaddiert. Die Implementierung von internationalen Gremien wird verteidigt, weil es ein globales, grenzüberschreitendes Problem ist, dessen Effekte und dessen Verantwortung globale Ausmaße haben. Ein schlagendes Argument für fast alle Klimaschutzmaßnahmen ist, dass sie Synergien aufweisen zu anderen gesellschaftlichen Bereichen aufweisen wie z.B. Gesundheit und Armutsbekämpfung, in denen auch noch um die Durchsetzung unserer Menschenrechte gerungen wird. Ist dieser Lösungsansatz nicht völlig utopisch? Dieser Vorschlag stellt für die internationale Gemeinschaft eine große Herausforderung dar, wäre jedoch die einzig gerechte Lösung unserer Klimaprobleme. Des Weiteren wird an dem Kantischen Handlungsgrundsatz festgehalten, dass das ewige Streben auf ideale Ziele hin, die beste Verwirklichung dieser durch menschliche, fehlbare Wesen ist. N2 - What is justice? What could be fair regulations concerning the catastrophes and the suffering that will be evoked/are already evoked by climate change? These are often unfair, because they strike most likely the people who contributed the less to climate warming. But what do we mean with the term ‘climate change’? Can this phenomenon really strike human beings directly? A short scientific introduction explains the most important questions. Like this is a philosophical analysis, there has to be clarified if mankind can be the origin of something like global warming. The statement of Robert Spaemann is that a person can change the world affairs by a single action. Hans Jonas adds to this that this capacity imposes us the responsibility for the wanted and the unwanted effects of our action. With this first part of the work (scientific introduction) and the beginning of the second part (philosophical part) it is proved that human beings can be the reason for climate change and that this causation has a moral impact on them. I extracted a philosophical term of ‘justice’ out of the moral theory of Immanuel Kant because to my mind, this is the only philosophical and scientific approach which is able to grant us a right of rights. The right of rights belongs absolutely and under every circumstance to every person because it originates in the transcendental capacity of freedom of human beings. At the same time it ends up in the thought of freedom like justice can only exist if every human being can be free. What does this mean precisely? How could justice be implemented in the reality? The realization drives in two principal directions. John Rawls and Stefan Gosepath examined thoroughly the procedural justice that means that fair procedures have to be found to organize the living together in a society. The main principle here above all is the participation of decision making of all members of the society like that everybody could have decided the rules himself. Therefore everybody acts after his own decisions and freely. Concerning climate change, the second possibility of justice is more crucial – the justice of distribution. Material goods have to be allocated the way that all people can be acknowledged as moral subjects. Likewise everybody can be free despite of empirical differences. But are these philosophical conclusions not way to abstract to be applied for a complex and global problem like climate change? What could be a concrete climate justice? There are a lot of principles of justice that are supposed to give a fair basis within the sector of climate problems like the polluter-pays-principle, the ability-to-pay-principle, the grandfathering-principle. The last one allows the main polluters to still emit the majority of the worldwide emissions in the future. This view of orientation led mainly all the international negotiations in the past. The aim of this thesis is to find out how climate problems can be solved the way that every person can be assured of his basic human rights. Consequently everybody would have the possibility to act freely and morally. The conclusion of this written work is that the meaning of justice in the sense of the Kantian theory can be realized by a combination of the subsistence emissions right, the greenhouse-development-rights-principles (GDR-principle) and international institutions. The subsistence emissions right guaranties every person the right to use as much energy and therefore produce as many emissions, the person needs to lead a dignified life. The GDR-principle faces the worldwide responsibility to mitigate climate change and calculates the portion of responsibility of each country or even of each citizen. It does this by adding the quantity of historical emissions (the climate debt) to the current financial capacity of each country or citizen (responsibility). The implementation of international committees is necessary because climate warming is a global, boarder passing problem which possible solutions have inadvertently global dimensions. A crucial argument for nearly all mitigation measures is that they almost always offer synergetic effects to other social sectors like health or the fight against global poverty which demand as well urgently the enforcement of our basic human rights. But is this solution not totally idealistic? This proposition would pose a big challenge to the international community. At the same time it is the only fair solution to climate change for all human beings. Furthermore and eventually, we have to focus on the Kantian solution that the eternal striving towards this idealization is the best way human fallible beings can achieve to realize utopic solutions. KW - Klimawandel KW - Gerechtigkeit KW - Immanuel Kant KW - GDR-Prinzip KW - Klimaerwärmung KW - climate change KW - climate warming KW - Immanuel Kant KW - GDR-principle KW - justice Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-102442 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mooij, Wolf M. A1 - Trolle, Dennis A1 - Jeppesen, Erik A1 - Arhonditsis, George B. A1 - Belolipetsky, Pavel V. A1 - Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. A1 - Degermendzhy, Andrey G. A1 - DeAngelis, Donald L. A1 - Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont A1 - Downing, Andrea S. A1 - Elliott, J. Alex A1 - Fragoso Jr, Carlos Ruberto A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Genova, Svetlana N. A1 - Gulati, Ramesh D. A1 - Håkanson, Lars A1 - Hamilton, David P. A1 - Hipsey, Matthew R. A1 - ‘t Hoen, Jochem A1 - Hülsmann, Stephan A1 - Los, F. Hans A1 - Makler-Pick, Vardit A1 - Petzoldt, Thomas A1 - Prokopkin, Igor G. A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Schep, Sebastiaan A. A1 - Tominaga, Koji A1 - Van Dam, Anne A. A1 - Van Nes, Egbert H. A1 - Wells, Scott A. A1 - Janse, Jan H. T1 - Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches JF - Aquatic ecology N2 - A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models. KW - aquatic KW - food web dynamics KW - plankton KW - nutrients KW - spatial KW - lake KW - freshwater KW - marine KW - community KW - population KW - hydrology KW - eutrophication KW - global change KW - climate warming KW - fisheries KW - biodiversity KW - management KW - mitigation KW - adaptive processes KW - non-linear dynamics KW - analysis KW - bifurcation KW - understanding KW - prediction KW - model limitations KW - model integration Y1 - 2010 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10452-010-9339-3 SN - 1573-5125 SN - 1386-2588 VL - 44 SP - 633 EP - 667 PB - Springer Science + Business Media B.V. CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mooij, Wolf M. A1 - Trolle, Dennis A1 - Jeppesen, Erik A1 - Arhonditsis, George B. A1 - Belolipetsky, Pavel V. A1 - Chitamwebwa, Deonatus B. R. A1 - Degermendzhy, Andrey G. A1 - DeAngelis, Donald L. A1 - Domis, Lisette Nicole de Senerpont A1 - Downing, Andrea S. A1 - Elliott, J. Alex A1 - Fragoso Jr., Carlos Ruberto A1 - Gaedke, Ursula A1 - Genova, Svetlana N. A1 - Gulati, Ramesh D. A1 - Håkanson, Lars A1 - Hamilton, David P. A1 - Hipsey, Matthew R. A1 - ‘t Hoen, Jochem A1 - Hülsmann, Stephan A1 - Los, F. Hans A1 - Makler-Pick, Vardit A1 - Petzoldt, Thomas A1 - Prokopkin, Igor G. A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Schep, Sebastiaan A. A1 - Tominaga, Koji A1 - Van Dam, Anne A. A1 - Van Nes, Egbert H. A1 - Wells, Scott A. A1 - Janse, Jan H. T1 - Challenges and opportunities for integrating lake ecosystem modelling approaches T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - A large number and wide variety of lake ecosystem models have been developed and published during the past four decades. We identify two challenges for making further progress in this field. One such challenge is to avoid developing more models largely following the concept of others ('reinventing the wheel'). The other challenge is to avoid focusing on only one type of model, while ignoring new and diverse approaches that have become available ('having tunnel vision'). In this paper, we aim at improving the awareness of existing models and knowledge of concurrent approaches in lake ecosystem modelling, without covering all possible model tools and avenues. First, we present a broad variety of modelling approaches. To illustrate these approaches, we give brief descriptions of rather arbitrarily selected sets of specific models. We deal with static models (steady state and regression models), complex dynamic models (CAEDYM, CE-QUAL-W2, Delft 3D-ECO, LakeMab, LakeWeb, MyLake, PCLake, PROTECH, SALMO), structurally dynamic models and minimal dynamic models. We also discuss a group of approaches that could all be classified as individual based: super-individual models (Piscator, Charisma), physiologically structured models, stage-structured models and traitbased models. We briefly mention genetic algorithms, neural networks, Kalman filters and fuzzy logic. Thereafter, we zoom in, as an in-depth example, on the multi-decadal development and application of the lake ecosystem model PCLake and related models (PCLake Metamodel, Lake Shira Model, IPH-TRIM3D-PCLake). In the discussion, we argue that while the historical development of each approach and model is understandable given its 'leading principle', there are many opportunities for combining approaches. We take the point of view that a single 'right' approach does not exist and should not be strived for. Instead, multiple modelling approaches, applied concurrently to a given problem, can help develop an integrative view on the functioning of lake ecosystems. We end with a set of specific recommendations that may be of help in the further development of lake ecosystem models. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1326 KW - aquatic KW - food web dynamics KW - plankton KW - nutrients KW - spatial KW - lake KW - freshwater KW - marine KW - community KW - population KW - hydrology KW - eutrophication KW - global change KW - climate warming KW - fisheries KW - biodiversity KW - management KW - mitigation KW - adaptive processes KW - non-linear dynamics KW - analysis KW - bifurcation KW - understanding KW - prediction KW - model limitations KW - model integration Y1 - 2010 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429839 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1326 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Seebens, Hanno A1 - Essl, Franz A1 - Dawson, Wayne A1 - Fuentes, Nicol A1 - Moser, Dietmar A1 - Pergl, Jan A1 - Pysek, Petr A1 - van Kleunen, Mark A1 - Weber, Ewald A1 - Winter, Marten A1 - Blasius, Bernd T1 - Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change JF - Global change biology N2 - Trade plays a key role in the spread of alien species and has arguably contributed to the recent enormous acceleration of biological invasions, thus homogenizing biotas worldwide. Combining data on 60-year trends of bilateral trade, as well as on biodiversity and climate, we modeled the global spread of plant species among 147 countries. The model results were compared with a recently compiled unique global data set on numbers of naturalized alien vascular plant species representing the most comprehensive collection of naturalized plant distributions currently available. The model identifies major source regions, introduction routes, and hot spots of plant invasions that agree well with observed naturalized plant numbers. In contrast to common knowledge, we show that the 'imperialist dogma,' stating that Europe has been a net exporter of naturalized plants since colonial times, does not hold for the past 60 years, when more naturalized plants were being imported to than exported from Europe. Our results highlight that the current distribution of naturalized plants is best predicted by socioeconomic activities 20 years ago. We took advantage of the observed time lag and used trade developments until recent times to predict naturalized plant trajectories for the next two decades. This shows that particularly strong increases in naturalized plant numbers are expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions. The interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce them in tropical and (sub) tropical regions, yet not by enough to cancel out the trade-related increase. KW - alien vascular plants KW - bioinvasion KW - climate warming KW - global spread KW - imperialist dogma KW - model KW - network of plant invasion Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13021 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 21 IS - 11 SP - 4128 EP - 4140 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER -