TY - JOUR A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Müller, Meike T1 - Schlussfolgerungen und Empfehlungen JF - Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bewährungsprobe für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland Y1 - 2015 SN - 978-3-933181-62-6 SP - 184 EP - 196 PB - Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge CY - Bonn ER - TY - GEN A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Mühr, Bernhard A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013 N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 294 KW - August 2002 flood KW - Central Europe KW - Floods Directive KW - June 2013 flood KW - governance KW - risk management cycle Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-100600 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Mühr, Bernhard A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013 JF - Ecology and society : E&S ; a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders. KW - August 2002 flood KW - Central Europe KW - Floods Directive KW - governance KW - June 2013 flood KW - risk management cycle Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08547-210251 SN - 1708-3087 SN - 1195-5449 VL - 21 IS - 2 PB - Resilience Alliance CY - Wolfville, NS ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Muehr, Bernhard A1 - Mueller, Meike A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Schroeter, Kai T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013 JF - Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of (sic)6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of (sic)11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders. KW - August 2002 flood KW - Central Europe KW - Floods Directive KW - governance KW - June 2013 flood KW - risk management cycle Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08547-210251 SN - 1708-3087 VL - 21 SP - 8612 EP - 8614 PB - Resilience Alliance CY - Wolfville ER - TY - BOOK A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette A1 - Bessel, Tina A1 - Callsen, Ines A1 - Falter, Daniela A1 - Hasan, Issa A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Kox, Thomas A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Matthias, Max A1 - Meyer, Volker A1 - Mühr, Bernhard A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Pech, Ina A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Rother, Karl-Heinz A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 BT - Bewährungsprobe für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland T3 - Schriftenreihe des DKKV ; 53 Y1 - 2015 SN - 978-3-933181-62-6 PB - Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge CY - Bonn ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Entwicklunge in der Flächenvorsorge JF - Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bewährungsprobe für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland Y1 - 2015 SN - 978-3-933181-62-6 SP - 92 EP - 99 PB - Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge CY - Bonn ER - TY - GEN A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Analysis of Flash Floods in Germany T2 - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung Y1 - 2017 SN - 1439-1783 VL - 61 SP - 212 EP - 212 PB - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde CY - Koblenz ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Hasan, Issa A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Entwicklungen in der Gesetzgebung zm Hochwasserrisikomanagment JF - Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bewährungsprobe für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland Y1 - 2015 SN - 978-3-933181-62-6 SP - 47 EP - 51 PB - Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge CY - Bonn ER - TY - THES A1 - Petrow, Theresia T1 - Floods in Germany : analyses of trends, seasonality and circulation patterns T1 - Hochwasser in Deutschland : Untersuchungen zu Trends, Saisonalität und Großwetterlagen N2 - Flood hazard estimations are conducted with a variety of methods. These include flood frequency analysis (FFA), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, probable maximum discharges as well as climate scenarios. However, most of these methods assume stationarity of the used time series, i.e., the series must not exhibit trends. Against the background of climate change and proven significant trends in atmospheric circulation patterns, it is questionable whether these changes are also reflected in the discharge data. The aim of this PhD thesis is therefore to clarify, in a spatially-explicit manner, whether the available discharge data derived from selected German catchments exhibit trends. Concerning the flood hazard, the suitability of the currently used stationary FFA approaches is evaluated for the discharge data. Moreover, dynamics in atmospheric circulation patterns are studied and the link between trends in these patterns and discharges is investigated. To tackle this research topic, a number of different analyses are conducted. The first part of the PhD thesis comprises the study and trend test of 145 discharge series from catchments, which cover most of Germany for the period 1951–2002. The seasonality and trend pattern of eight flood indicators, such as maximum series and peak-over-threshold series, are analyzed in a spatially-explicit manner. Analyses are performed on different spatial