TY - JOUR A1 - Kornhuber, Kai A1 - Petoukhov, Vladimir A1 - Karoly, D. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Summertime Planetary Wave Resonance in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres JF - Journal of climate Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0703.1 SN - 0894-8755 SN - 1520-0442 VL - 30 SP - 6133 EP - 6150 PB - American Meteorological Soc. CY - Boston ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kornhuber, Kai A1 - Petoukhov, Vladimir A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Evidence for wave resonance as a key mechanism for generating high-amplitude quasi-stationary waves in boreal summer JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - Several recent northern hemisphere summer extremes have been linked to persistent high-amplitude wave patterns (e.g. heat waves in Europe 2003, Russia 2010 and in the US 2011, Floods in Pakistan 2010 and Europe 2013). Recently quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) was proposed as a mechanism that, when certain dynamical conditions are fulfilled, can lead to such high-amplitude wave events. Based on these resonance conditions a detection scheme to scan reanalysis data for QRA events in boreal summer months was implemented. With this objective detection scheme we analyzed the occurrence and duration of QRA events and the associated atmospheric flow patterns in 1979-2015 reanalysis data. We detect a total number of 178 events for wave 6, 7 and 8 and find that during roughly one-third of all high amplitude events QRA conditions were met for respective waves. Our analysis reveals a significant shift for quasi-stationary waves 6 and 7 towards high amplitudes during QRA events, lagging first QRA-detection by typically one week. The results provide further evidence for the validity of the QRA hypothesis and its important role in generating high amplitude waves in boreal summer. KW - Rossby waves KW - Wave resonance KW - Atmospheric dynamics KW - Extreme weather Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3399-6 SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 49 SP - 1961 EP - 1979 PB - Springer CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kreuzer, Moritz A1 - Reese, Ronja A1 - Huiskamp, Willem Nicholas A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Albrecht, Torsten A1 - Feulner, Georg A1 - Winkelmann, Ricarda T1 - Coupling framework (1.0) for the PISM (1.1.4) ice sheet model and the MOMS (5.1.0) ocean model via the PICO ice shelf cavity model in an Antarctic domain JF - Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - The past and future evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is largely controlled by interactions between the ocean and floating ice shelves. To investigate these interactions, coupled ocean and ice sheet model configurations are required. Previous modelling studies have mostly relied on high-resolution configurations, limiting these studies to individual glaciers or regions over short timescales of decades to a few centuries. We present a framework to couple the dynamic ice sheet model PISM (Parallel Ice Sheet Model) with the global ocean general circulation model MOM5 (Modular Ocean Model) via the ice shelf cavity model PICO (Pots-dam Ice-shelf Cavity mOdel). As ice shelf cavities are not resolved by MOM5 but are parameterized with the PICO box model, the framework allows the ice sheet and ocean components to be run at resolutions of 16 km and 3 degrees respectively. This approach makes the coupled configuration a useful tool for the analysis of interactions between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean over time spans of the order of centuries to millennia. In this study, we describe the technical implementation of this coupling framework: sub-shelf melting in the ice sheet component is calculated by PICO from modelled ocean temperatures and salinities at the depth of the continental shelf, and, vice versa, the resulting mass and energy fluxes from melting at the ice-ocean interface are transferred to the ocean component. Mass and energy fluxes are shown to be conserved to machine precision across the considered component domains. The implementation is computationally efficient as it introduces only minimal overhead. Furthermore, the coupled model is evaluated in a 4000 year simulation under constant present-day climate forcing and is found to be stable with respect to the ocean and ice sheet spin-up states. The framework deals with heterogeneous spatial grid geometries, varying grid resolutions, and timescales between the ice and ocean component in a generic way; thus, it can be adopted to a wide range of model set-ups. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-3697-2021 SN - 1991-959X SN - 1991-9603 VL - 14 IS - 6 SP - 3697 EP - 3714 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Mann, Michael E. A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Kornhuber, Kai A1 - Steinman, Byron A. A1 - Miller, Sonya K. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events BT - The role of quasi-resonant amplification JF - Science Advances N2 - Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aat3272 SN - 2375-2548 VL - 4 IS - 10 PB - American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science CY - Washington ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mann, Michael E. A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Kornhuber, Kai A1 - Steinman, Byron A. A1 - Miller, Sonya K. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Projected changes in persistent extreme summer weather events BT - the role of quasi-resonant amplification T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been associated with high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves, with zonal wave numbers 6 to 8 resulting from the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA). A fingerprint for the occurrence of QRA can be defined in terms of the zonally averaged surface temperature field. Examining state-of-the-art [Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)] climate model projections, we find that QRA events are likely to increase by similar to 50% this century under business-as-usual carbon emissions, but there is considerable variation among climate models. Some predict a near tripling of QRA events by the end of the century, while others predict a potential decrease. Models with amplified Arctic warming yield the most pronounced increase in QRA events. The projections are strongly dependent on assumptions regarding the nature of changes in radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosols over the next century. One implication of our findings is that a reduction in midlatitude aerosol loading could actually lead to Arctic de-amplification this century, ameliorating potential increases in persistent extreme weather events. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 994 KW - planetary wave resonance KW - northern KW - atmosphere KW - attribution KW - circulation Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446416 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 994 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Molnos, Sonja A1 - Mamdouh, Tarek A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Nocke, Thomas A1 - Weinkauf, Tino A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-75-2017 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 8 IS - 1 SP - 75 EP - 89 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - GEN A1 - Molnos, Sonja A1 - Mamdouh, Tarek A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Nocke, Thomas A1 - Weinkauf, Tino A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - A network-based detection scheme for the jet stream core T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The polar and subtropical jet streams are strong upper-level winds with a crucial influence on weather throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In particular, the polar jet is located between cold arctic air to the north and warmer subtropical air to the south. Strongly meandering states therefore often lead to extreme surface weather. Some algorithms exist which can detect the 2-D (latitude and longitude) jets' core around the hemisphere, but all of them use a minimal threshold to determine the subtropical and polar jet stream. This is particularly problematic for the polar jet stream, whose wind velocities can change rapidly from very weak to very high values and vice versa. We develop a network-based scheme using Dijkstra's shortest-path algorithm to detect the polar and subtropical jet stream core. This algorithm not only considers the commonly used wind strength for core detection but also takes wind direction and climatological latitudinal position into account. Furthermore, it distinguishes between polar and subtropical jet, and between separate and merged jet states. The parameter values of the detection scheme are optimized using simulated annealing and a skill function that accounts for the zonal-mean jet stream position (Rikus, 2015). After the successful optimization process, we apply our scheme to reanalysis data covering 1979-2015 and calculate seasonal-mean probabilistic maps and trends in wind strength and position of jet streams. We present longitudinally defined probability distributions of the positions for both jets for all on the Northern Hemisphere seasons. This shows that winter is characterized by two well-separated jets over Europe and Asia (ca. 20 degrees W to 140 degrees E). In contrast, summer normally has a single merged jet over the western hemisphere but can have both merged and separated jet states in the eastern hemisphere. With this algorithm it is possible to investigate the position of the jets' cores around the hemisphere and it is therefore very suitable to analyze jet stream patterns in observations and models, enabling more advanced model-validation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 625 KW - Southern-Hemisphere KW - variability KW - weather KW - driven KW - amplification KW - circulation KW - reanalysis KW - extremes KW - climate KW - summer Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-419099 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 625 SP - 75 EP - 89 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schneidenbach, Lars A1 - Schnor, Bettina A1 - Petri, Stefan T1 - Architecture and Implementation of the Socket Interface on Top of GAMMA Y1 - 2003 SN - 0-7695-2037-5 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Stadtherr, Lisa A1 - Coumou, Dim A1 - Petoukhov, Vladimir A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan T1 - Record Balkan floods of 2014 linked to planetary wave resonance JF - Science Advances N2 - In May 2014, the Balkans were hit by a Vb-type cyclone that brought disastrous flooding and severe damage to Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, and Croatia. Vb cyclones migrate from the Mediterranean, where they absorb warm and moist air, to the north, often causing flooding in central/eastern Europe. Extreme rainfall events are increasing on a global scale, and both thermodynamic and dynamical mechanisms play a role. Where thermodynamic aspects are generally well understood, there is large uncertainty associated with current and future changes in dynamics. We study the climatic and meteorological factors that influenced the catastrophic flooding in the Balkans, where we focus on large-scale circulation. We show that the Vb cyclone was unusually stationary, bringing extreme rainfall for several consecutive days, and that this situation was likely linked to a quasi-stationary circumglobal Rossby wave train. We provide evidence that this quasi-stationary wave was amplified by wave resonance. Statistical analysis of daily spring rainfall over the Balkan region reveals significant upward trends over 1950-2014, especially in the high quantiles relevant for flooding events. These changes cannot be explained by simple thermodynamic arguments, and we thus argue that dynamical processes likely played a role in increasing flood risks over the Balkans. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1501428 SN - 2375-2548 VL - 2 PB - American Assoc. for the Advancement of Science CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Eliseev, Alexey V. A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Flechsig, Michael A1 - Caesar, Levke A1 - Petoukhov, Vladimir A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - The dynamical core of the Aeolus 1.0 statistical-dynamical atmosphere model BT - validation and parameter optimization JF - Geoscientific model development : an interactive open access journal of the European Geosciences Union N2 - Here, we present novel equations for the large-scale zonal-mean wind as well as those for planetary waves. Together with synoptic parameterization (as presented by Coumou et al., 2011), these form the mathematical description of the dynamical core of Aeolus 1.0. The regions of high azonal wind velocities (planetary waves) are accurately captured for all validation experiments. The zonal-mean zonal wind and the integrated lower troposphere mass flux show good results in particular in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the model tends to produce too-weak zonal-mean zonal winds and a too-narrow Hadley circulation. We discuss possible reasons for these model biases as well as planned future model improvements and applications. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-665-2018 SN - 1991-959X SN - 1991-9603 VL - 11 IS - 2 SP - 665 EP - 679 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Lehmann, Jascha A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Regional Changes in the Mean Position and Variability of the Tropical Edge JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - Recent studies indicate that the tropical belt has been expanding during recent decades, which can significantly influence precipitation in subtropical climates. Often the location of the tropical border is identified using the Hadley cell edge (HCE) or the subtropical jet stream (STJ), but most studies concentrated on the zonal-mean state, thereby missing regional impacts. Here we detect longitudinal-resolved trends in STJ cores and HCEs over 1979-2016 in both hemispheres at a higher spatial and temporal resolution than previous studies. Besides pronounced regional trend differences in both sign and magnitude, we show that winter HCE and STJ variability increased in the Mediterranean region and decreased over the American and Asian continents. Rainfall variability in these regions changed likewise, and most of those changes can be explained by changes in HCE/STJ variability. This highlights the importance of understanding future tropical belt changes both regionally and in terms of variability. Plain Language Summary We applied a new network-based method to detect motion of the tropical climate border with longitudinal resolution. Depending on the longitudinal position, there are differences in both direction and magnitude of the border motion. In addition, we demonstrate that the rainfall variability is increasing in the Mediterranean region and decreasing over the American and Asian continents, which can be explained by the variability of the tropical belt location. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079911 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 45 IS - 21 SP - 12076 EP - 12084 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Totz, Sonja Juliana A1 - Petri, Stefan A1 - Lehmann, Jascha A1 - Peukert, Erik A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Exploring the sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation to different surface temperature forcing using a statistical-dynamical atmospheric model JF - Nonlinear processes in geophysics N2 - Climate and weather conditions in the mid-latitudes are strongly driven by the large-scale atmosphere circulation. Observational data indicate that important components of the large-scale circulation have changed in recent decades, including the strength and the width of the Hadley cell, jets, storm tracks and planetary waves. Here, we use a new statistical-dynamical atmosphere model (SDAM) to test the individual sensitivities of the large-scale atmospheric circulation to changes in the zonal temperature gradient, meridional temperature gradient and global-mean temperature. We analyze the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, jet streams, storm tracks and planetary waves by systematically altering the zonal temperature asymmetry, the meridional temperature gradient and the global-mean temperature. Our results show that the strength of the Hadley cell, storm tracks and jet streams depend, in terms of relative changes, almost linearly on both the global-mean temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, whereas the zonal temperature asymmetry has little or no influence. The magnitude of planetary waves is affected by all three temperature components, as expected from theoretical dynamical considerations. The width of the Hadley cell behaves nonlinearly with respect to all three temperature components in the SDAM. Moreover, some of these observed large-scale atmospheric changes are expected from dynamical equations and are therefore an important part of model validation. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-26-1-2019 SN - 1023-5809 SN - 1607-7946 VL - 26 IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 12 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER -