TY - GEN A1 - Rözer, Viktor A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Pech, Ina A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Buchholz, Oliver A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Coping with pluvial floods by private households N2 - Pluvial floods have caused severe damage to urban areas in recent years. With a projected increase in extreme precipitation as well as an ongoing urbanization, pluvial flood damage is expected to increase in the future. Therefore, further insights, especially on the adverse consequences of pluvial floods and their mitigation, are needed. To gain more knowledge, empirical damage data from three different pluvial flood events in Germany were collected through computer-aided telephone interviews. Pluvial flood awareness as well as flood experience were found to be low before the respective flood events. The level of private precaution increased considerably after all events, but is mainly focused on measures that are easy to implement. Lower inundation depths, smaller potential losses as compared with fluvial floods, as well as the fact that pluvial flooding may occur everywhere, are expected to cause a shift in damage mitigation from precaution to emergency response. However, an effective implementation of emergency measures was constrained by a low dissemination of early warnings in the study areas. Further improvements of early warning systems including dissemination as well as a rise in pluvial flood preparedness are important to reduce future pluvial flood damage. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 355 KW - pluvial floods KW - surface water flooding KW - emergency response KW - early warning KW - preparedness KW - damage KW - mitigation Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400465 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Metin, Ayse Duha A1 - Dung, Nguyen Viet A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1067 KW - global sensitivity analysis KW - climate change KW - river floods KW - frequency KW - Europe KW - model KW - vulnerability KW - adaptation KW - strategies KW - catchment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1067 ER - TY - THES A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Improved flood risk assessment BT - new data sources and methods for flood risk modelling N2 - Rivers have always flooded their floodplains. Over 2.5 billion people worldwide have been affected by flooding in recent decades. The economic damage is also considerable, averaging 100 billion US dollars per year. There is no doubt that damage and other negative effects of floods can be avoided. However, this has a price: financially and politically. Costs and benefits can be estimated through risk assessments. Questions about the location and frequency of floods, about the objects that could be affected and their vulnerability are of importance for flood risk managers, insurance companies and politicians. Thus, both variables and factors from the fields of hydrology and sociol-economics play a role with multi-layered connections. One example are dikes along a river, which on the one hand contain floods, but on the other hand, by narrowing the natural floodplains, accelerate the flood discharge and increase the danger of flooding for the residents downstream. Such larger connections must be included in the assessment of flood risk. However, in current procedures this is accompanied by simplifying assumptions. Risk assessments are therefore fuzzy and associated with uncertainties. This thesis investigates the benefits and possibilities of new data sources for improving flood risk assessment. New methods and models are developed, which take the mentioned interrelations better into account and also quantify the existing uncertainties of the model results, and thus enable statements about the reliability of risk estimates. For this purpose, data on flood events from various sources are collected and evaluated. This includes precipitation and flow records at measuring stations as well as for instance images from social media, which can help to delineate the flooded areas and estimate flood damage with location information. Machine learning methods have been successfully used to recognize and understand correlations between floods and impacts from a wide range of data and to develop improved models. Risk models help to develop and evaluate strategies to reduce flood risk. These tools also provide advanced insights into the interplay of various factors and on the expected consequences of flooding. This work shows progress in terms of an improved assessment of flood risks by using diverse data from different sources with innovative methods as well as by the further development of models. Flood risk is variable due to economic and climatic changes, and other drivers of risk. In order to keep the knowledge about flood risks up-to-date, robust, efficient and adaptable methods as proposed in this thesis are of increasing importance. N2 - Flüsse haben seit jeher ihre Auen überflutet. In den vergangenen Jahrzehnten waren weltweit über 2,5 Milliarden Menschen durch Hochwasser betroffen. Auch der ökonomische Schaden ist mit durchschnittlich 100 Milliarden US Dollar pro Jahr erheblich. Zweifelsohne können Schäden und andere negative Auswirkungen von Hochwasser vermieden werden. Allerdings hat dies einen Preis: finanziell und politisch. Kosten und Nutzen lassen sich durch Risikobewertungen abschätzen. Dabei werden in der Wasserwirtschaft, von Versicherungen und der Politik Fragen nach dem Ort und der Häufigkeit von Überflutungen, nach den Dingen, die betroffen sein könnten und deren Anfälligkeit untersucht. Somit spielen sowohl Größen und Faktoren aus den Bereichen der Hydrologie und Sozioökonmie mit vielschichtigen Zusammenhängen eine Rolle. Ein anschauliches Beispiel sind Deiche entlang eines Flusses, die einerseits in ihrem Abschnitt Überflutungen eindämmen, andererseits aber durch die Einengung der natürlichen Vorländer den Hochwasserabfluss beschleunigen und die Gefährdung für die Anlieger flussab verschärfen. Solche größeren Zusammenhänge müssen in der Bewertung des Hochwasserrisikos einbezogen werden. In derzeit gängigen Verfahren geht dies mit vereinfachenden Annahmen einher. Risikoabschätzungen sind daher unscharf und mit Unsicherheiten verbunden. Diese Arbeit untersucht den Nutzen und die Möglichkeiten neuer Datensätze für eine Verbesserung der Hochwasserrisikoabschätzung. Es werden neue Methoden und Modelle entwickelt, die die angesprochenen Zusammenhänge stärker berücksichtigen und auch die bestehenden Unsicherheiten der Modellergebnisse beziffern und somit die Verlässlichkeit der getroffenen Aussagen einordnen lassen. Dafür werden Daten zu Hochwasserereignissen aus verschiedenen Quellen erfasst und ausgewertet. Dazu zählen neben Niederschlags-und Durchflussaufzeichnungen an Messstationen beispielsweise auch Bilder aus sozialen Medien, die mit Ortsangaben und Bildinhalten helfen können, die Überflutungsflächen abzugrenzen und Hochwasserschäden zu schätzen. Verfahren des Maschinellen Lernens wurden erfolgreich eingesetzt, um aus vielfältigen Daten, Zusammenhänge zwischen Hochwasser und Auswirkungen zu erkennen, besser zu verstehen und verbesserte Modelle zu entwickeln. Solche Risikomodelle helfen bei der Entwicklung und Bewertung von Strategien zur Minderung des Hochwasserrisikos. Diese Werkzeuge ermöglichen darüber hinaus Einblicke in das Zusammenspiel verschiedener Faktoren sowie Aussagen zu den zu erwartenden Folgen auch von Hochwassern, die das bisher bekannte Ausmaß übersteigen. Diese Arbeit verzeichnet Fortschritte in Bezug auf eine verbesserte Bewertung von Hochwasserrisiken durch die Nutzung vielfältiger Daten aus unterschiedlichen Quellen mit innovativen Verfahren sowie der Weiterentwicklung von Modellen. Das Hochwasserrisiko unterliegt durch wirtschaftliche Entwicklungen und klimatische Veränderungen einem steten Wandel. Um das Wissen über Risiken aktuell zu halten sind robuste, leistungs- und anpassungsfähige Verfahren wie sie in dieser Arbeit vorgestellt werden von zunehmender Bedeutung. T2 - Verbesserte Hochwasserrisikobewertung: Neue Datenquellen und Methoden für die Risikomodellierung KW - flood KW - risk KW - vulnerability KW - machine learning KW - uncertainty KW - Hochwasser KW - Risiko KW - Vulnerabilität KW - Maschinelles Lernen KW - Unsicherheiten Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-480240 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - New insights into flood warning reception and emergency response by affected parties T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flood damage can be mitigated if the parties at risk are reached by flood warnings and if they know how to react appropriately. To gain more knowledge about warning reception and emergency response of private households and companies, surveys were undertaken after the August 2002 and the June 2013 floods in Germany. Despite pronounced regional differences, the results show a clear overall picture: in 2002, early warnings did not work well; e.g. many households (27 %) and companies (45 %) stated that they had not received any flood warnings. Additionally, the preparedness of private households and companies was low in 2002, mainly due to a lack of flood experience. After the 2002 flood, many initiatives were launched and investments undertaken to improve flood risk management, including early warnings and an emergency response in Germany. In 2013, only a small share of the affected households (5 %) and companies (3 %) were not reached by any warnings. Additionally, private households and companies were better prepared. For instance, the share of companies which have an emergency plan in place has increased from 10% in 2002 to 34% in 2013. However, there is still room for improvement, which needs to be triggered mainly by effective risk and emergency communication. The challenge is to continuously maintain and advance an integrated early warning and emergency response system even without the occurrence of extreme floods. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 659 KW - june 2013 Flood KW - circulation patterns KW - affected residents KW - extreme flood KW - august 2002 KW - Germany KW - risk KW - damage KW - preparedness KW - recovery Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-418381 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 659 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Mühr, Bernhard A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013 N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 294 KW - August 2002 flood KW - Central Europe KW - Floods Directive KW - June 2013 flood KW - governance KW - risk management cycle Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-100600 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Bessel, Tina A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Müller, Meike A1 - Pisi, Sebastian A1 - Schröter, Kai T1 - The flood of June 2013 in Germany BT - how much do we know about its impacts? T2 - National Hazards Earth System Science N2 - In June 2013, widespread flooding and consequent damage and losses occurred in Central Europe, especially in Germany. This paper explores what data are available to investigate the adverse impacts of the event, what kind of information can be retrieved from these data and how well data and information fulfil requirements that were recently proposed for disaster reporting on the European and international levels. In accordance with the European Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), impacts on human health, economic activities (and assets), cultural heritage and the environment are described on the national and sub-national scale. Information from governmental reports is complemented by communications on traffic disruptions and surveys of flood-affected residents and companies. Overall, the impacts of the flood event in 2013 were manifold. The study reveals that flood-affected residents suffered from a large range of impacts, among which mental health and supply problems were perceived more seriously than financial losses. The most frequent damage type among affected companies was business interruption. This demonstrates that the current scientific focus on direct (financial) damage is insufficient to describe the overall impacts and severity of flood events. The case further demonstrates that procedures and standards for impact data collection in Germany are widely missing. Present impact data in Germany are fragmentary, heterogeneous, incomplete and difficult to access. In order to fulfil, for example, the monitoring and reporting requirements of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 that was adopted in March 2015 in Sendai, Japan, more efforts on impact data collection are needed. Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-97207 ER -