TY - GEN A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kundela, Günther A1 - Dosio, Alessandro A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Frequency analysis of critical meteorological conditions in a changing climate BT - assessing future implications for railway transportation in Austria N2 - Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 358 KW - climate change KW - critical meteorological condition KW - frequency analysis KW - natural hazard management KW - railway transportation Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400505 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Fluschnik, Till A1 - Kriewald, Steffen A1 - Ros, Anselmo García Cantú A1 - Zhou, Bin A1 - Reusser, Dominik Edwin A1 - Kropp, Jürgen A1 - Rybski, Diego T1 - The size distribution, scaling properties and spatial organization of urban clusters BT - a global and regional percolation perspective N2 - Human development has far-reaching impacts on the surface of the globe. The transformation of natural land cover occurs in different forms, and urban growth is one of the most eminent transformative processes. We analyze global land cover data and extract cities as defined by maximally connected urban clusters. The analysis of the city size distribution for all cities on the globe confirms Zipf’s law. Moreover, by investigating the percolation properties of the clustering of urban areas we assess the closeness to criticality for various countries. At the critical thresholds, the urban land cover of the countries undergoes a transition from separated clusters to a gigantic component on the country scale. We study the Zipf-exponents as a function of the closeness to percolation and find a systematic dependence, which could be the reason for deviating exponents reported in the literature. Moreover, we investigate the average size of the clusters as a function of the proximity to percolation and find country specific behavior. By relating the standard deviation and the average of cluster sizes—analogous to Taylor’s law—we suggest an alternative way to identify the percolation transition. We calculate spatial correlations of the urban land cover and find long-range correlations. Finally, by relating the areas of cities with population figures we address the global aspect of the allometry of cities, finding an exponent δ ≈ 0.85, i.e., large cities have lower densities. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 356 KW - Zipf’s law KW - city clusters KW - percolation KW - Taylor’s law Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400486 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Pech, Ina A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Buchholz, Oliver A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Coping with pluvial floods by private households N2 - Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 355 KW - pluvial floods KW - surface water flooding KW - emergency response KW - early warning KW - preparedness KW - damage KW - mitigation Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400465 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Arodudu, Oludunsin Tunrayo A1 - Helming, Katharina A1 - Wiggering, Hubert A1 - Voinov, Alexey T1 - Bioenergy from low-intensity agricultural systems BT - an energy efficiency analysis N2 - In light of possible future restrictions on the use of fossil fuel, due to climate change obligations and continuous depletion of global fossil fuel reserves, the search for alternative renewable energy sources is expected to be an issue of great concern for policy stakeholders. This study assessed the feasibility of bioenergy production under relatively low-intensity conservative, eco-agricultural settings (as opposed to those produced under high-intensity, fossil fuel based industrialized agriculture). Estimates of the net energy gain (NEG) and the energy return on energy invested (EROEI) obtained from a life cycle inventory of the energy inputs and outputs involved reveal that the energy efficiency of bioenergy produced in low-intensity eco-agricultural systems could be as much as much as 448.5–488.3 GJ·ha−1 of NEG and an EROEI of 5.4–5.9 for maize ethanol production systems, and as much as 155.0–283.9 GJ·ha−1 of NEG and an EROEI of 14.7–22.4 for maize biogas production systems. This is substantially higher than for industrialized agriculture with a NEG of 2.8–52.5 GJ·ha−1 and an EROEI of 1.2–1.7 for maize ethanol production systems, as well as a NEG of 59.3–188.7 GJ·ha−1 and an EROEI of 2.2–10.2 for maize biogas production systems. Bioenergy produced in low-intensity eco-agricultural systems could therefore be an important source of energy with immense net benefits for local and regional end-users, provided a more efficient use of the co-products is ensured. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 351 KW - bioenergy KW - biofuel KW - energy efficiency KW - NEG KW - EROEI KW - high-intensity industrialized agricultural production systems KW - low-intensity eco-agricultural production systems Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400403 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bösche, Nina Kristine A1 - Rogass, Christian A1 - Lubitz, Christin A1 - Brell, Maximilian A1 - Herrmann, Sabrina A1 - Mielke, Christian A1 - Tonn, Sabine A1 - Appelt, Oona A1 - Altenberger, Uwe A1 - Kaufmann, Hermann T1 - Hyperspectral REE (Rare Earth Element) mapping of outcrops BT - applications for neodymium detection N2 - In this study, an in situ application for identifying neodymium (Nd) enriched surface materials that uses multitemporal hyperspectral images is presented (HySpex sensor). Because of the narrow shape and shallow absorption depth of the neodymium absorption feature, a method was developed for enhancing and extracting the necessary information for neodymium from image spectra, even under illumination conditions that are not optimal. For this purpose, the two following approaches were developed: (1) reducing noise and analyzing changing illumination conditions by averaging multitemporal image scenes and (2) enhancing the depth of the desired absorption band by deconvolving every image spectrum with a Gaussian curve while the rest of the spectrum remains unchanged (Richardson-Lucy deconvolution). To evaluate these findings, nine field samples from the Fen complex in Norway were analyzed using handheld X-ray fluorescence devices and by conducting detailed laboratory-based geochemical rare earth element determinations. The result is a qualitative outcrop map that highlights zones that are enriched in neodymium. To reduce the influences of non-optimal illumination, particularly at the studied site, a minimum of seven single acquisitions is required. Sharpening the neodymium absorption band allows for robust mapping, even at the outer zones of enrichment. From the geochemical investigations, we found that iron oxides decrease the applicability of the method. However, iron-related absorption bands can be used as secondary indicators for sulfidic ore zones that are mainly enriched with rare earth elements. In summary, we found that hyperspectral spectroscopy is a noninvasive, fast and cost-saving method for determining neodymium at outcrop surfaces T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 350 KW - rare earth elements KW - imaging spectroscopy KW - neodymium KW - hyperspectral KW - HySpex KW - remote sensing KW - Fen complex Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400171 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Malinowski, Radosław A1 - Groom, Geoff A1 - Schwanghart, Wolfgang A1 - Heckrath, Goswin T1 - Detection and delineation of localized flooding from WorldView-2 multispectral data N2 - Remote sensing technology serves as a powerful tool for analyzing geospatial characteristics of flood inundation events at various scales. However, the performance of remote sensing methods depends heavily on the flood characteristics and landscape settings. Difficulties might be encountered in mapping the extent of localized flooding with shallow water on riverine floodplain areas, where patches of herbaceous vegetation are interspersed with open water surfaces. To address the difficulties in mapping inundation on areas with complex water and vegetation compositions, a high spatial resolution dataset has to be used to reduce the problem of mixed pixels. The main objective of our study was to investigate the possibilities of using a single date WorldView-2 image of very high spatial resolution and supporting data to analyze spatial patterns of localized flooding on a riverine floodplain. We used a decision tree algorithm with various combinations of input variables including spectral bands of the WorldView-2 image, selected spectral indices dedicated to mapping water surfaces and vegetation, and topographic data. The overall accuracies of the twelve flood extent maps derived with the decision tree method and performed on both pixels and image objects ranged between 77% and 95%. The highest mapping overall accuracy was achieved with a method that utilized all available input data and the object-based image analysis. Our study demonstrates the possibility of using single date WorldView-2 data for analyzing flooding events at high spatial detail despite the absence of spectral bands from the short-waveform region that are frequently used in water related studies. Our study also highlights the importance of topographic data in inundation analyses. The greatest difficulties were met in mapping water surfaces under dense canopy herbaceous vegetation, due to limited water surface exposure and the dominance of vegetation reflectance. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 348 KW - decision tree KW - floodplain KW - inundation KW - localized flooding KW - object-based image analysis KW - wetlands KW - WorldView-2 Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400149 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Aich, Valentin A1 - Liersch, Stefan A1 - Vetter, Tobias A1 - Andersson, Jafet C. M. A1 - Müller, Eva Nora A1 - Hattermann, Fred T1 - Climate or land use? BT - Attribution of changes in river flooding in the Sahel Zone N2 - This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950–2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 345 KW - simulation-based attribution KW - Sahel KW - Niger River KW - climate variability KW - hydrological modeling KW - flood mitigation KW - flood adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400115 ER - TY - THES A1 - Meier, Tobias T1 - Borehole Breakouts in Transversely Isotropic Posidonia Shale T1 - Bohrlochrandausbrüche in transversal isotropen Posidonienschiefer N2 - Borehole instabilities are frequently encountered when drilling through finely laminated, organic rich shales (Økland and Cook, 1998; Ottesen, 2010; etc.); such instabilities should be avoided to assure a successful exploitation and safe production of the contained unconventional hydrocarbons. Borehole instabilities, such as borehole breakouts or drilling induced tensile fractures, may lead to poor cementing of the borehole annulus, difficulties with recording and interpretation of geophysical logs, low directional control and in the worst case the loss of the well. If these problems are not recognized and expertly remedied, pollution of the groundwater or the emission of gases into the atmosphere can occur since the migration paths of the hydrocarbons in the subsurface are not yet fully understood (e.g., Davies et al., 2014; Zoback et al., 2010). In addition, it is often mentioned that the drilling problems encountered and the resulting downtimes of the wellbore system in finely laminated shales significantly increase drilling costs (Fjaer et al., 2008; Aadnoy and Ong, 2003). In order to understand and reduce the borehole instabilities during drilling in unconventional shales, we investigate stress-induced irregular extensions of the borehole diameter, which are also referred to as borehole breakouts. For this purpose, experiments with different borehole diameters, bedding plane angles and stress boundary conditions were performed on finely laminated Posidonia shales. The Lower Jurassic Posidonia shale is one of the most productive source rocks for conventional reservoirs in Europe and has the greatest potential for unconventional oil and gas in Europe (Littke et al., 2011). In this work, Posidonia shale specimens from the North (PN) and South (PS) German basins were selected and characterized petrophysically and mechanically. The composition of the two shales is dominated by calcite (47-56%) followed by clays (23-28%) and quartz (16-17%). The remaining components are mainly pyrite and organic matter. The porosity of the shales varies considerably and is up to 10% for PS and 1% for PN, which is due to a larger deposition depth of PN. Both shales show marked elasticity and strength anisotropy, which can be attributed to a macroscopic distribution and orientation of soft and hard minerals. Under load the hard minerals form a load-bearing, supporting structure, while the soft minerals compensate the deformation. Therefore, if loaded parallel to the bedding, the Posidonia shale is more brittle than loaded normal to the bedding. The resulting elastic anisotropy, which can be defined by the ratio of the modulus of elasticity parallel and normal to the bedding, is about 50%, while the strength anisotropy (i.e., the ratio of uniaxial compressive strength normal and parallel to the bedding) is up to 66%. Based on the petrophysical characterization of the two rocks, a transverse isotropy (TVI) was derived. In general, PS is softer and weaker than PN, which is due to the stronger compaction of the material due to the higher burial depth. Conventional triaxial borehole breakout experiments on specimens with different borehole diameters showed that, when the diameter of the borehole is increased, the stress required to initiate borehole breakout decreases to a constant value. This value can be expressed as the ratio of the tangential stress and the uniaxial compressive strength of the rock. The ratio increases exponentially with decreasing borehole diameter from about 2.5 for a 10 mm diameter hole to ~ 7 for a 1 mm borehole (increase of initiation stress by 280%) and can be described by a fracture mechanic based criterion. The reduction in borehole diameter is therefore a considerable aspect in reducing the risk of breakouts. New drilling techniques with significantly reduced borehole diameters, such as "fish-bone" holes, are already underway and are currently being tested (e.g., Xing et al., 2012). The observed strength anisotropy and the TVI material behavior are also reflected in the observed breakout processes at the borehole wall. Drill holes normal to the bedding develop breakouts in a plane of isotropy and are not affected by the strength or elasticity anisotropy. The observed breakouts are point-symmetric and form compressive shear failure planes, which can be predicted by a Mohr-Coulomb failure approach. If the shear failure planes intersect, conjugate breakouts can be described as "dog-eared” breakouts. While the initiation of breakouts for wells oriented normal to the stratification has been triggered by random local defects, reduced strengths parallel to bedding planes are the starting point for breakouts for wells parallel to the bedding. In the case of a deflected borehole trajectory, therefore, the observed failure type changes from shear-induced failure surfaces to buckling failure of individual layer packages. In addition, the breakout depths and widths increased, resulting in a stress-induced enlargement of the borehole cross-section and an increased output of rock material into the borehole. With the transition from shear to buckling failure and changing bedding plane angle with respect to the borehole axis, the stress required for inducing wellbore breakouts drops by 65%. These observations under conventional triaxial stress boundary conditions could also be confirmed under true triaxial stress conditions. Here breakouts grew into the rock as a result of buckling failure, too. In this process, the broken layer packs rotate into the pressure-free drill hole and detach themselves from the surrounding rock by tensile cracking. The final breakout shape in Posidonia shale can be described as trapezoidal when the bedding planes are parallel to the greatest horizontal stress and to the borehole axis. In the event that the largest horizontal stress is normal to the stratification, breakouts were formed entirely by shear fractures between the stratification and required higher stresses to initiate similar to breakouts in conventional triaxial experiments with boreholes oriented normal to the bedding. In the content of this work, a fracture mechanics-based failure criterion for conventional triaxial loading conditions in isotropic rocks (Dresen et al., 2010) has been successfully extended to true triaxial loading conditions in the transverse isotropic rock to predict the initiation of borehole breakouts. The criterion was successfully verified on the experiments carried out. The extended failure criterion and the conclusions from the laboratory and numerical work may help to reduce the risk of borehole breakouts in unconventional shales. N2 - Bei Bohrungen in feinlaminierten, organikreichen Schiefern werden häufig Bohrlochinstabilitäten beobachtet (Økland und Cook, 1998; Ottesen, 2010 und weitere), welche für eine sichere und erfolgreiche Erschließung der darin gespeicherten unkonventionellen Kohlenwasserstoffe vermieden werden sollten. Bohrlochinstabilitäten, wie zum Beispiel Bohrlochrandausbrüche oder bohrungsbedingte Zugrisse, führen unter Umständen zu einer schlechten bzw. unzureichenden Zementierung des Ringraum, zu Schwierigkeiten bei der Aufnahme und späteren Interpretation bohrlochgeophysikalischer Messungen sowie zu einer verringerten Kontrolle über die Auslenkung der Bohrung und im schlimmsten Fall zum Verlust der Bohrung. Werden diese Probleme nicht erkannt und fachmännisch behoben, kann es zur Verschmutzung des Grundwassers oder zum Austritt von Gasen in die Atmosphäre kommen, da die Migrationspfade der Kohlenwasserstoffe im Untergrund noch nicht vollständig verstanden sind (z.B. Davies et al., 2014; Zoback et al., 2010). Darüber hinaus wird häufig erwähnt, dass die angetroffenen Bohrprobleme und die daraus entstehenden Ausfallzeiten der Bohrlochanlage in feinlaminierten Schiefern die Bohrkosten erheblich erhöhen (Fjaer et al., 2008; Aadnoy und Ong, 2003). Um die Bohrlochinstabilitäten während des Bohrens in unkonventionellen Speichergesteinen zu verstehen und zu reduzieren, untersuchen wir in dieser Arbeit spannungsbedingte unregelmäßige Erweiterungen des Bohrlochdurchmessers, die auch als Bohrlochrandausbrüche (borehole breakouts) bezeichnet werden. Dazu wurden Versuche mit unterschiedlichen Bohrlochdurchmessern, Schichteinfallswinkeln und Belastungsrandbedingungen an feinlaminierten Posidonienschiefern durchgeführt. Der aus dem Unteren Jura stammende Posidonienschiefer ist eines der produktivsten Muttergesteine für konventionelle Lagerstätten in Europa und besitzt zeitgleich das größte Potential für unkonventionelles Öl und Gas in Europa (Littke et al., 2011). Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurden Posidonienschieferproben aus dem Norddeutschen (PN) und Süddeutschen (PS) Becken ausgewählt und petrophysikalisch sowie mechanisch charakterisiert. Die Zusammensetzung der beiden Schiefer wird dominiert von Kalzit (47-56%) gefolgt von Tonen (23-28%) und Quarz (16-17%). Die verbleibenden Komponenten sind hauptsächlich Pyrit und organische Substanz. Die Porosität des Schiefers schwankt beträchtlich und beträgt bis zu 10% für PS und 1% für PN, was auf eine größere Versenkungstiefe von PN zurückzuführen ist. Beide Schiefer zeigen ausgeprägte Elastizitäts- und Festigkeitsanisotropie, welche einer makroskopischen Verteilung und Orientierung von weichen und harten Mineralen zugeschrieben werden kann. Unter Belastung bilden die harten Minerale eine tragende Struktur, während die weichen Minerale die Verformung kompensieren. Daher verhält sich der Posidonienschiefer bei Belastung parallel zur Schichtfläche spröder als bei einer Belastung normal zur Schichtfläche. Die resultierende elastische Anisotropie, die über das Verhältnis des Elastizitätsmoduls parallel und normal zu Schichtung definiert werden kann, beträgt circa 50%, während die Festigkeitsanisotropie (d.h. das Verhältnis der uniaxialen Druckfestigkeit normal und parallel zur Schichtung) bis zu 66% beträgt. Basierend auf der petrophysikalischen Charakterisierung der beiden Gesteine konnte eine transversale Isotropie (TVI) abgeleitet werden. Im Allgemeinen ist PS weicher und schwächer als PN, was auf der stärkeren Verdichtung des Materials aufgrund der höheren Versenkungstiefe beruht. Konventionelle triaxiale Experimente zur Entstehung von Bohrlochrandausbrüchen an Proben mit unterschiedlichen Bohrlochdurchmessern zeigten, dass bei Vergrößerung des Bohrlochdurchmessers die zum Auslösen des Randausbruches erforderliche Spannung gegen einen konstanten Wert absinkt. Dieser kann als Verhältnis der Tangentialspannung und der einachsialen Druckfestigkeit des Gesteins ausgedrückt werden. Das Verhältnis erhöht sich exponentiell mit kleiner werdendem Bohrlochdurchmesser von circa 2,5 für ein 10 mm großes Bohrloch auf ~7 für ein 1 mm großes Bohrloch (Zunahme der Initiierungsspannung um 280%) und kann durch ein bruchmechanisch basiertes Kriterium beschrieben werden. Die Verringerung des Bohrlochdurchmessers stellt daher einen beträchtlichen Aspekt bei der Verringerung des Risikos für Bohrlochausbrüche dar. Neue Bohrtechniken mit deutlich reduzierten Bohrlochdurchmessern wie zum Beispiel „fish-bone“ Bohrungen nehmen dieses Konzept bereits auf und werden derzeit getestet (z. B. Xing et al., 2012). Die beobachtete Festigkeitsanisotropie und das TVI Materialverhalten spiegeln sich auch in den beobachteten Ausbruchsprozessen am Bohrlochrand wider. Bohrlöcher normal zur Schichtung entwickeln Randausbrüche in einer Ebene der Isotropie und werden nicht durch die Festigkeitsoder Elastizitätsanisotropie beeinflusst. Die beobachteten Ausbrüche sind punktsymmetrisch und bilden kompressive Schubversagensebenen, die durch einen Mohr-Coulomb-Versagensansatz vorhergesagt werden können. Falls sich die Schubversagensebenen schneiden, bilden sich konjugierte Ausbrüche die als „hundeohrförmig“ (dog-eared breakout) beschrieben werden können. Während die Initiierung von Randausbrüchen für Bohrlöcher normal zur Schichtung durch zufällige lokale Defekte ausgelöst wurde, sind reduzierte Festigkeiten parallel zur Schichtung der Ausgangspunkt für Bohrlochrandausbrüche für Bohrlöcher parallel zur Schichtung. Im Falle einer abgelenkten Bohrlochtrajektorie ändert sich daher der beobachtete Versagenstyp von schubdominiertem Versagensflächen zu Knickversagen einzelner Schichtpakete. Darüber hinaus nahmen die Ausbruchtiefen und -breiten zu, was zu einer spannungsbedingten Vergrößerung des Bohrlochquerschnitts und einem vermehrten Ausstoß von Gesteinsmaterial in das Bohrloch führte. Zeitgleich sinkt beim Übergang von Schub- zu Knickversagen und sich ändernden Schichteinfallswinkel, die für das Induzieren von Bohrlochrandausbrüchen notwendige Spannung um 65%, deutlich ab. Diese Beobachtungen unter konventionellen triaxialen Belastungsrandbedingungen konnten auch unter echt-triaxialen Belastungsrandbedingungen bestätigt werden. Hier wuchsen die Randausbrüche ebenfalls normal zur Schichtfläche durch Knickfehler in das Gestein. Dabei rotierten die gebrochenen Schichtpakete in das druckfreie Bohrloch und lösten sich vom umgebenden Gestein durch Zugrisse ab. Die endgültige Ausbruchform im Posidonienschiefer kann als trapezförmig beschrieben werden, wenn die Schichtfläche parallel zur größten horizontalen Spannung liegt. In dem Fall, dass die größte horizontale Spannung normal zur Schichtung orientiert ist, wurden Ausbrüche vollständig durch Scherbrüche zwischen den Schichtflächen gebildet und benötigten höhere Spannungen zur Initiierung. Im Rahmen dieser Arbeit wurde ein bruchmechanisch-basiertes Versagenskriterium für konventionelle triaxiale Belastungsbedingungen in isotropen Gesteinen (Dresen et al., 2010) erfolgreich auf echte triaxiale Belastungsbedingungen im transversal isotropen Gestein erweitert, um die Initiierung von Bohrlochrandausbrüchen vorherzusagen. Das Kriterium konnte erfolgreich an den durchgeführten Versuchen verifiziert werden. Das erweiterte Versagenskriterium und die Schlussfolgerungen aus dem Labor und der numerischen Arbeit helfen, das Risiko von Bohrlochausbrüchen in unkonventionellen Schiefern zu reduzieren. KW - borehole breakouts KW - unconventional shale KW - Posidonia shale KW - hollow cylinder experiments KW - shale strength KW - Bohrlochrandausbrüche KW - unkonventionelle Schiefer KW - Posidonienschiefer KW - Hohlzylinderversuche KW - Festigkeit des Schiefer Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400019 ER - TY - THES A1 - Weege, Stefanie T1 - Climatic drivers of retrogressive thaw slump activity and resulting sediment and carbon release to the nearshore zone of Herschel Island, Yukon Territory, Canada T1 - Einfluss des Klimas auf das Auftauen einer rückschreitenden Erosionsfront und die daraus resultierende Sediment- und Kohlenstofffreigabe in den Küstenbereich von Herschel Island, Kanada N2 - The Yukon Coast in Canada is an ice-rich permafrost coast and highly sensitive to changing environmental conditions. Retrogressive thaw slumps are a common thermoerosion feature along this coast, and develop through the thawing of exposed ice-rich permafrost on slopes and removal of accumulating debris. They contribute large amounts of sediment, including organic carbon and nitrogen, to the nearshore zone. The objective of this study was to 1) identify the climatic and geomorphological drivers of sediment-meltwater release, 2) quantify the amount of released meltwater, sediment, organic carbon and nitrogen, and 3) project the evolution of sediment-meltwater release of retrogressive thaw slumps in a changing future climate. The analysis is based on data collected over 18 days in July 2013 and 18 days in August 2012. A cut-throat flume was set up in the main sediment-meltwater channel of the largest retrogressive thaw slump on Herschel Island. In addition, two weather stations, one on top of the undisturbed tundra and one on the slump floor, measured incoming solar radiation, air temperature, wind speed and precipitation. The discharge volume eroding from the ice-rich permafrost and retreating snowbanks was measured and compared to the meteorological data collected in real time with a resolution of one minute. The results show that the release of sediment-meltwater from thawing of the ice-rich permafrost headwall is strongly related to snowmelt, incoming solar radiation and air temperature. Snowmelt led to seasonal differences, especially due to the additional contribution of water to the eroding sediment-meltwater from headwall ablation, lead to dilution of the sediment-meltwater composition. Incoming solar radiation and air temperature were the main drivers for diurnal and inter-diurnal fluctuations. In July (2013), the retrogressive thaw slump released about 25 000 m³ of sediment-meltwater, containing 225 kg dissolved organic carbon and 2050 t of sediment, which in turn included 33 t organic carbon, and 4 t total nitrogen. In August (2012), just 15 600 m³ of sediment-meltwater was released, since there was no additional contribution from snowmelt. However, even without the additional dilution, 281 kg dissolved organic carbon was released. The sediment concentration was twice as high as in July, with sediment contents of up to 457 g l-1 and 3058 t of sediment, including 53 t organic carbon and 5 t nitrogen, being released. In addition, the data from the 36 days of observations from Slump D were upscaled to cover the main summer season of 1 July to 31 August (62 days) and to include all 229 active retrogressive thaw slumps along the Yukon Coast. In total, all retrogressive thaw slumps along the Yukon Coast contribute a minimum of 1.4 Mio. m³ sediment-meltwater each thawing season, containing a minimum of 172 000 t sediment with 3119 t organic carbon, 327 t nitrogen and 17 t dissolved organic carbon. Therefore, in addition to the coastal erosion input to the Beaufort Sea, retrogressive thaw slumps additionally release 3 % of sediment and 8 % of organic carbon into the ocean. Finally, the future evolution of retrogressive thaw slumps under a warming scenario with summer air temperatures increasing by 2-3 °C by 2081-2100, would lead to an increase of 109-114% in release of sediment-meltwater. It can be concluded that retrogressive thaw slumps are sensitive to climatic conditions and under projected future Arctic warming will contribute larger amounts of thawed permafrost material (including organic carbon and nitrogen) into the environment. N2 - Die Yukon Küste in Kanada ist eine eisreiche Permafrost Küste und reagiert hoch sensibel auf verändernde Umweltbedingungen. Rückschreitende auftaubedingte Rutschungen sind vielzählig entlang der Küste und entstehen, wenn exponierter eisreicher Permafrost an Hängen auftaut und der daraus resultierende Schlamm abtransportiert wird. Diese Rutschungen tragen große Mengen von Sediment, inklusive organischen Kohlenstoff und Stickstoff, in den küstennahen Bereich. Das Ziel dieser Studie war 1) die klimatischen und geomorphologischen Antriebskräfte für die Freisetzung von Sediment-Schmelzwasser zu identifizieren 2) die Mengen an Schmelzwasser, Sediment, organischen Kohlenstoff und Stickstoff zu quantifizieren und 3) die Entwicklung der Sediment-Schmelzwasser-Freigabe von rückschreitenden Rutschungen unter zukünftigen klimatischen Veränderungen abzuschätzen. Die größte rückschreitende Rutschung auf Herschel Island wird als „Slump D“ bezeichnet und steht im Fokus dieser Arbeit. Die Analysen basierten auf den Daten, die über 18 Tage im Juli (2013) und 18 Tage im August (2012) erhoben wurden. Eine Abfluss-Messrinne wurde in den Haupt-Sediment-Schmelzwasser-Kanal eingebaut, um die Sediment-Schmelzwassermassen zu erfassen. Zusätzlich wurden zwei Wetterstationen aufgebaut (auf der unberührten Tundra und innerhalb der Erosionsfläche), die Sonneneinstrahlung, Lufttemperatur, Windgeschwindigkeit und Niederschlagsmenge aufzeichneten. Das Abflussvolumen, das vom auftauenden, eisreichen Permafrost und den schmelzenden Schneebänken ablief, wurde gemessen und mit den meteorologischen Daten in Echtzeit mit einer Auflösung von einer Minute verglichen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine Freigabe von Sediment-Schmelzwasser beim Auftauen der eisreichen Permafrost-Steilklippe stark von Schneeschmelze, Sonneneinstrahlung und Lufttemperatur abhängen. Die Schneeschmelze führt zu saisonalen Unterschieden, besonders durch den zusätzlichen Betrag von Wasser zu dem erodierenden Sediment-Schmelzwasser der auftauenden Steilklippe. Dies führt zu einer Verdünnung des Sediment-Schmelzwassers. Sonneneinstrahlung und Lufttemperaturen waren die Hauptantriebskräfte für die Schwankungen im Tagesverlauf und die Unterschiede zwischen den Tagen. Die rückschreitende Rutschung gab im Juli (2013) ungefähr 25 000 m³ Sediment-Schmelzwasser frei, welches 225 kg gelösten organischen Kohlenstoff, 2050 t Sediment, inklusive 33 t organischen Kohlenstoff und 4 t Stickstoff enthielt. Im August (2012) fehlte der zusätzliche Eintrag der Schneeschmelze und das Sediment-Schmelzwasser-Volumen war geringer mit 15 600 m³. Dennoch, ohne die zusätzliche Verdünnung, wurden 281 kg gelöster organischer Kohlenstoff freigesetzt. Die Sedimentkonzentration war doppelt so hoch und führte zu einem Sedimentgehalt mit bis zu 457 g l-1 zu 3058 t Sediment, inklusive 53 t organischen Kohlenstoff und 5 t Stickstoff. Zusätzlich wurden die Daten der 36-tägigen Abflussmessung der rückschreitenden Rutschung auf 62 Tage, von 1. Juli bis 31. August auf alle 229 aktiven Rutschungen entlang der Yukon Küste hochgerechnet. Es wurde diskutiert, dass alle rückschreitenden Rutschungen entlang der Yukon Küste zusammen mindestens 1,4 Mio. m³ Sediment-Schmelzwasser während jeder Auftausaison freigeben. Diese enthalten ein Minimum von 172 000 t Sediment, 3119 t organischen Kohlenstoff, 327 t Stickstoff und 17 t gelösten organischen Kohlenstoff. Daher kann zusammengefasst werden, dass zusätzlich zur Küstenerosion von allen Rutschungen noch ein zusätzlicher Beitrag von 3 % Sediment und 8 % organischen Kohlenstoff in die Beaufort See eingetragen wird. Schließlich wurde die zukünftige Entwicklung dieser rückschreitenden Rutschungen bei einem Temperaturanstieg von 2-3 °C bis 2081-2100 diskutiert. Dies könnte zu einem Anstieg der Sediment-Schmelzwasser-Freigabe von 109-114 % führen. Es kann daraus geschlossen werden, dass rückschreitende Rutschungen sensibel auf Klimabedingungen reagieren und mit der Arktischen Erwärmung größere Mengen an auftauenden Permafrost (inklusive organischen Kohlenstoff und Stickstoff) in die Umwelt freigeben werden. KW - permafrost KW - arctic KW - Canada KW - coast KW - erosion KW - Permafrost KW - Arktik KW - Kanada KW - Küste KW - Erosion Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-397947 ER - TY - THES A1 - Muldashev, Iskander T1 - Modeling of the great earthquake seismic cycles T1 - Modellierung der seismischen Zyklen von Mega-Erdbeben N2 - The timing and location of the two largest earthquakes of the 21st century (Sumatra, 2004 and Tohoku 2011, events) greatly surprised the scientific community, indicating that the deformation processes that precede and follow great megathrust earthquakes remain enigmatic. During these phases before and after the earthquake a combination of multi-scale complex processes are acting simultaneously: Stresses built up by long-term tectonic motions are modified by sudden jerky deformations during earthquakes, before being restored by multiple ensuing relaxation processes. This thesis details a cross-scale thermomechanical model developed with the aim of simulating the entire subduction process from earthquake (1 minute) to million years’ time scale, excluding only rupture propagation. The model employs elasticity, non-linear transient viscous rheology, and rate-and-state friction. It generates spontaneous earthquake sequences, and, by using an adaptive time-step algorithm, recreates the deformation process as observed naturally over single and multiple seismic cycles. The model is thoroughly tested by comparing results to those from known high- resolution solutions of generic modeling setups widely used in modeling of rupture propagation. It is demonstrated, that while not modeling rupture propagation explicitly, the modeling procedure correctly recognizes the appearance of instability (earthquake) and correctly simulates the cumulative slip at a fault during great earthquake by means of a quasi-dynamic approximation. A set of 2D models is used to study the effects of non-linear transient rheology on the postseismic processes following great earthquakes. Our models predict that the viscosity in the mantle wedge drops by 3 to 4 orders of magnitude during a great earthquake with magnitude above 9. This drop in viscosity results in spatial scales and timings of the relaxation processes following the earthquakes that are significantly different to previous estimates. These models replicate centuries long seismic cycles exhibited by the greatest earthquakes (like the Great Chile 1960 Earthquake) and are consistent with the major features of postseismic surface displacements recorded after the Great Tohoku Earthquake. The 2D models are also applied to study key factors controlling maximum magnitudes of earthquakes in subduction zones. Even though methods of instrumentally observing earthquakes at subduction zones have rapidly improved in recent decades, the characteristic recurrence interval of giant earthquakes (Mw>8.5) is much larger than the currently available observational record and therefore the necessary conditions for giant earthquakes are not clear. Statistical studies have recognized the importance of the slab shape and its surface roughness, state of the strain of the upper plate and thickness of sediments filling the trenches. In this thesis we attempt to explain these observations and to identify key controlling parameters. We test a set of 2D models representing great earthquake seismic cycles at known subduction zones with various known geometries, megathrust friction coefficients, and convergence rates implemented. We found that low-angle subduction (large effect) and thick sediments in the subduction channel (smaller effect) are the fundamental necessary conditions for generating giant earthquakes, while the change of subduction velocity from 10 to 3.5 cm/yr has a lower effect. Modeling results also suggest that having thick sediments in the subduction channel causes low static friction, resulting in neutral or slightly compressive deformation in the overriding plate for low-angle subduction zones. These modeling results agree well with observations for the largest earthquakes. The model predicts the largest possible earthquakes for subduction zones of given dipping angles. The predicted maximum magnitudes exactly threshold magnitudes of all known giant earthquakes of 20th and 21st centuries. The clear limitation of most of the models developed in the thesis is their 2D nature. Development of 3D models with comparable resolution and complexity will require significant advances in numerical techniques. Nevertheless, we conducted a series of low-resolution 3D models to study the interaction between two large asperities at a subduction interface separated by an aseismic gap of varying width. The novelty of the model is that it considers behavior of the asperities during multiple seismic cycles. As expected, models show that an aseismic gap with a narrow width could not prevent rupture propagation from one asperity to another, and that rupture always crosses the entire model. When the gap becomes too wide, asperities do not interact anymore and rupture independently. However, an interesting mode of interaction was observed in the model with an intermediate width of the aseismic gap: In this model the asperities began to stably rupture in anti-phase following multiple seismic cycles. These 3D modeling results, while insightful, must be considered preliminary because of the limitations in resolution. The technique developed in this thesis for cross-scale modeling of seismic cycles can be used to study the effects of multiple seismic cycles on the long-term deformation of the upper plate. The technique can be also extended to the case of continental transform faults and for the advanced 3D modeling of specific subduction zones. This will require further development of numerical techniques and adaptation of the existing advanced highly scalable parallel codes like LAMEM and ASPECT. N2 - Zeitpunkt und Ort der zwei größten Erdbeben des 21. Jahrhunderts (Sumatra 2004 und Tohoku 2011) überraschten die wissenschaftliche Gemeinschaft, da sie darauf hindeuten, dass die einem Megathrust-Erdbeben vorangehenden und folgenden Deformationsprozesse weiterhin rästelhaft bleiben. Ein Problem ist die komplexe Art der Subduktionsprozesse auf unterschiedlichen Skalen. Spannungen werden durch langzeitliche, tektonische Bewegungen aufgebaut, von plötzlicher, ruckartiger Deformation während Erdbeben modifiziert und anschließend durch verschiedene Entspannungsprozesse wiederhergestellt. In dieser Arbeit wird ein skalen-übergreifendes thermomechanisches Modell entwickelt mit dem Ziel den vollständigen Subduktionsprozess von kleiner Skala (Minuten, z.B. Erdbeben) bis zu Millionen Jahren zu simulieren. Dabei bleibt nur das dynamische Prozess der unberücksichtigt. Das Modell nutzt Elastizität, nicht-lineare transient viskose Rheologie und „rate-and-state“ Reibungsgesetz. Es erzeugt spontane Erdbeben-Sequenzen und stellt durch das Nutzen eines adaptiven Zeitschritt Algorithmus den Deformationsprozess nach, wie er in der Natur während einzelner und mehrerer seismischer Zyklen beobachtet wird. Anhand der 2D-Modell Reihe werden die Effekte der nicht-linearen transient (viskosen) Rheologie auf postseismische Prozesse nach großen Erdbeben untersucht. Die Modelle sagen eine Verringerung der Mantelkeil-Viskosität um 3 bis 4 Größenordnungen während der großen Erdbeben (Mw > 9) vorher. Im Gegensatz zur momentanen Meinung, ergeben sich andere räumliche und zeitliche Verteilungen des Entspannungsprozesses nach großen Erdbeben. Jahrhunderte lange seismische Zyklen, wie zum Beispiel das große Erdbeben in Chile 1960, werden reproduziert und stimmen mit den Hauptmerkmalen der postseismischen Oberflächenverschiebungen überein, die nach dem großen Tohoku Erdbeben aufgezeichnet wurden. Mithilfe der 2D-Modelle werden außerdem Schlüsselfaktoren untersucht, die die maximale Magnitude von Erdbeben bestimmen. Obwohl die instrumentellen Methoden zur Beobachtung von Erdbeben in Subduktionszonen in den letzten Jahrzehnten stetig verbessert wurden, kann das Auftreten der größten Erdbeben (Mw > 8.5) und die dafür vorrauszusetzenden Bedingungen nicht genau bestimmt werden, da die charackeristische Zeit für ein Wiederauftreten deutlich größer als der Beobachtungszeitraum ist. Wir versuchen in dieser Arbeit diese Beobachtungen zu erklären und die kontrollierenden Schlüsselfaktoren zu bestimmen. Eine 2D-Modell Reihe mit großen, seismischen Erdbebenzyklen untersucht unterschiedliche Geometrien von Subduktionszonen sowie Reibungskoeffizieten an der Subduktions Platten-Grenzoberfläche und Konvergenzraten. Subduktion mit geringem Winkel (großer Effekt) und mächtige Sedimente im Subduktionskanal (kleiner Effekt) sind grundlegend notwendige Bedingungen für riesige Erdbeben, während eine Änderung des Reibungsparameters nur geringe Auswirkungen hat. Die Modellierungsergebnisse sind in viiÜbereinstimmung mit den Beobachtungen von den größten Erdbeben. Die maximale vohergesagte Magnituden liegen an der oberen Grenze alle historische Beben der 20. und 21. Jahrhunderden. Die größte Einschränkung der entwickelten Modelle ist ihre 2-dimensionale Natur. Um die Interaktion zwischen zwei großen Unebenheiten („asperities“) auf der Subduktions Platten-Grenzoberfläche, die von einer aseismischen Lücke („gap“) voneinander getrennt sind, zu untersuchen, wurde eine 3D-Modell Reihe mit geringer Auflösung durchgeführt. Neu an diesem Modell ist, dass das Verhalten der Unebenheiten während mehrerer seismischer Zyklen berücksichtigt wird. Wie erwartet zeigt das Modell, dass eine schmale, aseismische Lücke ein Propagieren von Brüchen von einer Unebenheit zur nächsten nicht verhindern kann und diese Brüche das gesamte Modell durchkreuzen. Wird die Lücke zu groß interagieren die Unebenheiten nicht mehr miteinander und brechen unabhängig voneinander. Allerdings wurde in dem Modell mit mittlerer Breite der aseismischen Lücke eine interessante Art von Interaktion beobachtet: Nach einigen seismischen Zyklen beginnen die Unebenheiten kontinuerlich und zwar in Gegen-Phasen zu brechen. Diese Ergebnisse sind andeutend, aber können aufgrund der geringen Auflösung des Models nur als vorläufig angesehen werden und erfordern weitere Bestätigung mit hoch-auflösenden Modellen. KW - earthquake modeling KW - seismic cycle modeling KW - subduction KW - numerical modeling KW - Erdbeben Modellierung KW - Modellierung des seismischen Zyklus KW - Subduktion KW - numerische Modellierung Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-398926 ER - TY - THES A1 - Horn, Juliane T1 - A modelling framework for exploration of a multidimensional factor causing decline in honeybee health BT - towards a better understanding how forage availability in agricultural landscapes affects honeybee colony persistence Y1 - 2017 ER - TY - THES A1 - Wolf, Julia T1 - Schadenserkennung in Beton durch Überwachung mit eingebetteten Ultraschallprüfköpfen T1 - Monitoring with embedded ultrasound sensors to detect damage in concrete N2 - Die zerstörungsfreien Prüfungen von Bauwerken mit Hilfe von Ultraschallmessverfahren haben in den letzten Jahren an Bedeutung gewonnen. Durch Ultraschallmessungen können die Geometrien von Bauteilen bestimmt sowie von außen nicht sichtbare Fehler wie Delaminationen und Kiesnester erkannt werden. Mit neuartigen, in das Betonbauteil eingebetteten Ultraschallprüfköpfen sollen nun Bauwerke dauerhaft auf Veränderungen überprüft werden. Dazu werden Ultraschallsignale direkt im Inneren eines Bauteils erzeugt, was die Möglichkeiten der herkömmlichen Methoden der Bauwerksüberwachung wesentlich erweitert. Ein Ultraschallverfahren könnte mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen ein Betonbauteil kontinuierlich integral überwachen und damit auch stetig fortschreitende Gefügeänderungen, wie beispielsweise Mikrorisse, registrieren. Sicherheitsrelevante Bauteile, die nach dem Einbau für Messungen unzugänglich oder mittels Ultraschall, beispielsweise durch zusätzliche Beschichtungen der Oberfläche, nicht prüfbar sind, lassen sich mit eingebetteten Prüfköpfen überwachen. An bereits vorhandenen Bauwerken können die Ultraschallprüfköpfe mithilfe von Bohrlöchern und speziellem Verpressmörtel auch nachträglich in das Bauteil integriert werden. Für Fertigbauteile bieten sich eingebettete Prüfköpfe zur Herstellungskontrolle sowie zur Überwachung der Baudurchführung als Werkzeug der Qualitätssicherung an. Auch die schnelle Schadensanalyse eines Bauwerks nach Naturkatastrophen, wie beispielsweise einem Erdbeben oder einer Flut, ist denkbar. Durch die gute Ankopplung ermöglichen diese neuartigen Prüfköpfe den Einsatz von empfindlichen Auswertungsmethoden, wie die Kreuzkorrelation, die Coda-Wellen-Interferometrie oder die Amplitudenauswertung, für die Signalanalyse. Bei regelmäßigen Messungen können somit sich anbahnende Schäden eines Bauwerks frühzeitig erkannt werden. Da die Schädigung eines Bauwerks keine direkt messbare Größe darstellt, erfordert eine eindeutige Schadenserkennung in der Regel die Messung mehrerer physikalischer Größen die geeignet verknüpft werden. Physikalische Größen können sein: Ultraschalllaufzeit, Amplitude des Ultraschallsignals und Umgebungstemperatur. Dazu müssen Korrelationen zwischen dem Zustand des Bauwerks, den Umgebungsbedingungen und den Parametern des gemessenen Ultraschallsignals untersucht werden. In dieser Arbeit werden die neuartigen Prüfköpfe vorgestellt. Es wird beschrieben, dass sie sich, sowohl in bereits errichtete Betonbauwerke als auch in der Konstruktion befindliche, einbauen lassen. Experimentell wird gezeigt, dass die Prüfköpfe in mehreren Ebenen eingebettet sein können da ihre Abstrahlcharakteristik im Beton nahezu ungerichtet ist. Die Mittenfrequenz von rund 62 kHz ermöglicht Abstände, je nach Betonart und SRV, von mindestens 3 m zwischen Prüfköpfen die als Sender und Empfänger arbeiten. Die Empfindlichkeit der eingebetteten Prüfköpfe gegenüber Veränderungen im Beton wird an Hand von zwei Laborexperimenten gezeigt, einem Drei-Punkt-Biegeversuch und einem Versuch zur Erzeugung von Frost-Tau-Wechsel Schäden. Die Ergebnisse werden mit anderen zerstörungsfreien Prüfverfahren verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Prüfköpfe durch die Anwendung empfindlicher Auswertemethoden, auftretende Risse im Beton detektieren, bevor diese eine Gefahr für das Bauwerk darstellen. Abschließend werden Beispiele von Installation der neuartigen Ultraschallprüfköpfe in realen Bauteilen, zwei Brücken und einem Fundament, gezeigt und basierend auf dort gewonnenen ersten Erfahrungen ein Konzept für die Umsetzung einer Langzeitüberwachung aufgestellt. N2 - The non-destructive testing of concrete structures with the ultrasound method has become increasingly important in recent years. With the ultrasound technique the geometry of concrete elements can be determined and defects can be detected which are not visible on the surface, such as delaminations and honeycombs. New ultrasound sensors were developed to monitor changes in concrete structures continuously and permanently. Those ultrasound sensors will be embedded into the concrete to transmit and receive ultrasound waves within the structure. This allows a new interpretation of the condition of a structure. The use of the embedded sensors expands the options of the traditional monitoring methods. The ultrasonic technique could monitor a voluminous part of a concrete structure continuously and integral with just a few strategically placed embedded ultrasound sensors and thus register small changes in the concretes texture. Vital parts of concrete structures which are inaccessible for the ultrasonic method after construction can be monitored with embedded sensors. Inaccessibility could be caused by a surface layered with a medium reflecting or absorbing the ultrasonic wave or by to much steel obstruct"-ing the waves path. The sensors can be embedded into existing structures using boreholes and grouting mortar or installed during construction and can thus serve as a tool for quality control. The quick damage evaluation of a construction after a natural disaster such as an earthquake or a flood, is conceivable as well. As the contact between the embedded sensors and the surrounding concrete is assumed as constant over a long time, highly sensitive signal evaluation tools, such as the cross correlation between signals, the Coda Wave Interferometry and the amplitude evaluation, can be used. Therefore, with regular measurements, damage in a construction can be detected at an early stage. But, the damage of a structure can not be measured directly. A distinct damage detection needs a quantity of measured parameters, such as time of flight and amplitude of the ultrasonic wave as well as temperature, which need to be linked to each other. To achieve this, correlations between the state of the concrete construction and those parameters of the measured ultrasonic signal must be investigated. In this work the newly developed ultrasound sensors are introduced. Their installation into a concrete structure is described. The sensors sensitivity to small changes in the concrete is investigated and compared to other Non Destructive Testing (NDT) methods. The highly sensitive signal evaluation tools proof to be particularly advantageous when using embedded sensors. Installations of embedded ultrasound sensors for long time monitoring of real constructions are presented. Based on the gained experience with those installations a concept is presented for the set up of a long time monitoring system. KW - Ultraschall KW - Beton KW - Überwachung KW - Prüfköpfe KW - Temperatur KW - Frost-Tau-Wechsel KW - Schaden KW - Riss KW - ultrasound KW - concrete KW - monitoring KW - sensors KW - temperature KW - Freeze-Thaw-Cycles KW - damage KW - crack Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-397363 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - López-Tarazón, José Andrés A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Petrow, Theresia ED - López-Tarazón, José Andrés ED - Bronstert, Axel ED - Thieken, Annegret ED - Petrow, Theresia T1 - International symposium on the effects of global change on floods, fluvial geomorphology and related hazards in mountainous rivers T2 - Book of Abstracts N2 - Both Alpine and Mediterranean areas are considered sensitive to so-called global change, considered as the combination of climate and land use changes. All panels on climate evolution predict future scenarios of increasing frequency and magnitude of floods which are likely to lead to huge geomorphic adjustments of river channels so major metamorphosis of fluvial systems is expected as a result of global change. Such pressures are likely to give rise to major ecological and economic changes and challenges that governments need to address as a matter of priority. Changes in river flow regimes associated with global change are therefore ushering in a new era, where there is a critical need to evaluate hydro-geomorphological hazards from headwaters to lowland areas (flooding can be not just a problem related to being under the water). A key question is how our understanding of these hazards associated with global change can be improved; improvement has to come from integrated research which includes the climatological and physical conditions that could influence the hydrology and sediment generation and hence the conveyance of water and sediments (including the river’s capacity, i.e. amount of sediment, and competence, i.e. channel deformation) and the vulnerabilities and economic repercussions of changing hydrological hazards (including the evaluation of the hydro-geomorphological risks too). Within this framework, the purpose of this international symposium is to bring together researchers from several disciplines as hydrology, fluvial geomorphology, hydraulic engineering, environmental science, geography, economy (and any other related discipline) to discuss the effects of global change over the river system in relation with floods. The symposium is organized by means of invited talks given by prominent experts, oral lectures, poster sessions and discussion sessions for each individual topic; it will try to improve our understanding of how rivers are likely to evolve as a result of global change and hence address the associated hazards of that fluvial environmental change concerning flooding. Four main topics are going to be addressed: - Modelling global change (i.e. climate and land-use) at relevant spatial (regional, local) and temporal (from the long-term to the single-event) scales. - Measuring and modelling river floods from the hydrological, sediment transport (both suspended and bedload) and channel morphology points