TY - GEN A1 - Keck, Wolfgang A1 - Kohler, Ulrich A1 - Nauenburg, Ricarda T1 - Quality of life in the european union and the candidate countries BT - harmonized eurobarometer datafile 1998-2002 N2 - Harmonized data file as the basis for comparative analysis of quality of life in the Candidate Countries and the European Union member states, based on seven different data sets, one Eurobarometer survey covering 13 Candidate Countries with an identical set of variables conducted in April 2002, the other six Standard Eurobarometer of different subjects and fielded in different years, each with another set of questions identical with the CC Eurobarometer. Selected aggregate indicators of quality of life ... describing the social situation in the EU15 and Candidate Countries. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.7802/1209 PB - WZB - Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stollenwerk, Eric A1 - Dörfler, Thomas A1 - Schibberges, Julian T1 - Taking a new perspective BT - Mapping the Al Qaeda network through the eyes of the UN security council JF - Terrorism and political violence N2 - Network analysis has attracted significant attention when researching the phenomenon of transnational terrorism, particularly Al Qaeda. While many scholars have made valuable contributions to mapping Al Qaeda, several problems remain due to a lack of data and the omission of data provided by international organizations such as the UN. Thus, this article applies a social network analysis and subsequent mappings of the data gleaned from the Security Council's consolidated sanctions list, and asks what they can demonstrate about the structure and organizational characteristics of Al Qaeda. The study maps the Al Qaeda network on a large scale using a newly compiled data set. The analysis reveals that the Al Qaeda network consists of several hundred individual and group nodes connecting almost all over the globe. Several major nodes are crucial for the network structure, while simultaneously many other nodes only weakly and foremost regionally connect to the network. The article concludes that the findings tie in well to the latest research pointing to local and simultaneously global elements of Al Qaeda, and that the new data is a valuable source for further analyses, potentially in combination with other data. KW - Al Qaeda KW - network KW - social network analysis KW - terrorism KW - UN Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/09546553.2014.987341 SN - 0954-6553 SN - 1556-1836 VL - 28 IS - 5 SP - 950 EP - 970 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Leib, Julia T1 - Shaping peace: an investigation of the mechanisms underlying post-conflict peacebuilding JF - Peace, conflict & development : an interdisciplinary journal N2 - What shapes peace, and how can peace be successfully built in those countries affected by armed conflict? This paper examines mpeacebuilding in the aftermath of civil wars in order to identify the conditions for post-conflict peace. The field of civil war research is characterised by case studies, comparative analyses and quantitative research, which relate relatively little to each other. Furthermore, the complex dynamics of peacebuilding have hardly been investigated so far. Thus, the question remains of how best to enhance the prospects of a stable peace in post-conflict societies. Therefore, it is necessary to capture the dynamics of post-conflict peace. This paper aims at helping to narrow these research gaps by 1) presenting the benefits of set theoretic methods for peace and conflict studies; 2) identifying remote conflict environment factors and proximate peacebuilding factors which have an influence on the peacebuilding process and 3) proposing a set-theoretic multi-method research approach in order to identify the causal structures and mechanisms underlying the complex realm of post-conflict peacebuilding. By implementing this transparent and systematic comparative approach, it will become possible to discover the dynamics of post-conflict peace. KW - civil war KW - peacebuilding KW - post-conflict peace KW - set theory KW - QCA Y1 - 2016 SN - 1742-0601 IS - 22 SP - 25 EP - 76 PB - Univ. CY - Bradford ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Gronau, Norbert A1 - Grum, Marcus A1 - Bender, Benedict T1 - Determining the optimal level of autonomy in cyber-physical production systems T2 - IEEE 14th International Conference on Industrial Informatics (INDIN) N2 - Traditional production systems are enhanced by cyber-physical systems (CPS) and Internet of Things. A kind of next generation systems, those cyber-physical production systems (CPPS) are able to raise the level of autonomy of its production components. To find the optimal degree of autonomy in a given context, a research approach is formulated using a simulation concept. Based on requirements and assumptions, a cyber-physical market is modeled and qualitative hypotheses are formulated, which will be verified with the help of the CPPS of a hybrid simulation environment. KW - cyber-physical systems KW - hybrid simulation KW - Internet of Things KW - manufacturing systems KW - production engineering computing KW - cyber-physical production systems Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1109/INDIN.2016.7819367 SP - 1293 EP - 1299 PB - IEEE CY - New York ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Glaschke, Christian A1 - Gronau, Norbert A1 - Bender, Benedict T1 - Cross-System Process Mining using RFID Technology T2 - Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Business Modeling and Software Design - BMSD N2 - In times of digitalization, the collection and modeling of business processes is still a challenge for companies. The demand for trustworthy process models that reflect the actual execution steps therefore increases. The respective kinds of processes significantly determine both, business process analysis and the conception of future target processes and they are the starting point for any kind of change initiatives. Existing approaches to model as-is processes, like process mining, are exclusively focused on reconstruction. Therefore, transactional protocols and limited data from a single application system are used. Heterogeneous application landscapes and business processes that are executed across multiple application systems, on the contrary, are one of the main challenges in process mining research. Using RFID technology is hence one approach to close the existing gap between different application systems. This paper focuses on methods for data collection from real world objects via RFID technology and possible combinations with application data (process mining) in order to realize a cross system mining approach. KW - Process Mining KW - RFID KW - Production KW - Cross-System Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-989-758-190-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5220/0006223501790186 SP - 179 EP - 186 PB - SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications CY - Setúbal ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Bender, Benedict A1 - Fabian, Benjamin A1 - Lessmann, Stefan A1 - Haupt, Johannes T1 - E-Mail Tracking BT - status quo and novel countermeasures T2 - Proceedings of the 37th International Conference on Information Systems (ICIS) N2 - E-mail advertisement, as one instrument in the marketing mix, allows companies to collect fine-grained behavioural data about individual users’ e-mail reading habits realised through sophisticated tracking mechanisms. Such tracking can be harmful for user privacy and security. This problem is especially severe since e-mail tracking techniques gather data without user consent. Striving to increase privacy and security in e-mail communication, the paper makes three contributions. First, a large database of newsletter e-mails is developed. This data facilitates investigating the prevalence of e- mail tracking among 300 global enterprises from Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States. Second, countermeasures are developed for automatically identifying and blocking e-mail tracking mechanisms without impeding the user experience. The approach consists of identifying important tracking descriptors and creating a neural network-based detection model. Last, the effectiveness of the proposed approach is established by means of empirical experimentation. The results suggest a classification accuracy of 99.99%. KW - E-Mail Tracking KW - Countermeasures KW - Privacy KW - Security KW - Machine Learning Y1 - 2016 UR - https://aisel.aisnet.org/icis2016/ISSecurity/Presentations/13/ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reindl, Nicole A1 - Rauch, Thomas A1 - Miller Bertolami, Marcelo Miguel A1 - Todt, Helge Tobias A1 - Werner, K. T1 - Breaking news from the HST BT - the central star of the Stingray Nebula is now returning towards the AGB JF - Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society N2 - SAO 244567 is a rare example of a star that allows us to witness stellar evolution in real time. Between 1971 and 1990, it changed from a B-type star into the hot central star of the Stingray Nebula. This observed rapid heating has been a mystery for decades, since it is in strong contradiction with the low mass of the star and canonical post-asymptotic giant branch (AGB) evolution. We speculated that SAO 244567 might have suffered from a late thermal pulse (LTP) and obtained new observations with Hubble Space Telescope (HST)/COS to follow the evolution of the surface properties of SAO 244567 and to verify the LTP hypothesis. Our non-LTE spectral analysis reveals that the star cooled significantly since 2002 and that its envelope is now expanding. Therefore, we conclude that SAO 244567 is currently on its way back towards the AGB, which strongly supports the LTP hypothesis. A comparison with state-of-the-art LTP evolutionary calculations shows that these models cannot fully reproduce the evolution of all surface parameters simultaneously, pointing out possible shortcomings of stellar evolution models. Thereby, SAO 244567 keeps on challenging stellar evolution theory and we highly encourage further investigations. KW - stars: AGB and post-AGB KW - stars: atmospheres KW - stars: evolution Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/mnrasl/slw175 SN - 0035-8711 SN - 1365-2966 VL - 464 SP - L51 EP - L55 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Apelojg, Benjamin T1 - Teachers do not make mistakes? BT - two exploratives case studies ; Relationships between biographical aspects, thinking, behavioral patterns and experiences in classes ; First results of a qualitative study on the aspect of dealing with mistakes T2 - ATLAS.ti User Conference 2015 N2 - This article provides some insights into the complex relationships between thinking and behavioral patterns, bio­ graphical aspects and teaching style. The data was analyzed in the Grounded Theory tradition and with the help of ATLAS.ti. The results presented here offer preliminary findings only since the research is still ongoing. The focus is on the ways teachers deal with mistakes. Based on two case examples, it will be shown how the fear of making mistakes can lead to teacher-centered lessons, and thereby limiting pupils' possibilities to learn autonomously. KW - Umgang mit Fehlern KW - Didaktik KW - persönliche Entwicklung KW - Lernen KW - Auswirkungen auf Schüler KW - Dealing with mistakes KW - personal development KW - learning KW - teaching KW - effects on pupils KW - ATLAS.t Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-3-7983-2822-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.14279/depositonce-5159 SP - 1 EP - 9 PB - Universitätsverlag der TU-Berlin CY - Berlin ER - TY - GEN A1 - Esguerra, Alejandro ED - Esguerra, Alejandro ED - Helmerich, Nicole ED - Risse, Thomas T1 - Conclusion T2 - Sustainability Politics and Limited Statehood: Contesting the New Modes of Governance N2 - This chapter revisits the role of the new modes of governance in areas of limited statehood. First, it states that there is no linear relationship between degrees of statehood and the overall effectiveness of new modes of sustainability governance. Second, the chapter states that, in most of the cases, national governments are hesitant or even actively hamper the development of new modes of governance. Third, it shows that the absence of the shadow of hierarchy can indeed lead to ineffective new modes of governance. However, the shadow of hierarchy does not necessarily need to be cast by states. Finally, the author reviews the complexities involved in participatory practices, stressing the importance of institutional structures and knowledgeable brokers. The chapter concludes by outlining fields for future research. Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-3-319-39871-6 SN - 978-3-319-39870-9 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39871-6_9 SP - 211 EP - 224 PB - Cham CY - Basingstoke ER - TY - GEN A1 - Esguerra, Alejandro T1 - "A Comment That Might Help Us to Move Along" BT - Brokers in Negotiation Systems T2 - Sustainability Politics and Limited Statehood : Contesting the New Modes of Governance N2 - This chapter investigates the trajectory of establishing the Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) in the early 1990s as the first private transnational certification organization with an antagonistic stakeholder body. Its main contribution is a micro-analysis of the founding assembly in 1993. By investigating the role of brokers within the negotiation as one institutional scope condition for ‘arguing’ having occurred, the chapter adopts a dramaturgical approach. It contends that the authority of brokers is not necessarily institutionally given, but needs to be gained: brokers have to prove situationally that their knowledge is relevant and that they are speaking impartially in the interest of progress rather than their own. The chapter stresses the importance of procedural knowledge which brokers provide in contrast to policy knowledge. Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-3-319-39871-6 SN - 978-3-319-39870-9 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39871-6_2 SP - 25 EP - 46 PB - Cham CY - Basingstoke ER - TY - GEN A1 - Esguerra, Alejandro A1 - Helmerich, Nicole A1 - Risse, Thomas T1 - Introduction T2 - Sustainability Politics and Limited Statehood: Contesting the New Modes of Governance N2 - The Paris Agreement for Climate Change or the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) rely on new modes of governance for implementation. Indeed, new modes of governance such as market-based instruments, public-private partnerships or multi-stakeholder initiatives have been praised for playing a pivotal role in effective and legitimate sustainability governance. Yet, do they also deliver in areas of limited statehood? States such as Malaysia or the Dominican Republic partly lack the ability to implement and enforce rules; their statehood is limited. This introduction provides the analytical framework of this volume and critically examines the performance of new modes of governance in areas of limited statehood, drawing on the book’s in-depth case studies on issues of climate change, biodiversity, and health. Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-3-319-39871-6 SN - 978-3-319-39870-9 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-39871-6_1 SP - 1 EP - 22 PB - Palgrave Macmillan, Cham CY - Basingstoke ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Discher, Sören A1 - Richter, Rico A1 - Döllner, Jürgen Roland Friedrich T1 - Interactive and View-Dependent See-Through Lenses for Massive 3D Point Clouds JF - Advances in 3D Geoinformation N2 - 3D point clouds are a digital representation of our world and used in a variety of applications. They are captured with LiDAR or derived by image-matching approaches to get surface information of objects, e.g., indoor scenes, buildings, infrastructures, cities, and landscapes. We present novel interaction and visualization techniques for heterogeneous, time variant, and semantically rich 3D point clouds. Interactive and view-dependent see-through lenses are introduced as exploration tools to enhance recognition of objects, semantics, and temporal changes within 3D point cloud depictions. We also develop filtering and highlighting techniques that are used to dissolve occlusion to give context-specific insights. All techniques can be combined with an out-of-core real-time rendering system for massive 3D point clouds. We have evaluated the presented approach with 3D point clouds from different application domains. The results show the usability and how different visualization and exploration tasks can be improved for a variety of domain-specific applications. KW - 3D point clouds KW - LIDAR KW - Visualization KW - Point-based rendering Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-3-319-25691-7 SN - 978-3-319-25689-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25691-7_3 SN - 1863-2246 SP - 49 EP - 62 PB - Springer CY - Cham ER - TY - GEN A1 - Martinez-Valdes, Eduardo A1 - Negro, Francesco A1 - Laine, Christopher M. A1 - Falla, Deborah L. A1 - Mayer, Frank A1 - Farina, Dario T1 - Identifying motor units in longitudinal studies with high-density surface electromyography T2 - Converging clinical and engineering research on neurorehabilitation II N2 - We investigated the possibility to identify motor units (MUs) with high-density surface electromyography (HDEMG) over experimental sessions in different days. 10 subjects performed submaximal knee extensions across three sessions in three days separated by one week, while EMG was recorded from the vastus medialis muscle with high-density electrode grids. The shapes of the MU action potentials (MUAPs) over multiple channels extracted from HDEMG decomposition were matched across sessions by cross-correlation. Forty and twenty percent of the MUs decomposed could be tracked across two and three sessions, respectively (average cross correlation 0.85 +/- 0.04). The estimated properties of the matched motor units were similar across the sessions. For example, mean discharge rate and recruitment thresholds were measured with an intra-class correlation coefficient (ICCs) > 0.80. These results strongly suggest that the same MUs were indeed identified across sessions. This possibility will allow monitoring changes in MU properties following interventions or during the progression of neuromuscular disorders. Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-3-319-46669-9 SN - 978-3-319-46668-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-46669-9_27 SN - 2195-3562 VL - 15 SP - 147 EP - 151 PB - Springer CY - Cham ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Busch, Per-Olof A1 - Liese, Andrea T1 - The authority of international public administrations JF - International Bureaucracy: Challenges and Lessons for Public Administration Research N2 - This chapter takes stock with the research on the authority of international organizations (IOs) and international public administrations (IPAs) in the fields of International Relations (IR) and Public Administration (PA). It combines arguments from conceptual and theoretical debates with empirical findings to explore under which conditions IPAs are likely to enjoy authority. Based on a review of the literature and on conceptual clarifications, we define authority as a social relationship between holders and granters of authority. We distinguish two types of authority, namely, political and expert authority, and two forms of recognition, namely, in practice (de facto) and by formal delegation (de jure). Given that the de facto expert authority of IPAs has received least attention in the literature, while the PA literature reminds us that knowledge lies at the heart of bureaucratic power, we develop propositions on how de facto expert authority could be measured and how the anticipated variation of expert authority among IPAs could be explained. We illustrate our argument with reference to empirical findings in the IR and PA literature. We conclude by highlighting the implications of our discussion for future research on the authority of national and IPAs. Y1 - 2016 SN - 978-1-349-94977-9 SN - 978-1-349-94976-2 SN - 978-1-349-95692-0 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1057/978-1-349-94977-9_5 SP - 97 EP - 122 PB - Palgrave Macmillan, London CY - Basingstoke ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krüger, Tobias A1 - Kelling, Alexandra A1 - Schilde, Uwe A1 - Linker, Torsten T1 - Simple Synthesis of gamma-Spirolactams by