TY - JOUR A1 - Liu, Sibiao A1 - Sobolev, Stephan A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Pons, Michaël T1 - Controls of the foreland deformation pattern in the orogen-foreland shortening system BT - constraints from high-resolution geodynamic models JF - Tectonics N2 - Controls on the deformation pattern (shortening mode and tectonic style) of orogenic forelands during lithospheric shortening remain poorly understood. Here, we use high-resolution 2D thermomechanical models to demonstrate that orogenic crustal thickness and foreland lithospheric thickness significantly control the shortening mode in the foreland. Pure-shear shortening occurs when the orogenic crust is not thicker than the foreland crust or thick, but the foreland lithosphere is thin (<70-80 km, as in the Puna foreland case). Conversely, simple-shear shortening, characterized by foreland underthrusting beneath the orogen, arises when the orogenic crust is much thicker. This thickened crust results in high gravitational potential energy in the orogen, which triggers the migration of deformation to the foreland under further shortening. Our models present fully thick-skinned, fully thin-skinned, and intermediate tectonic styles in the foreland. The first tectonics forms in a pure-shear shortening mode whereas the others require a simple-shear mode and the presence of thick (>similar to 4 km) sediments that are mechanically weak (friction coefficient 220 s lasting complex earthquake with Mw > 8.2 hit the South Sandwich Trench. Due to its remote location and short interevent times, reported earthquake parameters varied significantly between different international agencies. We studied the complex rupture by combining different seismic source characterization techniques sensitive to different frequency ranges based on teleseismic broadband recordings from 0.001 to 2 Hz, including point and finite fault inversions and the back-projection of high-frequency signals. We also determined moment tensor solutions for 88 aftershocks. The rupture initiated simultaneously with a rupture equivalent to a M-w 7.6 thrust earthquake in the deep part of the seismogenic zone in the central subduction interface and a shallow megathrust rupture, which propagated unilaterally to the south with a very slow rupture velocity of 1.2 km/s and varying strike following the curvature of the trench. The slow rupture covered nearly two-thirds of the entire subduction zone length, and with M-w 8.2 released the bulk of the total moment of the whole earthquake. Tsunami modeling indicates the inferred shallow rupture can explain the tsunami records. The southern segment of the shallow rupture overlaps with another activation of the deeper part of the megathrust equivalent to M-w 7.6. The aftershock distribution confirms the extent and curvature of the rupture. Some mechanisms are consistent with the mainshocks, but many indicate also activation of secondary faults. Rupture velocities and radiated frequencies varied strongly between different stages of the rupture, which might explain the variability of published source parameters. Plain Language Summary The earthquake of 12 August 2021 along the deep-sea trench of the South Sandwich Islands in the South Atlantic reached a magnitude of 8.2 and triggered a tsunami. The automatic earthquake parameter determination of different agencies showed very different results shortly after the earthquake and partially underestimated the tsunami potential of the earthquake. A possible reason was the complex rupture process and that the tsunami was generated by a long and shallow slow slip rupture sandwiched between more conventional fast slip subevents at its northern and southern ends. In addition, the fault surface, which extended over 450 km, was highly curved striking 150 degrees-220 degrees. We investigated the different components of the seismic wavefields in different frequency ranges and with different methods. The analysis shows how even complex earthquakes can be deciphered by combining analyzing methods. The comparison with aftershocks and the triggered tsunami waves confirms our model that explains the South Sandwich rupture by four subevents in the plate boundary along the curved deep-sea trench. Here, the depth, rupture velocities, and slip on each segment of the rupture vary considerably. The method can also be applied to other megathrust earthquakes and help to further improve tsunami warnings in the future. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JB024646 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 127 IS - 11 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Bresch, David N. A1 - Domeisen, Daniela I. A1 - Feser, Frauke A1 - Koszalka, Inga A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Pantillon, Florian A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Pinto, Joaquim G. A1 - Punge, Heinz Jürgen A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Strehlow, Karen A1 - Weisse, Ralf A1 - Wurpts, Andreas T1 - Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards JF - Reviews of geophysics N2 - Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. KW - impact forecasting KW - natural hazards KW - early warning Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704 SN - 8755-1209 SN - 1944-9208 VL - 58 IS - 4 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tilmann, F. A1 - Zhang, Y. A1 - Moreno, M. A1 - Saul, J. A1 - Eckelmann, F. A1 - Palo, M. A1 - Deng, Z. A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Chen, K. A1 - Báez, Juan Carlos A1 - Schurr, B. A1 - Wang, R. A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - The 2015 Illapel earthquake, central Chile: A type case for a characteristic earthquake? JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - On 16 September 2015, the M-W = 8.2 Illapel megathrust earthquake ruptured the Central Chilean margin. Combining inversions of displacement measurements and seismic waveforms with high frequency (HF) teleseismic backprojection, we derive a comprehensive description of the rupture, which also predicts deep ocean tsunami wave heights. We further determine moment tensors and obtain accurate depth estimates for the aftershock sequence. The earthquake nucleated near the coast but then propagated to the north and updip, attaining a peak slip of 5-6 m. In contrast, HF seismic radiation is mostly emitted downdip of the region of intense slip and arrests earlier than the long period rupture, indicating smooth slip along the shallow plate interface in the final phase. A superficially similar earthquake in 1943 with a similar aftershock zone had a much shorter source time function, which matches the duration of HF seismic radiation in the recent event, indicating that the 1943 event lacked the shallow slip. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066963 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 43 SP - 574 EP - 583 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weber, Michael H. A1 - Abu-Ayyash, Khalil A1 - Abueladas, Abdel-Rahman A1 - Agnon, Amotz A1 - Alasonati-Tašárová, Zuzana A1 - Al-Zubi, Hashim A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Bartov, Yuval A1 - Bauer, Klaus A1 - Becken, Michael A1 - Bedrosian, Paul A. A1 - Ben-Avraham, Zvi A1 - Bock, Günter A1 - Bohnhoff, Marco A1 - Bribach, Jens A1 - Dulski, Peter A1 - Ebbing, Joerg A1 - El-Kelani, Radwan J. A1 - Foerster, Andrea A1 - Förster, Hans-Jürgen A1 - Frieslander, Uri A1 - Garfunkel, Zvi A1 - Götze, Hans-Jürgen A1 - Haak, Volker A1 - Haberland, Christian A1 - Hassouneh, Mohammed A1 - Helwig, Stefan L. A1 - Hofstetter, Alfons A1 - Hoffmann-Rothe, Arne A1 - Jaeckel, Karl-Heinz A1 - Janssen, Christoph A1 - Jaser, Darweesh A1 - Kesten, Dagmar A1 - Khatib, Mohammed Ghiath A1 - Kind, Rainer A1 - Koch, Olaf A1 - Koulakov, Ivan A1 - Laske, Maria Gabi A1 - Maercklin, Nils T1 - Anatomy of the Dead Sea transform from lithospheric to microscopic scale N2 - Fault zones are the locations where motion of tectonic plates, often associated with earthquakes, is accommodated. Despite a rapid increase in the understanding of faults in the last decades, our knowledge of their geometry, petrophysical properties, and controlling processes remains incomplete. The central questions addressed here in our study of the Dead Sea Transform (DST) in the Middle East are as follows: (1) What are the structure and kinematics of a large fault zone? (2) What controls its structure and kinematics? (3) How does the DST compare to other plate boundary fault zones? The DST has accommodated a total of 105 km of left-lateral transform motion between the African and Arabian plates since early Miocene (similar to 20 Ma). The DST segment between the Dead Sea and the Red Sea, called the Arava/Araba Fault (AF), is studied here using a multidisciplinary and multiscale approach from the mu m to the plate tectonic scale. We observe that under the DST a narrow, subvertical zone cuts through crust and lithosphere. First, from west to east the crustal thickness increases smoothly from 26 to 39 km, and a subhorizontal lower crustal reflector is detected east of the AF. Second, several faults exist in the upper crust in a 40 km wide zone centered on the AF, but none have kilometer-size zones of decreased seismic velocities or zones of high electrical conductivities in the upper crust expected for large damage zones. Third, the AF is the main branch of the DST system, even though it has accommodated only a part (up to 60 km) of the overall 105 km of sinistral plate motion. Fourth, the AF acts as a barrier to fluids to a depth of 4 km, and the lithology changes abruptly across it. Fifth, in the top few hundred meters of the AF a locally transpressional regime is observed in a 100-300 m wide zone of deformed and displaced material, bordered by subparallel faults forming a positive flower structure. Other segments of the AF have a transtensional character with small pull-aparts along them. The damage zones of the individual faults are only 5-20 m wide at this depth range. Sixth, two areas on the AF show mesoscale to microscale faulting and veining in limestone sequences with faulting depths between 2 and 5 km. Seventh, fluids in the AF are carried downward into the fault zone. Only a minor fraction of fluids is derived from ascending hydrothermal fluids. However, we found that on the kilometer scale the AF does not act as an important fluid conduit. Most of these findings are corroborated using thermomechanical modeling where shear deformation in the upper crust is localized in one or two major faults; at larger depth, shear deformation occurs in a 20-40 km wide zone with a mechanically weak decoupling zone extending subvertically through the entire lithosphere. Y1 - 2009 UR - http://www.agu.org/journals/rg/ U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2008rg000264 SN - 8755-1209 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weber, Michael H. A1 - Abu-Ayyash, Khalil A1 - Abueladas, Abdel-Rahman A1 - Agnon, Amotz A1 - Al-Amoush, H. A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Bartov, Yosef A1 - Baumann, M. A1 - Ben-Avraham, Zvi A1 - Bock, Günter A1 - Bribach, Jens A1 - El-Kelani, R. A1 - Forster, A. A1 - Förster, Hans-Jürgen A1 - Frieslander, U. A1 - Garfunkel, Zvi A1 - Grunewald, Steffen A1 - Gotze, Hans-Jürgen A1 - Haak, Volker A1 - Haberland, Christian A1 - Hassouneh, Mohammed A1 - Helwig, S. A1 - Hofstetter, Alfons A1 - Jackel, K. H. A1 - Kesten, Dagmar A1 - Kind, Rainer A1 - Maercklin, Nils A1 - Mechie, James A1 - Mohsen, Amjad A1 - Neubauer, F. M. A1 - Oberhänsli, Roland A1 - Qabbani, I. A1 - Ritter, O. A1 - Rumpker, G. A1 - Rybakov, M. A1 - Ryberg, Trond A1 - Scherbaum, Frank A1 - Schmidt, J. A1 - Schulze, A. A1 - Sobolev, Stephan A1 - Stiller, M. A1 - Th, T1 - The crustal structure of the Dead Sea Transform N2 - To address one of the central questions of plate tectonics-How do large transform systems work and what are their typical features?-seismic investigations across the Dead Sea Transform (DST), the boundary between the African and Arabian plates in the Middle East, were conducted for the first time. A major component of these investigations was a combined reflection/ refraction survey across the territories of Palestine, Israel and Jordan. The main results of this study are: (1) The seismic basement is offset by 3-5 km under the DST, (2) The DST cuts through the entire crust, broadening in the lower crust, (3) Strong lower crustal reflectors are imaged only on one side of the DST, (4) The seismic velocity sections show a steady increase in the depth of the crust-mantle transition (Moho) from 26 km at the Mediterranean to 39 km under the Jordan highlands, with only a small but visible, asymmetric topography of the Moho under the DST. These observations can be linked to the left-lateral movement of 105 km of the two plates in the last 17 Myr, accompanied by strong deformation within a narrow zone cutting through the entire crust. Comparing the DST and the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system, a strong asymmetry in subhorizontal lower crustal reflectors and a deep reaching deformation zone both occur around the DST and the SAF. The fact that such lower crustal reflectors and deep deformation zones are observed in such different transform systems suggests that these structures are possibly fundamental features of large transform plate boundaries Y1 - 2004 ER -