TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wolf, Sabina
A1  - Pham, My
A1  - Matthews, Nathanial
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
T1  - Understanding the implementation gap
BT  - policy-makers’ perceptions of ecosystem-based adaptation in Central Vietnam
JF  - Climate & development
N2  - In recent years, nature-based solutions are receiving increasing attention in the field of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation as inclusive, no regret approaches. Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) can mitigate the impacts of climate change, build resilience and tackle environmental degradation thereby supporting the targets set by the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework. Despite these benefits, EbA is still rarely implemented in practice. To better understand the barriers to implementation, this research examines policy-makers' perceptions of EbA, using an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory as an analytical framework. Through semi-structured interviews with policy-makers at regional and provincial level in Central Vietnam, it was found that EbA is generally considered a promising response option, mainly due to its multiple ecosystem-service benefits. The demand for EbA measures was largely driven by the perceived consequences of natural hazards and climate change. Insufficient perceived response efficacy and time-lags in effectiveness for disaster risk reduction were identified as key impediments for implementation. Pilot projects and capacity building on EbA are important means to overcome these perceptual barriers. This paper contributes to bridging the knowledge-gap on political decision-making regarding EbA and can, thereby, promote its mainstreaming into policy plans.
KW  - climate change
KW  - ecosystem-based adaptation
KW  - risk perception
KW  - protection
KW  - motivation theory
KW  - decision making
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1724068
SN  - 1756-5529
SN  - 1756-5537
VL  - 13
IS  - 1
SP  - 81
EP  - 94
PB  - Taylor & Francis LTD
CY  - Abingdon
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Botzen, W. J. Wouter
A1  - Laudan, Jonas
A1  - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Insights into flood-coping appraisals of protection motivation theory
BT  - Empirical evidence from Germany and France
JF  - Risk analysis
N2  - Protection motivation theory (PMT) has become a popular theory to explain the risk-reducing behavior of residents against natural hazards. PMT captures the two main cognitive processes that individuals undergo when faced with a threat, namely, threat appraisal and coping appraisal. The latter describes the evaluation of possible response measures that may reduce or avert the perceived threat. Although the coping appraisal component of PMT was found to be a better predictor of protective intentions and behavior, little is known about the factors that influence individuals’ coping appraisals of natural hazards. More insight into flood-coping appraisals of PMT, therefore, are needed to better understand the decision-making process of individuals and to develop effective risk communication strategies. This study presents the results of two surveys among more than 1,600 flood-prone households in Germany and France. Five hypotheses were tested using multivariate statistics regarding factors related to flood-coping appraisals, which were derived from the PMT framework, related literature, and the literature on social vulnerability. We found that socioeconomic characteristics alone are not sufficient to explain flood-coping appraisals. Particularly, observational learning from the social environment, such as friends and neighbors, is positively related to flood-coping appraisals. This suggests that social norms and networks play an important role in flood-preparedness decisions. Providing risk and coping information can also have a positive effect. Given the strong positive influence of the social environment on flood-coping appraisals, future research should investigate how risk communication can be enhanced by making use of the observed social norms and network effects.
KW  - Coping appraisal
KW  - floods
KW  - protection motivation theory (PMT)
KW  - risk communication
KW  - social vulnerability
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12938
SN  - 0272-4332
SN  - 1539-6924
VL  - 38
IS  - 6
SP  - 1239
EP  - 1257
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
A1  - Vorogushyn, Sergiy
A1  - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
A1  - Apel, Heiko
A1  - Aronica, Giuseppe T.
A1  - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
A1  - Bouwer, Laurens M.
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Caloiero, Tommaso
A1  - Chinh, Do T.
A1  - Cortes, Maria
A1  - Gain, Animesh K.
A1  - Giampa, Vincenzo
A1  - Kuhlicke, Christian
A1  - Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.
A1  - Llasat, Maria Carmen
A1  - Mard, Johanna
A1  - Matczak, Piotr
A1  - Mazzoleni, Maurizio
A1  - Molinari, Daniela
A1  - Dung, Nguyen V.
A1  - Petrucci, Olga
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Slager, Kymo
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Ward, Philip J.
A1  - Merz, Bruno
T1  - Adaptation to flood risk
BT  - Results of international paired flood event studies
JF  - Earth's Future
N2  - As flood impacts are increasing in large parts of the world, understanding the primary drivers of changes in risk is essential for effective adaptation. To gain more knowledge on the basis of empirical case studies, we analyze eight paired floods, that is, consecutive flood events that occurred in the same region, with the second flood causing significantly lower damage. These success stories of risk reduction were selected across different socioeconomic and hydro-climatic contexts. The potential of societies to adapt is uncovered by describing triggered societal changes, as well as formal measures and spontaneous processes that reduced flood risk. This novel approach has the potential to build the basis for an international data collection and analysis effort to better understand and attribute changes in risk due to hydrological extremes in the framework of the IAHSs Panta Rhei initiative. Across all case studies, we find that lower damage caused by the second event was mainly due to significant reductions in vulnerability, for example, via raised risk awareness, preparedness, and improvements of organizational emergency management. Thus, vulnerability reduction plays an essential role for successful adaptation. Our work shows that there is a high potential to adapt, but there remains the challenge to stimulate measures that reduce vulnerability and risk in periods in which extreme events do not occur.
KW  - flooding
KW  - vulnerability
KW  - global environmental change
KW  - adaptation
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017EF000606
SN  - 2328-4277
VL  - 5
SP  - 953
EP  - 965
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Di Baldassarre, Giuliano
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Vorogushyn, Sergiy
A1  - Aerts, Jeroen
A1  - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten
A1  - Barendrecht, Marlies
A1  - Bates, Paul
A1  - Borga, Marco
A1  - Botzen, Wouter
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - De Marchi, Bruna
A1  - Llasat, Carmen Maria
A1  - Mazzoleni, Maurizio
A1  - Molinari, Daniela
A1  - Mondino, Elena
A1  - Mard, Johanna
A1  - Petrucci, Olga
A1  - Scolobig, Anna
A1  - Viglione, Alberto
A1  - Ward, Philip J.
T1  - Hess Opinions: An interdisciplinary research agenda to explore the unintended consequences of structural flood protection
JF  - Hydrology and earth system sciences : HESS
N2  - One common approach to cope with floods is the implementation of structural flood protection measures, such as levees or flood-control reservoirs, which substantially reduce the probability of flooding at the time of implementation. Numerous scholars have problematized this approach. They have shown that increasing the levels of flood protection can attract more settlements and high-value assets in the areas protected by the new measures. Other studies have explored how structural measures can generate a sense of complacency, which can act to reduce preparedness. These paradoxical risk changes have been described as "levee effect", "safe development paradox" or "safety dilemma". In this commentary, we briefly review this phenomenon by critically analysing the intended benefits and unintended effects of structural flood protection, and then we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda to uncover these paradoxical dynamics of risk.
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5629-2018
SN  - 1027-5606
SN  - 1607-7938
VL  - 22
IS  - 11
SP  - 5629
EP  - 5637
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Riese, Miriam
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Müggenburg, Eva
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
T1  - Synergies and barriers of the possible integration of heavy rainfall for the implementation of the European Floods Directive
JF  - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung
N2  - The heavy rainfall events in recent years have caused great damage, which has increased the public awareness of the topic of heavy rainfall. For this reason, this article discusses how a systematic integration of heavy rainfall within the framework of the European Floods Directive would be possible and reasonable. For this purpose, a matrix covering possible synergies and barriers was created for all steps of the directive, which were then examined in 15 semi-structured interviews with representatives from specialized administration, the private sector and academia. Although there are some synergies, the additional effort required, especially regarding the identification of the risk areas and the higher level of detail required for risk modeling, would be so high that the European Floods Directive cannot be deemed to be an appropriate framework for heavy rainfall risk management. Nevertheless, there is a need for action, e.g. in the field of self-protection, improved risk communication to the population, combined with increased public and interagency cooperation.
T2  - Synergien und Hemmnisse einer möglichen Integration von Starkregen in die Bearbeitung der europäischen Hochwasserrisikomanagementrichtlinie
KW  - Flood
KW  - heavy rainfall
KW  - EU Floods Directive
KW  - Federal Water Act
KW  - Hochwasser
KW  - Starkregen
KW  - Hochwasserrisikomanagementrichtlinie
KW  - Wasserhaushaltsgesetz
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2019.4_1
SN  - 1439-1783
VL  - 63
IS  - 4
SP  - 193
EP  - 202
PB  - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde
CY  - Koblenz
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hudson, Paul
A1  - Pham, My
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
T1  - An evaluation and monetary assessment of the impact of flooding on subjective well-being across genders in Vietnam
JF  - Climate & development
N2  - The intangible impacts of floods on welfare are not well investigated, even though they are important aspects of welfare. Moreover, flooding has gender based impacts on welfare. These differing impacts create a gender based flood risk resilience gap. We study the intangible impacts of flood risk on the subjective well-being of residents in central Vietnam. The measurement of intangible impacts through subjective well-being is a growing field within flood risk research. We find an initial drop in welfare through subjective well-being across genders when a flood is experienced. Male respondents tended to recover their welfare losses by around 80% within 5 years while female respondents were associated with a welfare recovery of around 70%. A monetization of the impacts floods have on an individual’s subjective well-being shows that for the average female respondent, between 41% to 86% of annual income would be required to compensate subjective well-being losses after 5 years of experiencing a flood. The corresponding value for males is 30% to 57% of annual income. This shows that the intangible impacts of flood risk are important (across genders) and need to be integrated into flood (or climate) risk assessments to develop more socially appropriate risk management strategies.
KW  - Subjective well-being
KW  - flood risk
KW  - welfare
KW  - gender
KW  - resilience
KW  - intangible impacts
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2019.1579698
SN  - 1756-5529
SN  - 1756-5537
VL  - 11
IS  - 7
SP  - 623
EP  - 637
PB  - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
CY  - Abingdon
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Penning-Rowsell, E. C.
A1  - Botzen, W. J. Wouter
A1  - de Moel, H.
A1  - Klijn, F.
T1  - Explaining differences in flood management approaches in Europe and in the USA - a comparative analysis
JF  - Journal of flood risk management
N2  - Flood risk management in Europe and worldwide is not static but constantly in a state of flux. There has been a trend towards more integrated flood risk management in many countries. However, the initial situation and the pace and direction of change is very different in the various countries. In this paper, we will present a conceptual framework that seeks to explain why countries opt for different flood risk management portfolios. The developed framework utilises insights from a range of policy science concepts in an integrated way and considers, among others, factors such as geographical characteristics, the experience with flood disasters, as well as human behavioural aspects.
KW  - Flood risk management
KW  - impact
KW  - policy
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12151
SN  - 1753-318X
VL  - 10
SP  - 436
EP  - 445
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.
A1  - de Moel, Hans
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
T1  - Preface: Flood-risk analysis and integrated management
T2  - Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1005-2016
SN  - 1561-8633
VL  - 16
SP  - 1005
EP  - 1010
PB  - Copernicus
CY  - Göttingen
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kellermann, Patric
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Kundela, Guenther
A1  - Dosio, Alessandro
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing ClimateAssessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria
JF  - Climate : open access journal
N2  - Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite.
KW  - climate change
KW  - critical meteorological condition
KW  - frequency analysis
KW  - natural hazard management
KW  - railway transportation
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020025
SN  - 2225-1154
VL  - 4
SP  - 914
EP  - 931
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Rözer, Viktor
A1  - Müller, Meike
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Kienzler, Sarah
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Pech, Ina
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Buchholz, Oliver
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
T1  - Coping with Pluvial Floods by Private Households
JF  - Water
N2  - Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.
KW  - pluvial floods
KW  - surface water flooding
KW  - emergency response
KW  - early warning
KW  - preparedness
KW  - damage
KW  - mitigation
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w8070304
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 8
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Do Thi Chinh, 
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Nguyen Viet Dung, 
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
T1  - The 2011 flood event in the Mekong Delta: preparedness, response, damage and recovery of private households and small businesses
JF  - Disasters : the journal of disaster studies, policy and management
N2  - Floods frequently cause substantial economic and human losses, particularly in developing countries. For the development of sound flood risk management schemes that reduce flood consequences, detailed insights into the different components of the flood risk management cycle, such as preparedness, response, flood impact analyses and recovery, are needed. However, such detailed insights are often lacking: commonly, only (aggregated) data on direct flood damage are available. Other damage categories such as losses owing to the disruption of production processes are usually not considered, resulting in incomplete risk assessments and possibly inappropriate recommendations for risk management. In this paper, data from 858 face-to-face interviews among flood-prone households and small businesses in Can Tho city in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta are presented to gain better insights into the damage caused by the 2011 flood event and its management by households and businesses.
KW  - Can Tho
KW  - floods
KW  - flood damage
KW  - flood loss
KW  - flood risk management
KW  - Mekong Delta
KW  - Vietnam
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/disa.12171
SN  - 0361-3666
SN  - 1467-7717
VL  - 40
SP  - 753
EP  - 778
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Kellermann, Patric
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Kundela, Günther
A1  - Dosio, Alessandro
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Frequency analysis of critical meteorological conditions in a changing climate
BT  - assessing future implications for railway transportation in Austria
N2  - Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 358 
KW  - climate change
KW  - critical meteorological condition
KW  - frequency analysis
KW  - natural hazard management
KW  - railway transportation
Y1  - 2017
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400505
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Rözer, Viktor
A1  - Müller, Meike
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Kienzler, Sarah
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
A1  - Pech, Ina
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Buchholz, Oliver
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
T1  - Coping with pluvial floods by private households
N2  - Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 355 
KW  - pluvial floods
KW  - surface water flooding
KW  - emergency response
KW  - early warning
KW  - preparedness
KW  - damage
KW  - mitigation
Y1  - 2017
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400465
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Van Vliet, Mathijs
A1  - De Moel, Hans
T1  - A review of damage-reducing measures to manage fluvial flood risks in a changing climate
JF  - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change
N2  - Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepares for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning and private damage reduction, e.g. via building precautionary measures, and disaster response. However, knowledge about damage-reducing measures is scarce and often fragmented since based on case studies. For instance, it is believed that private precautionary measures, like shielding with water shutters or building fortification, are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels. However, some of these measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during the extreme flood event in 2002 in Germany. This review analyses potentials of land-use planning and private flood precautionary measures as components of adaptation strategies for global change. Focus is on their implementation, their damage-reducing effects and their potential contribution to address projected changes in flood risk, particularly in developed countries.
KW  - Climate adaptation
KW  - Land-use planning
KW  - Damage reduction
KW  - Precaution
KW  - Risk zoning
KW  - Flood
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9629-5
SN  - 1381-2386
SN  - 1573-1596
VL  - 20
IS  - 6
SP  - 967
EP  - 989
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - INPR
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - van den Bergh, Jeroen C. J. M.
A1  - Bouwer, Laurens M.
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Ciavola, Paolo
A1  - Green, Colin
A1  - Hallegatte, Stephane
A1  - Logar, Ivana
A1  - Meyer, Volker
A1  - Schwarze, Reimund
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - Costing natural hazards
T2  - Nature climate change
Y1  - 2014
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 4
IS  - 5
SP  - 303
EP  - 306
PB  - Nature Publ. Group
CY  - London
ER  -