TY - JOUR A1 - Dolgener, Nicola A1 - Freudenberger, L. A1 - Schneeweiss, N. A1 - Ibisch, P. L. A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph T1 - Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads. KW - Brandenburg KW - Climate change KW - Distribution modelling KW - Endangered species KW - Fire-bellied toad KW - Maxent Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 1063 EP - 1072 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sommer, Robert S. A1 - Kalbe, Johannes A1 - Ekstrom, Jonas A1 - Benecke, Norbert A1 - Liljegren, Ronnie T1 - Range dynamics of the reindeer in Europe during the last 25,000 years JF - Journal of biogeography N2 - Aim To understand the role and significance of the reindeer, Rangifer tarandus (Linnaeus, 1758), as a specific indicator in terms of late Quaternary biogeography and to determine the effects of global climate change on its range and local extinction dynamics at the end of the Ice Age. Location Late Pleistocene/early Holocene range of reindeer over all of central and western Europe, including southern Scandinavia and northern Iberia, but excluding Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine. Methods Radiocarbon-dated subfossil records of R. tarandus from both archaeological and natural deposits younger than 25,000 years were assembled in a database. The distribution area was divided into six representative regions. The C-14 dates were calibrated and plotted chronologically in maps in order to compare presence and absence and regional extinction patterns from one region to another. Main conclusions The late Quaternary record for reindeer in Europe during the last 25 kyr shows a climate-driven dispersal and retreat in response to climate change, with regional variations. The collapse of the mammoth steppe biome did not lead to the local extinction in Europe, as in the case of other megafaunal species. Rangifer tarandus co-existed for about 3000 years during the Late Glacial and early Holocene with typical temperate species such as red deer and roe deer in non-analogue faunal communities. The regional extinction at the end of the Pleistocene coincides with the transition from light open birch/pine forests to pine/deciduous forests. KW - Climate change KW - environmental change KW - extinction KW - global change KW - late Quaternary KW - Pleistocene/Holocene transition KW - Rangifer tarandus KW - reindeer Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12193 SN - 0305-0270 SN - 1365-2699 VL - 41 IS - 2 SP - 298 EP - 306 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Caron, Maria Mercedes A1 - De Frenne, P. A1 - Brunet, J. A1 - Chabrerie, Olivier A1 - Cousins, S. A. O. A1 - De Backer, L. A1 - Diekmann, M. A1 - Graae, B. J. A1 - Heinken, Thilo A1 - Kolb, A. A1 - Naaf, T. A1 - Plue, J. A1 - Selvi, F. A1 - Strimbeck, G. R. A1 - Wulf, Monika A1 - Verheyen, Kris T1 - Latitudinal variation in seeds characteristics of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus JF - Plant ecology : an international journal N2 - Climate change will likely affect population dynamics of numerous plant species by modifying several aspects of the life cycle. Because plant regeneration from seeds may be particularly vulnerable, here we assess the possible effects of climate change on seed characteristics and present an integrated analysis of seven seed traits (nutrient concentrations, samara mass, seed mass, wing length, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass) of Acer platanoides and A. pseudoplatanus seeds collected along a wide latitudinal gradient from Italy to Norway. Seed traits were analyzed in relation to the environmental conditions experienced by the mother trees along the latitudinal gradient. We found that seed traits of A. platanoides were more influenced by the climatic conditions than those of A. pseudoplatanus. Additionally, seed viability, germination percentage, and seedling biomass of A. platanoides were strongly related to the seed mass and nutrient concentration. While A. platanoides seeds were more influenced by the environmental conditions (generally negatively affected by rising temperatures), compared to A. pseudoplatanus, A. platanoides still showed higher germination percentage and seedling biomass than A. pseudoplatanus. Thus, further research on subsequent life-history stages of both species is needed. The variation in seed quality observed along the climatic gradient highlights the importance of studying the possible impact of climate change on seed production and species demography. KW - Acer platanoides KW - Acer pseudoplatanus KW - Climate change KW - Seed traits KW - Latitudinal gradient Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-014-0343-x SN - 1385-0237 SN - 1573-5052 VL - 215 IS - 8 SP - 911 EP - 925 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wischnewski, Juliane A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike A1 - Ruehland, Kathleen M. A1 - Braeuning, Achim A1 - Mischke, Steffen A1 - Smol, John P. A1 - Wang, Lily T1 - Recent ecological responses to climate variability and human impacts in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains (eastern Tibetan Plateau) inferred from pollen, diatom and tree-ring data JF - Journal of paleolimnolog N2 - The Tibetan Plateau is a region that is highly sensitive to recent global warming, but the complexity and heterogeneity of its mountainous landscape can result in variable responses. In addition, the scarcity and brevity of regional instrumental and palaeoecological records still hamper our understanding of past and present patterns of environmental change. To investigate how the remote, high-alpine environments of the Nianbaoyeze Mountains, eastern Tibetan Plateau, are affected by climate change and human activity over the last similar to 600 years, we compared regional tree-ring studies with pollen and diatom remains archived in the dated sediments of Dongerwuka Lake (33.22A degrees N, 101.12A degrees E, 4,307 m a.s.l.). In agreement with previous studies from the eastern Tibetan Plateau, a strong coherence between our two juniper-based tree-ring chronologies from the Nianbaoyeze and the Anemaqin Mountains was observed, with pronounced cyclical variations in summer temperature reconstructions. A positive directional trend to warmer summer temperatures in the most recent decades, was, however, not observed in the tree-ring record. Likewise, our pollen and diatom spectra showed minimal change over the investigated time period. Although modest, the most notable change in the diatom relative abundances was a subtle decrease in the dominant planktonic Cyclotella ocellata and a concurrent increase in small, benthic fragilarioid taxa in the similar to 1820s, suggesting higher ecosystem variability. The pollen record subtly indicates three periods of increased cattle grazing activity (similar to 1400-1480 AD, similar to 1630-1760 AD, after 1850 AD), but shows generally no significant vegetation changes during past similar to 600 years. The minimal changes observed in the tree-ring, diatom and pollen records are consistent with the presence of localised cooling centres that are evident in instrumental and tree-ring data within the southeastern and eastern Tibetan Plateau. Given the minor changes in regional temperature records, our complacent palaeoecological profiles suggest that climatically induced ecological thresholds have not yet been crossed in the Nianbaoyeze Mountains region. KW - Tibetan Plateau KW - Nianbaoyeze Mountains KW - Pollen KW - Diatoms KW - Tree-ring KW - Climate change KW - Human impact Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10933-013-9747-1 SN - 0921-2728 SN - 1573-0417 VL - 51 IS - 2 SP - 287 EP - 302 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER -