TY - JOUR A1 - Moustakas, Aristides A1 - Günther, Matthias A1 - Wiegand, Kerstin A1 - Müller, Karl-Heinz A1 - Ward, David A1 - Meyer, Katrin M. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Long-term mortality patterns of the deep-rooted Acacia erioloba BT - The middle class shall die! JF - Journal of vegetation science N2 - Question: Is there a relationship between size and death in the Iona-lived, deep-rooted tree, Acacia erioloba, in a semi-arid savanna? What is the size-class distribution of A. erioloba mortality? Does the mortality distribution differ from total tree size distribution? Does A. erioloba mortality distribution match the mortality distributions recorded thus far in other environments? Location: Dronfield Ranch, near Kimberley, Kalahari, South Africa. Methods: A combination of aerial photographs and a satellite image covering 61 year was used to provide long-term spatial data on mortality. We used aerial photographs of the study area from 1940, 1964, 1984, 1993 and a satellite image from 2001 to follow three plots covering 510 ha. We were able to identify and individually follow ca. 3000 individual trees from 1940 till 2001. Results: The total number of trees increased over time. No relationship between total number of trees and mean tree size was detected. There were no trends over time in total number of deaths per plot or in size distributions of dead trees. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests showed no differences in size class distributions for living trees through time. The size distribution of dead trees was significantly different from the size distribution of all trees present on the plots. Overall, the number of dead trees was low in small size classes, reached a peak value when canopy area was 20 - 30 m(2), and declined in lamer size-classes. Mortality as a ratio of dead vs. total trees peaked at intermediate canopy sizes too. Conclusion: A. erioloba mortality was size-dependent, peaking at intermediate sizes. The mortality distribution differs from all other tree mortality distributions recorded thus far. We suggest that a possible mechanism for this unusual mortality distribution is intraspecific competition for water in this semi-arid environment. KW - competition KW - long-term data KW - remote sensing KW - savanna KW - size dependent mortality KW - size distribution KW - tree death Y1 - 2006 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2006.tb02468.x SN - 1100-9233 VL - 17 SP - 473 EP - 480 PB - Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wieczorek, Mareike A1 - Kruse, Stefan A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia A1 - Kolmogorov, Alexei A1 - Nikolaev, Anatoly N. A1 - Heinrich, Ingo A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Zibulski, Romy A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Dissimilar responses of larch stands in northern Siberia to increasing temperatures-a field and simulation based study JF - Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America N2 - Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field-and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least similar to 240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning similar to 130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future. KW - climate change KW - closed forest KW - dendroecology KW - forest change KW - latitude KW - recruitment KW - tundra KW - vegetation model Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1887 SN - 0012-9658 SN - 1939-9170 VL - 98 SP - 2343 EP - 2355 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fer, Istem A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wolff, Christian Michael T1 - The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario JF - Biogeosciences N2 - The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017 SN - 1726-4170 SN - 1726-4189 VL - 14 SP - 4355 EP - 4374 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geyer, Juliane A1 - Kreft, Stefan A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ibisch, Pierre L. T1 - Assessing climate change-robustness of protected area management plans-The case of Germany JF - PLoS one N2 - Protected areas are arguably the most important instrument of biodiversity conservation. To keep them fit under climate change, their management needs to be adapted to address related direct and indirect changes. In our study we focus on the adaptation of conservation management planning, evaluating management plans of 60 protected areas throughout Germany with regard to their climate change-robustness. First, climate change-robust conservation management was defined using 11 principles and 44 criteria, which followed an approach similar to sustainability standards. We then evaluated the performance of individual management plans concerning the climate change-robustness framework. We found that climate change-robustness of protected areas hardly exceeded 50 percent of the potential performance, with most plans ranking in the lower quarter. Most Natura 2000 protected areas, established under conservation legislation of the European Union, belong to the sites with especially poor performance, with lower values in smaller areas. In general, the individual principles showed very different rates of accordance with our principles, but similarly low intensity. Principles with generally higher performance values included holistic knowledge management, public accountability and acceptance as well as systemic and strategic coherence. Deficiencies were connected to dealing with the future and uncertainty. Lastly, we recommended the presented principles and criteria as essential guideposts that can be used as a checklist for working towards more climate change-robust planning. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0185972 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 12 PB - PLoS CY - San Fransisco ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bergholz, Kolja A1 - May, Felix A1 - Ristow, Michael A1 - Giladi, Itamar A1 - Ziv, Yaron A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Two Mediterranean annuals feature high within-population trait variability and respond differently to a precipitation gradient JF - Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft für Ökologie N2 - Intraspecific trait variability plays an important role in species adaptation to climate change. However, it still remains unclear how plants in semi-arid environments respond to increasing aridity. We investigated the intraspecific trait variability of two common Mediterranean annuals (Geropogon hybridus and Crupina crupinastrum) with similar habitat preferences. They were studied along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel similar to the maximum predicted precipitation changes in the eastern Mediterranean basin (i.e. -30% until 2100). We expected a shift from competitive ability to stress tolerance with decreasing precipitation and tested this expectation by measuring key functional traits (canopy and seed release height, specific leaf area, N-and P-leaf content, seed mass). Further, we evaluated generative bet-hedging strategies by different seed traits. Both species showed different responses along the precipitation gradient. C. crupinastrum exhibited only decreased plant height toward saridity, while G. hybridus showed strong trends of generative adaptation to aridity. Different seed trait indices suggest increased bet-hedging of G. hybridus in arid environments. However, no clear trends along the precipitation gradient were observed in leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf N-/P-content) in both species. Moreover, variance decomposition revealed that most of the observed trait variation (>> 50%) is found within populations. The findings of our study suggest that responses to increased aridity are highly species-specific and local environmental factors may have a stronger effect on intraspecific trait variation than shifts in annual precipitation. We therefore argue that trait-based analyses should focus on precipitation gradients that are comparable to predicted precipitation changes and compare precipitation effects to effects of local environmental factors. (C) 2017 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. KW - Climate change KW - Functional ecology KW - Plant height KW - Drought stress KW - Rainfall gradient KW - Trait-environment relationship KW - Local adaptation KW - Phenotypic plasticity Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2017.11.001 SN - 1439-1791 SN - 1618-0089 VL - 25 SP - 48 EP - 58 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Heine, Simon A1 - Mihan, Christine A1 - McGee, Sean A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - A graphical user interface for the plant community model IBC-grass JF - Plos One N2 - Plants located adjacent to agricultural fields are important for maintaining biodiversity in semi-natural landscapes. To avoid undesired impacts on these plants due to herbicide application on the arable fields, regulatory risk assessments are conducted prior to registration to ensure proposed uses of plant protection products do not present an unacceptable risk. The current risk assessment approach for these non-target terrestrial plants (NTTPs) examines impacts at the individual-level as a surrogate approach for protecting the plant community due to the inherent difficulties of directly assessing population or community level impacts. However, modelling approaches are suitable higher tier tools to upscale individual-level effects to community level. IBC-grass is a sophisticated plant community model, which has already been applied in several studies. However, as it is a console application software, it was not deemed sufficiently user-friendly for risk managers and assessors to be conveniently operated without prior expertise in ecological models. Here, we present a user-friendly and open source graphical user interface (GUI) for the application of IBC-grass in regulatory herbicide risk assessment. It facilitates the use of the plant community model for predicting long-term impacts of herbicide applications on NTTP communities. The GUI offers two options to integrate herbicide impacts: (1) dose responses based on current standard experiments (acc. to testing guidelines) and (2) based on specific effect intensities. Both options represent suitable higher tier options for future risk assessments of NTTPs as well as for research on the ecological relevance of effects. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0230012 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 15 IS - 3 PB - Plos 1 CY - San Francisco ER - TY - GEN A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Heine, Simon A1 - Mihan, Christine A1 - McGee, Sean A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Herbicide risk assessments of non-target terrestrial plant communities BT - A graphical user interface for the plant community model IBC-grass T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Plants located adjacent to agricultural fields are important for maintaining biodiversity in semi-natural landscapes. To avoid undesired impacts on these plants due to herbicide application on the arable fields, regulatory risk assessments are conducted prior to registration to ensure proposed uses of plant protection products do not present an unacceptable risk. The current risk assessment approach for these non-target terrestrial plants (NTTPs) examines impacts at the individual-level as a surrogate approach for protecting the plant community due to the inherent difficulties of directly assessing population or community level impacts. However, modelling approaches are suitable higher tier tools to upscale individual-level effects to community level. IBC-grass is a sophisticated plant community model, which has already been applied in several studies. However, as it is a console application software, it was not deemed sufficiently user-friendly for risk managers and assessors to be conveniently operated without prior expertise in ecological models. Here, we present a user-friendly and open source graphical user interface (GUI) for the application of IBC-grass in regulatory herbicide risk assessment. It facilitates the use of the plant community model for predicting long-term impacts of herbicide applications on NTTP communities. The GUI offers two options to integrate herbicide impacts: (1) dose responses based on current standard experiments (acc. to testing guidelines) and (2) based on specific effect intensities. Both options represent suitable higher tier options for future risk assessments of NTTPs as well as for research on the ecological relevance of effects. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 874 Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459997 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 874 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Luft, Laura A1 - Neumann, C. A1 - Itzerott, S. A1 - Lausch, A. A1 - Doktor, D. A1 - Freude, M. A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Digital and real-habitat modeling of Hipparchia statilinus based on hyper spectral remote sensing data JF - International journal of environmental science and technology N2 - The abandonment of military areas leads to succession processes affecting valuable open-land habitats and is considered to be a major threat for European butterflies. We assessed the ability of hyper spectral remote sensing data to spatially predict the occurrence of one of the most endangered butterfly species (Hipparchia statilinus) in Brandenburg (Germany) on the basis of habitat characteristics at a former military training area. Presence-absence data were sampled on a total area of 36 km(2), and N = 65 adult individuals of Hipparchia statilinus could be detected. The floristic composition within the study area was modeled in a three-dimensional ordination space. Occurrence probabilities for the target species were predicted as niches between ordinated floristic gradients by using Regression Kriging of Indicators. Habitat variance could be explained by up to 81 % with spectral variables at a spatial resolution of 2 x 2 m by transferring PLSR models to imagery. Ordinated ecological niche of Hipparchia statilinus was tested against environmental predictor variables. N = 6 variables could be detected to be significantly correlated with habitat preferences of Hipparchia statilinus. They show that Hipparchia statilinus can serve as a valuable indicator for the evaluation of the conservation status of Natura 2000 habitat type 2330 (inland dunes with open Corynephorus and Agrostis grasslands) protected by the Habitat Directive (Council Directive 92/43/EEC). The authors of this approach, conducted in August 2013 at Doberitzer Heide Germany, aim to increase the value of remote sensing as an important tool for questions of biodiversity research and conservation. KW - Habitat gradients KW - Military areas KW - Natura 2000 KW - hyper spectral KW - Vegetation continuum KW - Kriging Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-015-0859-1 SN - 1735-1472 SN - 1735-2630 VL - 13 SP - 187 EP - 200 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fer, Istem A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - High-resolution modelling closes the gap between data and model simulations for Mid-Holocene and present-day biomes of East Africa JF - Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences N2 - East Africa hosts a striking diversity of terrestrial ecosystems, which vary both in space and time due to complex regional topography and a dynamic climate. The structure and functioning of these ecosystems under this environmental setting can be studied with dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) in a spatially explicit way. Yet, regional applications of DVMs to East Africa are rare and a comprehensive validation of such applications is missing. Here, we simulated the present-day and mid-Holocene vegetation of East Africa with the DVM, LPJ-GUESS and we conducted an exhaustive comparison of model outputs with maps of potential modern vegetation distribution, and with pollen records of local change through time. Overall, the model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of East African vegetation. To see whether running the model at higher spatial resolutions (10′ × 10′) contribute to resolve the vegetation distribution better and have a better comparison scale with the observational data (i.e. pollen data), we run the model with coarser spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) for the present-day as well. Both the area- and point-wise comparison showed that a higher spatial resolution allows to better describe spatial vegetation changes induced by the complex topography of East Africa. Our analysis of the difference between modelled mid-Holocene and modern-day vegetation showed that whether a biome shifts to another is best explained by both the amount of change in precipitation it experiences and the amount of precipitation it received originally. We also confirmed that tropical forest biomes were more sensitive to a decrease in precipitation compared to woodland and savanna biomes and that Holocene vegetation changes in East Africa were driven not only by changes in annual precipitation but also by changes in its seasonality. KW - Dynamic vegetation models KW - Biome KW - Mid-Holocene KW - Leaf area index KW - Climate change KW - East Africa Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.001 SN - 0031-0182 SN - 1872-616X VL - 444 SP - 144 EP - 151 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pfestorf, Hans A1 - Körner, Katrin A1 - Sonnemann, Ilja A1 - Wurst, Susanne A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Coupling experimental data with individual-based modelling reveals differential effects of root herbivory on grassland plant co-existence along a resource gradient JF - Journal of vegetation science N2 - QuestionThe empirical evidence of root herbivory effects on plant community composition and co-existence is contradictory. This originates from difficulties connected to below-ground research and confinement of experimental studies to a small range of environmental conditions. Here we suggest coupling experimental data with an individual-based model to overcome the limitations inherent in either approach. To demonstrate this, we investigated the consequences of root herbivory, as experimentally observed on individual plants, on plant competition and co-existence in a population and community context under different root herbivory intensities (RHI), fluctuating and constant root herbivore activity and grazing along a resource gradient. LocationBerlin, Germany, glasshouse; Potsdam, Germany, high performance cluster computer. MethodsThe well-established community model IBC-Grass was adapted to allow for a flexible species parameterization and to include annual species. Experimentally observed root herbivory effects on performance of eight common grassland plant species were incorporated into the model by altering plant growth rates. We then determined root herbivore effects on plant populations, competitive hierarchy and consequences for co-existence and community diversity. ResultsRoot herbivory reduced individual biomass, but temporal fluctuation allowed for compensation of herbivore effects. Reducing resource availability strongly shifted competitive hierarchies, with, however, more similar hierarchies along the gradient under root herbivory, pointing to reduced ecological species differences. Consequently, negative effects on co-existence and diversity prevailed, with the exception of a few positive effects on co-existence of selected species pairs. Temporal fluctuation alleviated but did not remove negative root herbivore effects, despite of the stronger influence of intra- compared to interspecific competition. Grazing in general augmented co-existence. Most interestingly, grazing interacted with RHI and resource availability by promoting positive effects of root herbivory. ConclusionsThrough integrating experimental data on the scale of individual plants with a simulation model we verified that root herbivory could affect plant competition with consequences for species co-existence. Our approach demonstrates the benefit that accrues when empirical and modelling approaches are brought more closely together, and that gathering data on distinct processes and under specific conditions, combined with appropriate models, can be used to answer challenging research questions in a more general way. KW - Above-/below-ground interactions KW - Below-ground resources KW - Competitive hierarchies KW - Grassland KW - Greenhouse experiment KW - Simulation experiment KW - Species co-existence KW - Wireworms Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jvs.12357 SN - 1100-9233 SN - 1654-1103 VL - 27 SP - 269 EP - 282 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scherer, Cedric A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Blaum, Niels T1 - Merging trait-based and individual-based modelling: An animal functional type approach to explore the responses of birds to climatic and land use changes in semi-arid African savannas JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Climate change and land use management practices are major drivers of biodiversity in terrestrial ecosystems. To understand and predict resulting changes in community structures, individual-based and spatially explicit population models are a useful tool but require detailed data sets for each species. More generic approaches are thus needed. Here we present a trait-based functional type approach to model savanna birds. The aim of our model is to explore the response of different bird functional types to modifications in habitat structure. The functional types are characterized by different traits, in particular body mass, which is related to life-history traits (reproduction and mortality) and spatial scales (home range area and dispersal ability), as well as the use of vegetation structures for foraging and nesting, which is related to habitat quality and suitability. We tested the performance of the functional types in artificial landscapes varying in shrub:grass ratio and clumping intensity of shrub patches. We found that an increase in shrub encroachment and a decrease in habitat quality caused by land use mismanagement and climate change endangered all simulated bird functional types. The strength of this effect was related to the preferred habitat. Furthermore, larger-bodied insectivores and omnivores were more prone to extinction due to shrub encroachment compared to small-bodied species. Insectivorous and omnivorous birds were more sensitive to clumping intensity of shrubs whereas herbivorous and carnivorous birds were most affected by a decreasing amount of grass cover. From an applied point of view, our findings emphasize that policies such as woody plant removal and a reduction in livestock stocking rates to prevent shrub encroachment should prioritize the enlargement of existing grassland patches. Overall, our results show that the combination of an individual-based modelling approach with carefully defined functional types can provide a powerful tool for exploring biodiversity responses to environmental changes. Furthermore, the increasing accumulation of worldwide data sets on species’ core and soft traits (surrogates to determine core traits indirectly) on one side and the refinement of conceptual frameworks for animal functional types on the other side will further improve functional type approaches which consider the sensitivities of multiple species to climate change, habitat loss, and fragmentation. KW - IBM KW - Functional types KW - Trait-based approach KW - Shrub encroachment KW - Birds Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.005 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 326 SP - 75 EP - 89 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Turjeman, Sondra Feldman A1 - Centeno-Cuadros, Alejandro A1 - Eggers, Ute A1 - Rotics, Shay A1 - Blas, Julio A1 - Fiedler, Wolfgang A1 - Kaatz, Michael A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wikelski, Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran T1 - Extra-pair paternity in the socially monogamous white stork (Ciconia ciconia) is fairly common and independent of local density JF - Scientific reports N2 - Although many birds are socially monogamous, most (>75%) studied species are not strictly genetically monogamous, especially under high breeding density. We used molecular tools to reevaluate the reproductive strategy of the socially monogamous white stork (Ciconia ciconia) and examined local density effects. DNA samples of nestlings (Germany, Spain) were genotyped and assigned relationships using a two-program maximum likelihood classification. Relationships were successfully classified in 79.2% of German (n = 120) and 84.8% of Spanish (n = 59) nests. For each population respectively, 76.8% (n = 73) and 66.0% (n = 33) of nests contained only full-siblings, 10.5% (n = 10) and 18.0% (n = 9) had half-siblings (at least one nestling with a different parent), 3.2% (n = 3) and 10.0% (n = 5) had unrelated nestlings (at least two nestlings, each with different parents), and 9.5% (n = 9) and 6.0% (n = 3) had “not full-siblings” (could not differentiate between latter two cases). These deviations from strict monogamy place the white stork in the 59th percentile for extra-pair paternity among studied bird species. Although high breeding density generally increases extra-pair paternity, we found no significant association with this species’ mating strategies. Thus although genetic monogamy is indeed prominent in the white stork, extra-pair paternity is fairly common compared to other bird species and cannot be explained by breeding density. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/srep27976 SN - 2045-2322 VL - 6 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rotics, Shay A1 - Kaatz, Michael A1 - Resheff, Yehezkel S. A1 - Turjeman, Sondra Feldman A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Sapir, Nir A1 - Eggers, Ute A1 - Flack, Andrea A1 - Fiedler, Wolfgang A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wikelski, Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran T1 - The challenges of the first migration: movement and behaviour of juvenile vs. adult white storks with insights regarding juvenile mortality JF - Journal of animal ecology : a journal of the British Ecological Society N2 - 1. Migration conveys an immense challenge, especially for juvenile birds coping with enduring and risky journeys shortly after fledging. Accordingly, juveniles exhibit considerably lower survival rates compared to adults, particularly during migration. Juvenile white storks (Ciconia ciconia), which are known to rely on adults during their first fall migration presumably for navigational purposes, also display much lower annual survival than adults. 2. Using detailed GPS and body acceleration data, we examined the patterns and potential causes of age-related differences in fall migration properties of white storks by comparing first-year juveniles and adults. We compared juvenile and adult parameters of movement, behaviour and energy expenditure (estimated from overall dynamic body acceleration) and placed this in the context of the juveniles’ lower survival rate. 3. Juveniles used flapping flight vs. soaring flight 23% more than adults and were estimated to expend 14% more energy during flight. Juveniles did not compensate for their higher flight costs by increased refuelling or resting during migration. When juveniles and adults migrated together in the same flock, the juvenile flew mostly behind the adult and was left behind when they separated. Juveniles showed greater improvement in flight efficiency throughout migration compared to adults which appears crucial because juveniles exhibiting higher flight costs suffered increased mortality. 4. Our findings demonstrate the conflict between the juveniles’ inferior flight skills and their urge to keep up with mixed adult–juvenile flocks. We suggest that increased flight costs are an important proximate cause of juvenile mortality in white storks and likely in other soaring migrants and that natural selection is operating on juvenile variation in flight efficiency. KW - flight KW - flight efficiency KW - juvenile mortality KW - migration KW - white stork Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12525 SN - 0021-8790 SN - 1365-2656 VL - 85 SP - 938 EP - 947 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kruse, Stefan A1 - Wieczorek, Mareike A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog KW - Forest change KW - IBM KW - ODD model description KW - Larix gmelinii KW - Permafrost ecosystem KW - Time-lag effects Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 338 SP - 101 EP - 121 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Romero-Mujalli, Daniel A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph T1 - Elevated mutation rates are unlikely to evolve in sexual species, not even under rapid environmental change T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background Organisms are expected to respond to changing environmental conditions through local adaptation, range shift or local extinction. The process of local adaptation can occur by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity, and becomes especially relevant when dispersal abilities or possibilities are somehow constrained. For genetic changes to occur, mutations are the ultimate source of variation and the mutation rate in terms of a mutator locus can be subject to evolutionary change. Recent findings suggest that the evolution of the mutation rate in a sexual species can advance invasion speed and promote adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Following this idea, this work uses an individual-based model approach to investigate if the mutation rate can also evolve in a sexual species experiencing different conditions of directional climate change, under different scenarios of colored stochastic environmental noise, probability of recombination and of beneficial mutations. The color of the noise mimicked investigating the evolutionary dynamics of the mutation rate in different habitats. Results The results suggest that the mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change scenarios can evolve and reach relatively high values mainly under conditions of complete linkage of the mutator locus and the adaptation locus. In contrast, when they are unlinked, the mutation rate can slightly increase only under scenarios where at least 50% of arising mutations are beneficial and the rate of environmental change is relatively fast. This result is robust under different scenarios of stochastic environmental noise, which supports the observation of no systematic variation in the mutation rate among organisms experiencing different habitats. Conclusions Given that 50% beneficial mutations may be an unrealistic assumption, and that recombination is ubiquitous in sexual species, the evolution of an elevated mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change might be rather unlikely. Furthermore, when the percentage of beneficial mutations and the population size are small, sexual species (especially multicellular ones) producing few offspring may be expected to react to changing environments not by adaptive genetic change, but mainly through plasticity. Without the ability for a plastic response, such species may become – at least locally – extinct. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 776 KW - Individual-based models KW - sexual species KW - Beneficial mutations KW - Mutation rate KW - Mutator locus KW - Directional climate change KW - Recombination Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-439058 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 776 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Romero-Mujalli, Daniel A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph T1 - Elevated mutation rates are unlikely to evolve in sexual species, not even under rapid environmental change JF - BMC Evolutionary Biology N2 - Background Organisms are expected to respond to changing environmental conditions through local adaptation, range shift or local extinction. The process of local adaptation can occur by genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity, and becomes especially relevant when dispersal abilities or possibilities are somehow constrained. For genetic changes to occur, mutations are the ultimate source of variation and the mutation rate in terms of a mutator locus can be subject to evolutionary change. Recent findings suggest that the evolution of the mutation rate in a sexual species can advance invasion speed and promote adaptation to novel environmental conditions. Following this idea, this work uses an individual-based model approach to investigate if the mutation rate can also evolve in a sexual species experiencing different conditions of directional climate change, under different scenarios of colored stochastic environmental noise, probability of recombination and of beneficial mutations. The color of the noise mimicked investigating the evolutionary dynamics of the mutation rate in different habitats. Results The results suggest that the mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change scenarios can evolve and reach relatively high values mainly under conditions of complete linkage of the mutator locus and the adaptation locus. In contrast, when they are unlinked, the mutation rate can slightly increase only under scenarios where at least 50% of arising mutations are beneficial and the rate of environmental change is relatively fast. This result is robust under different scenarios of stochastic environmental noise, which supports the observation of no systematic variation in the mutation rate among organisms experiencing different habitats. Conclusions Given that 50% beneficial mutations may be an unrealistic assumption, and that recombination is ubiquitous in sexual species, the evolution of an elevated mutation rate in a sexual species experiencing directional climate change might be rather unlikely. Furthermore, when the percentage of beneficial mutations and the population size are small, sexual species (especially multicellular ones) producing few offspring may be expected to react to changing environments not by adaptive genetic change, but mainly through plasticity. Without the ability for a plastic response, such species may become – at least locally – extinct. KW - Individual-based models KW - sexual species KW - Beneficial mutations KW - Recombination KW - Directional climate change KW - Mutator locus KW - Mutation rate Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12862-019-1494-0 SN - 1471-2148 VL - 19 PB - BioMed Central CY - London ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Schlägel, Ulrike E. T1 - Give chance a chance BT - from coexistence to coviability in biodiversity theory T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - A large part of biodiversity theory is driven by the basic question of what allows species to coexist in spite of a confined number of niches. A substantial theoretical background to this question is provided by modern coexistence theory (MCT), which rests on mathematical approaches of invasion analysis to categorize underlying mechanisms into factors that reduce either niche overlap (stabilizing mechanisms) or the average fitness differences of species (equalizing mechanisms). While MCT has inspired biodiversity theory in the search for these underlying mechanisms, we feel that the strong focus on coexistence causes a bias toward the most abundant species and neglects the plethora of species that are less abundant and often show high local turnover. Given the more stochastic nature of their occurrence, we advocate a complementary cross-level approach that links individuals, small populations, and communities and explicitly takes into account (1) a more complete inclusion of environmental and demographic stochasticity affecting small populations, (2) intraspecific trait variation and behavioral plasticity, and (3) local heterogeneities, interactions, and feedbacks. Focusing on mechanisms that drive the temporary coviability of species rather than infinite coexistence, we suggest a new approach that could be dubbed coviability analysis (CVA). From a modeling perspective, CVA builds on the merged approaches of individual-based modeling and population viability analysis but extends them to the community level. From an empirical viewpoint, CVA calls for a stronger integration of spatiotemporal data on variability and noise, changing drivers, and interactions at the level of individuals. The resulting large volumes of data from multiple sources could be strongly supported by novel techniques tailored to the discovery of complex patterns in high-dimensional data. By complementing MCT through a stronger focus on the coviability of less common species, this approach can help make modern biodiversity theory more comprehensive, predictive, and relevant for applications. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 742 KW - behavioral plasticity KW - biodiversity KW - coexistence KW - community theory KW - coviability analysis KW - demographic noise KW - environmental noise KW - heterogeneity KW - individual-based modeling KW - intraspecific trait variation KW - modern coexistence theory KW - population viability analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-435320 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 742 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Schlägel, Ulrike E. T1 - Give chance a chance BT - from coexistence to coviability in biodiversity theory JF - Ecosphere N2 - A large part of biodiversity theory is driven by the basic question of what allows species to coexist in spite of a confined number of niches. A substantial theoretical background to this question is provided by modern coexistence theory (MCT), which rests on mathematical approaches of invasion analysis to categorize underlying mechanisms into factors that reduce either niche overlap (stabilizing mechanisms) or the average fitness differences of species (equalizing mechanisms). While MCT has inspired biodiversity theory in the search for these underlying mechanisms, we feel that the strong focus on coexistence causes a bias toward the most abundant species and neglects the plethora of species that are less abundant and often show high local turnover. Given the more stochastic nature of their occurrence, we advocate a complementary cross-level approach that links individuals, small populations, and communities and explicitly takes into account (1) a more complete inclusion of environmental and demographic stochasticity affecting small populations, (2) intraspecific trait variation and behavioral plasticity, and (3) local heterogeneities, interactions, and feedbacks. Focusing on mechanisms that drive the temporary coviability of species rather than infinite coexistence, we suggest a new approach that could be dubbed coviability analysis (CVA). From a modeling perspective, CVA builds on the merged approaches of individual-based modeling and population viability analysis but extends them to the community level. From an empirical viewpoint, CVA calls for a stronger integration of spatiotemporal data on variability and noise, changing drivers, and interactions at the level of individuals. The resulting large volumes of data from multiple sources could be strongly supported by novel techniques tailored to the discovery of complex patterns in high-dimensional data. By complementing MCT through a stronger focus on the coviability of less common species, this approach can help make modern biodiversity theory more comprehensive, predictive, and relevant for applications. KW - behavioral plasticity KW - biodiversity KW - coexistence KW - community theory KW - coviability analysis KW - demographic noise KW - environmental noise KW - heterogeneity KW - individual-based modeling KW - intraspecific trait variation KW - modern coexistence theory KW - population viability analysis Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2700 SN - 2150-8925 VL - 10 IS - 5 PB - ESA CY - Ithaca, NY ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sonnemann, Ilja A1 - Pfestorf, Hans A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wurst, Susanne T1 - Community- weighted mean plant traits predict small scale distribution of insect root herbivore abundance T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Small scale distribution of insect root herbivores may promote plant species diversity by creating patches of different herbivore pressure. However, determinants of small scale distribution of insect root herbivores, and impact of land use intensity on their small scale distribution are largely unknown. We sampled insect root herbivores and measured vegetation parameters and soil water content along transects in grasslands of different management intensity in three regions in Germany. We calculated community-weighted mean plant traits to test whether the functional plant community composition determines the small scale distribution of insect root herbivores. To analyze spatial patterns in plant species and trait composition and insect root herbivore abundance we computed Mantel correlograms. Insect root herbivores mainly comprised click beetle (Coleoptera, Elateridae) larvae (43%) in the investigated grasslands. Total insect root herbivore numbers were positively related to community-weighted mean traits indicating high plant growth rates and biomass (specific leaf area, reproductive-and vegetative plant height), and negatively related to plant traits indicating poor tissue quality (leaf C/N ratio). Generalist Elaterid larvae, when analyzed independently, were also positively related to high plant growth rates and furthermore to root dry mass, but were not related to tissue quality. Insect root herbivore numbers were not related to plant cover, plant species richness and soil water content. Plant species composition and to a lesser extent plant trait composition displayed spatial autocorrelation, which was not influenced by land use intensity. Insect root herbivore abundance was not spatially autocorrelated. We conclude that in semi-natural grasslands with a high share of generalist insect root herbivores, insect root herbivores affiliate with large, fast growing plants, presumably because of availability of high quantities of food. Affiliation of insect root herbivores with large, fast growing plants may counteract dominance of those species, thus promoting plant diversity. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 494 KW - Diabrotica Virgifera Virgifera KW - land-use intensity KW - functional traits KW - wireworms coloptera KW - spatial-distribution KW - Agriotes Ustulatus KW - population-dynamics KW - grassland diversity KW - european flora KW - arable land Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408161 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 494 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Heine, Simon A1 - Mihan, Christine A1 - McGee, Sean A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Simulation of herbicide impacts on a plant community BT - comparing model predictions of the plant community model IBC-grass to empirical data T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level. Results We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data. Conclusion The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments—measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level—can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 528 KW - Plant community model KW - Non-target terrestrial plants KW - Community-level effects KW - Herbicide risk assessment KW - Individual-based modeling Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423039 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 528 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Heine, Simon A1 - Mihan, Christine A1 - McGee, Sean A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Simulation of herbicide impacts on a plant community BT - comparing model predictions of the plant community model IBC-grass to empirical data JF - Environmental Sciences Europe N2 - Background Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level. Results We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data. Conclusion The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments—measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level—can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment. KW - Plant community model KW - Non-target terrestrial plants KW - Community-level effects KW - Herbicide risk assessment KW - Individual-based modeling Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-018-0174-9 SN - 2190-4715 SN - 2190-4707 VL - 30 IS - 44 PB - Springer CY - Berlin und Heidelberg ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Bonte, Dries A1 - Pe'er, Guy A1 - Reineking, Björn A1 - Leimgruber, Peter A1 - Balkenhol, Niko A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris A1 - Buchmann, Carsten M. A1 - Müller, Thomas A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Böhning-Gaese, Katrin A1 - Wiegand, Thorsten A1 - Eccard, Jana A1 - Hofer, Heribert A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Eggers, Ute A1 - Bauer, Silke T1 - Integrating movement ecology with biodiversity research BT - exploring new avenues to address spatiotemporal biodiversity dynamics N2 - Movement of organisms is one of the key mechanisms shaping biodiversity, e.g. the distribution of genes, individuals and species in space and time. Recent technological and conceptual advances have improved our ability to assess the causes and consequences of individual movement, and led to the emergence of the new field of ‘movement ecology’. Here, we outline how movement ecology can contribute to the broad field of biodiversity research, i.e. the study of processes and patterns of life among and across different scales, from genes to ecosystems, and we propose a conceptual framework linking these hitherto largely separated fields of research. Our framework builds on the concept of movement ecology for individuals, and demonstrates its importance for linking individual organismal movement with biodiversity. First, organismal movements can provide ‘mobile links’ between habitats or ecosystems, thereby connecting resources, genes, and processes among otherwise separate locations. Understanding these mobile links and their impact on biodiversity will be facilitated by movement ecology, because mobile links can be created by different modes of movement (i.e., foraging, dispersal, migration) that relate to different spatiotemporal scales and have differential effects on biodiversity. Second, organismal movements can also mediate coexistence in communities, through ‘equalizing’ and ‘stabilizing’ mechanisms. This novel integrated framework provides a conceptual starting point for a better understanding of biodiversity dynamics in light of individual movement and space-use behavior across spatiotemporal scales. By illustrating this framework with examples, we argue that the integration of movement ecology and biodiversity research will also enhance our ability to conserve diversity at the genetic, species, and ecosystem levels. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 401 KW - mobile links KW - species coexistence KW - community dynamics KW - biodiversity conservation KW - long distance movement KW - landscape genetics KW - individual based modeling Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-401177 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Fer, Istem A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wolff, Christian Michael T1 - The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario N2 - The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 394 Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-403853 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fer, Istem A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wolff, Christian Michael T1 - The influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario JF - Biogeosciences N2 - The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main driver of the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall, with a significant impact on vegetation and agriculture and dire consequences for food and social security. In this study, we identify and quantify the ENSO contribution to the eastern African rainfall variability to forecast future eastern African vegetation response to rainfall variability related to a predicted intensified ENSO. To differentiate the vegetation variability due to ENSO, we removed the ENSO signal from the climate data using empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis. Then, we simulated the ecosystem carbon and water fluxes under the historical climate without components related to ENSO teleconnections. We found ENSO-driven patterns in vegetation response and confirmed that EOT analysis can successfully produce coupled tropical Pacific sea surface temperature-eastern African rainfall teleconnection from observed datasets. We further simulated eastern African vegetation response under future climate change as it is projected by climate models and under future climate change combined with a predicted increased ENSO intensity. Our EOT analysis highlights that climate simulations are still not good at capturing rainfall variability due to ENSO, and as we show here the future vegetation would be different from what is simulated under these climate model outputs lacking accurate ENSO contribution. We simulated considerable differences in eastern African vegetation growth under the influence of an intensified ENSO regime which will bring further environmental stress to a region with a reduced capacity to adapt effects of global climate change and food security. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017 SN - 1726-4170 SN - 1726-4189 VL - 14 IS - 18 SP - 4355 EP - 4374 PB - Copernicus CY - Katlenburg-Lindau ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sieck, Mungla A1 - Ibisch, Pierre L. A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Current models broadly neglect specific needs of biodiversity conservation in protected areas under climate change N2 - Background Protected areas are the most common and important instrument for the conservation of biological diversity and are called for under the United Nations' Convention on Biological Diversity. Growing human population densities, intensified land-use, invasive species and increasing habitat fragmentation threaten ecosystems worldwide and protected areas are often the only refuge for endangered species. Climate change is posing an additional threat that may also impact ecosystems currently under protection. Therefore, it is of crucial importance to include the potential impact of climate change when designing future nature conservation strategies and implementing protected area management. This approach would go beyond reactive crisis management and, by necessity, would include anticipatory risk assessments. One avenue for doing so is being provided by simulation models that take advantage of the increase in computing capacity and performance that has occurred over the last two decades. Here we review the literature to determine the state-of-the-art in modeling terrestrial protected areas under climate change, with the aim of evaluating and detecting trends and gaps in the current approaches being employed, as well as to provide a useful overview and guidelines for future research. Results Most studies apply statistical, bioclimatic envelope models and focus primarily on plant species as compared to other taxa. Very few studies utilize a mechanistic, process-based approach and none examine biotic interactions like predation and competition. Important factors like land-use, habitat fragmentation, invasion and dispersal are rarely incorporated, restricting the informative value of the resulting predictions considerably. Conclusion The general impression that emerges is that biodiversity conservation in protected areas could benefit from the application of modern modeling approaches to a greater extent than is currently reflected in the scientific literature. It is particularly true that existing models have been underutilized in testing different management options under climate change. Based on these findings we suggest a strategic framework for more effectively incorporating the impact of climate change in models exploring the effectiveness of protected areas. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 368 Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400894 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geyer, Juliane A1 - Strixner, Lena A1 - Kreft, Stefan A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ibisch, Pierre L. T1 - Adapting conservation to climate change: a case study on feasibility and implementation in Brandenburg, Germany JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Conservation actions need to account for global climate change and adapt to it. The body of the literature on adaptation options is growing rapidly, but their feasibility and current state of implementation are rarely assessed. We discussed the practicability of adaptation options with conservation managers analysing three fields of action: reducing the vulnerability of conservation management, reducing the vulnerability of conservation targets (i.e. biodiversity) and climate change mitigation. For all options, feasibility, current state of implementation and existing obstacles to implementation were analysed, using the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, as a case study. Practitioners considered a large number of options useful, most of which have already been implemented at least in part. Those options considered broadly implemented resemble mainly conventional measures of conservation without direct relation to climate change. Managers are facing several obstacles for adapting to climate change, including political reluctance to change, financial and staff shortages in conservation administrations and conflictive EU funding schemes in agriculture. A certain reluctance to act, due to the high degree of uncertainty with regard to climate change scenarios and impacts, is widespread. A lack of knowledge of appropriate methods such as adaptive management often inhibits the implementation of adaptation options in the field of planning and management. Based on the findings for Brandenburg, we generally conclude that it is necessary to focus in particular on options that help to reduce vulnerability of conservation management itself, i.e. those that enhance management effectiveness. For instance, adaptive and proactive risk management can be applied as a no-regrets option, independently from specific climate change scenarios or impacts, strengthening action under uncertainty. KW - Climate change KW - Adaptation options KW - Nature conservation management KW - Vulnerability Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0609-9 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 15 IS - 1 SP - 139 EP - 153 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zurell, Damaris A1 - Eggers, Ute A1 - Kaatz, Michael A1 - Rotics, Shay A1 - Sapir, Nir A1 - Wikelski, Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Individual-based modelling of resource competition to predict density-dependent population dynamics: a case study with white storks JF - Oikos N2 - Density regulation influences population dynamics through its effects on demographic rates and consequently constitutes a key mechanism explaining the response of organisms to environmental changes. Yet, it is difficult to establish the exact form of density dependence from empirical data. Here, we developed an individual-based model to explore how resource limitation and behavioural processes determine the spatial structure of white stork Ciconia ciconia populations and regulate reproductive rates. We found that the form of density dependence differed considerably between landscapes with the same overall resource availability and between home range selection strategies, highlighting the importance of fine-scale resource distribution in interaction with behaviour. In accordance with theories of density dependence, breeding output generally decreased with density but this effect was highly variable and strongly affected by optimal foraging strategy, resource detection probability and colonial behaviour. Moreover, our results uncovered an overlooked consequence of density dependence by showing that high early nestling mortality in storks, assumed to be the outcome of harsh weather, may actually result from density dependent effects on food provision. Our findings emphasize that accounting for interactive effects of individual behaviour and local environmental factors is crucial for understanding density-dependent processes within spatially structured populations. Enhanced understanding of the ways animal populations are regulated in general, and how habitat conditions and behaviour may dictate spatial population structure and demographic rates is critically needed for predicting the dynamics of populations, communities and ecosystems under changing environmental conditions. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01294 SN - 0030-1299 SN - 1600-0706 VL - 124 IS - 3 SP - 319 EP - 330 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weiß, Lina A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - The response of simulated grassland communities to the cessation of grazing JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Changes in land-use are supposed to be among the severest prospective threats to plant diversity worldwide. In semi-natural temperate grasslands, the cessation of traditional land use like livestock grazing is considered to be one of the most important drivers of the diversity loss witnessed within the last decades. Despite of the enormous number of studies on successional pathways following grazing abandonment there is no general pattern of how grassland communities are affected in terms of diversity, trait composition and pace of succession. To gain a comprehensive picture is difficult given the heterogeneity of environments and the time and effort needed for long-term investigations. We here use a proven individual- and trait-based grassland community model to analyze short- and long-term consequences of grazing abandonment under different assumptions of resource availability, pre-abandonment grazing intensity and regional isolation of communities. Grazing abandonment led to a decrease of plant functional type (PFT) diversity in all but two scenarios in the long-term. In short-term we also found an increase or no change in Shannon diversity for several scenarios. With grazing abandonment we overall found an increase in maximum plant mass, clonal integration and longer lateral spread, a decrease in rosette plant types and in stress tolerant plants, as well as an increase in grazing tolerant and a decrease in grazing avoiding plant types. Observed changes were highly dependent on the regional configuration of communities, prevalent resource conditions and land use intensity before abandonment. While long-term changes took around 10-20 years in resource rich conditions, new equilibria established in resource poor conditions only after 30-40 years. Our results confirm the potential threats caused by recent land-use changes and the assumption that oligotrophic communities are more resistant than mesotrophic communities also for long-term abandonment. Moreover, results revealed that species-rich systems are not per se more resistant than species-poor grasslands. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Diversity KW - Individual-based model KW - Land use intensity KW - Seed immigration KW - Abandonment KW - Resistance Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.002 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 303 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Synodinos, Alexios D. A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Facilitation in drylands: Modeling a neglected driver of savanna dynamics JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Our current understanding regarding the functioning of the savanna ecosystem describes savannas as either competition- or disturbance-dependent. Within this generalized view, the role and importance of facilitation have been mostly neglected. This study presents a mathematical model of savannas with coupled soil moisture-vegetation dynamics, which includes interspecific competition and environmental disturbance. We find that there exist environmental and climatic conditions where grass facilitation toward trees plays an important role in supporting tree cover and by extension preserving the savanna biome. We, therefore, argue that our theoretical results in combination with the first empirical studies on the subject should stimulate further research into the role of facilitation in the savanna ecosystem, particularly when analyzing the impact of past and projected climatic changes on it. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Ecohydrological modeling KW - ODE model KW - Coexistence KW - Biome shifts KW - Fire KW - Grazing Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.015 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 304 SP - 11 EP - 21 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sonnemann, Ilja A1 - Pfestorf, Hans A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wurst, Susanne T1 - Community-Weighted Mean Plant Traits Predict Small Scale Distribution of Insect Root Herbivore Abundance JF - PLoS one N2 - Small scale distribution of insect root herbivores may promote plant species diversity by creating patches of different herbivore pressure. However, determinants of small scale distribution of insect root herbivores, and impact of land use intensity on their small scale distribution are largely unknown. We sampled insect root herbivores and measured vegetation parameters and soil water content along transects in grasslands of different management intensity in three regions in Germany. We calculated community-weighted mean plant traits to test whether the functional plant community composition determines the small scale distribution of insect root herbivores. To analyze spatial patterns in plant species and trait composition and insect root herbivore abundance we computed Mantel correlograms. Insect root herbivores mainly comprised click beetle (Coleoptera, Elateridae) larvae (43%) in the investigated grasslands. Total insect root herbivore numbers were positively related to community-weighted mean traits indicating high plant growth rates and biomass (specific leaf area, reproductive-and vegetative plant height), and negatively related to plant traits indicating poor tissue quality (leaf C/N ratio). Generalist Elaterid larvae, when analyzed independently, were also positively related to high plant growth rates and furthermore to root dry mass, but were not related to tissue quality. Insect root herbivore numbers were not related to plant cover, plant species richness and soil water content. Plant species composition and to a lesser extent plant trait composition displayed spatial autocorrelation, which was not influenced by land use intensity. Insect root herbivore abundance was not spatially autocorrelated. We conclude that in semi-natural grasslands with a high share of generalist insect root herbivores, insect root herbivores affiliate with large, fast growing plants, presumably because of availability of high quantities of food. Affiliation of insect root herbivores with large, fast growing plants may counteract dominance of those species, thus promoting plant diversity. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0141148 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 10 IS - 10 PB - PLoS CY - San Fransisco ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bergholz, Kolja A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Weiß, Lina A1 - Pottek, Janine A1 - Geißler, Katja A1 - Ristow, Michael T1 - Fertilization affects the establishment ability of species differing in seed mass via direct nutrient addition and indirect competition effects JF - Oikos N2 - Fertilization causes species loss and species dominance changes in plant communities worldwide. However, it still remains unclear how fertilization acts upon species functional traits, e.g. seed mass. Seed mass is a key trait of the regeneration strategy of plants, which influences a range of processes during the seedling establishment phase. Fertilization may select upon seed mass, either directly by increased nutrient availability or indirectly by increased competition. Since previous research has mainly analyzed the indirect effects of fertilization, we disentangled the direct and indirect effects to examine how nutrient availability and competition influence the seed mass relationships on four key components during seedling establishment: seedling emergence, time of seedling emergence, seedling survival and seedling growth. We conducted a common garden experiment with 22 dry grassland species with a two-way full factorial design that simulated additional nutrient supply and increased competition. While we found no evidence that fertilization either directly by additional nutrient supply or indirectly by increased competition alters the relationship between seed mass and (time of) seedling emergence, we revealed that large seed mass is beneficial under nutrient-poor conditions (seedlings have greater chances of survival, particularly in nutrient-poor soils) as well as under competition (large-seeded species produced larger seedlings, which suffered less from competition than small-seeded species). Based on these findings, we argue that both factors, i.e. nutrient availability and competition intensity, ought to be considered to understand how fertilization influences seedling establishment and species composition with respect to seed mass in natural communities. We propose a simple conceptual model, in which seed mass in natural communities is determined by competition intensity and nutrient availability. Here, we hypothesize that seed mass shows a U-shaped pattern along gradients of soil fertility, which may explain the contrasting soil fertility-seed mass relationships found in the recent literature. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.02193 SN - 0030-1299 SN - 1600-0706 VL - 124 IS - 11 SP - 1547 EP - 1554 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lohmann, Dirk A1 - Falk, Thomas A1 - Geissler, Katja A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Determinants of semi-arid rangeland management in a land reform setting in Namibia JF - Journal of arid environments N2 - To assess the ecological and economic implications of the redistributive land reform in semi-arid Namibia, we investigated to what extent land reform beneficiaries adjust herd size and herd composition according to environmental (rainfall, vegetation) and economic variables (herd size, financial assets, running costs). We performed model-based role-plays with Namibian land reform beneficiaries, simulating 10 years of rangeland management. Our study revealed that the farmers surveyed mainly manage their herds according to their economic situation (herd size and account balance) but do not take environmental variability (rainfall and vegetation) into account. Further, our results indicate that, due to financial pressure, farmers are not able to apply their desired management strategies, and that owners of small farms face a higher risk of economic failure. However, farmers apply rather conservative and constant stocking rates and will thus, given the current economic limitations, likely not contribute to semi-arid savanna degradation. We conclude that land reform beneficiaries need support to be able to apply straightforward and efficient management strategies. This could be achieved by facilitating cooperation between small farming businesses and by supporting initial investment in productive cattle herds at the time of redistribution of the land. KW - Dry land degradation KW - Semi-arid savanna KW - Land reform KW - Rangeland management KW - Simulation model KW - Role-play Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2013.10.005 SN - 0140-1963 SN - 1095-922X VL - 100 SP - 23 EP - 30 PB - Elsevier CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Koerner, Katrin A1 - Pfestorf, Hans A1 - May, Felix A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Modelling the effect of belowground herbivory on grassland diversity JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - One challenging question in ecology is to explain species coexistence in highly diverse temperate grassland plant communities. Within this context, a clear understanding of the consequences of belowground herbivory for the composition and the diversity of plant communities continue to elude ecologists. The existing body of empirical evidence reveals partly contradictory responses ranging from negative to neutral or positive effects of belowground herbivory on grassland diversity. To reveal possible mechanistic grounds for these discrepancies, we extended an existing simulation model of grassland communities based on plant functional types to include root herbivory. This enabled us to test the effects of different feeding modes that represent different herbivore guilds. For each belowground feeding mode, we systematically varied the intensity and frequency of herbivory events for three different levels of soil fertility both in the presence and absence of additional aboveground grazing. Our modelling approach successfully reproduced various empirically reported diversity responses, merely on the basis of the different feeding modes. Different levels of plant resource availability affected the strength, but not the direction of the belowground herbivory effects. The only exception was the scenario with low resource levels, which promoted neutral (neither positive nor negative) diversity responses for some of the feeding modes. Interestingly, aboveground biomass production was largely unaffected by diversity changes induced by belowground herbivory except in the case of selective feeding modes that were related to specific functional traits. Our findings provide possible explanations for the broad spectrum of belowground herbivory effects on plant community diversity. Furthermore, the presented theoretical modelling approach provides a suitable conceptual framework to better understand the complex linkage between plant community and belowground herbivory dynamics. KW - Belowground herbivory KW - Individual based simulation model KW - Plant functional types KW - Species coexistence KW - IBC-grass model KW - ODD protocol Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.10.025 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 273 SP - 79 EP - 85 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weiss, Lina A1 - Pfestorf, Hans A1 - May, Felix A1 - Körner, Katrin A1 - Boch, Steffen A1 - Fischer, Markus A1 - Müller, Jörg A1 - Prati, Daniel A1 - Socher, Stephanie A. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Grazing response patterns indicate isolation of semi-natural European grasslands JF - Oikos N2 - Identifying drivers of species diversity is a major challenge in understanding and predicting the dynamics of species-rich semi-natural grasslands. In particular in temperate grasslands changes in land use and its consequences, i.e. increasing fragmentation, the on-going loss of habitat and the declining importance of regional processes such as seed dispersal by livestock, are considered key drivers of the diversity loss witnessed within the last decades. Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2013.00957.x SN - 0030-1299 SN - 1600-0706 VL - 123 IS - 5 SP - 599 EP - 612 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Giladi, Itamar A1 - May, Felix A1 - Ristow, Michael A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ziv, Yaron T1 - Scale-dependent species-area and species-isolation relationships: a review and a test study from a fragmented semi-arid agro-ecosystem JF - Journal of biogeography N2 - Aim Patterns that relate species richness with fragment area (the species-area relationship, SAR) and with isolation (the species-isolation relationship, SIR) are well documented. However, those that relate species density - the number of species within a standardized area - with fragment area (D-SAR) or isolation (D-SIR) have not been sufficiently explored, despite the potential for such an analysis to disentangle the underlying mechanisms of SARs and SIRs. Previous spatial theory predicts that a significant D-SAR or D-SIR is unlikely to emerge in taxa with high dispersal limitation, such as plants. Furthermore, a recent model predicts that the detection and the significance of D-SARs or D-SIRs may decrease with grain size. We combined a literature review with grain size-dependent sampling in a fragmented landscape to evaluate the prevalence and grain size-dependent nature of D-SARs and D-SIRs in plants. Location Worldwide (review) and a semi-arid agro-ecosystem in Israel (case study). Methods We combined an extensive literature review of 31 D-SAR studies of plants in fragmented landscapes with an empirical study in which we analysed grain size-dependent D-SARs and D-SIRs using a grain size-dependent hierarchical sampling of species density and species richness in a fragmented, semi-arid agro-ecosystem. Results We found that significantly increasing D-SARs are rare in plant studies. Furthermore, we found that the detection of a significant D-SAR is often possible only after the data have been stratified by species, habitat or landscape characteristics. The results from our case study indicated that the significance and the slopes of both D-SARs and D-SIRs increase as grain size decreases. Main conclusions These results call for a careful consideration of scale while analysing and interpreting the responses of species richness and species density to fragmentation. Our results suggest that grain size-dependent analyses of D-SARs and D-SIRs may help to disentangle the mechanisms that generate SARs and SIRs and may enable early detection of the effects of fragmentation on plant biodiversity. KW - species density KW - isolation KW - scale-dependence KW - habitat fragmentation KW - extinction debt KW - Conservation biogeography KW - species-area relationship KW - island ecology KW - habitat islands KW - island biogeography theory Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12299 SN - 0305-0270 SN - 1365-2699 VL - 41 IS - 6 SP - 1055 EP - 1069 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lohmann, Dirk A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Joubert, David Francois A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Prescribed fire as a tool for managing shrub encroachment in semi-arid savanna rangelands JF - Journal of arid environments N2 - Savanna rangelands worldwide are threatened by shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase of woody plant species at the cost of perennial grasses, causing a strong decline in the productivity of domestic livestock production. Although recent studies indicate that fire might be of great importance for semi-arid and arid savanna dynamics, it is largely not applied in the management of semi-arid rangelands especially with regard to woody plant control. We used the eco-hydrological savanna model EcoHyD to simulate the effects of different fire management strategies on semi-arid savanna vegetation and to assess their longterm suitability for semi-arid rangeland management. Simulation results show that prescribed fires, timed to kill tree seedlings prevented shrub encroachment for a broad range of livestock densities while the possible maximum long-term cattle densities on the simulated semi-arid rangeland in Namibia increased by more than 30%. However, when grazing intensity was too high, fire management failed in preventing shrub encroachment. Our findings indicate that with regard to fire management a clear distinction between mesic and more arid savannas is necessary: While the frequency of fires is of relevance for mesic savannas, we recommend a fire management focussing on the timing of fire for semi-arid and arid savannas. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Acacia mellifera KW - Bush encroachment KW - Dry land degradation KW - Rangeland management KW - Simulation model KW - Southern Africa Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2014.04.003 SN - 0140-1963 SN - 1095-922X VL - 107 SP - 49 EP - 56 PB - Elsevier CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pagel, Jörn A1 - Anderson, Barbara J. A1 - Cramer, Wolfgang A1 - Fox, Richard A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Roy, David B. A1 - Thomas, Chris D. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Quantifying range-wide variation in population trends from local abundance surveys and widespread opportunistic occurrence records JF - Methods in ecology and evolution : an official journal of the British Ecological Society N2 - 2. We present a hierarchical model that integrates observations from multiple sources to estimate spatio-temporal abundance trends. The model links annual population densities on a spatial grid to both long-term count data and to opportunistic occurrence records from a citizen science programme. Specific observation models for both data types explicitly account for differences in data structure and quality. 3. We test this novel method in a virtual study with simulated data and apply it to the estimation of abundance dynamics across the range of a butterfly species (Pyronia tithonus) in Great Britain between 1985 and 2004. The application to simulated and real data demonstrates how the hierarchical model structure accommodates various sources of uncertainty which occur at different stages of the link between observational data and the modelled abundance, thereby it accounts for these uncertainties in the inference of abundance variations. 4. We show that by using hierarchical observation models that integrate different types of commonly available data sources, we can improve the estimates of variation in species abundances across space and time. This will improve our ability to detect regional trends and can also enhance the empirical basis for understanding range dynamics. KW - atlas data KW - Bayesian statistics KW - biogeography KW - butterflies KW - citizen science programme KW - conservation biology KW - count data KW - macroecology KW - state-space model Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12221 SN - 2041-210X SN - 2041-2096 VL - 5 IS - 8 SP - 751 EP - 760 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ni, Jian A1 - Cao, Xianyong A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Biome distribution over the last 22,000 yr in China JF - Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences N2 - Patterns of past vegetation changes over time and space can help facilitate better understanding of the interactions among climate, ecosystem, and human impact. Biome changes in China over the last 22,000 yr (calibrated radiocarbon date, a BP) were numerically reconstructed by using a standard approach of pollen-plant functional type-biome assignment (biomization). The biomization procedure involves pollen data from 2434 surface sites and 228 fossil sites with a high quality of pollen count and C-14 dating, 51 natural and three anthropogenic plant functional types (PFTs), as well as 19 natural and one anthropogenic biome. Surface pollen-based reconstruction of modern natural biome patterns is in good agreement (74.4%) with actual vegetation distribution in China. However, modem large-scale anthropogenic biome reconstruction has not been successful based on the current setup of three anthropogenic PFTs (plantation, secondary, and disturbed PFT) because of the limitation of non-species level pollen identification and the difficulty in the clear assignment of disturbed PFTs. The non-anthropogenic biome distributions of 44 time slices at 500-year intervals show large-scale discrepant and changed vegetation patterns from the last glacial maximum (LGM) to the Holocene throughout China. From 22 ka BP to 19 ka BP, temperate grassland, xerophytic shrubland, and desert dominated northern China, whereas cold or cool forests flourished in central China. Warm-temperate evergreen forests were restricted to far southern China, and tropical forests were absent During 18.5 ka BP to 12 ka BP, cold, cool, and dry biomes extended to some parts of northern, westem, and eastern China. Warm-temperate evergreen and mixed forests gradually expanded to occupy the whole of southern China. A slight northward shift of forest biomes occurred from 15 ka BP to 12 lea BP. During 11.5 ka BP to 9 ka BP, temperate grassland and shrubland gradually stretched to northern and western China. Cold and cool forests widely expanded into northern and central China, as well as in the northern margin of South China along with temperate deciduous forest. Since the early mid-Holocene (approximately 8.5 ka BP to 5.5 ka BP), all forest biomes shifted northward at the expense of herbaceous and shrubby biomes. Simultaneously, cold and cool forest biomes occupied the marginal areas of the Tibetan Plateau and the high mountains in western China. During the middle to late Holocene, from 5 ka to the present, temperate grassland and xerophytic shrubland expanded to the south and east, whereas temperate deciduous forests slightly shifted southward. After 3 lea BP, forest biomes were absent in western China and on the Tibetan plateau surface. Dramatic biome shifts from the LGM to the Holocene were observed in the forest-grassland ecotone and transitional zones between temperate and subtropical climates, between subtropical and tropical regions, and in the mountainous margins of the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Evidence showed more human disturbances during the late Holocene. More pollen records and historical documents are therefore further needed to understand fully the human disturbance-induced large-scale forest changes. In addition, more classifications of anthropogenic biome or land cover, more distinct assignment of pollen taxa to anthropogenic PFTs, and more effective numerical and/or mechanistic techniques in building large-scale human disturbances are required. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Anthropogenic biome KW - Biomization KW - Holocene KW - Last glacial maximum KW - Plant functional types KW - Pollen dataset Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2014.04.023 SN - 0031-0182 SN - 1872-616X VL - 409 SP - 33 EP - 47 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Luft, Laura A1 - Neumann, Carsten A1 - Freude, Matthias A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Hyperspectral modeling of ecological indicators - A new approach for monitoring former military training areas JF - Ecological indicators : integrating monitoring, assessment and management N2 - Military areas are valuable habitats and refuges for rare and endangered plants and animals. We developed a new approach applying innovative methods of hyperspectral remote sensing to bridge the existing gap between remote sensing technology and the demands of the nature conservation community. Remote sensing has already proven to be a valuable monitoring instrument. However, the approaches lack the consideration of the demands of applied nature conservation which includes the legal demands of the EU Habitat Directive. Following the idea of the Vital Signs Monitoring in the USA, we identified a subset of the highest priority monitoring indicators for our study area. We analyzed continuous spectral response curves and tested the measurability of N=19 indicators on the basis of complexity levels aggregated from extensive vegetation assemblages. The spectral differentiability for the floristic as well as faunistic indicators revealed values up to 100% accuracy. We point out difficulties when it comes to distinguishing faunistic habitat requirements of several species adapted to dry open landscapes, which in this case results in OVERALL ACCURACY of 67, 87-95, and 35% in the error matrix. In summary, we provide an applicable and feasible method to facilitating monitoring military areas by hyperspectral remote sensing in the following. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Ecological health KW - Fauna KW - Flora KW - Hyperspectral remote sensing KW - Military conversion KW - Natura 2000 monitoring Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.06.025 SN - 1470-160X SN - 1872-7034 VL - 46 SP - 264 EP - 285 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Buchmann, Carsten M. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - An allometric model of home range formation explains the structuring of animal communities exploiting heterogeneous resources JF - Oikos N2 - Understanding and predicting the composition and spatial structure of communities is a central challenge in ecology. An important structural property of animal communities is the distribution of individual home ranges. Home range formation is controlled by resource heterogeneity, the physiology and behaviour of individual animals, and their intra- and interspecific interactions. However, a quantitative mechanistic understanding of how home range formation influences community composition is still lacking. To explore the link between home range formation and community composition in heterogeneous landscapes we combine allometric relationships for physiological properties with an algorithm that selects optimal home ranges given locomotion costs, resource depletion and competition in a spatially-explicit individual-based modelling framework. From a spatial distribution of resources and an input distribution of animal body mass, our model predicts the size and location of individual home ranges as well as the individual size distribution (ISD) in an animal community. For a broad range of body mass input distributions, including empirical body mass distributions of North American and Australian mammals, our model predictions agree with independent data on the body mass scaling of home range size and individual abundance in terrestrial mammals. Model predictions are also robust against variation in habitat productivity and landscape heterogeneity. The combination of allometric relationships for locomotion costs and resource needs with resource competition in an optimal foraging framework enables us to scale from individual properties to the structure of animal communities in heterogeneous landscapes. The proposed spatially-explicit modelling concept not only allows for detailed investigation of landscape effects on animal communities, but also provides novel insights into the mechanisms by which resource competition in space shapes animal communities. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18556.x SN - 0030-1299 VL - 120 IS - 1 SP - 106 EP - 118 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schiffers, Katja A1 - Tielboerger, Katja A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Root plasticity buffers competition among plants theory meets experimental data JF - Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America N2 - Morphological plasticity is a striking characteristic of plants in natural communities. In the context of foraging behavior particularly, root plasticity has been documented for numerous species. Root plasticity is known to mitigate competitive interactions by reducing the overlap of the individuals' rhizospheres. But despite its obvious effect on resource acquisition, plasticity has been generally neglected in previous empirical and theoretical studies estimating interaction intensity among plants. In this study, we developed a semi-mechanistic model that addresses this shortcoming by introducing the idea of compensatory growth into the classical-zone-of influence (ZOI) and field-of-neighborhood (FON) approaches. The model parameters describing the belowground plastic sphere of influence (PSI) were parameterized using data from an accompanying field experiment. Measurements of the uptake of a stable nutrient analogue at distinct distances to the neighboring plants showed that the study species responded plastically to belowground competition by avoiding overlap of individuals' rhizospheres. An unexpected finding was that the sphere of influence of the study species Bromus hordeaceus could be best described by a unimodal function of distance to the plant's center and not with a continuously decreasing function as commonly assumed. We employed the parameterized model to investigate the interplay between plasticity and two other important factors determining the intensity of competitive interactions: overall plant density and the distribution of individuals in space. The simulation results confirm that the reduction of competition intensity due to morphological plasticity strongly depends on the spatial structure of the competitive environment. We advocate the use of semi-mechanistic simulations that explicitly consider morphological plasticity to improve our mechanistic understanding of plant interactions. KW - Bromus hordeaceus KW - competition intensity KW - morphological plasticity KW - nutrient analogues KW - plant density KW - PSI (plastic sphere of influence) KW - zone-of-influence model Y1 - 2011 SN - 0012-9658 VL - 92 IS - 3 SP - 610 EP - 620 PB - Wiley CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geyer, Juliane A1 - Kiefer, Iris A1 - Kreft, Stefan A1 - Chavez, Veronica A1 - Salafsky, Nick A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ibisch, Pierre L. T1 - Classification of climate-change-induced stresses on biological diversity JF - Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology N2 - Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate-change-induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate-change-related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate-change-induced stresses. KW - adaptation of conservation strategies KW - adaptive management KW - climate change KW - conservation planning KW - conservation targets KW - hierarchical framework KW - threats to biological diversity Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01676.x SN - 0888-8892 VL - 25 IS - 4 SP - 708 EP - 715 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Mosner, Eva A1 - Schwager, Monika A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - How functional is functional?Ecological groupings in terrestrial animal ecology - towards an animal functional type approach JF - Biodiversity and conservation N2 - Understanding mechanisms to predict changes in plant and animal communities is a key challenge in ecology. The need to transfer knowledge gained from single species to a more generalized approach has led to the development of categorization systems where species' similarities in life strategies and traits are classified into ecological groups (EGs) like functional groups/types or guilds. While approaches in plant ecology undergo a steady improvement and refinement of methodologies, progression in animal ecology is lagging behind. With this review, we aim to initiate a further development of functional classification systems in animal ecology, comparable to recent developments in plant ecology. We here (i) give an overview of terms and definitions of EGs in animal ecology, (ii) discuss existing classification systems, methods and application areas of EGs (focusing on terrestrial vertebrates), and (iii) provide a "roadmap towards an animal functional type approach" for improving the application of EGs and classifications in animal ecology. We found that an animal functional type approach requires: (i) the identification of core traits describing species' dependency on their habitat and life history traits, (ii) an optimization of trait selection by clustering traits into hierarchies, (iii) the assessment of "soft traits" as substitute for hardly measurable traits, e.g. body size for dispersal ability, and (iv) testing of delineated groups for validation including experiments. KW - Ecological classification KW - Functional type KW - Guild KW - Functional trait KW - Trait selection KW - Effect group KW - Response group KW - Environmental relationships Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10531-011-9995-1 SN - 0960-3115 VL - 20 IS - 11 SP - 2333 EP - 2345 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Esther, Alexandra A1 - Groeneveld, Jürgen A1 - Enright, Neal J. A1 - Miller, Ben P. A1 - Lamont, Byron B. A1 - Perry, George L. W. A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Low-dimensional trade-offs fail to explain richness and structure in species-rich plant communities JF - Theoretical ecology N2 - Mathematical models and ecological theory suggest that low-dimensional life history trade-offs (i.e. negative correlation between two life history traits such as competition vs. colonisation) may potentially explain the maintenance of species diversity and community structure. In the absence of trade-offs, we would expect communities to be dominated by 'super-types' characterised by mainly positive trait expressions. However, it has proven difficult to find strong empirical evidence for such trade-offs in species-rich communities. We developed a spatially explicit, rule-based and individual-based stochastic model to explore the importance of low-dimensional trade-offs. This model simulates the community dynamics of 288 virtual plant functional types (PFTs), each of which is described by seven life history traits. We consider trait combinations that fit into the trade-off concept, as well as super-types with little or no energy constraints or resource limitations, and weak PFTs, which do not exploit resources efficiently. The model is parameterised using data from a fire-prone, species-rich Mediterranean-type shrubland in southwestern Australia. We performed an exclusion experiment, where we sequentially removed the strongest PFT in the simulation and studied the remaining communities. We analysed the impact of traits on performance of PFTs in the exclusion experiment with standard and boosted regression trees. Regression tree analysis of the simulation results showed that the trade-off concept is necessary for PFT viability in the case of weak trait expression combinations such as low seed production or small seeds. However, species richness and diversity can be high despite the presence of super-types. Furthermore, the exclusion of super-types does not necessarily lead to a large increase in PFT richness and diversity. We conclude that low-dimensional trade-offs do not provide explanations for multi-species co-existence contrary to the prediction of many conceptual models. KW - Plant diversity KW - Plant functional types KW - Co-existence KW - Spatially explicit model KW - Individual-based model KW - CART KW - Regression tree analysis KW - Boosted regression tree Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12080-010-0092-y SN - 1874-1738 VL - 4 IS - 4 SP - 495 EP - 511 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Giladi, Itamar A1 - Ziv, Yaron A1 - May, Felix A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Scale-dependent determinants of plant species richness in a semi-arid fragmented agro-ecosystem JF - Journal of vegetation science N2 - Aims: (1) Understanding how the relationship between species richness and its determinants depends on the interaction between scales at which the response and explanatory variables are measured. (2) Quantifying the relative contributions of local, intermediate and large-scale determinants of species richness in a fragmented agro-ecosystem. (3) Testing the hypothesis that the relative contribution of these determinants varies with the grain size at which species richness is measured. Location: A fragmented agro-ecosystem in the Southern Judea Lowland, Israel, within a desert-Mediterranean transition zone. Methods: Plant species richness was estimated using hierarchical nested sampling in 81 plots, positioned in 38 natural vegetation patches within an agricultural matrix (mainly wheat fields) among three land units along a sharp precipitation gradient. Explanatory variables included position along that gradient, patch area, patch isolation, habitat heterogeneity and overall plant density. We used general linear models and hierarchical partitioning of variance to test and quantify the effect of each explanatory variable on species richness at four grain sizes (0.0625, 1, 25 and 225m(2)). Results: Species richness was mainly affected by position along a precipitation gradient and overall plant density, and to a lesser extent by habitat heterogeneity. It was also significantly affected by patch area and patch isolation, but only for small grain sizes. The contribution of each explanatory variable to explained variance in species richness varied with grain size, i.e. scale-dependent. The influence of geographic position and habitat heterogeneity on species richness increased with grain size, while the influence of plant density decreased with grain size. Main conclusions: Species richness is determined by the combined effect of several scale-dependent determinants. Ability to detect an effect and effect size of each determinant varies with the scale (grain size) at which it is measured. The combination of a multi-factorial approach and multi-scale sampling reveals that conclusions drawn from studies that ignore these dimensions are restricted and potentially misleading. KW - Habitat fragmentation KW - Hierarchical partitioning of variance KW - Multi-grain sampling KW - Scale-dependence KW - Species density KW - Uniform sampling Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2011.01309.x SN - 1100-9233 VL - 22 IS - 6 SP - 983 EP - 996 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Schwager, Monika A1 - Körner, Katrin A1 - Blaum, Niels T1 - Consequences of correlations between habitat modifications and negative impact of climate change for regional species survival JF - Agriculture, ecosystems & environment : an international journal for scientific research on the relationship of agriculture and food production to the biosphere N2 - While several empirical and theoretical studies have clearly shown the negative effects of climate or landscape changes on population and species survival only few of them addressed combined and correlated consequences of these key environmental drivers. This also includes positive landscape changes such as active habitat management and restoration to buffer the negative effects of deteriorating climatic conditions. In this study, we apply a conceptual spatial modelling approach based on functional types to explore the effects of both positive and negative correlations between changes in habitat and climate conditions on the survival of spatially structured populations. We test the effect of different climate and landscape change scenarios on four different functional types that represent a broad spectrum of species characterised by their landscape level carrying capacity, the local population turnover rates at the patch level (K-strategies vs. r-strategies) and dispersal characterstics. As expected, simulation results show that correlated landscape and climatic changes can accelerate (in case of habitat loss or degradation) or slow down (in case of habitat gain or improvement) regional species extinction. However, the strength of the combined changes depends on local turnover at the patch level, the overall landscape capacity of the species, and its specific dispersal characteristics. Under all scenarios of correlated changes in habitat and climate conditions we found the highest sensitivity for functional types representing species with a low landscape capacity but a high population growth rate and a strong density regulation causing a high turnover at the local patch level. The relative importance of habitat loss or habitat degradation, in combination with climate deterioration, differed among the functional types. However, an increase in regional capacity revealed a similar response pattern: For all types, habitat improvement led to higher survival times than habitat gain, i.e. the establishment of new habitat patches. This suggests that improving local habitat quality at a regional scale is a more promising conservation strategy under climate change than implementing new habitat patches. This conceptual modelling study provides a general framework to better understand and support the management of populations prone to complex environmental changes. KW - Functional types KW - Spatially explicit modelling KW - Dynamic landscapes KW - Species conservation KW - Habitat fragmentation KW - Habitat management Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2010.12.019 SN - 0167-8809 VL - 145 IS - 1 SP - 49 EP - 58 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Seifan, Merav A1 - Seifan, Tal A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Tielboerger, Katja T1 - Combined disturbances and the role of their spatial and temporal properties in shaping community structure JF - Perspectives in plant ecology, evolution and systematics N2 - Disturbances are characteristic for many ecosystems. However, we still lack generalizations concerning their role in shaping communities, particularly when disturbances co-occur. To study such effects, we used a novel modeling approach that is unrestricted by a priori tradeoffs among specific plant traits, except for those generated by allocation principles. Thus, trait combinations were emergent properties associated with biotic and abiotic constraints. Specifically, we asked which traits dominate under specific disturbance regimes, whether single and combined disturbance regimes promote similar trait tradeoffs and how complex disturbance regimes affect species richness and functional diversity. Overall, disturbances' temporal properties governed the outcome of combined disturbances and were a stronger assortative force than spatial disturbance properties: low temporal predictability decreased seed-dispersability and dormancy, but increased competitive ability and disturbance tolerance. Evidence for tradeoffs between different colonization modes and between dormancy and disturbance tolerance were found, while surprisingly, the widely accepted colonization-competition tradeoff was not generated. Diversity was highest at intermediate disturbance intensity, but decreased monotonically with increasing unpredictability. In accordance with our results, future models should avoid restrictive assumptions about tradeoffs to generate robust and more general predictions about the role of disturbances for community dynamics. KW - Intermediate disturbance hypothesis KW - Coexistence KW - Environmental heterogeneity KW - Competition-colonization KW - Plant community KW - Individual-based model Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2011.11.003 SN - 1433-8319 VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 217 EP - 229 PB - Elsevier CY - Jena ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Buchmann, Carsten M. A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin A1 - Nathan, Ran A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Movement upscaled - the importance of individual foraging movement for community response to habitat loss JF - Ecography : pattern and diversity in ecology ; research papers forum N2 - Habitat loss poses a severe threat to biodiversity. While many studies yield valuable information on how specific species cope with such environmental modification, the mechanistic understanding of how interacting species or whole communities are affected by habitat loss is still poor. Individual movement plays a crucial role for the space use characteristics of species, since it determines how individuals perceive and use their heterogeneous environment. At the community level, it is therefore essential to include individual movement and how it is influenced by resource sharing into the investigation of consequences of habitat loss. To elucidate the effects of foraging movement on communities in face of habitat loss, we here apply a recently published spatially-explicit and individual-based model of home range formation. This approach allows predicting the individual size distribution (ISD) of mammal communities in simulation landscapes that vary in the amount of suitable habitat. We apply three fundamentally different foraging movement approaches (central place forager (CPF), patrolling forager (PF) and body mass dependent nomadic forager (BNF)). Results show that the efficiency of the different foraging strategies depends on body mass, which again affects community structure in face of habitat loss. CPF is only efficient for small animals, and therefore yields steep ISD exponents on which habitat loss has little effect (due to a movement limitation of body mass). PF and particularly BNF are more efficient for larger animals, resulting in less steep ISDs with higher mass maxima, both showing a threshold behaviour with regard to loss of suitable habitat. These findings represent a new way of explaining observed extinction thresholds, and therefore indicate the importance of individual space use characterized by physiology and behaviour, i.e. foraging movement, for communities and their response to habitat loss. Findings also indicate the necessity to incorporate the crucial role of movement into future conservation efforts of terrestrial communities. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2011.06924.x SN - 0906-7590 VL - 35 IS - 5 SP - 436 EP - 445 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - May, Felix A1 - Giladi, Itamar A1 - Ziv, Yaron A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Dispersal and diversity - unifying scale-dependent relationships within the neutral theory JF - Oikos N2 - The response of species diversity to dispersal capability is inherently scale-dependent: increasing dispersal capability is expected to increase diversity at the local scale, while decreasing diversity at the metacommunity scale. However, these expectations are based on model formulations that neglect dispersal limitation and species segregation at the local scale. We developed a unifying framework of dispersaldiversity relationships and tested the generality of these expectations. For this purpose we used a spatially-explicit neutral model with various combinations of survey area (local scale) and landscape size (metacommunity scale). Simulations were conducted using landscapes of finite and of conceptually infinite size. We analyzed the scale-dependence of dispersal-diversity relationships for exponentially-bounded versus fat-tailed dispersal kernels, several levels of speciation rate and contrasting assumptions on recruitment at short dispersal distances. We found that the ratio of survey area to landscape size is a major determinant of dispersaldiversity relationships. With increasing survey-to-landscape area ratio the dispersaldiversity relationship switches from monotonically increasing through a U-shaped pattern (with a local minimum) to a monotonically decreasing pattern. Therefore, we provide a continuous set of dispersaldiversity relationships, which contains the response shapes reported previously as extreme cases. We suggest the mean dispersal distance with the minimum of species diversity (minimizing dispersal distance) for a certain scenario as a key characteristic of dispersaldiversity relationships. We show that not only increasing mean dispersal distances, but also increasing variances of dispersal can enhance diversity at the local scale, given a diverse species pool at the metacommunity scale. In conclusion, the response of diversity to variations of dispersal capability at spatial scales of interest, e.g. conservation areas, can differ more widely than expected previously. Therefore, land use and conservation activities, which manipulate dispersal capability, need to consider the landscape context and potential species pools carefully. Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2011.20078.x SN - 0030-1299 VL - 121 IS - 6 SP - 942 EP - 951 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lohmann, Dirk A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Joubert, David F. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Shifting thresholds and changing degradation patterns: climate change effects on the simulated long-term response of a semi-arid savanna to grazing JF - Journal of applied ecology : an official journal of the British Ecological Society N2 - 1. The complex, nonlinear response of dryland systems to grazing and climatic variations is a challenge to management of these lands. Predicted climatic changes will impact the desertification of drylands under domestic livestock production. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the response of drylands to grazing under climate change. 2. We enhanced and parameterized an ecohydrological savanna model to assess the impacts of a range of climate change scenarios on the response of a semi-arid African savanna to grazing. We focused on the effects of temperature and CO2 level increase in combination with changes in inter- and intra-annual precipitation patterns on the long-term dynamics of three major plant functional types. 3. We found that the capacity of the savanna to sustain livestock grazing was strongly influenced by climate change. Increased mean annual precipitation and changes in intra-annual precipitation pattern have the potential to slightly increase carrying capacities of the system. In contrast, decreased precipitation, higher interannual variation and temperature increase are leading to a severe decline of carrying capacities owing to losses of the perennial grass biomass. 4. Semi-arid rangelands will be at lower risk of shrub encroachment and encroachment will be less intense under future climatic conditions. This finding holds in spite of elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 and irrespective of changes in precipitation pattern, because of the drought sensitivity of germination and establishment of encroaching species. 5. Synthesis and applications. Changes in livestock carrying capacities, both positive and negative, mainly depend on the highly uncertain future rainfall conditions. However, independent of the specific changes, shrub encroachment becomes less likely and in many cases less severe. Thus, managers of semi-arid rangelands should shift their focus from woody vegetation towards perennial grass species as indicators for rangeland degradation. Furthermore, the resulting reduced competition from woody vegetation has the potential to facilitate ecosystem restoration measures such as re-introduction of desirable plant species that are only little promising or infeasible under current climatic conditions. On a global scale, the reductions in standing biomass resulting from altered degradation dynamics of semi-arid rangelands can have negative impacts on carbon sequestration. KW - CO2 increase KW - demographic bottleneck KW - ecohydrology KW - grid-based simulation model KW - livestock KW - precipitation pattern KW - savanna resilience KW - shrub encroachment KW - soil moisture KW - sustainable rangeland management Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2012.02157.x SN - 0021-8901 VL - 49 IS - 4 SP - 814 EP - 823 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER -