TY - JOUR
A1 - Wutzler, Bianca
A1 - Hudson, Paul
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
T1 - Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany
JF - Frontiers in water
N2 - Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.
KW - risk management
KW - climate change adaptation
KW - floods
KW - disaster risk
KW - reduction
KW - Germany
KW - precaution
KW - emergency management
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.932061
SN - 2624-9375
VL - 4
PB - Frontiers Media
CY - Lausanne
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Wutzler, Bianca
A1 - Hudson, Paul
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
T1 - Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany
JF - Frontiers in Water
N2 - Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.
KW - risk management
KW - climate change adaptation
KW - floods
KW - disaster risk reduction
KW - Germany
KW - precaution
KW - emergency management
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.3389/frwa.2022.932061
SN - 2624-9375
PB - Frontiers Media SA
CY - Lausanne, Schweiz
ER -
TY - GEN
A1 - Wutzler, Bianca
A1 - Hudson, Paul
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
T1 - Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany
T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2 - Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication.
T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1304
KW - risk management
KW - climate change adaptation
KW - floods
KW - disaster risk reduction
KW - Germany
KW - precaution
KW - emergency management
Y1 - 2023
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-577350
SN - 1866-8372
IS - 1304
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy
A1 - Apel, Heiko
A1 - Kemter, Matthias
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
T1 - Analyse der Hochwassergefährdung im Ahrtal unter Berücksichtigung historischer Hochwasser
T1 - Analysis of flood hazard in the Ahr Valley considering historical floods
JF - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung
N2 - The flood disaster in July 2021 in western Germany calls for a critical discussion on flood hazard assessment, revision of flood hazard maps and communication of extreme flood scenarios. In the presented work, extreme value analysis was carried out for annual maximum peak flow series at the Altenahr gauge on the river Ahr. We compared flood statistics with and without considering historical flood events. An estimate for the return period of the recent flood based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution considering historical floods ranges between about 2600 and above 58700 years (90% confidence interval) with a median of approximately 8600 years, whereas an estimate based on the 74-year long systematically recorded flow series would theoretically exceed 100 million years. Consideration of historical floods dramatically changes the flood quantiles that are used for the generation of official flood hazard maps. The fitting of the GEV to the time series with historical floods reveals, however, that the model potentially inadequately reflects the flood population. In this case, we might face a mixed sample, in which extreme floods result from very different processes compared to smaller floods. Hence, the probabilities of extreme floods could be much larger than those resulting from a single GEV model. The application of a process-based mixed flood distribution should be explored in future work.
The comparison of the official HQextrem flood maps for the AhrValley with the inundation areas from July 2021 shows a striking discrepancy in the affected areas and calls for revision of design values used to define extreme flood scenarios. The hydrodynamic simulations of a 1000-year return period flood considering historical events and of the 1804 flood scenario compare much better to the flooded areas from July 2021, though both scenarios still underestimated the flood extent.
Particular effects such as clogging of bridges and geomorphological changes of the river channel led to considerably larger flooded areas in July 2021 compared to the simulation results. Based on this analysis, we call for a consistent definition of HQextrem for flood hazard mapping in Germany, and suggest using high flood quantiles in the range of a 1,000-year flood. Flood maps should additionally include model-based reconstructions of the largest, reliably documented historical floods and/or synthetic worst-case scenarios. This would be an important step towards protecting potentially affected population and disaster management from surprises due to very rare and extreme flood events in future.
N2 - Die Hochwasserkatastrophe im Juli 2021 in Westdeutschland erfordert eine kritische Diskussion über die Abschätzung der Hochwassergefährdung, Aktualisierung von Hochwassergefahrenkarten und Kommunikation von extremen Hochwasserszenarien. In der vorliegenden Arbeit wurde die Extremwertstatistik für die jährlichen maximalen Spitzenabflüsse am Pegel Altenahr im Ahrtal mit und ohne Berücksichtigung historischer Hochwasser berechnet und verglichen. Die Schätzung der Wiederkehrperiode für das aktuelle Hochwasser mittels Generalisierter Extremwertverteilung (GEV) unter Berücksichtigung historischer Hochwasser schwankt zwischen etwa 2.600 und über 58.700 Jahren (90%-Konfidenzintervall) mit einem Median bei etwa 8.600 Jahren, wogegen die Schätzung, die nur auf der systematisch gemessenen Abflusszeitreihe von 74 Jahren basiert, theoretisch eine Wiederkehrperiode von über 100 Millionen Jahren ergeben würde. Die Berücksichtigung der historischen Hochwasser führt zu einer dramatischen Änderung der Hochwasserquan-
tile, die für eine Gefahrenkartierung zugrunde gelegt werden. Die Anpassung der GEV an die Zeitreihe mit historischen Hochwassern zeigt dennoch, dass das GEV-Modell möglicherweise die Grundgesamtheit der Hochwasser im Ahrtal nicht adäquat abbilden kann. Es könnte sich im vorliegenden Fall um eine gemischte Stichprobe handeln, in der die extremen Hochwasser im Vergleich zu kleineren Ereignissen durch besondere Prozesse hervorgerufen werden. Somit könnten die Wahrscheinlichkeiten von extremen Hochwassern deutlich größer sein, als aus dem GEV-Modell hervorgeht. Hier sollte in Zukunft die Anwendung einer prozessbasierten Mischverteilung
untersucht werden. Der Vergleich von amtlichen Gefahrenkarten zu Extremhochwassern (HQextrem) im Ahrtal mit den Überflutungsflächen vom Juli 2021
zeigt eine deutliche Diskrepanz in den betroffenen Gebieten und die Notwendigkeit, die Grundlagen zur Erstellung der Extremszenarien zu überdenken. Die hydrodynamisch-numerischen Simulationen von 1.000-jährlichen Hochwassern (HQ1000) unter Berücksichtigung historischer Ereignisse und des größten historischen Hochwassers 1804 können die Gefährdung des Juli-Hochwassers 2021 deutlich besser widerspiegeln, wenngleich auch diese beiden Szenarien die Überflutungsflächen unterschätzen. Besondere Effekte wie die Verklausung von Brücken und die geomorphologischen Änderungen im Flussschlauch führten zu noch größeren Überflutungs- flächen im Juli 2021, als die Simulationsergebnisse zeigten. Basierend auf dieser Analyse wird eine einheitliche Festlegung von HQextrem bei Hochwassergefahrenkartierungen in Deutschland vorgeschlagen, die sich an höheren Hochwasserquantilen im Bereich von HQ1000 orientiert. Zusätzlich sollen simulationsbasierte Rekonstruktionen von den größten verlässlich dokumentierten historischen Hochwassern und/oder synthetische Worst-Case-Szenarien in den Hochwassergefahrenkarten gesondert dargestellt werden. Damit wird ein wichtiger Beitrag geleistet, um die potenziell betroffene Bevölkerung und das Katastrophenmanagement vor Überraschungen durch sehr seltene und extreme Hochwasser in Zukunft besser zu schützen.
KW - Extreme value statistics
KW - historical floods
KW - flood hazard mapping;
KW - inundation simulation
KW - Ahr River
KW - Extremwertstatistik
KW - historische Hochwasser
KW - Gefahrenkarten
KW - Überflutungssimulation
KW - Ahr
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2022.5_2
SN - 1439-1783
VL - 66
IS - 5
SP - 244
EP - 254
PB - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde
CY - Koblenz
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Vogel, Kristin
A1 - Weise, Laura
A1 - Schröter, Kai
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
T1 - Identifying Driving Factors in Flood-Damaging Processes Using Graphical Models
JF - Water resources research
N2 - Flood damage estimation is a core task in flood risk assessments and requires reliable flood loss models. Identifying the driving factors of flood loss at residential buildings and gaining insight into their relations is important to improve our understanding of flood damage processes. For that purpose, we learn probabilistic graphical models, which capture and illustrate (in-)dependencies between the considered variables. The models are learned based on postevent surveys with flood-affected residents after six flood events, which occurred in Germany between 2002 and 2013. Besides the sustained building damage, the survey data contain information about flooding parameters, early warning and emergency measures, property-level mitigation measures and preparedness, socioeconomic characteristics of the household, and building characteristics. The analysis considers the entire data set with a total of 4,468 cases as well as subsets of the data set partitioned into single flood events and flood types: river floods, levee breaches, surface water flooding, and groundwater floods, to reveal differences in the damaging processes. The learned networks suggest that the flood loss ratio of residential buildings is directly influenced by hydrological and hydraulic aspects as well as by building characteristics and property-level mitigation measures. The study demonstrates also that for different flood events and process types the building damage is influenced by varying factors. This suggests that flood damage models need to be capable of reproducing these differences for spatial and temporal model transfers.
