TY - JOUR A1 - Wutzler, Bianca A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany JF - Frontiers in Water N2 - Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication. KW - risk management KW - climate change adaptation KW - floods KW - disaster risk reduction KW - Germany KW - precaution KW - emergency management Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.932061 SN - 2624-9375 PB - Frontiers Media SA CY - Lausanne, Schweiz ER - TY - GEN A1 - Wutzler, Bianca A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1304 KW - risk management KW - climate change adaptation KW - floods KW - disaster risk reduction KW - Germany KW - precaution KW - emergency management Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-577350 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1304 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Webber, Heidi A1 - Lischeid, Gunnar A1 - Sommer, Michael A1 - Finger, Robert A1 - Nendel, Claas A1 - Gaiser, Thomas A1 - Ewert, Frank T1 - No perfect storm for crop yield failure in Germany JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Large-scale crop yield failures are increasingly associated with food price spikes and food insecurity and are a large source of income risk for farmers. While the evidence linking extreme weather to yield failures is clear, consensus on the broader set of weather drivers and conditions responsible for recent yield failures is lacking. We investigate this for the case of four major crops in Germany over the past 20 years using a combination of machine learning and process-based modelling. Our results confirm that years associated with widespread yield failures across crops were generally associated with severe drought, such as in 2018 and to a lesser extent 2003. However, for years with more localized yield failures and large differences in spatial patterns of yield failures between crops, no single driver or combination of drivers was identified. Relatively large residuals of unexplained variation likely indicate the importance of non-weather related factors, such as management (pest, weed and nutrient management and possible interactions with weather) explaining yield failures. Models to inform adaptation planning at farm, market or policy levels are here suggested to require consideration of cumulative resource capture and use, as well as effects of extreme events, the latter largely missing in process-based models. However, increasingly novel combinations of weather events under climate change may limit the extent to which data driven methods can replace process-based models in risk assessments. KW - crop yield failure KW - extreme events KW - support vector machine KW - process-based crop model KW - Germany Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba2a4 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 15 IS - 10 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - THES A1 - Uhlemann, Steffi T1 - Understanding trans-basin floods in Germany : data, information and knowledge T1 - Flussgebietsübergreifende Hochwasserereignisse in Deutschland : Daten, Informationen und Wissen. N2 - Large Central European flood events of the past have demonstrated that flooding can affect several river basins at the same time leading to catastrophic economic and humanitarian losses that can stretch emergency resources beyond planned levels of service. For Germany, the spatial coherence of flooding, the contributing processes and the role of trans-basin floods for a national risk assessment is largely unknown and analysis is limited by a lack of systematic data, information and knowledge on past events. This study investigates the frequency and intensity of trans-basin flood events in Germany. It evaluates the data and information basis on which knowledge about trans-basin floods can be generated in order to improve any future flood risk assessment. In particu-lar, the study assesses whether flood documentations and related reports can provide a valuable data source for understanding trans-basin floods. An adaptive algorithm was developed that systematically captures trans-basin floods using series of mean daily discharge at a large number of sites of even time series length (1952-2002). It identifies the simultaneous occurrence of flood peaks based on the exceedance of an initial threshold of a 10 year flood at one location and consecutively pools all causally related, spatially and temporally lagged peak recordings at the other locations. A weighted cumulative index was developed that accounts for the spatial extent and the individual flood magnitudes within an event and allows quantifying the overall event severity. The parameters of the method were tested in a sensitivity analysis. An intensive study on sources and ways of information dissemination of flood-relevant publications in Germany was conducted. Based on the method of systematic reviews a strategic search approach was developed to identify relevant documentations for each of the 40 strongest trans-basin flood events. A novel framework for assessing the quality of event specific flood reports