of view at different spatial (from the catchment to the reach) and temporal (from the long-term to the single-event) scales. - Evaluation and assessment of current and future river flooding hazards and risks in a global change perspective. - Catchment management to face river floods in a changing world. We are very pleased to welcome you to Potsdam. We hope you will enjoy your participation at the International Symposium on the Effects of Global Change on Floods, Fluvial Geomorphology and Related Hazards in Mountainous Rivers and have an exciting and profitable experience. Finally, we would like to thank all speakers, participants, supporters, and sponsors for their contributions that for sure will make of this event a very remarkable and fruitful meeting. We acknowledge the valuable support of the European Commission (Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship, Project ‘‘Floodhazards’’, PIEF-GA-2013-622468, Seventh EU Framework Programme) and the Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft (Research Training Group “Natural Hazards and Risks in a Changing World” (NatRiskChange; GRK 2043/1) as the symposium would not have been possible without their help. Without your cooperation, this symposium would not be either possible or successful. KW - natural hazards KW - mountainous rivers KW - floods KW - global change KW - geomorphology Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-396922 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Purinton, Benjamin A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo T1 - Validation of digital elevation models (DEMs) and comparison of geomorphic metrics on the southern Central Andean Plateau N2 - In this study, we validate and compare elevation accuracy and geomorphic metrics of satellite-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) on the southern Central Andean Plateau. The plateau has an average elevation of 3.7 km and is characterized by diverse topography and relief, lack of vegetation, and clear skies that create ideal conditions for remote sensing. At 30m resolution, SRTM-C, ASTER GDEM2, stacked ASTER L1A stereopair DEM, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X have been analyzed. The higher-resolution datasets include 12m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X DEMs, and 5m ALOS World 3D. These DEMs are state of the art for optical (ASTER and ALOS) and radar (SRTM-C and TanDEM-X) spaceborne sensors. We assessed vertical accuracy by comparing standard deviations of the DEM elevation versus 307 509 differential GPS measurements across 4000m of elevation. For the 30m DEMs, the ASTER datasets had the highest vertical standard deviation at > 6.5 m, whereas the SRTM-C, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X were all < 3.5 m. Higher-resolution DEMs generally had lower uncertainty, with both the 12m TanDEM-X and 5m ALOSWorld 3D having < 2m vertical standard deviation. Analysis of vertical uncertainty with respect to terrain elevation, slope, and aspect revealed the low uncertainty across these attributes for SRTM-C (30 m), TanDEM-X (12–30 m), and ALOS World 3D (5–30 m). Single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X 10m DEMs and the 30m ASTER GDEM2 displayed slight aspect biases, which were removed in their stacked counterparts (TanDEM-X and ASTER Stack). Based on low vertical standard deviations and visual inspection alongside optical satellite data, we selected the 30m SRTM-C, 12–30m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, and 5m ALOS World 3D for geomorphic metric comparison in a 66 km2 catchment with a distinct river knickpoint. Consistent m=n values were found using chi plot channel profile analysis, regardless of DEM type and spatial resolution. Slope, curvature, and drainage area were calculated and plotting schemes were used to assess basin-wide differences in the hillslope-to-valley transition related to the knickpoint. While slope and hillslope length measurements vary little between datasets, curvature displays higher magnitude measurements with fining resolution. This is especially true for the optical 5m ALOS World 3D DEM, which demonstrated high-frequency noise in 2–8 pixel steps through a Fourier frequency analysis. The improvements in accurate space-radar DEMs (e.g., TanDEM-X) for geomorphometry are promising, but airborne or terrestrial data are still necessary for meter-scale analysis. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 338 Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-396277 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Purinton, Benjamin A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo T1 - Validation of digital elevation models (DEMs) and comparison of geomorphic metrics on the southern Central Andean Plateau JF - Earth surface dynamics N2 - In this study, we validate and compare elevation accuracy and geomorphic metrics of satellite-derived digital elevation models (DEMs) on the southern Central Andean Plateau. The plateau has an average elevation of 3.7 km and is characterized by diverse topography and relief, lack of vegetation, and clear skies that create ideal conditions for remote sensing. At 30m resolution, SRTM-C, ASTER GDEM2, stacked ASTER L1A stereopair DEM, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X have been analyzed. The higher-resolution datasets include 12m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X DEMs, and 5m ALOS World 3D. These DEMs are state of the art for optical (ASTER and ALOS) and radar (SRTM-C and TanDEM-X) spaceborne sensors. We assessed vertical accuracy by comparing standard deviations of the DEM elevation versus 307 509 differential GPS measurements across 4000m of elevation. For the 30m DEMs, the ASTER datasets had the highest vertical standard deviation at > 6.5 m, whereas the SRTM-C, ALOS World 3D, and TanDEM-X were all < 3.5 m. Higher-resolution DEMs generally had lower uncertainty, with both the 12m TanDEM-X and 5m ALOSWorld 3D having < 2m vertical standard deviation. Analysis of vertical uncertainty with respect to terrain elevation, slope, and aspect revealed the low uncertainty across these attributes for SRTM-C (30 m), TanDEM-X (12–30 m), and ALOS World 3D (5–30 m). Single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X 10m DEMs and the 30m ASTER GDEM2 displayed slight aspect biases, which were removed in their stacked counterparts (TanDEM-X and ASTER Stack). Based on low vertical standard deviations and visual inspection alongside optical satellite data, we selected the 30m SRTM-C, 12–30m TanDEM-X, 10m single-CoSSC TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X, and 5m ALOS World 3D for geomorphic metric comparison in a 66 km2 catchment with a distinct river knickpoint. Consistent m=n values were found using chi plot channel profile analysis, regardless of DEM type and spatial resolution. Slope, curvature, and drainage area were calculated and plotting schemes were used to assess basin-wide differences in the hillslope-to-valley transition related to the knickpoint. While slope and hillslope length measurements vary little between datasets, curvature displays higher magnitude measurements with fining resolution. This is especially true for the optical 5m ALOS World 3D DEM, which demonstrated high-frequency noise in 2–8 pixel steps through a Fourier frequency analysis. The improvements in accurate space-radar DEMs (e.g., TanDEM-X) for geomorphometry are promising, but airborne or terrestrial data are still necessary for meter-scale analysis. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esurf-5-211-2017 SN - 2196-632X SN - 2196-6311 VL - 5 IS - 2 SP - 211 EP - 237 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Didovets, Iulii A1 - Lobanova, Anastasia A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Snizhko, Sergiy A1 - Maule, Cathrine Fox A1 - Krysanova, Valentina T1 - Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling N2 - The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 323 KW - Ukraine KW - climate change impact KW - river discharge KW - Samara KW - Teteriv KW - Western Bug KW - runoff KW - SWIM KW - IMPRESSIONS Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-394956 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Didovets, Iulii A1 - Lobanova, Anastasia A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Snizhko, Sergiy A1 - Maule, Cathrine Fox A1 - Krysanova, Valentina T1 - Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Three Representative Ukrainian Catchments Using Eco-Hydrological Modelling JF - Water N2 - The information about climate change impact on river discharge is vitally important for planning adaptation measures. The future changes can affect different water-related sectors. The main goal of this study was to investigate the potential water resource changes in Ukraine, focusing on three mesoscale river catchments (Teteriv, UpperWestern Bug, and Samara) characteristic for different geographical zones. The