TY - GEN A1 - Lu, Yong-Ping A1 - Reichetzeder, Christoph A1 - Prehn, Cornelia A1 - von Websky, Karoline A1 - Slowinski, Torsten A1 - Chen, You-Peng A1 - Yin, Liang-Hong A1 - Kleuser, Burkhard A1 - Yang, Xue-Song A1 - Adamski, Jerzy A1 - Hocher, Berthold T1 - Fetal serum metabolites are independently associated with Gestational diabetes mellitus T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background/Aims: Gestational diabetes (GDM) might be associated with alterations in the metabolomic profile of affected mothers and their offspring. Until now, there is a paucity of studies that investigated both, the maternal and the fetal serum metabolome in the setting of GDM. Mounting evidence suggests that the fetus is not just passively affected by gestational disease but might play an active role in it. Metabolomic studies performed in maternal blood and fetal cord blood could help to better discern distinct fetal from maternal disease interactions. Methods: At the time of birth, serum samples from mothers and newborns (cord blood samples) were collected and screened for 163 metabolites utilizing tandem mass spectrometry. The cohort consisted of 412 mother/child pairs, including 31 cases of maternal GDM. Results: An initial non-adjusted analysis showed that eight metabolites in the maternal blood and 54 metabolites in the cord blood were associated with GDM. After Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) procedure and adjustment for confounding factors for GDM, fetal phosphatidylcholine acyl-alkyl C 32:1 and proline still showed an independent association with GDM. Conclusions: This study found metabolites in cord blood which were associated with GDM, even after adjustment for established risk factors of GDM. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating an independent association between fetal serum metabolites and maternal GDM. Our findings might suggest a potential effect of the fetal metabolome on maternal GDM. (c) 2018 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 637 KW - Gestational diabetes KW - metabolomics KW - phosphatidylcholine acyl-alkyl C 32:1 KW - proline Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424585 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 637 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Unterberger, Christian A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Schroeer, Katharina A1 - Steininger, Karl W. T1 - Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements BT - an assessment for Austria T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 634 KW - climate change KW - adaptation KW - flood risk KW - insurance KW - public sector KW - risk reduction Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424629 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 634 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schrön, Martin A1 - Köhli, Markus A1 - Scheiffele, Lena A1 - Iwema, Joost A1 - Bogena, Heye R. A1 - Lv, Ling A1 - Martini, Edoardo A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Rosolem, Rafael A1 - Weimar, Jannis A1 - Mai, Juliane A1 - Cuntz, Matthias A1 - Rebmann, Corinna A1 - Oswald, Sascha A1 - Dietrich, Peter A1 - Schmidt, Ulrich A1 - Zacharias, Steffen T1 - Improving calibration and validation of cosmic-ray neutron sensors in the light of spatial sensitivity T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - In the last few years the method of cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) has gained popularity among hydrologists, physicists, and land-surface modelers. The sensor provides continuous soil moisture data, averaged over several hectares and tens of decimeters in depth. However, the signal still may contain unidentified features of hydrological processes, and many calibration datasets are often required in order to find reliable relations between neutron intensity and water dynamics. Recent insights into environmental neutrons accurately described the spatial sensitivity of the sensor and thus allowed one to quantify the contribution of individual sample locations to the CRNS signal. Consequently, data points of calibration and validation datasets are suggested to be averaged using a more physically based weighting approach. In this work, a revised sensitivity function is used to calculate weighted averages of point data. The function is different from the simple exponential convention by the extraordinary sensitivity to the first few meters around the probe, and by dependencies on air pressure, air humidity, soil moisture, and vegetation. The approach is extensively tested at six distinct monitoring sites: two sites with multiple calibration datasets and four sites with continuous time series datasets. In all cases, the revised averaging method improved the performance of the CRNS products. The revised approach further helped to reveal hidden hydrological processes which otherwise remained unexplained in the data or were lost in the process of overcalibration. The presented weighting approach increases the overall accuracy of CRNS products and will have an impact on all their applications in agriculture, hydrology, and modeling. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 636 KW - forested headwater catchment KW - moisture observing system KW - soil-water content KW - parameterization methods KW - scale KW - field KW - dynamics KW - observatories KW - networks Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419134 IS - 636 SP - 5009 EP - 5030 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Loritz, Ralf A1 - Hassler, Sibylle K. A1 - Jackisch, Conrad A1 - Allroggen, Niklas A1 - van Schaik, Loes A1 - Wienhöfer, Jan A1 - Zehe, Erwin T1 - Picturing and modeling catchments by representative hillslopes T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - This study explores the suitability of a single hillslope as a parsimonious representation of a catchment in a physically based model. We test this hypothesis by picturing two distinctly different catchments in perceptual models and translating these pictures into parametric setups of 2-D physically based hillslope models. The model parametrizations are based on a comprehensive field data set, expert knowledge and process-based reasoning. Evaluation against streamflow data highlights that both models predicted the annual pattern of streamflow generation as well as the hydrographs acceptably. However, a look beyond performance measures revealed deficiencies in streamflow simulations during the summer season and during individual rainfall-runoff events as well as a mismatch between observed and simulated soil water dynamics. Some of these shortcomings can be related to our perception of the systems and to the chosen hydrological model, while others point to limitations of the representative hillslope concept itself. Nevertheless, our results confirm that representative hillslope models are a suitable tool to assess the importance of different data sources as well as to challenge our perception of the dominant hydrological processes we want to represent therein. Consequently, these models are a promising step forward in the search for the optimal representation of catchments in physically based models. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 635 KW - soil-moisture dynamics KW - hydrologic-response simulation KW - rainfall-runoff response KW - preferential flow KW - subsurface stormflow KW - water-uptake KW - field-scale KW - transport KW - system KW - basin Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419082 IS - 635 SP - 1225 EP - 1249 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Puppe, Daniel A1 - Höhn, Axel A1 - Kaczorek, Danuta A1 - Wanner, Manfred A1 - Wehrhan, Marc A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - How big is the influence of biogenic silicon pools on short-term changes in water-soluble silicon in soils? BT - Implications from a study of a 10-year-old soil–plant system T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The significance of biogenic silicon (BSi) pools as a key factor for the control of Si fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems has been recognized for decades. However, while most research has been focused on phytogenic Si pools, knowledge of other BSi pools is still limited. We hypothesized that different BSi pools influence short-term changes in the water-soluble Si fraction in soils to different extents. To test our hypothesis we took plant (Calamagrostis epigejos, Phragmites australis) and soil samples in an artificial catchment in a post-mining landscape in the state of Brandenburg, Germany. We quantified phytogenic (phytoliths), protistic (diatom frustules and testate amoeba shells) and zoogenic (sponge spicules) Si pools as well as Tironextractable and water-soluble Si fractions in soils at the beginning (t(0)) and after 10 years (t(10)) of ecosystem development. As expected the results of Tiron extraction showed that there are no consistent changes in the amorphous Si pool at Chicken Creek (Huhnerwasser) as early as after 10 years. In contrast to t(0) we found increased water-soluble Si and BSi pools at t(10); thus we concluded that BSi pools are the main driver of short-term changes in water-soluble Si. However, because total BSi represents only small proportions of water-soluble Si at t(0) (< 2 %) and t(10) (2.8-4.3 %) we further concluded that smaller (< 5 mu m) and/or fragile phytogenic Si structures have the biggest impact on short-term changes in water-soluble Si. In this context, extracted phytoliths (> 5 mu m) only amounted to about 16% of total Si con-tents of plant materials of C. epigejos and P. australis at t(10); thus about 84% of small-scale and/or fragile phytogenic Si is not quantified by the used phytolith extraction method. Analyses of small-scale and fragile phytogenic Si structures are urgently needed in future work as they seem to represent the biggest and most reactive Si pool in soils. Thus they are the most important drivers of Si cycling in terrestrial biogeosystems. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 633 KW - brook experimental forest KW - protozoic Si pool KW - testate amebas KW - biochemical cycle KW - temperate forest KW - amorphous silica KW - dissolution KW - carbon KW - phytoliths KW - surface Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-417141 IS - 633 SP - 5239 EP - 5252 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pourteau, Amaury A1 - Scherer, Erik E. A1 - Schorn, Simon A1 - Bast, Rebecca A1 - Schmidt, Alexander A1 - Ebert, Lisa T1 - Thermal evolution of an ancient subduction interface revealed by Lu–Hf garnet geochronology, Halilbağı Complex (Anatolia) T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The thermal structure of subduction zones exerts a major influence on deep-seated mechanical and chemical processes controlling arc magmatism, seismicity, and global element cycles. Accretionary complexes exposed inland may comprise tectonic blocks with contrasting pressure-temperature (P-T) histories, making it possible to investigate the dynamics and thermal evolution of former subduction interfaces. With this aim, we present new Lu-Hf geochronological results for mafic rocks of the Halilbagi Complex (Anatolia) that evolved along different thermal gradients. Samples include a lawsonite-epidote blueschist, a lawsonite-epidote eclogite, and an epidote eclogite (all with counter-clockwise P-T paths), a prograde lawsonite blueschist with a "hairpin"-type P-T path, and a garnet amphibolite from the overlying sub-ophiolitic metamorphic sole. Equilibrium phase diagrams suggest that the garnet amphibolite formed at similar to 0.6-0.7 GPa and 800-850 degrees C, whereas the prograde lawsonite blueschist records burial from 2.1 GPa and 420 degrees C to 2.6 GPa and 520 degrees C. Well-defined Lu-Hf isochrons were obtained for the epidote eclogite (92.38 +/- 0.22 Ma) and the lawsonite-epidote blueschist (90.19 +/- 0.54 Ma), suggesting rapid garnet growth. The lawsonite-epidote eclogite (87.30 +/- 0.39 Ma) and the prograde lawsonite blueschist (ca. 86 Ma) are younger, whereas the garnet amphibolite (104.5 +/- 3.5 Ma) is older. Our data reveal a consistent trend of progressively decreasing geothermal gradient from granulite-facies conditions at similar to 104 Ma to the epidote-eclogite facies around 92 Ma, and the lawsonite blueschist-facies between 90 Ma and 86 Ma. Three Lu-Hf garnet dates (between 92 Ma and 87 Ma) weighted toward the growth of post-peak rims (as indicated by Lu distribution in garnet) suggest that the HP/LT rocks were exhumed continuously and not episodically. We infer that HP/LT metamorphic rocks within the Halilbagi Complex were subjected to continuous return flow, with "warm" rocks being exhumed during the tectonic burial of "cold" ones. Our results, combined with regional geological constraints, allow us to speculate that subduction started at a transform fault near a mid-oceanic spreading centre. Following its formation, this ancient subduction interface evolved thermally over more than 15 Myr, most likely as a result of heat dissipation rather than crustal underplating. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 632 KW - subduction KW - Lu/Hf dating of garnet KW - metamorphic sole KW - eclogite KW - blueschist KW - lawsonite Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424651 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 632 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Beaumont, Robin N. A1 - Warrington, Nicole M. A1 - Cavadino, Alana A1 - Tyrrell, Jessica A1 - Nodzenski, Michael A1 - Horikoshi, Momoko A1 - Geller, Frank A1 - Myhre, Ronny A1 - Richmond, Rebecca C. A1 - Paternoster, Lavinia A1 - Bradfield, Jonathan P. A1 - Kreiner-Møller, Eskil A1 - Huikari, Ville A1 - Metrustry, Sarah A1 - Lunetta, Kathryn L. A1 - Painter, Jodie N. A1 - Hottenga, Jouke-Jan A1 - Allard, Catherine A1 - Barton, Sheila J. A1 - Espinosa, Ana A1 - Marsh, Julie A. A1 - Potter, Catherine A1 - Zhang, Ge A1 - Ang, Wei A1 - Berry, Diane J. A1 - Bouchard, Luigi A1 - Das, Shikta A1 - Hakonarson, Hakon A1 - Heikkinen, Jani A1 - Helgeland, Øyvind A1 - Hocher, Berthold A1 - Hofman, Albert A1 - Inskip, Hazel M. A1 - Jones, Samuel E. A1 - Kogevinas, Manolis A1 - Lind, Penelope A. A1 - Marullo, Letizia A1 - Medland, Sarah E. A1 - Murray, Anna A1 - Murray, Jeffrey C. A1 - Njølstad, Pa ̊l R. A1 - Nohr, Ellen A. A1 - Reichetzeder, Christoph A1 - Ring, Susan M. A1 - Ruth, Katherine S. A1 - Santa-Marina, Loreto A1 - Scholtens, Denise M. A1 - Sebert, Sylvain A1 - Sengpiel, Verena A1 - Tuke, Marcus A. A1 - Vaudel, Marc A1 - Weedon, Michael N. A1 - Willemsen, Gonneke A1 - Wood, Andrew R. A1 - Yaghootkar, Hanieh A1 - Muglia, Louis J. A1 - Bartels, Meike A1 - Relton, Caroline L. A1 - Pennell, Craig E. A1 - Chatzi, Leda A1 - Estivill, Xavier A1 - Holloway, John W. A1 - Boomsma, Dorret I. A1 - Montgomery, Grant W. A1 - Murabito, Joanne M. A1 - Spector, Tim D. A1 - Power, Christine A1 - Ja ̈rvelin, Marjo-Ritta A1 - Bisgaard, Hans A1 - Grant, Struan F.A. A1 - Sørensen, Thorkild I.A. A1 - Jaddoe, Vincent W. A1 - Jacobsson, Bo A1 - Melbye, Mads A1 - McCarthy, Mark I. A1 - Hattersley, Andrew T. A1 - Hayes, M. Geoffrey A1 - Frayling, Timothy M. A1 - Hivert, Marie-France A1 - Felix, Janine F. A1 - Hyppo ̈nen, Elina A1 - Lowe, William L. , Jr A1 - Evans, David M. A1 - Lawlor, Debbie A. A1 - Feenstra, Bjarke A1 - Freathy, Rachel M. T1 - Genome-wide association study of offspring birth weight in 86 577 women identifies five novel loci and highlights maternal genetic effects that are independent of fetal genetics T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Genome-wide association studies of birth weight have focused on fetal genetics, whereas relatively little is known about the role of maternal genetic variation. We aimed to identify maternal genetic variants associated with birth weight that could highlight potentially relevant maternal determinants of fetal growth. We meta-analysed data on up to 8.7 million SNPs in up to 86 577 women of European descent from the Early Growth Genetics (EGG) Consortium and the UK Biobank. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) and analyses of mother–child pairs to quantify the separate maternal and fetal genetic effects. Maternal SNPs at 10 loci (MTNR1B, HMGA2, SH2B3, KCNAB1, L3MBTL3, GCK, EBF1, TCF7L2, ACTL9, CYP3A7) were associated with offspring birth weight at P < 5 Â 10 À8 . In SEM analyses, at least 7 of the 10 associations were consistent with effects of the maternal genotype acting via the intrauterine environment, rather than via effects of shared alleles with the fetus. Variants, or correlated proxies, at many of the loci had been previously associated with adult traits, including fasting glucose (MTNR1B, GCK and TCF7L2) and sex hormone levels (CYP3A7), and one (EBF1) with gestational duration. The identified associations indicate that genetic effects on maternal glucose, cytochrome P450 activity and gestational duration, and potentially on maternal blood pressure and immune function, are relevant for fetal growth. Further characterization of these associations in mechanistic and causal analyses will enhance understanding of the potentially modifiable maternal determinants of fetal growth, with the goal of reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with low and high birth weights. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 628 KW - alleles KW - birth weight KW - fetus KW - genotype KW - mothers KW - single nucleotide polymorphism KW - genetics KW - duration of gestation KW - genome-wide association study KW - offspring KW - biobanks Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423100 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 628 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Lu, Yong-Ping A1 - Reichetzeder, Christoph A1 - Prehn, Cornelia A1 - Yin, Liang-Hong A1 - Yun, Chen A1 - Zeng, Shufei A1 - Chu, Chang A1 - Adamski, Jerzy A1 - Hocher, Berthold T1 - Cord blood Lysophosphatidylcholine 16:1 is positively associated with birth weight T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background/Aims: Impaired birth outcomes, like low birth weight, have consistently been associated with increased disease susceptibility to hypertension in later life. Alterations in the maternal or fetal metabolism might impact on fetal growth and influence birth outcomes. Discerning associations between the maternal and fetal metabolome and surrogate parameters of fetal growth could give new insight into the complex relationship between intrauterine conditions, birth outcomes, and later life disease susceptibility. Methods: Using flow injection tandem mass spectrometry, targeted metabolomics was performed in serum samples obtained from 226 mother/child pairs at delivery. Associations between neonatal birth weight and concentrations of 163 maternal and fetal metabolites were analyzed. Results: After FDR adjustment using the Benjamini-Hochberg procedure lysophosphatidylcholines (LPC) 14:0, 16:1, and 18:1 were strongly positively correlated with birth weight. In a stepwise linear regression model corrected for established confounding factors of birth weight, LPC 16: 1 showed the strongest independent association with birth weight (CI: 93.63 - 168.94; P = 6.94x10(-11)). The association with birth weight was stronger than classical confounding factors such as offspring sex (CI: - 258.81- -61.32; P = 0.002) and maternal smoking during pregnancy (CI: -298.74 - -29.51; P = 0.017). Conclusions: After correction for multiple testing and adjustment for potential confounders, LPC 16:1 showed a very strong and independent association with birth weight. The underlying molecular mechanisms linking fetal LPCs with birth weight need to be addressed in future studies. (c) 2018 The Author(s) Published by S. Karger AG, Basel T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 631 KW - metabolomics KW - Lysophosphatidylcholine KW - birth weight KW - DOHaD KW - hypertension KW - Type 2 Diabetes Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424566 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 631 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Non-linear intensification of Sahel rainfall as a possible dynamic response to future warming T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Projections of the response of Sahel rainfall to future global warming diverge significantly. Meanwhile, paleoclimatic records suggest that Sahel rainfall is capable of abrupt transitions in response to gradual forcing. Here we present climate modeling evidence for the possibility of an abrupt intensification of Sahel rainfall under future climate change. Analyzing 30 coupled global climate model simulations, we identify seven models where central Sahel rainfall increases by 40 to 300% over the 21st century, owing to a northward expansion of the West African monsoon domain. Rainfall in these models is non-linearly related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic and Mediterranean moisture source regions, intensifying abruptly beyond a certain SST warming level. We argue that this behavior is consistent with a self-amplifying dynamic-thermodynamical feedback, implying that the gradual increase in oceanic moisture availability under warming could trigger a sudden intensification of monsoon rainfall far inland of today's core monsoon region. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 630 KW - moisture-advection feedback KW - abrupt monsoon transitions KW - West African monsoon KW - CMIP5 KW - Holocene KW - climate KW - ocean KW - jet Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419114 IS - 630 SP - 495 EP - 505 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Acevedo, Walter A1 - Fallah, Bijan A1 - Reich, Sebastian A1 - Cubasch, Ulrich T1 - Assimilation of pseudo-tree-ring-width observations into an atmospheric general circulation model T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Paleoclimate data assimilation (DA) is a promising technique to systematically combine the information from climate model simulations and proxy records. Here, we investigate the assimilation of tree-ring-width (TRW) chronologies into an atmospheric global climate model using ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) techniques and a process-based tree-growth forward model as an observation operator. Our results, within a perfect-model experiment setting, indicate that the "online DA" approach did not outperform the "off-line" one, despite its considerable additional implementation complexity. On the other hand, it was observed that the nonlinear response of tree growth to surface temperature and soil moisture does deteriorate the operation of the time-averaged EnKF methodology. Moreover, for the first time we show that this skill loss appears significantly sensitive to the structure of the growth rate function, used to represent the principle of limiting factors (PLF) within the forward model. In general, our experiments showed that the error reduction achieved by assimilating pseudo-TRW chronologies is modulated by the magnitude of the yearly internal variability in themodel. This result might help the dendrochronology community to optimize their sampling efforts. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 627 KW - high resolution paleoclimatology KW - sparse proxy data KW - climate reconstructions KW - limiting factors KW - Kalman filter KW - co-limitation KW - ensemble KW - variability KW - reanalysis KW - framework Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418743 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 627 SP - 545 EP - 557 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Seibert, Mathias A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Apel, Heiko T1 - Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo Basin BT - a comparison of statistical methods T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Limpopo Basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts which affect the livelihood of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed using statistical approaches. Three methods (multiple linear models, artificial neural networks, random forest regression trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months of lead time. The following four main findings result from the study. 1. There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high inter-station differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated). 2. A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well-established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures and antecedent streamflow as a proxy of catchment conditions. El Nino and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42% explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments. 3. Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and random forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent nonlinear relationships. 4. Employed in early warning, the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them as complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 626 KW - sea-surface temperature KW - southern Africa KW - neural-network KW - summer rainfall KW - Atlantic-Ocean KW - river-basin KW - predictability KW - variability KW - prediction KW - climate Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418442 IS - 626 SP - 1611 EP - 1629 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Molnos, Sonja A1 - Mamdouh, Tarek A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Nocke, Thomas A1 - Weinkauf, Tino A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa. We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 625 KW - Southern-Hemisphere KW - variability KW - weather KW - driven KW - amplification KW - circulation KW - reanalysis KW - extremes KW - climate KW - summer Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419099 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 625 SP - 75 EP - 89 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schwanghart, Wolfgang A1 - Scherler, Dirk T1 - Bumps in river profiles BT - uncertainty assessment and smoothing using quantile regression techniques T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The analysis of longitudinal river profiles is an important tool for studying landscape evolution. However, characterizing river profiles based on digital elevation models (DEMs) suffers from errors and artifacts that particularly prevail along valley bottoms. The aim of this study is to characterize uncertainties that arise from the analysis of river profiles derived from different, near-globally available DEMs. We devised new algorithms quantile carving and the CRS algorithm - that rely on quantile regression to enable hydrological correction and the uncertainty quantification of river profiles. We find that globally available DEMs commonly overestimate river elevations in steep topography. The distributions of elevation errors become increasingly wider and right skewed if adjacent hillslope gradients are steep. Our analysis indicates that the AW3D DEM has the highest precision and lowest bias for the analysis of river profiles in mountainous topography. The new 12m resolution TanDEM-X DEM has a very low precision, most likely due to the combined effect of steep valley walls and the presence of water surfaces in valley bottoms. Compared to the conventional approaches of carving and filling, we find that our new approach is able to reduce the elevation bias and errors in longitudinal river profiles. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 624 KW - digital elevation model KW - drainage basins KW - DEM uncertainty KW - error KW - validation KW - SRTM KW - topography KW - resolution KW - terrain KW - geomorphometry Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419077 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 624 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Goychuk, Igor A1 - Kharchenko, Vasyl O. T1 - Rocking subdiffusive ratchets BT - origin, optimization and efficiency T2 - Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena N2 - We study origin, parameter optimization, and thermodynamic efficiency of isothermal rocking ratchets based on fractional subdiffusion within a generalized non-Markovian Langevin equation approach. A corresponding multi-dimensional Markovian embedding dynamics is realized using a set of auxiliary Brownian particles elastically coupled to the central Brownian particle (see video on the journal web site). We show that anomalous subdiffusive transport emerges due to an interplay of nonlinear response and viscoelastic effects for fractional Brownian motion in periodic potentials with broken space-inversion symmetry and driven by a time-periodic field. The anomalous transport becomes optimal for a subthreshold driving when the driving period matches a characteristic time scale of interwell transitions. It can also be optimized by varying temperature, amplitude of periodic potential and driving strength. The useful work done against a load shows a parabolic dependence on the load strength. It grows sublinearly with time and the corresponding thermodynamic efficiency decays algebraically in time because the energy supplied by the driving field scales with time linearly. However, it compares well with the efficiency of normal diffusion rocking ratchets on an appreciably long time scale. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 622 KW - anomalous Brownian motion KW - generalized Langevin equation KW - memory effects KW - viscoelasticity KW - ratchet transport KW - stochastic Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-416138 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 622 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rubey, Michael A1 - Brune, Sascha A1 - Heine, Christian A1 - Davies, D. Rhodri A1 - Williams, Simon E. A1 - Müller, R. Dietmar T1 - Global patterns in Earth’s dynamic topography since the Jurassic BT - the role of subducted slabs T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - We evaluate the spatial and temporal evolution of Earth's long-wavelength surface dynamic topography since the Jurassic using a series of high-resolution global mantle convection models. These models are Earth-like in terms of convective vigour, thermal structure, surface heat-flux and the geographic distribution of heterogeneity. The models generate a degree-2-dominated spectrum of dynamic topography with negative amplitudes above subducted slabs (i.e. circum-Pacific regions and southern Eurasia) and positive amplitudes elsewhere (i.e. Africa, north-western Eurasia and the central Pacific). Model predictions are compared with published observations and subsidence patterns from well data, both globally and for the Australian and southern African regions. We find that our models reproduce the long-wavelength component of these observations, although observed smaller-scale variations are not reproduced. We subsequently define "geodynamic rules" for how different surface tectonic settings are affected by mantle processes: (i) locations in the vicinity of a subduction zone show large negative dynamic topography amplitudes; (ii) regions far away from convergent margins feature long-term positive dynamic topography; and (iii) rapid variations in dynamic support occur along the margins of overriding plates (e.g. the western US) and at points located on a plate that rapidly approaches a subduction zone (e.g. India and the Arabia Peninsula). Our models provide a predictive quantitative framework linking mantle convection with plate tectonics and sedimentary basin evolution, thus improving our understanding of how subduction and mantle convection affect the spatio-temporal evolution of basin architecture. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 623 KW - spherical mantle convection KW - southern African plateau KW - vertical motion KW - sea-level KW - seismic tomography KW - models KW - surface KW - gravity KW - lithosphere KW - Australia Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418241 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 623 SP - 899 EP - 919 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gholamrezaie, Ershad A1 - Scheck-Wenderoth, Magdalena A1 - Sippel, Judith A1 - Strecker, Manfred T1 - Variability of the geothermal gradient across two differently aged magma-rich continental rifted margins of the Atlantic Ocean BT - the Southwest African and the Norwegian margins T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsadm : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The aim of this study is to investigate the shal- low thermal field differences for two differently aged pas- sive continental margins by analyzing regional variations in geothermal gradient and exploring the controlling factors for these variations. Hence, we analyzed two previously pub- lished 3-D conductive and lithospheric-scale thermal models of the Southwest African and the Norwegian passive mar- gins. These 3-D models differentiate various sedimentary, crustal, and mantle units and integrate different geophysi- cal data such as seismic observations and the gravity field. We extracted the temperature–depth distributions in 1 km intervals down to 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition. The geothermal gradient was then calculated for these intervals between the upper thermal boundary condi- tion and the respective depth levels (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 km below the upper thermal boundary condition). According to our results, the geothermal gradient decreases with increas- ing depth and shows varying lateral trends and values for these two different margins. We compare the 3-D geologi- cal structural models and the geothermal gradient variations for both thermal models and show how radiogenic heat pro- duction, sediment insulating effect, and thermal lithosphere– asthenosphere boundary (LAB) depth influence the shallow thermal field pattern. The results indicate an ongoing process of oceanic mantle cooling at the young Norwegian margin compared with the old SW African passive margin that seems to be thermally equilibrated in the present day. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 621 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418210 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 621 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Käch, Heidi A1 - Mathé-Hubert, Hugo A1 - Dennis, Alice B. A1 - Vorburger, Christoph T1 - Rapid evolution of symbiont-­mediated resistance compromises biological control of aphids by parasitoids T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - There is growing interest in biological control as a sustainable and environmentally friendly way to control pest insects. Aphids are among the most detrimental agricultural pests worldwide, and parasitoid wasps are frequently employed for their control. The use of asexual parasitoids may improve the effectiveness of biological control because only females kill hosts and because asexual populations have a higher growth rate than sexuals. However, asexuals may have a reduced capacity to track evolutionary change in their host populations. We used a factorial experiment to compare the ability of sexual and asexual populations of the parasitoid Lysiphlebus fabarum to control caged populations of black bean aphids (Aphis fabae) of high and low clonal diversity. The aphids came from a natural population, and one-­third of the aphid clones harbored Hamiltonella defensa, a heritable bacterial endosymbiont that increases resistance to parasitoids. We followed aphid and parasitoid population dynamics for 3 months but found no evidence that the reproductive mode of parasitoids affected their effectiveness as biocontrol agents, independent of host clonal diversity. Parasitoids failed to control aphids in most cases, because their introduction resulted in strong selection for clones protected by H. defensa. The increasingly resistant aphid populations escaped control by parasitoids, and we even observed parasitoid extinctions in many cages. The rapid evolution of symbiont-­conferred resistance in turn imposed selection on parasitoids. In cages where asexual parasitoids persisted until the end of the experiment, they became dominated by a single genotype able to overcome the protection provided by H. defensa. Thus, there was evidence for parasitoid counteradaptation, but it was generally too slow for parasitoids to regain control over aphid populations. It appears that when pest aphids possess defensive symbionts, the presence of parasitoid genotypes able to overcome symbiont-­conferred resistance is more important for biocontrol success than their reproductive mode. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 620 KW - aphids KW - Aphis fabae KW - biological control KW - defensive symbiosis KW - Hamiltonella defensa KW - Lysiphlebus fabarum KW - parasitoid KW - resistance Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423542 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 620 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sharma, Niharika A1 - Dang, Trang Minh A1 - Singh, Namrata A1 - Ruzicic, Slobodan A1 - Müller-Röber, Bernd A1 - Baumann, Ute A1 - Heuer, Sigrid T1 - Allelic variants of OsSUB1A cause differential expression of transcription factor genes in response to submergence in rice T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background: Flooding during seasonal monsoons affects millions of hectares of rice-cultivated areas across Asia. Submerged rice plants die within a week due to lack of oxygen, light and excessive elongation growth to escape the water. Submergence tolerance was first reported in an aus-type rice landrace, FR13A, and the ethylene-responsive transcription factor (TF) gene SUB1A-1 was identified as the major tolerance gene. Intolerant rice varieties generally lack the SUB1A gene but some intermediate tolerant varieties, such as IR64, carry the allelic variant SUB1A-2. Differential effects of the two alleles have so far not been addressed. As a first step, we have therefore quantified and compared the expression of nearly 2500 rice TF genes between IR64 and its derived tolerant near isogenic line IR64-Sub1, which carries the SUB1A-1 allele. Gene expression was studied in internodes, where the main difference in expression between the two alleles was previously shown. Results: Nineteen and twenty-six TF genes were identified that responded to submergence in IR64 and IR64-Sub1, respectively. Only one gene was found to be submergence-responsive in both, suggesting different regulatory pathways under submergence in the two genotypes. These differentially expressed genes (DEGs) mainly included MYB, NAC, TIFY and Zn-finger TFs, and most genes were downregulated upon submergence. In IR64, but not in IR64-Sub1, SUB1B and SUB1C, which are also present in the Sub1 locus, were identified as submergence responsive. Four TFs were not submergence responsive but exhibited constitutive, genotype-specific differential expression. Most of the identified submergence responsive DEGs are associated with regulatory hormonal pathways, i.e. gibberellins (GA), abscisic acid (ABA), and jasmonic acid (JA), apart from ethylene. An in-silico promoter analysis of the two genotypes revealed the presence of allele-specific single nucleotide polymorphisms, giving rise to ABRE, DRE/CRT, CARE and Site II cis-elements, which can partly explain the observed differential TF gene expression. Conclusion: This study identified new gene targets with the potential to further enhance submergence tolerance in rice and provides insights into novel aspects of SUB1A-mediated tolerance. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 619 KW - submergence tolerance KW - SUB1A KW - rice KW - transcription factors Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423508 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 619 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bukowski, Alexandra R. A1 - Schittko, Conrad A1 - Petermann, Jana S. T1 - The strength of negative plant–soil feedback increases from the intraspecific to the interspecific and the functional group level T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - One of the processes that may play a key role in plant species coexistence and ecosystem functioning is plant–soil feedback, the effect of plants on associated soil communities and the resulting feedback on plant performance. Plant–soil feedback at the interspecific level (comparing growth on own soil with growth on soil from different species) has been studied extensively, while plant–soil feedback at the intraspecific level (comparing growth on own soil with growth on soil from different accessions within a species) has only recently gained attention. Very few studies have investigated the direction and strength of feedback among different taxonomic levels, and initial results have been inconclusive, discussing phylogeny, and morphology as possible determinants. To test our hypotheses that the strength of negative feedback on plant performance increases with increasing taxonomic level and that this relationship is explained by morphological similarities, we conducted a greenhouse experiment using species assigned to three taxonomic levels (intraspecific, interspecific, and functional group level). We measured certain fitness‐related aboveground traits and used them along literature‐derived traits to determine the influence of morphological similarities on the strength and direction of the feedback. We found that the average strength of negative feedback increased from the intraspecific over the interspecific to the functional group level. However, individual accessions and species differed in the direction and strength of the feedback. None of our results could be explained by morphological dissimilarities or individual traits. Synthesis. Our results indicate that negative plant–soil feedback is stronger if the involved plants belong to more distantly related species. We conclude that the taxonomic level is an important factor in the maintenance of plant coexistence with plant–soil feedback as a potential stabilizing mechanism and should be addressed explicitly in coexistence research, while the traits considered here seem to play a minor role. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 618 KW - Arabidopsis thaliana Col-0 KW - home-away effect KW - intraspecific diversity KW - morphological similarities/ dissimilarities of plants KW - plant–soil (belowground) interactions KW - species coexistence KW - taxonomic levels KW - trait measurements Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423833 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 618 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Martins, Renata F. A1 - Schmidt, Anke A1 - Lenz, Dorina A1 - Wilting, Andreas A1 - Fickel, Jörns T1 - Human-­mediated introduction of introgressed deer across Wallace’s line BT - historical biogeography of Rusa unicolor and R. timorensis T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - In this study we compared the phylogeographic patterns of two Rusa species, Rusa unicolor and Rusa timorensis, in order to understand what drove and maintained differentiation between these two geographically and genetically close species and investigated the route of introduction of individuals to the islands outside of the Sunda Shelf. We analyzed full mitogenomes from 56 archival samples from the distribution areas of the two species and 18 microsatellite loci in a subset of 16 individuals to generate the phylogeographic patterns of both species. Bayesian inference with fossil calibration was used to estimate the age of each species and major divergence events. Our results indicated that the split between the two species took place during the Pleistocene, similar to 1.8Mya, possibly driven by adaptations of R. timorensis to the drier climate found on Java compared to the other islands of Sundaland. Although both markers identified two well-differentiated clades, there was a largely discrepant pattern between mitochondrial and nuclear markers. While nDNA separated the individuals into the two species, largely in agreement with their museum label, mtDNA revealed that all R. timorensis sampled to the east of the Sunda shelf carried haplotypes from R. unicolor and one Rusa unicolor from South Sumatra carried a R. timorensis haplotype. Our results show that hybridization occurred between these two sister species in Sundaland during the Late Pleistocene and resulted in human-mediated introduction of hybrid descendants in all islands outside Sundaland. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 617 KW - Cervidae KW - human introduction KW - hybridization KW - phylogeography KW - Sundaland KW - Wallace’s line Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-423843 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 617 ER -