TY - JOUR A1 - Krol, Maarten A1 - Jaeger, Annekathrin A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Güntner, Andreas T1 - Integrated modelling of climate, water, soil, agricultural and socio-economic processes: A general introduction of the methodology and some exemplary results from the semi-arid north-east of Brazil JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - Many semi-arid regions are characterised by water scarcity and vulnerability of natural resources, pronounced climatic variability and social stress. Integrated studies including climatotogy, hydrology, and socio-econornic studies are required both for analysing the dynamic natural conditions and to assess possible strategies to make semi-arid regions Less vulnerable to the present and changing climate. The model introduced here dynamically describes the retationships between climate forcing, water availability, agriculture and selected societal processes. The model has been tailored to simulate the rather complex situation in the semi-and north-eastern Brazil in a quantitative manner including the sensitivity to external forcing, such as climate change. The selected results presented show the general functioning of the integrated model, with a primary focus on climate change impacts. It becomes evident that due to Large differences in regional climate scenarios, it is still impossible to give quantitative values for the most probable development, e.g., to assign probabilities to the simulated results. However, it becomes clear that water is a very crucial factor, and that an efficient and ecologically sound water management is a key question for the further development of that semi-arid region. The simulation results show that, independent of the differences in climate change scenarios, rain-fed farming is more vulnerable to drought impacts compared to irrigated farming. However, the capacity of irrigation and other water infrastructure systems to enhance resilience in respect to climatic fluctuations is significantly constrained given a significant negative precipitation trend. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - integrated modelling KW - integrated river basin management KW - water resources management KW - semi-arid hydrology KW - climate change Y1 - 2006 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2005.12.021 SN - 0022-1694 VL - 328 IS - 3-4 SP - 417 EP - 431 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Drewes, Julia A1 - Moreiras, Stella A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Permafrost activity and atmospheric warming in the Argentinian Andes JF - Geomorphology : an international journal on pure and applied geomorphology N2 - Rock glaciers are permafrost or glacial landforms of debris and ice that deform under the influence of gravity. Recent estimates hold that, in the semiarid Chilean Andes for example, active rock glaciers store more water than glaciers. However, little is known about how many rock glaciers might decay because of global warming and how much this decay might contribute to water and sediment release. We investigated an inventory of >6500 rock glaciers in the Argentinian Andes, spanning the climatic gradient from the Desert Andes to cold-temperate Tierra del Fuego. We used active rock glaciers as a diagnostic of permafrost, assuming that the toes mark the 0 degrees C isotherm in climate scenarios for the twenty-first century and their impact on freezing conditions near the rock glacier toes. We find that, under future worst case warming, up to 95% of rock glaciers in the southern Desert Andes and in the Central Andes will rest in areas above 0 degrees C and that this freezing level might move up more than twice as much (similar to 500 m) as during the entire Holocene (similar to 200 m). Many active rock glaciers are already well below the current freezing level and exemplify how local controls may confound regional prognoses. A Bayesian Multifactor Analysis of Variance further shows that only in the Central Andes are the toes of active rock glaciers credibly higher than those of inactive ones. Elsewhere in the Andes, active and inactive rock glaciers occupy indistinguishable elevation bands, regardless of aspect, the formation mechanism, or shape of rock glaciers. The state of rock glacier activity predicts differences in elevations of toes to 140 m at best so that regional inference of the distribution of discontinuous permafrost from rock-glacier toes cannot be more accurate than this in the Argentinian Andes. We conclude that the Central Andes-where rock glaciers are largest, cover the most area, and have a greater density than glaciers-is likely to experience the most widespread disturbance to the thermal regime of the twenty-first century. (C) 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. KW - rock glacier KW - Argentina KW - permafrost KW - climate change Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2018.09.005 SN - 0169-555X SN - 1872-695X VL - 323 SP - 13 EP - 24 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Colombo, Stefanie M. A1 - Wacker, Alexander A1 - Parrish, Christopher C. A1 - Kainz, Martin J. A1 - Arts, Michael T. T1 - A fundamental dichotomy in long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acid abundance between and within marine and terrestrial ecosystems JF - Environmental reviews = Dossiers environnement N2 - Polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA), especially long-chain (i.e., >= 20 carbons) polyunsaturated fatty acids (LC-PUFA), are fundamental to the health and survival of marine and terrestrial organisms. Therefore, it is imperative that we gain a better understanding of their origin, abundance, and transfer between and within these ecosystems. We evaluated the natural variation in PUFA distribution and abundance that exists between and within these ecosystems by amassing and analyzing, using multivariate and analysis of variance (ANOVA) methods, >3000 fatty acid (FA) profiles from marine and terrestrial organisms. There was a clear dichotomy in LC-PUFA abundance between organisms in marine and terrestrial ecosystems, mainly driven by the C-18 PUFA in terrestrial organisms and omega-3 (n-3) LC-PUFA in marine organisms. The PUFA content of an organism depended on both its biome (marine vs terrestrial) and taxonomic group. Within the marine biome, the PUFA content varied among taxonomic groups. PUFA content of marine organisms was dependent on both geographic zone (i.e., latitude, and thus broadly related to temperature) and trophic level (a function of diet). The contents of n-3 LC-PUFA were higher in polar and temperate marine organisms than those from the tropics. Therefore, we conclude that, on a per capita basis, high latitude marine organisms provide a disproportionately large global share of these essential nutrients to consumers, including terrestrial predators. Our analysis also hints at how climate change, and other anthropogenic stressors, might act to negatively impact the global distribution and abundance of n-3 LC-PUFA within marine ecosystems and on the terrestrial consumers that depend on these subsidies. KW - climate change KW - food webs KW - omega-3 KW - polyunsaturated fatty acids KW - trophic ecology Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1139/er-2016-0062 SN - 1208-6053 SN - 1181-8700 VL - 25 SP - 163 EP - 174 PB - NRC Research Press CY - Ottawa ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Markovic, Danijela A1 - Carrizo, Savrina F. A1 - Kaercher, Oskar A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - David, Jonathan N. W. T1 - Vulnerability of European freshwater catchments to climate change JF - Global change biology N2 - Climate change is expected to exacerbate the current threats to freshwater ecosystems, yet multifaceted studies on the potential impacts of climate change on freshwater biodiversity at scales that inform management planning are lacking. The aim of this study was to fill this void through the development of a novel framework for assessing climate change vulnerability tailored to freshwater ecosystems. The three dimensions of climate change vulnerability are as follows: (i) exposure to climate change, (ii) sensitivity to altered environmental conditions and (iii) resilience potential. Our vulnerability framework includes 1685 freshwater species of plants, fishes, molluscs, odonates, amphibians, crayfish and turtles alongside key features within and between catchments, such as topography and connectivity. Several methodologies were used to combine these dimensions across a variety of future climate change models and scenarios. The resulting indices were overlaid to assess the vulnerability of European freshwater ecosystems at the catchment scale (18 783 catchments). The Balkan Lakes Ohrid and Prespa and Mediterranean islands emerge as most vulnerable to climate change. For the 2030s, we showed a consensus among the applied methods whereby up to 573 lake and river catchments are highly vulnerable to climate change. The anthropogenic disruption of hydrological habitat connectivity by dams is the major factor reducing climate change resilience. A gap analysis demonstrated that the current European protected area network covers <25% of the most vulnerable catchments. Practical steps need to be taken to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity under climate change. Priority should be placed on enhancing stakeholder cooperation at the major basin scale towards preventing further degradation of freshwater ecosystems and maintaining connectivity among catchments. The catchments identified as most vulnerable to climate change provide preliminary targets for development of climate change conservation management and mitigation strategies. KW - catchment connectivity KW - climate change KW - exposure KW - freshwater biodiversity KW - gap analysis KW - resilience KW - sensitivity KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13657 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 23 SP - 3567 EP - 3580 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wieczorek, Mareike A1 - Kruse, Stefan A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia A1 - Kolmogorov, Alexei A1 - Nikolaev, Anatoly N. A1 - Heinrich, Ingo A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Zibulski, Romy A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Dissimilar responses of larch stands in northern Siberia to increasing temperatures-a field and simulation based study JF - Ecology : a publication of the Ecological Society of America N2 - Arctic and alpine treelines worldwide differ in their reactions to climate change. A northward advance of or densification within the treeline ecotone will likely influence climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms. In our study, which was conducted in the Taimyr Depression in the North Siberian Lowlands, w present a combined field-and model-based approach helping us to better understand the population processes involved in the responses of the whole treeline ecotone, spanning from closed forest to single-tree tundra, to climate warming. Using information on stand structure, tree age, and seed quality and quantity from seven sites, we investigate effects of intra-specific competition and seed availability on the specific impact of recent climate warming on larch stands. Field data show that tree density is highest in the forest-tundra, and average tree size decreases from closed forest to single-tree tundra. Age-structure analyses indicate that the trees in the closed forest and forest-tundra have been present for at least similar to 240 yr. At all sites except the most southerly ones, past establishment is positively correlated with regional temperature increase. In the single-tree tundra, however, a change in growth form from krummholz to erect trees, beginning similar to 130 yr ago, rather than establishment date has been recorded. Seed mass decreases from south to north, while seed quantity increases. Simulations with LAVESI (Larix Vegetation Simulator) further suggest that relative density changes strongly in response to a warming signal in the forest-tundra while intra-specific competition limits densification in the closed forest and seed limitation hinders densification in the single-tree tundra. We find striking differences in strength and timing of responses to recent climate warming. While forest-tundra stands recently densified, recruitment is almost non-existent at the southern and northern end of the ecotone due to autecological processes. Palaeo-treelines may therefore be inappropriate to infer past temperature changes at a fine scale. Moreover, a lagged treeline response to past warming will, via feedback mechanisms, influence climate change in the future. KW - climate change KW - closed forest KW - dendroecology KW - forest change KW - latitude KW - recruitment KW - tundra KW - vegetation model Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ecy.1887 SN - 0012-9658 SN - 1939-9170 VL - 98 SP - 2343 EP - 2355 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Levermann, Anders A1 - Auffhammer, Maximilian T1 - North-south polarization of European electricity consumption under future warming JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America N2 - There is growing empirical evidence that anthropogenic climate change will substantially affect the electric sector. Impacts will stem both from the supply sidethrough the mitigation of greenhouse gasesand from the demand sidethrough adaptive responses to a changing environment. Here we provide evidence of a polarization of both peak load and overall electricity consumption under future warming for the worlds third-largest electricity marketthe 35 countries of Europe. We statistically estimate country-level doseresponse functions between daily peak/total electricity load and ambient temperature for the period 2006-2012. After removing the impact of nontemperature confounders and normalizing the residual load data for each country, we estimate a common doseresponse function, which we use to compute national electricity loads for temperatures that lie outside each countrys currently observed temperature range. To this end, we impose end-of-century climate on todays European economies following three different greenhouse-gas concentration trajectories, ranging from ambitious climate-change mitigationin line with the Paris agreementto unabated climate change. We find significant increases in average daily peak load and overall electricity consumption in southern and western Europe (similar to 3 to similar to 7% for Portugal and Spain) and significant decreases in northern Europe (similar to-6 to similar to-2% for Sweden and Norway). While the projected effect on European total consumption is nearly zero, the significant polarization and seasonal shifts in peak demand and consumption have important ramifications for the location of costly peak-generating capacity, transmission infrastructure, and the design of energy-efficiency policy and storage capacity. KW - electricity consumption KW - peak load KW - climate change KW - adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704339114 SN - 0027-8424 VL - 114 SP - E7910 EP - E7918 PB - National Acad. of Sciences CY - Washington ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wenz, Leonie A1 - Kalkuhl, Matthias A1 - Steckel, Jan Christoph A1 - Creutzig, Felix T1 - Teleconnected food supply shocks JF - Environmental research letters N2 - The 2008-2010 food crisis might have been a harbinger of fundamental climate-induced food crises with geopolitical implications. Heat-wave-induced yield losses in Russia and resulting export restrictions led to increases in market prices for wheat across the Middle East, likely contributing to the Arab Spring. With ongoing climate change, temperatures and temperature variability will rise, leading to higher uncertainty in yields for major nutritional crops. Here we investigate which countries are most vulnerable to teleconnected supply-shocks, i.e. where diets strongly rely on the import of wheat, maize, or rice, and where a large share of the population is living in poverty. We find that the Middle East is most sensitive to teleconnected supply shocks in wheat, Central America to supply shocks in maize, and Western Africa to supply shocks in rice. Weighing with poverty levels, Sub-Saharan Africa is most affected. Altogether, a simultaneous 10% reduction in exports of wheat, rice, and maize would reduce caloric intake of 55 million people living in poverty by about 5%. Export bans in major producing regions would put up to 200 million people below the poverty line at risk, 90% of which live in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results suggest that a region-specific combination of national increases in agricultural productivity and diversification of trade partners and diets can effectively decrease future food security risks. KW - food security KW - trade shocks KW - vulnerability KW - climate change KW - teleconnections Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/035007 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kellermann, Patric A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Kundela, Guenther A1 - Dosio, Alessandro A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Frequency Analysis of Critical Meteorological Conditions in a Changing ClimateAssessing Future Implications for Railway Transportation in Austria JF - Climate : open access journal N2 - Meteorological extreme events have great potential for damaging railway infrastructure and posing risks to the safety of train passengers. In the future, climate change will presumably have serious implications on meteorological hazards in the Alpine region. Hence, attaining insights on future frequencies of meteorological extremes with relevance for the railway operation in Austria is required in the context of a comprehensive and sustainable natural hazard management plan of the railway operator. In this study, possible