TY  - JOUR
A1  - Avrami, Lydia
A1  - Sprinz, Detlef F.
T1  - Measuring and explaining the EU’s effect on national climate performance
JF  - Environmental Politics
N2  - To what extent has the European Union (EU) had a benign or retarding effect on what its member states would have undertaken in the absence of EU climate policies during 2008–2012? A measurement tool for the EU policy’s effect is developed and shows a benign average EU effect with considerable variation across countries. The EU’s policy effectiveness vis-à-vis its member states is explained by the EU’s non-compliance mechanism, the degree of usage of the Kyoto flexible mechanisms, and national pre-Kyoto emission reduction goals. Time-series cross-sectional analyses show that the EU’s non-compliance mechanism has no effect, while the ex-ante plans for using Kyoto flexible mechanisms and/or the ambitious pre-Kyoto emission reduction targets allow member states to escape constraints imposed by EU climate policy.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - policy effectiveness
KW  - EU
KW  - kyoto protocol
KW  - non-compliance
KW  - Kyoto (flexible) mechanisms
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2018.1494945
SN  - 0964-4016
SN  - 1743-8934
VL  - 28
IS  - 5
SP  - 822
EP  - 846
PB  - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
CY  - Abingdon
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Ayllon, Daniel
A1  - Railsback, Steven Floyd
A1  - Vincenzi, Simone
A1  - Groeneveld, Juergen
A1  - Almodoevar, Ana
A1  - Grimm, Volker
T1  - InSTREAM-Gen: Modelling eco-evolutionary dynamics of trout populations under anthropogenic environmental change
JF  - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog
N2  - Current rates of environmental change are exceeding the capacity of many populations to adapt to new conditions and thus avoid demographic collapse and ultimate extinction. In particular, cold-water freshwater fish species are predicted to experience strong selective pressure from climate change and a wide range of interacting anthropogenic stressors in the near future. To implement effective management and conservation measures, it is crucial to quantify the maximum rate of change that cold-water freshwater fish populations can withstand. Here, we present a spatially explicit eco-genetic individual-based model, inSTREAM-Gen, to predict the eco-evolutionary dynamics of stream-dwelling trout under anthropogenic environmental change. The model builds on a well-tested demographic model, which includes submodels of river dynamics, bioenergetics, and adaptive habitat selection, with a new genetic module that allows exploration of genetic and life-history adaptations to new environments. The genetic module models the transmission of two key traits, size at emergence and maturity size threshold. We parameterized the model for a brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) population at the warmest edge of its range to validate it and analyze its sensitivity to parameters under contrasting thermal profiles. To illustrate potential applications of the model, we analyzed the population's demographic and evolutionary dynamics under scenarios of (1) climate change-induced warming, and (2) warming plus flow reduction resulting from climate and land use change, compared to (3) a baseline of no environmental change. The model predicted severe declines in density and biomass under climate warming. These declines were lower than expected at range margins because of evolution towards smaller size at both emergence and maturation compared to the natural evolution under the baseline conditions. Despite stronger evolutionary responses, declining rates were substantially larger under the combined warming and flow reduction scenario, leading to a high probability of population extinction over contemporary time frames. Therefore, adaptive responses could not prevent extinction under high rates of environmental change. Our model demonstrates critical elements of next generation ecological modelling aiming at predictions in a changing world as it accounts for spatial and temporal resource heterogeneity, while merging individual behaviour and bioenergetics with microevolutionary adaptations.
KW  - Individual-based model
KW  - Eco-genetic modelling
KW  - Eco-evolution
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Brown trout
KW  - Next-generation modelling
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.07.026
SN  - 0304-3800
SN  - 1872-7026
VL  - 326
SP  - 36
EP  - 53
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bansard, Jennifer S.
A1  - Pattberg, Philipp H.
A1  - Widerberg, Oscar
T1  - Cities to the rescue? Assessing the performance of transnational municipal networks in global climate governance
JF  - International environmental agreements: politics, law and economics
N2  - Despite the proliferation and promise of subnational climate initiatives, the institutional architecture of transnational municipal networks (TMNs) is not well understood. With a view to close this research gap, the article empirically assesses the assumption that TMNs are a viable substitute for ambitious international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It addresses the aggregate phenomenon in terms of geographical distribution, central players, mitigation ambition and monitoring provisions. Examining thirteen networks, it finds that membership in TMNs is skewed toward Europe and North America while countries from the Global South are underrepresented; that only a minority of networks commit to quantified emission reductions and that these are not more ambitious than Parties to the UNFCCC; and finally that the monitoring provisions are fairly limited. In sum, the article shows that transnational municipal networks are not (yet) the representative, ambitious and transparent player they are thought to be.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Cities and regions
KW  - Urban politics
KW  - Transnational networks
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10784-016-9318-9
SN  - 1567-9764
SN  - 1573-1553
VL  - 17
SP  - 229
EP  - 246
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Barthold, Frauke Katrin
A1  - Wiesmeier, Martin
A1  - Breuer, L.
A1  - Frede, Hans-Georg
A1  - Wu, J.
A1  - Blank, F. Benjamin
T1  - Land use and climate control the spatial distribution of soil types in the grasslands of Inner Mongolia
JF  - Journal of arid environments
N2  - The spatial distribution of soil types is controlled by a set of environmental factors such as climate, organisms, parent material and topography as well as time and space. A change of these factors will lead to a change in the spatial distribution of soil types. In this study, we use a digital soil mapping approach to improve our knowledge about major soil type distributing factors in the steppe regions of Inner Mongolia (China) which currently undergo tremendous environmental change, e.g. climate and land use change. We use Random Forests in an effort to map Reference Soil Groups according to the World Reference Base for Soil Resources (WRB) in the Xilin River catchment. We benefit from the superior prediction capabilities of RF and additional interpretive results in order to identify the major environmental factors that control spatial patterns of soil types. The nine WRB soil groups that were identified and spatially predicted for the study area are Arenosol, Calcisol, Cambisol, Chernozem, Cryosol, Gleysol, Kastanozem, Phaeozem and Regosol.
 Model and prediction performances of the RF model are high with an Out-of-Bag error of 51.6% for the model and a misclassification error for the predicted map of 28.9%. The main controlling factors of soil type distribution are land use, a set of topographic variables, geology and climate. However, land use and climate are of major importance and topography and geology are of minor importance. The visualizations of the predictions, the variable importance measures as result of RF and the comparisons of these with the spatial distribution of the environmental factors delivered additional, quantitative information of these controlling factors and revealed that intensively grazed areas are subjected to soil degradation. However, most of the area is still governed by natural soil forming processes which are driven by climate, topography and geology. Most importantly though, our study revealed that a shift towards warmer temperatures and lower precipitation regimes will lead to a change of the spatial distribution of RSGs towards steppe soils that store less carbon, i.e. a decrease of spatial extent of Phaeozems and an increase of spatial extent of Chernozems and Kastanozems.
KW  - Random Forests
KW  - Soil-environmental relationships
KW  - Steppe
KW  - Inner Mongolia
KW  - Land use change
KW  - Climate change
Y1  - 2013
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2012.08.004
SN  - 0140-1963
VL  - 88
IS  - 1
SP  - 194
EP  - 205
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - London
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bell, M. J.
A1  - Jones, E.
A1  - Smith, J.
A1  - Smith, P.
A1  - Yeluripati, J.
A1  - Augustin, Jürgen
A1  - Juszczak, R.
A1  - Olejnik, J.
A1  - Sommer, Michael
T1  - Simulation of soil nitrogen, nitrous oxide emissions and mitigation scenarios at 3 European cropland sites using the ECOSSE model
JF  - Nutrient cycling in agroecosystems
N2  - The global warming potential of nitrous oxide (N2O) and its long atmospheric lifetime mean its presence in the atmosphere is of major concern, and that methods are required to measure and reduce emissions. Large spatial and temporal variations means, however, that simple extrapolation of measured data is inappropriate, and that other methods of quantification are required. Although process-based models have been developed to simulate these emissions, they often require a large amount of input data that is not available at a regional scale, making regional and global emission estimates difficult to achieve. The spatial extent of organic soils means that quantification of emissions from these soil types is also required, but will not be achievable using a process-based model that has not been developed to simulate soil water contents above field capacity or organic soils. The ECOSSE model was developed to overcome these limitations, and with a requirement for only input data that is readily available at a regional scale, it can be used to quantify regional emissions and directly inform land-use change decisions. ECOSSE includes the major processes of nitrogen (N) turnover, with material being exchanged between pools of SOM at rates modified by temperature, soil moisture, soil pH and crop cover. Evaluation of its performance at site-scale is presented to demonstrate its ability to adequately simulate soil N contents and N2O emissions from cropland soils in Europe. Mitigation scenarios and sensitivity analyses are also presented to demonstrate how ECOSSE can be used to estimate the impact of future climate and land-use change on N2O emissions.
KW  - Soil N2O emissions
KW  - Process-based models
KW  - Land-use
KW  - Climate change
Y1  - 2012
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10705-011-9479-4
SN  - 1385-1314
VL  - 92
IS  - 2
SP  - 161
EP  - 181
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bergholz, Kolja
A1  - May, Felix
A1  - Ristow, Michael
A1  - Giladi, Itamar
A1  - Ziv, Yaron
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
T1  - Two Mediterranean annuals feature high within-population trait variability and respond differently to a precipitation gradient
JF  - Basic and applied ecology : Journal of the Gesellschaft für Ökologie
N2  - Intraspecific trait variability plays an important role in species adaptation to climate change. However, it still remains unclear how plants in semi-arid environments respond to increasing aridity. We investigated the intraspecific trait variability of two common Mediterranean annuals (Geropogon hybridus and Crupina crupinastrum) with similar habitat preferences. They were studied along a steep precipitation gradient in Israel similar to the maximum predicted precipitation changes in the eastern Mediterranean basin (i.e. -30% until 2100). We expected a shift from competitive ability to stress tolerance with decreasing precipitation and tested this expectation by measuring key functional traits (canopy and seed release height, specific leaf area, N-and P-leaf content, seed mass). Further, we evaluated generative bet-hedging strategies by different seed traits. Both species showed different responses along the precipitation gradient. C. crupinastrum exhibited only decreased plant height toward saridity, while G. hybridus showed strong trends of generative adaptation to aridity. Different seed trait indices suggest increased bet-hedging of G. hybridus in arid environments. However, no clear trends along the precipitation gradient were observed in leaf traits (specific leaf area and leaf N-/P-content) in both species. Moreover, variance decomposition revealed that most of the observed trait variation (>> 50%) is found within populations. The findings of our study suggest that responses to increased aridity are highly species-specific and local environmental factors may have a stronger effect on intraspecific trait variation than shifts in annual precipitation. We therefore argue that trait-based analyses should focus on precipitation gradients that are comparable to predicted precipitation changes and compare precipitation effects to effects of local environmental factors. (C) 2017 Gesellschaft fur Okologie. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Functional ecology
KW  - Plant height
KW  - Drought stress
KW  - Rainfall gradient
KW  - Trait-environment relationship
KW  - Local adaptation
KW  - Phenotypic plasticity
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.baae.2017.11.001
SN  - 1439-1791
SN  - 1618-0089
VL  - 25
SP  - 48
EP  - 58
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Jena
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bubeck, Philip
A1  - Thieken, Annegret
T1  - What helps people recover from floods?
BT  - insights from a survey among flood-affected residents in German
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - The number of people exposed to natural hazards has grown steadily over recent decades, mainly due to increasing exposure in hazard-prone areas. In the future, climate change could further enhance this trend. Still, empirical and comprehensive insights into individual recovery from natural hazards are largely lacking, hampering efforts to increase societal resilience. Drawing from a sample of 710 residents affected by flooding across Germany in June 2013, we empirically explore a wide range of variables possibly influencing self-reported recovery, including flood-event characteristics, the circumstances of the recovery process, socio-economic characteristics, and psychological factors, using multivariate statistics. We found that the amount of damage and other flood-event characteristics such as inundation depth are less important than socio-economic characteristics (e.g., sex or health status) and psychological factors (e.g., risk aversion and emotions). Our results indicate that uniform recovery efforts focusing on areas that were the most affected in terms of physical damage are insufficient to account for the heterogeneity in individual recovery results. To increase societal resilience, aid and recovery efforts should better address the long-term psychological effects of floods.
KW  - Floods
KW  - Resilience
KW  - Recovery
KW  - Natural hazards
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Adaptation
Y1  - 2017
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-017-1200-y
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 18
IS  - 1
SP  - 287
EP  - 296
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Buter, Anuschka
A1  - Heckmann, Tobias
A1  - Filisetti, Lorenzo
A1  - Savi, Sara
A1  - Mao, Luca
A1  - Gems, Bernhard
A1  - Comiti, Francesco
T1  - Effects of catchment characteristics and hydro-meteorological scenarios on sediment connectivity in glacierised catchments
JF  - Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology
N2  - In the past decade, sediment connectivity has become a widely recognized characteristic of a geomorphic system. However, the quantification of functional connectivity (i.e. connectivity which arises due to the actual occurrence of sediment transport processes) and its variation over space and time is still a challenge. In this context, this study assesses the effects of expected future phenomena in the context of climate change (i.e. glacier retreat, permafrost degradation or meteorological extreme events) on sediment transport dynamics in a glacierised Alpine basin. The study area is the Sulden river basin (drainage area 130 km(2)) in the Italian Alps, which is composed of two geomorphologically diverse sub-basins. Based on graph theory, we evaluated the spatio-temporal variations in functional connectivity in these two sub-basins. The graph-object, obtained by manually mapping sediment transport processes between landforms, was adapted to 6 different hydro-meteorological scenarios, which derive from combining base, heatwave and rainstorm conditions with snowmelt and glacier-melt periods. For each scenario and each sub-basin, the sediment transport network and related catchment characteristics were analysed. To compare the effects of the scenarios on functional connectivity, we introduced a connectivity degree, calculated based on the area of the landforms involved in sediment cascades. Results indicate that the area of the basin connected to its outlet in terms of sediment transport might feature a six-fold increase in case of rainstorm conditions compared to "average " meteorological conditions assumed for the base scenario. Furthermore, markedly different effects of climate change on sediment connectivity are expected between the two sub-catchments due to their contrasting morphological and lithological characteristics, in terms of relative importance of rainfall triggered colluvial processes vs temperature-driven proglacial fluvial dynamics.
KW  - Functional connectivity
KW  - Graph theory
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Geomorphic systems
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2022.108128
SN  - 0169-555X
SN  - 1872-695X
VL  - 402
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
A1  - Pfister, A.
A1  - Bronstert, Axel
T1  - Temperature-Driven Rise in Extreme Sub-Hourly Rainfall
JF  - Journal of climate
N2  - Estimates of present and future extreme sub-hourly rainfall are derived from a daily spatial followed by a sub-daily temporal downscaling, the latter of which incorporates a novel, and crucial, temperature sensitivity. Specifically, daily global climate fields are spatially downscaled to local temperature T and precipitation P, which are then disaggregated to a temporal resolution of 10 min using a multiplicative random cascade model. The scheme is calibrated and validated with a group of 21 station records of 10-min resolution in Germany. The cascade model is used in the classical (denoted as MC) and in the new T-sensitive (MC+) version, which respects local Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) effects such as CC scaling. Extreme P is positively biased in both MC versions. Observed T sensitivity is absent in MC but well reproduced by MC+. Long-term positive trends in extreme sub-hourly P are generally more pronounced and more significant in MC+ than in MC. In units of 10-min rainfall, observed centennial trends in annual exceedance counts (EC) of P > 5 mm are +29% and in 3-yr return levels (RL) +27%. For the RCP4.5-simulated future, higher extremes are projected in both versions MC and MC+: per century, EC increases by 30% for MC and by 83% for MC+; the RL rises by 14% for MC and by 33% for MC+. Because the projected daily P trends are negligible, the sub-daily signal is mainly driven by local temperature.
KW  - Extreme events
KW  - Rainfall
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Statistical techniques
KW  - Time series
KW  - Stochastic models
Y1  - 2019
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0136.1
SN  - 0894-8755
SN  - 1520-0442
VL  - 32
IS  - 22
SP  - 7597
EP  - 7609
PB  - American Meteorological Soc.
CY  - Boston
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Caron, Maria Mercedes
A1  - De Frenne, P.
A1  - Brunet, J.
A1  - Chabrerie, Olivier
A1  - Cousins, S. A. O.
A1  - De Backer, L.
A1  - Diekmann, M.
A1  - Graae, B. J.
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Kolb, A.
A1  - Naaf, T.
A1  - Plue, J.
A1  - Selvi, F.
A1  - Strimbeck, G. R.
A1  - Wulf, Monika
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
T1  - Latitudinal variation in seeds characteristics of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus
JF  - Plant ecology : an international journal
N2  - Climate change will likely affect population dynamics of numerous plant species by modifying several aspects of the life cycle. Because plant regeneration from seeds may be particularly vulnerable, here we assess the possible effects of climate change on seed characteristics and present an integrated analysis of seven seed traits (nutrient concentrations, samara mass, seed mass, wing length, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass) of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus seeds collected along a wide latitudinal gradient from Italy to Norway. Seed traits were analyzed in relation to the environmental conditions experienced by the mother trees along the latitudinal gradient. We found that seed traits of A. platanoides were more influenced by the climatic conditions than those of A. pseudoplatanus. Additionally, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass of A. platanoides were strongly related to the seed mass and nutrient concentration. While A. platanoides seeds were more influenced by the environmental conditions (generally negatively affected by rising temperatures), compared to A. pseudoplatanus, A. platanoides still showed higher germination percentage and seedling biomass than A. pseudoplatanus. Thus, further research on subsequent life-history stages of both species is needed. The variation in seed quality observed along the climatic gradient highlights the importance of studying the possible impact of climate change on seed production and species demography.
KW  - Acer platanoides
KW  - Acer pseudoplatanus
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Seed traits
KW  - Latitudinal gradient
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-014-0343-x
SN  - 1385-0237
SN  - 1573-5052
VL  - 215
IS  - 8
SP  - 911
EP  - 925
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Caron, Maria Mercedes
A1  - De Frenne, P.
A1  - Chabrerie, Olivier
A1  - Cousins, S. A. O.
A1  - De Backer, L.
A1  - Decocq, G.
A1  - Diekmann, M.
A1  - Heinken, Thilo
A1  - Kolb, A.
A1  - Naaf, T.
A1  - Plue, J.
A1  - Selvi, F.
A1  - Strimbeck, G. R.
A1  - Wulf, M.
A1  - Verheyen, Kris
T1  - Impacts of warming and changes in precipitation frequency on the regeneration of two Acer species
JF  - Flora : morphology, distribution, functional ecology of plants
KW  - Seed provenance
KW  - Germination
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Interactive effects
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flora.2015.05.005
SN  - 0367-2530
SN  - 1618-0585
VL  - 214
SP  - 24
EP  - 33
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Jena
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Dolgener, Nicola
A1  - Freudenberger, L.
A1  - Schneeweiss, N.
A1  - Ibisch, P. L.
A1  - Tiedemann, Ralph
T1  - Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads.
KW  - Brandenburg
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Distribution modelling
KW  - Endangered species
KW  - Fire-bellied toad
KW  - Maxent
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 14
IS  - 3
SP  - 1063
EP  - 1072
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Fer, Istem
A1  - Tietjen, Britta
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
T1  - High-resolution modelling closes the gap between data and model simulations for Mid-Holocene and present-day biomes of East Africa
JF  - Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences
N2  - East Africa hosts a striking diversity of terrestrial ecosystems, which vary both in space and time due to complex regional topography and a dynamic climate. The structure and functioning of these ecosystems under this environmental setting can be studied with dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) in a spatially explicit way. Yet, regional applications of DVMs to East Africa are rare and a comprehensive validation of such applications is missing. Here, we simulated the present-day and mid-Holocene vegetation of East Africa with the DVM, LPJ-GUESS and we conducted an exhaustive comparison of model outputs with maps of potential modern vegetation distribution, and with pollen records of local change through time. Overall, the model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of East African vegetation. To see whether running the model at higher spatial resolutions (10′ × 10′) contribute to resolve the vegetation distribution better and have a better comparison scale with the observational data (i.e. pollen data), we run the model with coarser spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5°) for the present-day as well. Both the area- and point-wise comparison showed that a higher spatial resolution allows to better describe spatial vegetation changes induced by the complex topography of East Africa. Our analysis of the difference between modelled mid-Holocene and modern-day vegetation showed that whether a biome shifts to another is best explained by both the amount of change in precipitation it experiences and the amount of precipitation it received originally. We also confirmed that tropical forest biomes were more sensitive to a decrease in precipitation compared to woodland and savanna biomes and that Holocene vegetation changes in East Africa were driven not only by changes in annual precipitation but also by changes in its seasonality.
KW  - Dynamic vegetation models
KW  - Biome
KW  - Mid-Holocene
KW  - Leaf area index
KW  - Climate change
KW  - East Africa
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2015.12.001
SN  - 0031-0182
SN  - 1872-616X
VL  - 444
SP  - 144
EP  - 151
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Fer, Istem
A1  - Tietjen, Britta
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
A1  - Trauth, Martin H.
T1  - Modelling vegetation change during Late Cenozoic uplift of the East African plateaus
JF  - Palaeogeography, palaeoclimatology, palaeoecology : an international journal for the geo-sciences
N2  - The present-day vegetation in the tropics is mainly characterized by forests worldwide except in tropical East Africa, where forests only occur as patches at the coast and in the uplands. These forest patches result from the peculiar aridity that is linked to the uplift of the region during the Late Cenozoic. The Late Cenozoic vegetation history of East Africa is of particular interest as it has set the scene for the contemporary events in mammal and hominin evolution. In this study, we investigate the conditions under which these forest patches could have been connected, and a previous continuous forest belt could have extended and fragmented. We apply a dynamic vegetation model with a set of climatic scenarios in which we systematically alter the present-day environmental conditions such that they would be more favourable for a continuous forest belt in tropical East Africa. We consider varying environmental factors, namely temperature, precipitation and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Our results show that all of these variables play a significant role in supporting the forest biomes and a continuous forest belt could have occurred under certain combinations of these settings. With our current knowledge of the palaeoenvironmental history of East Africa, it is likely that the region hosted these conditions during the Late Cenozoic. Recent improvements on environmental hypotheses of hominin evolution highlight the role of periods of short and extreme climate variability during the Late Cenozoic specific to East Africa in driving evolution. Our results elucidate how the forest biomes of East Africa can appear and disappear under fluctuating environmental conditions and demonstrate how this climate variability might be recognized on the biosphere level.
KW  - Dynamic vegetation models
KW  - Palaeovegetation
KW  - Evolution
KW  - Late Cenozoic
KW  - East Africa
KW  - Climate change
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.04.007
SN  - 0031-0182
SN  - 1872-616X
VL  - 467
SP  - 120
EP  - 130
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Fuhr, Harald
T1  - The rise of the Global South and the rise in carbon emissions
JF  - Third world quarterly
N2  - Jointly with the Global North, the rise of the Global South has come at a high cost to the environment. Driven by its high energy intensity and the use of fossil fuels, the South has contributed a significant portion of global emissions during the last 30 years, and is now contributing some 63% of today's total GHG emissions (including land-use change and forestry). Similar to the Global North, the Global South's emissions are heavily concentrated: India and China alone account for some 60% and the top 10 countries for some 78% of the group's emissions, while some 120 countries account for only 22%. Without highlighting such differences, it makes little sense to use the term 'Global South'. Its members are affected differently, and contribute differently to global climate change. They neither share a common view, nor do they pursue joint interests when it comes to international climate negotiations. Instead, they are organised into more than a dozen subgroups of the global climate regime. There is no single climate strategy for the Global South, and climate action will differ enormously from country to country. Furthermore, just and equitable transitions may be particularly challenging for some countries.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - international development
KW  - energy
KW  - environmental policy
KW  - Global South
KW  - transition policy
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2021.1954901
SN  - 0143-6597
SN  - 1360-2241
VL  - 42
IS  - 11
SP  - 2724
EP  - 2746
PB  - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
CY  - Abingdon
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Geyer, Juliane
A1  - Strixner, Lena
A1  - Kreft, Stefan
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
A1  - Ibisch, Pierre L.
T1  - Adapting conservation to climate change: a case study on feasibility and implementation in Brandenburg, Germany
JF  - Regional environmental change
N2  - Conservation actions need to account for global climate change and adapt to it. The body of the literature on adaptation options is growing rapidly, but their feasibility and current state of implementation are rarely assessed. We discussed the practicability of adaptation options with conservation managers analysing three fields of action: reducing the vulnerability of conservation management, reducing the vulnerability of conservation targets (i.e. biodiversity) and climate change mitigation. For all options, feasibility, current state of implementation and existing obstacles to implementation were analysed, using the Federal State of Brandenburg, Germany, as a case study. Practitioners considered a large number of options useful, most of which have already been implemented at least in part. Those options considered broadly implemented resemble mainly conventional measures of conservation without direct relation to climate change. Managers are facing several obstacles for adapting to climate change, including political reluctance to change, financial and staff shortages in conservation administrations and conflictive EU funding schemes in agriculture. A certain reluctance to act, due to the high degree of uncertainty with regard to climate change scenarios and impacts, is widespread. A lack of knowledge of appropriate methods such as adaptive management often inhibits the implementation of adaptation options in the field of planning and management. Based on the findings for Brandenburg, we generally conclude that it is necessary to focus in particular on options that help to reduce vulnerability of conservation management itself, i.e. those that enhance management effectiveness. For instance, adaptive and proactive risk management can be applied as a no-regrets option, independently from specific climate change scenarios or impacts, strengthening action under uncertainty.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Adaptation options
KW  - Nature conservation management
KW  - Vulnerability
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-014-0609-9
SN  - 1436-3798
SN  - 1436-378X
VL  - 15
IS  - 1
SP  - 139
EP  - 153
PB  - Springer
CY  - Heidelberg
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Groeneveld, Jürgen
A1  - Johst, Karin
A1  - Kawaguchi, So
A1  - Meyer, Bettina
A1  - Teschke, Mathias
A1  - Grimm, Volker
T1  - How biological clocks and changing environmental conditions determine local population growth and species distribution in Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba): a conceptual model
JF  - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog
N2  - The Southern Ocean ecosystem is characterized by extreme seasonal changes in environmental factors such as day length, sea ice extent and food availability. The key species Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) has evolved metabolic and behavioural seasonal rhythms to cope with these seasonal changes. We investigate the switch between a physiological less active and active period for adult krill, a rhythm which seems to be controlled by internal biological clocks. These biological clocks can be synchronized by environmental triggers such as day length and food availability. They have evolved for particular environmental regimes to synchronize predictable seasonal environmental changes with important life cycle functions of the species. In a changing environment the time when krill is metabolically active and the time of peak food availability may not overlap if krill's seasonal activity is solely determined by photoperiod (day length). This is especially true for the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean where the spatio-temporal ice cover dynamics are changing substantially with rising average temperatures. We developed an individual-based model for krill to explore the impact of photoperiod and food availability on the growth and demographics of krill. We simulated dynamics of local krill populations (with no movement of krill assumed) along a south-north gradient for different triggers of metabolic activity and different levels of food availability below the ice. We also observed the fate of larval krill which cannot switch to low metabolism and therefore are likely to overwinter under ice. Krill could only occupy the southern end of the gradient, where algae bloom only lasts for a short time, when alternative food supply under the ice was high and metabolic activity was triggered by photoperiod. The northern distribution was limited by lack of overwintering habitat for krill larvae due to short duration of sea ice cover even for high food content under the ice. The variability of the krill's length-frequency distributions varied for different triggers of metabolic activity, but did not depend on the sea ice extent. Our findings suggest a southward shift of krill populations due to reduction in the spatial sea ice extent, which is consistent with field observations. Overall, our results highlight the importance of the explicit consideration of spatio-temporal sea ice dynamics especially for larval krill together with temporal synchronization through internal clocks, triggered by environmental factors (photoperiod and food) in adult krill for the population modelling of krill. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KW  - Dynamic energy budget theory
KW  - Individual based model
KW  - Southern Ocean
KW  - Sea ice
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Marine ecology
Y1  - 2015
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.02.009
SN  - 0304-3800
SN  - 1872-7026
VL  - 303
SP  - 78
EP  - 86
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hudson, Paul
T1  - A comparison of definitions of affordability for flood risk adaption measures
BT  - a case study of current and future risk-based flood insurance premiums in Europe
JF  - Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change : an international journal devoted to scientific, engineering, socio-economic and policy responses to environmental change
N2  - Risk-based insurance is a commonly proposed and discussed flood risk adaptation mechanism in policy debates across the world such as in the United Kingdom and the United States of America. However, both risk-based premiums and growing risk pose increasing difficulties for insurance to remain affordable. An empirical concept of affordability is required as the affordability of adaption strategies is an important concern for policymakers, yet such a concept is not often examined. Therefore, a robust metric with a commonly acceptable affordability threshold is required. A robust metric allows for a previously normative concept to be quantified in monetary terms, and in this way, the metric is rendered more suitable for integration into public policy debates. This paper investigates the degree to which risk-based flood insurance premiums are unaffordable in Europe. In addition, this paper compares the outcomes generated by three different definitions of unaffordability in order to investigate the most robust definition. In doing so, the residual income definition was found to be the least sensitive to changes in the threshold. While this paper focuses on Europe, the selected definition can be employed elsewhere in the world and across adaption measures in order to develop a common metric for indicating the potential unaffordability problem.
KW  - Flood risk
KW  - Insurance
KW  - Affordability
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Adaptation
KW  - Public policy
Y1  - 2018
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-017-9769-5
SN  - 1381-2386
SN  - 1573-1596
VL  - 23
IS  - 7
SP  - 1019
EP  - 1038
PB  - Springer
CY  - Dordrecht
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa
A1  - Sunyer, Maria A.
A1  - Lawrence, Deborah
A1  - Madsen, Henrik
A1  - Willems, Patrick
A1  - Bürger, Gerd
A1  - Kriauciuniene, Jurate
A1  - Loukas, Athanasios
A1  - Martinkova, Marta
A1  - Osuch, Marzena
A1  - Vasiliades, Lampros
A1  - von Christierson, Birgitte
A1  - Vormoor, Klaus Josef
A1  - Yuecel, Ismail
T1  - Inter-comparison of statistical downscaling methods for projection of extreme flow indices across Europe
JF  - Journal of hydrology
N2  - The effect of methods of statistical downscaling of daily precipitation on changes in extreme flow indices under a plausible future climate change scenario was investigated in 11 catchments selected from 9 countries in different parts of Europe. The catchments vary from 67 to 6171 km(2) in size and cover different climate zones. 15 regional climate model outputs and 8 different statistical downscaling methods, which are broadly categorized as change factor and bias correction based methods, were used for the comparative analyses. Different hydrological models were implemented in different catchments to simulate daily runoff. A set of flood indices were derived from daily flows and their changes have been evaluated by comparing their values derived from simulations corresponding to the current and future climate. Most of the implemented downscaling methods project an increase in the extreme flow indices in most of the catchments. The catchments where the extremes are expected to increase have a rainfall dominated flood regime. In these catchments, the downscaling methods also project an increase in the extreme precipitation in the seasons when the extreme flows occur. In catchments where the flooding is mainly caused by spring/summer snowmelt, the downscaling methods project a decrease in the extreme flows in three of the four catchments considered. A major portion of the variability in the projected changes in the extreme flow indices is attributable to the variability of the climate model ensemble, although the statistical downscaling methods contribute 35-60% of the total variance. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
KW  - Flooding
KW  - Statistical downscaling
KW  - Regional climate models
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Europe
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.08.033
SN  - 0022-1694
SN  - 1879-2707
VL  - 541
SP  - 1273
EP  - 1286
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kotz, Maximilian
A1  - Wenz, Leonie
A1  - Stechemesser, Annika
A1  - Kalkuhl, Matthias
A1  - Levermann, Anders
T1  - Day-to-day temperature variability reduces economic growth
JF  - Nature climate change
N2  - Elevated annual average temperature has been found to impact macro-economic growth. However, various fundamental elements of the economy are affected by deviations of daily temperature from seasonal expectations which are not well reflected in annual averages. Here we show that increases in seasonally adjusted day-to-day temperature variability reduce macro-economic growth independent of and in addition to changes in annual average temperature. Combining observed day-to-day temperature variability with subnational economic data for 1,537 regions worldwide over 40 years in fixed-effects panel models, we find that an extra degree of variability results in a five percentage-point reduction in regional growth rates on average. The impact of day-to-day variability is modulated by seasonal temperature difference and income, resulting in highest vulnerability in low-latitude, low-income regions (12 percentage-point reduction). These findings illuminate a new, global-impact channel in the climate–economy relationship that demands a more comprehensive assessment in both climate and integrated assessment models.
KW  - Climate change
KW  - Climate-change impacts
KW  - Economics
KW  - Environmental economics
KW  - Environmental impact
Y1  - 2021
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00985-5
SN  - 1758-678X
SN  - 1758-6798
VL  - 11
IS  - 4
SP  - 319
EP  - 325
PB  - Nature Publishing Group
CY  - London
ER  -