TY - THES A1 - Mangelsdorf, Stefan T1 - Die Transformation des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Berlin/Brandenburg unter Berücksichtigung der Exporte : eine empirische Analyse mit amtlichen Mikrodaten T1 - The transition of the manufacturing industry in Berlin/Brandenburg paying particular consideration to exports : an empirical analyze with official micro data N2 - 20 Jahre sind mittlerweile vergangen seit die friedliche Protestbewegung zur Abdankung des alten Regimes der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik führte. Im darauf folgenden Jahre kam es zur Wiedervereinigung der beiden deutschen Staaten. Der anschließende Transformationsprozess ist aufgrund der besonderen Umstände in Deutschland einzigartig unter den ehemaligen sozialistischen Staaten Mittel- und Osteuropas. Der Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit liegt in der Transformation des Verarbeitenden Gewerbes in den Bundesländern Berlin und Brandenburg. Mit der Wiedervereinigung der beiden deutschen Staaten veränderte sich die Situation für die Betriebe im ehemals sozialistischen Teil auf dramatische Weise. Die Auswirkungen werden anhand von Makro- und Mikrodaten analysiert. Untersuchungsgegenstände sind verschiedene ökonomische Indikatoren, wie Zahl von Betrieben und Arbeitsplätzen, Strukturen (nach Größe und Branchen), Umsätze (im In- und Ausland) sowie Investitionen. Der Vergleich von Brandenburg und Ostberlin mit Westberlin bietet dabei die Möglichkeit, Aufschluss über den erreichten Stand des Transformationsprozesses zu erhalten. Die Datenbasis dieser Arbeit besteht neben Angaben aus der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung der Länder aus verschiedenen betriebsbasierten Erhebungen der amtlichen Statistik. Der Beobachtungszeitraum umfasst dabei die Jahre 1991 bis 2005. Zur Analyse von Betriebs- und Beschäftigungszahlen und ihrer Dynamik steht sogar eine Totalerhebung für die Jahre 1991 bis 2000 zur Verfügung. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt dieser Arbeit ist die Rolle der Exporte für die betriebliche Entwicklung. Die deutsche Wirtschaftspolitik fördert Unternehmen bei ihrem Schritt auf ausländische Märkte, da man sich von Exporten eine Wachstumsstimulation erhofft. Damit eine solche Förderung auch langfristige positive Effekte entfalten kann, muss einerseits der Export positiven Einfluss auf das Produktivitätswachstum des betreffenden Betriebes haben, und andererseits muss das Exportverhalten eine gewisse Persistenz aufweisen. Beide Bedingungen werden innerhalb der Arbeit detailliert untersucht. N2 - 20 years have elapsed since the peaceful protest movement led to the resignation of the old regime in the German Democratic Republic. In the following year both German states reunited. Due to the special situation in Germany the subsequent transformation process is unique within the former socialistic countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The special focus of this thesis is the transition of the manufacturing industry in the federal states of Berlin and Brandenburg. After reunification of the two German states the situation of plants in the former socialistic part changed dramatically. The results are analyzed using, both, macro and micro data. The evolution of some economic indicators, like number of plants and jobs, structure (size and sector), sales (domestic and foreign), and investments, is analyzed. The comparison of Brandenburg and East Berlin with West Berlin provides information about the current state in the transition process. The data used in this study is drawn from two sources: firstly, aggregated data from the national accounts of the federal states, and secondly, micro data from plant based surveys conducted by the official statistics. The observation period covers the years between 1991 and 2005. For the analysis of the number of plants and jobs, and the dynamic in their evolution there could be used a full survey for the years from 1991 to 2000. The thesis pays special attention to the role of exports for the development of plants. German economic policy promotes firms in their step on foreign markets, because exports are expected to stimulate the economic growth. In order that such a promotion has a positive effect in the long run, exports have to have a positive effect on productivity growth, and additionally export behavior has to be persistent over time. Both conditions are empirically examined within this thesis. KW - Transformation KW - Verarbeitendes Gewerbe KW - Exporte KW - Produktivität KW - transition KW - manufacturing KW - exports KW - productivity Y1 - 2009 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-44414 SN - 978-3-86956-068-7 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rolinski, Susanne A1 - Rammig, Anja A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - von Bloh, Werner A1 - van Oijen, M. A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten T1 - A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes BT - The ecosystem perspective T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch naturwissenschaftliche Reihe (487) N2 - Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 487 KW - global vegetation model KW - climate extremes KW - fire emissions KW - drought KW - forest KW - productivity KW - reduction KW - events KW - assimilation KW - uncertainty Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407999 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 487 SP - 1813 EP - 1831 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Pradhan, Prajal A1 - Fischer, Günther A1 - Velthuizen, Harrij van A1 - Reusser, Dominik Edwin A1 - Kropp, Jürgen T1 - Closing yield gaps BT - how sustainable can we be? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Global food production needs to be increased by 60-110% between 2005 and 2050 to meet growing food and feed demand. Intensification and/or expansion of agriculture are the two main options available to meet the growing crop demands. Land conversion to expand cultivated land increases GHG emissions and impacts biodiversity and ecosystem services. Closing yield gaps to attain potential yields may be a viable option to increase the global crop production. Traditional methods of agricultural intensification often have negative externalities. Therefore, there is a need to explore location-specific methods of sustainable agricultural intensification. We identified regions where the achievement of potential crop calorie production on currently cultivated land will meet the present and future food demand based on scenario analyses considering population growth and changes in dietary habits. By closing yield gaps in the current irrigated and rain-fed cultivated land, about 24% and 80% more crop calories can respectively be produced compared to 2000. Most countries will reach food self-sufficiency or improve their current food self-sufficiency levels if potential crop production levels are achieved. As a novel approach, we defined specific input and agricultural management strategies required to achieve the potential production by overcoming biophysical and socioeconomic constraints causing yield gaps. The management strategies include: fertilizers, pesticides, advanced soil management, land improvement, management strategies coping with weather induced yield variability, and improving market accessibility. Finally, we estimated the required fertilizers (N, P2O5, and K2O) to attain the potential yields. Globally, N-fertilizer application needs to increase by 45-73%, P2O5-fertilizer by 22-46%, and K2O-fertilizer by 2-3 times compared to the year 2010 to attain potential crop production. The sustainability of such agricultural intensification largely depends on the way management strategies for closing yield gaps are chosen and implemented. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 491 KW - climate-change KW - management KW - intensification KW - productivity KW - agriculture Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-408105 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 491 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Elliott, J. A1 - Heinke, J. A1 - Arneth, A. A1 - Bierkens, M. F. P. A1 - Ciais, Philippe A1 - Clark, D. B. A1 - Deryng, D. A1 - Doell, P. A1 - Falloon, P. A1 - Fekete, B. A1 - Folberth, Christian A1 - Friend, A. D. A1 - Gellhorn, C. A1 - Gosling, S. N. A1 - Haddeland, I. A1 - Khabarov, N. A1 - Lomas, M. A1 - Masaki, Y. A1 - Nishina, K. A1 - Neumann, K. A1 - Oki, T. A1 - Pavlick, R. A1 - Ruane, A. C. A1 - Schmid, E. A1 - Schmitz, C. A1 - Stacke, T. A1 - Stehfest, E. A1 - Tang, Q. A1 - Wisser, D. A1 - Huber, V. A1 - Piontek, Franziska A1 - Warszawski, L. A1 - Schewe, Jacob A1 - Lotze-Campen, Hermann A1 - Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim T1 - A framework for the cross-sectoral integration of multi-model impact projections BT - land use decisions under climate impacts uncertainties T2 - Earth system dynamics N2 - Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impact-model setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop-and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 457 KW - global food demand KW - water availability KW - elevated CO2 KW - future KW - carbon KW - system KW - productivity KW - agriculture KW - emissions KW - scarcity Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-407968 ER - TY - THES A1 - Schönefeld, Romina T1 - Produktivität und Akzeptanz von Wortbildungsmustern bei Neologismen der 2000er Jahre N2 - Das Ziel der vorliegenden Masterarbeit ist es, die Interaktion zwischen der Produktivität und der Akzeptanz von Wortbildungsmustern sowie ihre mögliche Lexikalisierung zu zeigen. Es soll geklärt werden, wie die Produktivität von Wortbildungsmustern die Akzeptanz von Neologismen beeinflusst und inwiefern die Produktivität der gebildeten Neuwörter zu ihrer Lexikalisierung beiträgt. Dazu wurden in den 2000er Jahren im Deutschen aufgekommene Neologismen der Bereiche Bildung & Gesellschaft, Politik, Technik sowie Wirtschaft untersucht. Es wurde angenommen, dass ein neu gebildetes Wort durch die Sprecher eher akzeptiert wird, wenn dieses modellgerecht gebildet wurde. Dies befördert wiederum die Lexikalisierung, d. h. die Aufnahme des Neologismus in den Allgemeinwortschatz. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass die betrachteten Neologismen vorwiegend nach produktiven und regulären Mustern gebildet wurden. Die Ergebnisse konnten die Annahmen folglich bestätigen: Neue Wortbildungen bzw. deren Etablierung und mögliche Lexikalisierung sowie ihre Akzeptanz hängen von der Produktivität ihrer Struktur ab. Weiterführende Forschung könnte sich mit Aspekten des Verstehensaufwands sowie mit Verarbeitungsstrategien bei der Lexikalisierung von Neologismen beschäftigen. N2 - The current paper is supposed to reveal the interaction between productivity and acceptability of word formation patterns as well as the lexicalization of them. It shall be clarified how the productivity affects the acceptability of neologisms and to what extent the productivity of the newly formed words contributes to their lexicalization. Therefore, neologisms which are emerged in the 2000s in German were explored, selected from the fields education & society (Bildung & Gesellschaft), politics (Politik), technology (Technik) and economy (Wirtschaft). The main assumption is that a newly formed word is more likely to be accepted if it would be formed modell-compliant. This in turn promotes lexicalization, i. e. this promotes the neologism‘s inclusion to the lexicon. It could be shown that the considered neologisms were mainly formed by productive and regular patterns. The results therefore confirm the assumptions: new word forms respectively their establishment and possible lexicalization as well as their acceptability depend on the productivity of their structure. Further research could consider aspects of cognitive effort or strategies of processing in lexicalization of neologisms. KW - Neologismus KW - Wortbildung KW - Produktivität KW - Akzeptanz KW - Lexikalisierung KW - neologism KW - word formation KW - productivity KW - acceptability KW - lexicalization Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-436853 ER -