TY - JOUR A1 - Drechsler, Martin A1 - Wätzold, Frank A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - The hitchhiker's guide to generic ecological-economic modelling of land-use-based biodiversity conservation policies JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog N2 - Biodiversity loss is a result of interacting ecological and economic factors, and it must be addressed through an analysis of biodiversity conservation policies. Ecological-economic modelling is a helpful approach to this analysis, but it is also challenging since modellers often have a specific disciplinary background and tend to misrepresent either the ecological or economic aspects. Here, we introduce some of the most important concepts from both disciplines, and since the two modelling cultures also differ between the two disciplines, we present an integrated, consistent guide through all the steps of generic ecological-economic modelling, such as formulation of the research question, development of the conceptual model, model parametrisation and analysis, and interpretation of model results. Although we focus on generic models aimed at a general understanding of causes and remedies for biodiversity loss, the concepts and guidance provided here may also help in the modelling of more specific conservation problems. This guide is aimed at the intersection of three disciplines: ecology, economics and mathematical modelling, and addresses readers who have some knowledge in at least one of these disciplines and want to learn about the others to build and analyse generic ecological-economic models. Compared to textbooks, the guide focuses on the practice of modelling rather than lengthy explanations of theoretical concepts. We attempt to demonstrate that generic ecological-economic modelling does not require magical powers and instead is a manageable exercise. KW - Biodiversity KW - Conservation policy KW - Ecological-economic modelling KW - Generic modelling KW - Land use Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109861 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 465 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Drechsler, Martin T1 - Large-scale PVA modeling of insects in cultivated grasslands BT - the role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change JF - Ecology and evolution N2 - In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on the severity of climate change in subregions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m(2)) scale in 107 subregions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections, and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many subregions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle. KW - bilinear interpolation KW - climate change KW - dispersal success KW - land use KW - large marsh grasshopper KW - spatially explicit model Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.9063 SN - 2045-7758 VL - 12 IS - 7 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Leins, Johannes A. A1 - Banitz, Thomas A1 - Grimm, Volker A1 - Drechsler, Martin T1 - High-resolution PVA along large environmental gradients to model the combined effects of climate change and land use timing BT - lessons from the large marsh grasshopper JF - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and systems ecology N2 - Both climate change and land use regimes affect the viability of populations, but they are often studied separately. Moreover, population viability analyses (PVAs) often ignore the effects of large environmental gradients and use temporal resolutions that are too coarse to take into account that different stages of a population's life cycle may be affected differently by climate change. Here, we present the High-resolution Large Environmental Gradient (HiLEG) model and apply it in a PVA with daily resolution based on daily climate projections for Northwest Germany. We used the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) as the target species and investigated (1) the effects of climate change on the viability and spatial distribution of the species, (2) the influence of the timing of grassland mowing on the species and (3) the interaction between the effects of climate change and grassland mowing. The stageand cohort-based model was run for the spatially differentiated environmental conditions temperature and soil moisture across the whole study region. We implemented three climate change scenarios and analyzed the population dynamics for four consecutive 20-year periods. Climate change alone would lead to an expansion of the regions suitable for the LMG, as warming accelerates development and due to reduced drought stress. However, in combination with land use, the timing of mowing was crucial, as this disturbance causes a high mortality rate in the aboveground life stages. Assuming the same date of mowing throughout the region, the impact on viability varied greatly between regions due to the different climate conditions. The regional negative effects of the mowing date can be divided into five phases: (1) In early spring, the populations were largely unaffected in all the regions; (2) between late spring and early summer, they were severely affected only in warm regions; (3) in summer, all the populations were severely affected so that they could hardly survive; (4) between late summer and early autumn, they were severely affected in cold regions; and (5) in autumn, the populations were equally affected across all regions. The duration and start of each phase differed slightly depending on the climate change scenario and simulation period, but overall, they showed the same pattern. Our model can be used to identify regions of concern and devise management recommendations. The model can be adapted to the life cycle of different target species, climate projections and disturbance regimes. We show with our adaption of the HiLEG model that high-resolution PVAs and applications on large environmental gradients can be reconciled to develop conservation strategies capable of dealing with multiple stressors. KW - Climate change KW - Land use KW - Population viability analysis KW - Stage-based model KW - High resolution KW - Environmental gradients Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109355 SN - 0304-3800 SN - 1872-7026 VL - 440 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER -