TY  - GEN
A1  - Metin, Ayse Duha
A1  - Dung, Nguyen Viet
A1  - Schröter, Kai
A1  - Guse, Björn
A1  - Apel, Heiko
A1  - Kreibich, Heidi
A1  - Vorogushyn, Sergiy
A1  - Merz, Bruno
T1  - How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk?
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1067 
KW  - global sensitivity analysis
KW  - climate change
KW  - river floods
KW  - frequency
KW  - Europe
KW  - model
KW  - vulnerability
KW  - adaptation
KW  - strategies
KW  - catchment
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790
SN  - 1866-8372
IS  - 1067
ER  - 
TY  - GEN
A1  - Skinner, Christopher J.
A1  - Coulthard, Tom J.
A1  - Schwanghart, Wolfgang
A1  - Van De Wiel, Marco J.
A1  - Hancock, Greg
T1  - Global sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty in landscape evolution models
T2  - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2  - The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently, with model functions relating to internal geomorphic changes responding in a different way to those relating to the sediment yields from the catchment outlet. The model functions proved useful for providing a way of evaluating the sensitivity of LEMs in the absence of data and methods for an objective function approach.
T3  - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1084 
KW  - self-organized criticality
KW  - rainfall variability
KW  - sediment transport
KW  - periglacial engine
KW  - hydraulic models
KW  - numerical models
KW  - mountain erosion
KW  - river
KW  - catchment
KW  - scale
Y1  - 2021
U6  - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468013
SN  - 1866-8372
IS  - 1084
SP  - 4873
EP  - 4888
ER  -