TY  - JOUR
A1  - Beauval, Céline
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Scherbaum, Frank
T1  - Probabilistic seismic hazard estimation in low-seismicity regions considering non-Poissonian seismic occurrence
N2  - In low-seismicity regions, such as France or Germany, the estimation of probabilistic seismic hazard must cope with the difficult identification of active faults and with the low amount of seismic data available. Since the probabilistic hazard method was initiated, most studies assume a Poissonian occurrence of earthquakes. Here we propose a method that enables the inclusion of time and space dependences between earthquakes into the probabilistic estimation of hazard. Combining the seismicity model Epidemic Type Aftershocks-Sequence (ETAS) with a Monte Carlo technique, aftershocks are naturally accounted for in the hazard determination. The method is applied to the Pyrenees region in Southern France. The impact on hazard of declustering and of the usual assumption that earthquakes occur according to a Poisson process is quantified, showing that aftershocks contribute on average less than 5 per cent to the probabilistic hazard, with an upper bound around 18 per cent
Y1  - 2006
UR  - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1365-246X
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2006.02863.x
SN  - 0956-540X
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Beauval, Celine
A1  - Hainzl, Sebastian
A1  - Scherbaum, Frank
T1  - The impact of the spatial uniform distribution of seismicity on probabilistic seismic-hazard estimation
JF  - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
N2  - The first step in the estimation of probabilistic seismic hazard in a region commonly consists of the definition and characterization of the relevant seismic sources. Because in low-seismicity regions seismicity is often rather diffuse and faults are difficult to identify, large areal source zones are mostly used. The corresponding hypothesis is that seismicity is uniformly distributed inside each areal seismic source zone. In this study, the impact of this hypothesis on the probabilistic hazard estimation is quantified through the generation of synthetic spatial seismicity distributions. Fractal seismicity distributions are generated inside a given source zone and probabilistic hazard is computed for a set of sites located inside this zone. In our study, the impact of the spatial seismicity distribution is defined as the deviation from the hazard value obtained for a spatially uniform seismicity distribution. From the generation of a large number of synthetic distributions, the correlation between the fractal dimension D and the impact is derived. The results show that the assumption of spatially uniform seismicity tends to bias the hazard to higher values. The correlation can be used to determine the systematic biases and uncertainties for hazard estimations in real cases, where the fractal dimension has been determined. We apply the technique in Germany (Cologne area) and in France (Alps).
Y1  - 2006
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060073
SN  - 0037-1106
VL  - 96
IS  - 6
SP  - 2465
EP  - 2471
PB  - GeoScienceWorld
CY  - Alexandria, Va.
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Al Atik, Linda
A1  - Abrahamson, Norman A.
A1  - Bommer, Julian J.
A1  - Scherbaum, Frank
A1  - Cotton, Fabrice
A1  - Kuehn, Nicolas
T1  - The variability of ground-motion prediction models and its components
Y1  - 2010
UR  - http://srl.geoscienceworld.org/
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.81.5.794
SN  - 0895-0695
ER  -