TY - GEN A1 - Ozturk, Ugur A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Behling, Robert A1 - Rößner, Sigrid A1 - Andreani, Louis A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - How robust are landslide susceptibility estimates? T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Much of contemporary landslide research is concerned with predicting and mapping susceptibility to slope failure. Many studies rely on generalised linear models with environmental predictors that are trained with data collected from within and outside of the margins of mapped landslides. Whether and how the performance of these models depends on sample size, location, or time remains largely untested. We address this question by exploring the sensitivity of a multivariate logistic regression-one of the most widely used susceptibility models-to data sampled from different portions of landslides in two independent inventories (i.e. a historic and a multi-temporal) covering parts of the eastern rim of the Fergana Basin, Kyrgyzstan. We find that considering only areas on lower parts of landslides, and hence most likely their deposits, can improve the model performance by >10% over the reference case that uses the entire landslide areas, especially for landslides of intermediate size. Hence, using landslide toe areas may suffice for this particular model and come in useful where landslide scars are vague or hidden in this part of Central Asia. The model performance marginally varied after progressively updating and adding more landslides data through time. We conclude that landslide susceptibility estimates for the study area remain largely insensitive to changes in data over about a decade. Spatial or temporal stratified sampling contributes only minor variations to model performance. Our findings call for more extensive testing of the concept of dynamic susceptibility and its interpretation in data-driven models, especially within the broader framework of landslide risk assessment under environmental and land-use change. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1346 KW - Landslide susceptibility KW - logistic regression KW - Southern Kyrgyzstan KW - Landslide inventory KW - remote sensing Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-541980 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ozturk, Ugur A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Behling, Robert A1 - Rößner, Sigrid A1 - Andreani, Louis A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - How robust are landslide susceptibility estimates? JF - Landslides N2 - Much of contemporary landslide research is concerned with predicting and mapping susceptibility to slope failure. Many studies rely on generalised linear models with environmental predictors that are trained with data collected from within and outside of the margins of mapped landslides. Whether and how the performance of these models depends on sample size, location, or time remains largely untested. We address this question by exploring the sensitivity of a multivariate logistic regression-one of the most widely used susceptibility models-to data sampled from different portions of landslides in two independent inventories (i.e. a historic and a multi-temporal) covering parts of the eastern rim of the Fergana Basin, Kyrgyzstan. We find that considering only areas on lower parts of landslides, and hence most likely their deposits, can improve the model performance by >10% over the reference case that uses the entire landslide areas, especially for landslides of intermediate size. Hence, using landslide toe areas may suffice for this particular model and come in useful where landslide scars are vague or hidden in this part of Central Asia. The model performance marginally varied after progressively updating and adding more landslides data through time. We conclude that landslide susceptibility estimates for the study area remain largely insensitive to changes in data over about a decade. Spatial or temporal stratified sampling contributes only minor variations to model performance. Our findings call for more extensive testing of the concept of dynamic susceptibility and its interpretation in data-driven models, especially within the broader framework of landslide risk assessment under environmental and land-use change. KW - Landslide susceptibility KW - Logistic regression KW - Southern Kyrgyzstan KW - Landslide inventory KW - Remote sensing Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-020-01485-5 SN - 1612-510X SN - 1612-5118 VL - 18 IS - 2 SP - 681 EP - 695 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Ozturk, Ugur A1 - Riemer, Adrian A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Roezer, Viktor A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Die Sturzflut von Braunsbach am 29. Mai 2016 – Entstehung, Ablauf und Schäden eines „Jahrhundertereignisses“ T1 - The Braunsbach Flashflood of Mai 29th, 2016-Origin, Pathways and Impacts of an Extreme Hydro-Meteorological Event BT - Teil 2: Geomorphologische Prozesse und Schadensanalyse BT - Part 2: Geomorphological Processes and Damage Analysis JF - Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung N2 - Am Abend des 29. Mai 2016 wurde der Ort Braunsbach im Landkreis Schwäbisch-Hall (Baden-Württemberg) von einer Sturzflut getroffen, bei der mehrere Häuser stark beschädigt oder zerstört wurden. Die Sturzflut war eine der Unwetterfolgen, die im Frühsommer 2016 vom Tiefdruckgebiet Elvira ausgelöst wurden. Der vorliegende Bericht ist der zweite Teil einer Doppelveröffentlichung, welche die Ergebnisse zur Untersuchung des Sturzflutereignisses im Rahmen des DFG-Graduiertenkollegs “Naturgefahren und Risiken in einer sich verändernden Welt” (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) der Universität Potsdam präsentiert. Während Teil 1 die meteorologischen und hydrologischen Ereignisse analysiert, fokussiert Teil 2 auf die geomorphologischen Prozesse und die verursachten Gebäudeschäden. Dazu wurden Ursprung und Ausmaß des während des Sturzflutereignisses mobilisierten und in den Ort getragenen Materials untersucht. Des Weiteren wurden zu 96 betroffenen Gebäuden Daten zum Schadensgrad sowie Prozess- und Gebäudecharakteristika aufgenommen und ausgewertet. Die Untersuchungen zeigen, dass bei der Betrachtung von Hochwassergefährdung die Berücksichtigung von Sturzfluten und ihrer speziellen Charakteristika, wie hoher Feststofftransport und sprunghaftes Verhalten insbesondere in bebautem Gelände, wesentlich ist, um effektive Schutzmaßnahmen ergreifen zu können. N2 - A severe flash flood event hit the town of Braunsbach (Baden-Wurttemberg, Germany) on the evening of May 29, 2016, heavily damaging and destroying several dozens of buildings. It was only one of several disastrous events in Central Europe caused by the low-pressure system "Elvira". The DFG Graduate School "Natural hazards and risks in a changing world" (NatRiskChange, GRK 2043/1) at the University of Potsdam investigated the Braunsbach flash flood as a recent showcase for catastrophic events triggered by severe weather. This contribution is part two of a back-to-back publication on the results of this storm event. While part 1 analyses the meteorological and hydrological situation, part 2 concentrates on the geomorphological aspects and damage to buildings. The study outlines the origin and amount of material that was mobilized and transported into the town by the flood, and analyses damage data collected for 96 affected buildings, describing the degree of impact, underlying processes, and building characteristics. Due to the potentially high sediment load of flash floods and their non-steady and non-uniform flow especially in built-up areas, the damaging processes differ from those of clear water floods. The results underline the need to consider flash floods and their specific behaviour in flood hazard assessments. KW - flash flood KW - flood risk KW - damaging processes KW - debris flow KW - erosion KW - landslides KW - Braunsbach KW - Sturzflut KW - Hochwassergefährdung KW - Schadensprozesse KW - Erosion KW - Hangrutschungen Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5675/HyWa_2017,3_2 SN - 1439-1783 VL - 61 IS - 3 SP - 163 EP - 175 PB - Bundesanst. für Gewässerkunde CY - Koblenz ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ozturk, Ugur A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto A1 - Crisologo, Irene A1 - Riemer, Adrian A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Vogel, Kristin A1 - Andres Lopez-Tarazon, Jose A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Rare flash floods and debris flows in southern Germany JF - The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man N2 - Flash floods and debris flows are iconic hazards inmountainous regions with steep relief, high rainfall intensities, rapid snowmelt events, and abundant sediments. The cuesta landscapes of southern Germany hardly come to mind when dealing with such hazards. A series of heavy rainstorms dumping up to 140mm in 2 h caused destructive flash floods and debris flows in May 2016. The most severe damage occurred in the Braunsbach municipality, which was partly buried by 42,000 m(3) of boulders, gravel, mud, and anthropogenic debris from the small catchment of Orlacher Bach (similar to 6 km(2)). We analysed this event by combining rainfall patterns, geological conditions, and geomorphic impacts to estimate an average sediment yield of 14,000 t/km(2) that mostly (similar to 95%) came from some 50 riparian landslides and channel-bed incision of similar to 2 m. This specific sediment yield ranks among the top 20% globally, while the intensity-duration curve of the rainstormis similarly in the upper percentile range of storms that had triggered landslides. Compared to similar-sized catchments in the greater region hit by the rainstorms, we find that the Orlacher Bach is above the 95th percentile in terms of steepness, storm-rainfall intensity, and topographic curvatures. The flash flood transported a sediment volume equal to as much as 20-40% of the Pleistocene sediment volume stored in the Orlacher Bach fan, andmay have had several predecessors in the Holocene. River control structures from 1903 and records of a debris flow in the 1920s in a nearby catchment indicate that the local inhabitants may have been aware of the debris-flow hazards earlier. Such recurring and destructive events elude flood-hazard appraisals in humid landscapes of gentle relief, and broaden mechanistic views of how landslides and debris flows contribute to shaping small and deeply cut tributaries in the southern Germany cuesta landscape. KW - Flash flood KW - Debris flow KW - Rainfall-triggered landslide KW - Hazard KW - Germany Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.01.172 SN - 0048-9697 SN - 1879-1026 VL - 626 SP - 941 EP - 952 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ozturk, Ugur A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - Saito, H. A1 - Agarwa, Ankit A1 - Grossman, M. J. A1 - Zaiki, M. A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - Complex networks for tracking extreme rainfall during typhoons JF - Chaos : an interdisciplinary journal of nonlinear science N2 - Reconciling the paths of extreme rainfall with those of typhoons remains difficult despite advanced forecasting techniques. We use complex networks defined by a nonlinear synchronization measure termed event synchronization to track extreme rainfall over the Japanese islands. Directed networks objectively record patterns of heavy rain brought by frontal storms and typhoons but mask out contributions of local convective storms. We propose a radial rank method to show that paths of extreme rainfall in the typhoon season (August-November, ASON) follow the overall southwest-northeast motion of typhoons and mean rainfall gradient of Japan. The associated eye-of-the-typhoon tracks deviate notably and may thus distort estimates of heavy typhoon rainfall. We mainly found that the lower spread of rainfall tracks in ASON may enable better hindcasting than for westerly-fed frontal storms in June and July. Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5004480 SN - 1054-1500 SN - 1089-7682 VL - 28 IS - 7 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Melville ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Agarwal, Ankit A1 - Boessenkool, Berry A1 - Crisologo, Irene A1 - Fischer, Madlen A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Koehn-Reich, Lisei A1 - Andres Lopez-Tarazon, Jose A1 - Moran, Thomas A1 - Ozturk, Ugur A1 - Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian A1 - Wendi, Dadiyorto T1 - Forensic hydro-meteorological analysis of an extreme flash flood BT - the 2016-05-29 event in Braunsbach, SW Germany JF - The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man N2 - The flash-flood in Braunsbach in the north-eastern part of Baden-Wuerttemberg/Germany was a particularly strong and concise event which took place during the floods in southern Germany at the end of May/early June 2016. This article presents a detailed analysis of the hydro-meteorological forcing and the hydrological consequences of this event. A specific approach, the "forensic hydrological analysis" was followed in order to include and combine retrospectively a variety of data from different disciplines. Such an approach investigates the origins, mechanisms and course of such natural events if possible in a "near real time" mode, in order to follow the most recent traces of the event. The results show that it was a very rare rainfall event with extreme intensities which, in combination with catchment properties, led to extreme runoff plus severe geomorphological hazards, i.e. great debris flows, which together resulted in immense damage in this small rural town Braunsbach. It was definitely a record-breaking event and greatly exceeded existing design guidelines for extreme flood discharge for this region, i.e. by a factor of about 10. Being such a rare or even unique event, it is not reliably feasible to put it into a crisp probabilistic context. However, one can conclude that a return period clearly above 100 years can be assigned for all event components: rainfall, peak discharge and sediment transport. Due to the complex and interacting processes, no single flood cause or reason for the very high damage can be identified, since only the interplay and the cascading characteristics of those led to such an event. The roles of different human activities on the origin and/or intensification of such an extreme event are finally discussed. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - Flash flood analysis KW - Forensic disaster analysis KW - Radar rainfall data KW - Extreme discharge data KW - Extreme event Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.02.241 SN - 0048-9697 SN - 1879-1026 VL - 630 SP - 977 EP - 991 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ozturk, Ugur A1 - Malik, Nishant A1 - Cheung, Kevin A1 - Marwan, Norbert A1 - Kurths, Jürgen T1 - A network-based comparative study of extreme tropical and frontal storm rainfall over Japan JF - Climate dynamics : observational, theoretical and computational research on the climate system N2 - Frequent and intense rainfall events demand innovative techniques to better predict the extreme rainfall dynamics. This task requires essentially the assessment of the basic types of atmospheric processes that trigger extreme rainfall, and then to examine the differences between those processes, which may help to identify key patterns to improve predictive algorithms. We employ tools from network theory to compare the spatial features of extreme rainfall over the Japanese archipelago and surrounding areas caused by two atmospheric processes: the Baiu front, which occurs mainly in June and July (JJ), and the tropical storms from August to November (ASON). We infer from complex networks of satellite-derived rainfall data, which are based on the nonlinear correlation measure of event synchronization. We compare the spatial scales involved in both systems and identify different regions which receive rainfall due to the large spatial scale of the Baiu and tropical storm systems. We observed that the spatial scales involved in the Baiu driven rainfall extremes, including the synoptic processes behind the frontal development, are larger than tropical storms, which even have long tracks during extratropical transitions. We further delineate regions of coherent rainfall during the two seasons based on network communities, identifying the horizontal (east-west) rainfall bands during JJ over the Japanese archipelago, while during ASON these bands align with the island arc of Japan. KW - Extreme rainfall KW - Baiu KW - Tropical storms KW - Event synchronization KW - Complex networks Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4597-1 SN - 0930-7575 SN - 1432-0894 VL - 53 IS - 1-2 SP - 521 EP - 532 PB - Springer CY - New York ER -