TY - JOUR A1 - Chandra, Johan A1 - Krügel, André A1 - Engbert, Ralf T1 - Experimental test of Bayesian saccade targeting under reversed reading direction JF - Attention, Perception, & Psychophysics N2 - During reading, rapid eye movements (saccades) shift the reader's line of sight from one word to another for high-acuity visual information processing. While experimental data and theoretical models show that readers aim at word centers, the eye-movement (oculomotor) accuracy is low compared to other tasks. As a consequence, distributions of saccadic landing positions indicate large (i) random errors and (ii) systematic over- and undershoot of word centers, which additionally depend on saccade lengths (McConkie et al.Visual Research, 28(10), 1107-1118,1988). Here we show that both error components can be simultaneously reduced by reading texts from right to left in German language (N= 32). We used our experimental data to test a Bayesian model of saccade planning. First, experimental data are consistent with the model. Second, the model makes specific predictions of the effects of the precision of prior and (sensory) likelihood. Our results suggest that it is a more precise sensory likelihood that can explain the reduction of both random and systematic error components. KW - eye movements and reading KW - Bayesian modeling KW - eye-movement control KW - model KW - fixation KW - attention KW - words KW - swift Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3758/s13414-019-01814-4 SN - 1943-393X SN - 1943-3921 VL - 82 SP - 1230 EP - 1240 PB - Springer CY - New York, NY ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Milles, Alexander Benedikt A1 - Dammhahn, Melanie A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Schlägel, Ulrike A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Fluctuations in density-dependent selection drive the evolution of a pace-of-life syndrome within and between populations JF - The American naturalist : a bi-monthly journal devoted to the advancement and correlation of the biological sciences N2 - The pace-of-life syndrome (POLS) hypothesis posits that suites of traits are correlated along a slow-fast continuum owing to life history trade-offs. Despite widespread adoption, environmental conditions driving the emergence of POLS remain unclear. A recently proposed conceptual framework of POLS suggests that a slow-fast continuum should align to fluctuations in density-dependent selection. We tested three key predictions made by this framework with an ecoevolutionary agent-based population model. Selection acted on responsiveness (behavioral trait) to interpatch resource differences and the reproductive investment threshold (life history trait). Across environments with density fluctuations of different magnitudes, we observed the emergence of a common axis of trait covariation between and within populations (i.e., the evolution of a POLS). Slow-type (fast-type) populations with high (low) responsiveness and low (high) reproductive investment threshold were selected at high (low) population densities and less (more) intense and frequent density fluctuations. In support of the predictions, fast-type populations contained a higher degree of variation in traits and were associated with higher intrinsic reproductive rate (r(0)) and higher sensitivity to intraspecific competition (gamma), pointing to a universal trade-off. While our findings support that POLS aligns with density-dependent selection, we discuss possible mechanisms that may lead to alternative evolutionary pathways. KW - pace-of-life syndrome KW - density dependence KW - life history KW - trait KW - variation KW - model KW - personality Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1086/718473 SN - 0003-0147 SN - 1537-5323 VL - 199 IS - 4 SP - E124 EP - E139 PB - Univ. of Chicago Press CY - Chicago ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jackisch, Conrad A1 - Angermann, Lisa A1 - Allroggen, Niklas A1 - Sprenger, Matthias A1 - Blume, Theresa A1 - Tronicke, Jens A1 - Zehe, Erwin T1 - Form and function in hillslope hydrology BT - in situ imaging and characterization of flow-relevant structures T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The study deals with the identification and characterization of rapid subsurface flow structures through pedo- and geo-physical measurements and irrigation experiments at the point, plot and hillslope scale. Our investigation of flow-relevant structures and hydrological responses refers to the general interplay of form and function, respectively. To obtain a holistic picture of the subsurface, a large set of different laboratory, exploratory and experimental methods was used at the different scales. For exploration these methods included drilled soil core profiles, in situ measurements of infiltration capacity and saturated hydraulic conductivity, and laboratory analyses of soil water retention and saturated hydraulic conductivity. The irrigation experiments at the plot scale were monitored through a combination of dye tracer, salt tracer, soil moisture dynamics, and 3-D time-lapse ground penetrating radar (GPR) methods. At the hillslope scale the subsurface was explored by a 3-D GPR survey. A natural storm event and an irrigation experiment were monitored by a dense network of soil moisture observations and a cascade of 2-D time-lapse GPR "trenches". We show that the shift between activated and non-activated state of the flow paths is needed to distinguish structures from overall heterogeneity. Pedo-physical analyses of point-scale samples are the basis for sub-scale structure inference. At the plot and hillslope scale 3-D and 2-D time-lapse GPR applications are successfully employed as non-invasive means to image subsurface response patterns and to identify flow-relevant paths. Tracer recovery and soil water responses from irrigation experiments deliver a consistent estimate of response velocities. The combined observation of form and function under active conditions provides the means to localize and characterize the structures (this study) and the hydrological processes (companion study Angermann et al., 2017, this issue). T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 665 KW - Ground Penetrating Radar KW - preferential flow KW - solute transport KW - Catchment Hydrology KW - multiple scales KW - soil moisture KW - water content KW - tracer KW - field KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419188 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 665 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Botero, David A1 - Monk, Jonathan A1 - Rodriguez Cubillos, Maria Juliana A1 - Rodriguez Cubillos, Andres Eduardo A1 - Restrepo, Mariana A1 - Bernal-Galeano, Vivian A1 - Reyes, Alejandro A1 - Gonzalez Barrios, Andres A1 - Palsson, Bernhard O. A1 - Restrepo, Silvia A1 - Bernal, Adriana T1 - Genome-scale metabolic model of Xanthomonas phaseoli pv. manihotis BT - an approach to elucidate pathogenicity at the metabolic level JF - Frontiers in genetics N2 - Xanthomonas phaseoli pv. manihotis (Xpm) is the causal agent of cassava bacterial blight, the most important bacterial disease in this crop. There is a paucity of knowledge about the metabolism of Xanthomonas and its relevance in the pathogenic process, with the exception of the elucidation of the xanthan biosynthesis route. Here we report the reconstruction of the genome-scale model of Xpm metabolism and the insights it provides into plant-pathogen interactions. The model, iXpm1556, displayed 1,556 reactions, 1,527 compounds, and 890 genes. Metabolic maps of central amino acid and carbohydrate metabolism, as well as xanthan biosynthesis of Xpm, were reconstructed using Escher (https://escher.github.io/) to guide the curation process and for further analyses. The model was constrained using the RNA-seq data of a mutant of Xpm for quorum sensing (QS), and these data were used to construct context-specific models (CSMs) of the metabolism of the two strains (wild type and QS mutant). The CSMs and flux balance analysis were used to get insights into pathogenicity, xanthan biosynthesis, and QS mechanisms. Between the CSMs, 653 reactions were shared; unique reactions belong to purine, pyrimidine, and amino acid metabolism. Alternative objective functions were used to demonstrate a trade-off between xanthan biosynthesis and growth and the re-allocation of resources in the process of biosynthesis. Important features altered by QS included carbohydrate metabolism, NAD(P)(+) balance, and fatty acid elongation. In this work, we modeled the xanthan biosynthesis and the QS process and their impact on the metabolism of the bacterium. This model will be useful for researchers studying host-pathogen interactions and will provide insights into the mechanisms of infection used by this and other Xanthomonas species. KW - Xanthomonas KW - Xpm KW - cassava bacterial blight KW - genome-scale metabolic KW - model KW - quorum sensing Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fgene.2020.00837 SN - 1664-8021 VL - 11 PB - Frontiers Media CY - Lausanne ER - TY - THES A1 - Krummenauer, Linda T1 - Global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under different climate futures T1 - Globale Hitzeanpassung urbaner Bevölkerungen und deren Entwicklung unter verschiedenen klimatischen Zukünften N2 - Heat and increasing ambient temperatures under climate change represent a serious threat to human health in cities. Heat exposure has been studied extensively at a global scale. Studies comparing a defined temperature threshold with the future daytime temperature during a certain period of time, had concluded an increase in threat to human health. Such findings however do not explicitly account for possible changes in future human heat adaptation and might even overestimate heat exposure. Thus, heat adaptation and its development is still unclear. Human heat adaptation refers to the local temperature to which populations are adjusted to. It can be inferred from the lowest point of the U- or V-shaped heat-mortality relationship (HMR), the Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). While epidemiological studies inform on the MMT at the city scale for case studies, a general model applicable at the global scale to infer on temporal change in MMTs had not yet been realised. The conventional approach depends on data availability, their robustness, and on the access to daily mortality records at the city scale. Thorough analysis however must account for future changes in the MMT as heat adaptation happens partially passively. Human heat adaptation consists of two aspects: (1) the intensity of the heat hazard that is still tolerated by human populations, meaning the heat burden they can bear and (2) the wealth-induced technological, social and behavioural measures that can be employed to avoid heat exposure. The objective of this thesis is to investigate and quantify human heat adaptation among urban populations at a global scale under the current climate and to project future adaptation under climate change until the end of the century. To date, this has not yet been accomplished. The evaluation of global heat adaptation among urban populations and its evolution under climate change comprises three levels of analysis. First, using the example of Germany, the MMT is calculated at the city level by applying the conventional method. Second, this thesis compiles a data pool of 400 urban MMTs to develop and train a new model capable of estimating MMTs on the basis of physical and socio-economic city characteristics using multivariate non-linear multivariate regression. The MMT is successfully described as a function of the current climate, the topography and the socio-economic standard, independently of daily mortality data for cities around the world. The city-specific MMT estimates represents a measure of human heat adaptation among the urban population. In a final third analysis, the model to derive human heat adaptation was adjusted to be driven by projected climate and socio-economic variables for the future. This allowed for estimation of the MMT and its change for 3 820 cities worldwide for different combinations of climate trajectories and socio-economic pathways until 2100. The knowledge on the evolution of heat adaptation in the future is a novelty as mostly heat exposure and its future development had been researched. In this work, changes in heat adaptation and exposure were analysed jointly. A wide range of possible health-related outcomes up to 2100 was the result, of which two scenarios with the highest socio-economic developments but opposing strong warming levels were highlighted for comparison. Strong economic growth based upon fossil fuel exploitation is associated with a high gain in heat adaptation, but may not be able to compensate for the associated negative health effects due to increased heat exposure in 30% to 40% of the cities investigated caused by severe climate change. A slightly less strong, but sustainable growth brings moderate gains in heat adaptation but a lower heat exposure and exposure reductions in 80% to 84% of the cities in terms of frequency (number of days exceeding the MMT) and intensity (magnitude of the MMT exceedance) due to a milder global warming. Choosing a 2 ° C compatible development by 2100 would therefore lower the risk of heat-related mortality at the end of the century. In summary, this thesis makes diverse and multidisciplinary contributions to a deeper understanding of human adaptation to heat under the current and the future climate. It is one of the first studies to carry out a systematic and statistical analysis of urban characteristics which are useful as MMT drivers to establish a generalised model of human heat adaptation, applicable at the global level. A broad range of possible heat-related health options for various future scenarios was shown for the first time. This work is of relevance for the assessment of heat-health impacts in regions where mortality data are not accessible or missing. The results are useful for health care planning at the meso- and macro-level and to urban- and climate change adaptation planning. Lastly, beyond having met the posed objective, this thesis advances research towards a global future impact assessment of heat on human health by providing an alternative method of MMT estimation, that is spatially and temporally flexible in its application. N2 - Hitze und steigende Umgebungstemperaturen im Zuge des Klimawandels stellen eine ernsthafte Bedrohung für die menschliche Gesundheit in Städten dar. Die Hitzeexposition wurde umfassend auf globaler Ebene untersucht. Studien, die eine definierte Temperaturschwelle mit der zukünftigen Tagestemperatur während eines bestimmten Zeitraums verglichen, hatten eine Zunahme der Gefährdung der menschlichen Gesundheit ergeben. Solche Ergebnisse berücksichtigen jedoch nicht explizit mögliche Veränderungen der zukünftigen menschlichen Hitzeadaption und könnten daher sogar die Hitzeexposition überschätzen. Somit ist die menschliche Adaption an Hitze und ihre zukünftige Entwicklung noch unklar. Die menschliche Hitzeadaption bezieht sich auf die lokale Temperatur, an die sich die Bevölkerung angepasst hat. Sie lässt sich aus dem Tiefpunkt der U- oder V-förmigen Relation zwischen Hitze und Mortalität (HMR), der Mortalitätsminimaltemperatur (MMT), ableiten. Während epidemiologische Fallstudien über die MMT auf Stadtebene informieren, wurde ein auf globaler Ebene anwendbares allgemeines Modell, um auf die zeitliche Veränderung der MMTs zu schließen, bisher noch nicht realisiert. Der konventionelle Ansatz ist abhängig von der Datenverfügbarkeit, ihrer Robustheit und dem Zugang zu täglichen Mortalitätsdaten auf Stadtebene. Eine gründliche Analyse muss jedoch zukünftige Veränderungen in der MMT berücksichtigen, da die menschliche Hitzeanpassung teils passiv erfolgt. Die menschliche Hitzeanpassung besteht aus zwei Aspekten: (1) aus der Intensität der Hitze, die von der menschlichen Bevölkerung noch toleriert wird, also die Hitzebelastung, die sie ertragen kann, und (2) aus vermögensbedingten technologischen, sozialen und verhaltensbezogenen Maßnahmen, die zur Vermeidung von Hitzeexposition eingesetzt werden können. Das Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es, die menschliche Hitzeanpassung der städtischen Bevölkerung unter dem aktuellen Klima auf globaler Ebene zu untersuchen und zu quantifizieren und die zukünftige Anpassung an den Klimawandel bis zum Ende des Jahrhunderts zu projizieren. Dies wurde bis heute noch nicht erreicht. Die Bewertung der globalen Hitzeanpassung städtischer Bevölkerungen und ihrer Entwicklung unter dem Klimawandel umfasst drei Analyseebenen. Erstens wird am Beispiel Deutschlands die MMT auf Stadtebene nach der konventionellen Methode berechnet. Zweitens trägt diese Arbeit einen Datenpool von 400 städtischen MMTs zusammen, um auf dessen Basis ein neues Modell zu entwickeln und zu trainieren, welches in der Lage ist, MMTs auf der Grundlage von physischen und sozioökonomischen Stadtmerkmalen mittels multivariater nichtlinearer multivariater Regression zu schätzen. Es wird gezeigt, dass die MMT als Funktion des aktuellen Klimas, der Topographie und des sozioökonomischen Standards beschrieben werden kann, unabhängig von täglichen Sterblichkeitsdaten für Städte auf der ganzen Welt. Die stadtspezifischen MMT-Schätzungen stellen ein Maß für die menschliche Hitzeanpassung der städtischen Bevölkerung dar. In einer letzten dritten Analyse wurde das Modell zur Schätzung der menschlichen Hitzeadaption angepasst, um von für die Zukunft projizierten Klima- und sozioökonomischen Variablen angetrieben zu werden. Dies ermöglichte eine Schätzung des MMT und seiner Veränderung für 3 820 Städte weltweit für verschiedene Kombinationen aus Klimatrajektorien und sozioökonomischen Entwicklungspfaden bis 2100. Das Wissen über die Entwicklung der menschlichen Hitzeanpassung in der Zukunft ist ein Novum, da bisher hauptsächlich die Hitzeexposition und ihre zukünftige Entwicklung erforscht wurden. In dieser Arbeit wurden die Veränderungen der menschlichen Hitzeadaptation und der Hitzeexposition gemeinsam analysiert. Das Ergebnis ist ein breites Spektrum möglicher gesundheitsbezogener Zukünfte bis 2100, von denen zum Vergleich zwei Szenarienkombinationen mit den höchsten sozioökonomischen Entwicklungen, aber gegensätzlichen starken Erwärmungsniveaus hervorgehoben wurden. Ein starkes Wirtschaftswachstum auf der Grundlage der Nutzung fossiler Brennstoffe fördert zwar einen hohen Zugewinn an Hitzeanpassung, kann jedoch die damit verbundenen negativen gesundheitlichen Auswirkungen aufgrund der erhöhten Exposition in rund 30% bis 40% der untersuchten Städte aufgrund eines starken Klimawandels möglicherweise nicht ausgleichen. Ein etwas weniger starkes, dafür aber nachhaltiges Wachstum bringt aufgrund einer milderen globalen Erwärmung eine moderate Hitzeanpassung und eine geringere Hitzeexposition und sogar eine Abnahme der Exposition in 80% bis 84% der Städte in Bezug auf Häufigkeit (Anzahl der Tage über der MMT) und Intensität (Magnitude der MMT-Überschreitung). Die Wahl einer 2 ° C-kompatiblen Entwicklung bis 2100 würde daher das Risiko einer hitzebedingten Sterblichkeit am Ende des Jahrhunderts senken. Zusammenfassend liefert diese Dissertation vielfältige und multidisziplinäre Beiträge zu einem tieferen Verständnis der menschlichen Hitzeanpassung unter dem gegenwärtigen und zukünftigen Klima. Es ist eine der ersten Studien, die eine systematische und statistische Analyse städtischer Merkmale durchführt, die sich als MMT-Treiber verwenden lassen, um ein verallgemeinertes Modell der menschlichen Hitzeanpassung zu erarbeiten, das auf globaler Ebene anwendbar ist. Erstmals wurde ein breites Spektrum möglicher hitzebedingter Gesundheitsoptionen für verschiedene Zukunftsszenarien aufgezeigt. Diese Arbeit ist von Bedeutung für die Bewertung von hitzebezogener Gesundheitsauswirkungen in Regionen, in denen Mortalitätsdaten nicht zugänglich sind oder fehlen. Die Ergebnisse sind nützlich für die Gesundheitsplanung auf Meso- und Makroebene sowie für die Stadtplanung und die Planung der Anpassung an den Klimawandel. Über das Erreichen des gestellten Ziels hinaus treibt diese Dissertation die Forschung in Richtung einer globalen zukünftigen Folgenabschätzung von Hitze auf die menschliche Gesundheit voran, indem eine alternative Methode der MMT-Schätzung bereitgestellt wird, die in ihrer Anwendung räumlich und zeitlich flexibel ist. KW - heat KW - adaptation KW - global KW - populations KW - climate change KW - temperature KW - mortality KW - minimum mortality temperature KW - projection KW - future KW - health KW - model KW - socio-economy KW - wealth KW - acclimatisation KW - Akklimatisierung KW - Anpassung KW - Hitzeanpassung KW - Klimawandel KW - Zukunft KW - global KW - Gesundheit KW - Hitze KW - Mortalitäts-Minimal-Temperatur KW - Modell KW - Mortalität KW - Bevölkerung KW - Projektion KW - Sozioökonomie KW - Temperatur KW - Wohlstand KW - exposure KW - hazard KW - cities KW - Exposition KW - Naturgefahr KW - Städte Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-559294 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Seebens, Hanno A1 - Essl, Franz A1 - Dawson, Wayne A1 - Fuentes, Nicol A1 - Moser, Dietmar A1 - Pergl, Jan A1 - Pysek, Petr A1 - van Kleunen, Mark A1 - Weber, Ewald A1 - Winter, Marten A1 - Blasius, Bernd T1 - Global trade will accelerate plant invasions in emerging economies under climate change JF - Global change biology N2 - Trade plays a key role in the spread of alien species and has arguably contributed to the recent enormous acceleration of biological invasions, thus homogenizing biotas worldwide. Combining data on 60-year trends of bilateral trade, as well as on biodiversity and climate, we modeled the global spread of plant species among 147 countries. The model results were compared with a recently compiled unique global data set on numbers of naturalized alien vascular plant species representing the most comprehensive collection of naturalized plant distributions currently available. The model identifies major source regions, introduction routes, and hot spots of plant invasions that agree well with observed naturalized plant numbers. In contrast to common knowledge, we show that the 'imperialist dogma,' stating that Europe has been a net exporter of naturalized plants since colonial times, does not hold for the past 60 years, when more naturalized plants were being imported to than exported from Europe. Our results highlight that the current distribution of naturalized plants is best predicted by socioeconomic activities 20 years ago. We took advantage of the observed time lag and used trade developments until recent times to predict naturalized plant trajectories for the next two decades. This shows that particularly strong increases in naturalized plant numbers are expected in the next 20 years for emerging economies in megadiverse regions. The interaction with predicted future climate change will increase invasions in northern temperate countries and reduce them in tropical and (sub) tropical regions, yet not by enough to cancel out the trade-related increase. KW - alien vascular plants KW - bioinvasion KW - climate warming KW - global spread KW - imperialist dogma KW - model KW - network of plant invasion Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13021 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 21 IS - 11 SP - 4128 EP - 4140 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fürstenberg, Nils A1 - Alfes, Kerstin A1 - Kearney, Eric T1 - How and when paradoxical leadership benefits work engagement BT - the role of goal clarity and work autonomy JF - Journal of occupational and organizational psychology / British Psychological Society N2 - Paradoxical leadership behaviour (PLB) represents an emerging leadership construct that can help leaders deal with conflicting demands. In this paper, we report three studies that add to this nascent literature theoretically, methodologically, and empirically. In Study 1, we validate an effective short-form measure of global PLB using three different samples. In Studies 2 and 3, we draw on the job demands-resources model to propose that paradoxical leaders promote followers' work engagement by simultaneously fostering follower goal clarity and work autonomy. The results of survey data from Studies 2 and 3 largely confirm our model. Specifically, our findings show that PLB is positively associated with follower goal clarity and work autonomy, and that PLB exerts an indirect effect on work engagement via these variables. Moreover, our results support a hypothesized interaction effect of goal clarity and work autonomy to predict followers' work engagement, as well as a conditional indirect effect of PLB on work engagement via the interactive effect. We discuss the practical implications for leaders and organizations. Practitioner points To effectively engage followers in their work, leaders should create work environments in which followers know exactly what to do (i.e., have high goal clarity), but at the same time can determine on their own how to do their work (i.e., have high work autonomy) To foster both goal clarity and work autonomy, leaders should combine communal (e.g., other-centred, flexibility-providing) and agentic aspects of leadership (e.g., maintaining decision control and enforcing performance standards). HR departments should design leadership trainings that help leaders to combine seemingly opposing, yet ultimately synergistic behaviours. KW - paradoxical leadership behaviour KW - paradox theory KW - job demands KW - resources KW - model KW - goal clarity KW - work autonomy KW - work engagement Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/joop.12344 SN - 0963-1798 SN - 2044-8325 VL - 94 IS - 3 SP - 672 EP - 705 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Metin, Ayse Duha A1 - Dung, Nguyen Viet A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1067 KW - global sensitivity analysis KW - climate change KW - river floods KW - frequency KW - Europe KW - model KW - vulnerability KW - adaptation KW - strategies KW - catchment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1067 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vogt-Vincent, Noam A1 - Lippold, Jörg A1 - Kaboth-Bahr, Stefanie A1 - Blaser, Patrick T1 - Ice-rafted debris as a source of non-conservative behaviour for the epsilon Nd palaeotracer BT - insights from a simple model JF - Geo-marine letters : an international journal of marine geology N2 - Neodymium isotopic composition (epsilon Nd) has enjoyed widespread use as a palaeotracer, principally because it behaves quasi-conservatively in the modern ocean. However, recent bottom water epsilon Nd reconstructions from the eastern North Atlantic are difficult to interpret under assumptions of conservative behaviour. The observation that this apparent departure from conservative behaviour increases with enhanced ice-rafted debris (IRD) fluxes has resulted in the suggestion that IRD leads to the overprinting of bottom water epsilon Nd through reversible scavenging. In this study, a simple water column model successfully reproduces epsilon Nd reconstructions from the eastern North Atlantic at the Last Glacial Maximum and Heinrich Stadial 1, and demonstrates that the changes in scavenging intensity required for good model-data fit is in good agreement with changes in the observed IRD flux. Although uncertainties in model parameters preclude a more definitive conclusion, the results indicate that the suggestion of IRD as a source of non-conservative behaviour in the epsilon Nd tracer is reasonable and that further research into the fundamental chemistry underlying the marine neodymium cycle is necessary to increase confidence in assumptions of conservative epsilon Nd behaviour in the past. KW - Neodymium isotopes KW - epsilon Nd KW - ice-rafted debris KW - IRD KW - last glacial KW - maximum KW - LGM KW - Heinrich event KW - Palaeoceanography KW - Paleoceanography KW - model KW - reversible scavenging KW - conservative KW - ocean circulation KW - atlantic KW - meridional overturning circulation KW - geochemical cycling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00367-020-00643-x SN - 0276-0460 SN - 1432-1157 VL - 40 IS - 3 SP - 325 EP - 340 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nowicki, Sophie A1 - Bindschadler, Robert A. A1 - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako A1 - Aschwanden, Andy A1 - Bueler, Ed A1 - Choi, Hyeungu A1 - Fastook, Jim A1 - Granzow, Glen A1 - Greve, Ralf A1 - Gutowski, Gail A1 - Herzfeld, Ute A1 - Jackson, Charles A1 - Johnson, Jesse A1 - Khroulev, Constantine A1 - Larour, Eric A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Lipscomb, William H. A1 - Martin, Maria A. A1 - Morlighem, Mathieu A1 - Parizek, Byron R. A1 - Pollard, David A1 - Price, Stephen F. A1 - Ren, Diandong A1 - Rignot, Eric A1 - Saito, Fuyuki A1 - Sato, Tatsuru A1 - Seddik, Hakime A1 - Seroussi, Helene A1 - Takahashi, Kunio A1 - Walker, Ryan A1 - Wang, Wei Li T1 - Insights into spatial sensitivities of ice mass response to environmental change from the SeaRISE ice sheet modeling project II Greenland JF - Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface N2 - The Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) effort explores the sensitivity of the current generation of ice sheet models to external forcing to gain insight into the potential future contribution to sea level from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. All participating models simulated the ice sheet response to three types of external forcings: a change in oceanic condition, a warmer atmospheric environment, and enhanced basal lubrication. Here an analysis of the spatial response of the Greenland ice sheet is presented, and the impact of model physics and spin-up on the projections is explored. Although the modeled responses are not always homogeneous, consistent spatial trends emerge from the ensemble analysis, indicating distinct vulnerabilities of the Greenland ice sheet. There are clear response patterns associated with each forcing, and a similar mass loss at the full ice sheet scale will result in different mass losses at the regional scale, as well as distinct thickness changes over the ice sheet. All forcings lead to an increased mass loss for the coming centuries, with increased basal lubrication and warmer ocean conditions affecting mainly outlet glaciers, while the impacts of atmospheric forcings affect the whole ice sheet. KW - Greenland KW - ice-sheet KW - sea-level KW - model KW - ensemble Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrf.20076 SN - 2169-9003 VL - 118 IS - 2 SP - 1025 EP - 1044 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - GEN A1 - Urbach, Tina A1 - Fay, Doris T1 - Leader member exchange in leaders' support for voice BT - good relationships matter in situations of power threat T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - While previous research underscores the role of leaders in stimulating employee voice behaviour, comparatively little is known about what affects leaders' support for such constructive but potentially threatening employee behaviours. We introduce leader member exchange quality (LMX) as a central predictor of leaders' support for employees' ideas for constructive change. Apart from a general benefit of high LMX for leaders' idea support, we propose that high LMX is particularly critical to leaders' idea support if the idea voiced by an employee constitutes a power threat to the leader. We investigate leaders' attribution of prosocial and egoistic employee intentions as mediators of these effects. Hypotheses were tested in a quasi-experimental vignette study (N = 160), in which leaders evaluated a simulated employee idea, and a field study (N = 133), in which leaders evaluated an idea that had been voiced to them at work. Results show an indirect effect of LMX on leaders' idea support via attributed prosocial intentions but not via attributed egoistic intentions, and a buffering effect of high LMX on the negative effect of power threat on leaders' idea support. Results differed across studies with regard to the main effect of LMX on idea support. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Humanwissenschaftliche Reihe - 842 KW - proactive personality KW - work KW - consequences KW - behavior KW - performance KW - model KW - trust KW - metaanalysis KW - antecedents KW - supervisors Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-510904 SN - 1866-8364 VL - 70 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Urbach, Tina A1 - Fay, Doris T1 - Leader member exchange in leaders’ support for voice BT - good relationships matter in situations of power threat JF - Applied psychology : an international review JF - Psychologie appliquée N2 - While previous research underscores the role of leaders in stimulating employee voice behaviour, comparatively little is known about what affects leaders' support for such constructive but potentially threatening employee behaviours. We introduce leader member exchange quality (LMX) as a central predictor of leaders' support for employees' ideas for constructive change. Apart from a general benefit of high LMX for leaders' idea support, we propose that high LMX is particularly critical to leaders' idea support if the idea voiced by an employee constitutes a power threat to the leader. We investigate leaders' attribution of prosocial and egoistic employee intentions as mediators of these effects. Hypotheses were tested in a quasi-experimental vignette study (N = 160), in which leaders evaluated a simulated employee idea, and a field study (N = 133), in which leaders evaluated an idea that had been voiced to them at work. Results show an indirect effect of LMX on leaders' idea support via attributed prosocial intentions but not via attributed egoistic intentions, and a buffering effect of high LMX on the negative effect of power threat on leaders' idea support. Results differed across studies with regard to the main effect of LMX on idea support. KW - proactive personality KW - antecedents KW - behavior KW - consequences KW - metaanalysis KW - model KW - performance KW - supervisors KW - trust KW - work Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/apps.12245 SN - 0269-994X SN - 1464-0597 VL - 70 IS - 2 SP - 674 EP - 708 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ehrig, Hartmut A1 - Golas, Ulrike A1 - Habel, Annegret A1 - Lambers, Leen A1 - Orejas, Fernando T1 - M-adhesive transformation systems with nested application conditions BT - Part 1: parallelism, concurrency and amalgamation T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Digital Engineering Reihe N2 - Nested application conditions generalise the well-known negative application conditions and are important for several application domains. In this paper, we present Local Church-Rosser, Parallelism, Concurrency and Amalgamation Theorems for rules with nested application conditions in the framework of M-adhesive categories, where M-adhesive categories are slightly more general than weak adhesive high-level replacement categories. Most of the proofs are based on the corresponding statements for rules without application conditions and two shift lemmas stating that nested application conditions can be shifted over morphisms and rules. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Reihe der Digital Engineering Fakultät - 1 KW - level-replacement systems KW - graph-transformations KW - distributed systems KW - synchronization KW - confluence KW - categories KW - programs KW - grammars KW - model Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-415651 IS - 001 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Böhnke, Denise A1 - Krehl, Alice A1 - Moermann, Kai A1 - Volk, Rebekka A1 - Lützkendorf, Thomas A1 - Naber, Elias A1 - Becker, Ronja A1 - Norra, Stefan T1 - Mapping urban green and its ecosystem services at microscale-a methodological approach for climate adaptation and biodiversity JF - Sustainability / Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI) N2 - The current awareness of the high importance of urban green leads to a stronger need for tools to comprehensively represent urban green and its benefits. A common scientific approach is the development of urban ecosystem services (UES) based on remote sensing methods at the city or district level. Urban planning, however, requires fine-grained data that match local management practices. Hence, this study linked local biotope and tree mapping methods to the concept of ecosystem services. The methodology was tested in an inner-city district in SW Germany, comparing publicly accessible areas and non-accessible courtyards. The results provide area-specific [m(2)] information on the green inventory at the microscale, whereas derived stock and UES indicators form the basis for comparative analyses regarding climate adaptation and biodiversity. In the case study, there are ten times more micro-scale green spaces in private courtyards than in the public space, as well as twice as many trees. The approach transfers a scientific concept into municipal planning practice, enables the quantitative assessment of urban green at the microscale and illustrates the importance for green stock data in private areas to enhance decision support in urban development. Different aspects concerning data collection and data availability are critically discussed. KW - climate adaptation KW - urban green KW - mapping KW - ecosystem service cascade KW - model KW - surface type-function-concept KW - planning indicators KW - city district KW - level KW - urban planning practice KW - climate change Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/su14159029 SN - 2071-1050 VL - 14 IS - 15 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - THES A1 - Fischer, Jost Leonhardt T1 - Nichtlineare Kopplungsmechanismen akustischer Oszillatoren am Beispiel der Synchronisation von Orgelpfeifen T1 - Nonlinear coupling mechanisms of acoustical oscillators using the example of synchronization of organ pipes N2 - In dieser Arbeit werden nichtlineare Kopplungsmechanismen von akustischen Oszillatoren untersucht, die zu Synchronisation führen können. Aufbauend auf die Fragestellungen vorangegangener Arbeiten werden mit Hilfe theoretischer und experimenteller Studien sowie mit Hilfe numerischer Simulationen die Elemente der Tonentstehung in der Orgelpfeife und die Mechanismen der gegenseitigen Wechselwirkung von Orgelpfeifen identifiziert. Daraus wird erstmalig ein vollständig auf den aeroakustischen und fluiddynamischen Grundprinzipien basierendes nichtlinear gekoppeltes Modell selbst-erregter Oszillatoren für die Beschreibung des Verhaltens zweier wechselwirkender Orgelpfeifen entwickelt. Die durchgeführten Modellrechnungen werden mit den experimentellen Befunden verglichen. Es zeigt sich, dass die Tonentstehung und die Kopplungsmechanismen von Orgelpfeifen durch das entwickelte Oszillatormodell in weiten Teilen richtig beschrieben werden. Insbesondere kann damit die Ursache für den nichtlinearen Zusammenhang von Kopplungsstärke und Synchronisation des gekoppelten Zwei-Pfeifen Systems, welcher sich in einem nichtlinearen Verlauf der Arnoldzunge darstellt, geklärt werden. Mit den gewonnenen Erkenntnissen wird der Einfluss des Raumes auf die Tonentstehung bei Orgelpfeifen betrachtet. Dafür werden numerische Simulationen der Wechselwirkung einer Orgelpfeife mit verschiedenen Raumgeometrien, wie z. B. ebene, konvexe, konkave, und gezahnte Geometrien, exemplarisch untersucht. Auch der Einfluss von Schwellkästen auf die Tonentstehung und die Klangbildung der Orgelpfeife wird studiert. In weiteren, neuartigen Synchronisationsexperimenten mit identisch gestimmten Orgelpfeifen, sowie mit Mixturen wird die Synchronisation für verschiedene, horizontale und vertikale Pfeifenabstände in der Ebene der Schallabstrahlung, untersucht. Die dabei erstmalig beobachteten räumlich isotropen Unstetigkeiten im Schwingungsverhalten der gekoppelten Pfeifensysteme, deuten auf abstandsabhängige Wechsel zwischen gegen- und gleichphasigen Sychronisationsregimen hin. Abschließend wird die Möglichkeit dokumentiert, das Phänomen der Synchronisation zweier Orgelpfeifen durch numerische Simulationen, also der Behandlung der kompressiblen Navier-Stokes Gleichungen mit entsprechenden Rand- und Anfangsbedingungen, realitätsnah abzubilden. Auch dies stellt ein Novum dar. N2 - In this work non-linear coupling mechanisms in acoustic oscillator systems are examined which can lead to synchronization phenomena. This mechanisms are investigated in particular on organ pipes. Building up on the questions of preceding works the elements of the sound generation are identified using detailed experimental and theoretical studies, as well as numerical simulations. Furthermore the organ pipes interaction mechanisms of the mutual coupling are developed. This leads to a non-linear coupled oscillator model which is developed on the aeroacoustical and fluiddynamical first principles. The carried out model calculations are compared to the experimental results from preceding works. It appears that the sound generation and the coupling mechanisms are properly described by the developed nonlinear coupled model of self-sustained oscillators. In particular the cause can be cleared with it for the non-linear edges of the Arnold tongue of the coupled two-pipe system. With the new knowledge the influence of various space geometries on the sound generation of organ pipes is investigated. With numerical simulations the interaction of an organ pipe and different space geometries, like plane, convex, concave, and ridged geometry is studied. Also the influence of so called swell boxes on the sound generation and the sound pattern of the organ pipe is studied. In further new synchronization experiments with precisely equally tuned pairs of organ pipes, as well as with mixtures the synchronization is examined for various grids of horizontal and vertical pipe distances in the 2D-plane of sound radiation. The spatial discontinuities observed in the oscillation behaviour of the coupled pipe systems, point to changes between anti-phase and in-phase regimes of sychronization depending on pipes distances. Finally the possibility is documented to describe the phenomenon of the synchronization of two organ pipes realisticaly by solving the compressible Navier-Stokes equations numerically. KW - Synchronisation KW - Orgelpfeifen KW - Simulation KW - Experiment KW - Modell KW - synchronization KW - organ pipes KW - simulation KW - experiment KW - model Y1 - 2014 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-71975 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Omelʹchenko, Oleh E. T1 - Nonstationary coherence-incoherence patterns in nonlocally coupled heterogeneous phase oscillators JF - Chaos : an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science N2 - We consider a large ring of nonlocally coupled phase oscillators and show that apart from stationary chimera states, this system also supports nonstationary coherence-incoherence patterns (CIPs). For identical oscillators, these CIPs behave as breathing chimera states and are found in a relatively small parameter region only. It turns out that the stability region of these states enlarges dramatically if a certain amount of spatially uniform heterogeneity (e.g., Lorentzian distribution of natural frequencies) is introduced in the system. In this case, nonstationary CIPs can be studied as stable quasiperiodic solutions of a corresponding mean-field equation, formally describing the infinite system limit. Carrying out direct numerical simulations of the mean-field equation, we find different types of nonstationary CIPs with pulsing and/or alternating chimera-like behavior. Moreover, we reveal a complex bifurcation scenario underlying the transformation of these CIPs into each other. These theoretical predictions are confirmed by numerical simulations of the original coupled oscillator system. KW - chimera states KW - synchronization KW - networks KW - Kuramoto KW - populations KW - dynamics KW - bumps KW - model Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5145259 SN - 1054-1500 SN - 1089-7682 VL - 30 IS - 4 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Melville ER - TY - GEN A1 - Wickert, Andrew D. T1 - Open-source modular solutions for flexural isostasy BT - gFlex v1.0 T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Isostasy is one of the oldest and most widely applied concepts in the geosciences, but the geoscientific community lacks a coherent, easy-to-use tool to simulate flexure of a realistic (i.e., laterally heterogeneous) lithosphere under an arbitrary set of surface loads. Such a model is needed for studies of mountain building, sedimentary basin formation, glaciation, sea-level change, and other tectonic, geodynamic, and surface processes. Here I present gFlex (for GNU flexure), an open-source model that can produce analytical and finite difference solutions for lithospheric flexure in one (profile) and two (map view) dimensions. To simulate the flexural isostatic response to an imposed load, it can be used by itself or within GRASS GIS for better integration with field data. gFlex is also a component with the Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) and Landlab modeling frameworks for coupling with a wide range of Earth-surface-related models, and can be coupled to additional models within Python scripts. As an example of this in-script coupling, I simulate the effects of spatially variable lithospheric thickness on a modeled Iceland ice cap. Finite difference solutions in gFlex can use any of five types of boundary conditions: 0-displacement, 0-slope (i.e., clamped); 0-slope, 0-shear; 0-moment, 0-shear (i.e., broken plate); mirror symmetry; and periodic. Typical calculations with gFlex require << 1 s to similar to 1 min on a personal laptop computer. These characteristics - multiple ways to run the model, multiple solution methods, multiple boundary conditions, and short compute time - make gFlex an effective tool for flexural isostatic modeling across the geosciences. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 498 KW - EFFECTIVE ELASTIC THICKNESS KW - postglacial sea-level KW - oceanic lithospere KW - ice-sheet KW - spatial variations KW - gravity-anomalies KW - mountain-ranges KW - Lake Bonneville KW - heat-flow KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408366 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 498 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Emberson, Robert A1 - Hovius, Niels A1 - Galy, Albert A1 - Marc, Odin T1 - Oxidation of sulfides and rapid weathering in recent landslides T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Linking together the processes of rapid physical erosion and the resultant chemical dissolution of rock is a crucial step in building an overall deterministic understanding of weathering in mountain belts. Landslides, which are the most volumetrically important geomorphic process at these high rates of erosion, can generate extremely high rates of very localised weathering. To elucidate how this process works we have taken advantage of uniquely intense landsliding, resulting from Typhoon Morakot, in the T'aimali River and surrounds in southern Taiwan. Combining detailed analysis of landslide seepage chemistry with estimates of catchment-by-catchment landslide volumes, we demonstrate that in this setting the primary role of landslides is to introduce fresh, highly labile mineral phases into the surface weathering environment. There, rapid weathering is driven by the oxidation of pyrite and the resultant sulfuric-acid-driven dissolution of primarily carbonate rock. The total dissolved load correlates well with dissolved sulfate - the chief product of this style of weathering - in both landslides and streams draining the area (R-2 = 0.841 and 0.929 respectively; p < 0.001 in both cases), with solute chemistry in seepage from landslides and catchments affected by significant landsliding governed by the same weathering reactions. The predominance of coupled carbonate-sulfuric-acid-driven weathering is the key difference between these sites and previously studied landslides in New Zealand (Emberson et al., 2016), but in both settings increasing volumes of landslides drive greater overall solute concentrations in streams. Bedrock landslides, by excavating deep below saprolite-rock interfaces, create conditions for weathering in which all mineral phases in a lithology are initially unweathered within landslide deposits. As a result, the most labile phases dominate the weathering immediately after mobilisation and during a transient period of depletion. This mode of dissolution can strongly alter the overall output of solutes from catchments and their contribution to global chemical cycles if landslide-derived material is retained in catchments for extended periods after mass wasting. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 553 KW - physical erosion KW - Mountain Belt KW - Southwestern Taiwan KW - athmospheric CO2 KW - New-Zealand KW - climatic controls KW - Himalayan Rivers KW - Southern Alps KW - carbon-cycle KW - model Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-412326 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 553 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Willner, Sven N. A1 - Otto, Christian A1 - Kuhla, Kilian T1 - Post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1208 KW - model KW - origins KW - chains KW - impact KW - costs Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525819 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 9 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Willner, Sven N. A1 - Otto, Christian A1 - Kuhla, Kilian T1 - Post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario: short-term consumer benefit at the expense of long-term economic development JF - PLoS ONE N2 - After the United Kingdom has left the European Union it remains unclear whether the two parties can successfully negotiate and sign a trade agreement within the transition period. Ongoing negotiations, practical obstacles and resulting uncertainties make it highly unlikely that economic actors would be fully prepared to a “no-trade-deal” situation. Here we provide an economic shock simulation of the immediate aftermath of such a post-Brexit no-trade-deal scenario by computing the time evolution of more than 1.8 million interactions between more than 6,600 economic actors in the global trade network. We find an abrupt decline in the number of goods produced in the UK and the EU. This sudden output reduction is caused by drops in demand as customers on the respective other side of the Channel incorporate the new trade restriction into their decision-making. As a response, producers reduce prices in order to stimulate demand elsewhere. In the short term consumers benefit from lower prices but production value decreases with potentially severe socio-economic consequences in the longer term. KW - model KW - origins KW - chains KW - impact KW - costs Y1 - 2019 VL - 15 IS - 9 PB - PLOS CY - San Francisco ER -