Birch Reduction of Benzoic Acids JF - European journal of organic chemistry N2 - A convenient synthesis of gamma-spirolactams in only two steps was developed. Birch reduction of benzoic acids and immediate alkylation with chloroacetonitrile afforded cyclohexadienes in high yields. The products could be isolated by crystallization on a large scale in analytically pure form. Subsequent hydrogenation with platinum(IV) oxide as the catalyst reduced the nitrile functionality and the double bonds in the same step with excellent stereoselectivity. The relative configurations were determined unequivocally by X-ray analyses. Direct cyclization of the intermediary formed amino acids afforded the desired gamma-spirolactams in excellent overall yields. The procedure is characterized by few steps, cheap reagents, and can be performed on a large scale, interesting for industrial processes. KW - Diastereoselectivity KW - Hydrogenation KW - Lactams KW - Reduction KW - Synthetic methods Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ejoc.201601650 SN - 1434-193X SN - 1099-0690 IS - 6 SP - 1074 EP - 1077 PB - Wiley-VCH CY - Weinheim ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lazarides, Rebecca A1 - Rubach, Charlott A1 - Ittel, Angela T1 - Adolescents’ perceptions of socializers’ beliefs, career-related conversations, and motivation in mathematics JF - Developmental psychology N2 - Research based on the Eccles model of parent socialization demonstrated that parents are an important source of value and ability information for their children. Little is known, however, about the bidirectional effects between students’ perceptions of their parents’ beliefs and behaviors and the students’ own domain-specific values. This study analyzed how students’ perceptions of parents’ beliefs and behaviors and students’ mathematics values and mathematics-related career plans affect each other bidirectionally, and analyzed the role of students’ gender as a moderator of these relations. Data from 475 students in 11th and 12th grade (girls: 50.3%; 31 classrooms; 12 schools), who participated in 2 waves of the study, were analyzed. Results of longitudinal structural equation models demonstrated that students’ perceptions of their parents’ mathematics value beliefs at Time 1 affected the students’ own mathematics utility value at Time 2. Bidirectional effects were not shown in the full sample but were identified for boys. The paths within the tested model varied for boys and girls. For example, boys’, not girls’, mathematics intrinsic value predicted their reported conversations with their fathers about future occupational plans. Boys’, not girls’, perceived parents’ mathematics value predicted the mathematics utility value. Findings are discussed in relation to their implications for parents and teachers, as well as in relation to gendered motivational processes. KW - parents’ beliefs KW - parent–child conversations KW - motivation KW - mathematics KW - gender Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1037/dev0000270 SN - 0012-1649 SN - 1939-0599 VL - 53 IS - 3 SP - 525 EP - 539 PB - American Psychological Association CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Hedayat Mahmoudi, Mahdi A1 - Schulze, Bert-Wolfgang T1 - Corner boundary value problems JF - Asian-European journal of mathematics N2 - The paper develops some crucial steps in extending the first-order cone or edge calculus to higher singularity orders. We focus here on order 2, but the ideas are motivated by an iterative approach for higher singularities. KW - Mellin operators KW - Mellin oscillatory integrals KW - exit calculus KW - weighted Sobolev spaces Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1142/S1793557117500541 SN - 1793-5571 SN - 1793-7183 VL - 10 IS - 1 PB - World Scientific CY - Singapore ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Salamat, Mona A1 - Zare, Mehdi A1 - Holschneider, Matthias A1 - Zöller, Gert T1 - Calculation of Confidence Intervals for the Maximum Magnitude of Earthquakes in Different Seismotectonic Zones of Iran JF - Pure and applied geophysics N2 - The problem of estimating the maximum possible earthquake magnitude m(max) has attracted growing attention in recent years. Due to sparse data, the role of uncertainties becomes crucial. In this work, we determine the uncertainties related to the maximum magnitude in terms of confidence intervals. Using an earthquake catalog of Iran, m(max) is estimated for different predefined levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones. Assuming the doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter distribution as a statistical model for earthquake magnitudes, confidence intervals for the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes are calculated in each zone. While the lower limit of the confidence interval is the magnitude of the maximum observed event, the upper limit is calculated from the catalog and the statistical model. For this aim, we use the original catalog which no declustering methods applied on as well as a declustered version of the catalog. Based on the study by Holschneider et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 