KW - flood loss
KW - Bayesian Network
KW - Markov Blanket
KW - vulnerability
KW - Germany
Y1 - 2018
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022858
SN - 0043-1397
SN - 1944-7973
VL - 54
IS - 11
SP - 8864
EP - 8889
PB - American Geophysical Union
CY - Washington
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Vogel, Kristin
A1 - Ozturk, Ugur
A1 - Riemer, Adrian
A1 - Laudan, Jonas
A1 - Sieg, Tobias
A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto
A1 - Agarwal, Ankit
A1 - Roezer, Viktor
A1 - Korup, Oliver
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
T1 - Die Sturzflut von Braunsbach am 29. Mai 2016 – Entstehung, Ablauf und Schäden eines „Jahrhundertereignisses“
T1 - The Braunsbach Flashflood of Mai 29th, 2016-Origin, Pathways and Impacts of an Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Event
BT - Teil 2: Geomorphologische Prozesse und Schadensanalyse
BT - Part 2: Geomorphological Processes and Damage Analysis
JF - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung
N2 - Am Abend des 29. Mai 2016 wurde der Ort Braunsbach im Landkreis Schwäbisch-Hall (Baden-Württemberg) von einer Sturzflut getroffen, bei der mehrere Häuser stark beschädigt oder zerstört wurden. Die Sturzflut war eine der Unwetterfolgen, die im Frühsommer 2016 vom Tiefdruckgebiet Elvira ausgelöst wurden. Der vorliegende Bericht ist der zweite Teil einer Doppelveröffentlichung, welche die Ergebnisse zur Untersuchung des Sturzflutereignisses im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs “Naturgefahren und Risiken in einer sich verändernden Welt” (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) der Universität Potsdam präsentiert. Während Teil 1 die meteorologischen und hydrologischen Ereignisse analysiert, fokussiert Teil 2 auf die geomorphologischen Prozesse und die verursachten Gebäudeschäden. Dazu wurden Ursprung und Ausmaß des während des Sturzflutereignisses mobilisierten und in den Ort getragenen Materials untersucht. Des Weiteren wurden zu 96 betroffenen Gebäuden Daten zum Schadensgrad sowie Prozess- und Gebäudecharakteristika aufgenommen und ausgewertet. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass bei der Betrachtung von Hochwassergefährdung die Berücksichtigung von Sturzfluten und ihrer speziellen Charakteristika, wie hoher Feststofftransport und sprunghaftes Verhalten insbesondere in bebautem Gelände, wesentlich ist, um effektive Schutzmaßnahmen ergreifen zu können.
N2 - A severe flash flood event hit the town of Braunsbach (Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) on the evening of May 29, 2016, heavily damaging and destroying several dozens of buildings. It was only one of several disastrous events in Central Europe caused by the low-pressure system "Elvira". The DFG Graduate School "Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) at the University of Potsdam investigated the Braunsbach flash flood as a recent showcase for catastrophic events triggered by severe weather. This contribution is part two of a back-to-back publication on the results of this storm event. While part 1 analyses the meteorological and hydrological situation, part 2 concentrates on the geomorphological aspects and damage to buildings. The study outlines the origin and amount of material that was mobilized and transported into the town by the flood, and analyses damage data collected for 96 affected buildings, describing the degree of impact, underlying processes, and building characteristics. Due to the potentially high sediment load of flash floods and their non-steady and non-uniform flow especially in built-up areas, the damaging processes differ from those of clear water floods. The results underline the need to consider flash floods and their specific behaviour in flood hazard assessments.
KW - flash flood
KW - flood risk
KW - damaging processes
KW - debris flow
KW - erosion
KW - landslides
KW - Braunsbach
KW - Sturzflut
KW - Hochwassergefährdung
KW - Schadensprozesse
KW - Erosion
KW - Hangrutschungen
Y1 - 2017
U6 - https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2017,3_2
SN - 1439-1783
VL - 61
IS - 3
SP - 163
EP - 175
PB - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde
CY - Koblenz
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Uhlemann, Steffi
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Merz, Bruno
T1 - A quality assessment framework for natural hazard event documentation: application to trans-basin flood reports in Germany
JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Y1 - 2014
U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-189-2014
SN - 1561-8633
VL - 14
IS - 2
SP - 189
EP - 208
PB - Copernicus
CY - Göttingen
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Pisi, Sebastian
T1 - Entwicklungn der technischen Systeme und der Organisaton in der Warnkette seit 2002
JF - Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bewährungsprobe für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland
Y1 - 2015
SN - 978-3-933181-62-6
SP - 123
EP - 132
PB - Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge
CY - Bonn
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Pisi, Sebastian
T1 - Vorhersagen und Warnungen im Mai / Juni 2013
JF - Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bewährungsprobe für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland
Y1 - 2015
SN - 978-3-933181-62-6
SP - 132
EP - 137
PB - Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge
CY - Bonn
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Pech, Ina
T1 - Risikovorsorge und Wiederaufbau
JF - Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bewährungsprobe für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland
Y1 - 2015
SN - 978-3-933181-62-6
SP - 170
EP - 183
PB - Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge
CY - Bonn
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Otto, Antje
A1 - Pisi, Sebastian
A1 - Petrow, Theresia
A1 - Kreibich, Heidi
A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian
A1 - Schröter, Kai
A1 - Kienzler, Sarah
A1 - Müller, Meike
T1 - Schlussfolgerungen und Empfehlungen
JF - Das Hochwasser im Juni 2013 : Bewährungsprobe für das Hochwasserrisikomanagement in Deutschland
Y1 - 2015
SN - 978-3-933181-62-6
SP - 184
EP - 196
PB - Deutsches Komitee Katastrophenvorsorge
CY - Bonn
ER -
TY - RPRT
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Otto, Antje
A1 - Haupt, Wolfgang
A1 - Eckersley, Peter
A1 - Kern, Kristine
A1 - Ullrich, Susann
A1 - Hautz, Timo
A1 - Rocker, Philipp
A1 - Schulz, Rabea
A1 - Sausen, Hannah
A1 - Dillenardt, Lisa
A1 - Rose, Claudia
A1 - Schmidt, Katja
A1 - Huber, Bettina
A1 - Sterzel, Till
A1 - Marken, Marieke
A1 - Miechielsen, Milena
ED - Otto, Antje
ED - Thieken, Annegret
T1 - Urbane Resilienz gegenüber extremen Wetterereignissen
T1 - Urban resilience to extreme weather events
BT - Gemeinsamer Verbundabschlussbericht des Forschungsprojektes ExTrass
BT - Joint final report of the research project ExTrass
N2 - Aufgrund der hohen Konzentration von Bevölkerung, ökonomischen Werten und Infrastrukturen können Städte stark von extremen Wetterereignissen getroffen werden. Insbesondere Hitzewellen und Überflutungen in Folge von Starkregen verursachen in Städten immense gesundheitliche und finanzielle Schäden. Um Schäden zu verringern oder gar zu vermeiden, ist es notwendig, entsprechende Vorsorge- und Klimaanpassungsmaßnahmen zu implementieren.
Im Projekt „Urbane Resilienz gegenüber extremen Wetterereignissen – Typologien und Transfer von Anpassungsstrategien in kleinen Großstädten und Mittelstädten” (ExTrass) lag der Fokus auf den beiden extremen Wetterereignissen Hitze und Starkregen sowie auf kleineren Großstädten (100.000 bis 500.000 Einwohner:innen) und kreisfreien Mittelstädten mit mehr als 50.000 Einwohner:innen. Im Projekt wurde die Stärkung der Klimaresilienz als Verbesserung der Fähigkeiten von Städten, aus vergangenen Ereignissen zu lernen sowie sich an antizipierte Gefahren anzupassen, verstanden. Klimaanpassung wurde demnach als ein Prozess aufgefasst, der durch die Umsetzung von potenziell schadensreduzierenden Maßnahmen beschreib- und operationalisierbar wird.
Das Projekt hatte zwei Ziele: Erstens sollte die Klimaresilienz in den drei Fallstudienstädten Potsdam, Remscheid und Würzburg messbar gestärkt werden. Zweitens sollten Transferpotenziale zwischen Groß- und Mittelstädten in Deutschland identifiziert und besser nutzbar gemacht werden, damit die Wirkung von Pilotvorhaben über die direkt involvierten Städte hinausgehen kann. Im Projekt standen folgende vier Leitfragen im Fokus:
• Wie verbreitet sind Klimaanpassungsaktivitäten in Großstädten und größeren kreisfreien Mittelstädten in Deutschland?
• Welche hemmenden und begünstigenden Faktoren beeinflussen die Klimaanpassung?
• Welche Maßnahmen der Klimaanpassung werden tatsächlich umgesetzt, und wie kann die Umsetzung verbessert werden? Was behindert?
• Inwiefern lassen sich Beispiele guter Praxis auf andere Städte übertragen, adaptieren oder weiterentwickeln?
Die Hauptergebnisse zu diesen Fragestellungen sind im vorliegenden Bericht zusammengefasst.
N2 - Due to the high concentration of population, economic assets and infrastructure, cities are severely affected by the effects of climate change. In particular, heat waves and flooding as a result of heavy rain cause immense health and financial damages in cities. In order to reduce or even avoid the effects of such extreme weather events, appropriate precautionary and climate adaptation measures must be implemented.
The project "Urban resilience to extreme weather events – typologies and transfer of adaptation strategies in small and medium-sized cities" (ExTrass) focused on the two extreme weather events heat and heavy rain as well as on smaller cities (100,000 to 500,000 inhabitants) and independent medium-sized towns with more than 50,000 inhabitants. Within the project, strengthening climate resilience was understood as improving the ability of cities to learn from past events and adapt to anticipated hazards. Accordingly, climate adaptation was seen as a process that can be described and operationalized through the implementation of potentially damage-reducing measures.
The project had two goals: The first goal was to measurably strengthen climate resilience in the three case study cities of Potsdam, Remscheid and Würzburg. The second goal was to identify and improve the transfer potential of climate adaptation measures between cities in Germany. The project focused on the following four key questions:
• How widespread are climate adaptation activities in large cities and larger independent medium-sized cities in Germany?
• Which inhibiting and enabling factors influence climate adaptation and how do they work?
• Which climate adaptation measures are actually being implemented and how can implementation be improved? What hinders implementation?
• To what extent can examples of good practice be transferred, adapted or further developed to other cities?
The main results of these questions have been summarized in the present report.
KW - Klimaanpassung
KW - Resilienz
KW - Hitze
KW - Starkregen
KW - Risikokommunikation
KW - Stadtplanung
KW - Begrünung
KW - climate adaptation
KW - resilience
KW - heat
KW - heavy rain
KW - risk communication
KW - urban planning
KW - greening
Y1 - 2022
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-555427
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna
A1 - Kreibich, Heidi
A1 - Müller, Meike
T1 - Compound inland flood events
BT - different pathways, different impacts and different coping options
JF - Natural hazards and earth system sciences : NHESS
N2 - Several severe flood events hit Germany in recent years, with events in 2013 and 2016 being the most destructive ones, although dynamics and flood processes were very different. While the 2013 event was a slowly rising widespread fluvial flood accompanied by some severe dike breaches, the events in 2016 were fast-onset pluvial floods, which resulted in surface water flooding in some places due to limited capacities of the drainage systems and in destructive flash floods with high sediment loads and clogging in others, particularly in small steep catchments. Hence, different pathways, i.e. different routes that the water takes to reach (and potentially damage) receptors, in our case private households, can be identified in both events. They can thus be regarded as spatially compound flood events or compound inland floods. This paper analyses how differently affected residents coped with these different flood types (fluvial and pluvial) and their impacts while accounting for the different pathways (river flood, dike breach, surface water flooding and flash flood) within the compound events. The analyses are based on two data sets with 1652 (for the 2013 flood) and 601 (for the 2016 flood) affected residents who were surveyed around 9 months after each flood, revealing little socio-economic differences - except for income - between the two samples. The four pathways showed significant differences with regard to their hydraulic and financial impacts, recovery, warning processes, and coping and adaptive behaviour. There are just small differences with regard to perceived self-efficacy and responsibility, offering entry points for tailored risk communication and support to improve property-level adaptation.
Y1 - 2022
U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-165-2022
SN - 1561-8633
SN - 1684-9981
VL - 22
IS - 1
SP - 165
EP - 185
PB - Copernicus
CY - Göttingen
ER -
TY - INPR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Mariani, S.
A1 - Longfield, S.
A1 - Vanneuville, W.
T1 - Preface: Flood resilient communities - managing the consequences of flooding
T2 - Natural hazards and earth system sciences
Y1 - 2014
U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-33-2014
SN - 1561-8633
VL - 14
IS - 1
SP - 33
EP - 39
PB - Copernicus
CY - Göttingen
ER -
TY - GEN
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Kienzler, Sarah
A1 - Kreibich, Heidi
A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian
A1 - Kunz, Michael
A1 - Mühr, Bernhard
A1 - Müller, Meike
A1 - Otto, Antje
A1 - Petrow, Theresia
A1 - Pisi, Sebastian
A1 - Schröter, Kai
T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013
N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.
T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 294
KW - August 2002 flood
KW - Central Europe
KW - Floods Directive
KW - June 2013 flood
KW - governance
KW - risk management cycle
Y1 - 2016
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-100600
SN - 1866-8372
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Kienzler, Sarah
A1 - Kreibich, Heidi
A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian
A1 - Kunz, Michael
A1 - Mühr, Bernhard
A1 - Müller, Meike
A1 - Otto, Antje
A1 - Petrow, Theresia
A1 - Pisi, Sebastian
A1 - Schröter, Kai
T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013
JF - Ecology and society : E&S ; a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability
N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of €6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of €11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.
KW - August 2002 flood
KW - Central Europe
KW - Floods Directive
KW - governance
KW - June 2013 flood
KW - risk management cycle
Y1 - 2016
U6 - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08547-210251
SN - 1708-3087
SN - 1195-5449
VL - 21
IS - 2
PB - Resilience Alliance
CY - Wolfville, NS
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Kienzler, Sarah
A1 - Kreibich, Heidi
A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian
A1 - Kunz, Michael
A1 - Muehr, Bernhard
A1 - Mueller, Meike
A1 - Otto, Antje
A1 - Petrow, Theresia
A1 - Pisi, Sebastian
A1 - Schroeter, Kai
T1 - Review of the flood risk management system in Germany after the major flood in 2013
JF - Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability
N2 - Widespread flooding in June 2013 caused damage costs of (sic)6 to 8 billion in Germany, and awoke many memories of the floods in August 2002, which resulted in total damage of (sic)11.6 billion and hence was the most expensive natural hazard event in Germany up to now. The event of 2002 does, however, also mark a reorientation toward an integrated flood risk management system in Germany. Therefore, the flood of 2013 offered the opportunity to review how the measures that politics, administration, and civil society have implemented since 2002 helped to cope with the flood and what still needs to be done to achieve effective and more integrated flood risk management. The review highlights considerable improvements on many levels, in particular (1) an increased consideration of flood hazards in spatial planning and urban development, (2) comprehensive property-level mitigation and preparedness measures, (3) more effective flood warnings and improved coordination of disaster response, and (4) a more targeted maintenance of flood defense systems. In 2013, this led to more effective flood management and to a reduction of damage. Nevertheless, important aspects remain unclear and need to be clarified. This particularly holds for balanced and coordinated strategies for reducing and overcoming the impacts of flooding in large catchments, cross-border and interdisciplinary cooperation, the role of the general public in the different phases of flood risk management, as well as a transparent risk transfer system. Recurring flood events reveal that flood risk management is a continuous task. Hence, risk drivers, such as climate change, land-use changes, economic developments, or demographic change and the resultant risks must be investigated at regular intervals, and risk reduction strategies and processes must be reassessed as well as adapted and implemented in a dialogue with all stakeholders.
KW - August 2002 flood
KW - Central Europe
KW - Floods Directive
KW - governance
KW - June 2013 flood
KW - risk management cycle
Y1 - 2016
U6 - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08547-210251
SN - 1708-3087
VL - 21
SP - 8612
EP - 8614
PB - Resilience Alliance
CY - Wolfville
ER -
TY - RPRT
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Dierck, Julia
A1 - Dunst, Lea
A1 - Göpfert, Christian
A1 - Heidenreich, Anna
A1 - Hetz, Karen
A1 - Kern, Julia
A1 - Kern, Kristine
A1 - Lipp, Torsten
A1 - Lippert, Cordine
A1 - Meves, Monika
A1 - Niederhafner, Stefan
A1 - Otto, Antje
A1 - Rohrbacher, Christian
A1 - Schmidt, Katja
A1 - Strate, Leander
A1 - Stumpp, Inga
A1 - Walz, Ariane
T1 - Urbane Resilienz gegenüber extremen Wetterereignissen – Typologien und Transfer von Anpassungsstrategien in kleinen Großstädten und Mittelstädten (ExTrass)
BT - Verbundvorhaben „Zukunftsstadt“ (Definitionsprojekt)
N2 - Weltweit verursachen Städte etwa 70 % der Treibhausgasemissionen und sind daher wichtige Akteure im Klimaschutz bzw. eine wichtige Zielgruppe von Klimapolitiken. Gleichzeitig sind Städte besonders stark von möglichen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels betroffen: Insbesondere extreme Wetterereignisse wie Hitzewellen oder Starkregenereignisse mit Überflutungen verursachen in Städten hohe Sachschäden und wirken sich negativ auf die Gesundheit der städtischen Bevölkerung aus. Daher verfolgt das Projekt ExTrass das Ziel, die städtische Resilienz gegenüber extremen Wetterereignissen in enger Zusammenarbeit mit Stadtverwaltungen, Strukturen des Bevölkerungsschutzes und der Zivilgesellschaft zu stärken. Im Fokus stehen dabei (kreisfreie) Groß- und Mittelstädte mit 50.000 bis 500.000 Einwohnern, insbesondere die Fallstudienstädte Potsdam, Remscheid und Würzburg.
Der vorliegende Bericht beinhaltet die Ergebnisse der 14-monatigen Definitionsphase von ExTrass, in der vor allem die Abstimmung eines Arbeitsprogramms im Mittelpunkt stand, das in einem nachfolgenden dreijährigen Forschungsprojekt (F+E-Phase) gemeinsam von Wissenschaft und Praxispartnern umgesetzt werden soll. Begleitend wurde eine Bestandsaufnahme von Klimaanpassungs- und Klimaschutzstrategien/-plänen in 99 deutschen Groß- und Mittelstädten vorgenommen. Zudem wurden für Potsdam und Würzburg Pfadanalysen für die Klimapolitik durchgeführt. Darin wird insbesondere die Bedeutung von Schlüsselakteuren deutlich. Weiterhin wurden im Rahmen von Stakeholder-Workshops Anpassungsherausforderungen und aktuelle Handlungsbedarfe in den Fallstudienstädten identifiziert und Lösungsansätze erarbeitet, die in der F+E-Phase entwickelt und getestet werden sollen. Neben Maßnahmen auf gesamtstädtischer Ebene und auf Stadtteilebene wurden Maßnahmen angestrebt, die die Risikowahrnehmung, Vorsorge und Selbsthilfefähigkeit von Unternehmen und Bevölkerung stärken können. Daher wurde der Stand der Risikokommunikation in Deutschland für das Projekt aufgearbeitet und eine erste Evaluation von Risikokommunikationswerkzeugen durchgeführt. Der Bericht endet mit einer Kurzfassung des Arbeitsprogramms 2018-2021.
N2 - Cities are responsible for around 70 % of the global greenhouse gas emissions and are hence important for climate mitigation; consequently they are a crucial target group of climate policies. At the same time, cities are also severely affected by potential impacts of climate change: extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy precipitation (pluvial floods) cause high economic losses in urban areas and have adverse effects on the health of the urban population. Therefore, the project ExTrass is aimed at measurably enhancing cities’ resilience against extreme weather events jointly with representatives of urban administrations, disaster assistance and civil society. The project focusses on small metropolises and medium-sized cities with 50,000 to 500,000 inhabitants, in particular on the case study cities of Potsdam, Remscheid and Würzburg.
The report summarizes the results of a 14-month definition phase whose main purpose was to define the research program of the successive 3-year-R+D-project, to be implemented jointly by researchers and practitioners. In addition, an inventory of climate change adaptation and climate mitigation strategies and plans of 99 German metropolises and medium-sized cities was created. Moreover, an in-depth analysis of the pathways of climate policies in the cities of Potsdam and Würzburg was conducted, which particularly revealed the relevance of key personalities. Furthermore, current challenges in climate adaptation and needs for action were identified during stakeholder workshops in the case study cities. In addition, possible solutions were discussed which will be implemented and tested during the R+D-project. Besides measures on the city level and on the level of urban districts, options that improve risk awareness, preparedness and coping capacities of enterprises and residents are strived for. Thus the state-of-the-art of risk communication in Germany was reviewed for the project and a first evaluation of a serious game was performed. The report ends with a brief outline of the work program 2018-2021.
KW - Klimaanpassung
KW - Klimaschutz
KW - Pfadanalysen
KW - Stadtentwicklung
KW - Hitze
KW - Starkregen
KW - Risikokommunikation
KW - Potsdam
KW - Würzburg
KW - Deutschland
KW - Climate Adaptation
KW - Climate Mitigation
KW - analysis of pathways
KW - urban development
KW - heat
KW - pluvial flooding
KW - risk communication
KW - city of Potsdam
KW - city of Wuerzburg
KW - Germany
Y1 - 2018
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-416067
ER -
TY - GEN
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Cammerer, Holger
A1 - Dobler, Christian
A1 - Lammel, Johannes
A1 - Schöberl, Fritz
T1 - Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies
BT - a case study from Tyrol, Austria
T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe
N2 - Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses-with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.
T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 910
KW - flood risk
KW - scenarios
KW - adaptation to climate change
KW - hazard
KW - vulnerability
KW - lech catchment
Y1 - 2020
U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-432282
SN - 1866-8372
IS - 910
ER -
TY - JOUR
A1 - Thieken, Annegret
A1 - Cammerer, Holger
A1 - Dobler, Christian
A1 - Lammel, Johannes
A1 - Schoeberl, Fritz
T1 - Estimating changes in flood risks and benefits of non-structural adaptation strategies - a case study from Tyrol, Austria
JF - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change
N2 - Flood damage has increased significantly and is expected to rise further in many parts of the world. For assessing potential changes in flood risk, this paper presents an integrated model chain quantifying flood hazards and losses while considering climate and land use changes. In the case study region, risk estimates for the present and the near future illustrate that changes in flood risk by 2030 are relatively low compared to historic periods. While the impact of climate change on the flood hazard and risk by 2030 is slight or negligible, strong urbanisation associated with economic growth contributes to a remarkable increase in flood risk. Therefore, it is recommended to frequently consider land use scenarios and economic developments when assessing future flood risks. Further, an adapted and sustainable risk management is necessary to encounter rising flood losses, in which non-structural measures are becoming more and more important. The case study demonstrates that adaptation by non-structural measures such as stricter land use regulations or enhancement of private precaution is capable of reducing flood risk by around 30 %. Ignoring flood risks, in contrast, always leads to further increasing losses-with our assumptions by 17 %. These findings underline that private precaution and land use regulation could be taken into account as low cost adaptation strategies to global climate change in many flood prone areas. Since such measures reduce flood risk regardless of climate or land use changes, they can also be recommended as no-regret measures.
KW - Flood risk
KW - Scenarios
KW - Adaptation to climate change
KW - Hazard
KW - Vulnerability
KW - Lech catchment
Y1 - 2016
U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-014-9602-3
SN - 1381-2386
SN - 1573-1596
VL - 21
SP - 343
EP - 376
PB - Springer
CY - Dordrecht
ER -