TY - JOUR A1 - Öztürk, Ugur A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - Jensen, J. T1 - A new centennial sea-level record for Antalya, Eastern Mediterranean JF - Journal of geophysical research-oceans N2 - Quantitative estimates of sea-level rise in the Mediterranean Basin become increasingly accurate thanks to detailed satellite monitoring. However, such measuring campaigns cover several years to decades, while longer-term sea-level records are rare for the Mediterranean. We used a data archeological approach to reanalyze monthly mean sea-level data of the Antalya-I (1935–1977) tide gauge to fill this gap. We checked the accuracy and reliability of these data before merging them with the more recent records of the Antalya-II (1985–2009) tide gauge, accounting for an eight-year hiatus. We obtain a composite time series of monthly and annual mean sea levels spanning some 75 years, providing the longest record for the eastern Mediterranean Basin, and thus an essential tool for studying the region's recent sea-level trends. We estimate a relative mean sea-level rise of 2.2 ± 0.5 mm/year between 1935 and 2008, with an annual variability (expressed here as the standard deviation of the residuals, σresiduals = 41.4 mm) above that at the closest tide gauges (e.g., Thessaloniki, Greece, σresiduals = 29.0 mm). Relative sea-level rise accelerated to 6.0 ± 1.5 mm/year at Antalya-II; we attribute roughly half of this rate (~3.6 mm/year) to tectonic crustal motion and anthropogenic land subsidence. Our study highlights the value of data archeology for recovering and integrating historic tide gauge data for long-term sea-level and climate studies. KW - sea level KW - tide gauge KW - data archeology KW - Mediterranean Sea Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC013906 SN - 2169-9275 SN - 2169-9291 VL - 123 IS - 7 SP - 4503 EP - 4517 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ziebarth, Malte J. A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Heidbach, Oliver A1 - Cotton, Fabrice A1 - Anderson, John G. T1 - Applying conservation of energy to estimate earthquake frequencies from strain rates and stresses JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - Estimating earthquake occurrence rates from the accumulation rate of seismic moment is an established tool of seismic hazard analysis. We propose an alternative, fault-agnostic approach based on the conservation of energy: the Energy-Conserving Seismicity Framework (ENCOS). Working in energy space has the advantage that the radiated energy is a better predictor of the damage potential of earthquake waves than the seismic moment release. In a region, ENCOS balances the stationary power available to cause earthquakes with the long-term seismic energy release represented by the energy-frequency distribution's first moment. Accumulation and release are connected through the average seismic efficiency, by which we mean the fraction of released energy that is converted into seismic waves. Besides measuring earthquakes in energy, ENCOS differs from moment balance essentially in that the energy accumulation rate depends on the total stress in addition to the strain rate tensor. To validate ENCOS, we exemplarily model the energy-frequency distribution around Southern California. We estimate the energy accumulation rate due to tectonic loading assuming poroelasticity and hydrostasis. Using data from the World Stress Map and assuming the frictional limit to estimate the stress tensor, we obtain a power of 0.8 GW. The uncertainty range, 0.3-2.0GW, originates mainly from the thickness of the seismogenic crust, the friction coefficient on preexisting faults, and models of Global Positioning System (GPS) derived strain rates. Based on a Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency distribution, this power can be distributed over a range of energies consistent with historical earthquake rates and reasonable bounds on the seismic efficiency. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JB020186 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 125 IS - 8 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Zang, Arno A1 - Stephansson, Ove A1 - Stenberg, Leif A1 - Plenkers, Katrin A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Milkereit, Claus A1 - Schill, Eva A1 - Kwiatek, Grzegorz A1 - Dresen, Georg A1 - Zimmermann, Günter A1 - Dahm, Torsten A1 - Weber, Michael T1 - Hydraulic fracture monitoring in hard rock at 410 m depth with an advanced fluid-injection protocol and extensive sensor array JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - In this paper, an underground experiment at the Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory (HRL) is described. Main goal is optimizing geothermal heat exchange in crystalline rock mass at depth by multistage hydraulic fracturing with minimal impact on the environment, that is, seismic events. For this, three arrays with acoustic emission, microseismicity and electromagnetic sensors are installed mapping hydraulic fracture initiation and growth. Fractures are driven by three different water injection schemes (continuous, progressive and pulse pressurization). After a brief review of hydraulic fracture operations in crystalline rock mass at mine scale, the site geology and the stress conditions at Aspo HRL are described. Then, the continuous, single-flow rate and alternative, multiple-flow rate fracture breakdown tests in a horizontal borehole at depth level 410 m are described together with the monitoring networks and sensitivity. Monitoring results include the primary catalogue of acoustic emission hypocentres obtained from four hydraulic fractures with the in situ trigger and localizing network. The continuous versus alternative water injection schemes are discussed in terms of the fracture breakdown pressure, the fracture pattern from impression packer result and the monitoring at the arrays. An example of multistage hydraulic fracturing with several phases of opening and closing of fracture walls is evaluated using data from acoustic emissions, seismic broad-band recordings and electromagnetic signal response. Based on our limited amount of in situ tests (six) and evaluation of three tests in Avro granodiorite, in the multiple-flow rate test with progressively increasing target pressure, the acoustic emission activity starts at a later stage in the fracturing process compared to the conventional fracturing case with continuous water injection. In tendency, also the total number and magnitude of acoustic events are found to be smaller in the progressive treatment with frequent phases of depressurization. KW - Geomechanics KW - Fracture and flow KW - Broad-band seismometers Y1 - 2016 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 208 SP - 790 EP - 813 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Yen, Ming-Hsuan A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Lin, Yen-Yu A1 - Cotton, Fabrice A1 - Ma, Kuo-Fong T1 - Within- and between-event variabilities of strong-velocity pulses of moderate earthquakes within dense seismic arrays JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - Ground motion with strong-velocity pulses can cause significant damage to buildings and structures at certain periods; hence, knowing the period and velocity amplitude of such pulses is critical for earthquake structural engineering. However, the physical factors relating the scaling of pulse periods with magnitude are poorly understood. In this study, we investigate moderate but damaging earthquakes (M-w 6-7) and characterize ground- motion pulses using the method of Shahi and Baker (2014) while considering the potential static-offset effects. We confirm that the within-event variability of the pulses is large. The identified pulses in this study are mostly from strike-slip-like earthquakes. We further perform simulations using the freq uency-wavenumber algorithm to investigate the causes of the variability of the pulse periods within and between events for moderate strike-slip earthquakes. We test the effect of fault dips, and the impact of the asperity locations and sizes. The simulations reveal that the asperity properties have a high impact on the pulse periods and amplitudes at nearby stations. Our results emphasize the importance of asperity characteristics, in addition to earthquake magnitudes for the occurrence and properties of pulses produced by the forward directivity effect. We finally quantify and discuss within- and between-event variabilities of pulse properties at short distances. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200376 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 112 IS - 1 SP - 361 EP - 380 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - El Cerito, Calif. ER - TY - JOUR A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Öztürk, Ugur A1 - Veh, Georg A1 - Cotton, Fabrice A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Effects of finite source rupture on landslide triggering BT - the 2016 M-w 7.1 Kumamoto earthquake JF - Solid earth N2 - The propagation of a seismic rupture on a fault introduces spatial variations in the seismic wave field surrounding the fault. This directivity effect results in larger shaking amplitudes in the rupture propagation direction. Its seismic radiation pattern also causes amplitude variations between the strike-normal and strike-parallel components of horizontal ground motion. We investigated the landslide response to these effects during the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M-w 7.1) in central Kyushu (Japan). Although the distribution of some 1500 earthquake-triggered landslides as a function of rupture distance is consistent with the observed Arias intensity, the landslides were more concentrated to the northeast of the southwest-northeast striking rupture. We examined several landslide susceptibility factors: hillslope inclination, the median amplification factor (MAF) of ground shaking, lithology, land cover, and topographic wetness. None of these factors sufficiently explains the landslide distribution or orientation (aspect), although the landslide head scarps have an elevated hillslope inclination and MAF. We propose a new physics-based ground-motion model (GMM) that accounts for the seismic rupture effects, and we demonstrate that the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern is consistent with the overall landslide distribution. Its spatial pattern is influenced by the rupture directivity effect, whereas landslide aspect is influenced by amplitude variations between the fault-normal and fault-parallel motion at frequencies < 2 Hz. This azimuth dependence implies that comparable landslide concentrations can occur at different distances from the rupture. This quantitative link between the prevalent landslide aspect and the low-frequency seismic radiation pattern can improve coseismic landslide hazard assessment. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-463-2019 SN - 1869-9510 SN - 1869-9529 VL - 10 IS - 2 SP - 463 EP - 486 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Heidbach, Oliver A1 - Cotton, Fabrice A1 - Zang, Arno T1 - Uncertainty reduction of stress tensor inversion with data-driven catalogue selection JF - Geophysical journal international N2 - The selection of earthquake focal mechanisms (FMs) for stress tensor inversion (STI) is commonly done on a spatial basis, that is, hypocentres. However, this selection approach may include data that are undesired, for example, by mixing events that are caused by different stress tensors when for the STI a single stress tensor is assumed. Due to the significant increase of FM data in the past decades, objective data-driven data selection is feasible, allowing more refined FM catalogues that avoid these issues and provide data weights for the STI routines. We present the application of angular classification with expectation-maximization (ACE) as a tool for data selection. ACE identifies clusters of FM without a priori information. The identified clusters can be used for the classification of the style-of-faulting and as weights of the FM data. We demonstrate that ACE effectively selects data that can be associated with a single stress tensor. Two application examples are given for weighted STI from South America. We use the resulting clusters and weights as a priori information for an STI for these regions and show that uncertainties of the stress tensor estimates are reduced significantly. KW - Inverse Theory KW - Statistical Methods KW - Seismicity KW - tectonics KW - Kinematics of crustal KW - mantle deformation Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggy240 SN - 0956-540X SN - 1365-246X VL - 214 IS - 3 SP - 2250 EP - 2263 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Cotton, Fabrice T1 - A link between machine learning and optimization in ground-motion model development BT - weighted mixed-effects regression with data-driven probabilistic earthquake classification JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - The steady increase of ground-motion data not only allows new possibilities but also comes with new challenges in the development of ground-motion models (GMMs). Data classification techniques (e.g., cluster analysis) do not only produce deterministic classifications but also probabilistic classifications (e.g., probabilities for each datum to belong to a given class or cluster). One challenge is the integration of such continuous classification in regressions for GMM development such as the widely used mixed-effects model. We address this issue by introducing an extension of the mixed-effects model to incorporate data weighting. The parameter estimation of the mixed-effects model, that is, fixed-effects coefficients of the GMMs and the random-effects variances, are based on the weighted likelihood function, which also provides analytic uncertainty estimates. The data weighting permits for earthquake classification beyond the classical, expert-driven, binary classification based, for example, on event depth, distance to trench, style of faulting, and fault dip angle. We apply Angular Classification with Expectation-maximization, an algorithm to identify clusters of nodal planes from focal mechanisms to differentiate between, for example, interface- and intraslab-type events. Classification is continuous, that is, no event belongs completely to one class, which is taken into account in the ground-motion modeling. The theoretical framework described in this article allows for a fully automatic calibration of ground-motion models using large databases with automated classification and processing of earthquake and ground-motion data. As an example, we developed a GMM on the basis of the GMM by Montalva et al. (2017) with data from the strong-motion flat file of Bastias and Montalva (2016) with similar to 2400 records from 319 events in the Chilean subduction zone. Our GMM with the data-driven classification is comparable to the expert-classification-based model. Furthermore, the model shows temporal variations of the between-event residuals before and after large earthquakes in the region. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120190133 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 110 IS - 6 SP - 2777 EP - 2800 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - THES A1 - von Specht, Sebastian T1 - Likelihood - based optimization in strong-motion seismology Y1 - 2019 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Veh, Georg A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Rößner, Sigrid A1 - Walz, Ariane T1 - Unchanged frequency of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods in the Himalaya JF - Nature climate change N2 - Shrinking glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalaya-Nyainqentanglha (HKKHN) region have formed several thousand moraine-dammed glacial lakes(1-3), some of these having grown rapidly in past decades(3,4). This growth may promote more frequent and potentially destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)(5-7). Testing this hypothesis, however, is confounded by incomplete databases of the few reliable, though selective, case studies. Here we present a consistent Himalayan GLOF inventory derived automatically from all available Landsat imagery since the late 1980s. We more than double the known GLOF count and identify the southern Himalayas as a hotspot region, compared to the more rarely affected Hindu Kush-Karakoram ranges. Nevertheless, the average annual frequency of 1.3 GLOFs has no credible posterior trend despite reported increases in glacial lake areas in most of the HKKHN3,8, so that GLOF activity per unit lake area has decreased since the late 1980s. We conclude that learning more about the frequency and magnitude of outburst triggers, rather than focusing solely on rapidly growing glacial lakes, might improve the appraisal of GLOF hazards. KW - Climate change KW - Cryospheric science KW - Environmental impact KW - Geomorphology Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0437-5 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 9 IS - 5 SP - 379 EP - 383 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Socquet, Anne A1 - Valdes, Jesus Pina A1 - Jara, Jorge A1 - Cotton, Fabrice A1 - Walpersdorf, Andrea A1 - Cotte, Nathalie A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Ortega-Culaciati, Francisco A1 - Carrizo, Daniel A1 - Norabuena, Edmundo T1 - An 8month slow slip event triggers progressive nucleation of the 2014 Chile megathrust JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - The mechanisms leading to large earthquakes are poorly understood and documented. Here we characterize the long-term precursory phase of the 1 April 2014 M(w)8.1 North Chile megathrust. We show that a group of coastal GPS stations accelerated westward 8months before the main shock, corresponding to a M(w)6.5 slow slip event on the subduction interface, 80% of which was aseismic. Concurrent interface foreshocks underwent a diminution of their radiation at high frequency, as shown by the temporal evolution of Fourier spectra and residuals with respect to ground motions predicted by recent subduction models. Such ground motions change suggests that in response to the slow sliding of the subduction interface, seismic ruptures are progressively becoming smoother and/or slower. The gradual propagation of seismic ruptures beyond seismic asperities into surrounding metastable areas could explain these observations and might be the precursory mechanism eventually leading to the main shock. KW - seismology KW - GPS KW - subduction KW - precursor Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073023 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 44 SP - 4046 EP - 4053 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Niemz, Peter A1 - Cesca, Simone A1 - Heimann, Sebastian A1 - Grigoli, Francesco A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Hammer, Conny A1 - Zang, Arno A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - Full-waveform-based characterization of acoustic emission activity in a mine-scale experiment BT - a comparison of conventional and advanced hydraulic fracturing schemes JF - Geophysical journal international / the Royal Astronomical Society, the Deutsche Geophysikalische Gesellschaft and the European Geophysical Society N2 - Understanding fracturing processes and the hydromechanical relation to induced seismicity is a key question for enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Commonly massive fluid injection, predominately causing hydroshearing, are used in large-scale EGS but also hydraulic fracturing approaches were discussed. To evaluate the applicability of hydraulic fracturing techniques in EGS, six in situ, multistage hydraulic fracturing experiments with three different injection schemes were performed under controlled conditions in crystalline rock at the Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory (Sweden). During the experiments the near-field ground motion was continuously recorded by 11 piezoelectric borehole sensors with a sampling rate of 1 MHz. The sensor network covered a volume of 30x30x30 m around a horizontal, 28-m-long injection borehole at a depth of 410 m. To extract and characterize massive, induced, high-frequency acoustic emission (AE) activity from continuous recordings, a semi-automated workflow was developed relying on full waveform based detection, classification and location procedures. The approach extended the AE catalogue from 196 triggered events in previous studies to more than 19600 located AEs. The enhanced catalogue, for the first time, allows a detailed analysis of induced seismicity during single hydraulic fracturing experiments, including the individual fracturing stages and the comparison between injection schemes. Beside the detailed study of the spatio-temporal patterns, event clusters and the growth of seismic clouds, we estimate relative magnitudes and b-values of AEs for conventional, cyclic progressive and dynamic pulse injection schemes, the latter two being fatigue hydraulic fracturing techniques. While the conventional fracturing leads to AE patterns clustered in planar regions, indicating the generation of a single main fracture plane, the cyclic progressive injection scheme results in a more diffuse, cloud-like AE distribution, indicating the activation of a more complex fracture network. For a given amount of hydraulic energy (pressure multiplied by injected volume) pumped into the system, the cyclic progressive scheme is characterized by a lower rate of seismicity, lower maximum magnitudes and significantly larger b-values, implying an increased number of small events relative to the large ones. To our knowledge, this is the first direct comparison of high resolution seismicity in a mine-scale experiment induced by different hydraulic fracturing schemes. KW - Fracture and flow KW - Spatial analysis KW - Statistical methods KW - Time-series analysis KW - Induced seismicity Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa127 SN - 0955-419X SN - 1365-246X VL - 222 IS - 1 SP - 189 EP - 206 PB - Oxford Univ. Press CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lilienkamp, Henning A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Weatherill, Graeme A1 - Caire, Giuseppe A1 - Cotton, Fabrice T1 - Ground-Motion modeling as an image processing task BT - introducing a neural network based, fully data-driven, and nonergodic JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - We construct and examine the prototype of a deep learning-based ground-motion model (GMM) that is both fully data driven and nonergodic. We formulate ground-motion modeling as an image processing task, in which a specific type of neural network, the U-Net, relates continuous, horizontal maps of earthquake predictive parameters to sparse observations of a ground-motion intensity measure (IM). The processing of map-shaped data allows the natural incorporation of absolute earthquake source and observation site coordinates, and is, therefore, well suited to include site-, source-, and path-specific amplification effects in a nonergodic GMM. Data-driven interpolation of the IM between observation points is an inherent feature of the U-Net and requires no a priori assumptions. We evaluate our model using both a synthetic dataset and a subset of observations from the KiK-net strong motion network in the Kanto basin in Japan. We find that the U-Net model is capable of learning the magnitude???distance scaling, as well as site-, source-, and path-specific amplification effects from a strong motion dataset. The interpolation scheme is evaluated using a fivefold cross validation and is found to provide on average unbiased predictions. The magnitude???distance scaling as well as the site amplification of response spectral acceleration at a period of 1 s obtained for the Kanto basin are comparable to previous regional studies. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120220008 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 112 IS - 3 SP - 1565 EP - 1582 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kwiatek, Grzegorz A1 - Martinez-Garzon, Patricia A1 - Plenkers, K. A1 - Leonhardt, Maria A1 - Zang, Arno A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Dresen, Georg A1 - Bohnhoff, Marco T1 - Insights into complex subdecimeter fracturing processes occurring during a water injection experiment at depth in Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory, Sweden JF - Journal of geophysical research : Solid earth N2 - We investigate the source characteristics of picoseismicity (M-w < -2) recorded during a hydraulic fracturing in situ experiment performed in the underground Aspo Hard Rock Laboratory, Sweden. The experiment consisted of six stimulations driven by three different water injection schemes and was performed inside a 28-m-long, horizontal borehole located at 410-m depth. The fracturing processes were monitored with a variety of seismic networks including broadband seismometers, geophones, high-frequency accelerometers, and acoustic emission sensors thereby covering a wide frequency band between 0.01 and 100,000Hz. Here we study the high-frequency signals with dominant frequencies exceeding 1000 Hz. The combined seismic network allowed for detection and detailed analysis of 196 small-scale seismic events with moment magnitudes M-W < -3.5 (source sizes of decimeter scale) that occurred solely during the stimulations and shortly after. The double-difference relocated hypocenter catalog as well as source parameters were used to study the physical characteristics of the induced seismicity and then compared to the stimulation parameters. We observe a spatiotemporal migration of the picoseismic events away and toward the injection intervals in direct correlation with changes in the hydraulic energy (product of fluid injection pressure and injection rate). We find that the total radiated seismic energy is extremely low with respect to the product of injected fluid volume and pressure (hydraulic energy). The radiated seismic energy correlates well with the hydraulic energy rate. The obtained fault plane solutions for particularly well-characterized events signify the reactivation of preexisting rock defects under influence of increased pore fluid pressure on fault plane orientations in good correspondence with the local stress field orientation. KW - induced seismicity KW - fracking KW - picoseismicity KW - seismomechanics KW - source parameters KW - maximum magnitude Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2017JB014715 SN - 2169-9313 SN - 2169-9356 VL - 123 IS - 8 SP - 6616 EP - 6635 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Händel, Annabel A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Kuehn, Nicolas M. A1 - Scherbaum, Frank T1 - Mixtures of ground-motion prediction equations as backbone models for a logic tree: an application to the subduction zone in Northern Chile JF - Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering N2 - In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, different ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) are commonly combined within a logic tree framework. The selection of appropriate GMPEs, however, is a non-trivial task, especially for regions where strong motion data are sparse and where no indigenous GMPE exists because the set of models needs to capture the whole range of ground-motion uncertainty. In this study we investigate the aggregation of GMPEs into a mixture model with the aim to infer a backbone model that is able to represent the center of the ground-motion distribution in a logic tree analysis. This central model can be scaled up and down to obtain the full range of ground-motion uncertainty. The combination of models into a mixture is inferred from observed ground-motion data. We tested the new approach for Northern Chile, a region for which no indigenous GMPE exists. Mixture models were calculated for interface and intraslab type events individually. For each source type we aggregated eight subduction zone GMPEs using mainly new strong-motion data that were recorded within the Plate Boundary Observatory Chile project and that were processed within this study. We can show that the mixture performs better than any of its component GMPEs, and that it performs comparable to a regression model that was derived for the same dataset. The mixture model seems to represent the median ground motions in that region fairly well. It is thus able to serve as a backbone model for the logic tree. KW - Mixture model KW - Backbone model KW - Ground-motion prediction equation KW - Logic tree KW - Chile subduction zone Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-014-9636-7 SN - 1570-761X SN - 1573-1456 VL - 13 IS - 2 SP - 483 EP - 501 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bayona Viveros, Jose Antonio A1 - von Specht, Sebastian A1 - Strader, Anne A1 - Hainzl, Sebastian A1 - Cotton, Fabrice A1 - Schorlemmer, Danijel T1 - A Regionalized Seismicity Model for Subduction Zones Based on Geodetic Strain Rates, Geomechanical Parameters, and Earthquake-Catalog Data JF - Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America N2 - The Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics based on the Global Strain Rate Map (SHIFT_GSRM) earthquake forecast was designed to provide high-resolution estimates of global shallow seismicity to be used in seismic hazard assessment. This model combines geodetic strain rates with global earthquake parameters to characterize long-term rates of seismic moment and earthquake activity. Although SHIFT_GSRM properly computes seismicity rates in seismically active continental regions, it underestimates earthquake rates in subduction zones by an average factor of approximately 3. We present a complementary method to SHIFT_GSRM to more accurately forecast earthquake rates in 37 subduction segments, based on the conservation of moment principle and the use of regional interface seismicity parameters, such as subduction dip angles, corner magnitudes, and coupled seismogenic thicknesses. In seven progressive steps, we find that SHIFT_GSRM earthquake-rate underpredictions are mainly due to the utilization of a global probability function of seismic moment release that poorly captures the great variability among subduction megathrust interfaces. Retrospective test results show that the forecast is consistent with the observations during the 1 January 1977 to 31 December 2014 period. Moreover, successful pseudoprospective evaluations for the 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018 period demonstrate the power of the regionalized earthquake model to properly estimate subduction-zone seismicity. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1785/0120190034 SN - 0037-1106 SN - 1943-3573 VL - 109 IS - 5 SP - 2036 EP - 2049 PB - Seismological Society of America CY - Albany ER -