from a user’s perspective was developed and validated by independent peers. The framework was designed to be generally applicable for any natural hazard type and assesses the quality of a document addressing accessibility as well as representational, contextual, and intrinsic dimensions of quality. The analysis of time-series of mean daily discharge resulted in the identification of 80 trans-basin flood events within the period 1952-2002 in Germany. The set is dominated by events that were recorded in the hydrological winter (64%); 36% occurred during the summer months. The occurrence of floods is characterised by a distinct clustering in time. Dividing the study period into two sub-periods, we find an increase in the percentage of winter events from 58% in the first to 70.5% in the second sub-period. Accordingly, we find a significant increase in the number of extreme trans-basin floods in the second sub-period. A large body of 186 flood relevant documentations was identified. For 87.5% of the 40 strongest trans-basin floods in Germany at least one report has been found and for the most severe floods a substantial amount of documentation could be obtained. 80% of the material can be considered grey literature (i.e. literature not controlled by commercial publishers). The results of the quality assessment show that the majority of flood event specific reports are of a good quality, i.e. they are well enough drafted, largely accurate and objective, and contain a substantial amount of information on the sources, pathways and receptors/consequences of the floods. The inclusion of this information in the process of knowledge building for flood risk assessment is recommended. Both the results as well as the data produced in this study are openly accessible and can be used for further research. The results of this study contribute to an improved spatial risk assessment in Germany. The identified set of trans-basin floods provides the basis for an assessment of the chance that flooding occurs simultaneously at a number of sites. The information obtained from flood event documentation can usefully supplement the analysis of the processes that govern flood risk. N2 - Abschätzungen zum Hochwasserrisiko beschränken sich zumeist auf die Analyse innerhalb eines Einzugsgebietes bzw. eines bestimmten Ortes. Die Zusammenhänge in größeren Regionen und vor allem Korrelationen zwischen verschiedenen Einzugsgebieten werden nur selten betrachtet. Solche einzugsgebietsübergreifenden Analysen sind jedoch sowohl für die Versicherungswirtschaft, den Katastrophenschutz sowie für großräumige strategische Hochwasserplanungen notwendig. Allerdings stehen nur für eine geringe Auswahl historischer Ereignisse Daten zur Verfügung und systematische Ansätze zu ihrer Erfassung wurden für Deutschland bisher nicht entwickelt. Die vorliegende Studie untersucht zum ersten die Häufigkeit und Intensität von flussgebietsübergreifenden Hochwasserereignissen in Deutschland anhand von gemessenen Abflüssen an einer Vielzahl von Stationen. Es können insgesamt 80 Hochwasserereignisse in Deutschland im Zeitraum von 1952-2002 nachgewiesen werden. Davon treten die meisten Ereignissen im hydrologischen Winterhalbjahr auf (64%). Wir können nachweisen, dass die Häufigkeit des Auftretens in verschiedenen Perioden unterschiedlich ist, und dass im Untersuchungszeitraum eine signifikante Zunahme von Winterereignissen und damit vor allem von sehr schweren flussgebietsübergreifenden Hochwasserereignissen zu verzeichnen ist. Die Studie hatte des Weiteren zum Ziel, die verfügbare Daten- und Informationsgrundlage zur Hochwasseranalyse zu erkunden. Im speziellen wird untersucht, inwieweit Hochwasserereignisdokumentationen und verwandte Berichte als eine weitere Datenquelle für ein verbessertes Prozessverständnis genutzt werden können. Im Rahmen einer systematischen Suche konnten für die 40 größten Hochwasserereignisse in Deutschland 186 relevante Berichte identifiziert werden. 80% des Materials kann als Grauliteratur eingestuft werden, d.h. als Veröffentlichungen welche nicht durch kommerzielle Verleger publiziert wird. Die sich daraus ergebende Frage nach der Qualität der Dokumente und ihres Informationsgehaltes wurde durch die Entwicklung und Anwendung eines Qualitätsbewertungsschemas beantwortet. Die Ergebnisse der Qualitätsbewertung zeigen, dass die Mehrheit der ereignisspezifischen Hochwasserberichte von guter Qualität ist, d.h. die Berichte sind in ausreichender Qualität verfasst, größtenteils korrekt und objektiv und beinhalten eine substantielle Menge an Informationen zu den Ursachen, Verläufen, betroffenen Objekten und Schäden eines Ereignisses. Es wird empfohlen diese Informationen in die Wissenssynthese für die Hochwasserrisikobewertung einfließen zu lassen. Sowohl Ergebnisse als auch Daten dieser Studie sind so publiziert, dass sie öffentlich zugänglich sind und für weitere Forschungsfragen genutzt werden können. KW - Hochwasser KW - Deutschland KW - Grauliteratur KW - Ereignisdokumentation KW - Qualitätsbewertung KW - floods KW - Germany KW - grey literature KW - event documentation KW - quality assessment framework Y1 - 2013 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-68868 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models JF - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences N2 - Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data. KW - damage KW - insurance KW - Germany KW - transferability KW - preparedness KW - recovery Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-21-1599-2021 SN - 2195-9269 VL - 21 SP - 1599 EP - 1614 PB - European Geophysical Society CY - Katlenburg-Lindau ER - TY - GEN A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1148 KW - damage KW - insurance KW - Germany KW - transferability KW - preparedness KW - recovery Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517743 SN - 1866-8372 SP - 1599 EP - 1614 ER - TY - THES A1 - Petrow, Theresia T1 - Floods in Germany : analyses of trends, seasonality and circulation patterns T1 - Hochwasser in Deutschland : Untersuchungen zu Trends, Saisonalität und Großwetterlagen N2 - Flood hazard estimations are conducted with a variety of methods. These include flood frequency analysis (FFA), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, probable maximum discharges as well as climate scenarios. However, most of these methods assume stationarity of the used time series, i.e., the series must not exhibit trends. Against the background of climate change and proven significant trends in atmospheric circulation patterns, it is questionable whether these changes are also reflected in the discharge data. The aim of this PhD thesis is therefore to clarify, in a spatially-explicit manner, whether the available discharge data derived from selected German catchments exhibit trends. Concerning the flood hazard, the suitability of the currently used stationary FFA approaches is evaluated for the discharge data. Moreover, dynamics in atmospheric circulation patterns are studied and the link between trends in these patterns and discharges is investigated. To tackle this research topic, a number of different analyses are conducted. The first part of the PhD thesis comprises the study and trend test of 145 discharge series from catchments, which cover most of Germany for the period 1951–2002. The seasonality and trend pattern of eight flood indicators, such as maximum series and peak-over-threshold series, are analyzed in a spatially-explicit manner. Analyses are performed on different spatial scales: at the local scale, through gauge-specific analyses, and on the catchment-wide and basin scales. Besides the analysis of discharge series, data on atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) are an important source of information, upon which conclusions about the flood hazard can be drawn. The analyses of these circulation patterns (after Hess und Brezowsky) and the study of the link to peak discharges form the second part of the thesis. For this, daily data on the dominant CP across Europe are studied; these are represented by different indicators, which are tested for trend. Moreover, analyses are performed to extract flood triggering circulation patterns and to estimate the flood potential of CPs. Correlations between discharge series and CP indicators are calculated to assess a possible link between them. For this research topic, data from 122 meso-scale catchments in the period 1951–2002 are used. In a third part, the Mulde catchment, a mesoscale sub-catchment of the Elbe basin, is studied in more detail. Fifteen discharge series of different lengths in the period 1910–2002 are available for the seasonally differentiated analysis of the flood potential of CPs and flood influencing landscape parameters. For trend tests of discharge and CP data, different methods are used. The Mann-Kendall test is applied with a significance level of 10%, ensuring statistically sound results. Besides the test of the entire series for trend, multiple time-varying trend tests are performed with the help of a resampling approach in order to better differentiate short-term fluctuations from long-lasting trends. Calculations of the field significance complement the flood hazard assessment for the studied regions. The present thesis shows that the flood hazard is indeed significantly increasing for selected regions in Germany during the winter season. Especially affected are the middle mountain ranges in Central Germany. This increase of the flood hazard is attributed to a longer persistence of selected CPs during winter. Increasing trends in summer floods are found in the Rhine and Danube catchments, decreasing trends in the Elbe and Weser catchments. Finally, a significant trend towards a reduced diversity of CPs is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. The detailed study of the Mulde catchment reveals a flood regime with frequent low winter floods and fewer summer floods, which bear, however, the potential of becoming extreme. Based on the results, the use of instationary approaches for flood hazard estimation is recommended in order to account for the detected trends in many of the series. Through this methodology it is possible to directly consider temporal changes in flood series, which in turn reduces the possibility of large under- or overestimations of the extreme discharges, respectively. N2 - Hochwasserabschätzungen werden mit Hilfe einer Vielzahl von Methoden ermittelt. Zu diesen zählen Hochwasserhäufigkeitsanalysen, die hydrologische und hydraulische Modellierung, Abschätzungen zu maximal möglichen Abflüssen wie auch Langzeitstudien und Klimaszenarien. Den meisten Methoden ist jedoch gemein, dass sie stationäre Bedingungen der beobachteten Abflussdaten annehmen. Das heißt, in den genutzten Zeitreihen dürfen keine Trends vorliegen. Vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels und nachgewiesener Trends in atmosphärischen Zirkulationsmustern, stellt sich jedoch die Frage, ob sich diese Veränderungen nicht auch in den Abflussdaten widerspiegeln. Ziel der Dissertation ist daher die Überprüfung der Annahme von Trendfreiheit in Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen, um zu klären, ob die aktuell genutzten stationären Verfahren zur Hochwasserbemessung für die vorhandenen Daten in Deutschland geeignet sind. Zu prüfen ist des Weiteren, inwiefern regional und saisonal eine Verschärfung bzw. Abschwächung der Hochwassergefahr beobachtet werden kann und ob eindeutige Korrelationen zwischen Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen bestehen. Den ersten Schwerpunkt der vorliegenden Dissertation bildet die deutschlandweite Analyse von 145 Abflusszeitreihen für den Zeitraum 1951–2002. Acht Hochwasserindikatoren, die verschiedene Aspekte der Hochwasser-Charakteristik beleuchten, werden analysiert und bezüglich möglicher Trends getestet. Um saisonalen Unterschieden in der Hochwassercharakteristik der einzelnen Regionen gerecht zu werden, werden neben jährlichen auch saisonale Reihen untersucht. Die Analyse von Maximalreihen wird durch Schwellenwertanalysen ergänzt, die die Hochwasserdynamik bzgl. Frequenz und Magnitude detaillierter erfassen. Die Daten werden auf verschiedenen Skalen untersucht: sowohl für jeden einzelnen Pegel wie auch für ganze Regionen und Einzugsgebiete. Nicht nur die Analyse der Abflussdaten bietet die Möglichkeit, Bewertungen für die zukünftige Hochwasserabschätzung abzuleiten. Auch Großwetterlagen bilden eine bedeutende Informationsquelle über die Hochwassergefahr, da in der Regel nur ausgewählte Zirkulationsmuster die Entstehung von Hochwasser begünstigen. Die saisonal differenzierte Untersuchung der Großwetterlagen und die Prüfung einer Korrelation zu den Abflüssen an 122 mesoskaligen Einzugsgebieten bilden deshalb den zweiten Schwerpunkt der Arbeit. Hierzu werden tägliche Daten der über Europa dominierenden Großwetterlage (nach Hess und Brezowsky) mit Hilfe verschiedener Indikatoren untersucht. Analysen zum Hochwasserpotential der einzelnen Wetterlagen und weiterer Einflussfaktoren werden für das mesoskalige Einzugsgebiet der Mulde in einer separaten Studie durchgeführt. Für diese Detail-Studie stehen 15 Abflusszeitreihen verschiedener Länge im Zeitraum 1909–2002 zur Verfügung. Um die Daten von Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen bezüglich vorhandener Trends zu testen, werden verschiedene Methoden genutzt. Der Mann-Kendall Test wird mit einem Signifikanzniveau von 10% (zweiseitiger Test) angewendet, was statistisch sichere Bewertungen ermöglicht. Neben der Prüfung der gesamten Datenreihe werden multiple zeitlich-variable Trendanalysen mit Hilfe eines Resampling-Ansatzes durchgeführt. Darüber hinaus werden räumlich differenzierte Analysen durchgeführt, um die saisonale Hochwassercharakteristik einzelner Regionen besser zu verstehen. Diese werden durch Tests zur Feldsignifikanz der Trends ergänzt. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit kann gezeigt werden, dass die Hochwassergefahr für einzelne Regionen im Winterhalbjahr signifikant steigt. Davon sind insbesondere Gebiete in Mitteldeutschland betroffen. Die Verschärfung der Hochwassergefahr durch eine längere Persistenz ausgewählter Großwetterlagen konnte ebenfalls für das Winterhalbjahr nachgewiesen werden. Sommerhochwasser zeigen zwar ebenfalls steigende, aber auch fallende Trends, die räumlich geclustert sind. Im Elbe- und Weser-Einzugsgebiet sinken die Abflüsse signifikant, im Donau- und Rheineinzugsgebiet steigen sie nachweisbar. Darüber hinaus ist eine signifikante Abnahme der Anzahl verschiedener Großwetterlagen sowohl im Sommer als auch im Winter zu verzeichnen. Bzgl. der Studie zum Mulde-Einzugsgebiet konnte ein zweigeteiltes Hochwasserregime nachgewiesen werden. In den Wintermonaten treten häufig kleine Hochwasser auf, die auch die Mehrheit der jährlichen Maximalwerte bilden. Sommerhochwasser sind seltener, können aber extreme Ausmaße annehmen. Ein Vergleich der geschätzten Jährlichkeiten mit verschiedenen Zeitreihen zeigt die Notwendigkeit der Berücksichtigung saisonaler Aspekte für die Bemessung von Hochwassern. Aufgrund der Ergebnisse müssen die bisher genutzten stationären Verfahren als nicht mehr geeignet bewertet werden. Es wird daher die Nutzung instationärer Verfahren zur Abschätzung von Extremhochwasser