TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. T1 - Environment meets statistics : Quantitative analysis of international environmental policy Y1 - 2004 SN - 0-472-06861-X ER - TY - INPR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. T1 - Long-Term environmental policy challenges for research T2 - The journal of environment & development : a review of international policy N2 - Long-term policy issues are a particularly vexing class of environmental policy issues which merit increasing attention due to the long-time horizons involved, the incongruity with political cycles, and the challenges for collective action. Following the definition of long-term environmental policy challenges, I pose three questions as challenges for future research, namely 1. Are present democracies well suited to cope with long-term policy challenges? 2. Are top-down or bottom-up solutions to long-term environmental policy challenges advisable? 3. Will mitigation and adaptation of environmental challenges suffice? In concluding, the contribution raises the issue of credible commitment for long-term policy issues and potential design options. KW - anniversary issue KW - long-term policy KW - definition KW - design options KW - environmental policy Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496511435667 SN - 1070-4965 VL - 21 IS - 1 SP - 67 EP - 70 PB - Sage Publ. CY - Thousand Oaks ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. T1 - Problems of cross-level inference in political science N2 - Political Science research encounters inferences across levels of analysis; however, they are fraught with challenges. After introducing voting examples of aggregation bias, problems posed by aggregation bias are summarized more generally. Subsequently, the article reviews the major methodological approaches to overcome aggregation bias and to solve the ecological inference (disaggregation) problem. The article highlights the possibility that aggregation bias may lead governments to accept (or reject) international climate agreements when negotiating as blocs of countries as compared to the distribution of the preferences of all countries involved in the negotiations. Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. T1 - Long-term policy problems: definition, origins, and redponses JF - Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics Y1 - 2014 SN - 978-1-78347-186-7 SP - 126 EP - 143 PB - Elgar CY - Northampton ER - TY - GEN A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. T1 - Long-term environmental policy BT - challenges for research N2 - Long-term policy issues are a particularly vexing class of environmental policy issues which merit increasing attention due to the long-time horizons involved, the incongruity with political cycles, and the challenges for collective action. Following the definition of long-term environmental policy challenges, I pose three questions as challenges for future research, namely 1. Are present democracies well suited to cope with long-term policy challenges? 2. Are top-down or bottom-up solutions to long-term environmental policy challenges advisable? 3. Will mitigation and adaptation of environmental challenges suffice? In concluding, the contribution raises the issue of credible commitment for long-term policy issues and potential design options. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 81 KW - anniversary issue KW - long-term policy KW - definition KW - design options KW - environmental policy Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-403193 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. ED - Morin, Jean-Frédéric ED - Orsini, Amandine T1 - Effectiveness T2 - Essential concepts of global environmental governance Y1 - 2021 SN - 978-0-367-41869-4 SN - 978-0-367-41870-0 SN - 978-0-367-81668-1 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4324/9780367816681-34 SP - 80 EP - 83 PB - Routledge CY - Abingdon ET - Second edition ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. ED - Jörgens, Helge ED - Knill, Christoph ED - Steinebach, Yves T1 - The challenge of long-term environmental policy T2 - Routledge handbook of environmental policy N2 - Long-term environmental policy remains a vexing puzzle of environmental policy. Following its definition, the author reviews the methods suitable for the study of long-term environmental policy and develops a typology of policy instruments to cope with these challenges. The concluding section offers five central research challenges to advance the study of long-term environmental policy. Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-0-367-48992-2 SN - 978-1-032-50311-0 SN - 978-1-003-04384-3 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003043843-26 SP - 305 EP - 314 PB - Routledge CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Bang, Guri A1 - Brueckner, Lars A1 - Kameyama, Yasuko ED - Luterbacher, Urs ED - Sprinz, Detlef F. T1 - Major Countries JF - Global climate policy: actors, concepts, and enduring challenges Y1 - 2018 SN - 978-0-262-53534-2 SN - 978-0-262-03792-1 SP - 171 EP - 216 PB - MIT Press CY - Cambridge ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno A1 - Kallbekken, Steffen A1 - Stokman, Frans A1 - Saelen, Hakon A1 - Thomson, Robert T1 - Predicting Paris: Multi-Method Approaches to Forecast the Outcomes of Global Climate Negotiations JF - Politics and Governance N2 - We examine the negotiations held under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention of Climate Change in Paris, December 2015. Prior to these negotiations, there was considerable uncertainty about whether an agreement would be reached, particularly given that the world’s leaders failed to do so in the 2009 negotiations held in Copenhagen. Amid this uncertainty, we applied three different methods to predict the outcomes: an expert survey and two negotiation simulation models, namely the Exchange Model and the Predictioneer’s Game. After the event, these predictions were assessed against the coded texts that were agreed in Paris. The evidence suggests that combining experts’ predictions to reach a collective expert prediction makes for significantly more accurate predictions than individual experts’ predictions. The differences in the performance between the two different negotiation simulation models were not statistically significant. KW - climate policy KW - climate regime KW - expert survey KW - forecasting KW - global negotiations KW - Paris agreement KW - prediction KW - simulation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v4i3.654 SN - 2183-2463 VL - 4 SP - 172 EP - 187 PB - Cogitatio Press CY - Lisbon ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Shreejaya, Shradha A1 - Prasad, Devi K. V. T1 - Predicting climate policy choices BT - the Indian water mission T2 - Leidenschaft und Augenmaß : sozialwissenschaftliche Perspektiven auf Entwicklung, Verwaltung, Umwelt und Klima : Festschrift für Harald Fuhr Y1 - 2020 SN - 978-3-8487-5249-2 SN - 978-3-8452-9429-2 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5771/9783845294292-207 SP - 207 EP - 220 PB - Nomos CY - Baden-Baden ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - von Buenau, Steffen T1 - The Compensation Fund for Climate Impacts JF - WEATHER CLIMATE AND SOCIETY N2 - Climate change is very likely to lead to undesirable climate impacts. How to compensate for such negative impacts at the international level has, hitherto, received little attention. This article reviews the most frequently discussed grounds for legal obligations of states vis-a-vis climate impacts (damages) and concludes that no convincing mechanism has yet been found to compensate climate impacts. The authors outline an architecture for a voluntary, international compensation fund with specialized, independent climate courts. Subsequently, this article addresses three strategic considerations related to the fund, namely, the incentives for founding it, the merits of double proportionality with respect to contributions and payments, as well as the benefits of employing prediction markets to enhance trustworthiness. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00010.1 SN - 1948-8327 SN - 1948-8335 VL - 5 IS - 3 SP - 210 EP - 220 PB - AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC CY - BOSTON ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Wahl, Andreas T1 - Reversing (Inter)national policy : Germanyïs response to transboundary air pollution N2 - Perhaps like no other country, Germany has radically changed its policies towards regulating air pollution in the European context. Acting originally as a dragger in the 1970s to regulate transboundary air pollutants due to pessimism about the relationship between causes and effects, Germany responded very decisively to its own damage assessment in the early 1980s. In particular the adverse effects to forests (Waldsterben" or forest decline) led to the formulation of strict air pollution regulations in the domestic context, efforts to spread the regulatory system within the European Union, and activities within the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe to foster stronger, continent-wide emission reductions. Using three conceptual models (rational actor, domestic politics, and social learning), we show that Germany deviated strongly from the ideal policy cycle consisting of (i) domestic policy formulation, (ii) international negotiations, as well as (iii) implementation and compliance with the provisions of international environmental agreements. Both national policy-making as well as partial implementation have been well on the way towards compliance even before Germany entered international negotiations on substantive protocols. Therefore, one may conclude from this country study that push countries may use the results of their national policy processes to influence the policy of other countries. Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Wolinsky-Nahmias, Yael T1 - Introduction : Methodology in international relations research Y1 - 2004 SN - 0-472-06861-X ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Wolinsky-Nahmias, Yael T1 - Conclusion : Multimedhod Research Y1 - 2004 SN - 0-472-06861-X ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sælen, Håkon A1 - Hovi, Jon A1 - Sprinz, Detlef F. A1 - Underdal, Arild T1 - How US withdrawal might influence cooperation under the Paris climate agreement JF - Environmental science & policy N2 - Using a novel agent-based model, we study how US withdrawal might influence the political process established by the Paris Agreement, and hence the prospects for reaching the collective goal to limit warming below 2 degrees C. Our model enables us to analyze to what extent reaching this goal despite US withdrawal would place more stringent requirements on other core elements of the Paris cooperation process. We find, first, that the effect of a US withdrawal depends critically on the extent to which member countries reciprocate others' promises and contributions. Second, while the 2 degrees C goal will likely be reached only under a very small set of conditions in any event, even temporary US withdrawal will further narrow this set significantly. Reaching this goal will then require other countries to step up their ambition at the first opportunity and to comply nearly 100% with their pledges, while maintaining high confidence in the Paris Agreements institutions. Third, although a US withdrawal will first primarily affect the United States' own emissions, it will eventually prove even more detrimental to other countries' emissions. KW - climate change KW - Paris agreement KW - President Trump KW - 2 degrees C target KW - agent-based modeling KW - reciprocity Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2020.03.011 SN - 1462-9011 SN - 1873-6416 VL - 108 SP - 121 EP - 132 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER -