TY - JOUR A1 - Lück, Erika A1 - Rühlmann, Jörg A1 - Kirchmann, Holger T1 - Properties of soils from the Swedish long-term fertility experiments VI. Mapping soil electrical conductivity with different geophysical methods JF - Acta agriculturae Scandinavica : Section B, Soil and plant science N2 - Swedish long-term soil fertility experiments were used to investigate the effect of texture and fertilization regime on soil electrical conductivity. In one geophysical approach, fields were mapped to characterize the horizontal variability in apparent electrical conductivity down to 1.5 m soil depth using an electromagnetic induction meter (EM38 device). The data obtained were geo-referenced by dGPS. The other approach consisted of measuring the vertical variability in electrical conductivity along transects using a multi-electrode apparatus for electrical resistivity tomography (GeoTom RES/IP device) down to 2 m depth. Geophysical field work was complemented by soil analyses. The results showed that despite 40 years of different fertilization regimes, treatments had no significant effects on the apparent electrical conductivity. Instead, the comparison of sites revealed high and low conductivity soils, with gradual differences explained by soil texture. A significant, linear relationship found between apparent electrical conductivity and soil clay content explained 80% of the variability measured. In terms of soil depth, both low and high electrical conductivity values were measured. Abrupt changes in electrical conductivity within a field revealed the presence of 'deviating areas'. Higher values corresponded well with layers with a high clay content, while local inclusions of coarse-textured materials caused a high variability in conductivity in some fields. The geophysical methods tested provided useful information on the variability in soil texture at the experimental sites. The use of spatial EC variability as a co-variable in statistical analysis could be a complementary tool in the evaluation of experimental results. KW - Conductivity depth model KW - conductivity map KW - electrical resistivity KW - soil heterogeneity Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/09064710.2010.502124 SN - 0906-4710 VL - 61 IS - 5 SP - 438 EP - 447 PB - Taylor & Francis Group CY - Oslo ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Konrad-Schmolke, Matthias A1 - O'Brien, Patrick J. A1 - Zack, Thomas T1 - Fluid Migration above a Subducted Slab-Constraints on Amount, Pathways and Major Element Mobility from Partially Overprinted Eclogite-facies Rocks (Sesia Zone, Western Alps) JF - Journal of petrology N2 - The Western Alpine Sesia-Lanzo Zone (SLZ) is a sliver of eclogite-facies continental crust exhumed from mantle depths in the hanging wall of a subducted oceanic slab. Eclogite-facies felsic and basic rocks sampled across the internal SLZ show different degrees of retrograde metamorphic overprint associated with fluid influx. The weakly deformed samples preserve relict eclogite-facies mineral assemblages that show partial fluid-induced compositional re-equilibration along grain boundaries, brittle fractures and other fluid pathways. Multiple fluid influx stages are indicated by replacement of primary omphacite by phengite, albitic plagioclase and epidote as well as partial re-equilibration and/or overgrowths in phengite and sodic amphibole, producing characteristic step-like compositional zoning patterns. The observed textures, together with the map-scale distribution of the samples, suggest open-system, pervasive and reactive fluid flux across large rock volumes above the subducted slab. Thermodynamic modelling indicates a minimum amount of fluid of 0 center dot 1-0 center dot 5 wt % interacting with the wall-rocks. Phase relations and reaction textures indicate mobility of K, Ca, Fe and Mg, whereas Al is relatively immobile in these medium-temperature-high-pressure fluids. Furthermore, the thermodynamic models show that recycling of previously fractionated material, such as in the cores of garnet porphyroblasts, largely controls the compositional re-equilibration of the exhumed rock body. KW - fluid migration KW - subduction KW - fluid-rock interaction KW - Sesia Zone Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/petrology/egq087 SN - 0022-3530 VL - 52 IS - 3 SP - 457 EP - 486 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Konrad-Schmolke, Matthias A1 - Zack, Thomas A1 - O'Brien, Patrick J. A1 - Barth, Matthias T1 - Fluid migration above a subducted slab - Thermodynamic and trace element modelling of fluid-rock interaction in partially overprinted eclogite-facies rocks (Sesia Zone, Western Alps) JF - Earth & planetary science letters N2 - The amount and composition of subduction zone fluids and the effect of fluid-rock interaction at a slab-mantle interface have been constrained by thermodynamic and trace element modelling of partially overprinted blueschist-facies rocks from the Sesia Zone (Western Alps). Deformation-induced differences in fluid flux led to a partial preservation of pristine mineral cores in weakly deformed samples that were used to quantify Li, B, Stand Pb distribution during mineral growth, -breakdown and modification induced by fluid-rock interaction. Our results show that Li and 13 budgets are fluid-controlled, thus acting as tracers for fluid-rock interaction processes, whereas Stand Pb budgets are mainly controlled by the fluid-induced formation of epidote. Our calculations show that fluid-rock interaction caused significant Li and B depletion in the affected rocks due to leaching effects, which in turn can lead to a drastic enrichment of these elements in the percolating fluid. Depending on available fluid-mineral trace element distribution coefficients modelled fluid rock ratios were up to 0.06 in weakly deformed samples and at least 0.5 to 4 in shear zone mylonites. These amounts lead to time integrated fluid fluxes of up to 1.4-10(2) m(3) m(-2) in the weakly deformed rocks and 1-8-10(3) m(3) m(-2) in the mylonites. Combined thermodynamic and trace element models can be used to quantify metamorphic fluid fluxes and the associated element transfer in complex, reacting rock systems and help to better understand commonly observed fluid-induced trace element trends in rocks and minerals from different geodynamic environments. KW - fluid-rock interaction KW - subduction zone KW - fluid migration KW - slab-mantle interface KW - trace element transport Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2011.09.025 SN - 0012-821X VL - 311 IS - 3-4 SP - 287 EP - 298 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schmidt, Alexander A1 - Mezger, Klaus A1 - O'Brien, Patrick J. T1 - The time of eclogite formation in the ultrahigh pressure rocks of the Sulu terrane Constraints from Lu-Hf garnet geochronology JF - Lithos : an international journal of mineralogy, petrology, and geochemistry N2 - Eclogites from the main borehole of the Chinese Continental Scientific Drilling project yield highly precise Lu-Hf garnet-clinopyroxene ages of 216.9 +/- 1.2 Ma (four samples) and 220.5 +/- 2.7 Ma (one sample). The spatial distribution of the rare earth elements in garnet is consistent with the preservation of primary growth zoning, unmodified by diffusion, which supports the interpretation that the Lu-Hf ages date the time of formation of garnet, the major rock forming mineral in the eclogites. The preservation of primary REE-zoning, despite peak metamorphic temperatures around 800-850 degrees C. indicates that the Lu-Hf chronometer is perfectly suitable to date garnet-forming reactions in high grade rocks. The range of Lu-Hf ages for eclogites in the Dabie-Sulu UHP terrane point to episodic rather than continuous growth of garnets and thus punctuated metamorphism during the collision of the North China Block and the Yangtze Block. The U-Pb ages and Hf-isotope systematics of zircon grains from one eclogite sample imply a protracted geologic history of the eclogite precursors that started around 2 Ga and culminated in the UHP metamorphism around 220 Ma. KW - Lu-Hf KW - Eclogite KW - Garnet KW - Geochronology KW - Ultrahigh-pressure Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lithos.2011.04.004 SN - 0024-4937 VL - 125 IS - 1-2 SP - 743 EP - 756 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kotkova, Jana A1 - O'Brien, Patrick J. A1 - Ziemann, Martin Andreas T1 - Diamond and coesite discovered in Saxony-type granulite solution to the Variscan garnet peridotite enigma JF - Geology N2 - The pressures required for diamond and coesite formation far exceed conditions reached by even the deepest present-day orogenic crustal roots. Therefore the occurrence of metamorphosed continental crust containing these minerals requires processes other than crustal thickening to have operated in the past. Here we report the first in situ finding of diamond and coesite, characterized by micro-Raman spectroscopy, in high-pressure granulites otherwise indistinguishable from granulites found associated with garnet peridotite throughout the European Variscides. Our discovery confirms the provenance of Europe's first reliable diamond, the "Bohemian diamond," found in A.D. 1870, and also represents the first robust evidence for ultrahigh-pressure conditions in a major Variscan crustal rock type. A process of deep continental subduction is required to explain the metamorphic pressures and the granulite-garnet peridotite association, and thus tectonometamorphic models for these rocks involving a deep orogenic crustal root need to be significantly modified. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1130/G31971.1 SN - 0091-7613 VL - 39 IS - 7 SP - 667 EP - 670 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Boulder ER - TY - THES A1 - Grochowska, Marta T1 - Ökonomische, soziale und räumliche Folgen der saisonalen Arbeitsmigration im Herkunftsgebiet : am Beispiel der Region Konin (Polen) T1 - Economic, social and spatial consequences of seasonal migration in the place of origin – case study : Konin (Poland) N2 - Die vorliegende Arbeit basiert auf Forschungen in den Jahren 2007-2009. Sie betrachtet die saisonale Arbeitsmigration aus der polnischen Region Konin, wo die Arbeitsmigration aus ökonomischen Gründen, wie auch in ähnlich strukturierten Gebieten Polens, eine lange Tradition hat, die bis ins 19. Jahrhundert zurückgeht. Sie wird die saisonale Migration ins Ausland mit den ökonomischen, sozialen und räumlichen Auswirkungen aus der Perspektive des Einzelnen und seiner unmittelbaren Umgebung, aber auch der Gesellschaft und Herkunftsgebiet der Migranten betrachtet. N2 - Mobility for economic reasons is treated in science primarily from the perspective of permanent resettlement. However, other varieties of migration are more and more often studied. This paper deals with the seasonal migration for economic reasons, which is an important area of migration undertaken for economic reasons. Seasonal migration, which leads to crossing the country borders, in the literature is called the Transnational Migration. Unlike international migration, which is usually connected with a permanent settling in the target area, the concept of Transnational migration describes the situation, in which migrants return to their place of origin and do not give it up as their main residence, but every time they travel to another country to get employed. As a research area of this work, the Konin region was chosen, because - in comparison with other regions in Poland - the phenomenon of a very high level of seasonal migration was observed there. Seasonal labor migration is a long tradition that goes back to 19. century here and in other Polish regions with similar structure. From the results of conducted in 2007−2009 research, some general facts can be drawn. Due to the seasonal work abroad, a seasonal migrant can increase their and their family’s standard of living. If the cost of living in the place of seasonal work is higher than in the place of origin, the profit of such visits is obviously higher if the family of a seasonal worker remains in the place of origin. This leads to the geographic division bet389 ween the place of working and place of permanent residence. Higher wages can be determined at the level of benefits to both personal and societal level. On the other hand, both forprofit workers and society in dealing with this phenomenon, costs cannot be ignored. This paper considers the pros and cons of seasonal paid work, both from the perspective of individuals and their surroundings, and the consequences for society and region of origin of the employee. This paper is considering economic, social and spatial consequences, each time at the macro and micro levels. The study was based primarily on interviews with several respondents and experts in the subject of Polish and German migrations for profit. T3 - Potsdamer Geographische Forschungen - 29 KW - saisonale Arbeitsmigration KW - transnationale Migration KW - Transnationalismus KW - Polen KW - Region Konin KW - Sachsengängerei KW - seasonal labor migration KW - transnational migration KW - transnationalism KW - Poland KW - Konin region KW - Sachsengängerei Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-49649 SN - 978-3-86956-137-0 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Wulf, Hendrik T1 - Seasonal precipitation, river discharge, and sediment flux in the western Himalaya T1 - Saisonaler Niederschlag, Wasserabfluss und Sedimentationsfluss im westlichen Himalaya N2 - Rainfall, snow-, and glacial melt throughout the Himalaya control river discharge, which is vital for maintaining agriculture, drinking water and hydropower generation. However, the spatiotemporal contribution of these discharge components to Himalayan rivers is not well understood, mainly because of the scarcity of ground-based observations. Consequently, there is also little known about the triggers and sources of peak sediment flux events, which account for extensive hydropower reservoir filling and turbine abrasion. We therefore lack basic information on the distribution of water resources and controls of erosion processes. In this thesis, I employ various methods to assess and quantify general characteristics of and links between precipitation, river discharge, and sediment flux in the Sutlej Valley. First, I analyze daily precipitation data (1998-2007) from 80 weather stations in the western Himalaya, to decipher the distribution of rain- and snowfall. Rainfall magnitude frequency analyses indicate that 40% of the summer rainfall budget is attributed to monsoonal rainstorms, which show higher variability in the orogenic interior than in frontal regions. Combined analysis of rainstorms and sediment flux data of a major Sutlej River tributary indicate that monsoonal rainfall has a first order control on erosion processes in the orogenic interior, despite the dominance of snowfall in this region. Second, I examine the contribution of rainfall, snow and glacial melt to river discharge in the Sutlej Valley (s55,000 km2), based on a distributed hydrological model, which covers the period 2000-2008. To achieve high spatial and daily resolution despite limited ground-based observations the hydrological model is forced by daily remote sensing data, which I adjusted and calibrated with ground station data. The calibration shows that the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 rainfall product systematically overestimates rainfall in semi-arid and arid regions, increasing with aridity. The model results indicate that snowmelt-derived discharge (74%) is most important during the pre-monsoon season (April to June) whereas rainfall (56%) and glacial melt (17%) dominate the monsoon season (July-September). Therefore, climate change most likely causes a reduction in river discharge during the pre-monsoon season, which especially affects the orogenic interior. Third, I investigate the controls on suspended sediment flux in different parts of the Sutlej catchments, based on daily gauging data from the past decade. In conjunction with meteorological data, earthquake records, and rock strength measurements I find that rainstorms are the most frequent trigger of high-discharge events with peaks in suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) that account for the bulk of the suspended sediment flux. The suspended sediment flux increases downstream, mainly due to increases in runoff. Pronounced erosion along the Himalayan Front occurs throughout the monsoon season, whereas efficient erosion of the orogenic interior is confined to single extreme events. The results of this thesis highlight the importance of snow and glacially derived melt waters in the western Himalaya, where extensive regions receive only limited amounts of monsoonal rainfall. These regions are therefore particularly susceptible to global warming with major implications on the hydrological cycle. However, the sediment discharge data show that infrequent monsoonal rainstorms that pass the orographic barrier of the Higher Himalaya are still the primary trigger of the highest-impact erosion events, despite being subordinate to snow and glacially–derived discharge. These findings may help to predict peak sediment flux events and could underpin the strategic development of preventative measures for hydropower infrastructures. N2 - Regen, Schnee- und Gletscherschmelze speisen die Flüsse des Himalajas, die eine große Bedeutung für die Landwirtschaft, Trinkwasserversorgung und Wasserkraftnutzung in Südasien aufweisen. Welchen Anteil die einzelnen Abflusskomponenten am Gesamtabfluss in Raum und Zeit besitzen, ist jedoch kaum quantifiziert, da es in der entlegenen Region an Bodenmessstationen mangelt. Aus diesem Grund ist auch wenig über die Auslöser und Herkunftsgebiete von hohen Sedimentaustragsereignissen bekannt, die im erheblichen Maße dazu beitragen, dass die Kapazität vonWasserkraftreservoiren abnimmt undWasserkraftturbinen abradieren. Daher fehlen bisher grundlegende Informationen zur räumlichen Verteilung von Wasserressourcen und zu den Ursachen von Erosionsprozessen. In dieser Arbeit benutze ich verschiedene Methoden um die Eigenschaften von und die Beziehungen zwischen Niederschlag, Abflussmenge und Sedimentaustrag im Sutlej-Tal zu untersuchen. In einer ersten Studie analysiere ich Tagesniederschläge (1998-2007) von 80 Wetterstationen aus dem westlichen Himalaja, um die räumliche Verteilung von Regen- und Schneeniederschlägen zu charakterisieren. Die weitere Analyse der Magnituden-Häufigkeitsverteilung von Regenfällen zeigt, dass 40% der sommerlichen Niederschläge auf monsunale Starkregenereignisse zurückgehen, die eine höhere Variabilität im Gebirgsinneren aufweisen als an der Gebirgsfront. Die Kombination von Niederschlagsdaten mit Sedimentaustragsdaten für einen der größten Zuflüsse des Sutlejs zeigt, dass monsunaler Niederschlag der primäre Auslöser von Erosionsprozessen im Gebirgsinneren ist, ungeachtet größerer Abflussmengen durch Schnee- und Gletscherschmelze. In einer zweiten Studie untersuche ich den Beitrag von Regen, Schnee- und Gletscherschmelze zur Abflussmenge im Sutlej-Tal (s55.000 km2) mit Hilfe eines hydrologischen Modells für den Jahreszeitraum 2000-2008. Um trotz der begrenzten Bodenmessungen eine hohe räumliche und zeitliche Auflösung zu erzielen, basiert das Modell auf täglichen Fernerkundungsdaten, die ich mit allen verfügbaren Bodenstationsdaten kalibriert und an diese angepasst habe. Die Kalibrierung zeigt, dass das Regenniederschlagsprodukt 3B42 der „Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission“ (TRMM) den Bodenniederschlag in den semi-ariden bis ariden Gebirgsregionen mit zunehmender Trockenheit systematisch überschätzt. Die Modellierungsergebnisse verdeutlichen, dass die Schneeschmelze den bedeutendsten Beitrag zur Abflussmenge (74 %) zwischen April und Juni aufbringt, während Regen (56%) und Gletscherschmelze (17%) die Monsunsaison (Juli-September) prägen. Daher ist anzunehmen, dass der Klimawandel zu einer Verringerung der Abflussmenge zwischen April und Juni führen wird, was sich besonders auf das Gebirgsinnere auswirkt. In einer dritten Studie untersuche ich mit Hilfe von täglichen Messdaten der letzten Dekade die Ursachen und Eigenschaften des Sedimentaustrags in verschiedenen Bereichen des Sutlej-Einzugsgebietes. Auf der Grundlage von meteorologischen Daten, Erdbebenaufzeichnungen und Gesteinsfestigkeitsmessungen identifiziere ich Starkregenereignisse als häufigste Ursache für extreme Erosionsereignisse, die einen Großteil des gesamten Sedimentaustrags ausmachen. Großräumig betrachtet nimmt der Sedimentaustrag flussabwärts zu, was hauptsächlich auf den Anstieg der Abflussmenge zurückzuführen ist. Zur Monsunzeit treten Erosionsprozesse entlang der Himalajafront besonders häufig auf, während im Gebirgsinneren die Erosion auf einzelne Extremereignisse beschränkt ist. Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit untersteichen die Bedeutung von Schnee- und Gletscherschmelze im westlichen Himalaja, in dem große Gebiete nur vereinzelt von monsunalen Niederschlägen erreicht werden. Diese Gebiete sind daher besonders anfällig für den Klimawandel mit weitreichenden Konsequenzen für den Wasserhaushalt in der Region. Die Analyse von Sedimentaustragsdaten zeigt jedoch, dass vereinzelte monsunale Regenstürme, welche die topographische Barriere des Himalaja überqueren, die primäre Ursache von extremen Erosionsereignissen sind, trotz der größeren Abflussmengen von Schnee- und Gletscherschmelze im Gebirgsinneren. Diese Ergebnisse können dazu beitragen, große Erosionsereignisse vorherzusagen und vorbeugende Maßnahmen zum Schutz von Wasserkraftanlagen zu entwickeln. KW - Klimawandel KW - Erosion KW - Monsun KW - Regensturm KW - Suspendsionsfracht KW - climate change KW - erosion KW - monsoon KW - rainstorm KW - suspended sediment Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-57905 ER - TY - THES A1 - Wichura, Henry T1 - Topographic evolution of the East African Plateau : a combined study on lava-flow modeling and paleo-topography T1 - Die topographische Entwicklung des Ostafrikanischen Plateaus : eine kombinierte Studie über Lavastrommodellierung und Paläotopographie N2 - The East African Plateau provides a spectacular example of geodynamic plateau uplift, active continental rifting, and associated climatic forcing. It is an integral part of the East African Rift System and has an average elevation of approximately 1,000 m. Its location coincides with a negative Bouguer gravity anomaly with a semi-circular shape, closely related to a mantle plume, which influences the Cenozoic crustal development since its impingement in Eocene-Oligocene time. The uplift of the East African Plateau, preceding volcanism, and rifting formed an important orographic barrier and tectonically controlled environment, which is profoundly influenced by climate driven processes. Its location within the equatorial realm supports recently proposed hypotheses, that topographic changes in this region must be considered as the dominant forcing factor influencing atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall distribution. The uplift of this region has therefore often been associated with fundamental climatic and environmental changes in East Africa and adjacent regions. While the far-reaching influence of the plateau uplift is widely accepted, the timing and the magnitude of the uplift are ambiguous and are still subject to ongoing discussion. This dilemma stems from the lack of datable, geomorphically meaningful reference horizons that could record surface uplift. In order to quantify the amount of plateau uplift and to find evidence for the existence of significant relief along the East African Plateau prior to rifting, I analyzed and modeled one of the longest terrestrial lava flows; the 300-km-long Yatta phonolite flow in Kenya. This lava flow is 13.5 Ma old and originated in the region that now corresponds to the eastern rift shoulders. The phonolitic flow utilized an old riverbed that once drained the eastern flank of the plateau. Due to differential erosion this lava flow now forms a positive relief above the parallel-flowing Athi River, which is mimicking the course of the paleo-river. My approach is a lava-flow modeling, based on an improved composition and temperature dependent method to parameterize the flow of an arbitrary lava in a rectangular-shaped channel. The essential growth pattern is described by a one-dimensional model, in which Newtonian rheological flow advance is governed by the development of viscosity and/or velocity in the internal parts of the lava-flow front. Comparing assessments of different magma compositions reveal that length-dominated, channelized lava flows are characterized by high effusion rates, rapid emplacement under approximately isothermal conditions, and laminar flow. By integrating the Yatta lava flow dimensions and the covered paleo-topography (slope angle) into the model, I was able to determine the pre-rift topography of the East African Plateau. The modeling results yield a pre-rift slope of at least 0.2°, suggesting that the lava flow must have originated at a minimum elevation of 1,400 m. Hence, high topography in the region of the present-day Kenya Rift must have existed by at least 13.5 Ma. This inferred mid-Miocene uplift coincides with the two-step expansion of grasslands, as well as important radiation and speciation events in tropical Africa. Accordingly, the combination of my results regarding the Yatta lava flow emplacement history, its location, and its morphologic character, validates it as a suitable “paleo-tiltmeter” and has thus to be considered as an important topographic and volcanic feature for the topographic evolution in East Africa. N2 - Das Ostafrikanische Plateau ist ein eindrucksvolles Beispiel für aktive, kontinentale Grabenbildung, aber auch für geodynamische Hochebenenbildung mit weitreichendem klimatischen Einfluss auf die gesamte Region. Als integraler Bestandteil des Ostafrikanischen Grabensystems beläuft sich die mittlere Höhe des Plateaus auf durchschnittlich 1000 m ü.NN. Seine Lage korreliert gut mit der Präsenz einer halbkreisförmigen negativen Bouguer-Schwereanomalie, die an den Aufstieg eines Manteldiapirs im Untergrund gekoppelt ist. Dieser prägte die känozoische Krustenentwicklung seit seinem Aufstieg im Eozän-Oligozän. Die Hebungsgeschichte und topographische Entwicklung des Hochlandes steht seither in enger Beziehung zum einsetzenden Vulkanismus, der Bildung erster Abschiebungssysteme und führte schließlich zur Entwicklung des heutigen Vollgrabensystems. Neueste Hypothesen lassen den Schluss zu, dass topographische Veränderungen als dominierende Einflussgrößen atmosphärischer Zirkulationsmuster sowie der regionalen Niederschlagsverbreitung anzusehen sind. Zusätzlich werden diese Prozesse durch die äquatoriale Lage des Ostafrikanischen Plateaus verstärkt und die Hebung dieser Region oft mit wichtigen Klima- und Umweltveränderungen in Ostafrika und angrenzende Gebiete in Verbindung gebracht. Während der weitreichende klimatische Einfluss des Hochlandes größtenteils akzeptiert ist, sind Zeitpunkt und Ausmaß seiner Heraushebung nicht eindeutig bestimmt und daher noch immer Grundlage bestehender Diskussionen. Diese Zwangslage hat ihre Ursache im Fehlen aussagekräftiger und datierbarer Referenzhorizonte. Um den Hebungsbetrag zu quantifizieren und Beweise signifikanten Reliefs vor der Entwicklung des Grabensystems entlang des Ostafrikanischen Hochlandes zu erbringen, analysierte und modellierte ich einen der längsten terrestrischen Lavaströme. Dieser vor 13,5 Ma abgelagerte Yatta-Lavastrom hat mit 300 km Länge seinen Ursprung in der Region der heutigen