TY  - JOUR
A1  - De Frenne, Pieter
A1  - Rodriguez-Sanchez, Francisco
A1  - Coomes, David Anthony
A1  - Bäten, Lander
A1  - Versträten, Gorik
A1  - Vellend, Mark
A1  - Bernhardt-Römermann, Markus
A1  - Brown, Carissa D.
A1  - Brunet, Jörg
A1  - Cornelis, Johnny
A1  - Decocq, Guillaume M.
A1  - Dierschke, Hartmut
A1  - Eriksson, Ove
A1  - Gilliam, Frank S.
A1  - Hedl, Radim
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Hermy, Martin
A1  - Hommel, Patrick
A1  - Jenkins, Michael A.
A1  - Kelly, Daniel L.
A1  - Kirby, Keith J.
A1  - Mitchell, Fraser J. G.
A1  - Naaf, Tobias
A1  - Newman, Miles
A1  - Peterken, George
A1  - Petrik, Petr
A1  - Schultz, Jan
A1  - Sonnier, Gregory
A1  - Van Calster, Hans
A1  - Waller, Donald M.
A1  - Walther, Gian-Reto
A1  - White, Peter S.
A1  - Woods, Kerry D.
A1  - Wulf, Monika
A1  - Graae, Bente Jessen
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
T1  - Microclimate moderates plant responses to macroclimate warming
JF  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
N2  - Recent global warming is acting across marine, freshwater, and terrestrial ecosystems to favor species adapted to warmer conditions and/or reduce the abundance of cold-adapted organisms (i.e., "thermophilization" of communities). Lack of community responses to increased temperature, however, has also been reported for several taxa and regions, suggesting that "climatic lags" may be frequent. Here we show that microclimatic effects brought about by forest canopy closure can buffer biotic responses to macroclimate warming, thus explaining an apparent climatic lag. Using data from 1,409 vegetation plots in European and North American temperate forests, each surveyed at least twice over an interval of 12-67 y, we document significant thermophilization of ground-layer plant communities. These changes reflect concurrent declines in species adapted to cooler conditions and increases in species adapted to warmer conditions. However, thermophilization, particularly the increase of warm-adapted species, is attenuated in forests whose canopies have become denser, probably reflecting cooler growing-season ground temperatures via increased shading. As standing stocks of trees have increased in many temperate forests in recent decades, local microclimatic effects may commonly be moderating the impacts of macroclimate warming on forest understories. Conversely, increases in harvesting woody biomass-e.g., for bioenergy-may open forest canopies and accelerate thermophilization of temperate forest biodiversity.
KW  - climate change
KW  - forest management
KW  - understory
KW  - climatic debt
KW  - range shifts
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1311190110
SN  - 0027-8424
VL  - 110
IS  - 46
SP  - 18561
EP  - 18565
PB  - National Acad. of Sciences
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Di Capua, Giorgia
A1  - Coumou, Dim
T1  - Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation
JF  - Environmental research letters
N2  - Strong waves in the mid-latitude circulation have been linked to extreme surface weather and thus changes in waviness could have serious consequences for society. Several theories have been proposed which could alter waviness, including tropical sea surface temperature anomalies or rapid climate change in the Arctic. However, so far it remains unclear whether any changes in waviness have actually occurred. Here we propose a novel meandering index which captures the maximum waviness in geopotential height contours at any given day, using all information of the full spatial position of each contour. Data are analysed on different time scale (from daily to 11 day running means) and both on hemispheric and regional scales. Using quantile regressions, we analyse how seasonal distributions of this index have changed over 1979-2015. The most robust changes are detected for autumn which has seen a pronounced increase in strongly meandering patterns at the hemispheric level as well as over the Eurasian sector. In summer for both the hemisphere and the Eurasian sector, significant downward trends in meandering are detected on daily timescales which is consistent with the recently reported decrease in summer storm track activity. The American sector shows the strongest increase in meandering in the warm season: in particular for 11 day running mean data, indicating enhanced amplitudes of quasi-stationary waves. Our findings have implications for both the occurrence of recent cold spells and persistent heat waves in the mid-latitudes.
KW  - Rossby waves
KW  - climate change
KW  - extreme events
KW  - mid-latitudes flow
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 11
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Drewes, Julia
A1  - Moreiras, Stella
A1  - Korup, Oliver
T1  - Permafrost activity and atmospheric warming in the Argentinian Andes
JF  - Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology
N2  - Rock glaciers are permafrost or glacial landforms of debris and ice that deform under the influence of gravity. Recent estimates hold that, in the semiarid Chilean Andes for example, active rock glaciers store more water than glaciers. However, little is known about how many rock glaciers might decay because of global warming and how much this decay might contribute to water and sediment release. We investigated an inventory of >6500 rock glaciers in the Argentinian Andes, spanning the climatic gradient from the Desert Andes to cold-temperate Tierra del Fuego. We used active rock glaciers as a diagnostic of permafrost, assuming that the toes mark the 0 degrees C isotherm in climate scenarios for the twenty-first century and their impact on freezing conditions near the rock glacier toes. We find that, under future worst case warming, up to 95% of rock glaciers in the southern Desert Andes and in the Central Andes will rest in areas above 0 degrees C and that this freezing level might move up more than twice as much (similar to 500 m) as during the entire Holocene (similar to 200 m). Many active rock glaciers are already well below the current freezing level and exemplify how local controls may confound regional prognoses. A Bayesian Multifactor Analysis of Variance further shows that only in the Central Andes are the toes of active rock glaciers credibly higher than those of inactive ones. Elsewhere in the Andes, active and inactive rock glaciers occupy indistinguishable elevation bands, regardless of aspect, the formation mechanism, or shape of rock glaciers. The state of rock glacier activity predicts differences in elevations of toes to 140 m at best so that regional inference of the distribution of discontinuous permafrost from rock-glacier toes cannot be more accurate than this in the Argentinian Andes. We conclude that the Central Andes-where rock glaciers are largest, cover the most area, and have a greater density than glaciers-is likely to experience the most widespread disturbance to the thermal regime of the twenty-first century. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KW  - rock glacier
KW  - Argentina
KW  - permafrost
KW  - climate change
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.09.005
SN  - 0169-555X
SN  - 1872-695X
VL  - 323
SP  - 13
EP  - 24
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Geiger, Tobias
A1  - Frieler, Katja
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - High-income does not protect against hurricane losses
JF  - Environmental research letters
N2  - Damage due to tropical cyclones accounts for more than 50% of all meteorologically-induced economic losses worldwide. Their nominal impact is projected to increase substantially as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. So far, historical losses due to tropical cyclones have been found to increase less than linearly with a nation's affected gross domestic product (GDP). Here we show that for the United States this scaling is caused by a sub-linear increase with affected population while relative losses scale super-linearly with per capita income. The finding is robust across a multitude of empirically derived damage models that link the storm's wind speed, exposed population, and per capita GDP to reported losses. The separation of both socio-economic predictors strongly affects the projection of potential future hurricane losses. Separating the effects of growth in population and per-capita income, per hurricane losses with respect to national GDP are projected to triple by the end of the century under unmitigated climate change, while they are estimated to decrease slightly without the separation.
KW  - climate change
KW  - tropical cyclones
KW  - damage
KW  - meteorological extremes
KW  - vulnerability
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 11
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Geyer, Juliane
A1  - Kiefer, Iris
A1  - Kreft, Stefan
A1  - Chavez, Veronica
A1  - Salafsky, Nick
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
A1  - Ibisch, Pierre L.
T1  - Classification of climate-change-induced stresses on biological diversity
JF  - Conservation biology : the journal of the Society for Conservation Biology
N2  - Conservation actions need to account for and be adapted to address changes that will occur under global climate change. The identification of stresses on biological diversity (as defined in the Convention on Biological Diversity) is key in the process of adaptive conservation management. We considered any impact of climate change on biological diversity a stress because such an effect represents a change (negative or positive) in key ecological attributes of an ecosystem or parts of it. We applied a systemic approach and a hierarchical framework in a comprehensive classification of stresses to biological diversity that are caused directly by global climate change. Through analyses of 20 conservation sites in 7 countries and a review of the literature, we identified climate-change-induced stresses. We grouped the identified stresses according to 3 levels of biological diversity: stresses that affect individuals and populations, stresses that affect biological communities, and stresses that affect ecosystem structure and function. For each stress category, we differentiated 3 hierarchical levels of stress: stress class (thematic grouping with the coarsest resolution, 8); general stresses (thematic groups of specific stresses, 21); and specific stresses (most detailed definition of stresses, 90). We also compiled an overview of effects of climate change on ecosystem services using the categories of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and 2 additional categories. Our classification may be used to identify key climate-change-related stresses to biological diversity and may assist in the development of appropriate conservation strategies. The classification is in list format, but it accounts for relations among climate-change-induced stresses.
KW  - adaptation of conservation strategies
KW  - adaptive management
KW  - climate change
KW  - conservation planning
KW  - conservation targets
KW  - hierarchical framework
KW  - threats to biological diversity
Y1  - 2011
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2011.01676.x
SN  - 0888-8892
VL  - 25
IS  - 4
SP  - 708
EP  - 715
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Malden
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Grimm-Seyfarth, Annegret
A1  - Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste
A1  - Gruber, Bernd
A1  - Henle, Klaus
T1  - Some like it hot
BT  - from individual to population responses of an arboreal arid-zone gecko to local and distant climate
JF  - Ecological monographs
N2  - Accumulating evidence has demonstrated considerable impact of climate change on biodiversity, with terrestrial ectotherms being particularly vulnerable. While climate-induced range shifts are often addressed in the literature, little is known about the underlying ecological responses at individual and population levels. Using a 30-yr monitoring study of the long-living nocturnal gecko Gehyra variegata in arid Australia, we determined the relative contribution of climatic factors acting locally (temperature, rainfall) or distantly (La Nina induced flooding) on ecological processes ranging from traits at the individual level (body condition, body growth) to the demography at population level (survival, sexual maturity, population sizes). We also investigated whether thermoregulatory activity during both active (night) and resting (daytime) periods of the day can explain these responses. Gehyra variegata responded to local and distant climatic effects. Both high temperatures and high water availability enhanced individual and demographic parameters. Moreover, the impact of water availability was scale independent as local rainfall and La Nina induced flooding compensated each other. When water availability was low, however, extremely high temperatures delayed body growth and sexual maturity while survival of individuals and population sizes remained stable. This suggests a trade-off with traits at the individual level that may potentially buffer the consequences of adverse climatic conditions at the population level. Moreover, hot temperatures did not impact nocturnal nor diurnal behavior. Instead, only cool temperatures induced diurnal thermoregulatory behavior with individuals moving to exposed hollow branches and even outside tree hollows for sun-basking during the day. Since diurnal behavioral thermoregulation likely induced costs on fitness, this could decrease performance at both individual and population level under cool temperatures. Our findings show that water availability rather than high temperature is the limiting factor in our focal population of G.variegata. In contrast to previous studies, we stress that drier rather than warmer conditions are expected to be detrimental for nocturnal desert reptiles. Identifying the actual limiting climatic factors at different scales and their functional interactions at different ecological levels is critical to be able to predict reliably future population dynamics and support conservation planning in arid ecosystems.
KW  - behavioral adaptation
KW  - body condition
KW  - body growth rate
KW  - climate change
KW  - El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
KW  - Gehyra variegata
KW  - population dynamics
KW  - population size
KW  - survival
KW  - thermoregulation
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1301
SN  - 0012-9615
SN  - 1557-7015
VL  - 88
IS  - 3
SP  - 336
EP  - 352
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Grimm-Seyfarth, Annegret
A1  - Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste
A1  - Henle, Klaus
T1  - Functional traits determine the different effects of prey, predators, and climatic extremes on desert reptiles
JF  - Ecosphere : the magazine of the International Ecology University
N2  - Terrestrial reptiles are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Their highest density and diversity can be found in hot drylands, ecosystems which demonstrate extreme climatic conditions. However, reptiles are not isolated systems but part of a large species assemblage with many trophic dependencies. While direct relations among climatic conditions, invertebrates, vegetation, or reptiles have already been explored, to our knowledge, species’ responses to direct and indirect pathways of multiple climatic and biotic factors and their interactions have rarely been examined comprehensively. We investigated direct and indirect effects of climatic and biotic parameters on the individual (body condition) and population level (occupancy) of eight abundant lizard species with different functional traits in an arid Australian lizard community using a 30‐yr multi‐trophic monitoring study. We used structural equation modeling to disentangle single and interactive effects. We then assessed whether species could be grouped into functional groups according to their functional traits and their responses to different parameters. We found that lizard species differed strongly in how they responded to climatic and biotic factors. However, the factors to which they responded seemed to be determined by their functional traits. While responses on body condition were determined by habitat, activity time, and prey, responses on occupancy were determined by habitat specialization, body size, and longevity. Our findings highlight the importance of indirect pathways through climatic and biotic interactions, which should be included into predictive models to increase accuracy when predicting species’ responses to climate change. Since one might never obtain all mechanistic pathways at the species level, we propose an approach of identifying relevant species traits that help grouping species into functional groups at different ecological levels, which could then be used for predictive modeling.
KW  - Australia
KW  - climate change
KW  - Gekkonidae
KW  - periodic flooding
KW  - Scincidae
KW  - species functional traits
KW  - species interactions
KW  - structural equation modeling
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2865
SN  - 2150-8925
VL  - 10
IS  - 9
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Guzman Arias, Diego Alejandro
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1  - Multi-driver ensemble to evaluate the water utility business interruption cost induced by hydrological drought risk scenarios in Brazil
JF  - Urban water journal
N2  - Climate change and increasing water demand in urban environments necessitate planning water utility companies' finances. Traditionally, methods to estimate the direct water utility business interruption costs (WUBIC) caused by droughts have not been clearly established. We propose a multi-driver assessment method. We project the water yield using a hydrological model driven by regional climate models under radiative forcing scenarios. We project water demand under stationary and non-stationary conditions to estimate drought severity and duration, which are linked with pricing policies recently adopted by the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company. The results showed water insecurity. The non-stationary trend imposed larger differences in the drought resilience financial gap, suggesting that the uncertainties of WUBIC derived from demand and climate models are greater than those associated with radiative forcing scenarios. As populations increase, proactively controlling demand is recommended to avoid or minimize reactive policy changes during future drought events, repeating recent financial impacts.
KW  - Business interruption cost
KW  - water utility company
KW  - hydrological
KW  - droughts
KW  - water security
KW  - urban water
KW  - climate change
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/1573062X.2022.2058564
SN  - 1573-062X
SN  - 1744-9006
PB  - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
CY  - Abingdon
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Guzman, Diego A.
A1  - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme
A1  - Mendiondo, Eduardo Mario
T1  - Multi-year index-based insurance for adapting Water Utility Companies to hydrological drought
BT  - case study of a water supply system of the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, Brazil
JF  - Water
N2  - The sustainability of water utility companies is threatened by non-stationary drivers, such as climate and anthropogenic changes. To cope with potential economic losses, instruments such as insurance are useful for planning scenarios and mitigating impacts, but data limitations and risk uncertainties affect premium estimation and, consequently, business sustainability. This research estimated the possible economic impacts of business interruption to the Sao Paulo Water Utility Company derived from hydrological drought and how this could be mitigated with an insurance scheme. Multi-year insurance (MYI) was proposed through a set of "change" drivers: the climate driver, through forcing the water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) hydrological tool; the anthropogenic driver, through water demand projections; and the economic driver, associated with recent water price policies adopted by the utility company during water scarcity periods. In our study case, the evaluated indices showed that MYI contracts that cover only longer droughts, regardless of the magnitude, offer better financial performance than contracts that cover all events (in terms of drought duration). Moreover, through MYI contracts, we demonstrate solvency for the insurance fund in the long term and an annual average actuarially fair premium close to the total expected revenue reduction.
