TY  - JOUR
A1  - Wenz, Leonie
A1  - Kalkuhl, Matthias
A1  - Steckel, Jan Christoph
A1  - Creutzig, Felix
T1  - Teleconnected food supply shocks
JF  - Environmental research letters
N2  - The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks.
KW  - food security
KW  - trade shocks
KW  - vulnerability
KW  - climate change
KW  - teleconnections
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007
SN  - 1748-9326
VL  - 11
PB  - IOP Publ. Ltd.
CY  - Bristol
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Putra, Muhammad Panji Islam Fajar
A1  - Pradhan, Prajal
A1  - Kropp, Jürgen
T1  - A systematic analysis of Water-Energy-Food security nexus
BT  - a South Asian case study
JF  - The science of the total environment : an international journal for scientific research into the environment and its relationship with man
N2  - Most South Asian countries have challenges in ensuring water, energy, and food (WEF) security, which are often interacting positively or negatively. To address these challenges, the nexus approach provides a framework to identify the interactions of the WEF sectors as an integrated system. However, most nexus studies only qualitatively discuss the interactions between these sectors. This study conducts a systematic analysis of the WEF security nexus in South Asia by using open data sources at the country scale. We analyze interactions between the WEF sectors statistically, defining positive and negative correlations between the WEF security indicators as synergies and trade-offs, respectively. By creating networks of the synergies and trade-offs, we further identify most positively and negatively influencing indicators in the WEF security nexus. We observe a larger share of trade-offs than synergies within the water and energy sectors and a larger share of synergies than trade-offs among the WEF sectors for South Asia. However, these observations vary across the South Asian countries. Our analysis highlights that strategies on promoting sustainable energy and discouraging fossil fuel use could have overall positive effects on the WEF security nexus in the countries. This study provides evidence for considering the WEF security nexus as an integrated system rather than just a combination of three different sectors or securities.
KW  - water security
KW  - food security
KW  - energy security
KW  - network analysis
KW  - water-energy-food nexus
KW  - sustainable development
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.138451
SN  - 0048-9697
SN  - 1879-1026
VL  - 728
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  -