östlichen Grabenschulter des zentralen Kenia-Rifts. Die phonolitische Lava ergoss sich entlang eines Flussbettes, das einst die östliche Flanke des Hochlandes entwässerte. Aufgrund unterschiedlicher Erosionspotentiale bildet der Lavastrom gegenwärtig ein positives Relief und befindet sich oberhalb des Athi Flusses, der parallel zum Paläofluß, und somit versetzt zu seinen früheren Verlauf, strömt. Mein Ansatz der Lavastrom-Modellierung basiert auf einer Methode, die das Fließverhalten einer beliebigen Lava in Abhängigkeit von Temperatur und Magmenzusammensetzung in einem rechtwinkligen Kanal berechnet. Die wesentlichen Wachstumsmuster des Lavastroms sind durch ein eindimensionales Modell beschrieben, wobei Newtonsches Fließverhalten im Innern hinter der Lavastromfront von der zeitlichen Entwicklung der Viskosität und/oder der Fließgeschwindigkeit bestimmt wird. Vergleiche meiner Resultate mit verschiedenen Magmenzusammensetzungen zeigen, dass sich lange, kanalisierte Lavaströme mit hohen Ergussraten und schneller Platznahme bilden können. Dies geschieht unter annähernd isothermalen Bedingungen und erfordert laminares Fließen. Die Integration der Yatta- Lavastrom-Dimensionen und der bedeckten Paläotopographie (Neigungswinkel) in das Modell, erlaubte es mir die Topographie des Ostafrikanischen Hochlandes vor der Grabenbildung zu modellieren. Das Ergebnis der Modellierung ergibt einen Neigungswinkel von mindestens 0,2° und impliziert, dass der Lavastrom seinen Ursprung in einer Höhe von mindestens 1400 m ü.NN gehabt haben muss. Somit existierte bereits vor 13,5 Ma hohe Topographie in der heutigen Region des zentralen Kenia-Rifts. Diese abgeleitete regionale Hebungsgeschichte im mittleren Miozän korreliert mit der zweistufigen Ausbreitung der Graslandschaften, sowie dem Aufkommen neuer Arten im tropischen Afrika. Die Kombination aus Fließverhalten, Entstehungsort und morphologischer Eigenschaften macht den Yatta-Lavastrom zu einem “Paläoneigungsmesser” und wichtigen vulkanischen Untersuchungsobjekt für die topographische Entwicklung in Ostafrika. KW - Ostafrika KW - Plateau KW - Paläotopographie KW - Miozän KW - Yatta KW - East African Plateau KW - paleo-topography KW - Miocene KW - Yatta Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52363 ER - TY - THES A1 - Polanski, Stefan T1 - Simulation der indischen Monsunzirkulation mit dem Regionalen Klimamodell HIRHAM T1 - Simulation of the Indian Monsoon Circulation with the regional climate model HIRHAM N2 - In dieser Arbeit wird das regionale Klimamodell HIRHAM mit einer horizontalen Auflösung von 50 km und 19 vertikalen Schichten erstmals auf den asiatischen Kontinent angewendet, um die indische Monsunzirkulation unter rezenten und paläoklimatischen Bedingungen zu simulieren. Das Integrationsgebiet des Modells erstreckt sich von etwa 0ºN - 50ºN und 42ºE - 110ºE und bedeckt dabei sowohl die hohe Topographie des Himalajas und Tibet Plateaus als auch den nördlichen Indischen Ozean. Das Ziel besteht in der Beschreibung der regionalen Kopplung zwischen der Monsunzirkulation und den orographischen sowie diabatischen Antriebsmechanismen. Eine 44-jährige Modellsimulation von 1958-2001, die am seitlichen und unteren Rand von ECMWF Reanalysen (ERA40) angetrieben wird, bildet die Grundlage für die Validierung der Modellergebnisse mit Beobachtungen auf der Basis von Stations- und Gitterdatensätzen. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf der atmosphärischen Zirkulation, der Temperatur und dem Niederschlag im Sommer- und Wintermonsun, wobei die Qualität des Modells sowohl in Bezug zur langfristigen und dekadischen Klimatologie als auch zur interannuellen Variabilität evaluiert wird. Im Zusammenhang mit einer realistischen Reproduktion der Modelltopographie kann für die Muster der Zirkulation und Temperatur eine gute Übereinstimmung zwischen Modell und Daten nachgewiesen werden. Der simulierte Niederschlag zeigt eine bessere Übereinstimmung mit einem hoch aufgelösten Gitterdatensatz über der Landoberfläche Zentralindiens und in den Hochgebirgsregionen, der den Vorteil des Regionalmodells gegenüber der antreibenden Reanalyse hervorhebt. In verschiedenen Fall- und Sensitivitätsstudien werden die wesentlichen Antriebsfaktoren des indischen Monsuns (Meeresoberflächentemperaturen, Stärke des winterlichen Sibirischen Hochs und Anomalien der Bodenfeuchte) untersucht. Die Ergebnisse machen deutlich, dass die Simulation dieser Mechanismen auch mit einem Regionalmodell sehr schwierig ist, da die Komplexität des Monsunsystems hochgradig nichtlinear ist und die vor allem subgridskalig wirkenden Prozesse im Modell noch nicht ausreichend parametrisiert und verstanden sind. Ein paläoklimatisches Experiment für eine 44-jährige Zeitscheibe im mittleren Holozän (etwa 6000 Jahre vor heute), die am Rand von einer globalen ECHAM5 Simulation angetrieben wird, zeigt markante Veränderungen in der Intensität des Monsuns durch die unterschiedliche solare Einstrahlung, die wiederum Einflüsse auf die SST, die Zirkulation und damit auf die Niederschlagsmuster hat. N2 - In this study the regional climate model HIRHAM with a horizontal resolution of 50 km and 19 vertical levels is applied over the Asian continent to simulate the Indian monsoon circulation under present-day and past conditions. The integration domain extends from 0ºN - 50ºN and 42ºE - 110ºE and covers the high topography of Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau as well as the northern Indian Ocean. The main objective is the description of the regional coupling between monsoon circulation and orographic as well as thermal driving mechanisms of monsoon. A 44-years long simulation from 1958-2001, driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European reanalysis (ERA40), is the basis for the validation of model results with observations based on station and gridded data sets. The focus is on the the long-term and decadal summer and winter monsoon climatology and its variability concerning atmospheric circulation, temperature and precipitation. The results successfully reproduce the observations due to a realistic simulation of topographic features. The simulated precipitation shows a better agreement with a high-resolution gridded data set over the central land areas of India and in the higher elevated Tibetan and Himalayan regions than ERA40. In different case and sensitivity studies the main driving mechanisms of the Indian monsoon (Sea Surface Temperatures, strength of the Siberian High in winter and soil moisture anomalies) are investigated. The results show, that the simulation of these mechanisms with a regional climate model is also difficult related to the complex non linear monsoon system and the small-scale processes, which are not just sufficiently parameterized and understood in the model. A paleoclimatic experiment for a 44-years long time slice in mid-holocene (6000 years before present), which is driven by a global ECHAM5 simulation, shows significant changes in the monsoon intensity due to the different solar forcing, which influences the SST, the circulation and the precipitation. KW - Indische Monsunzirkulation KW - regionales Klimamodell KW - Indian Monsoon Circulation KW - Regional Climate Model Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-52508 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pilz, Marco A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Stupazzini, Marco A1 - Paolucci, Roberto A1 - Zschau, Jochen T1 - Modelling basin effects on earthquake ground motion in the Santiago de Chile basin by a spectral element code JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - Simulations of strong ground motion within the Santiago de Chile Metropolitan area were carried out by means of 3-D deterministic wave propagation tool based on the spectral element method. The simulated events take into account the pronounced interface between the low-velocity sedimentary basin and the bedrock as well as topography of the area. To verify our model we simulated a regional earthquake recorded by a dense network installed in the city of Santiago for recording aftershock activity after the 2010 February 27 Maule main shock. The results proof the alluvial basin amplification effects and show a strong dependence of spectral amplification in the basin on the local site conditions. Moreover, we studied the seismic response due to a hypothetical M(w) = 6.0 event occurring along the active San Ramon Fault, which is crossing the eastern edge of the city. The scenario earthquakes exhibit that an unfavourable interaction between fault rupture, radiation mechanism and complex geological and topographic conditions in the near-field region may give rise to large values of peak ground velocity in the basin. Finally, 3-D numerical predictions of ground motion are compared with the one computed according to ground motion prediction equations selected among the next generation attenuation relationships, in terms of ground motion peak values and spectral acceleration. The comparison underlines that the 3-D scenario simulations predict a significantly higher level of ground motion in the Santiago basin, especially over deep alluvial deposits. Moreover, also the location of the rupture nucleation largely influences the observed shaking pattern. KW - Earthquake ground motions KW - Site effects KW - Wave propagation KW - South America Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2011.05183.x SN - 0956-540X VL - 187 IS - 2 SP - 929 EP - 945 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Malden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pilz, Marco A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Picozzi, Matteo A1 - Zschau, Jochen T1 - Evaluation of proxies for seismic site conditions in large urban areas the example of Santiago de Chile JF - Physics and chemistry of the earth N2 - Characterizing the local site response in large cities is an important step towards seismic hazard assessment. To this regard, single station seismic noise measurements were carried out at 146 sites in the northern part of Santiago de Chile. This extensive survey allowed the fundamental resonance frequency of the sedimentary cover, derived from horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratios, to be mapped. By inverting the spectral ratios under the constraint of the thickness of the sedimentary cover, known from previous gravimetric measurements, local S-wave velocity profiles have been retrieved. After interpolation between the individual profiles, the resulting high resolution 3D S-wave velocity model allows the entire area, as well as deeper parts of the basin, to be represented in great detail. Since one lithology shows a great scatter in the velocity values only a very general correlation between S-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m (v(s)(30)) and local geology is found. Local S-wave velocity profiles can serve as a key factor in seismic hazard assessment, since they allow an estimate of the amplification potential of the sedimentary cover. Mapping the intensity distribution of the 27 February 2010 Maule, Chile, event (Mw = 8.8) the results indicate that local amplification of the ground motion might partially explain the damage distribution and encourage the use of the low cost seismic noise techniques for the study of seismic site effects. KW - Ambient seismic noise KW - H/V ratio KW - Inversion KW - S-wave velocity KW - Site effects Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2011.01.007 SN - 1474-7065 VL - 36 IS - 16 SP - 1259 EP - 1266 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - THES A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian T1 - Earthquake triggering and interaction T1 - Erdbebenentstehung und Wechselwirkungen N2 - Earthquake faults interact with each other in many different ways and hence earthquakes cannot be treated as individual independent events. Although earthquake interactions generally lead to a complex evolution of the crustal stress field, it does not necessarily mean that the earthquake occurrence becomes random and completely unpredictable. In particular, the interplay between earthquakes can rather explain the occurrence of pronounced characteristics such as periods of accelerated and depressed seismicity (seismic quiescence) as well as spatiotemporal earthquake clustering (swarms and aftershock sequences). Ignoring the time-dependence of the process by looking at time-averaged values – as largely done in standard procedures of seismic hazard assessment – can thus lead to erroneous estimations not only of the activity level of future earthquakes but also of their spatial distribution. Therefore, it exists an urgent need for applicable time-dependent models. In my work, I aimed at better understanding and characterization of the earthquake interactions in order to improve seismic hazard estimations. For this purpose, I studied seismicity patterns on spatial scales ranging from hydraulic fracture experiments (meter to kilometer) to fault system size (hundreds of kilometers), while the temporal scale of interest varied from the immediate aftershock activity (minutes to months) to seismic cycles (tens to thousands of years). My studies revealed a number of new characteristics of fluid-induced and stress-triggered earthquake clustering as well as precursory phenomena in earthquake cycles. Data analysis of earthquake and deformation data were accompanied by statistical and physics-based model simulations which allow a better understanding of the role of structural heterogeneities, stress changes, afterslip and fluid flow. Finally, new strategies and methods have been developed and tested which help to improve seismic hazard estimations by taking the time-dependence of the earthquake process appropriately into account. N2 - Erdbeben interagieren in vielfältiger Weise miteinander, weshalb sie nicht als einzelne, unabhängige Ereignisse behandelt werden können. Obwohl diese Erdbebenwechselwirkungen in der Regel zu einer komplexen Entwicklung des Spannungsfelds führen, bedeutet dies nicht zwangsläufig, dass Erdbeben rein zufällig und völlig unberechenbar auftreten. Insbesondere kann das Zusammenspiel zwischen Erdbeben zu ausgeprägten Charakteristiken wie Phasen beschleunigter Aktivität, seismischer Ruhe sowie raumzeitlichen Erdbebenanhäufungen (Schwärme und Nachbebensequenzen) führen. Die Vernachlässigung der Zeitabhängigkeit des Erdbebenprozesses kann somit zu fehlerhaften Einschätzungen nicht nur des zukünftigen Aktivitätsniveaus, sondern auch der räumlichen Verteilung führen. Daher besteht ein dringender Bedarf an geeigneten zeitabhängigen Seismizitätsmodellen. Meine Arbeit zielt auf ein verbessertes Verständnis und Charakterisierung der Interaktionen von Erdbeben ab, um Abschätzungen der Erdbebengefährdung zu verbessern. Zu diesem Zweck untersuche ich Seismizitätsmuster auf den räumlichen Skalen von hydraulisch induzierten Öffnungsbrüchen (Meter bis Kilometer) bis zu Verwerfungssystemen (Hunderte von Kilometern), während die zeitlichen Skalen von Nachbebenaktivität (Minuten bis Monate) bis zu seismischen Zyklen (bis zu mehrere tausendend Jahre) reichen. Meine Studien ergeben eine Reihe neuer Merkmale von Fluid- und Spannungs-induzierten Erdbeben. Ergänzend zur reinen Datenanalyse der Erdbeben- und Deformationsdaten liefern statistische und Physik-basierte Modellsimulationen ein besseres Verständnis der Rolle von strukturellen Heterogenitäten, Spannungsänderungen und postseismischen Prozessen. Schließlich konnten neue Strategien und Methoden entwickelt und getestet werden, mit denen die Erdbebengefährdung besser eingeschätzt werden kann, indem die Zeitabhängigkeit des Erdbebens Prozess angemessen berücksichtigt wird. KW - Erdbebeninteraktion KW - Erdbebengefährdung KW - earthquake interaction KW - seismic hazard Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-50095 ER - TY - THES A1 - Gräff, Thomas T1 - Soil moisture dynamics and soil moisture controlled runoff processes at different spatial scales : from observation to modelling T1 - Bodenfeuchtedynamik und deren Einfluss auf Abflussprozesse in unterschiedlichen Skalen : von der Beobachtung zur Modellierung N2 - Soil moisture is a key state variable that controls runoff formation, infiltration and partitioning of radiation into latent and sensible heat. However, the experimental characterisation of near surface soil moisture patterns and their controls on runoff formation remains a challenge. This subject was one aspect of the BMBF-funded OPAQUE project (operational discharge and flooding predictions in head catchments). As part of that project the focus of this dissertation is on: (1) testing the methodology and feasibility of the Spatial TDR technology in producing soil moisture profiles along TDR probes, including an inversion technique of the recorded signal in heterogeneous field soils, (2) the analysis of spatial variability and temporal dynamics of soil moisture at the field scale including field experiments and hydrological modelling, (3) the application of models of different complexity for understanding soil moisture dynamics and its importance for runoff generation as well as for improving the prediction of runoff volumes. To fulfil objective 1, several laboratory experiments were conducted to understand the influence of probe rod geometry and heterogeneities in the sampling volume under different wetness conditions. This includes a detailed analysis on how these error sources affect retrieval of soil moisture profiles in soils. Concerning objective 2 a sampling strategy of two TDR clusters installed in the head water of the Wilde Weißeritz catchment (Eastern Ore Mountains, Germany) was used to investigate how well “the catchment state” can be characterised by means of distributed soil moisture data observed at the field scale. A grassland site and a forested site both located on gentle slopes were instrumented with two Spatial TDR clusters that consist of up to 39 TDR probes. Process understanding was gained by modelling the interaction of evapotranspiration and soil moisture with the hydrological process model CATFLOW. A field scale irrigation experiment was carried out to investigate near subsurface processes at the hillslope scale. The interactions of soil moisture and runoff formation were analysed using discharge data from three nested catchments: the Becherbach with a size of 2 km², the Rehefeld catchment (17 km²) and the superordinate Ammelsdorf catchment (49 km²). Statistical analyses including observations of pre-event runoff, soil moisture and different rainfall characteristics were employed to predict stream flow volume. On the different scales a strong correlation between the average soil moisture and the runoff coefficients of rainfall-runoff events could be found, which almost explains equivalent variability as the pre-event runoff. Furthermore, there was a strong correlation between surface soil moisture and subsurface wetness with a hysteretic behaviour between runoff soil moisture. To fulfil objective 3 these findings were used in a generalised linear model (GLM) analysis which combines state variables describing the catchments antecedent wetness and variables describing the meteorological forcing in order to predict event runoff coefficients. GLM results were compared to simulations with the catchment model WaSiM ETH. Hereby were the model results of the GLMs always better than the simulations with WaSiM ETH. The GLM analysis indicated that the proposed sampling strategy of clustering TDR probes in typical functional units is a promising technique to explore soil moisture controls on runoff generation and can be an important link between the scales. Long term monitoring of such sites could yield valuable information for flood warning and forecasting by identifying critical soil moisture conditions for the former and providing a better representation of the initial moisture conditions for the latter. N2 - Abflussentwicklung, Infiltration und die Umverteilung von Strahlung in latenten und sensiblen Wärmestrom werden maßgeblich durch die Bodenfeuchte der vadosen Zone gesteuert. Trotz allem, gibt s wenig Arbeiten die sich mit der experimentellen Charakterisierung der Bodenfeuchteverteilung und ihre Auswirkung auf die Abflussbildung beschäftigen. Der Fokus dieser Dissertation wurde darauf ausgerichtet: (1) die Methode des Spatial TDR und deren Anwendbarkeit einschließlich der Inversion des TDR Signals in heterogenen Böden zu prüfen, (2) die Analyse der räumlichen und zeitlichen Dynamik der Bodenfeuchte auf der Feldskala einschließlich Feldexperimenten und hydrologischer Modellierung, (3) der Aufbau verschiedener Modellanwendungen unterschiedlicher Komplexität um die Bodenfeuchtedynamiken und die Abflussentwicklung zu verstehen und die Vorhersage des Abflussvolumens zu verbessern. Um die Zielsetzung 1 zu erreichen, wurden verschiedene Laborversuche durchgeführt. Hierbei wurde der Einfluss der Sondenstabgeometrie und verschiedener Heterogenitäten im Messvolumen bei verschiedenen Feuchtegehalten untersucht. Dies beinhaltete eine detaillierte Analyse wie diese Fehlerquellen die Inversion des Bodenfeuchteprofils beeinflussen. Betreffend der Zielsetzung 2, wurden 2 TDR-Cluster in den Quellgebieten der Wilden Weißeritz installiert (Osterzgebirge) und untersucht, wie gut der Gebietszustand mit räumlich hochaufgelösten Bodenfeuchtedaten der Feldskala charakterisiert werden kann. Um die Interaktion zwischen Evapotranspiration und Bodenfeuchte zu untersuchen wurde das hydrologische Prozessmodell CATFLOW angewendet. Ein Beregnungsversuch wurde durchgeführt um die Zwischenabflussprozesse auf der Hangskala zu verstehen. Die Interaktion zwischen Bodenfeuchte und Abflussentwicklung wurde anhand von drei einander zugeordneten Einzugsgebieten analysiert. Statistische Analysen unter Berücksichtigung von Basisabfluss, Bodenvorfeuchte und verschiedenen Niederschlagscharakteristika wurden verwendet, um auf das Abflussvolumen zu schließen. Auf den verschiedenen Skalen konnte eine hohe Korrelation zwischen der mittleren Bodenfeuchte und dem Abflussbeiwert der Einzelereignisse festgestellt werden. Hierbei konnte die Bodenfeuchte genauso viel Variabilität erklären wie der Basisabfluss. Im Hinblick auf Zielsetzung 3 wurden “Generalised liner models” (GLM) genutzt. Dabei wurden Prädiktorvariablen die den Gebietszustand beschreiben und solche die die Meteorologische Randbedingungen beschreiben genutzt um den Abflussbeiwert zu schätzen. Die Ergebnisse der GLMs wurden mit Simulationsergebnissen des hydrologischen Gebietsmodells WaSiM ETH verglichen. Hierbei haben die GLMs eindeutig bessere Ergebnisse geliefert gegenüber den WaSiM Simulationen. Die GLM Analysen haben aufgezeigt, dass die verwendete Messstrategie mehrerer TDR-Cluster in typischen funktionalen Einheiten eine viel versprechende Methode ist, um den Einfluss der Bodenfeuchte auf die Abflussentwicklung zu verstehen und ein Bindeglied zwischen den Skalen darstellen zu können. Langzeitbeobachtungen solcher Standorte sind in der Lage wichtige Zusatzinformationen bei der Hochwasserwarnung und -vorhersage zu liefern durch die Identifizierung kritischer Gebietszustände für erstere und eine bessere Repräsentation der Vorfeuchte für letztere. KW - Bodenfeuchte KW - TDR KW - Heterogenität KW - Einzugsgebiet KW - Gebietszustand KW - Soil moisture KW - TDR KW - heterogeneity KW - catchment KW - runoff KW - catchment state Y1 - 2011 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-54470 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lederer, Markus T1 - From CDM to REDD+ - what do we know for setting up effective and legitimate carbon governance? JF - Ecological economics N2 - This article compares two carbon governance instruments - the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) - to assess lessons from the former for the latter regarding effectiveness and legitimacy of such instruments. The article argues that the CDM has a relatively high degree of output-oriented legitimacy resulting in effectiveness and some input-oriented legitimacy, with few discernible tradeoffs between them. In contrasting this to REDD+, the hypotheses are advanced that (i) output-oriented legitimacy/effectiveness can again be achieved but that (ii) a higher degree of input-oriented legitimacy is necessary for REDD+ and thus also a certain trade-off between the two forms of legitimacy can be expected. This is shown through comparing the technologies and methodologies, economic rationales, political support, regulatory structures, and environmental impacts of both instruments. KW - Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD plus ) KW - Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) KW - Effectiveness KW - Legitimacy Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.02.003 SN - 0921-8009 VL - 70 IS - 11 SP - 1900 EP - 1907 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Shebalin, Peter A1 - Narteau, Clement A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Schorlemmer, Danijel T1 - Short-Term earthquake forecasting using early aftershock statistics JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - We present an alarm-based earthquake forecast model that uses the early aftershock statistics (EAST). This model is based on the hypothesis that the time delay before the onset of the power-law aftershock decay rate decreases as the level of stress and the seismogenic potential increase. Here, we estimate this time delay from < t(g)>, the time constant of the Omori-Utsu law. To isolate space-time regions with a relative high level of stress, the single local variable of our forecast model is the E-a value, the ratio between the long-term and short-term estimations of < t(g)>. When and where the E-a value exceeds a given threshold (i.e., the c value is abnormally small), an alarm is issued, and an earthquake is expected to occur during the next time step. Retrospective tests show that the EAST model has better predictive power than a stationary reference model based on smoothed extrapolation of past seismicity. The official prospective test for California started on 1 July 2009 in the testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). During the first nine months, 44 M >= 4 earthquakes occurred in the testing area. For this time period, the EAST model has better predictive power than the reference model at a 1% level of significance. Because the EAST model has also a better predictive power than several time-varying clustering models tested in CSEP at a 1% level of significance, we suggest that our successful prospective results are not due only to the space-time clustering of aftershocks. Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100119 SN - 0037-1106 VL - 101 IS - 1 SP - 297 EP - 312 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - El Cerrito ER - TY - THES A1 - Ulrich, Mathias T1 - Permafrost landform studies on Earth : Implications for periglacial landscape evolution and habitability on Mars Y1 - 2011 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Fernandoy, Francisco T1 - Recent climate variability at the Antartica Peninsula and coastal Dronning Maud Land, based on stable water isotope data Y1 - 2011 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Fader, Marianela T1 - Flows of virtual land and water throught global trade of agricultural products Y1 - 2011 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - THES A1 - von Nicolai, Christina T1 - The interplay of salt movements and regional tectonics at the passive continental margin of the South Atlantic, Kwanza Basin Y1 - 2011 CY - Potsdam ER - TY - THES A1 - Blaser, Lilian T1 - Bayesian networks for tsunami early warning Y1 - 2011 CY - Potsdam ER -