TY - JOUR A1 - Georgiev, Vasil N. A1 - Grafmüller, Andrea A1 - Bléger, David A1 - Hecht, Stefan A1 - Kunstmann, Sonja A1 - Barbirz, Stefanie A1 - Lipowsky, Reinhard A1 - Dimova, Rumiana T1 - Area increase and budding in giant vesicles triggered by light BT - behind the scene JF - Advanced science N2 - Biomembranes are constantly remodeled and in cells, these processes are controlled and modulated by an assortment of membrane proteins. Here, it is shown that such remodeling can also be induced by photoresponsive molecules. The morphological control of giant vesicles in the presence of a water-soluble ortho-tetrafluoroazobenzene photoswitch (F-azo) is demonstrated and it is shown that the shape transformations are based on an increase in membrane area and generation of spontaneous curvature. The vesicles exhibit budding and the buds can be retracted by using light of a different wavelength. In the presence of F-azo, the membrane area can increase by more than 5% as assessed from vesicle electrodeformation. To elucidate the underlying molecular mechanism and the partitioning of F-azo in the membrane, molecular dynamics simulations are employed. Comparison with theoretically calculated shapes reveals that the budded shapes are governed by curvature elasticity, that the spontaneous curvature can be decomposed into a local and a nonlocal contribution, and that the local spontaneous curvature is about 1/(2.5 mu m). The results show that exo- and endocytotic events can be controlled by light and that these photoinduced processes provide an attractive method to change membrane area and morphology. KW - azobenzene KW - lipid membranes KW - molecular dynamics KW - photoswitch KW - vesicles Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/advs.201800432 SN - 2198-3844 VL - 5 IS - 8 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Clahsen, Harald A1 - Paulmann, Silke A1 - Budd, Mary-Jane A1 - Barry, Christopher T1 - Morphological encoding beyond slots and fillers BT - an ERP study of comparative formation in English JF - PLoS one N2 - One important organizational property of morphology is competition. Different means of expression are in conflict with each other for encoding the same grammatical function. In the current study, we examined the nature of this control mechanism by testing the formation of comparative adjectives in English during language production. Event-related brain potentials (ERPs) were recorded during cued silent production, the first study of this kind for comparative adjective formation. We specifically examined the ERP correlates of producing synthetic relative to analytic comparatives, e.g. angriervs. more angry. A frontal, bilaterally distributed, enhanced negative-going waveform for analytic comparatives (vis-a-vis synthetic ones) emerged approximately 300ms after the (silent) production cue. We argue that this ERP effect reflects a control mechanism that constrains grammatically-based computational processes (viz. more comparative formation). We also address the possibility that this particular ERP effect may belong to a family of previously observed negativities reflecting cognitive control monitoring, rather than morphological encoding processes per se. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0199897 SN - 1932-6203 VL - 13 IS - 7 PB - PLoS CY - San Fransisco ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sultana, Zakia A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Assessment of business interruption of flood-affected companies using random forests JF - Water N2 - Losses due to floods have dramatically increased over the past decades, and losses of companies, comprising direct and indirect losses, have a large share of the total economic losses. Thus, there is an urgent need to gain more quantitative knowledge about flood losses, particularly losses caused by business interruption, in order to mitigate the economic loss of companies. However, business interruption caused by floods is rarely assessed because of a lack of sufficiently detailed data. A survey was undertaken to explore processes influencing business interruption, which collected information on 557 companies affected by the severe flood in June 2013 in Germany. Based on this data set, the study aims to assess the business interruption of directly affected companies by means of a Random Forests model. Variables that influence the duration and costs of business interruption were identified by the variable importance measures of Random Forests. Additionally, Random Forest-based models were developed and tested for their capacity to estimate business interruption duration and associated costs. The water level was found to be the most important variable influencing the duration of business interruption. Other important variables, relating to the estimation of business interruption duration, are the warning time, perceived danger of flood recurrence and inundation duration. In contrast, the amount of business interruption costs is strongly influenced by the size of the company, as assessed by the number of employees, emergency measures undertaken by the company and the fraction of customers within a 50 km radius. These results provide useful information and methods for companies to mitigate their losses from business interruption. However, the heterogeneity of companies is relatively high, and sector-specific analyses were not possible due to the small sample size. Therefore, further sector-specific analyses on the basis of more flood loss data of companies are recommended. KW - business interruption KW - floods KW - Random Forests KW - companies KW - variable importance Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081049 SN - 2073-4441 VL - 10 IS - 8 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Grieve, Stuart W. D. A1 - Hales, Tristram C. A1 - Parker, Robert N. A1 - Mudd, Simon M. A1 - Clubb, Fiona J. T1 - Controls on Zero-Order Basin Morphology JF - Journal of geophysical research : Earth surface N2 - Zero-order basins are common features of soil-mantled landscapes, defined as unchanneled basins at the head of a drainage network. Their geometry and volume control how quickly sediment may reaccumulate after landslide evacuation and, more broadly, zero order basins govern the movement of water and sediment from hillslopes to the fluvial network. They also deliver water and sediment to the uppermost portions of the fluvial network. Despite this role as the moderator between hillslope and fluvial processes, little analysis on their morphology has been conducted at the landscape scale. We present a method to identify zero-order basins in landscapes and subsequently quantify their geometric properties using elliptical Fourier analysis. We deploy this method across the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory, USA. Properties such as length, relief, width, and concavity follow distinct probability distributions, which may serve as a basis for testing predictions of future landscape evolution models. Surprisingly, in a landscape with an orographic precipitation gradient and large hillslope to channel relief, we observe no correlation between elevation or spatial location and basin geometry. However, we find that two physiographic units in Coweeta have distinct zero-order basin morphologies. These are the steep, thin soiled, high-elevation Nantahala Escarpment and the lower-gradient, lower-elevation, thick soiled remainder of the basin. Our results indicate that basin slope and area negatively covary, producing the distinct forms observed between the two physiographic units, which we suggest arise through competition between spatially variable soil creep and stochastic landsliding. KW - zero-order basin KW - landslide KW - hillslope geomorphology KW - landscape evolution modeling KW - lidar KW - hillslope sediment transport Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JF004453 SN - 2169-9003 SN - 2169-9011 VL - 123 IS - 12 SP - 3269 EP - 3291 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merks, Anne Margarete A1 - Swinarski, Marie A1 - Meyer, Alexander Matthias A1 - Müller, Nicola Victoria A1 - Özcan, Ismail A1 - Donat, Stefan A1 - Burger, Alexa A1 - Gilbert, Stephen A1 - Mosimann, Christian A1 - Abdelilah-Seyfried, Salim A1 - Panakova, Daniela T1 - Planar cell polarity signalling coordinates heart tube remodelling through tissue-scale polarisation of actomyosin activity JF - Nature Communications N2 - Development of a multiple-chambered heart from the linear heart tube is inherently linked to cardiac looping. Although many molecular factors regulating the process of cardiac chamber ballooning have been identified, the cellular mechanisms underlying the chamber formation remain unclear. Here, we demonstrate that cardiac chambers remodel by cell neighbour exchange of cardiomyocytes guided by the planar cell polarity (PCP) pathway triggered by two non-canonical Wnt ligands, Wnt5b and Wnt11. We find that PCP signalling coordinates the localisation of actomyosin activity, and thus the efficiency of cell neighbour exchange. On a tissue-scale, PCP signalling planar-polarises tissue tension by restricting the actomyosin contractility to the apical membranes of outflow tract cells. The tissue-scale polarisation of actomyosin contractility is required for cardiac looping that occurs concurrently with chamber ballooning. Taken together, our data reveal that instructive PCP signals couple cardiac chamber expansion with cardiac looping through the organ-scale polarisation of actomyosin-based tissue tension. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04566-1 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 9 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Paijmans, Johanna L. A. A1 - Barlow, Axel A1 - Förster, Daniel W. A1 - Henneberger, Kirstin A1 - Meyer, Matthias A1 - Nickel, Birgit A1 - Nagel, Doris A1 - Worsøe Havmøller, Rasmus A1 - Baryshnikov, Gennady F. A1 - Joger, Ulrich A1 - Rosendahl, Wilfried A1 - Hofreiter, Michael T1 - Historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) and its extinct Eurasian populations JF - BMC Evolutionary Biology N2 - Background Resolving the historical biogeography of the leopard (Panthera pardus) is a complex issue, because patterns inferred from fossils and from molecular data lack congruence. Fossil evidence supports an African origin, and suggests that leopards were already present in Eurasia during the Early Pleistocene. Analysis of DNA sequences however, suggests a more recent, Middle Pleistocene shared ancestry of Asian and African leopards. These contrasting patterns led researchers to propose a two-stage hypothesis of leopard dispersal out of Africa: an initial Early Pleistocene colonisation of Asia and a subsequent replacement by a second colonisation wave during the Middle Pleistocene. The status of Late Pleistocene European leopards within this scenario is unclear: were these populations remnants of the first dispersal, or do the last surviving European leopards share more recent ancestry with their African counterparts? Results In this study, we generate and analyse mitogenome sequences from historical samples that span the entire modern leopard distribution, as well as from Late Pleistocene remains. We find a deep bifurcation between African and Eurasian mitochondrial lineages (~ 710 Ka), with the European ancient samples as sister to all Asian lineages (~ 483 Ka). The modern and historical mainland Asian lineages share a relatively recent common ancestor (~ 122 Ka), and we find one Javan sample nested within these. Conclusions The phylogenetic placement of the ancient European leopard as sister group to Asian leopards suggests that these populations originate from the same out-of-Africa dispersal which founded the Asian lineages. The coalescence time found for the mitochondrial lineages aligns well with the earliest undisputed fossils in Eurasia, and thus encourages a re-evaluation of the identification of the much older putative leopard fossils from the region. The relatively recent ancestry of all mainland Asian leopard lineages suggests that these populations underwent a severe population bottleneck during the Pleistocene. Finally, although only based on a single sample, the unexpected phylogenetic placement of the Javan leopard could be interpreted as evidence for exchange of mitochondrial lineages between Java and mainland Asia, calling for further investigation into the evolutionary history of this subspecies. KW - Ancient DNA KW - Hybridisation capture KW - Leopards KW - Mitochondrial genomes KW - Mitogenomes KW - mtDNA KW - Palaeogenetics KW - Panthera pardus Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12862-018-1268-0 SN - 1471-2148 VL - 18 IS - 156 PB - BioMed Central und Springer CY - London, Berlin und Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stettner, Samuel A1 - Lantuit, Hugues A1 - Heim, Birgit A1 - Eppler, Jayson A1 - Roth, Achim A1 - Bartsch, Annett A1 - Rabus, Bernhard T1 - TerraSAR-X time series fill a gap in spaceborne snowmelt monitoring of small arctic catchments BT - a case study on qikiqtaruk (Herschel Island), Canada JF - Remote sensing N2 - The timing of snowmelt is an important turning point in the seasonal cycle of small Arctic catchments. The TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite mission is a synthetic aperture radar system (SAR) with high potential to measure the high spatiotemporal variability of snow cover extent (SCE) and fractional snow cover (FSC) on the small catchment scale. We investigate the performance of multi-polarized and multi-pass TSX X-Band SAR data in monitoring SCE and FSC in small Arctic tundra catchments of Qikiqtaruk (Herschel Island) off the Yukon Coast in the Western Canadian Arctic. We applied a threshold based segmentation on ratio images between TSX images with wet snow and a dry snow reference, and tested the performance of two different thresholds. We quantitatively compared TSX- and Landsat 8-derived SCE maps using confusion matrices and analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of snowmelt from 2015 to 2017 using TSX, Landsat 8 and in situ time lapse data. Our data showed that the quality of SCE maps from TSX X-Band data is strongly influenced by polarization and to a lesser degree by incidence angle. VH polarized TSX data performed best in deriving SCE when compared to Landsat 8. TSX derived SCE maps from VH polarization detected late lying snow patches that were not detected by Landsat 8. Results of a local assessment of TSX FSC against the in situ data showed that TSX FSC accurately captured the temporal dynamics of different snow melt regimes that were related to topographic characteristics of the studied catchments. Both in situ and TSX FSC showed a longer snowmelt period in a catchment with higher contributions of steep valleys and a shorter snowmelt period in a catchment with higher contributions of upland terrain. Landsat 8 had fundamental data gaps during the snowmelt period in all 3 years due to cloud cover. The results also revealed that by choosing a positive threshold of 1 dB, detection of ice layers due to diurnal temperature variations resulted in a more accurate estimation of snow cover than a negative threshold that detects wet snow alone. We find that TSX X-Band data in VH polarization performs at a comparable quality to Landsat 8 in deriving SCE maps when a positive threshold is used. We conclude that TSX data polarization can be used to accurately monitor snowmelt events at high temporal and spatial resolution, overcoming limitations of Landsat 8, which due to cloud related data gaps generally only indicated the onset and end of snowmelt. KW - Snow Cover Extent (SCE) KW - TerraSAR-X KW - Landsat KW - wet snow KW - small Arctic catchments KW - satellite time series Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/rs10071155 SN - 2072-4292 VL - 10 IS - 7 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - van Velzen, Ellen A1 - Gaedke, Ursula T1 - Reversed predator BT - prey cycles are driven by the amplitude of prey oscillations JF - Ecology and Evolution N2 - Ecoevolutionary feedbacks in predator–prey systems have been shown to qualitatively alter predator–prey dynamics. As a striking example, defense–offense coevolution can reverse predator–prey cycles, so predator peaks precede prey peaks rather than vice versa. However, this has only rarely been shown in either model studies or empirical systems. Here, we investigate whether this rarity is a fundamental feature of reversed cycles by exploring under which conditions they should be found. For this, we first identify potential conditions and parameter ranges most likely to result in reversed cycles by developing a new measure, the effective prey biomass, which combines prey biomass with prey and predator traits, and represents the prey biomass as perceived by the predator. We show that predator dynamics always follow the dynamics of the effective prey biomass with a classic ¼‐phase lag. From this key insight, it follows that in reversed cycles (i.e., ¾‐lag), the dynamics of the actual and the effective prey biomass must be in antiphase with each other, that is, the effective prey biomass must be highest when actual prey biomass is lowest, and vice versa. Based on this, we predict that reversed cycles should be found mainly when oscillations in actual prey biomass are small and thus have limited impact on the dynamics of the effective prey biomass, which are mainly driven by trait changes. We then confirm this prediction using numerical simulations of a coevolutionary predator–prey system, varying the amplitude of the oscillations in prey biomass: Reversed cycles are consistently associated with regions of parameter space leading to small‐amplitude prey oscillations, offering a specific and highly testable prediction for conditions under which reversed cycles should occur in natural systems. KW - coevolution KW - ecoevolutionary dynamics KW - predator-prey dynamics KW - top-down control Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4184 SN - 2045-7758 SP - 1 EP - 13 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reeg, Jette A1 - Heine, Simon A1 - Mihan, Christine A1 - McGee, Sean A1 - Preuss, Thomas G. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Simulation of herbicide impacts on a plant community BT - comparing model predictions of the plant community model IBC-grass to empirical data JF - Environmental Sciences Europe N2 - Background Semi-natural plant communities such as field boundaries play an important ecological role in agricultural landscapes, e.g., provision of refuge for plant and other species, food web support or habitat connectivity. To prevent undesired effects of herbicide applications on these communities and their structure, the registration and application are regulated by risk assessment schemes in many industrialized countries. Standardized individual-level greenhouse experiments are conducted on a selection of crop and wild plant species to characterize the effects of herbicide loads potentially reaching off-field areas on non-target plants. Uncertainties regarding the protectiveness of such approaches to risk assessment might be addressed by assessment factors that are often under discussion. As an alternative approach, plant community models can be used to predict potential effects on plant communities of interest based on extrapolation of the individual-level effects measured in the standardized greenhouse experiments. In this study, we analyzed the reliability and adequacy of the plant community model IBC-grass (individual-based plant community model for grasslands) by comparing model predictions with empirically measured effects at the plant community level. Results We showed that the effects predicted by the model IBC-grass were in accordance with the empirical data. Based on the species-specific dose responses (calculated from empirical effects in monocultures measured 4 weeks after application), the model was able to realistically predict short-term herbicide impacts on communities when compared to empirical data. Conclusion The results presented in this study demonstrate an approach how the current standard greenhouse experiments—measuring herbicide impacts on individual-level—can be coupled with the model IBC-grass to estimate effects on plant community level. In this way, it can be used as a tool in ecological risk assessment. KW - Plant community model KW - Non-target terrestrial plants KW - Community-level effects KW - Herbicide risk assessment KW - Individual-based modeling Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1186/s12302-018-0174-9 SN - 2190-4715 SN - 2190-4707 VL - 30 IS - 44 PB - Springer CY - Berlin und Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cestnik, Rok A1 - Rosenblum, Michael T1 - Inferring the phase response curve from observation of a continuously perturbed oscillator JF - Scientific Reports N2 - Phase response curves are important for analysis and modeling of oscillatory dynamics in various applications, particularly in neuroscience. Standard experimental technique for determining them requires isolation of the system and application of a specifically designed input. However, isolation is not always feasible and we are compelled to observe the system in its natural environment under free-running conditions. To that end we propose an approach relying only on passive observations of the system and its input. We illustrate it with simulation results of an oscillator driven by a stochastic force. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-32069-y SN - 2045-2322 VL - 8 SP - 1 EP - 10 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Topçu, Çağdaş A1 - Frühwirth, Matthias A1 - Moser, Maximilian A1 - Rosenblum, Michael A1 - Pikovskij, Arkadij T1 - Disentangling respiratory sinus arrhythmia in heart rate variability records JF - Physiological Measurement N2 - Objective: Several different measures of heart rate variability, and particularly of respiratory sinus arrhythmia, are widely used in research and clinical applications. For many purposes it is important to know which features of heart rate variability are directly related to respiration and which are caused by other aspects of cardiac dynamics. Approach: Inspired by ideas from the theory of coupled oscillators, we use simultaneous measurements of respiratory and cardiac activity to perform a nonlinear disentanglement of the heart rate variability into the respiratory-related component and the rest. Main results: The theoretical consideration is illustrated by the analysis of 25 data sets from healthy subjects. In all cases we show how the disentanglement is manifested in the different measures of heart rate variability. Significance: The suggested technique can be exploited as a universal preprocessing tool, both for the analysis of respiratory influence on the heart rate and in cases when effects of other factors on the heart rate variability are in focus. KW - respiratory sinus arrhythmia KW - heart rate variability KW - coupled oscillators model KW - phase dynamics KW - data analysis Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1361-6579/aabea4 SN - 0967-3334 SN - 1361-6579 VL - 39 IS - 5 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Folkertsma, Remco A1 - Westbury, Michael V. A1 - Eccard, Jana A1 - Hofreiter, Michael T1 - The complete mitochondrial genome of the common vole, Microtus arvalis (Rodentia: Arvicolinae) JF - Mitochondrial DNA Part B N2 - The common vole, Microtus arvalis belongs to the genus Microtus in the subfamily Arvicolinae. In this study, the complete mitochondrial genome of M. arvalis was recovered using shotgun sequencing and an iterative mapping approach using three related species. Phylogenetic analyses using the sequence of 21 arvicoline species place the common vole as a sister species to the East European vole (Microtus levis), but as opposed to previous results we find no support for the recognition of the genus Neodon within the subfamily Arvicolinae, as this is, as well as the genus Lasiopodomys, found within the Microtus genus. KW - Microtus arvalis KW - Arvicolinae KW - mitochondrial genome KW - common vole KW - phylogeny Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/23802359.2018.1457994 SN - 2380-2359 VL - 3 IS - 1 SP - 446 EP - 447 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Abouserie, Ahed A1 - Schilde, Uwe A1 - Taubert, Andreas T1 - The crystal structure of N-butylpyridinium bis(μ2-dichlorido)-tetrachloridodicopper(II), C₁₈H₂₈N₂Cu₂Cl₆ JF - Zeitschrift für Kristallographie - New Crystal Structures N2 - C₉H₁₄Cl₃CuN, monoclinic, P2₁/n (no. 14), a = 9.6625(6) Å, b = 9.3486(3) Å, c = 14.1168(8) Å, β = 102.288(5)°, V = 1245.97(11) ų, Z = 4, Rgₜ(F) = 0.0182, wRᵣₑf(F²) = 0.0499, T = 210(2) K. KW - Ionic Liquid Precursor KW - Thermochromism KW - Salts KW - Nanostructures KW - Catalysis KW - Solvents KW - Complex KW - Gas Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1515/NCRS-2018-0099 SN - 2194-4946 SN - 2196-7105 VL - 233 IS - 4 SP - 743 EP - 746 PB - de Gruyter CY - Berlin und München ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Niebuur, Bart-Jan A1 - Puchmayr, Jonas A1 - Herold, Christian A1 - Kreuzer, Lucas A1 - Hildebrand, Viet A1 - Müller-Buschbaum, Peter A1 - Laschewsky, Andre A1 - Papadakis, Christine M. T1 - Polysulfobetaines in aqueous solution and in thin film geometry JF - Materials N2 - Polysulfobetaines in aqueous solution show upper critical solution temperature (UCST) behavior. We investigate here the representative of this class of materials, poly (N,N-dimethyl-N-(3-methacrylamidopropyl) ammonio propane sulfonate) (PSPP), with respect to: (i) the dynamics in aqueous solution above the cloud point as function of NaBr concentration; and (ii) the swelling behavior of thin films in water vapor as function of the initial film thickness. For PSPP solutions with a concentration of 5 wt.%, the temperature dependence of the intensity autocorrelation functions is measured with dynamic light scattering as function of molar mass and NaBr concentration (0-8 mM). We found a scaling of behavior for the scattered intensity and dynamic correlation length. The resulting spinodal temperatures showed a maximum at a certain (small) NaBr concentration, which is similar to the behavior of the cloud points measured previously by turbidimetry. The critical exponent of susceptibility depends on NaBr concentration, with a minimum value where the spinodal temperature is maximum and a trend towards the mean-field value of unity with increasing NaBr concentration. In contrast, the critical exponent of the correlation length does not depend on NaBr concentration and is lower than the value of 0.5 predicted by mean-field theory. For PSPP thin films, the swelling behavior was found to depend on film thickness. A film thickness of about 100 nm turns out to be the optimum thickness needed to obtain fast hydration with H2O. KW - polyzwitterions KW - polysulfobetaines KW - dynamic light scattering KW - phase behavior Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/ma11050850 SN - 1996-1944 VL - 11 IS - 5 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Delgado, José Miguel Martins A1 - Voss, Sebastian A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Murawski, Aline A1 - Rodrigues Pereira, José Marcelo A1 - Martins, Eduardo A1 - Vasconcelos Júnior, Francisco A1 - Francke, Till T1 - Seasonal drought prediction for semiarid northeastern Brazil BT - verification of six hydro-meteorological forecast products JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - A set of seasonal drought forecast models was assessed and verified for the Jaguaribe River in semiarid northeastern Brazil. Meteorological seasonal forecasts were provided by the operational forecasting system used at FUNCEME (Ceará’s research foundation for meteorology)and by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Three downscaling approaches (empirical quantile mapping, extended downscaling and weather pattern classification) were tested and combined with the models in hindcast mode for the period 1981 to 2014. The forecast issue time was January and the forecast period was January to June. Hydrological drought indices were obtained by fitting a multivariate linear regression to observations. In short, it was possible to obtain forecasts for (a) monthly precipitation,(b) meteorological drought indices, and (c) hydrological drought indices. The skill of the forecasting systems was evaluated with regard to root mean square error (RMSE), the Brier skill score (BSS) and the relative operating characteristic skill score (ROCSS). The tested forecasting products showed similar performance in the analyzed metrics. Forecasts of monthly precipitation had little or no skill considering RMSE and mostly no skill with BSS. A similar picture was seen when forecasting meteorological drought indices: low skill regarding RMSE and BSS and significant skill when discriminating hit rate and false alarm rate given by the ROCSS (forecasting drought events of, e.g., SPEI1 showed a ROCSS of around 0.5). Regarding the temporal variation of the forecast skill of the meteorological indices, it was greatest for April, when compared to the remaining months of the rainy season, while the skill of reservoir volume forecasts decreased with lead time. This work showed that a multi-model ensemble can forecast drought events of timescales relevant to water managers in northeastern Brazil with skill. But no or little skill could be found in the forecasts of monthly precipitation or drought indices of lower scales, like SPI1. Both this work and those here revisited showed that major steps forward are needed in forecasting the rainy season in northeastern Brazil. KW - Hydrological drought KW - River-Basin KW - Model KW - Patterns KW - Precipitation KW - Variability KW - Nordeste Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5041-2018 SN - 1027-5606 SN - 1607-7938 VL - 22 IS - 9 SP - 5041 EP - 5056 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Molina-Garcia, Daniel A1 - Sandev, Trifce A1 - Safdari, Hadiseh A1 - Pagnini, Gianni A1 - Chechkin, Aleksei V. A1 - Metzler, Ralf T1 - Crossover from anomalous to normal diffusion BT - truncated power-law noise correlations and applications to dynamics in lipid bilayers JF - New Journal of Physics N2 - Abstract The emerging diffusive dynamics in many complex systems show a characteristic crossover behaviour from anomalous to normal diffusion which is otherwise fitted by two independent power-laws. A prominent example for a subdiffusive–diffusive crossover are viscoelastic systems such as lipid bilayer membranes, while superdiffusive–diffusive crossovers occur in systems of actively moving biological cells. We here consider the general dynamics of a stochastic particle driven by so-called tempered fractional Gaussian noise, that is noise with Gaussian amplitude and power-law correlations, which are cut off at some mesoscopic time scale. Concretely we consider such noise with built-in exponential or power-law tempering, driving an overdamped Langevin equation (fractional Brownian motion) and fractional Langevin equation motion. We derive explicit expressions for the mean squared displacement and correlation functions, including different shapes of the crossover behaviour depending on the concrete tempering, and discuss the physical meaning of the tempering. In the case of power-law tempering we also find a crossover behaviour from faster to slower superdiffusion and slower to faster subdiffusion. As a direct application of our model we demonstrate that the obtained dynamics quantitatively describes the subdiffusion–diffusion and subdiffusion–subdiffusion crossover in lipid bilayer systems. We also show that a model of tempered fractional Brownian motion recently proposed by Sabzikar and Meerschaert leads to physically very different behaviour with a seemingly paradoxical ballistic long time scaling. KW - anomalous diffusion KW - truncated power-law correlated noise KW - lipid bilayer membrane dynamics Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1367-2630/aae4b2 SN - 1367-2630 VL - 20 PB - IOP Publishing Ltd CY - London und Bad Honnef ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schirrmeister, Lutz A1 - Bobrov, Anatoly A1 - Raschke, Elena A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Strauss, Jens A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Wetterich, Sebastian T1 - Late Holocene ice-wedge polygon dynamics in northeastern Siberian coastal lowlands JF - Arctic, antarctic, and alpine research : an interdisciplinary journal N2 - Ice-wedge polygons are common features of northeastern Siberian lowland periglacial tundra landscapes. To deduce the formation and alternation of ice-wedge polygons in the Kolyma Delta and in the Indigirka Lowland, we studied shallow cores, up to 1.3 m deep, from polygon center and rim locations. The formation of well-developed low-center polygons with elevated rims and wet centers is shown by the beginning of peat accumulation, increased organic matter contents, and changes in vegetation cover from Poaceae-, Alnus-, and Betula-dominated pollen spectra to dominating Cyperaceae and Botryoccocus presence, and Carex and Drepanocladus revolvens macro-fossils. Tecamoebae data support such a change from wetland to open-water conditions in polygon centers by changes from dominating eurybiontic and sphagnobiontic to hydrobiontic species assemblages. The peat accumulation indicates low-center polygon formation and started between 2380 +/- 30 and 1676 +/- 32 years before present (BP) in the Kolyma Delta. We recorded an opposite change from open-water to wetland conditions because of rim degradation and consecutive high-center polygon formation in the Indigirka Lowland between 2144 +/- 33 and 1632 +/- 32 years BP. The late Holocene records of polygon landscape development reveal changes in local hydrology and soil moisture. KW - Permafrost KW - cryolithology KW - radiocarbon dating KW - paleoecology KW - rhizopods KW - pollen KW - plant macro-fossils Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2018.1462595 SN - 1523-0430 SN - 1938-4246 VL - 50 IS - 1 PB - Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado CY - Boulder ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Fabian, Jenny A1 - Zlatanovic, Sanja A1 - Mutz, Michael A1 - Grossart, Hans-Peter A1 - van Geldern, Robert A1 - Ulrich, Andreas A1 - Gleixner, Gerd A1 - Premke, Katrin T1 - Environmental control on microbial turnover of leaf carbon in streams BT - Ecological function of phototrophic-heterotrophic interactions JF - Frontiers in microbiology N2 - In aquatic ecosystems, light availability can significantly influence microbial turnover of terrestrial organic matter through associated metabolic interactions between phototrophic and heterotrophic communities. However, particularly in streams, microbial functions vary significantly with the structure of the streambed, that is the distribution and spatial arrangement of sediment grains in the streambed. It is therefore essential to elucidate how environmental factors synergistically define the microbial turnover of terrestrial organic matter in order to better understand the ecological role of photoheterotrophic interactions in stream ecosystem processes. In outdoor experimental streams, we examined how the structure of streambeds modifies the influence of light availability on microbial turnover of leaf carbon (C). Furthermore, we investigated whether the studied relationships of microbial leaf C turnover to environmental conditions are affected by flow intermittency commonly occurring in streams. We applied leaves enriched with a C-13-stable isotope tracer and combined quantitative and isotope analyses. We thereby elucidated whether treatment induced changes in C turnover were associated with altered use of leaf C within the microbial food web. Moreover, isotope analyses were combined with measurements of microbial community composition to determine whether changes in community function were associated with a change in community composition. In this study, we present evidence, that environmental factors interactively determine how phototrophs and heterotrophs contribute to leaf C turnover. Light availability promoted the utilization of leaf C within the microbial food web, which was likely associated with a promoted availability of highly bioavailable metabolites of phototrophic origin. However, our results additionally confirm that the structure of the streambed modifies light-related changes in microbial C turnover. From our observations, we conclude that the streambed structure influences the strength of photo-heterotrophic interactions by defining the spatial availability of algal metabolites in the streambed and the composition of microbial communities. Collectively, our multifactorial approach provides valuable insights into environmental controls on the functioning of stream ecosystems. KW - algae KW - bacteria KW - microbial interactions KW - C-13 stable isotopes KW - PLFA KW - terrestrial carbon KW - streambed structure KW - light Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/fmicb.2018.01044 SN - 1664-302X VL - 9 PB - Frontiers Research Foundation CY - Lausanne ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Nizardo, Noverra M. A1 - Schanzenbach, Dirk A1 - Schönemann, Eric A1 - Laschewsky, Andre T1 - Exploring poly(ethylene glycol)-polyzwitterion diblock copolymers as biocompatible smart macrosurfactants featuring UCST-phase behavior in normal saline solution JF - Polymers N2 - Nonionic-zwitterionic diblock copolymers are designed to feature a coil-to-globule collapse transition with an upper critical solution temperature (UCST) in aqueous media, including physiological saline solution. The block copolymers that combine presumably highly biocompatible blocks are synthesized by chain extension of a poly(ethylene glycol) (PEG) macroinitiator via atom transfer radical polymerization (ATRP) of sulfobetaine and sulfabetaine methacrylates. Their thermoresponsive behavior is studied by variable temperature turbidimetry and H-1 NMR spectroscopy. While the polymers with polysulfobetaine blocks exhibit phase transitions in the physiologically interesting window of 30-50 degrees C only in pure aqueous solution, the polymers bearing polysulfabetaine blocks enabled phase transitions only in physiological saline solution. By copolymerizing a pair of structurally closely related sulfo-and sulfabetaine monomers, thermoresponsive behavior can be implemented in aqueous solutions of both low and high salinity. Surprisingly, the presence of the PEG blocks can affect the UCST-transitions of the polyzwitterions notably. In specific cases, this results in "schizophrenic" thermoresponsive behavior displaying simultaneously an UCST and an LCST (lower critical solution temperature) transition. Exploratory experiments on the UCST-transition triggered the encapsulation and release of various solvatochromic fluorescent dyes as model "cargos" failed, apparently due to the poor affinity even of charged organic compounds to the collapsed state of the polyzwitterions. KW - block copolymer KW - amphiphile KW - macrosurfactant KW - thermoresponsive self-assembly KW - polyzwitterion KW - upper critical solution temperature (UCST) KW - salting-in Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/polym10030325 SN - 2073-4360 VL - 10 IS - 3 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reindl, Nicole A1 - Finch, Nicolle L. A1 - Schaffenroth, Veronika A1 - Barstow, Martin A. A1 - Casewell, Sarah L. A1 - Geier, Stephan A1 - Bertolami Miller, Marcelo Miguel A1 - Taubenberger, Stefan T1 - Revealing the true nature of Hen 2-428 JF - Galaxies N2 - The nucleus of Hen 2-428 is a short orbital period (4.2 h) spectroscopic binary, whose status as potential supernovae type Ia progenitor has raised some controversy in the literature. We present preliminary results of a thorough analysis of this interesting system, which combines quantitative non-local thermodynamic (non-LTE) equilibrium spectral modelling, radial velocity analysis, multi-band light curve fitting, and state-of-the art stellar evolutionary calculations. Importantly, we find that the dynamical system mass that is derived by using all available He II lines does not exceed the Chandrasekhar mass limit. Furthermore, the individual masses of the two central stars are too small to lead to an SN Ia in case of a dynamical explosion during the merger process. KW - binaries: spectroscopic KW - stars: atmospheres KW - stars: abundances KW - supernovae Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/galaxies6030088 SN - 2075-4434 VL - 6 IS - 3 ER -