TY  - JOUR
A1  - Reinhardt, Julia
A1  - Liersch, Stefan
A1  - Abdeladhim, Mohamed Arbi
A1  - Diallo, Mori
A1  - Dickens, Chris
A1  - Fournet, Samuel
A1  - Hattermann, Fred
A1  - Kabaseke, Clovis
A1  - Muhumuza, Moses
A1  - Mul, Marloes L.
A1  - Pilz, Tobias
A1  - Otto, Ilona M.
A1  - Walz, Ariane
T1  - Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management
BT  - evidence from four case studies in Africa
JF  - Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability
N2  - Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.
KW  - Africa
KW  - global and regional change
KW  - integrated assessments
KW  - participatory research
KW  - sustainability science
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09728-230105
SN  - 1708-3087
VL  - 23
IS  - 1
PB  - Resilience Alliance
CY  - Wolfville
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Yalew, S. G.
A1  - Pilz, Tobias
A1  - Schweitzer, C.
A1  - Liersch, Stefan
A1  - van der Kwast, J.
A1  - van Griensven, A.
A1  - Mul, Marloes L.
A1  - Dickens, Chris
A1  - van der Zaag, Pieter
T1  - Coupling land-use change and hydrologic models for quantification of catchment ecosystem services
JF  - Environmental modelling & software with environment data news
N2  - Representation of land-use and hydrologic interactions in respective models has traditionally been problematic. The use of static land-use in most hydrologic models or that of the use of simple hydrologic proxies in land-use change models call for more integrated approaches. The objective of this study is to assess whether dynamic feedback between land-use change and hydrology can (1) improve model performances, and/or (2) produce a more realistic quantification of ecosystem services. To test this, we coupled a land-use change model and a hydrologic mode. First, the land-use change and the hydrologic models were separately developed and calibrated. Then, the two models were dynamically coupled to exchange data at yearly time-steps. The approach is applied to a catchment in South Africa. Performance of coupled models when compared to the uncoupled models were marginal, but the coupled models excelled at the quantification of catchment ecosystem services more robustly.
KW  - Model coupling
KW  - Ecosystem services
KW  - Integrated modelling
KW  - Land and water
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.08.029
SN  - 1364-8152
SN  - 1873-6726
VL  - 109
SP  - 315
EP  - 328
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  -