TY - JOUR A1 - Maes, Sybryn L. A1 - Perring, Michael P. A1 - Vanhellemont, Margot A1 - Depauw, Leen A1 - Van den Bulcke, Jan A1 - Brumelis, Guntis A1 - Brunet, Jorg A1 - Decocq, Guillaume A1 - den Ouden, Jan A1 - Härdtle, Werner A1 - Hedl, Radim A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Heinrichs, Steffi A1 - Jaroszewicz, Bogdan A1 - Kopecký, Martin A1 - Malis, Frantisek A1 - Wulf, Monika A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Environmental drivers interactively affect individual tree growth across temperate European forests JF - Global change biology N2 - Forecasting the growth of tree species to future environmental changes requires abetter understanding of its determinants. Tree growth is known to respond to global‐change drivers such as climate change or atmospheric deposition, as well as to localland‐use drivers such as forest management. Yet, large geographical scale studiesexamining interactive growth responses to multiple global‐change drivers are relativelyscarce and rarely consider management effects. Here, we assessed the interactiveeffects of three global‐change drivers (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposi-tion) on individual tree growth of three study species (Quercus robur/petraea, Fagus syl-vatica and Fraxinus excelsior). We sampled trees along spatial environmental gradientsacross Europe and accounted for the effects of management for Quercus. We collectedincrement cores from 267 trees distributed over 151 plots in 19 forest regions andcharacterized their neighbouring environment to take into account potentially confounding factors such as tree size, competition, soil conditions and elevation. Wedemonstrate that growth responds interactively to global‐change drivers, with species ‐specific sensitivities to the combined factors. Simultaneously high levels of precipita-tion and deposition benefited Fraxinus, but negatively affected Quercus’ growth, high-lighting species‐specific interactive tree growth responses to combined drivers. ForFagus, a stronger growth response to higher temperatures was found when precipita-tion was also higher, illustrating the potential negative effects of drought stress underwarming for this species. Furthermore, we show that past forest management canmodulate the effects of changing temperatures on Quercus’ growth; individuals in plotswith a coppicing history showed stronger growth responses to higher temperatures.Overall, our findings highlight how tree growth can be interactively determined by glo-bal‐change drivers, and how these growth responses might be modulated by past for-est management. By showing future growth changes for scenarios of environmentalchange, we stress the importance of considering multiple drivers, including past man-agement and their interactions, when predicting tree growth. KW - basal area increment KW - climate change KW - Fagus KW - Fraxinus KW - historical ecology KW - nitrogen deposition KW - Quercus KW - tree-ring analysis Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14493 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 25 IS - 1 SP - 201 EP - 217 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Palmer, Matthew D. A1 - Gregory, Jonathan A1 - Bagge, Meike A1 - Calvert, Daley A1 - Hagedoorn, Jan Marius A1 - Howard, Tom A1 - Klemann, Volker A1 - Lowe, Jason A. A1 - Roberts, Chris A1 - Slangen, Aimee B. A. A1 - Spada, Giorgio T1 - Exploring the drivers of global and local sea‐level change over the 21st century and beyond JF - Earth's future N2 - We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties, (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections, and (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios, and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon, and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of local variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlight the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large ( > 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, time scale, and emissions scenario. KW - climate change KW - CMIP5 models KW - RCP scenarios KW - sea-level projections KW - tide gauge observations Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2019EF001413 SN - 2328-4277 VL - 8 IS - 9 SP - 1 EP - 25 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Seifert, Linda I. A1 - Weithoff, Guntram A1 - Vos, Matthijs T1 - Extreme heat changes post-heat wave community reassembly JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - Climate forecasts project further increases in extremely high-temperature events. These present threats to biodiversity, as they promote population declines and local species extinctions. This implies that ecological communities will need to rely more strongly on recovery processes, such as recolonization from a meta-community context. It is poorly understood how differences in extreme event intensity change the outcome of subsequent community reassembly and if such extremes modify the biotic environment in ways that would prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. We studied replicated aquatic communities consisting of algae and herbivorous rotifers in a design that involved a control and two different heat wave intensity treatments (29 degrees C and 39 degrees C). Animal species that suffered heat-induced extinction were subsequently re-introduced at the same time and density, in each of the two treatments. The 39 degrees C treatment led to community closure in all replicates, meaning that a previously successful herbivore species could not re-establish itself in the postheat wave community. In contrast, such closure never occurred after a 29 degrees C event. Heat wave intensity determined the number of herbivore extinctions and strongly affected algal relative abundances. Re-introduced herbivore species were thus confronted with significantly different food environments. This ecological legacy generated by heat wave intensity led to differences in the failure or success of herbivore species re-introductions. Reassembly was significantly more variable, and hence less predictable, after an extreme heat wave, and was more canalized after a moderate one. Our results pertain to relatively simple communities, but they suggest that ecological legacies introduced by extremely high-temperature events may change subsequent ecological recovery and even prevent the successful re-establishment of lost species. Knowing the processes promoting and preventing ecological recovery is crucial to the success of species re-introduction programs and to our ability to restore ecosystems damaged by environmental extremes. KW - Biodiversity KW - climate change KW - conservation KW - ecological restoration KW - extinction KW - extreme temperature events KW - global warming KW - maximum temperature KW - variability Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1490 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 5 IS - 11 SP - 2140 EP - 2148 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kundela, Guenther A1 - Dosio, Alessandro A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing ClimateAssessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria JF - Climate : open access journal N2 - Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite. KW - climate change KW - critical meteorological condition KW - frequency analysis KW - natural hazard management KW - railway transportation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020025 SN - 2225-1154 VL - 4 SP - 914 EP - 931 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Grimm-Seyfarth, Annegret A1 - Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste A1 - Henle, Klaus T1 - Functional traits determine the different effects of prey, predators, and climatic extremes on desert reptiles JF - Ecosphere : the magazine of the International Ecology University N2 - Terrestrial reptiles are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Their highest density and diversity can be found in hot drylands, ecosystems which demonstrate extreme climatic conditions. However, reptiles are not isolated systems but part of a large species assemblage with many trophic dependencies. While direct relations among climatic conditions, invertebrates, vegetation, or reptiles have already been explored, to our knowledge, species’ responses to direct and indirect pathways of multiple climatic and biotic factors and their interactions have rarely been examined comprehensively. We investigated direct and indirect effects of climatic and biotic parameters on the individual (body condition) and population level (occupancy) of eight abundant lizard species with different functional traits in an arid Australian lizard community using a 30‐yr multi‐trophic monitoring study. We used structural equation modeling to disentangle single and interactive effects. We then assessed whether species could be grouped into functional groups according to their functional traits and their responses to different parameters. We found that lizard species differed strongly in how they responded to climatic and biotic factors. However, the factors to which they responded seemed to be determined by their functional traits. While responses on body condition were determined by habitat, activity time, and prey, responses on occupancy were determined by habitat specialization, body size, and longevity. Our findings highlight the importance of indirect pathways through climatic and biotic interactions, which should be included into predictive models to increase accuracy when predicting species’ responses to climate change. Since one might never obtain all mechanistic pathways at the species level, we propose an approach of identifying relevant species traits that help grouping species into functional groups at different ecological levels, which could then be used for predictive modeling. KW - Australia KW - climate change KW - Gekkonidae KW - periodic flooding KW - Scincidae KW - species functional traits KW - species interactions KW - structural equation modeling Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2865 SN - 2150-8925 VL - 10 IS - 9 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lehmann, Jascha A1 - Coumou, Dim A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Eliseev, Alexey V. A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - Future changes in extratropical storm tracks and baroclinicity under climate change JF - Environmental research letters N2 - The weather in Eurasia, Australia, and North and South America is largely controlled by the strength and position of extratropical storm tracks. Future climate change will likely affect these storm tracks and the associated transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour. Many recent studies have analyzed how storm tracks will change under climate change, and how these changes are related to atmospheric dynamics. However, there are still discrepancies between different studies on how storm tracks will change under future climate scenarios. Here, we show that under global warming the CMIP5 ensemble of coupled climate models projects only little relative changes in vertically averaged mid-latitude mean storm track activity during the northern winter, but agree in projecting a substantial decrease during summer. Seasonal changes in the Southern Hemisphere show the opposite behaviour, with an intensification in winter and no change during summer. These distinct seasonal changes in northern summer and southern winter storm tracks lead to an amplified seasonal cycle in a future climate. Similar changes are seen in the mid-latitude mean Eady growth rate maximum, a measure that combines changes in vertical shear and static stability based on baroclinic instability theory. Regression analysis between changes in the storm tracks and changes in the maximum Eady growth rate reveal that most models agree in a positive association between the two quantities over mid-latitude regions. KW - storm tracks KW - baroclinicity KW - climate change Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/8/084002 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 9 IS - 8 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Perring, Michael P. A1 - Bernhardt-Roemermann, Markus A1 - Baeten, Lander A1 - Midolo, Gabriele A1 - Blondeel, Haben A1 - Depauw, Leen A1 - Landuyt, Dries A1 - Maes, Sybryn L. A1 - De Lombaerde, Emiel A1 - Caron, Maria Mercedes A1 - Vellend, Mark A1 - Brunet, Joerg A1 - Chudomelova, Marketa A1 - Decocq, Guillaume A1 - Diekmann, Martin A1 - Dirnboeck, Thomas A1 - Doerfler, Inken A1 - Durak, Tomasz A1 - De Frenne, Pieter A1 - Gilliam, Frank S. A1 - Hedl, Radim A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Hommel, Patrick A1 - Jaroszewicz, Bogdan A1 - Kirby, Keith J. A1 - Kopecky, Martin A1 - Lenoir, Jonathan A1 - Li, Daijiang A1 - Malis, Frantisek A1 - Mitchell, Fraser J. G. A1 - Naaf, Tobias A1 - Newman, Miles A1 - Petrik, Petr A1 - Reczynska, Kamila A1 - Schmidt, Wolfgang A1 - Standovar, Tibor A1 - Swierkosz, Krzysztof A1 - Van Calster, Hans A1 - Vild, Ondrej A1 - Wagner, Eva Rosa A1 - Wulf, Monika A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Global environmental change effects on plant community composition trajectories depend upon management legacies JF - Global change biology N2 - The contemporary state of functional traits and species richness in plant communities depends on legacy effects of past disturbances. Whether temporal responses of community properties to current environmental changes are altered by such legacies is, however, unknown. We expect global environmental changes to interact with land-use legacies given different community trajectories initiated by prior management, and subsequent responses to altered resources and conditions. We tested this expectation for species richness and functional traits using 1814 survey-resurvey plot pairs of understorey communities from 40 European temperate forest datasets, syntheses of management transitions since the year 1800, and a trait database. We also examined how plant community indicators of resources and conditions changed in response to management legacies and environmental change. Community trajectories were clearly influenced by interactions between management legacies from over 200 years ago and environmental change. Importantly, higher rates of nitrogen deposition led to increased species richness and plant height in forests managed less intensively in 1800 (i.e., high forests), and to decreases in forests with a more intensive historical management in 1800 (i.e., coppiced forests). There was evidence that these declines in community variables in formerly coppiced forests were ameliorated by increased rates of temperature change between surveys. Responses were generally apparent regardless of sites’ contemporary management classifications, although sometimes the management transition itself, rather than historic or contemporary management types, better explained understorey responses. Main effects of environmental change were rare, although higher rates of precipitation change increased plant height, accompanied by increases in fertility indicator values. Analysis of indicator values suggested the importance of directly characterising resources and conditions to better understand legacy and environmental change effects. Accounting for legacies of past disturbance can reconcile contradictory literature results and appears crucial to anticipating future responses to global environmental change. KW - biodiversity change KW - climate change KW - disturbance regime KW - forestREplot KW - herbaceous layer KW - management intensity KW - nitrogen deposition KW - plant functional traits KW - time lag KW - vegetation resurvey Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14030 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 24 IS - 4 SP - 1722 EP - 1740 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geiger, Tobias A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - High-income does not protect against hurricane losses JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Damage due to tropical cyclones accounts for more than 50% of all meteorologically-induced economic losses worldwide. Their nominal impact is projected to increase substantially as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. So far, historical losses due to tropical cyclones have been found to increase less than linearly with a nation's affected gross domestic product (GDP). Here we show that for the United States this scaling is caused by a sub-linear increase with affected population while relative losses scale super-linearly with per capita income. The finding is robust across a multitude of empirically derived damage models that link the storm's wind speed, exposed population, and per capita GDP to reported losses. The separation of both socio-economic predictors strongly affects the projection of potential future hurricane losses. Separating the effects of growth in population and per-capita income, per hurricane losses with respect to national GDP are projected to triple by the end of the century under unmitigated climate change, while they are estimated to decrease slightly without the separation. KW - climate change KW - tropical cyclones KW - damage KW - meteorological extremes KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huang, Xiaozhong A1 - Peng, Wei A1 - Rudaya, Natalia A1 - Grimm, Eric C. A1 - Chen, Xuemei A1 - Cao, Xianyong A1 - Zhang, Jun A1 - Pan, Xiaoduo A1 - Liu, Sisi A1 - Chen, Chunzhu A1 - Chen, Fahu T1 - Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics in the Altai Mountains and Surrounding Areas JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - A comprehensive understanding of the regional vegetation responses to long-term climate change will help to forecast Earth system dynamics. Based on a new well-dated pollen data set from Kanas Lake and a review on the published pollen records in and around the Altai Mountains, the regional vegetation dynamics and forcing mechanisms are discussed. In the Altai Mountains, the forest optimum occurred during 10-7ka for the upper forest zone and the tree line decline and/or ecological shifts were caused by climatic cooling from around 7ka. In the lower forest zone, the forest reached an optimum in the middle Holocene, and then increased openness of the forest, possibly caused by both climate cooling and human activities, took place in the late Holocene. In the lower basins or plains around the Altai Mountains, the development of protograssland or forest benefited from increasing humidity in the middle to late Holocene. Plain Language Summary In the Altai Mountains and surrounding area of central Asia, the previous studies of the Holocene paleovegetation and paleoclimate studies did not discuss the different ecological limiting factors for the vegetation in high mountains and low-elevation areas due to limited data. With accumulating fossil pollen data and surface pollen data, it is possible to understand better the geomorphological effect on the vegetation and discrepancies of vegetation/forest responses to large-scale climate forcing, and it is also possible to get reliable quantitative reconstructions of climate. Here our new pollen data and review on the published fossil pollen data will help us to look into the past climate change and vertical evolution of vegetation in this important area of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on our study, it can be concluded that the growth of taiga forest in the wetter areas may be promoted under a future warmer climate, while the forest in the relatively dry areas is liable to decline, and the different vegetation dynamics will contribute to future high-resolution coupled vegetation-climate model for Earth system modelling. KW - climate change KW - Kanas Lake KW - Altai Mountains KW - vegetation dynamics KW - taiga forest Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078028 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 45 IS - 13 SP - 6628 EP - 6636 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sælen, Håkon A1 - Hovi, Jon A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Underdal, Arild T1 - How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement JF - Environmental science & policy N2 - Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2 degrees C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others' promises and contributions. Second, while the 2 degrees C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreements institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions. KW - climate change KW - Paris agreement KW - President Trump KW - 2 degrees C target KW - agent-based modeling KW - reciprocity Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.011 SN - 1462-9011 SN - 1873-6416 VL - 108 SP - 121 EP - 132 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sarmento, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Thuiller, Wilfried A1 - Higgins, Steven A1 - Midgley, Guy F. A1 - Rebelo, Anthony G. A1 - Rouget, Mathieu A1 - Schurr, Frank Martin T1 - Impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on the range dynamics of South African Proteaceae JF - Diversity & distributions : a journal of biological invasions and biodiversity N2 - Aim To assess how habitat loss and climate change interact in affecting the range dynamics of species and to quantify how predicted range dynamics depend on demographic properties of species and the severity of environmental change. Location South African Cape Floristic Region. Methods We use data-driven demographic models to assess the impacts of past habitat loss and future climate change on range size, range filing and abundances of eight species of woody plants (Proteaceae). The species-specific models employ a hybrid approach that simulates population dynamics and long-distance dispersal on top of expected spatio-temporal dynamics of suitable habitat. Results Climate change was mainly predicted to reduce range size and range filling (because of a combination of strong habitat shifts with low migration ability). In contrast, habitat loss mostly decreased mean local abundance. For most species and response measures, the combination of habitat loss and climate change had the most severe effect. Yet, this combined effect was mostly smaller than expected from adding or multiplying effects of the individual environmental drivers. This seems to be because climate change shifts suitable habitats to regions less affected by habitat loss. Interspecific variation in range size responses depended mostly on the severity of environmental change, whereas responses in range filling and local abundance depended mostly on demographic properties of species. While most surviving populations concentrated in areas that remain climatically suitable, refugia for multiple species were overestimated by simply overlying habitat models and ignoring demography. Main conclusions Demographic models of range dynamics can simultaneously predict the response of range size, abundance and range filling to multiple drivers of environmental change. Demographic knowledge is particularly needed to predict abundance responses and to identify areas that can serve as biodiversity refugia under climate change. These findings highlight the need for data-driven, demographic assessments in conservation biogeography. KW - biodiversity refugia KW - CFR Proteaceae KW - climate change KW - demographic properties KW - habitat loss KW - local abundances KW - process-based range models KW - range filling KW - range size KW - species distribution models Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12011 SN - 1366-9516 VL - 19 IS - 4 SP - 363 EP - 376 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scherler, Dirk A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo A1 - Wulf, Hendrik A1 - Preusser, Frank A1 - Strecker, Manfred T1 - Increased late Pleistocene erosion rates during fluvial aggradation in the Garhwal Himalaya, northern India JF - Earth & planetary science letters N2 - The response of surface processes to climatic forcing is fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on landscape evolution. In the Himalaya, most large rivers feature prominent fill terraces that record an imbalance between sediment supply and transport capacity, presumably due to past fluctuations in monsoon precipitation and/or effects of glaciation at high elevation. Here, we present volume estimates, chronological constraints, and Be-10-derived paleo-erosion rates from a prominent valley fill in the Yamuna catchment, Garhwal Himalaya, to elucidate the coupled response of rivers and hillslopes to Pleistocene climate change. Although precise age control is complicated due to methodological problems, the new data support formation of the valley fill during the late Pleistocene and its incision during the Holocene. We interpret this timing to indicate that changes in discharge and river-transport capacity were major controls. Compared to the present day, late Pleistocene hillslope erosion rates were higher by a factor of similar to 2-4, but appear to have decreased during valley aggradation. The higher late Pleistocene erosion rates are largely unrelated to glacial erosion and could be explained by enhanced sediment production on steep hillslopes due to increased periglacial activity that declined as temperatures increased. Alternatively, erosion rates that decrease during valley aggradation are also consistent with reduced landsliding from threshold hillslopes as a result of rising base levels. In that case, the similarity of paleo-erosion rates near the end of the aggradation period with modern erosion rates might imply that channels and hillslopes are not yet fully coupled everywhere and that present-day hillslope erosion rates may underrepresent long-term incision rates. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - paleo-erosion rates KW - climate change KW - river terraces KW - landscape evolution KW - hillslopes KW - Himalaya Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2015.06.034 SN - 0012-821X SN - 1385-013X VL - 428 SP - 255 EP - 266 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krol, Maarten A1 - Jaeger, Annekathrin A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Güntner, Andreas T1 - Integrated modelling of climate, water, soil, agricultural and socio-economic processes: A general introduction of the methodology and some exemplary results from the semi-arid north-east of Brazil JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - Many semi-arid regions are characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress. Integrated studies including climatotogy, hydrology, and socio-econornic studies are required both for analysing the dynamic natural conditions and to assess possible strategies to make semi-arid regions Less vulnerable to the present and changing climate. The model introduced here dynamically describes the retationships between climate forcing, water availability, agriculture and selected societal processes. The model has been tailored to simulate the rather complex situation in the semi-and north-eastern Brazil in a quantitative manner including the sensitivity to external forcing, such as climate change. The selected results presented show the general functioning of the integrated model, with a primary focus on climate change impacts. It becomes evident that due to Large differences in regional climate scenarios, it is still impossible to give quantitative values for the most probable development, e.g., to assign probabilities to the simulated results. However, it becomes clear that water is a very crucial factor, and that an efficient and ecologically sound water management is a key question for the further development of that semi-arid region. The simulation results show that, independent of the differences in climate change scenarios, rain-fed farming is more vulnerable to drought impacts compared to irrigated farming. However, the capacity of irrigation and other water infrastructure systems to enhance resilience in respect to climatic fluctuations is significantly constrained given a significant negative precipitation trend. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - integrated modelling KW - integrated river basin management KW - water resources management KW - semi-arid hydrology KW - climate change Y1 - 2006 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.12.021 SN - 0022-1694 VL - 328 IS - 3-4 SP - 417 EP - 431 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Katzenberger, Anja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Pongratz, Julia T1 - Intensification of very wet monsoon seasons in India under global warming JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Rainfall-intense summer monsoon seasons on the Indian subcontinent that are exceeding long-term averages cause widespread floods and landslides. Here we show that the latest generation of coupled climate models robustly project an intensification of very rainfall-intense seasons (June-September). Under the shared socioeconomic pathway SSP5-8.5, very wet monsoon seasons as observed in only 5 years in the period 1965-2015 are projected to occur 8 times more often in 2050-2100 in the multi-model average. Under SSP2-4.5, these seasons become only a factor of 6 times more frequent, showing that even modest efforts to mitigate climate change can have a strong impact on the frequency of very strong rainfall seasons. Besides, we find that the increasing risk of extreme seasonal rainfall is accompanied by a shift from days with light rainfall to days with moderate or heavy rainfall. Additionally, the number of wet days is projected to increase. KW - Indian monsoon KW - climate modeling KW - extreme seasons KW - climate change KW - CMIP6 KW - India Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098856 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 49 IS - 15 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caron, Maria Mercedes A1 - De Frenne, Pieter A1 - Brunet, J. A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, S. A. O. A1 - De Backer, L. A1 - Decocq, G. A1 - Diekmann, M. A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Kolb, A. A1 - Naaf, T. A1 - Plue, J. A1 - Selvi, Federico A1 - Strimbeck, G. R. A1 - Wulf, Monika A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Interacting effects of warming and drought on regeneration and early growth of Acer pseudoplatanus and A. platanoides JF - Plant biology N2 - Climate change is acting on several aspects of plant life cycles, including the sexual reproductive stage, which is considered amongst the most sensitive life-cycle phases. In temperate forests, it is expected that climate change will lead to a compositional change in community structure due to changes in the dominance of currently more abundant forest tree species. Increasing our understanding of the effects of climate change on currently secondary tree species recruitment is therefore important to better understand and forecast population and community dynamics in forests. Here, we analyse the interactive effects of rising temperatures and soil moisture reduction on germination, seedling survival and early growth of two important secondary European tree species, Acer pseudoplatanus and A.platanoides. Additionally, we analyse the effect of the temperature experienced by the mother tree during seed production by collecting seeds of both species along a 2200-km long latitudinal gradient. For most of the responses, A.platanoides showed higher sensitivity to the treatments applied, and especially to its joint manipulation, which for some variables resulted in additive effects while for others only partial compensation. In both species, germination and survival decreased with rising temperatures and/or soil moisture reduction while early growth decreased with declining soil moisture content. We conclude that although A.platanoides germination and survival were more affected after the applied treatments, its initial higher germination and larger seedlings might allow this species to be relatively more successful than A.pseudoplatanus in the face of climate change. KW - Acer platanoides KW - Acer pseudoplatanus KW - climate change KW - drought KW - reproduction KW - seed KW - temperature Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/plb.12177 SN - 1435-8603 SN - 1438-8677 VL - 17 IS - 1 SP - 52 EP - 62 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huggel, Christian A1 - Clague, John J. A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains? JF - Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group N2 - Climate change, manifested by an increase in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and by more intense rainstorms, is becoming more evident in many regions. An important consequence of these changes may be an increase in landslides in high mountains. More research, however, is necessary to detect changes in landslide magnitude and frequency related to contemporary climate, particularly in alpine regions hosting glaciers, permafrost, and snow. These regions not only are sensitive to changes in both temperature and precipitation, but are also areas in which landslides are ubiquitous even under a stable climate. We analyze a series of catastrophic slope failures that occurred in the mountains of Europe, the Americas, and the Caucasus since the end of the 1990s. We distinguish between rock and ice avalanches, debris flows from de-glaciated areas, and landslides that involve dynamic interactions with glacial and river processes. Analysis of these events indicates several important controls on slope stability in high mountains, including: the non-linear response of firn and ice to warming; three-dimensional warming of subsurface bedrock and its relation to site geology; de-glaciation accompanied by exposure of new sediment; and combined short-term effects of precipitation and temperature. Based on several case studies, we propose that the following mechanisms can significantly alter landslide magnitude and frequency, and thus hazard, under warming conditions: (1) positive feedbacks acting on mass movement processes that after an initial climatic stimulus may evolve independently of climate change; (2) threshold behavior and tipping points in geomorphic systems; (3) storage of sediment and ice involving important lag-time effects. KW - climate change KW - landslides KW - glaciers KW - permafrost Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2223 SN - 0197-9337 VL - 37 IS - 1 SP - 77 EP - 91 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Berry, Paul E. A1 - Dammhahn, Melanie A1 - Blaum, Niels T1 - Keeping cool on hot days BT - activity responses of African antelope to heat extremes JF - Frontiers in ecology and evolution N2 - Long-lived organisms are likely to respond to a rapidly changing climate with behavioral flexibility. Animals inhabiting the arid parts of southern Africa face a particularly rapid rise in temperature which in combination with food and water scarcity places substantial constraints on the ability of animals to tolerate heat. We investigated how three species of African antelope-springbok Antidorcas marsupialis, kudu Tragelaphus strepsiceros and eland T. oryx-differing in body size, habitat preference and movement ecology, change their activity in response to extreme heat in an arid savanna. Serving as a proxy for activity, dynamic body acceleration data recorded every five minutes were analyzed for seven to eight individuals per species for the three hottest months of the year. Activity responses to heat during the hottest time of day (the afternoons) were investigated and diel activity patterns were compared between hot and cool days. Springbok, which prefer open habitat, are highly mobile and the smallest of the species studied, showed the greatest decrease in activity with rising temperature. Furthermore, springbok showed reduced mean activity over the 24 h cycle on hot days compared to cool days. Large-bodied eland seemed less affected by afternoon heat than springbok. While eland also reduced diurnal activity on hot days compared to cool days, they compensated for this by increasing nocturnal activity, possibly because their predation risk is lower. Kudu, which are comparatively sedentary and typically occupy shady habitat, seemed least affected during the hottest time of day and showed no appreciable difference in diel activity patterns between hot and cool days. The interplay between habitat preference, body size, movement patterns, and other factors seems complex and even sub-lethal levels of heat stress have been shown to impact an animal's long-term survival and reproduction. Thus, differing heat tolerances among species could result in a shift in the composition of African herbivore communities as temperatures continue to rise, with significant implications for economically important wildlife-based land use and conservation. KW - springbok KW - kudu KW - eland KW - dynamic body acceleration KW - tri-axial accelerometers KW - behavioral flexibility KW - climate change KW - savanna ecology Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2023.1172303 SN - 2296-701X VL - 11 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Drechsler, Martin T1 - Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands BT - the role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle. KW - bilinear interpolation KW - climate change KW - dispersal success KW - land use KW - large marsh grasshopper KW - spatially explicit model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9063 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 12 IS - 7 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Böhnke, Denise A1 - Krehl, Alice A1 - Moermann, Kai A1 - Volk, Rebekka A1 - Lützkendorf, Thomas A1 - Naber, Elias A1 - Becker, Ronja A1 - Norra, Stefan T1 - Mapping urban green and its ecosystem services at microscale-a methodological approach for climate adaptation and biodiversity JF - Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) N2 - The current awareness of the high importance of urban green leads to a stronger need for tools to comprehensively represent urban green and its benefits. A common scientific approach is the development of urban ecosystem services (UES) based on remote sensing methods at the city or district level. Urban planning, however, requires fine-grained data that match local management practices. Hence, this study linked local biotope and tree mapping methods to the concept of ecosystem services. The methodology was tested in an inner-city district in SW Germany, comparing publicly accessible areas and non-accessible courtyards. The results provide area-specific [m(2)] information on the green inventory at the microscale, whereas derived stock and UES indicators form the basis for comparative analyses regarding climate adaptation and biodiversity. In the case study, there are ten times more micro-scale green spaces in private courtyards than in the public space, as well as twice as many trees. The approach transfers a scientific concept into municipal planning practice, enables the quantitative assessment of urban green at the microscale and illustrates the importance for green stock data in private areas to enhance decision support in urban development. Different aspects concerning data collection and data availability are critically discussed. KW - climate adaptation KW - urban green KW - mapping KW - ecosystem service cascade KW - model KW - surface type-function-concept KW - planning indicators KW - city district KW - level KW - urban planning practice KW - climate change Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159029 SN - 2071-1050 VL - 14 IS - 15 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - De Frenne, Pieter A1 - Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco A1 - Coomes, David Anthony A1 - Bäten, Lander A1 - Versträten, Gorik A1 - Vellend, Mark A1 - Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus A1 - Brown, Carissa D. A1 - Brunet, Jörg A1 - Cornelis, Johnny A1 - Decocq, Guillaume M. A1 - Dierschke, Hartmut A1 - Eriksson, Ove A1 - Gilliam, Frank S. A1 - Hedl, Radim A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Hermy, Martin A1 - Hommel, Patrick A1 - Jenkins, Michael A. A1 - Kelly, Daniel L. A1 - Kirby, Keith J. A1 - Mitchell, Fraser J. G. A1 - Naaf, Tobias A1 - Newman, Miles A1 - Peterken, George A1 - Petrik, Petr A1 - Schultz, Jan A1 - Sonnier, Gregory A1 - Van Calster, Hans A1 - Waller, Donald M. A1 - Walther, Gian-Reto A1 - White, Peter S. A1 - Woods, Kerry D. A1 - Wulf, Monika A1 - Graae, Bente Jessen A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America N2 - Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass-e.g., for bioenergy-may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity. KW - climate change KW - forest management KW - understory KW - climatic debt KW - range shifts Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1311190110 SN - 0027-8424 VL - 110 IS - 46 SP - 18561 EP - 18565 PB - National Acad. of Sciences CY - Washington ER -