catchment scale watershed model—Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM)—was setup, calibrated, and validated for the three catchments under consideration. A set of seven GCM-RCM (General Circulation Model-Regional Climate Model) coupled climate scenarios corresponding to RCPs (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5 were used to drive the hydrological catchment model. The climate projections, used in the study, were considered as three combinations of low, intermediate, and high end scenarios. Our results indicate the shifts in the seasonal distribution of runoff in all three catchments. The spring high flow occurs earlier as a result of temperature increases and earlier snowmelt. The fairly robust trend is an increase in river discharge in the winter season, and most of the scenarios show a potential decrease in river discharge in the spring. KW - Ukraine KW - climate change impact KW - river discharge KW - Samara KW - Teteriv KW - Western Bug KW - runoff KW - SWIM KW - IMPRESSIONS Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w9030204 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 9 IS - 3 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - THES A1 - Kellermann, Patric T1 - Assessing natural risks for railway infrastructure and transportation in Austria T1 - Bewertung von Naturrisiken für Eisenbahninfrastruktur und -betrieb in Österreich N2 - Natural hazards can have serious societal and economic impacts. Worldwide, around one third of economic losses due to natural hazards are attributable to floods. The majority of natural hazards are triggered by weather-related extremes such as heavy precipitation, rapid snow melt, or extreme temperatures. Some of them, and in particular floods, are expected to further increase in terms of frequency and/or intensity in the coming decades due to the impacts of climate change. In this context, the European Alps areas are constantly disclosed as being particularly sensitive. In order to enhance the resilience of societies to natural hazards, risk assessments are substantial as they can deliver comprehensive risk information to be used as a basis for effective and sustainable decision-making in natural hazards management. So far, current assessment approaches mostly focus on single societal or economic sectors – e.g. flood damage models largely concentrate on private-sector housing – and other important sectors, such as the transport infrastructure sector, are widely neglected. However, transport infrastructure considerably contributes to economic and societal welfare, e.g. by ensuring mobility of people and goods. In Austria, for example, the national railway network is essential for the European transit of passengers and freights as well as for the development of the complex Alpine topography. Moreover, a number of recent experiences show that railway infrastructure and transportation is highly vulnerable to natural hazards. As a consequence, the Austrian Federal Railways had to cope with economic losses on the scale of several million euros as a result of flooding and other alpine hazards. The motivation of this thesis is to contribute to filling the gap of knowledge about damage to railway infrastructure caused by natural hazards by providing new risk information for actors and stakeholders involved in the risk management of railway transportation. Hence, in order to support the decision-making towards a more effective and sustainable risk management, the following two shortcomings in natural risks research are approached: i) the lack of dedicated models to estimate flood damage to railway infrastructure, and ii) the scarcity of insights into possible climate change impacts on the frequency of extreme weather events with focus on future implications for railway transportation in Austria. With regard to flood impacts to railway infrastructure, the empirically derived damage model Railway Infrastructure Loss (RAIL) proved expedient to reliably estimate both structural flood damage at exposed track sections of the Northern Railway and resulting repair cost. The results show that the RAIL model is capable of identifying flood risk hot spots along the railway network and, thus, facilitates the targeted planning and implementation of (technical) risk reduction measures. However, the findings of this study also show that the development and validation of flood damage models for railway infrastructure is generally constrained by the continuing lack of detailed event and damage data. In order to provide flood risk information on the large scale to support strategic flood risk management, the RAIL model was applied for the Austrian Mur River catchment using three different hydraulic scenarios as input as well as considering an increased risk aversion of the railway operator. Results indicate that the model is able to deliver comprehensive risk information also on the catchment level. It is furthermore demonstrated that the aspect of risk aversion can have marked influence on flood damage estimates for the study area and, hence, should be considered with regard to the development of risk management strategies. Looking at the results of the investigation on future frequencies of extreme weather events jeopardizing railway infrastructure and transportation in Austria, it appears that an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves has to be expected, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of extremes are rather sensitive to changes of the underlying thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, and — if needed — to adapt the thresholds that are used to detect and forecast meteorological extremes. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a prerequisite. Overall, the findings of the research presented in this thesis agree on the necessity to improve event and damage documentation procedures in order to enable the acquisition of comprehensive and reliable risk information via risk assessments and, thus, support strategic natural hazards management of railway infrastructure and transportation. N2 - Naturgefahren haben zum Teil gravierende Auswirkungen auf die Gesellschaft und die Wirtschaft der betroffenen Region. Weltweit sind etwa ein Drittel der finanziellen Verluste durch Naturereignisse auf Hochwasser zurückzuführen. Die Schäden an Eisenbahninfrastruktur haben dabei oft großen Anteil am Gesamtschaden. Hochwasser und andere Naturgefahren werden häufig durch Extremwetterereignisse, wie etwa Starkniederschläge oder Extremtemperaturen, ausgelöst. Im Zuge des Klimawandels rechnet man für die kommenden Jahrzehnte mit einer Zunahme in der Anzahl bzw. der Schwere einiger Naturereignisse. Mit dem Ziel, die gesellschaftliche Widerstandsfähigkeit gegenüber Naturereignissen zu erhöhen, setzt man zur Gewinnung von Risikoinformationen auf sogenannte Naturrisikoanalysen. Die gegenwärtige Praxis konzentriert sich dabei meist auf die Analyse für einzelne Wirtschaftssektoren, wie etwa den Immobiliensektor. Der Transportsektor und insbesondere die Eisenbahninfrastruktur werden trotz der tragenden Rollen für die Wirtschaftskraft einer Gesellschaft jedoch weitgehend vernachlässigt. Zahlreiche Naturereignisse der letzten Jahrzehnte zeigten allerdings, dass Eisenbahninfrastruktur generell sehr schadensanfällig gegenüber Naturgefahren ist. Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit ist es, das Management von Naturgefahren für den Schienensektor in Österreich durch die Bereitstellung von neuen Risikoinformationen zu unterstützen. Hierzu wurde zum einen ein neuartiges Schadenmodell zur Schätzung von Hochwasserschäden an Eisenbahninfrastruktur entwickelt. Zum anderen wurde unter Verwendung von regionalen Klimamodellen die klimawandelbedingte Änderung der Häufigkeiten von Extremwetter¬ereignissen in Österreich untersucht und mögliche Auswirkungen auf den Eisenbahnbetrieb abgeleitet. Die Forschungsergebnisse zeigen, dass das entwickelte Hochwasserschadenmodell „RAIL“ in der Lage ist, potenzielle Schadenschwerpunkte entlang von Bahnlinien für großräumige Eisenbahnnetze zu identifizieren und damit einen wertvollen Beitrag für die gezielte Planung und Errichtung von technischen Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen leisten kann. Ferner liefert die Untersuchung der Häufigkeitsentwicklung von Extremwetterereignissen bis zum Jahr 2040 wichtige Einblicke in die zukünftigen Herausforderungen für den Bahnbetrieb im Kontext des Klimawandels. Um aus zukünftigen Naturereignissen lernen zu können und somit ein tieferes Verständnis von Naturgefahrenprozessen und deren Auswirkungen auf Eisenbahninfrastruktur und –betrieb zu erlangen, wird die (Weiter-)Entwicklung und Anwendung von standardisierten Ereignis- und Schadendokumentationsverfahren empfohlen. KW - natural risks KW - damage modeling KW - railway infrastructure KW - Naturrisiken KW - Schadensmodellierung KW - Eisenbahninfrastruktur Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-103877 ER -