TY - JOUR A1 - Weber, Michael H. A1 - Abu-Ayyash, Khalil A1 - Abueladas, Abdel-Rahman A1 - Agnon, Amotz A1 - Al-Amoush, H. A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Bartov, Yosef A1 - Baumann, M. A1 - Ben-Avraham, Zvi A1 - Bock, Günter A1 - Bribach, Jens A1 - El-Kelani, R. A1 - Forster, A. A1 - Förster, Hans-Jürgen A1 - Frieslander, U. A1 - Garfunkel, Zvi A1 - Grunewald, Steffen A1 - Gotze, Hans-Jürgen A1 - Haak, Volker A1 - Haberland, Christian A1 - Hassouneh, Mohammed A1 - Helwig, S. A1 - Hofstetter, Alfons A1 - Jackel, K. H. A1 - Kesten, Dagmar A1 - Kind, Rainer A1 - Maercklin, Nils A1 - Mechie, James A1 - Mohsen, Amjad A1 - Neubauer, F. M. A1 - Oberhänsli, Roland A1 - Qabbani, I. A1 - Ritter, O. A1 - Rumpker, G. A1 - Rybakov, M. A1 - Ryberg, Trond A1 - Scherbaum, Frank A1 - Schmidt, J. A1 - Schulze, A. A1 - Sobolev, Stephan Vladimir A1 - Stiller, M. A1 - Th, T1 - The crustal structure of the Dead Sea Transform N2 - To address one of the central questions of plate tectonics-How do large transform systems work and what are their typical features?-seismic investigations across the Dead Sea Transform (DST), the boundary between the African and Arabian plates in the Middle East, were conducted for the first time. A major component of these investigations was a combined reflection/ refraction survey across the territories of Palestine, Israel and Jordan. The main results of this study are: (1) The seismic basement is offset by 3-5 km under the DST, (2) The DST cuts through the entire crust, broadening in the lower crust, (3) Strong lower crustal reflectors are imaged only on one side of the DST, (4) The seismic velocity sections show a steady increase in the depth of the crust-mantle transition (Moho) from 26 km at the Mediterranean to 39 km under the Jordan highlands, with only a small but visible, asymmetric topography of the Moho under the DST. These observations can be linked to the left-lateral movement of 105 km of the two plates in the last 17 Myr, accompanied by strong deformation within a narrow zone cutting through the entire crust. Comparing the DST and the San Andreas Fault (SAF) system, a strong asymmetry in subhorizontal lower crustal reflectors and a deep reaching deformation zone both occur around the DST and the SAF. The fact that such lower crustal reflectors and deep deformation zones are observed in such different transform systems suggests that these structures are possibly fundamental features of large transform plate boundaries Y1 - 2004 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tilmann, F. A1 - Zhang, Y. A1 - Moreno, M. A1 - Saul, J. A1 - Eckelmann, F. A1 - Palo, M. A1 - Deng, Z. A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Chen, K. A1 - Báez, Juan Carlos A1 - Schurr, B. A1 - Wang, R. A1 - Dahm, Torsten T1 - The 2015 Illapel earthquake, central Chile: A type case for a characteristic earthquake? JF - Geophysical research letters N2 - On 16 September 2015, the M-W = 8.2 Illapel megathrust earthquake ruptured the Central Chilean margin. Combining inversions of displacement measurements and seismic waveforms with high frequency (HF) teleseismic backprojection, we derive a comprehensive description of the rupture, which also predicts deep ocean tsunami wave heights. We further determine moment tensors and obtain accurate depth estimates for the aftershock sequence. The earthquake nucleated near the coast but then propagated to the north and updip, attaining a peak slip of 5-6 m. In contrast, HF seismic radiation is mostly emitted downdip of the region of intense slip and arrests earlier than the long period rupture, indicating smooth slip along the shallow plate interface in the final phase. A superficially similar earthquake in 1943 with a similar aftershock zone had a much shorter source time function, which matches the duration of HF seismic radiation in the recent event, indicating that the 1943 event lacked the shallow slip. Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066963 SN - 0094-8276 SN - 1944-8007 VL - 43 SP - 574 EP - 583 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Merz, Bruno A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Kunz, Michael A1 - Pittore, Massimiliano A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Bresch, David N. A1 - Domeisen, Daniela I. A1 - Feser, Frauke A1 - Koszalka, Inga A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Pantillon, Florian A1 - Parolai, Stefano A1 - Pinto, Joaquim G. A1 - Punge, Heinz Jürgen A1 - Rivalta, Eleonora A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Strehlow, Karen A1 - Weisse, Ralf A1 - Wurpts, Andreas T1 - Impact forecasting to support emergency management of natural hazards JF - Reviews of geophysics N2 - Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties, and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location, and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services, or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a twofold advantage: It would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multihazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state of the art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact-based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. KW - impact forecasting KW - natural hazards KW - early warning Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1029/2020RG000704 SN - 8755-1209 SN - 1944-9208 VL - 58 IS - 4 PB - American Geophysical Union CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Liu, Sibiao A1 - Sobolev, Stephan A1 - Babeyko, Andrey A1 - Pons, Michaël T1 - Controls of the foreland deformation pattern in the orogen-foreland shortening system BT - constraints from high-resolution geodynamic models JF - Tectonics N2 - Controls on the deformation pattern (shortening mode and tectonic style) of orogenic forelands during lithospheric shortening remain poorly understood. Here, we use high-resolution 2D thermomechanical models to demonstrate that orogenic crustal thickness and foreland lithospheric thickness significantly control the shortening mode in the foreland. Pure-shear shortening occurs when the orogenic crust is not thicker than the foreland crust or thick, but the foreland lithosphere is thin (<70-80 km, as in the Puna foreland case). Conversely, simple-shear shortening, characterized by foreland underthrusting beneath the orogen, arises when the orogenic crust is much thicker. This thickened crust results in high gravitational potential energy in the orogen, which triggers the migration of deformation to the foreland under further shortening. Our models present fully thick-skinned, fully thin-skinned, and intermediate tectonic styles in the foreland. The first tectonics forms in a pure-shear shortening mode whereas the others require a simple-shear mode and the presence of thick (>similar to 4 km) sediments that are mechanically weak (friction coefficient