101(4): 1649-1659, 2011), the confidence interval for m(max) is frequently unbounded, especially if high levels of confidence are required. In this case, no information is gained from the data. Therefore, we elaborate for which settings finite confidence levels are obtained. In this work, Iran is divided into six seismotectonic zones, namely Alborz, Azerbaijan, Zagros, Makran, Kopet Dagh, Central Iran. Although calculations of the confidence interval in Central Iran and Zagros seismotectonic zones are relatively acceptable for meaningful levels of confidence, results in Kopet Dagh, Alborz, Azerbaijan and Makran are not that much promising. The results indicate that estimating mmax from an earthquake catalog for reasonable levels of confidence alone is almost impossible. KW - Maximum magnitude of earthquake KW - Level of confidence KW - Confidence interval Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-016-1418-5 SN - 0033-4553 SN - 1420-9136 VL - 174 SP - 763 EP - 777 PB - Springer CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schmidt, Burkhard A1 - Lorenz, Ulf T1 - WavePacket BT - a Matlab package for numerical quantum dynamics. I: Closed quantum systems and discrete variable representations JF - Computer physics communications : an international journal devoted to computational physics and computer programs in physics N2 - WavePacket is an open-source program package for the numerical simulation of quantum-mechanical dynamics. It can be used to solve time-independent or time-dependent linear Schrödinger and Liouville–von Neumann-equations in one or more dimensions. Also coupled equations can be treated, which allows to simulate molecular quantum dynamics beyond the Born–Oppenheimer approximation. Optionally accounting for the interaction with external electric fields within the semiclassical dipole approximation, WavePacket can be used to simulate experiments involving tailored light pulses in photo-induced physics or chemistry. The graphical capabilities allow visualization of quantum dynamics ‘on the fly’, including Wigner phase space representations. Being easy to use and highly versatile, WavePacket is well suited for the teaching of quantum mechanics as well as for research projects in atomic, molecular and optical physics or in physical or theoretical chemistry. The present Part I deals with the description of closed quantum systems in terms of Schrödinger equations. The emphasis is on discrete variable representations for spatial discretization as well as various techniques for temporal discretization. The upcoming Part II will focus on open quantum systems and dimension reduction; it also describes the codes for optimal control of quantum dynamics. The present work introduces the MATLAB version of WavePacket 5.2.1 which is hosted at the Sourceforge platform, where extensive Wiki-documentation as well as worked-out demonstration examples can be found. KW - Schrodinger equation KW - Quantum dynamics KW - Numerical propagation KW - Bound states KW - Discrete variable representation KW - Non-adiabatic transitions Y1 - 0207 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cpc.2016.12.007 SN - 0010-4655 SN - 1879-2944 VL - 213 SP - 223 EP - 234 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Botto, Anna A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Probabilistic, Multivariable Flood Loss Modeling on the Mesoscale with BT-FLEMO JF - Risk analysis N2 - Flood loss modeling is an important component for risk analyses and decision support in flood risk management. Commonly, flood loss models describe complex damaging processes by simple, deterministic approaches like depth-damage functions and are associated with large uncertainty. To improve flood loss estimation and to provide quantitative information about the uncertainty associated with loss modeling, a probabilistic, multivariable Bagging decision Tree Flood Loss Estimation MOdel (BT-FLEMO) for residential buildings was developed. The application of BT-FLEMO provides a probability distribution of estimated losses to residential buildings per municipality. BT-FLEMO was applied and validated at the mesoscale in 19 municipalities that were affected during the 2002 flood by the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Validation was undertaken on the one hand via a comparison with six deterministic loss models, including both depth-damage functions and multivariable models. On the other hand, the results were compared with official loss data. BT-FLEMO outperforms deterministic, univariable, and multivariable models with regard to model accuracy, although the prediction uncertainty remains high. An important advantage of BT-FLEMO is the quantification of prediction uncertainty. The probability distribution of loss estimates by BT-FLEMO well represents the variation range of loss estimates of the other models in the case study. KW - Damage modeling KW - multiparameter KW - probabilistic KW - uncertainty KW - validation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12650 SN - 0272-4332 SN - 1539-6924 VL - 37 IS - 4 SP - 774 EP - 787 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER -