TY - JOUR A1 - Loeffler, Jörg A1 - Anschlag, Kerstin A1 - Baker, Barry A1 - Finch, Oliver-D. A1 - Diekkrueger, Bernd A1 - Wundram, Dirk A1 - Schroeder, Boris A1 - Pape, Roland A1 - Lundberg, Anders T1 - Mountain ecosystem response to global change JF - Erdkunde : archive for scientific geography N2 - Mountain ecosystems are commonly regarded as being highly sensitive to global change. Due to the system complexity and multifaceted interacting drivers, however, understanding current responses and predicting future changes in these ecosystems is extremely difficult. We aim to discuss potential effects of global change on mountain ecosystems and give examples of the underlying response mechanisms as they are understood at present. Based on the development of scientific global change research in mountains and its recent structures, we identify future research needs, highlighting the major lack and the importance of integrated studies that implement multi-factor, multi-method, multi-scale, and interdisciplinary research. KW - High mountain ecology KW - arctic-alpine environments KW - climate change KW - land use and land cover change KW - tree line alteration KW - range shifts KW - altitudinal zonation Y1 - 2011 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3112/erdkunde.2011.02.06 SN - 0014-0015 VL - 65 IS - 2 SP - 189 EP - 213 PB - Geographisches Inst., Univ. Bonn CY - Goch ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario T1 - Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil JF - Urban water journal N2 - Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts. KW - Business interruption cost KW - water utility company KW - hydrological KW - droughts KW - water security KW - urban water KW - climate change Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564 SN - 1573-062X SN - 1744-9006 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Guzman, Diego A. A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario T1 - Multi-year index-based insurance for adapting Water Utility Companies to hydrological drought BT - case study of a water supply system of the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, Brazil JF - Water N2 - The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, business sustainability. This research estimated the possible economic impacts of business interruption to the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company derived from hydrological drought and how this could be mitigated with an insurance scheme. Multi-year insurance (MYI) was proposed through a set of "change" drivers: the climate driver, through forcing the water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) hydrological tool; the anthropogenic driver, through water demand projections; and the economic driver, associated with recent water price policies adopted by the utility company during water scarcity periods. In our study case, the evaluated indices showed that MYI contracts that cover only longer droughts, regardless of the magnitude, offer better financial performance than contracts that cover all events (in terms of drought duration). Moreover, through MYI contracts, we demonstrate solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and an annual average actuarially fair premium close to the total expected revenue reduction. KW - multi-year insurance KW - climate change KW - hydrological drought KW - water KW - security and economy Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12112954 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 12 IS - 11 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Auffhammer, Maximilian T1 - North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America N2 - There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply sidethrough the mitigation of greenhouse gasesand from the demand sidethrough adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the worlds third-largest electricity marketthe 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level doseresponse functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common doseresponse function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each countrys currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on todays European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigationin line with the Paris agreementto unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (similar to 3 to similar to 7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (similar to-6 to similar to-2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity. KW - electricity consumption KW - peak load KW - climate change KW - adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704339114 SN - 0027-8424 VL - 114 SP - E7910 EP - E7918 PB - National Acad. of Sciences CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Li, Zhen A1 - Spangenberg, Erik A1 - Schicks, Judith Maria A1 - Kempka, Thomas T1 - Numerical Simulation of Coastal Sub-Permafrost Gas Hydrate Formation in the Mackenzie Delta, Canadian Arctic JF - Energies N2 - The Mackenzie Delta (MD) is a permafrost-bearing region along the coasts of the Canadian Arctic which exhibits high sub-permafrost gas hydrate (GH) reserves. The GH occurring at the Mallik site in the MD is dominated by thermogenic methane (CH4), which migrated from deep conventional hydrocarbon reservoirs, very likely through the present fault systems. Therefore, it is assumed that fluid flow transports dissolved CH4 upward and out of the deeper overpressurized reservoirs via the existing polygonal fault system and then forms the GH accumulations in the Kugmallit-Mackenzie Bay Sequences. We investigate the feasibility of this mechanism with a thermo-hydraulic-chemical numerical model, representing a cross section of the Mallik site. We present the first simulations that consider permafrost formation and thawing, as well as the formation of GH accumulations sourced from the upward migrating CH4-rich formation fluid. The simulation results show that temperature distribution, as well as the thickness and base of the ice-bearing permafrost are consistent with corresponding field observations. The primary driver for the spatial GH distribution is the permeability of the host sediments. Thus, the hypothesis on GH formation by dissolved CH4 originating from deeper geological reservoirs is successfully validated. Furthermore, our results demonstrate that the permafrost has been substantially heated to 0.8-1.3 degrees C, triggered by the global temperature increase of about 0.44 degrees C and further enhanced by the Arctic Amplification effect at the Mallik site from the early 1970s to the mid-2000s. KW - gas hydrate KW - permafrost KW - methane KW - faults KW - climate change KW - Mallik KW - numerical simulations Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/en15144986 SN - 1996-1073 VL - 15 IS - 14 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Drewes, Julia A1 - Moreiras, Stella A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Permafrost activity and atmospheric warming in the Argentinian Andes JF - Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology N2 - Rock glaciers are permafrost or glacial landforms of debris and ice that deform under the influence of gravity. Recent estimates hold that, in the semiarid Chilean Andes for example, active rock glaciers store more water than glaciers. However, little is known about how many rock glaciers might decay because of global warming and how much this decay might contribute to water and sediment release. We investigated an inventory of >6500 rock glaciers in the Argentinian Andes, spanning the climatic gradient from the Desert Andes to cold-temperate Tierra del Fuego. We used active rock glaciers as a diagnostic of permafrost, assuming that the toes mark the 0 degrees C isotherm in climate scenarios for the twenty-first century and their impact on freezing conditions near the rock glacier toes. We find that, under future worst case warming, up to 95% of rock glaciers in the southern Desert Andes and in the Central Andes will rest in areas above 0 degrees C and that this freezing level might move up more than twice as much (similar to 500 m) as during the entire Holocene (similar to 200 m). Many active rock glaciers are already well below the current freezing level and exemplify how local controls may confound regional prognoses. A Bayesian Multifactor Analysis of Variance further shows that only in the Central Andes are the toes of active rock glaciers credibly higher than those of inactive ones. Elsewhere in the Andes, active and inactive rock glaciers occupy indistinguishable elevation bands, regardless of aspect, the formation mechanism, or shape of rock glaciers. The state of rock glacier activity predicts differences in elevations of toes to 140 m at best so that regional inference of the distribution of discontinuous permafrost from rock-glacier toes cannot be more accurate than this in the Argentinian Andes. We conclude that the Central Andes-where rock glaciers are largest, cover the most area, and have a greater density than glaciers-is likely to experience the most widespread disturbance to the thermal regime of the twenty-first century. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - rock glacier KW - Argentina KW - permafrost KW - climate change Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.09.005 SN - 0169-555X SN - 1872-695X VL - 323 SP - 13 EP - 24 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera BT - a study on recent and ancient sedimentary DNA JF - Journal of Biogeography N2 - Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming. KW - ancient sedimentary DNA KW - Arctic lakes KW - assembly rules KW - climate change KW - diatoms KW - environmental filtering KW - phylogenetic diversity KW - Siberian tree line Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13786 SN - 0305-0270 SN - 1365-2699 VL - 47 IS - 5 SP - 1166 EP - 1179 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Marzetz, Vanessa A1 - Spijkerman, Elly A1 - Striebel, Maren A1 - Wacker, Alexander T1 - Phytoplankton community responses to interactions between light intensity, light variations, and phosphorus supply JF - Frontiers in Environmental Science N2 - In a changing world, phytoplankton communities face a large variety of challenges including altered light regimes. These alterations are caused by more pronounced stratification due to rising temperatures, enhanced eutrophication, and browning of lakes. Community responses toward these effects can emerge as alterations in physiology, biomass, biochemical composition, or diversity. In this study, we addressed the combined effects of changes in light and nutrient conditions on community responses. In particular, we investigated how light intensity and variability under two nutrient conditions influence (1) fast responses such as adjustments in photosynthesis, (2) intermediate responses such as pigment adaptation and (3) slow responses such as changes in community biomass and species composition. Therefore, we exposed communities consisting of five phytoplankton species belonging to different taxonomic groups to two constant and two variable light intensity treatments combined with two levels of phosphorus supply. The tested phytoplankton communities exhibited increased fast reactions of photosynthetic processes to light variability and light intensity. The adjustment of their light harvesting mechanisms via community pigment composition was not affected by light intensity, variability, or nutrient supply. However, pigment specific effects of light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply on the proportion of the respective pigments were detected. Biomass was positively affected by higher light intensity and nutrient concentrations while the direction of the effect of variability was modulated by light intensity. Light variability had a negative impact on biomass at low, but a positive impact at high light intensity. The effects on community composition were species specific. Generally, the proportion of green algae was higher under high light intensity, whereas the cyanobacterium performed better under low light conditions. In addition to that, the diatom and the cryptophyte performed better with high nutrient supply while the green algae as well as the cyanobacterium performed better at low nutrient conditions. This shows that light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply interactively affect communities. Furthermore, the responses are highly species and pigment specific, thus to clarify the effects of climate change a deeper understanding of the effects of light variability and species interactions within communities is important. KW - phytoplankton communities KW - light variability KW - photosynthetic rate KW - climate change KW - resource competition KW - light intensity (irradiance) KW - pigment composition KW - nutrient supply Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.539733 SN - 2296-665X VL - 8 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Marzetz, Vanessa A1 - Spijkerman, Elly A1 - Striebel, Maren A1 - Wacker, Alexander T1 - Phytoplankton Community Responses to Interactions Between Light Intensity, Light Variations, and Phosphorus Supply JF - Frontiers in Environmental Science N2 - In a changing world, phytoplankton communities face a large variety of challenges including altered light regimes. These alterations are caused by more pronounced stratification due to rising temperatures, enhanced eutrophication, and browning of lakes. Community responses toward these effects can emerge as alterations in physiology, biomass, biochemical composition, or diversity. In this study, we addressed the combined effects of changes in light and nutrient conditions on community responses. In particular, we investigated how light intensity and variability under two nutrient conditions influence (1) fast responses such as adjustments in photosynthesis, (2) intermediate responses such as pigment adaptation and (3) slow responses such as changes in community biomass and species composition. Therefore, we exposed communities consisting of five phytoplankton species belonging to different taxonomic groups to two constant and two variable light intensity treatments combined with two levels of phosphorus supply. The tested phytoplankton communities exhibited increased fast reactions of photosynthetic processes to light variability and light intensity. The adjustment of their light harvesting mechanisms via community pigment composition was not affected by light intensity, variability, or nutrient supply. However, pigment specific effects of light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply on the proportion of the respective pigments were detected. Biomass was positively affected by higher light intensity and nutrient concentrations while the direction of the effect of variability was modulated by light intensity. Light variability had a negative impact on biomass at low, but a positive impact at high light intensity. The effects on community composition were species specific. Generally, the proportion of green algae was higher under high light intensity, whereas the cyanobacterium performed better under low light conditions. In addition to that, the diatom and the cryptophyte performed better with high nutrient supply while the green algae as well as the cyanobacterium performed better at low nutrient conditions. This shows that light intensity, light variability, and nutrient supply interactively affect communities. Furthermore, the responses are highly species and pigment specific, thus to clarify the effects of climate change a deeper understanding of the effects of light variability and species interactions within communities is important. KW - phytoplankton communities KW - light variability KW - photosynthetic rate KW - climate change KW - resource competition KW - light intensity (irradiance) KW - pigment composition KW - nutrient supply Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2020.539733 SN - 2296-665X VL - 8 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mogrovejo Arias, Diana Carolina A1 - Brill, Florian H. H. A1 - Wagner, Dirk T1 - Potentially pathogenic bacteria isolated from diverse habitats in Spitsbergen, Svalbard JF - Environmental earth sciences N2 - The Arctic ecosystem, a reservoir of genetic microbial diversity, represents a virtually unlimited source of microorganisms that could interact with human beings. Despite continuous exploration of Arctic habitats and description of their microbial communities, bacterial phenotypes commonly associated with pathogenicity, such as hemolytic activity, have rarely been reported. In this study, samples of snow, fresh and marine water, soil, and sediment from several habitats in the Arctic archipelago of Svalbard were collected during Summer, 2017. Bacterial isolates were obtained after incubation on oligotrophic media at different temperatures and their hemolytic potential was assessed on sheep blood agar plates. Partial (alpha) or true (beta) hemolysis was observed in 32 out of 78 bacterial species. Genes expressing cytolytic compounds, such as hemolysins, likely increase the general fitness of the producing microorganisms and confer a competitive advantage over the availability of nutrients in natural habitats. In environmental species, the nutrient-acquisition function of these compounds presumably precedes their function as toxins for mammalian erythrocytes. However, in the light of global warming, the presence of hemolytic bacteria in Arctic environments highlights the possible risks associated with these microorganisms in the event of habitat melting/destruction, ecosystem transition, and re-colonization. KW - Arctic KW - Svalbard KW - hemolysins KW - climate change KW - pathogens KW - virulence Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s12665-020-8853-4 SN - 1866-6280 SN - 1866-6299 VL - 79 IS - 5 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ; Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Chan, Sander A1 - Boran, Idil A1 - van Asselt, Harro A1 - Iacobuta, Gabriela A1 - Niles, Navam A1 - Rietig, Katharine A1 - Scobie, Michelle A1 - Bansard, Jennifer S. A1 - Delgado Pugley, Deborah A1 - Delina, Laurence L. A1 - Eichhorn, Friederike A1 - Ellinger, Paula A1 - Enechi, Okechukwu A1 - Hale, Thomas A1 - Hermwille, Lukas A1 - Hickmann, Thomas A1 - Honegger, Matthias A1 - Hurtado Epstein, Andrea A1 - Theuer, Stephanie La Hoz A1 - Mizo, Robert A1 - Sun, Yixian A1 - Toussaint, Patrick A1 - Wambugu, Geoffrey T1 - Promises and risks of nonstate action in climate and sustainability governance JF - Wiley interdisciplinary reviews : Climate change KW - climate change KW - governance KW - nonstate actions KW - SDGs KW - sustainable development Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.572 SN - 1757-7780 SN - 1757-7799 VL - 10 IS - 3 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Imholt, Christian A1 - Reil, Daniela A1 - Eccard, Jana A1 - Jacob, Daniela A1 - Hempelmann, Nils A1 - Jacob, Jens T1 - Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) JF - Pest management science N2 - BACKGROUND Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics. RESULTS Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance. CONCLUSION Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. (c) 2014 Society of Chemical Industry KW - climate change KW - population dynamics KW - bank vole KW - regression tree KW - outbreak Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.3838 SN - 1526-498X SN - 1526-4998 VL - 71 IS - 2 SP - 166 EP - 172 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pan, Xiaohui A1 - Wang, Weishi A1 - Liu, Tie A1 - Huang, Yue A1 - De Maeyer, Philippe A1 - Guo, Chenyu A1 - Ling, Yunan A1 - Akmalov, Shamshodbek T1 - Quantitative detection and attribution of groundwater level variations in the Amu Darya Delta JF - Water N2 - In the past few decades, the shrinkage of the Aral Sea is one of the biggest ecological catastrophes caused by human activity. To quantify the joint impact of both human activities and climate change on groundwater, the spatiotemporal groundwater dynamic characteristics in the Amu Darya Delta of the Aral Sea from 1999 to 2017 were analyzed, using the groundwater level, climate conditions, remote sensing data, and irrigation information. Statistics analysis was adopted to analyze the trend of groundwater variation, including intensity, periodicity, spatial structure, while the Pearson correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) were used to quantify the impact of climate change and human activities on the variabilities of the groundwater level. Results reveal that the local groundwater dynamic has varied considerably. From 1999 to 2002, the groundwater level dropped from -189 cm to -350 cm. Until 2017, the groundwater level rose back to -211 cm with fluctuation. Seasonally, the fluctuation period of groundwater level and irrigation water was similar, both were about 18 months. Spatially, the groundwater level kept stable within the irrigation area and bare land but fluctuated drastically around the irrigation area. The Pearson correlation analysis reveals that the dynamic of the groundwater level is closely related to irrigation activity within the irrigation area (Nukus: -0.583), while for the place adjacent to the Aral Sea, the groundwater level is closely related to the Large Aral Sea water level (Muynak: 0.355). The results of PCA showed that the cumulative contribution rate of the first three components exceeds 85%. The study reveals that human activities have a great impact on groundwater, effective management, and the development of water resources in arid areas is an essential prerequisite for ecological protection. KW - groundwater level variation KW - climate change KW - human activities KW - statistical analysis KW - Amu Darya Delta Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102869 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 12 IS - 10 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tesselaar, Max A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Haer, Toon A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Tiggeloven, Timothy A1 - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H. T1 - Regional inequalities in flood insurance affordability and uptake under climate change JF - Sustainability N2 - Flood insurance coverage can enhance financial resilience of households to changing flood risk caused by climate change. However, income inequalities imply that not all households can afford flood insurance. The uptake of flood insurance in voluntary markets may decline when flood risk increases as a result of climate change. This increase in flood risk may cause substantially higher risk-based insurance premiums, reduce the willingness to purchase flood insurance, and worsen problems with the unaffordability of coverage for low-income households. A socio-economic tipping-point can occur when the functioning of a formal flood insurance system is hampered by diminishing demand for coverage. In this study, we examine whether such a tipping-point can occur in Europe for current flood insurance systems under different trends in future flood risk caused by climate and socio-economic change. This analysis gives insights into regional inequalities concerning the ability to continue to use flood insurance as an instrument to adapt to changing flood risk. For this study, we adapt the "Dynamic Integrated Flood and Insurance" (DIFI) model by integrating new flood risk simulations in the model that enable examining impacts from various scenarios of climate and socio-economic change on flood insurance premiums and consumer demand. Our results show rising unaffordability and declining demand for flood insurance across scenarios towards 2080. Under a high climate change scenario, simulations show the occurrence of a socio-economic tipping-point in several regions, where insurance uptake almost disappears. A tipping-point and related inequalities in the ability to use flood insurance as an adaptation instrument can be mitigated by introducing reforms of flood insurance arrangements. KW - climate change KW - flood risk management KW - insurance KW - socio-economic KW - tipping-point KW - adaptation KW - partial equilibrium modeling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/su12208734 SN - 2071-1050 VL - 12 IS - 20 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kong, Xiangzhen A1 - Ghaffar, Salman A1 - Determann, Maria A1 - Friese, Kurt A1 - Jomaa, Seifeddine A1 - Mi, Chenxi A1 - Shatwell, Tom A1 - Rinke, Karsten A1 - Rode, Michael T1 - Reservoir water quality deterioration due to deforestation emphasizes the indirect effects of global change JF - Water research : a journal of the International Association on Water Quality (IAWQ) N2 - Deforestation is currently a widespread phenomenon and a growing environmental concern in the era of rapid climate change. In temperate regions, it is challenging to quantify the impacts of deforestation on the catchment dynamics and downstream aquatic ecosystems such as reservoirs and disentangle these from direct climate change impacts, let alone project future changes to inform management. Here, we tackled this issue by investigating a unique catchment-reservoir system with two reservoirs in distinct trophic states (meso- and eutrophic), both of which drain into the largest drinking water reservoir in Germany. Due to the prolonged droughts in 2015-2018, the catchment of the mesotrophic reservoir lost an unprecedented area of forest (exponential increase since 2015 and ca. 17.1% loss in 2020 alone). We coupled catchment nutrient exports (HYPE) and reservoir ecosystem dynamics (GOTM-WET) models using a process-based modeling approach. The coupled model was validated with datasets spanning periods of rapid deforestation, which makes our future projections highly robust. Results show that in a short-term time scale (by 2035), increasing nutrient flux from the catchment due to vast deforestation (80% loss) can turn the mesotrophic reservoir into a eutrophic state as its counterpart. Our results emphasize the more prominent impacts of deforestation than the direct impact of climate warming in impairment of water quality and ecological services to downstream aquatic ecosystems. Therefore, we propose to evaluate the impact of climate change on temperate reservoirs by incorporating a time scale-dependent context, highlighting the indirect impact of deforestation in the short-term scale. In the long-term scale (e.g. to 2100), a guiding hypothesis for future research may be that indirect effects (e.g., as mediated by catchment dynamics) are as important as the direct effects of climate warming on aquatic ecosystems. KW - deforestation KW - climate change KW - temperate regions KW - reservoir KW - eutrophication KW - process-based modeling Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.watres.2022.118721 SN - 0043-1354 SN - 1879-2448 VL - 221 PB - Elsevier Science CY - Amsterdam [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kuhla, Kilian A1 - Willner, Sven N. A1 - Otto, Christian A1 - Geiger, Tobias A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Ripple resonance amplifies economic welfare loss from weather extremes JF - Environmental research letters : ERL / Institute of Physics N2 - The most complex but potentially most severe impacts of climate change are caused by extreme weather events. In a globally connected economy, damages can cause remote perturbations and cascading consequences-a ripple effect along supply chains. Here we show an economic ripple resonance that amplifies losses when consecutive or overlapping weather extremes and their repercussions interact. This amounts to an average amplification of 21% for climate-induced heat stress, river floods, and tropical cyclones. Modeling the temporal evolution of 1.8 million trade relations between >7000 regional economic sectors, we find that the regional responses to future extremes are strongly heterogeneous also in their resonance behavior. The induced effect on welfare varies between gains due to increased demand in some regions and losses due to demand or supply shortages in others. Within the current global supply network, the ripple resonance effect of extreme weather is strongest in high-income economies-an important effect to consider when evaluating past and future economic climate impacts. KW - consecutive disasters KW - economic ripple resonance KW - repercussion resonance KW - weather extremes KW - supply network KW - climate impacts KW - climate change Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2932 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 16 IS - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reibold, Kerstin T1 - Settler Colonialism, Decolonization, and Climate Change JF - Journal of applied philosophy N2 - The article proposes that climate change makes enduring colonial injustices and structures visible. It focuses on the imposition and dominance of colonial concepts of land and self-determination on Indigenous peoples in settler states. It argues that if the dominance of these colonial frameworks remains unaddressed, the progressing climate change will worsen other colonial injustices, too. Specifically, Indigenous self-determination capabilities will be increasingly undermined, and Indigenous peoples will experience the loss of what they understand as relevant land from within their own ontologies of land. The article holds that even if settler states strive to repair colonial injustices, these efforts will be unsuccessful if climate change occurs and decolonization is pursued within the framework of a settler colonial ontology of land. Therefore, the article suggests, decolonization of the ontologies of land and concepts of self-determination is a precondition for a just response to climate change. KW - territorial rights KW - indigenous rights KW - climate change KW - colonialism Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/japp.12573 SN - 0264-3758 SN - 1468-5930 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mielke, Jahel T1 - Signals for 2 degrees C BT - the influence of policies, market factors and civil society actions on investment decisions for green infrastructure JF - Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment N2 - The targets of the Paris Agreement make it necessary to redirect finance flows towards sustainable, low-carbon infrastructures and technologies. Currently, the potential of institutional investors to help finance this transition is widely discussed. Thus, this paper takes a closer look at influence factors for green investment decisions of large European insurance companies. With a mix of qualitative and quantitative methods, the importance of policy, market and civil society signals is evaluated. In summary, respondents favor measures that promote green investment, such as feed-in tariffs or adjustments of capital charges for green assets, over ones that make carbon-intensive investments less attractive, such as the phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies or a carbon price. While investors currently see a low impact of the carbon price, they rank a substantial reform as an important signal for the future. Respondents also emphasize that policy signals have to be coherent and credible to coordinate expectations. KW - Green infrastructure investment KW - policy signals KW - green finance KW - climate change KW - institutional investors Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/20430795.2018.1528809 SN - 2043-0795 SN - 2043-0809 VL - 9 IS - 2 SP - 87 EP - 115 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Grimm-Seyfarth, Annegret A1 - Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste A1 - Gruber, Bernd A1 - Henle, Klaus T1 - Some like it hot BT - from individual to population responses of an arboreal arid-zone gecko to local and distant climate JF - Ecological monographs N2 - Accumulating evidence has demonstrated considerable impact of climate change on biodiversity, with terrestrial ectotherms being particularly vulnerable. While climate-induced range shifts are often addressed in the literature, little is known about the underlying ecological responses at individual and population levels. Using a 30-yr monitoring study of the long-living nocturnal gecko Gehyra variegata in arid Australia, we determined the relative contribution of climatic factors acting locally (temperature, rainfall) or distantly (La Nina induced flooding) on ecological processes ranging from traits at the individual level (body condition, body growth) to the demography at population level (survival, sexual maturity, population sizes). We also investigated whether thermoregulatory activity during both active (night) and resting (daytime) periods of the day can explain these responses. Gehyra variegata responded to local and distant climatic effects. Both high temperatures and high water availability enhanced individual and demographic parameters. Moreover, the impact of water availability was scale independent as local rainfall and La Nina induced flooding compensated each other. When water availability was low, however, extremely high temperatures delayed body growth and sexual maturity while survival of individuals and population sizes remained stable. This suggests a trade-off with traits at the individual level that may potentially buffer the consequences of adverse climatic conditions at the population level. Moreover, hot temperatures did not impact nocturnal nor diurnal behavior. Instead, only cool temperatures induced diurnal thermoregulatory behavior with individuals moving to exposed hollow branches and even outside tree hollows for sun-basking during the day. Since diurnal behavioral thermoregulation likely induced costs on fitness, this could decrease performance at both individual and population level under cool temperatures. Our findings show that water availability rather than high temperature is the limiting factor in our focal population of G.variegata. In contrast to previous studies, we stress that drier rather than warmer conditions are expected to be detrimental for nocturnal desert reptiles. Identifying the actual limiting climatic factors at different scales and their functional interactions at different ecological levels is critical to be able to predict reliably future population dynamics and support conservation planning in arid ecosystems. KW - behavioral adaptation KW - body condition KW - body growth rate KW - climate change KW - El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) KW - Gehyra variegata KW - population dynamics KW - population size KW - survival KW - thermoregulation Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1301 SN - 0012-9615 SN - 1557-7015 VL - 88 IS - 3 SP - 336 EP - 352 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Coch, Caroline A1 - Lamoureux, Scott F. A1 - Knoblauch, Christian A1 - Eischeid, Isabell A1 - Fritz, Michael A1 - Obu, Jaroslav A1 - Lantuit, Hugues T1 - Summer rainfall dissolved organic carbon, solute, and sediment fluxes in a small Arctic coastal catchment on Herschel Island (Yukon Territory, Canada) JF - Artic science N2 - Coastal ecosystems in the Arctic are affected by climate change. As summer rainfall frequency and intensity are projected to increase in the future, more organic matter, nutrients and sediment could bemobilized and transported into the coastal nearshore zones. However, knowledge of current processes and future changes is limited. We investigated streamflow dynamics and the impacts of summer rainfall on lateral fluxes in a small coastal catchment on Herschel Island in the western Canadian Arctic. For the summer monitoring periods of 2014-2016, mean dissolved organic matter flux over 17 days amounted to 82.7 +/- 30.7 kg km(-2) and mean total dissolved solids flux to 5252 +/- 1224 kg km(-2). Flux of suspended sediment was 7245 kg km(-2) in 2015, and 369 kg km(-2) in 2016. We found that 2.0% of suspended sediment was composed of particulate organic carbon. Data and hysteresis analysis suggest a limited supply of sediments; their interannual variability is most likely caused by short-lived localized disturbances. In contrast, our results imply that dissolved organic carbon is widely available throughout the catchment and exhibits positive linear relationship with runoff. We hypothesize that increased projected rainfall in the future will result in a similar increase of dissolved organic carbon fluxes. KW - permafrost KW - hydrology KW - lateral fluxes KW - hysteresis KW - climate change Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2018-0010 SN - 2368-7460 VL - 4 IS - 4 SP - 750 EP - 780 PB - Canadian science publishing CY - Ottawa ER -