TY  - JOUR
A1  - Lotze-Campen, Hermann
A1  - Verburg, Peter H.
A1  - Popp, Alexander
A1  - Lindner, Marcus
A1  - Verkerk, Pieter J.
A1  - Moiseyev, Alexander
A1  - Schrammeijer, Elizabeth
A1  - Helming, John
A1  - Tabeau, Andrzej
A1  - Schulp, Catharina J. E.
A1  - van der Zanden, Emma H.
A1  - Lavalle, Carlo
A1  - Batista e Silva, Filipe
A1  - Walz, Ariane
A1  - Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon
T1  - A cross-scale impact assessment of European nature protection policies under contrasting future socio-economic pathways
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Protection of natural or semi-natural ecosystems is an important part of societal strategies for maintaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and achieving overall sustainable development. The assessment of multiple emerging land use trade-offs is complicated by the fact that land use changes occur and have consequences at local, regional, and even global scale. Outcomes also depend on the underlying socio-economic trends. We apply a coupled, multi-scale modelling system to assess an increase in nature protection areas as a key policy option in the European Union (EU). The main goal of the analysis is to understand the interactions between policy-induced land use changes across different scales and sectors under two contrasting future socio-economic pathways. We demonstrate how complementary insights into land system change can be gained by coupling land use models for agriculture, forestry, and urban areas for Europe, in connection with other world regions. The simulated policy case of nature protection shows how the allocation of a certain share of total available land to newly protected areas, with specific management restrictions imposed, may have a range of impacts on different land-based sectors until the year 2040. Agricultural land in Europe is slightly reduced, which is partly compensated for by higher management intensity. As a consequence of higher costs, total calorie supply per capita is reduced within the EU. While wood harvest is projected to decrease, carbon sequestration rates increase in European forests. At the same time, imports of industrial roundwood from other world regions are expected to increase. Some of the aggregate effects of nature protection have very different implications at the local to regional scale in different parts of Europe. Due to nature protection measures, agricultural production is shifted from more productive land in Europe to on average less productive land in other parts of the world. This increases, at the global level, the allocation of land resources for agriculture, leading to a decrease in tropical forest areas, reduced carbon stocks, and higher greenhouse gas emissions outside of Europe. The integrated modelling framework provides a method to assess the land use effects of a single policy option while accounting for the trade-offs between locations, and between regional, European, and global scales.
KW  - Land use change
KW  - Integrated modelling
KW  - Cross-scale interaction
KW  - Nature protection
KW  - Impact assessment
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1167-8
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 18
IS  - 3
SP  - 751
EP  - 762
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Yalew, S. G.
A1  - Pilz, Tobias
A1  - Schweitzer, C.
A1  - Liersch, Stefan
A1  - van der Kwast, J.
A1  - van Griensven, A.
A1  - Mul, Marloes L.
A1  - Dickens, Chris
A1  - van der Zaag, Pieter
T1  - Coupling land-use change and hydrologic models for quantification of catchment ecosystem services
JF  - Environmental modelling & software with environment data news
N2  - Representation of land-use and hydrologic interactions in respective models has traditionally been problematic. The use of static land-use in most hydrologic models or that of the use of simple hydrologic proxies in land-use change models call for more integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to assess whether dynamic feedback between land-use change and hydrology can (1) improve model performances, and/or (2) produce a more realistic quantification of ecosystem services. To test this, we coupled a land-use change model and a hydrologic mode. First, the land-use change and the hydrologic models were separately developed and calibrated. Then, the two models were dynamically coupled to exchange data at yearly time-steps. The approach is applied to a catchment in South Africa. Performance of coupled models when compared to the uncoupled models were marginal, but the coupled models excelled at the quantification of catchment ecosystem services more robustly.
KW  - Model coupling
KW  - Ecosystem services
KW  - Integrated modelling
KW  - Land and water
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.08.029
SN  - 1364-8152
SN  - 1873-6726
VL  - 109
SP  - 315
EP  - 328
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  -