TY - JOUR A1 - Süsser, Diana A1 - Martin, Nick A1 - Stavrakas, Vassilis A1 - Gaschnig, Hannes A1 - Talens-Peiró, Laura A1 - Flamos, Alexandros A1 - Madrid-López, Cristina A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Why energy models should integrate social and environmental factors BT - assessing user needs, omission impacts, and real-word accuracy in the European Union JF - Energy research & social science N2 - Energy models are used to inform and support decisions within the transition to climate neutrality. In recent years, such models have been criticised for being overly techno-centred and ignoring environmental and social factors of the energy transition. Here, we explore and illustrate the impact of ignoring such factors by comparing model results to model user needs and real-world observations. We firstly identify concrete user needs for better representation of environmental and social factors in energy modelling via interviews, a survey and a workshop. Secondly, we explore and illustrate the effects of omitting non-techno-economic factors in modelling by contrasting policy-targeted scenarios with reality in four EU case study examples. We show that by neglecting environmental and social factors, models risk generating overly optimistic and potentially misleading results, for example by suggesting transition speeds far exceeding any speeds observed, or pathways facing hard-to-overcome resource constraints. As such, modelled energy transition pathways that ignore such factors may be neither desirable nor feasible from an environmental and social perspective, and scenarios may be irrelevant in practice. Finally, we discuss a sample of recent energy modelling innovations and call for continued and increased efforts for improved approaches that better represent environmental and social factors in energy modelling and increase the relevance of energy models for informing policymaking. KW - energy modelling KW - energy planning KW - energy policy KW - ecological crisis KW - social acceptance KW - environmental impacts Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102775 SN - 2214-6296 VL - 92 SP - 102775 EP - 102775 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Süsser, Diana A1 - Gaschnig, Hannes A1 - Ceglarz, Andrzej A1 - Stavrakas, Vassilis A1 - Flamos, Alexandros A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Better suited or just more complex? BT - on the fit between user needs and modeller-driven improvements of energy system models JF - Energy N2 - Energy system models are advancing rapidly. However, it is not clear whether models are becoming better, in the sense that they address the questions that decision-makers need to be answered to make well-informed decisions. Therefore, we investigate the gap between model improvements relevant from the perspective of modellers compared to what users of model results think models should address. Thus, we ask: What are the differences between energy model improvements as perceived by modellers, and the actual needs of users of model results? To answer this question, we conducted a literature review, 32 interviews, and an online survey. Our results show that user needs and ongoing improvements of energy system models align to a large degree so that future models are indeed likely to be better than current models. We also find mismatches between the needs of modellers and users, especially in the modelling of social, behavioural and political aspects, the trade-off between model complexity and understandability, and the ways that model results should be communicated. Our findings suggest that a better understanding of user needs and closer cooperation between modellers and users is imperative to truly improve models and unlock their full potential to support the transition towards climate neutrality in Europe. KW - energy systems modelling KW - energy transition KW - user needs KW - energy policymaking KW - climate neutrality KW - European union Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121909 SN - 0360-5442 SN - 1873-6785 VL - 239 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER -