TY - JOUR A1 - Tielbörger, Katja A1 - Kadmon, Ronen A1 - Müller, Monika A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Populationsdynamische Funktionen von Ausbreitung und Dormanz Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Weber, Gisela A1 - Paruelo, J. A1 - Dean, W. R. J. A1 - Milton, Sue J. A1 - VanRooyen, N. T1 - Beweidung als Degradationsfaktor in ariden und semiariden Weidesystemen Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thulke, Hans-Hermann A1 - Tischendorf, L. A1 - Staubach, C. A1 - Selhorst, T. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Müller, T. A1 - Schlüter, H. A1 - Wissel, Christian T1 - The spatio-temporal dynamics of a post-vaccination recovery of rabies in foxes and emergency vaccination planning Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Weber, Gisela A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Ecological buffering mechanisms in savannas : a unifying theory of long-term tree-grass coexistence Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wiegand, K. A1 - Ward, D. A1 - Thulke, Hans-Hermann A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - From snap-shot information to long-term population dynamics of Acacias by a simulation model Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wiegand, K. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ward, D. T1 - Do spatial effects play a role in the spatial distribution of desert dwelling Acacias? Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wiegand, T. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Long-term dynamics in arid and semi-arid ecosystems : synthesis of a workshop Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weber, Gisela A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Long-term impacts of livestock herbivory on herbaceous and woody vegetation in semiarid savannas Y1 - 2000 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Stephan, T. A1 - Wiegand, T. A1 - Weber, G. E. T1 - Arid rangeland management supported by dynamic spatially-explicit simulation models Y1 - 2001 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. T1 - Spatially-explicit vegetation models : what have we learned ? Y1 - 2001 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wichmann, Matthias A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Dean, Richard A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Wissel, Christian T1 - Weather does matter : simulating population dynamics of tawny eagle (Aquila rapax) under various rainfall scenarios Y1 - 2002 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wichmann, Matthias A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Dean, Richard A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Wissel, Christian T1 - Does climate change in arid savanna affect the population persistence of raptors? Y1 - 2002 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian T1 - Wechselbeziehungen zwischen Artendiversität und struktureller Diversität : modellgestützte Untersuchungen am Beispiel einer semiariden Savanne Y1 - 2002 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Hansen, Frank A1 - Tackmann, K. A1 - Thulke, Hans-Hermann T1 - Köderauslageintervalle und Dauer der Bekämpfung des Kleinen Fuchsbandwurms : eine Modellierstudie Y1 - 2003 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wiegand, T. A1 - Hanski, I. A1 - Grimm, Volker T1 - Using pattern-oriented modeling for revealing hidden information : a key for reconciling ecological theory and application Y1 - 2003 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wichmann, Matthias A1 - Dean, W. R. J. A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Wissel, Christian T1 - Implications of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid savannah Y1 - 2003 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Wichmann, Matthias A1 - Johst, J. A1 - Moloney, Kirk A. A1 - Wissel, Christian T1 - Extinction risk in periodically fluctuating environments Y1 - 2003 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Hansen, Frank A1 - Thulke, Hans-Hermann T1 - Simulationsmodelle zur Planung von Strategien in der Bekämpfung von Wildtiererkrankungen Y1 - 2003 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Hansen, Frank A1 - Tackmann, K. A1 - Wissel, Christian A1 - Thulke, Hans-Hermann T1 - Controlling Echinococcus multilocularis - ecological implications of field trials Y1 - 2003 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Wiegand, K. A1 - Jeltsch, Florian A1 - Ward, D. T1 - Minimum recruitment frequency in plants with episodic recruitment N2 - There is concern about the lack of recruitment of Acacia trees in the Negev desert of Israel. We have developed three models to estimate the frequency of recruitment necessary for long-term population survival (i.e. positive average population growth for 1,000 years and <10% probability of extinction). Two models assume purely episodic recruitment based on the general notion that recruitment in and environments is highly episodic. They differ in that the deterministic model investigates average dynamics while the stochastic model does not. Studies indicating that recruitment episodes in and environments have been overemphasized motivated the development of the third model. This semi-stochastic model simulates a mixture of continuous and episodic recruitment. Model analysis was done analytically for the deterministic model and via running model simulations for the stochastic and semi-stochastic models. The deterministic and stochastic models predict that, on average, 2.2 and 3.7 recruitment events per century, respectively, are necessary to sustain the population. According to the semi-stochastic model, 1.6 large recruitment events per century and an annual probability of 50% that a small recruitment event occurs are needed. A consequence of purely episodic recruitment is that all recruitment episodes produce extremely large numbers of recruits (i.e. at odds with field observations), an evaluation that holds even when considering that rare events must be large. Thus, the semi- stochastic model appears to be the most realistic model. Comparing the prediction of the semi-stochastic model to field observations in the Negev desert shows that the absence of observations of extremely large recruitment events is no reason for concern. However, the almost complete absence of small recruitment events is a serious reason for concern. The lack of recruitment may be due to decreased densities of large mammalian herbivores and might be further exacerbated by possible changes in climate, both in terms of average precipitation and the temporal distribution of rain Y1 - 2004 ER -