KW  - multi-year insurance
KW  - climate change
KW  - hydrological drought
KW  - water
KW  - security and economy
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.3390/w12112954
SN  - 2073-4441
VL  - 12
IS  - 11
PB  - MDPI
CY  - Basel
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Han, Sungju
A1  - Kuhlicke, Christian
T1  - Barriers and drivers for mainstreaming nature-based solutions for flood risks
BT  - the case of South Korea
JF  - International journal of disaster risk science
N2  - Nature-based solutions (NBS) are seen as a promising adaptation measure that sustainably deals with diverse societal challenges, while simultaneously delivering multiple benefits. Nature-based solutions have been highlighted as a resilient and sustainable means of mitigating floods and other hazards globally. This study examined diverging conceptualizations of NBS, as well as the attitudinal (for example, emotions and beliefs) and contextual (for example, legal and political aspects) barriers and drivers of NBS for flood risks in South Korea. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 11 experts and focused on the topic of flood risk measures and NBS case studies. The analysis found 11 barriers and five drivers in the attitudinal domain, and 13 barriers and two drivers in the contextual domain. Most experts see direct monetary benefits as an important attitudinal factor for the public. Meanwhile, the cost-effectiveness of NBS and their capacity to cope with flood risks were deemed influential factors that could lead decision makers to opt for NBS. Among the contextual factors, insufficient systems to integrate NBS in practice and the ideologicalization of NBS policy were found to be peculiar barriers, which hinder consistent realization of initiatives and a long-term national plan for NBS. Understanding the barriers and drivers related to the mainstreaming of NBS is critical if we are to make the most of such solutions for society and nature. It is also essential that we have a shared definition, expectation, and vision of NBS.
KW  - climate change
KW  - flood risk management
KW  - nature-based solutions (NBS)
KW  - South Korea
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s13753-021-00372-4
SN  - 2095-0055
SN  - 2192-6395
VL  - 12
IS  - 5
SP  - 661
EP  - 672
PB  - Springer
CY  - New York
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hickmann, Thomas
A1  - Stehle, Fee
T1  - The Embeddedness of Urban Climate Politics in Multilevel Governance
BT  - a Case Study of South Africa’s Major Cities
JF  - The journal of environment & development : a review of international policy
N2  - Numerous scholars have lately highlighted the importance of cities in the global response to climate change. However, we still have little systematic knowledge on the evolution of urban climate politics in the Global South. In particular, we lack empirical studies that examine how local climate actions arise in political-administrative systems of developing and emerging economies. Therefore, this article adopts a multilevel governance perspective to explore the climate mitigation responses of three major cities in South Africa by looking at their vertical and horizontal integration in the wider governance framework. In the absence of a coherent national climate policy, Johannesburg, Cape Town, and Durban have developed distinct climate actions within their jurisdictions. In their effort to address climate change, transnational city networks have provided considerable technical support to these cities. Yet, substantial domestic political-economic obstacles hinder the three cities to develop a more ambitious stance on climate change.
KW  - climate change
KW  - developing and emerging economies
KW  - local climate policy making
KW  - multilevel governance
KW  - South Africa
KW  - transnational city networks
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496518819121
SN  - 1070-4965
SN  - 1552-5465
VL  - 28
IS  - 1
SP  - 54
EP  - 77
PB  - Sage Publ.
CY  - Thousand Oaks
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hickmann, Thomas
A1  - Widerberg, Oscar
A1  - Lederer, Markus
A1  - Pattberg, Philipp H.
T1  - The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat as an orchestrator in global climate policymaking
JF  - International review of administrative sciences : an international journal of comparative public administration
N2  - Scholars have recently devoted increasing attention to the role and function of international bureaucracies in global policymaking. Some of them contend that international public officials have gained significant political influence in various policy fields. Compared to other international bureaucracies, the political leeway of the Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has been considered rather limited. Due to the specific problem structure of the policy domain of climate change, national governments endowed this intergovernmental treaty secretariat with a relatively narrow mandate. However, this article argues that in the past few years, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat has gradually loosened its straitjacket and expanded its original spectrum of activity by engaging different sub-national and non-state actors into a policy dialogue using facilitative orchestration as a mode of governance. The present article explores the recent evolution of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Secretariat and investigates the way in which it initiates, guides, broadens and strengthens sub-national and non-state climate actions to achieve progress in the international climate negotiations. <br /> Points for practitioners <br /> The Secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has lately adopted new roles and functions in global climate policymaking. While previously seen as a rather technocratic body that, first and foremost, serves national governments, the Climate Secretariat increasingly interacts with sub-national governments, civil society organizations and private companies to push the global response to climate change forward. We contend that the Climate Secretariat can contribute to global climate policymaking by coordinating and steering the initiatives of non-nation-state actors towards coherence and good practice.
KW  - climate change
KW  - environmental policymaking
KW  - intergovernmental relations
KW  - international bureaucracies
KW  - sub-national and non-state actors
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1177/0020852319840425
SN  - 0020-8523
SN  - 1461-7226
VL  - 87
IS  - 1
SP  - 21
EP  - 38
PB  - Sage
CY  - Los Angeles, Calif. [u.a.]
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Huang, Xiaozhong
A1  - Peng, Wei
A1  - Rudaya, Natalia
A1  - Grimm, Eric C.
A1  - Chen, Xuemei
A1  - Cao, Xianyong
A1  - Zhang, Jun
A1  - Pan, Xiaoduo
A1  - Liu, Sisi
A1  - Chen, Chunzhu
A1  - Chen, Fahu
T1  - Holocene vegetation and climate dynamics in the Altai Mountains and Surrounding Areas
JF  - Geophysical research letters
N2  - A comprehensive understanding of the regional vegetation responses to long-term climate change will help to forecast Earth system dynamics. Based on a new well-dated pollen data set from Kanas Lake and a review on the published pollen records in and around the Altai Mountains, the regional vegetation dynamics and forcing mechanisms are discussed. In the Altai Mountains, the forest optimum occurred during 10-7ka for the upper forest zone and the tree line decline and/or ecological shifts were caused by climatic cooling from around 7ka. In the lower forest zone, the forest reached an optimum in the middle Holocene, and then increased openness of the forest, possibly caused by both climate cooling and human activities, took place in the late Holocene. In the lower basins or plains around the Altai Mountains, the development of protograssland or forest benefited from increasing humidity in the middle to late Holocene. Plain Language Summary In the Altai Mountains and surrounding area of central Asia, the previous studies of the Holocene paleovegetation and paleoclimate studies did not discuss the different ecological limiting factors for the vegetation in high mountains and low-elevation areas due to limited data. With accumulating fossil pollen data and surface pollen data, it is possible to understand better the geomorphological effect on the vegetation and discrepancies of vegetation/forest responses to large-scale climate forcing, and it is also possible to get reliable quantitative reconstructions of climate. Here our new pollen data and review on the published fossil pollen data will help us to look into the past climate change and vertical evolution of vegetation in this important area of the Northern Hemisphere. Based on our study, it can be concluded that the growth of taiga forest in the wetter areas may be promoted under a future warmer climate, while the forest in the relatively dry areas is liable to decline, and the different vegetation dynamics will contribute to future high-resolution coupled vegetation-climate model for Earth system modelling.
KW  - climate change
KW  - Kanas Lake
KW  - Altai Mountains
KW  - vegetation dynamics
KW  - taiga forest
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL078028
SN  - 0094-8276
SN  - 1944-8007
VL  - 45
IS  - 13
SP  - 6628
EP  - 6636
PB  - American Geophysical Union
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Huber, Robert
A1  - Rigling, Andreas
A1  - Bebi, Peter
A1  - Brand, Fridolin Simon
A1  - Briner, Simon
A1  - Buttler, Alexandre
A1  - Elkin, Che
A1  - Gillet, Francois
A1  - Gret-Regamey, Adrienne
A1  - Hirschi, Christian
A1  - Lischke, Heike
A1  - Scholz, Roland Werner
A1  - Seidl, Roman
A1  - Spiegelberger, Thomas
A1  - Walz, Ariane
A1  - Zimmermann, Willi
A1  - Bugmann, Harald
T1  - Sustainable land use in Mountain Regions under global change synthesis across scales and disciplines
JF  - Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability
N2  - Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS) for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1) more integrative approaches, (2) a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3) enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.
KW  - adaptive management
KW  - climate change
KW  - ecosystem services
KW  - experiments
KW  - interdisciplinary research
KW  - land-use change
KW  - modeling
KW  - transdisciplinary research
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05499-180336
SN  - 1708-3087
VL  - 18
IS  - 3
PB  - Resilience Alliance
CY  - Wolfville
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Huber, Veronika
A1  - Krummenauer, Linda
A1  - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina
A1  - Lange, Stefan
A1  - Gasparrini, Antonio
A1  - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria
A1  - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo
A1  - Frieler, Katja
T1  - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming
JF  - Environmental Research
N2  - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe.

Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability.

Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise.

Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities.
KW  - temperature-related mortality
KW  - climate change
KW  - Future projections
KW  - Germany
KW  - global mean temperature
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2020.109447
SN  - 0013-9351
SN  - 1096-0953
VL  - 186
SP  - 1
EP  - 10
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - San Diego, California
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Huggel, Christian
A1  - Clague, John J.
A1  - Korup, Oliver
T1  - Is climate change responsible for changing landslide activity in high mountains?
JF  - Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group
N2  - Climate change, manifested by an increase in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and by more intense rainstorms, is becoming more evident in many regions. An important consequence of these changes may be an increase in landslides in high mountains. More research, however, is necessary to detect changes in landslide magnitude and frequency related to contemporary climate, particularly in alpine regions hosting glaciers, permafrost, and snow. These regions not only are sensitive to changes in both temperature and precipitation, but are also areas in which landslides are ubiquitous even under a stable climate. We analyze a series of catastrophic slope failures that occurred in the mountains of Europe, the Americas, and the Caucasus since the end of the 1990s. We distinguish between rock and ice avalanches, debris flows from de-glaciated areas, and landslides that involve dynamic interactions with glacial and river processes. Analysis of these events indicates several important controls on slope stability in high mountains, including: the non-linear response of firn and ice to warming; three-dimensional warming of subsurface bedrock and its relation to site geology; de-glaciation accompanied by exposure of new sediment; and combined short-term effects of precipitation and temperature. Based on several case studies, we propose that the following mechanisms can significantly alter landslide magnitude and frequency, and thus hazard, under warming conditions: (1) positive feedbacks acting on mass movement processes that after an initial climatic stimulus may evolve independently of climate change; (2) threshold behavior and tipping points in geomorphic systems; (3) storage of sediment and ice involving important lag-time effects.
KW  - climate change
KW  - landslides
KW  - glaciers
KW  - permafrost
Y1  - 2012
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.2223
SN  - 0197-9337
VL  - 37
IS  - 1
SP  - 77
EP  - 91
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Imholt, Christian
A1  - Reil, Daniela
A1  - Eccard, Jana
A1  - Jacob, Daniela
A1  - Hempelmann, Nils
A1  - Jacob, Jens
T1  - Quantifying the past and future impact of climate on outbreak patterns of bank voles (Myodes glareolus)
JF  - Pest management science
N2  - BACKGROUND Central European outbreak populations of the bank vole (Myodes glareolus Schreber) are known to cause damage in forestry and to transmit the most common type of Hantavirus (Puumala virus, PUUV) to humans. A sound estimation of potential effects of future climate scenarios on population dynamics is a prerequisite for long-term management strategies. Historic abundance time series were used to identify the key weather conditions associated with bank vole abundance, and were extrapolated to future climate scenarios to derive potential long-term changes in bank vole abundance dynamics.
 RESULTS Classification and regression tree analysis revealed the most relevant weather parameters associated with high and low bank vole abundances. Summer temperatures 2 years prior to trapping had the highest impact on abundance fluctuation. Extrapolation of the identified parameters to future climate conditions revealed an increase in years with high vole abundance.
 CONCLUSION Key weather patterns associated with vole abundance reflect the importance of superabundant food supply through masting to the occurrence of bank vole outbreaks. Owing to changing climate, these outbreaks are predicted potentially to increase in frequency 3-4-fold by the end of this century. This may negatively affect damage patterns in forestry and the risk of human PUUV infection in the long term. (c) 2014 Society of Chemical Industry
KW  - climate change
KW  - population dynamics
KW  - bank vole
KW  - regression tree
KW  - outbreak
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/ps.3838
SN  - 1526-498X
SN  - 1526-4998
VL  - 71
IS  - 2
SP  - 166
EP  - 172
PB  - Wiley-Blackwell
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kahl, Sandra
A1  - Lenhard, Michael
A1  - Joshi, Jasmin Radha
T1  - Compensatory mechanisms to climate change in the widely distributed species Silene vulgaris
JF  - The journal of ecology
N2  - The adaptation of plants to future climatic conditions is crucial for their survival. Not surprisingly, phenotypic responses to climate change have already been observed in many plant populations. These responses may be due to evolutionary adaptive changes or phenotypic plasticity. Especially plant species with a wide geographic range are either expected to show genetic differentiation in response to differing climate conditions or to have a high phenotypic plasticity. We investigated phenotypic responses and plasticity as an estimate of the adaptive potential in the widespread species Silene vulgaris. In a greenhouse experiment, 25 European populations covering a geographic range from the Canary Islands to Sweden were exposed to three experimental precipitation and two temperature regimes mimicking a possible climate-change scenario for central Europe. We hypothesized that southern populations have a better performance under high temperature and drought conditions, as they are already adapted to a comparable environment. We found that our treatments significantly influenced the plants, but did not reveal a latitudinal difference in response to climate treatments for most plant traits. Only flower number showed a stronger plasticity in northern European populations (e.g. Swedish populations) where numbers decreased more drastically with increased temperature and decreased precipitation treatment. Synthesis. The significant treatment response in Silene vulgaris, independent of population origin - except for the number of flowers produced - suggests a high degree of universal phenotypic plasticity in this widely distributed species. This reflects the likely adaptation strategy of the species and forms the basis for a successful survival strategy during upcoming climatic changes. However, as flower number, a strongly fitness-related trait, decreased more strongly in northern populations under a climate-change scenario, there might be limits to adaptation even in this widespread, plastic species.
KW  - climate change
KW  - global change ecology
KW  - latitudinal gradient
KW  - local adaptation
KW  - phenotypic plasticity
KW  - plant performance
KW  - temperature increase
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.13133
SN  - 0022-0477
SN  - 1365-2745
VL  - 107
IS  - 4
SP  - 1918
EP  - 1930
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kahmen, Ansgar
A1  - Sachse, Dirk
A1  - Arndt, Stefan K.
A1  - Tu, Kevin P.
A1  - Farrington, Heraldo
A1  - Vitousek, Peter M.
A1  - Dawson, Todd E.
T1  - Cellulose delta O-18 is an index of leaf-to-air vapor pressure difference (VPD) in tropical plants
JF  - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
N2  - Cellulose in plants contains oxygen that derives in most cases from precipitation. Because the stable oxygen isotope composition, delta O-18, of precipitation is associated with environmental conditions, cellulose delta O-18 should be as well. However, plant physiological models using delta O-18 suggest that cellulose delta O-18 is influenced by a complex mix of both climatic and physiological drivers. This influence complicates the interpretation of cellulose delta O-18 values in a paleo-context. Here, we combined empirical data analyses with mechanistic model simulations to i) quantify the impacts that the primary climatic drivers humidity (e(a)) and air temperature (T-air) have on cellulose delta O-18 values in different tropical ecosystems and ii) determine which environmental signal is dominating cellulose delta O-18 values. Our results revealed that e(a) and T-air equally influence cellulose delta O-18 values and that distinguishing which of these factors dominates the delta O-18 values of cellulose cannot be accomplished in the absence of additional environmental information. However, the individual impacts of e(a) and T-air on the delta O-18 values of cellulose can be integrated into a single index of plant-experienced atmospheric vapor demand: the leaf-to-air vapor pressure difference (VPD). We found a robust relationship between VPD and cellulose delta O-18 values in both empirical and modeled data in all ecosystems that we investigated. Our analysis revealed therefore that delta O-18 values in plant cellulose can be used as a proxy for VPD in tropical ecosystems. As VPD is an essential variable that determines the biogeochemical dynamics of ecosystems, our study has applications in ecological-, climate-, or forensic-sciences.
KW  - stable isotopes
KW  - plant-water relations
KW  - paleoecology
KW  - climate change
KW  - Hawaii
Y1  - 2011
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1018906108
SN  - 0027-8424
VL  - 108
IS  - 5
SP  - 1981
EP  - 1986
PB  - National Acad. of Sciences
CY  - Washington
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kalkuhl, Matthias
A1  - Wenz, Leonie
T1  - The impact of climate conditions on economic production
BT  - evidence from a global panel of regions
JF  - Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
N2  - We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.
KW  - climate change
KW  - climate damages
KW  - climate impacts
KW  - growth regression
KW  - global warming
KW  - panel regression
KW  - cross-sectional regression
KW  - damage
KW  - function
KW  - social costs of carbon
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102360
SN  - 0095-0696
SN  - 1096-0449
VL  - 103
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - San Diego
ER  -