TY - JOUR A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - De Laender, Frederik A1 - Cabral, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Boulangeat, Isabelle A1 - Crawford, Michael Scott A1 - Bohn, Friedrich A1 - De Raedt, Jonathan A1 - Scherer, Cedric A1 - Svenning, Jens-Christian A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten A1 - Schurr, Frank M. A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie T1 - The dimensionality of stability depends on disturbance type JF - Ecology letters N2 - Ecosystems respond in various ways to disturbances. Quantifying ecological stability therefore requires inspecting multiple stability properties, such as resistance, recovery, persistence and invariability. Correlations among these properties can reduce the dimensionality of stability, simplifying the study of environmental effects on ecosystems. A key question is how the kind of disturbance affects these correlations. We here investigated the effect of three disturbance types (random, species-specific, local) applied at four intensity levels, on the dimensionality of stability at the population and community level. We used previously parameterized models that represent five natural communities, varying in species richness and the number of trophic levels. We found that disturbance type but not intensity affected the dimensionality of stability and only at the population level. The dimensionality of stability also varied greatly among species and communities. Therefore, studying stability cannot be simplified to using a single metric and multi-dimensional assessments are still to be recommended. KW - Community model KW - disturbance intensity KW - disturbance type KW - extinction KW - individual-based model KW - invariability KW - persistence KW - recovery KW - resistance Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13226 SN - 1461-023X SN - 1461-0248 VL - 22 IS - 4 SP - 674 EP - 684 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Cano Crespo, Ana A1 - Traxl, Dominik A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten T1 - Spatio-temporal patterns of extreme fires in Amazonian forests JF - European physical journal special topics N2 - Fires are a fundamental part of the Earth System. In the last decades, they have been altering ecosystem structure, biogeochemical cycles and atmospheric composition with unprecedented rapidity. In this study, we implement a complex networks-based methodology to track individual fires over space and time. We focus on extreme fires-the 5% most intense fires-in the tropical forests of the Brazilian Legal Amazon over the period 2002-2019. We analyse the interannual variability in the number and spatial patterns of extreme forest fires in years with diverse climatic conditions and anthropogenic pressure to examine potential synergies between climate and anthropogenic drivers. We observe that major droughts, that increase forest flammability, co-occur with high extreme fire years but also that it is fundamental to consider anthropogenic activities to understand the distribution of extreme fires. Deforestation fires, fires escaping from managed lands, and other types of forest degradation and fragmentation provide the ignition sources for fires to ignite in the forests. We find that all extreme forest fires identified are located within a 0.5-km distance from forest edges, and up to 56% of them are within a 1-km distance from roads (which increases to 73% within 5 km), showing a strong correlation that defines spatial patterns of extreme fires. Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00164-3 SN - 1951-6355 SN - 1951-6401 VL - 230 IS - 14-15 SP - 3033 EP - 3044 PB - Springer CY - Berlin ; Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Sakschewski, Boris A1 - von Bloh, Werner A1 - Boit, Alice A1 - Poorter, Lourens A1 - Pe~na-Claros, Marielos A1 - Heinke, Jens A1 - Joshi, Jasmin Radha A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten T1 - Resilience of Amazon forests emerges from plant trait diversity JF - Nature climate change Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3109 SN - 1758-678X SN - 1758-6798 VL - 6 SP - 1032 EP - + PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Karp, Daniel S. A1 - Tallis, Heather A1 - Sachse, Rene A1 - Halpern, Ben A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten A1 - Cramer, Wolfgang A1 - Mooney, Harold A1 - Polasky, Stephen A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Waha, Katharina A1 - Walt, Ariane A1 - Wolny, Stacie T1 - National indicators for observing ecosystem service change JF - Global environmental change : human and policy dimensions N2 - Earth's life-support systems are in rapid decline, yet we have few metrics or indicators with which to track these changes. The world's governments are calling for biodiversity and ecosystem-service monitoring to guide and evaluate international conservation policy as well as to incorporate natural capital into their national accounts. The Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON) has been tasked with setting up this monitoring system. Here we explore the immediate feasibility of creating a global ecosystem-service monitoring platform under the GEO BON framework through combining data from national statistics, global vegetation models, and production function models. We found that nine ecosystem services could be annually reported at a national scale in the short term: carbon sequestration, water supply for hydropower, and non-fisheries marine products, crop, livestock, game meat, fisheries, mariculture, and timber production. Reported changes in service delivery over time reflected ecological shocks (e.g., droughts and disease outbreaks), highlighting the immediate utility of this monitoring system. Our work also identified three opportunities for creating a more comprehensive monitoring system. First, investing in input data for ecological process models (e.g., global land-use maps) would allow many more regulating services to be monitored. Currently, only 1 of 9 services that can be reported is a regulating service. Second, household surveys and censuses could help evaluate how nature affects people and provides non-monetary benefits. Finally, to forecast the sustainability of service delivery, research efforts could focus on calculating the total remaining biophysical stocks of provisioning services. Regardless, we demonstrated that a preliminary ecosystem-service monitoring platform is immediately feasible. With sufficient international investment, the platform could evolve further into a much-needed system to track changes in our planet's life-support systems. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. KW - Ecosystem services KW - GEO BON KW - Global change KW - Monitoring KW - Process models Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.07.014 SN - 0959-3780 SN - 1872-9495 VL - 35 SP - 12 EP - 21 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Langerwisch, Fanny A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Rammig, Anja A1 - Tietjen, Britta A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten A1 - Cramer, Wolfgang T1 - Deforestation in Amazonia impacts riverine carbon dynamics JF - Earth system dynamics N2 - Fluxes of organic and inorganic carbon within the Amazon basin are considerably controlled by annual flooding, which triggers the export of terrigenous organic material to the river and ultimately to the Atlantic Ocean. The amount of carbon imported to the river and the further conversion, transport and export of it depend on temperature, atmospheric CO2, terrestrial productivity and carbon storage, as well as discharge. Both terrestrial productivity and discharge are influenced by climate and land use change. The coupled LPJmL and RivCM model system (Langerwisch et al., 2016) has been applied to assess the combined impacts of climate and land use change on the Amazon riverine carbon dynamics. Vegetation dynamics (in LPJmL) as well as export and conversion of terrigenous carbon to and within the river (RivCM) are included. The model system has been applied for the years 1901 to 2099 under two deforestation scenarios and with climate forcing of three SRES emission scenarios, each for five climate models. We find that high deforestation (business-as-usual scenario) will strongly decrease (locally by up to 90 %) riverine particulate and dissolved organic carbon amount until the end of the current century. At the same time, increase in discharge leaves net carbon transport during the first decades of the century roughly unchanged only if a sufficient area is still forested. After 2050 the amount of transported carbon will decrease drastically. In contrast to that, increased temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration determine the amount of riverine inorganic carbon stored in the Amazon basin. Higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase riverine inorganic carbon amount by up to 20% (SRES A2). The changes in riverine carbon fluxes have direct effects on carbon export, either to the atmosphere via outgassing or to the Atlantic Ocean via discharge. The outgassed carbon will increase slightly in the Amazon basin, but can be regionally reduced by up to 60% due to deforestation. The discharge of organic carbon to the ocean will be reduced by about 40% under the most severe deforestation and climate change scenario. These changes would have local and regional consequences on the carbon balance and habitat characteristics in the Amazon basin itself as well as in the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-953-2016 SN - 2190-4979 SN - 2190-4987 VL - 7 SP - 953 EP - 968 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reichstein, Markus A1 - Bahn, Michael A1 - Ciais, Philippe A1 - Frank, Dorothea A1 - Mahecha, Miguel D. A1 - Seneviratne, Sonia I. A1 - Zscheischler, Jakob A1 - Beer, Christian A1 - Buchmann, Nina A1 - Frank, David C. A1 - Papale, Dario A1 - Rammig, Anja A1 - Smith, Pete A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten A1 - van der Velde, Marijn A1 - Vicca, Sara A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Wattenbach, Martin T1 - Climate extremes and the carbon cycle JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - The terrestrial biosphere is a key component of the global carbon cycle and its carbon balance is strongly influenced by climate. Continuing environmental changes are thought to increase global terrestrial carbon uptake. But evidence is mounting that climate extremes such as droughts or storms can lead to a decrease in regional ecosystem carbon stocks and therefore have the potential to negate an expected increase in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we explore the mechanisms and impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle, and propose a pathway to improve our understanding of present and future impacts of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon budget. Y1 - 2013 