impacts of climate change on the frequencies of so-called critical meteorological conditions (CMCs) between the periods 1961-1990 and 2011-2040 are analyzed. Thresholds for such CMCs have been defined by the railway operator and used in its weather monitoring and early warning system. First, the seasonal climate change signals for air temperature and precipitation in Austria are described on the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for Europe. Subsequently, the RCM-ensemble was used to investigate changes in the frequency of CMCs. Finally, the sensitivity of results is analyzed with varying threshold values for the CMCs. Results give robust indications for an all-season air temperature rise, but show no clear tendency in average precipitation. The frequency analyses reveal an increase in intense rainfall events and heat waves, whereas heavy snowfall and cold days are likely to decrease. Furthermore, results indicate that frequencies of CMCs are rather sensitive to changes of thresholds. It thus emphasizes the importance to carefully define, validate, andif neededto adapt the thresholds that are used in the weather monitoring and warning system of the railway operator. For this, continuous and standardized documentation of damaging events and near-misses is a pre-requisite. KW - climate change KW - critical meteorological condition KW - frequency analysis KW - natural hazard management KW - railway transportation Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/cli4020025 SN - 2225-1154 VL - 4 SP - 914 EP - 931 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schneider, Birgit T1 - Burning worlds of cartography: a critical approach to climate cosmograms of the Anthropocene JF - Geo : geography and environment N2 - Climate science today makes use of a variety of red globes to explore and communicate findings. These transform the iconography which informs this image: the idealised, even mythical vision of the blue, vulnerable and perfect marble is impaired by the application of the colours yellow and red. Since only predictions that employ a lot of red seem to exist, spectators are confronted with the message that the future Earth that might turn out as envisaged here is undesirable. Here intuitively powerful narrations of the end of the world may connect. By employing methods of art history and visual analysis, and building on examples from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and future scenario maps, this article explores how burning world images bear - intentionally or not - elements of horror and shock. My question explored here is as follows: should 'burning world' images be understood as a new and powerful cosmology? KW - cartography KW - visualisation KW - climate change KW - whole Earth images Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/geo2.27 SN - 2054-4049 VL - 3 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Geiger, Tobias A1 - Frieler, Katja A1 - Levermann, Anders T1 - High-income does not protect against hurricane losses JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Damage due to tropical cyclones accounts for more than 50% of all meteorologically-induced economic losses worldwide. Their nominal impact is projected to increase substantially as the exposed population grows, per capita income increases, and anthropogenic climate change manifests. So far, historical losses due to tropical cyclones have been found to increase less than linearly with a nation's affected gross domestic product (GDP). Here we show that for the United States this scaling is caused by a sub-linear increase with affected population while relative losses scale super-linearly with per capita income. The finding is robust across a multitude of empirically derived damage models that link the storm's wind speed, exposed population, and per capita GDP to reported losses. The separation of both socio-economic predictors strongly affects the projection of potential future hurricane losses. Separating the effects of growth in population and per-capita income, per hurricane losses with respect to national GDP are projected to triple by the end of the century under unmitigated climate change, while they are estimated to decrease slightly without the separation. KW - climate change KW - tropical cyclones KW - damage KW - meteorological extremes KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084012 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Di Capua, Giorgia A1 - Coumou, Dim T1 - Changes in meandering of the Northern Hemisphere circulation JF - Environmental research letters N2 - Strong waves in the mid-latitude circulation have been linked to extreme surface weather and thus changes in waviness could have serious consequences for society. Several theories have been proposed which could alter waviness, including tropical sea surface temperature anomalies or rapid climate change in the Arctic. However, so far it remains unclear whether any changes in waviness have actually occurred. Here we propose a novel meandering index which captures the maximum waviness in geopotential height contours at any given day, using all information of the full spatial position of each contour. Data are analysed on different time scale (from daily to 11 day running means) and both on hemispheric and regional scales. Using quantile regressions, we analyse how seasonal distributions of this index have changed over 1979-2015. The most robust changes are detected for autumn which has seen a pronounced increase in strongly meandering patterns at the hemispheric level as well as over the Eurasian sector. In summer for both the hemisphere and the Eurasian sector, significant downward trends in meandering are detected on daily timescales which is consistent with the recently reported decrease in summer storm track activity. The American sector shows the strongest increase in meandering in the warm season: in particular for 11 day running mean data, indicating enhanced amplitudes of quasi-stationary waves. Our findings have implications for both the occurrence of recent cold spells and persistent heat waves in the mid-latitudes. KW - Rossby waves KW - climate change KW - extreme events KW - mid-latitudes flow Y1 - 2016 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094028 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 11 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - THES A1 - Hanschmann, Raffael Tino T1 - Stalling the engine? EU climate politics after the ‘Great Recession’ T1 - Den Motor abgewürgt? EU-Klimapolitik nach der Großen Rezession BT - investigating the impact of economic shocks on EU climate policy-making in three case studies BT - eine Untersuchung des Einflusses von Wirtschaftskrisen auf Prozesse in der EU-Klimapolitik in drei Fallstudien N2 - This dissertation investigates the impact of the economic and fiscal crisis starting in 2008 on EU climate policy-making. While the overall number of adopted greenhouse gas emission reduction policies declined in the crisis aftermath, EU lawmakers decided to introduce new or tighten existing regulations in some important policy domains. Existing knowledge about the crisis impact on EU legislative decision-making cannot explain these inconsistencies. In response, this study develops an actor-centred conceptual framework based on rational choice institutionalism that provides a micro-level link to explain how economic crises translate into altered policy-making patterns. The core theoretical argument draws on redistributive conflicts, arguing that tensions between ‘beneficiaries’ and ‘losers’ of a regulatory initiative intensify during economic crises and spill over to the policy domain. To test this hypothesis and using social network analysis, this study analyses policy processes in three case studies: The introduction of carbon dioxide emission limits for passenger cars, the expansion of the EU Emissions Trading System to aviation, and the introduction of a regulatory framework for biofuels. The key finding is that an economic shock causes EU policy domains to polarise politically, resulting in intensified conflict and more difficult decision-making. The results also show that this process of political polarisation roots in the industry that is the subject of the regulation, and that intergovernmental bargaining among member states becomes more important, but also more difficult in times of crisis. N2 - Diese Dissertation untersucht den Einfluss der in 2008 beginnenden globalen Wirtschaftskrise auf die Prozesse der EU-Klimapolitik. Während die Zahl der verabschiedeten Gesetze zur Treibhausgasreduktion nach Krisenausbruch insgesamt sank, entschieden die EU-Gesetzgeber, in mehreren wichtigen Politikfeldern neue Regulierungen einzuführen oder existierende zu verschärfen. Bestehendes Wissen zum Einfluss der Krise auf EU-Gesetzgebungsprozesse kann diese Inkonsistenzen nicht erklären. Daher entwickelt diese Arbeit ein auf Rational-Choice-Institutionalismus basierendes konzeptionelles Gerüst, das auf der Mikro-Ebene eine kausale Verbindung zwischen Wirtschaftskrise und veränderten Politikprozessen herstellt. Das zentrale theoretische Argument beruht auf Verteilungskonflikten innerhalb der regulierten Wirtschaftsbranchen: Die Spannung zwischen „Nutznießern“ und „Verlierern“ einer geplanten Regulierung intensiviert sich in Krisenzeiten und setzt sich im politischen Raum fort. Diese Hypothese wird an drei Fallstudien mittels sozialer Netzwerkanalyse getestet. Die drei Fallstudien untersuchen politische Entscheidungsprozesse in den folgenden EU-Politikfeldern: Kohlenstoffdioxid-Emissionsgrenzen für PKW, die Ausweitung des Emissionshandels auf Flugverkehr und die Einführung eines Regulierungsrahmens für Biokraftstoffe. Die wichtigste Erkenntnis der Untersuchung ist, dass makroökonomische Schocks eine Polarisierung der politischen Interessen innerhalb eines Politikfeldes auslösen, dadurch Konflikte intensivieren und letztlich Entscheidungsfindungen erschweren. Die Ergebnisse zeigen zudem, dass dieser Polarisierungsprozess in der regulierten Wirtschaftsbranche wurzelt. Außerdem werden Verhandlungen zwischen den Regierungen der Mitgliedsstaaten in Krisenzeiten wichtiger, aber auch schwieriger.  KW - EU KW - European Union KW - policy-making KW - network analysis KW - policy preferences KW - economic crisis KW - crisis KW - climate KW - climate change KW - climate policy KW - climate politics KW - environmental policy KW - EU KW - Europäische Union KW - Politikgestaltung KW - Netzwerkanalyse KW - Politikpräferenzen KW - Wirtschaftskrise KW - Krise KW - Klima KW - Klimawandel KW - Klimapolitik KW - Umweltpolitik Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-440441 ER - TY - THES A1 - Veh, Georg T1 - Outburst floods from moraine-dammed lakes in the Himalayas T1 - Ausbruchsfluten von moränen-gestauten Seen im Himalaya BT - detection, frequency, and hazard BT - Erkennung, Häufigkeit, und Gefährdung N2 - The Himalayas are a region that is most dependent, but also frequently prone to hazards from changing meltwater resources. This mountain belt hosts the highest mountain peaks on earth, has the largest reserve of ice outside the polar regions, and is home to a rapidly growing population in recent decades. One source of hazard has attracted scientific research in particular in the past two decades: glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) occurred rarely, but mostly with fatal and catastrophic consequences for downstream communities and infrastructure. Such GLOFs can suddenly release several million cubic meters of water from naturally impounded meltwater lakes. Glacial lakes have grown in number and size by ongoing glacial mass losses in the Himalayas. Theory holds that enhanced meltwater production may increase GLOF frequency, but has never been tested so far. The key challenge to test this notion are the high altitudes of >4000 m, at which lakes occur, making field work impractical. Moreover, flood waves can attenuate rapidly in mountain channels downstream, so that many GLOFs have likely gone unnoticed in past decades. Our knowledge on GLOFs is hence likely biased towards larger, destructive cases, which challenges a detailed quantification of their frequency and their response to atmospheric warming. Robustly quantifying the magnitude and frequency of GLOFs is essential for risk assessment and management along mountain rivers, not least to implement their return periods in building design codes. Motivated by this limited knowledge of GLOF frequency and hazard, I developed an algorithm that efficiently detects GLOFs from satellite images. In essence, this algorithm classifies land cover in 30 years (~1988–2017) of continuously recorded Landsat images over the Himalayas, and calculates likelihoods for rapidly shrinking water bodies in the stack of land cover images. I visually assessed such detected tell-tale sites for sediment fans in the river channel downstream, a second key diagnostic of GLOFs. Rigorous tests and validation with known cases from roughly 10% of the Himalayas suggested that this algorithm is robust against frequent image noise, and hence capable to identify previously unknown GLOFs. Extending the search radius to the entire Himalayan mountain range revealed some 22 newly detected GLOFs. I thus more than doubled the existing GLOF count from 16 previously known cases since 1988, and found a dominant cluster of GLOFs in the Central and Eastern Himalayas (Bhutan and Eastern Nepal), compared to the rarer affected ranges in the North. Yet, the total of 38 GLOFs showed no change in the annual frequency, so that the activity of GLOFs per unit glacial lake area has decreased in the past 30 years. I discussed possible drivers for this finding, but left a further attribution to distinct GLOF-triggering mechanisms open to future research. This updated GLOF frequency was the key input for assessing GLOF hazard for the entire Himalayan mountain belt and several subregions. I used standard definitions in flood hydrology, describing hazard as the annual exceedance probability of a given flood peak discharge [m3 s-1] or larger at the breach location. I coupled the empirical frequency of GLOFs per region to simulations of physically plausible peak discharges from all existing ~5,000 lakes in the Himalayas. Using an extreme-value model, I could hence calculate flood return periods. I found that the contemporary 100-year GLOF discharge (the flood level that is reached or exceeded on average once in 100 years) is 20,600+2,200/–2,300 m3 s-1 for the entire Himalayas. Given the spatial and temporal distribution of historic GLOFs, contemporary GLOF hazard is highest in the Eastern Himalayas, and lower for regions with rarer GLOF abundance. I also calculated GLOF hazard for some 9,500 overdeepenings, which could expose and fill with water, if all Himalayan glaciers have melted eventually. Assuming that the current GLOF rate remains unchanged, the 100-year GLOF discharge could double (41,700+5,500/–4,700 m3 s-1), while the regional GLOF hazard may increase largest in the Karakoram. To conclude, these three stages–from GLOF detection, to analysing their frequency and estimating regional GLOF hazard–provide a framework for modern GLOF hazard assessment. Given the rapidly growing population, infrastructure, and hydropower projects in the Himalayas, this thesis assists in quantifying the purely climate-driven contribution to hazard and risk from GLOFs. N2 - In kaum einer anderen Region treten Abhängigkeit, Nutzen und Gefährdung von Gletscher- und Schneeschmelze so deutlich zu Tage wie im Himalaya. Naturgefahren sind hier allgegenwärtig, wobei eine die Wissenschaftler in den vergangen zwei Jahrzehnten besonders beschäftigte: Ausbrüche von Gletscherseen traten in der Vergangenheit zwar selten, aber meist mit katastrophalen Konsequenzen für die darunterliegenden Berggemeinden auf. Gletscherseeausbrüche (englisches Akronym GLOFs – glacial lake outburst floods) beschreiben den plötzlichen Ausfluss von teils mehreren Millionen Kubikmetern Wasser aus natürlich gedämmten Schmelzwasserseen. Anhaltender Gletscherrückgang in vergangenen Jahrzehnten schuf mehrere tausend Hochgebirgsseen, mit ununterbrochenem Wachstum in Anzahl und Fläche, was den Schluss auf ein möglicherweise vermehrtes Auftreten von GLOFs nahelegte. Diese suggerierte Zunahme von GLOFs konnte jedoch bisher weder getestet noch bestätigt werden, vor allem weil Seen überwiegend jenseits von 4,000 m üNN entstehen, was Feldstudien dort erschwert. Unser Wissen über GLOFs ist daher möglicherweise zu größeren, schadensreichen Ereignissen verschoben, wodurch ihre aktuelle Frequenz, und letztlich auch ihr Zusammenhang mit dem Klimawandel, nur schwer quantifizierbar sind. Mit welcher Wiederkehrrate GLOFs auftreten ist nicht zuletzt entscheidend für Risikoanalyse und -management entlang von Flüssen. Um einer Unterschätzung der tatsächlichen GLOF-Aktivität entgegenzuwirken, entwickelte ich einen Algorithmus, der GLOFs automatisch aus Satellitenbildern detektiert. Der Algorithmus greift auf etwa 30 Jahre kontinuierlich aufgenommene Landsat-Bilder (~1988-2017) zu, und berechnet letztlich die Wahrscheinlichkeit, ob Wasserkörper rasch innerhalb dieser Bildzeitreihe geschrumpft sind. An solchen Stellen suchte ich nach Sedimentverlagerungen im Gerinne flussabwärts, was ein zweites Hauptkriterium für GLOFs ist. Tests und Validierung in etwa 10% des Himalayas bestätigten, dass die Methode robust gegenüber atmosphärischen Störeffekten ist. Mit dem Ziel bisher unbekannte GLOFs zu entdecken, wendete ich daher diesen Algorithmus auf den gesamten Himalaya an. Die Suche ergab 22 neu entdeckte GLOFs, was das bestehende Inventar von 16 bekannten GLOFs seit 1988 mehr als verdoppelte. Das aktualisierte räumliche Verbreitungsmuster bestätigte einmal mehr, dass GLOFs vermehrt im Zentral- und Osthimalaya (Bhutan und Ost-Nepal) auftraten, wohingegen im Norden deutlich weniger GLOFs stattfanden. Entgegen der häufigen Annahme stellte ich jedoch fest, dass die jährliche Häufigkeit von GLOFs in den letzten drei Jahrzehnten konstant blieb. Dadurch hat das Verhältnis von GLOFs pro Einheit See(-fläche) in diesem Zeitraum sogar abgenommen. Dieses räumlich aufgelöste GLOF-Inventar bot nun die Möglichkeit, das Gefährdungspotential durch GLOFs für den gesamten Himalaya und einzelne Regionen zu berechnen. Dafür verwendete ich die in der Hochwasseranalyse gebräuchliche Definition von Gefährdung, welche die jährliche Überschreitungswahrscheinlichkeit einer gewissen Abflussmenge, in diesem Fall des Spitzenabflusses [m3 s-1] am Dammbruch, beschreibt. Das GLOF-Inventar liefert demnach die zeitliche Wahrscheinlichkeit für das Auftreten von GLOFs, während Simulationen von möglichen Spitzenabflüssen für alle heute existierenden ~5,000 Seen im Himalaya die zu erwarteten Magnituden beisteuerten. Mit Extremwertstatistik lässt sich so die mittlere Wiederkehrzeit dieser Spitzenabflüsse errechnen. Ich fand heraus, dass der 100-jährliche Abfluss (die Flutmagnitude, die im Durchschnitt einmal in 100 Jahren erreicht oder überschritten wird) derzeit bei rund 20,600+2,200/–2,300 m³ s-1 für den gesamten Himalaya liegt. Entsprechend der heutigen räumlichen und zeitlichen Verteilung von GLOFs ist die Gefährdung im Osthimalaya am höchsten und in Regionen mit wenig dokumentierten GLOFs vergleichsweise niedrig. Für ein Szenario, in dem der gesamte Himalaya in Zukunft eisfrei sein könnte, errechnete ich zudem das Gefährdungspotential von ~9,500 Übertiefungen unterhalb der heutigen Gletschern, die sich nach deren Abschmelzen mit Wasser füllen könnten. Angenommen, dass die zukünftige GLOF-Rate der heutigen entspricht, könnte der 100-jährliche Abfluss sich mehr als verdoppeln (41,700+5,500/–4,700 m3 s-1), wobei der stärkste regionale Anstieg für den Karakorum zu erwarten wäre. Zusammenfassend formen diese drei Schritte–von der Detektion von GLOFs, über die Bestimmung derer Frequenz, bis zur regionalen Abschätzung von Spitzenabflüssen–das Grundgerüst, das ein moderner Ansatz zur Gefahrenabschätzung von GLOFs benötigt. Angesichts einer wachsenden Exposition von Bevölkerung, Infrastruktur und Wasserkraftanlagen liefert diese Arbeit einen entscheidenden Beitrag, den Anteil des Klimawandels in der Gefährdung und Risiko durch GLOFs zu quantifizieren. KW - GLOF KW - frequency KW - Landsat KW - satellite images KW - classification KW - magnitude KW - Himalaya KW - Karakoram KW - climate change KW - atmospheric warming KW - glacial lakes KW - glaciers KW - meltwater KW - natural hazard KW - GLOF KW - Gletscherseeasubruch KW - Häufigkeit KW - Landsat KW - Satellitenbilder KW - Klassifikation KW - Magnitude KW - Himalaya KW - Karakorum KW - Klimawandel KW - atmosphärische Erwärmung KW - Gletscherseen KW - Gletscher KW - Schmelzwasser KW - Naturgefahr Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-436071 ER - TY - THES A1 - Romero Mujalli, Daniel T1 - Ecological modeling of adaptive evolutionary responses to rapid climate change T1 - Ökologische Modellierung anpassungsfähiger evolutionärer Reaktionen auf schnellen Klimawandel N2 - A contemporary challenge in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology is to anticipate the fate of populations of organisms in the context of a changing world. Climate change and landscape changes due to anthropic activities have been of major concern in the contemporary history. Organisms facing these threats are expected to respond by local adaptation (i.e., genetic changes or phenotypic plasticity) or by shifting their distributional range (migration). However, there are limits to their responses. For example, isolated populations will have more difficulties in developing adaptive innovations by means of genetic changes than interconnected metapopulations. Similarly, the topography of the environment can limit dispersal opportunities for crawling organisms as compared to those that rely on wind. Thus, populations of species with different life history strategy may differ in their ability to cope with changing environmental conditions. However, depending on the taxon, empirical studies investigating organisms’ responses to environmental change may become too complex, long and expensive; plus, complications arising from dealing with endangered species. In consequence, eco-evolutionary modeling offers an opportunity to overcome these limitations and complement empirical studies, understand the action and limitations of underlying mechanisms, and project into possible future scenarios. In this work I take a modeling approach and investigate the effect and relative importance of evolutionary mechanisms (including phenotypic plasticity) on the ability for local adaptation of populations with different life strategy experiencing climate change scenarios. For this, I performed a review on the state of the art of eco-evolutionary Individual-Based Models (IBMs) and identify gaps for future research. Then, I used the results from the review to develop an eco-evolutionary individual-based modeling tool to study the role of genetic and plastic mechanisms in promoting local adaption of populations of organisms with different life strategies experiencing scenarios of climate change and environmental stochasticity. The environment was simulated through a climate variable (e.g., temperature) defining a phenotypic optimum moving at a given rate of change. The rate of change was changed to simulate different scenarios of climate change (no change, slow, medium, rapid climate change). Several scenarios of stochastic noise color resembling different climatic conditions were explored. Results show that populations of sexual species will rely mainly on standing genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity for local adaptation. Population of species with relatively slow growth rate (e.g., large mammals) – especially those of small size – are the most vulnerable, particularly if their plasticity is limited (i.e., specialist species). In addition, whenever organisms from these populations are capable of adaptive plasticity, they can buffer fitness losses in reddish climatic conditions. Likewise, whenever they can adjust their plastic response (e.g., bed-hedging strategy) they will cope with bluish environmental conditions as well. In contrast, life strategies of high fecundity can rely on non-adaptive plasticity for their local adaptation to novel environmental conditions, unless the rate of change is too rapid. A recommended management measure is to guarantee interconnection of isolated populations into metapopulations, such that the supply of useful genetic variation can be increased, and, at the same time, provide them with movement opportunities to follow their preferred niche, when local adaptation becomes problematic. This is particularly important for bluish and reddish climatic conditions, when the rate of change is slow, or for any climatic condition when the level of stress (rate of change) is relatively high. N2 - Eine aktuelle Herausforderung in der Ökologie und Evolutionsbiologie besteht darin, das Schicksal von Populationen verschiedener Lebewesen im Kontext einer sich verändernden Welt zu antizipieren. Der Klimawandel und die durch anthropologische Aktivitäten verursachten Landschaftsveränderungen sind im Laufe der Geschichte von großer Bedeutung geworden. Von den Organismen, die sich diesen Veränderungen stellen, wird erwartet, dass sie durch lokale Anpassung (d.h. genetische Veränderungen oder phänotypische Plastizität) oder durch Verschiebung ihres Verbreitungsgebietes (Migration) darauf reagieren. Allerdings sind diese Reaktionen begrenzt. So werden beispielsweise isolierte Populationen mehr Schwierigkeiten bei der Entwicklung adaptiver Neuheiten mittels genetischer Variation haben als vernetzte Metapopulationen. Ebenso kann die Topographie der Umgebung die Ausbreitungsmöglichkeiten für zum Beispiel kriechende Organismen im Vergleich zu denen, die auf Wind angewiesen sind, einschränken. So können Populationen von Arten mit unterschiedlichen Lebensstrategien verschiedene Fähigkeiten haben, mit den sich ändernden Umweltbedingungen umzugehen. Empirische Studien, die die Reaktionen von Organismen auf Umweltveränderungen untersuchen, können jedoch, je nach Taxon, zu komplex, langwierig und teuer werden. Ebenso sollten Komplikationen im Umgang mit gefährdeten Arten nicht außer Acht gelassen werden. Die ökoevolutionäre Modellierung bietet jedoch die Möglichkeit, diese Einschränkungen zu überwinden und empirische Studien zu ergänzen, die Wirkung und Grenzen der zugrunde liegenden Mechanismen zu verstehen und mögliche Zukunftsszenarien zu erstellen. In dieser Arbeit untersuche ich mittels einer Modellierungsmethode die Wirkung und relative Bedeutung evolutionärer Mechanismen (einschließlich phänotypischer Plastizität) auf die Fähigkeit zur lokalen Anpassung von Populationen mit unterschiedlichen Lebensstrategien, die Szenarien des Klimawandels durchleben. Dazu habe ich in einem Review den Stand der Technik ökoevolutionärer individuenbasierender Modelle (Individual-Based Models; IBMs) zusammengefasst und Ansätze für eine zukünftige Forschung identifiziert. Die Erkenntnisse des Reviews nutzte ich, um ein ökoevolutionäres, individuelles Modellierungsprogramm zu entwickeln. Dieses analysiert die Rolle genetischer und plastischer Mechanismen zur Förderung der lokalen Anpassung organismischer Populationen mit unterschiedlichen Lebensstrategien, welche Szenarien des Klimawandels und der ökologischen Stochastik erfahren. Die Umweltbedingungen wurden durch eine klimatische Variable (z.B. Temperatur) simuliert, die ein phänotypisches Optimum definiert, das sich mit einer bestimmten Änderungsrate bewegt. Verschiedene Änderungsraten wurden angewandt, um unterschiedliche Szenarien des Klimawandels darzustellen (keine Veränderung, langsamer, mittlerer, schneller Klimawandel). Es wurden mehrere Szenarien stochastischen Farbrauschens untersucht, die verschiedene klimatische Bedingungen widerspiegeln. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Populationen sexueller Arten hauptsächlich auf genetische Variation und phänotypische Plastizität hinsichtlich lokalen Anpassung angewiesen sind. Populationen von Arten mit relativ langsamer Wachstumsrate (z.B. große Säugetiere), und insbesondere die mit kleiner Populationsgröße, sind am anfälligsten, vor allem wenn ihre Plastizität begrenzt ist (d.h. spezialisierte Arten). Wenn Individuen dieser Populationen zu adaptiver Plastizität fähig sind, können sie Fitnessverluste unter „rötlichen“ Klimabedingungen ausgleichen. Zugleich können diese Populationen durch Anpassung der Plastizität auch unter bläulichen Umweltbedingungen zurecht kommen (z.B. Bed-Hedging-Strategie). Im Gegensatz dazu können sich Lebensstrategen mit hoher Reproduktionszahl auf nicht-adaptive Plastizität zur lokalen Anpassung an neue Umweltbedingungen verlassen, es sei denn, die Änderungsrate ist zu schnell. Eine empfohlene Handlungsmaßnahme ist es, die Eingliederung von isolierten Populationen in Metapopulationen zu gewährleisten, so dass die genetische Variation erhöht werden kann. Wenn eine lokale Anpassung problematisch wird, sollte ihnen gleichzeitig Migrationsfreiraum gegeben werden, um ihrer bevorzugten Nische zu folgen. Dies ist besonders wichtig für „bläuliche“ und „rötliche“ Klimabedingungen, bei denen die Änderungsrate langsam ist, oder für jede klimatische Bedingung, wenn die Belastung (Änderungsrate) relativ hoch ist. KW - climate change KW - local adaptation KW - plasticity KW - evolution KW - individual-based model KW - Klimawandel KW - lokale Anpassung KW - Plastizität KW - Evolution KW - Individuen-basierende Modelle Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-430627 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bansard, Jennifer S. A1 - Pattberg, Philipp H. A1 - Widerberg, Oscar T1 - Cities to the rescue? BT - Assessing the performance of transnational municipal networks in global climate governance T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Despite the proliferation and promise of subnational climate initiatives, the institutional architecture of transnational municipal networks (TMNs) is not well understood. With a view to close this research gap, the article empirically assesses the assumption that TMNs are a viable substitute for ambitious international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It addresses the aggregate phenomenon in terms of geographical distribution, central players, mitigation ambition and monitoring provisions. Examining thirteen networks, it finds that membership in TMNs is skewed toward Europe and North America while countries from the Global South are underrepresented; that only a minority of networks commit to quantified emission reductions and that these are not more ambitious than Parties to the UNFCCC; and finally that the monitoring provisions are fairly limited. In sum, the article shows that transnational municipal networks are not (yet) the representative, ambitious and transparent player they are thought to be. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 105 KW - climate change KW - cities and regions KW - urban politics KW - transnational networks Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429806 SN - 1867-5808 IS - 105 SP - 229 EP - 246 ER - TY - THES A1 - Hornick, Thomas T1 - Impact of climate change effects on diversity and function of pelagic heterotrophic bacteria studied in large-scale mesocosm facilities T1 - Studien zum Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die Diversität und Funktion pelagischer heterotropher Bakterien in Mesokosmen N2 - Seit der Industriellen Revolution steigt die Konzentration von Kohlenstoffdioxid (CO2) und anderen Treibhausgasen in der Erdatmosphäre stetig an, wodurch wesentliche Prozesse im Erdsystem beeinflusst werden. Dies wird mit dem Begriff „Klimawandel“ umschrieben. Aquatische Ökosysteme sind sehr stark davon betroffen, da sie als Integral vieler Prozesse in einer Landschaft fungieren. Ziel dieser Doktorarbeit war zu bestimmen, wie verschiedene Auswirkungen des Klimawandels die Gemeinschaftsstruktur und Aktivität von heterotrophen Bakterien in Gewässern verändert, welche eine zentrale Rolle bei biogeochemischen Prozessen einnehmen. Diese Arbeit konzentriert sich auf zwei Aspekte des Klimawandels: (1) Ozeane nehmen einen Großteil des atmosphärischen CO2 auf, welches im Meerwasser das chemische Gleichgewicht des Karbonatsystems verschiebt („Ozeanversauerung“). (2) Durch kontinuierlichen Anstieg der Erdoberflächentemperatur werden Veränderungen im Klimasystem der Erde vorhergesagt, welche u. a. die Häufigkeit und Heftigkeit von episodischen Wetterereignissen (z.B. Stürme) verstärken wird. Insbesondere Sommer-Stürme sind dabei in der Lage die sommerliche Temperaturschichtung der Wassersäule in Seen zu zerstören. Beide Effekte des Klimawandels können weitreichende Auswirkungen auf Wasserchemie/-physik sowie die Verteilung von Organismen haben, was mittels Mesokosmen simuliert wurde. Dabei untersuchten wir den Einfluss der Ozeanversauerung auf heterotrophe bakterielle Prozesse in der Ostsee bei geringen Konzentrationen an gelösten Nährstoffen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Ozeanversauerungseffekte in Kombination mit Nährstofflimitation indirekt das Wachstum von heterotrophen Bakterien durch veränderte trophische Interaktionen beeinflussen können und potentiell zu einer Erhöhung der Autotrophie des Ökosystems führen. In einer weiteren Studie analysierten wir, wie Ozeanversauerung die Umsetzung und Qualität gelösten organischen Materials (DOM) durch heterotrophe Bakterien beeinflussen kann. Die Ergebnisse weisen jedoch darauf hin, dass Änderungen in der DOM-Qualität durch heterotrophe bakterielle Prozesse mit zunehmender Ozeanversauerung unwahrscheinlich sind. Desweiteren wurde der Einfluss eines starken Sommer-Sturmes auf den stratifizierten, oligotroph-mesotrophen Stechlinsee simuliert. Mittels oberflächlicher Durchmischung in Mesokosmen wurde die bestehende Thermokline zerstört und die durchmischte Oberflächenwasserschicht vergrößert. Dies änderte die physikalischen und chemischen Gradienten innerhalb der Wassersäule. Effekte der Einmischung von Tiefenwasser änderten in der Folge die Zusammensetzung der bakteriellen Gemeinschaftsstruktur und stimulierten das Wachstum filamentöser Cyanobakterien, die zu einer Cyanobakterien-Blüte führte und so maßgeblich die metabolischen Prozesse von heterotrophen Bakterien bestimmte. Unsere Studie gibt ein mechanistisches Verständnis, wie Sommer-Stürme bakterielle Gemeinschaften und Prozesse für längere Zeit während der sommerlichen Stratifizierung beeinflussen können. Die in dieser Arbeit präsentierten Ergebnisse zeigen Veränderungen bakterieller Gemeinschaften und Prozesse, welche mit dem einhergehenden Klimawandel erwartet werden können. Diese sollten bei Beurteilung klimarelevanter Fragen hinsichtlich eines zukünftigen Gewässer-managements Berücksichtigung finden. N2 - The unprecedented increase in atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GHG) by anthropogenic activities since the Industrial Revolution impacts on various earth system processes, commonly referred to as `climate change´ (CC). CC faces aquatic ecosystems with extreme abiotic perturbations that potentially alter the interrelations between functional autotrophic and heterotrophic plankton groups. These relations, however, modulate biogeochemical cycling and mediate the functioning of aquatic ecosystems as C sources or sinks to the atmosphere. The aim of this thesis was therefore to investigate how different aspects of CC influence community composition and functioning of pelagic heterotrophic bacteria. These organisms constitute a major component of biogeochemical cycling and largely determine the balance between autotrophic and heterotrophic processes. Due to the vast amount of potential CC impacts, this thesis focuses on the following two aspects: (1) Increased exchange of CO2 across the atmosphere-water interface and reaction of CO2 with seawater leads to profound shifts in seawater carbonate chemistry, commonly termed as `ocean acidification´ (OA), with consequences for organism physiology and the availability of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in seawater. (2) The increase in atmospheric GHG concentration impacts on the efficiency with which the Earth cools to space, affecting global surface temperature and climate. With ongoing CC, shifts in frequency and severity of episodic weather events, such as storms, are expected that in particular might affect lake ecosystems by disrupting thermal summer stratification. Both aspects of CC were studied at the ecosystem-level in large-volume mesocosm experiments by using the Kiel Off-shore Mesocosms for Future Ocean Simulations (KOSMOS) deployed at different coastal marine locations, and the LakeLab facility in Lake Stechlin. We evaluated the impact of OA on heterotrophic bacterial metabolism in a brackish coastal ecosystem during low-nutrient summer months in the Baltic Sea. There are several in situ experiments that already assessed potential OA-induced changes in natural plankton communities at diverse spatial and seasonal conditions. However, most studies were performed at high phytoplankton biomass conditions, partly provoked by nutrient amendments. Our study highlights potential OA effects at low-nutrient conditions that are representative for most parts of the ocean and of particular interest in current OA research. The results suggest that during extended periods at low-nutrient concentrations, increasing pCO2 levels indirectly impact the growth balance of heterotrophic bacteria via trophic bacteria-phytoplankton interactions and shift the ecosystem to a more autotrophic system. Further work investigated how OA affects heterotrophic bacterial dissolved organic matter (DOM) transformation in two mesocsom studies, performed at different nutrient conditions. We observed similar succession patterns for individual compound pools during a phytoplankton bloom and subsequent accumulation of these compounds irrespective of the pCO2 treatment. Our results indicate that OA-induced changes in the dynamics of bacterial DOM transformation and potential impacts on DOM quality are unlikely. In addition, there have been no indications that in dependence of nutrient conditions, different amounts of photosynthetic organic matter are channelled into the more recalcitrant DOM pool. This provides novel insights into the general dynamics of the marine DOM pool. A fourth enclosure experiment in oligo-mesotrophic Lake Stechlin assessed the impact of a severe summer storm on lake bacterial communities during thermal stratification by artificially mixing. Mixing disrupted and lowered the thermocline, increasing the upper mixed layer and substantially changed water physical-chemical variables. Deep water entrainment and associated changes in water physical-chemical variables significantly affected relative bacterial abundances for about one week. Afterwards a pronounced cyanobacterial bloom developed in response to mixing which affected community assembly of heterotrophic bacteria. Colonization and mineralization of senescent phytoplankton cells by heterotrophic bacteria largely determined C-sequestration to the sediment. About six weeks after mixing, bacterial communities and measured activity parameters converged to control conditions. As such, summer storms have the potential to affect bacterial communities for a prolonged period during summer stratification. The results highlight effects on community assembly and heterotrophic bacterial metabolism that are associated to entrainment of deep water into the mixed water layer and assess consequences of an episodic disturbance event for the coupling between bacterial metabolism and autochthonous DOM production in large volume clear-water lakes. Altogether, this doctoral thesis reveales substantial sensitivities of heterotrophic bacterial metabolism and community structure in response to OA and a simulated summer storm event, which should be considered when assessing the impact of climate change on marine and lake ecosystems. KW - climate change KW - ocean acidification KW - Ozeanversauerung KW - Klimawandel KW - Gewässerökologie KW - heterotrophic bacteria Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-428936 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Unterberger, Christian A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Botzen, W. J. Wouter A1 - Schroeer, Katharina A1 - Steininger, Karl W. T1 - Future public sector flood risk and risk sharing arrangements BT - an assessment for Austria T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Climate change, along with socio-economic development, will increase the economic impacts of floods. While the factors that influence flood risk to private property have been extensively studied, the risk that natural disasters pose to public infrastructure and the resulting implications on public sector budgets, have received less attention. We address this gap by developing a two-staged model framework, which first assesses the flood risk to public infrastructure in Austria. Combining exposure and vulnerability information at the building level with inundation maps, we project an increase in riverine flood damage, which progressively burdens public budgets. Second, the risk estimates are integrated into an insurance model, which analyzes three different compensation arrangements in terms of the monetary burden they place on future governments' budgets and the respective volatility of payments. Formalized insurance compensation arrangements offer incentives for risk reduction measures, which lower the burden on public budgets by reducing the vulnerability of buildings that are exposed to flooding. They also significantly reduce the volatility of payments and thereby improve the predictability of flood damage expenditures. These features indicate that more formalized insurance arrangements are an improvement over the purely public compensation arrangement currently in place in Austria. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 634 KW - climate change KW - adaptation KW - flood risk KW - insurance KW - public sector KW - risk reduction Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424629 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 634 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schneider, Birgit A1 - Walsh, Lynda T1 - The politics of zoom BT - Problems with downscaling climate visualizations T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Philosophische Reihe N2 - Following the mandate in the Paris Agreement for signatories to provide “climate services” to their constituents, “downscaled” climate visualizations are proliferating. But the process of downscaling climate visualizations does not neutralize the political problems with their synoptic global sources—namely, their failure to empower communities to take action and their replication of neoliberal paradigms of globalization. In this study we examine these problems as they apply to interactive climate‐visualization platforms, which allow their users to localize global climate information to support local political action. By scrutinizing the political implications of the “zoom” tool from the perspective of media studies and rhetoric, we add to perspectives of cultural cartography on the issue of scaling from our fields. Namely, we break down the cinematic trope of “zooming” to reveal how it imports the political problems of synopticism to the level of individual communities. As a potential antidote to the politics of zoom, we recommend a downscaling strategy of connectivity, which associates rather than reduces situated views of climate to global ones. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Philosophische Reihe - 159 KW - climate change KW - climate services KW - climate visualization KW - connectivity KW - downscaling KW - spherical KW - synopticism KW - zoom Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-424819 SN - 1866-8380 IS - 159 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schneider, Birgit A1 - Walsh, Lynda T1 - The politics of zoom BT - Problems with downscaling climate visualizations JF - Geo: Geography and Environment N2 - Following the mandate in the Paris Agreement for signatories to provide “climate services” to their constituents, “downscaled” climate visualizations are proliferating. But the process of downscaling climate visualizations does not neutralize the political problems with their synoptic global sources—namely, their failure to empower communities to take action and their replication of neoliberal paradigms of globalization. In this study we examine these problems as they apply to interactive climate‐visualization platforms, which allow their users to localize global climate information to support local political action. By scrutinizing the political implications of the “zoom” tool from the perspective of media studies and rhetoric, we add to perspectives of cultural cartography on the issue of scaling from our fields. Namely, we break down the cinematic trope of “zooming” to reveal how it imports the political problems of synopticism to the level of individual communities. As a potential antidote to the politics of zoom, we recommend a downscaling strategy of connectivity, which associates rather than reduces situated views of climate to global ones. KW - climate change KW - climate services KW - climate visualization KW - connectivity KW - downscaling KW - spherical KW - synopticism KW - zoom Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/geo2.70 SN - 2054-4049 VL - 6 IS - 1 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - THES A1 - Willner, Sven N. T1 - Global economic response to flood damages under climate change T1 - Global-ökonomische Reaktion auf klimabedingte Überschwemmungsschäden N2 - Climate change affects societies across the globe in various ways. In addition to gradual changes in temperature and other climatic variables, global warming is likely to increase intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Beyond biophysical impacts, these also directly affect societal and economic activity. Additionally, indirect effects can occur; spatially, economic losses can spread along global supply-chains; temporally, climate impacts can change the economic development trajectory of countries. This thesis first examines how climate change alters river flood risk and its local socio-economic implications. Then, it studies the global economic response to river floods in particular, and to climate change in general. Changes in high-end river flood risk are calculated for the next three decades on a global scale with high spatial resolution. In order to account for uncertainties, this assessment makes use of an ensemble of climate and hydrological models as well as a river routing model, that is found to perform well regarding peak river discharge. The results show an increase in high-end flood risk in many parts of the world, which require profound adaptation efforts. This pressure to adapt is measured as the enhancement in protection level necessary to stay at historical high-end risk. In developing countries as well as in industrialized regions, a high pressure to adapt is observed - the former to increase low protection levels, the latter to maintain the low risk levels perceived in the past. Further in this thesis, the global agent-based dynamic supply-chain model acclimate is developed. It models the cascading of indirect losses in the global supply network. As an anomaly model its agents - firms and consumers - maximize their profit locally to respond optimally to local perturbations. Incorporating quantities as well as prices on a daily basis, it is suitable to dynamically resolve the impacts of unanticipated climate extremes. The model is further complemented by a static measure, which captures the inter-dependencies between sectors across regions that are only connected indirectly. These higher-order dependencies are shown to be important for a comprehensive assessment of loss-propagation and overall costs of local disasters. In order to study the economic response to river floods, the acclimate model is driven by flood simulations. Within the next two decades, the increase in direct losses can only partially be compensated by market adjustments, and total losses are projected to increase by 17% without further adaptation efforts. The US and the EU are both shown to receive indirect losses from China, which is strongly affected directly. However, recent trends in the trade relations leave the EU in a better position to compensate for these losses. Finally, this thesis takes a broader perspective when determining the investment response to the climate change damages employing the integrated assessment model DICE. On an optimal economic development path, the increase in damages is anticipated as emissions and consequently temperatures increase. This leads to a significant devaluation of investment returns and the income losses from climate damages almost double. Overall, the results highlight the need to adapt to extreme weather events - local physical adaptation measures have to be combined with regional and global policy measures to prepare the global supply-chain network to climate change. N2 - Der Klimawandel betrifft Gesellschaften weltweit auf verschiedenste Weise. Neben graduellen Veränderungen der Temperatur und anderer klimatischer Variablen werden wahrscheinlich auch die Intensität und die Häufigkeit von Extremwetterereignissen zunehmen. Diese beeinflussen neben ihren bio-physikalischen Auswirkungen auch unmittelbar die gesellschaftliche und wirtschaftliche Aktivität. Zusätzlich können indirekte Effekte auftreten: Die räumliche Dimension umfasst die Ausbreitung wirtschaftlicher Schäden entlang globaler Versorgungsketten, zeitlich betrachtet können Klimaauswirkungen die wirtschaftlichen Entwicklungspfade von Ländern prägen. Die vorliegende Dissertation widmet sich zunächst der Frage, wie sich (Fluss-)Hochwasserrisiken und ihre gesellschaftlichen sowie wirtschaftlichen Implikationen durch den Klimawandel verändern. Weiterhin wird die Reaktionsdynamik des globalen ökonomischen Systems auf Klimawandel im Allgemeinen und auf Überschwemmungsereignisse an Flüssen im Speziellen untersucht. So werden die Risiken von schweren Fluss-Überschwemmungen für die nächsten drei Jahrzehnte global mit hoher räumlicher Auflösung berechnet. Zur Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheiten wird dabei auf ein Ensemble von Klima- und hydrologischen Modellen zurückgegriffen. Dabei werden die hydrologischen Modelle mit einem Flussverteilungsmodel, das die verbesserte Abbildung von Extrempegelständen an Flüssen ermöglicht, kombiniert. Die Berechnungen zeigen einen Anstieg des Überschwemmungsrisikos für weite Teile der Erde. Der damit einhergehende Anpassungsdruck wird in dieser Studie als Anpassung des Schutzniveaus berechnet, die notwendig ist, um das bestehende Überschwemmungsrisiko beizubehalten. Ein hoher Anpassungsdruck besteht dabei sowohl in Entwicklungs- als auch in Industriestaaten. Während in Ersteren oft erst adäquate Hochwasserschutzmaßnahmen ergriffen werden müssen, müssen Letztere oft ihr aktuelles Schutzniveau ausbauen. Weiterhin wird in der vorliegenden Arbeit das globale, agenten-basierte und dynamische Modell acclimate entwickelt, welches Kaskaden von indirekten ökonomischen Schäden im globalen Versorgungsnetzwerk modelliert. Acclimate ist als Anomalienmodell angelegt, dessen Agenten - Firmen und Konsumenten - durch Profitmaximierung versuchen, optimal auf lokale Störungen zu reagieren. Da das Modell sowohl Warenströme als auch die zugehörigen Preise nach Tagen aufgelöst abbildet, ist es besonders gut geeignet, die kurzfristigen ökonomischen Auswirkungen unvorhergesehener Klimaextreme zu beschreiben. Das dynamische Modell wird ergänzt durch ein neues statisches Maß, das die Abhängigkeiten zwischen regionalen Sektoren beschreibt. Dabei werden nicht nur die direkten Handelsverbindungen betrachtet, sondern auch solche höherer Ordnung. Es zeigt sich, dass diese für eine umfassende Abschätzung der Schadenskaskaden und damit der Gesamtkosten lokaler Extremereignisse nicht vernachlässigt werden dürfen. Zur Untersuchung der ökonomischen Reaktionsdynamik auf Hochwasserereignisse wird das acclimate-Modell für Simulationen von Flussüberschwemmungen angewandt. Bis zum Jahr 2035 wird dabei ein Anstieg des direkten Schadens prognostiziert. Dieser kann nur teilweise durch Marktmechanismen ausgeglichen werden, so dass die Gesamtschäden weltweit um 17% zunehmen - sofern keine zusätzlichen Anpassungsmaßnahmen getroffen werden. Für die USA und die EU zeigt sich, dass diese durch ihre Handelsverbindungen insbesondere zu China indirekt betroffen sind, da China starke direkte Flussüberflutungen zu erwarten hat. Die Entwicklungen der globalen Handelsbeziehungen in den letzten Jahren versetzen die EU jedoch in die Lage einen zunehmenden Teil dieser Verluste auszugleichen. In einem weiter gefassten Ansatz wird schlussendlich die Änderung des Investitionsverhaltens aufgrund der Schäden durch Klimawandel unter Zuhilfenahme des ökonomischen Wachstumsmodells DICE untersucht. Es lässt sich festhalten, dass auf einem optimalen ökonomischen Entwicklungspfad die Zunahme der Schäden bereits antizipiert wird, wenn Emissionen und dem darauf folgend die Temperatur ansteigen. Dies führt zu einer signifikanten Abwertung von Kapitalerträgen, was die direkten Verluste durch Klimaschäden nahezu verdoppelt. Insgesamt unterstreichen die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit die Notwendigkeit der Anpassung an klimabedingte Extremwetterereignisse. Dazu müssen lokale, physikalische Anpassungsmaßnahmen durch regionale und globale Politikinstrumente ergänzt werden, um das globale Versorgungsnetzwerk adäquat auf den Klimawandel vorzubereiten. KW - climate change KW - river floods KW - higher-order effects KW - economic network KW - climate impacts KW - Klimawandel KW - Überschwemmungen KW - Wirtschaftsnetzwerk Y1 - 2018 ER -