und der damit verbundenen Bemessung von Schutzmaßnahmen empfohlen, um den teilweise vorliegenden Trends in den Daten Rechnung zu tragen. Durch diesen Ansatz ist es möglich, zeitlich dynamische Veränderungen im Hochwassergeschehen stärker zu berücksichtigen. Darüber hinaus sollten saisonale Aspekte des Einzugsgebietes Eingang in die Gefahrenabschätzung finden. KW - Hochwasser KW - Deutschland KW - Saisonalität KW - Großwetterlage KW - Trends KW - floods KW - Germany KW - trends KW - circulation patterns KW - seasonality Y1 - 2009 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-37392 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Kern, Kristine A1 - Haupt, Wolfgang A1 - Eckersley, Peter A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Ranking local climate policy BT - assessing the mitigation and adaptation activities of 104 German cities JF - Climatic change : an interdisciplinary, international journal devoted to the description, causes and implications of climatic change N2 - Climate mitigation and climate adaptation are crucial tasks for urban areas and can involve synergies as well as trade-offs. However, few studies have examined how mitigation and adaptation efforts relate to each other in a large number of differently sized cities, and therefore we know little about whether forerunners in mitigation are also leading in adaptation or if cities tend to focus on just one policy field. This article develops an internationally applicable approach to rank cities on climate policy that incorporates multiple indicators related to (1) local commitments on mitigation and adaptation, (2) urban mitigation and adaptation plans and (3) climate adaptation and mitigation ambitions. We apply this method to rank 104 differently sized German cities and identify six clusters: climate policy leaders, climate adaptation leaders, climate mitigation leaders, climate policy followers, climate policy latecomers and climate policy laggards. The article seeks explanations for particular cities' positions and shows that coping with climate change in a balanced way on a high level depends on structural factors, in particular city size, the pathways of local climate policies since the 1990s and funding programmes for both climate mitigation and adaptation. N2 - Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung sind zentrale Aufgaben für Städte und können sowohl Synergien bilden als auch in Konflikt zueinander stehen. Allerdings haben weltweit nur wenige Studien bislang untersucht, wie Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung in einer großen Anzahl an Städten unterschiedlicher Größe zueinander stehen; für Deutschland wurde dies bisher noch gar nicht unterssucht. Daher ist bisher wenig darüber bekannt, ob Vorreiterstädte im Klimaschutz auch das Feld in der Klimaanpassung anführen oder ob sich Städte eher nur auf eines der beiden Politikthemen fokussieren. Dieser Artikel entwickelt daher einen international anwendbaren Ansatz, um Städte hinsichtlich ihrer Klimapolitik zu bewerten. In diesem Ansatz werden mehrere Indikatoren zusammengeführt, die sich hinsichtlich Klimaschutz und -anpassung auf (1) den lokalen Willen und das Engagement, (2) die veröffentlichten Konzepte und (3) die verfolgten Ambitionen beziehen. Diesen Ansatz wenden wir an, um 104 unterschiedlich große deutsche Städte zu bewerten und identifizieren darauf aufbauend sechs Cluster: Vorreiter in der Klimapolitik, Vorreiter in der Klimaanpassung, Vorreiter im Klimaschutz, Aufsteiger in der Klimapolitik, Nachahmer in der Klimapolitik und Nachzügler in der Klimapolitik. Der Artikel diskutiert Erklärungsansätze für einzelne Städtepositionen und arbeitet heraus, dass eine ausgewogene Klimapolitik auf hohem Niveau von strukturellen Faktoren abhängt. Insbesondere die Stadtgröße, Pfade der lokalen Klimapolitik seit den 1990ern und Förderprogramme für Klimaschutz und Klimaanpassung spielen hierbei eine Rolle. KW - Climate mitigation KW - Climate adaptation KW - Climate policy integration KW - Urban planning KW - City ranking KW - Germany KW - Deutschland KW - Klimaanpassung KW - Klimapolitische Integration KW - Klimaschutz KW - Stadtplanung KW - Stadtranking Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03142-9 SN - 0165-0009 SN - 1573-1480 VL - 167 IS - 1-2 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Göpfert, Christian A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Are cities prepared for climate change? BT - an analysis of adaptation readiness in 104 German cities JF - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change N2 - Cities can be severely affected by climate change. Hence, many of them have started to develop climate adaptation strategies or implement measures to help prepare for the challenges it will present. This study aims to provide an overview of climate adaptation in 104 German cities. While existing studies on adaptation tracking rely heavily on self-reported data or the mere existence of adaptation plans, we applied the broader concept of adaptation readiness, considering five factors and a total of twelve different indicators, when making our assessments. We clustered the cities depending on the contribution of these factors to the overall adaptation readiness index and grouped them according to their total score and cluster affiliations. This resulted in us identifying four groups of cities. First, a pioneering group comprises twelve (mainly big) cities with more than 500,000 inhabitants, which showed high scores for all five factors of adaptation readiness. Second, a set of 36 active cities, which follow different strategies on how to deal with climate adaptation. Third, a group of 28 cities showed considerably less activity toward climate adaptation, while a fourth set of 28 mostly small cities (with between 50,000 and 99,999 inhabitants) scored the lowest. We consider this final group to be pursuing a 'wait-and-see' approach. Since the city size correlates with the adaptation readiness index, we recommend policymakers introduce funding schemes that focus on supporting small cities, to help them prepare for the impact of a changing climate. KW - Adaptation tracking KW - Adaptation plans KW - Cluster analysis KW - City ranking KW - Urban climate policy KW - Germany Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-021-09971-4 SN - 1381-2386 SN - 1573-1596 VL - 26 IS - 8 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Flash floods versus river floods BT - a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour JF - Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences N2 - River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents. KW - private households KW - risk perceptions KW - extreme rainfall KW - health KW - mitigation KW - Germany KW - people KW - damage KW - preparedness KW - residents Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-20-999-2020 SN - 1684-9981 VL - 20 SP - 999 EP - 1023 PB - European Geophysical Society CY - Katlenburg-Lindau ER - TY - GEN A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Flash floods versus river floods BT - a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 968 KW - private households KW - risk perceptions KW - extreme rainfall KW - health KW - mitigation KW - Germany KW - people KW - damage KW - preparedness KW - residents Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473974 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 968 SP - 999 EP - 1023 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Huber, Veronika A1 - Krummenauer, Linda A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina A1 - Lange, Stefan A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo A1 - Frieler, Katja T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming JF - Environmental Research N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities. KW - temperature-related mortality KW - climate change KW - Future projections KW - Germany KW - global mean temperature Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447 SN - 0013-9351 SN - 1096-0953 VL - 186 SP - 1 EP - 10 PB - Elsevier CY - San Diego, California ER - TY - GEN A1 - Huber, Veronika A1 - Krummenauer, Linda A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina A1 - Lange, Stefan A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo A1 - Frieler, Katja T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1430 KW - temperature-related mortality KW - climate change KW - Future projections KW - Germany KW - global mean temperature Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516511 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - de Brito, Mariana Madruga A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Marx, Andreas T1 - Near-real-time drought impact assessment BT - a text mining approach on the 2018/19 drought in Germany JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Contemporary drought impact assessments have been constrained due to data availability, leading to an incomplete representation of impact trends. To address this, we present a novel method for the comprehensive and near-real-time monitoring of drought socio-economic impacts based on media reports. We tested its application using the case of the exceptional 2018/19 German drought. By employing text mining techniques, 4839 impact statements were identified, relating to livestock, agriculture, forestry, fires, recreation, energy and transport sectors. An accuracy of 95.6% was obtained for their automatic classification. Furthermore, high levels of performance in terms of spatial and temporal precision were found when validating our results against independent data (e.g. soil moisture, average precipitation, population interest in droughts, crop yield and forest fire statistics). The findings highlight the applicability of media data for rapidly and accurately monitoring the propagation of drought consequences over time and space. We anticipate our method to be used as a starting point for an impact-based early warning system. KW - drought impacts KW - Germany KW - text analytics KW - newspaper KW - validation Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba4ca SN - 1748-9326 VL - 15 IS - 10 PB - IOP Publ. CY - Bristol ER -