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/nature12350 SN - 0028-0836 VL - 500 IS - 7462 SP - 287 EP - 295 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Reed, Thomas A1 - Teplitsky, Celine A1 - van de Pol, Martijn A1 - Charmantier, Anne A1 - Hassall, Christopher A1 - Adamik, Peter A1 - Adriaensen, Frank A1 - Ahola, Markus P. A1 - Arcese, Peter A1 - Miguel Aviles, Jesus A1 - Balbontin, Javier A1 - Berg, Karl S. A1 - Borras, Antoni A1 - Burthe, Sarah A1 - Clobert, Jean A1 - Dehnhard, Nina A1 - de Lope, Florentino A1 - Dhondt, Andre A. A1 - Dingemanse, Niels J. A1 - Doi, Hideyuki A1 - Eeva, Tapio A1 - Fickel, Jörns A1 - Filella, Iolanda A1 - Fossoy, Frode A1 - Goodenough, Anne E. A1 - Hall, Stephen J. G. A1 - Hansson, Bengt A1 - Harris, Michael A1 - Hasselquist, Dennis A1 - Hickler, Thomas A1 - Jasmin Radha, Jasmin A1 - Kharouba, Heather A1 - Gabriel Martinez, Juan A1 - Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste A1 - Mills, James A. A1 - Molina-Morales, Mercedes A1 - Moksnes, Arne A1 - Ozgul, Arpat A1 - Parejo, Deseada A1 - Pilard, Philippe A1 - Poisbleau, Maud A1 - Rousset, Francois A1 - Rödel, Mark-Oliver A1 - Scott, David A1 - Carlos Senar, Juan A1 - Stefanescu, Constanti A1 - Stokke, Bard G. A1 - Kusano, Tamotsu A1 - Tarka, Maja A1 - Tarwater, Corey E. A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten A1 - Thorley, Jack A1 - Wilting, Andreas A1 - Tryjanowski, Piotr A1 - Merila, Juha A1 - Sheldon, Ben C. A1 - Moller, Anders Pape A1 - Matthysen, Erik A1 - Janzen, Fredric A1 - Dobson, F. Stephen A1 - Visser, Marcel E. A1 - Beissinger, Steven R. A1 - Courtiol, Alexandre A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie T1 - Adaptive responses of animals to climate change are most likely insufficient JF - Nature Communications N2 - Biological responses to climate change have been widely documented across taxa and regions, but it remains unclear whether species are maintaining a good match between phenotype and environment, i.e. whether observed trait changes are adaptive. Here we reviewed 10,090 abstracts and extracted data from 71 studies reported in 58 relevant publications, to assess quantitatively whether phenotypic trait changes associated with climate change are adaptive in animals. A meta-analysis focussing on birds, the taxon best represented in our dataset, suggests that global warming has not systematically affected morphological traits, but has advanced phenological traits. We demonstrate that these advances are adaptive for some species, but imperfect as evidenced by the observed consistent selection for earlier timing. Application of a theoretical model indicates that the evolutionary load imposed by incomplete adaptive responses to ongoing climate change may already be threatening the persistence of species. Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-10924-4 SN - 2041-1723 VL - 10 PB - Nature Publ. Group CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rolinski, Susanne A1 - Rammig, A. A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - von Bloh, Werner A1 - van Oijen, M. A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten T1 - A probabilistic risk assessment for the vulnerability of the European carbon cycle to weather extremes: the ecosystem perspective JF - Biogeosciences N2 - Extreme weather events are likely to occur more often under climate change and the resulting effects on ecosystems could lead to a further acceleration of climate change. But not all extreme weather events lead to extreme ecosystem response. Here, we focus on hazardous ecosystem behaviour and identify coinciding weather conditions. We use a simple probabilistic risk assessment based on time series of ecosystem behaviour and climate conditions. Given the risk assessment terminology, vulnerability and risk for the previously defined hazard are estimated on the basis of observed hazardous ecosystem behaviour. We apply this approach to extreme responses of terrestrial ecosystems to drought, defining the hazard as a negative net biome productivity over a 12-month period. We show an application for two selected sites using data for 1981-2010 and then apply the method to the pan-European scale for the same period, based on numerical modelling results (LPJmL for ecosystem behaviour; ERA-Interim data for climate). Our site-specific results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method, using the SPEI to describe the climate condition. The site in Spain provides an example of vulnerability to drought because the expected value of the SPEI is 0.4 lower for hazardous than for non-hazardous ecosystem behaviour. In northern Germany, on the contrary, the site is not vulnerable to drought because the SPEI expectation values imply wetter conditions in the hazard case than in the non-hazard case. At the pan-European scale, ecosystem vulnerability to drought is calculated in the Mediterranean and temperate region, whereas Scandinavian ecosystems are vulnerable under conditions without water shortages. These first model- based applications indicate the conceptual advantages of the proposed method by focusing on the identification of critical weather conditions for which we observe hazardous ecosystem behaviour in the analysed data set. Application of the method to empirical time series and to future climate would be important next steps to test the approach. Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1813-2015 SN - 1726-4170 SN - 1726-4189 VL - 12 IS - 6 SP - 1813 EP - 1831 PB - Copernicus CY - Göttingen ER -