scales: at the local scale, through gauge-specific analyses, and on the catchment-wide and basin scales. Besides the analysis of discharge series, data on atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) are an important source of information, upon which conclusions about the flood hazard can be drawn. The analyses of these circulation patterns (after Hess und Brezowsky) and the study of the link to peak discharges form the second part of the thesis. For this, daily data on the dominant CP across Europe are studied; these are represented by different indicators, which are tested for trend. Moreover, analyses are performed to extract flood triggering circulation patterns and to estimate the flood potential of CPs. Correlations between discharge series and CP indicators are calculated to assess a possible link between them. For this research topic, data from 122 meso-scale catchments in the period 1951–2002 are used. In a third part, the Mulde catchment, a mesoscale sub-catchment of the Elbe basin, is studied in more detail. Fifteen discharge series of different lengths in the period 1910–2002 are available for the seasonally differentiated analysis of the flood potential of CPs and flood influencing landscape parameters. For trend tests of discharge and CP data, different methods are used. The Mann-Kendall test is applied with a significance level of 10%, ensuring statistically sound results. Besides the test of the entire series for trend, multiple time-varying trend tests are performed with the help of a resampling approach in order to better differentiate short-term fluctuations from long-lasting trends. Calculations of the field significance complement the flood hazard assessment for the studied regions. The present thesis shows that the flood hazard is indeed significantly increasing for selected regions in Germany during the winter season. Especially affected are the middle mountain ranges in Central Germany. This increase of the flood hazard is attributed to a longer persistence of selected CPs during winter. Increasing trends in summer floods are found in the Rhine and Danube catchments, decreasing trends in the Elbe and Weser catchments. Finally, a significant trend towards a reduced diversity of CPs is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. The detailed study of the Mulde catchment reveals a flood regime with frequent low winter floods and fewer summer floods, which bear, however, the potential of becoming extreme. Based on the results, the use of instationary approaches for flood hazard estimation is recommended in order to account for the detected trends in many of the series. Through this methodology it is possible to directly consider temporal changes in flood series, which in turn reduces the possibility of large under- or overestimations of the extreme discharges, respectively. N2 - Hochwasserabschätzungen werden mit Hilfe einer Vielzahl von Methoden ermittelt. Zu diesen zählen Hochwasserhäufigkeitsanalysen, die hydrologische und hydraulische Modellierung, Abschätzungen zu maximal möglichen Abflüssen wie auch Langzeitstudien und Klimaszenarien. Den meisten Methoden ist jedoch gemein, dass sie stationäre Bedingungen der beobachteten Abflussdaten annehmen. Das heißt, in den genutzten Zeitreihen dürfen keine Trends vorliegen. Vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels und nachgewiesener Trends in atmosphärischen Zirkulationsmustern, stellt sich jedoch die Frage, ob sich diese Veränderungen nicht auch in den Abflussdaten widerspiegeln. Ziel der Dissertation ist daher die Überprüfung der Annahme von Trendfreiheit in Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen, um zu klären, ob die aktuell genutzten stationären Verfahren zur Hochwasserbemessung für die vorhandenen Daten in Deutschland geeignet sind. Zu prüfen ist des Weiteren, inwiefern regional und saisonal eine Verschärfung bzw. Abschwächung der Hochwassergefahr beobachtet werden kann und ob eindeutige Korrelationen zwischen Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen bestehen. Den ersten Schwerpunkt der vorliegenden Dissertation bildet die deutschlandweite Analyse von 145 Abflusszeitreihen für den Zeitraum 1951–2002. Acht Hochwasserindikatoren, die verschiedene Aspekte der Hochwasser-Charakteristik beleuchten, werden analysiert und bezüglich möglicher Trends getestet. Um saisonalen Unterschieden in der Hochwassercharakteristik der einzelnen Regionen gerecht zu werden, werden neben jährlichen auch saisonale Reihen untersucht. Die Analyse von Maximalreihen wird durch Schwellenwertanalysen ergänzt, die die Hochwasserdynamik bzgl. Frequenz und Magnitude detaillierter erfassen. Die Daten werden auf verschiedenen Skalen untersucht: sowohl für jeden einzelnen Pegel wie auch für ganze Regionen und Einzugsgebiete. Nicht nur die Analyse der Abflussdaten bietet die Möglichkeit, Bewertungen für die zukünftige Hochwasserabschätzung abzuleiten. Auch Großwetterlagen bilden eine bedeutende Informationsquelle über die Hochwassergefahr, da in der Regel nur ausgewählte Zirkulationsmuster die Entstehung von Hochwasser begünstigen. Die saisonal differenzierte Untersuchung der Großwetterlagen und die Prüfung einer Korrelation zu den Abflüssen an 122 mesoskaligen Einzugsgebieten bilden deshalb den zweiten Schwerpunkt der Arbeit. Hierzu werden tägliche Daten der über Europa dominierenden Großwetterlage (nach Hess und Brezowsky) mit Hilfe verschiedener Indikatoren untersucht. Analysen zum Hochwasserpotential der einzelnen Wetterlagen und weiterer Einflussfaktoren werden für das mesoskalige Einzugsgebiet der Mulde in einer separaten Studie durchgeführt. Für diese Detail-Studie stehen 15 Abflusszeitreihen verschiedener Länge im Zeitraum 1909–2002 zur Verfügung. Um die Daten von Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen bezüglich vorhandener Trends zu testen, werden verschiedene Methoden genutzt. Der Mann-Kendall Test wird mit einem Signifikanzniveau von 10% (zweiseitiger Test) angewendet, was statistisch sichere Bewertungen ermöglicht. Neben der Prüfung der gesamten Datenreihe werden multiple zeitlich-variable Trendanalysen mit Hilfe eines Resampling-Ansatzes durchgeführt. Darüber hinaus werden räumlich differenzierte Analysen durchgeführt, um die saisonale Hochwassercharakteristik einzelner Regionen besser zu verstehen. Diese werden durch Tests zur Feldsignifikanz der Trends ergänzt. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit kann gezeigt werden, dass die Hochwassergefahr für einzelne Regionen im Winterhalbjahr signifikant steigt. Davon sind insbesondere Gebiete in Mitteldeutschland betroffen. Die Verschärfung der Hochwassergefahr durch eine längere Persistenz ausgewählter Großwetterlagen konnte ebenfalls für das Winterhalbjahr nachgewiesen werden. Sommerhochwasser zeigen zwar ebenfalls steigende, aber auch fallende Trends, die räumlich geclustert sind. Im Elbe- und Weser-Einzugsgebiet sinken die Abflüsse signifikant, im Donau- und Rheineinzugsgebiet steigen sie nachweisbar. Darüber hinaus ist eine signifikante Abnahme der Anzahl verschiedener Großwetterlagen sowohl im Sommer als auch im Winter zu verzeichnen. Bzgl. der Studie zum Mulde-Einzugsgebiet konnte ein zweigeteiltes Hochwasserregime nachgewiesen werden. In den Wintermonaten treten häufig kleine Hochwasser auf, die auch die Mehrheit der jährlichen Maximalwerte bilden. Sommerhochwasser sind seltener, können aber extreme Ausmaße annehmen. Ein Vergleich der geschätzten Jährlichkeiten mit verschiedenen Zeitreihen zeigt die Notwendigkeit der Berücksichtigung saisonaler Aspekte für die Bemessung von Hochwassern. Aufgrund der Ergebnisse müssen die bisher genutzten stationären Verfahren als nicht mehr geeignet bewertet werden. Es wird daher die Nutzung instationärer Verfahren zur Abschätzung von Extremhochwasser und der damit verbundenen Bemessung von Schutzmaßnahmen empfohlen, um den teilweise vorliegenden Trends in den Daten Rechnung zu tragen. Durch diesen Ansatz ist es möglich, zeitlich dynamische Veränderungen im Hochwassergeschehen stärker zu berücksichtigen. Darüber hinaus sollten saisonale Aspekte des Einzugsgebietes Eingang in die Gefahrenabschätzung finden. KW - Hochwasser KW - Deutschland KW - Saisonalität KW - Großwetterlage KW - Trends KW - floods KW - Germany KW - trends KW - circulation patterns KW - seasonality Y1 - 2009 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-37392 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - López-Tarazón, José Andrés A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette A1 - Petrow, Theresia ED - López-Tarazón, José Andrés ED - Bronstert, Axel ED - Thieken, Annegret Henriette ED - Petrow, Theresia T1 - International symposium on the effects of global change on floods, fluvial geomorphology and related hazards in mountainous rivers T2 - Book of Abstracts N2 - Both Alpine and Mediterranean areas are considered sensitive to so-called global change, considered as the combination of climate and land use changes. All panels on climate evolution predict future scenarios of increasing frequency and magnitude of floods which are likely to lead to huge geomorphic adjustments of river channels so major metamorphosis of fluvial systems is expected as a result of global change. Such pressures are likely to give rise to major ecological and economic changes and challenges that governments need to address as a matter of priority. Changes in river flow regimes associated with global change are therefore ushering in a new era, where there is a critical need to evaluate hydro-geomorphological hazards from headwaters to lowland areas (flooding can be not just a problem related to being under the water). A key question is how our understanding of these hazards associated with global change can be improved; improvement has to come from integrated research which includes the climatological and physical conditions that could influence the hydrology and sediment generation and hence the conveyance of water and sediments (including the river’s capacity, i.e. amount of sediment, and competence, i.e. channel deformation) and the vulnerabilities and economic repercussions of changing hydrological hazards (including the evaluation of the hydro-geomorphological risks too). Within this framework, the purpose of this international symposium is to bring together researchers from several disciplines as hydrology, fluvial geomorphology, hydraulic engineering, environmental science, geography, economy (and any other related discipline) to discuss the effects of global change over the river system in relation with floods. The symposium is organized by means of invited talks given by prominent experts, oral lectures, poster sessions and discussion sessions for each individual topic; it will try to improve our understanding of how rivers are likely to evolve as a result of global change and hence address the associated hazards of that fluvial environmental change concerning flooding. Four main topics are going to be addressed: - Modelling global change (i.e. climate and land-use) at relevant spatial (regional, local) and temporal (from the long-term to the single-event) scales. - Measuring and modelling river floods from the hydrological, sediment transport (both suspended and bedload) and channel morphology points of view at different spatial (from the catchment to the reach) and temporal (from the long-term to the single-event) scales. - Evaluation and assessment of current and future river flooding hazards and risks in a global change perspective. - Catchment management to face river floods in a changing world. We are very pleased to welcome you to Potsdam. We hope you will enjoy your participation at the International Symposium on the Effects of Global Change on Floods, Fluvial Geomorphology and Related Hazards in Mountainous Rivers and have an exciting and profitable experience. Finally, we would like to thank all speakers, participants, supporters, and sponsors for their contributions that for sure will make of this event a very remarkable and fruitful meeting. We acknowledge the valuable support of the European Commission (Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship, Project ‘‘Floodhazards’’, PIEF-GA-2013-622468, Seventh EU Framework Programme) and the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (Research Training Group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange; GRK 2043/1) as the symposium would not have been possible without their help. Without your cooperation, this symposium would not be either possible or successful. KW - natural hazards KW - mountainous rivers KW - floods KW - global change KW - geomorphology Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-396922 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Lopez Tarazon, José Andrés A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette A1 - Petrow, Theresia T1 - The effects of global change on floods, fluvial geomorphology and related hazards in mountainous rivers T2 - The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.03.026 SN - 0048-9697 SN - 1879-1026 VL - 669 SP - 7 EP - 10 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koç, Gamze A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Analysis of the Most Severe Flood Events in Turkey (1960–2014) BT - Which Triggering Mechanisms and Aggravating Pathways Can be Identified? JF - Water N2 - The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960–2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey. KW - hierarchical clustering KW - Hess-Brezowsky Großwetterlagen classification KW - ERA5 KW - flood hazards KW - pathway KW - Turkey Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061562 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 12 IS - 6 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - GEN A1 - Koç, Gamze A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Analysis of the Most Severe Flood Events in Turkey (1960–2014) BT - Which Triggering Mechanisms and Aggravating Pathways Can be Identified? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960–2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1003 KW - hierarchical clustering KW - Hess-Brezowsky Großwetterlagen classification KW - ERA5 KW - flood hazards KW - pathway KW - Turkey Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-477331 IS - 1003 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koc, Gamze A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Analysis of the most severe flood events in Turkey (1960-2014) BT - which triggering mechanisms and aggravating pathways can be identified? JF - Water / Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI) N2 - The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960-2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey. KW - hierarchical clustering KW - Hess-Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen classification KW - ERA5 KW - flood hazards KW - pathway KW - Turkey Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061562 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 12 IS - 6 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Berghäuser, Lisa A1 - Schoppa, Lukas A1 - Ulrich, Jana A1 - Dillenardt, Lisa A1 - Jurado, Oscar E. A1 - Passow, Christian A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Seleem, Omar A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Thieken, Annegret Henriette T1 - Starkregen in Berlin BT - Meteorologische Ereignisrekonstruktion und Betroffenenbefragung N2 - In den Sommern der Jahre 2017 und 2019 kam es in Berlin an mehreren Orten zu Überschwemmungen in Folge von Starkregenereignissen. In beiden Jahren führte dies zu erheblichen Beeinträchtigungen im Alltag der Berliner:innen sowie zu hohen Sachschäden. Eine interdisziplinäre Taskforce des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs NatRiskChange untersuchte (1) die meteorologischen Eigenschaften zweier besonders eindrücklicher Unwetter, sowie (2) die Vulnerabilität der Berliner Bevölkerung gegenüber Starkregen. Eine vergleichende meteorologische Rekonstruktion der Starkregenereignisse von 2017 und 2019 ergab deutliche Unterschiede in der Entstehung und den Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeiten der beiden Unwetter. So war das Ereignis von 2017 mit einer relativ großen räumlichen Ausdehnung und langer Dauer ein untypisches Starkregenereignis, während es sich bei dem Unwetter von 2019 um ein typisches, kurzzeitiges Starkregenereignis mit ausgeprägter räumlicher Heterogenität handelte. Eine anschließende statistische Analyse zeigte, dass das Ereignis von 2017 für längere Niederschlagsdauern (>=24 h) als großflächiges Extremereignis mit Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeiten von unter 1 % einzuordnen ist (d.h. Wiederkehrperioden >=100 Jahre). Im Jahr 2019 wurden dagegen ähnliche Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeiten nur lokal und für kürzere Zeiträume (1-2 h) berechnet. Die Vulnerabilitätsanalyse basiert auf einer von April bis Juni 2020 in Berlin durchgeführten Onlinebefragung. Diese richtete sich an Personen, die bereits von vergangenen Starkregenereignissen betroffen waren und thematisierte das Schadensereignis selbst, daraus entstandene Beeinträchtigungen und Schäden, Risikowahrnehmung sowie Notfall- und Vorsorgemaßnahmen. Die erhobenen Umfragedaten (n=102) beziehen sich vornehmlich auf die Ereignisse von 2017 und 2019 und zeigen, dass die Berliner Bevölkerung sowohl im Alltag (z.B. bei der Beschaffung von Lebensmitteln) als auch im eigenen Haushalt (z.B. durch Überschwemmungsschäden) von den Unwettern beeinträchtigt war. Zudem deuteten die Antworten der Betroffenen auf Möglichkeiten hin, die Vulnerabilität der Gesellschaft gegenüber Starkregen weiter zu reduzieren - etwa durch die Unterstützung besonders betroffener Gruppen (z.B. Pflegende), durch gezielte Informationskampagnen zum Schutz vor Starkregen oder durch die Erhöhung der Reichweite von Unwetterwarnungen. Eine statistische Analyse zur Effektivität privater Notfall- und Vorsorgemaßnahmen auf Grundlage der Umfragedaten bestätigte vorherige Studienergebnisse. So gab es Anhaltspunkte dafür, dass durch das Umsetzen von Vorsorgemaßnahmen wie beispielsweise das Installieren von Rückstauklappen, Barriere-Systemen oder Pumpen Starkregenschäden reduziert werden können. Die Ergebnisse dieses Berichts unterstreichen die Notwendigkeit für ein integriertes Starkregenrisikomanagment, das die Risikokomponenten Gefährdung, Vulnerabilität und Exposition ganzheitlich und auf mehreren Ebenen (z.B. staatlich, kommunal, privat) betrachtet. N2 - In the summers of 2017 and 2019, the city of Berlin was hit by heavy rainfall leading to urban flooding in several locations. In both years, this led to considerable disruptions of the daily life and high property damage. With focus on two particularly impressive events a taskforce of the DFG Research Training Group NatRiskChange investigated (1) the meteorological characteristics of both events as well as (2) the vulnerability of the Berlin population to heavy rainfall. A comparative meteorological reconstruction of the 2017 and 2019 heavy rainfall events revealed fundamental differences between the two storms. The 2017 event was an atypical heavy rain event, as it was characterized by a relatively large spatial extent and long duration of rainfall, whereas the 2019 storm was a typical short duration heavy rain event with a distinct spatial heterogeneity. Subsequent statistical analysis indicated that the 2017 event should be classified as a large-scale extreme event with exceedance probabilities below 1 % for longer precipitation durations (i.e., return periods of over 100 years). In contrast, in 2019 similar exceedance probabilities were estimated only locally and for shorter durations (1-2 h). The vulnerability analysis of this taskforce was based on an online survey conducted in Berlin between April and June 2020. The survey was aimed at people who had experienced past heavy rainfall events in Berlin, and addressed the resulting impairments and damages, risk perceptions as well as emergency and preparedness measures. The survey data (n=102) primarily referred to the events of 2017 and 2019 and showed that the respondents were affected by the storms both in their daily lives (e.g., when purchasing food) and in their own households (e.g., due to flood damage). In addition, the analysis of the responses pointed to ways to further reduce society's vulnerability to heavy rain. That was, for example, by providing support to particularly affected groups (e.g., caregivers), through targeted information campaigns to protect against heavy rainfall or by improving the range of early warning systems. A statistical analysis of the efficacy of property-level emergency and preparedness measures based on the survey data confirmed previous study findings and provided evidence of reducing heavy rain damage through preparedness. The findings of the taskforce highlight the need for integrated heavy rainfall risk management that considers the risk components of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure holistically and at multiple levels (e.g., state, local and private households). KW - Starkregen KW - Risikomanagement KW - Meteorologische Ereignisanalyse KW - Betroffenenbefragung KW - Berlin KW - Urban Flooding KW - Risk reduction KW - Meteorological Event Analysis KW - Survey of affected residents KW - Berlin Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-500560 ER -