TY - JOUR A1 - Gosens, Jorrit A1 - Gilmanova, Alina A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Windows of opportunity for catching up in formative clean-tech sectors and the rise of China in concentrated solar power JF - Environmental innovation and societal transitions N2 - We analyse the potential for industry entry and catching up by latecomer countries or firms in formative sectors, by deriving a framework that builds on the concept of windows of opportunity for catching up. This framework highlights differences in technological, market, and institutional characteristics between formative and mature sectors, and elaborates how this may affect opportunities for catching up. We apply this framework to the global Concentrated Solar Power sector, in which China has rapidly narrowed the gap to the global forefront in terms of technological capabilities and market competitiveness. We find that the formative nature of the sector resulted in turbulent development of the technological, market, and institutional dimensions, making it more difficult for early leaders to retain leadership, and therefore easier for latecomer firms or countries to catch up. This signals an increased role in early-stage technology development in the next phase of the energy transition. KW - catching up KW - windows of opportunity KW - formative sectors KW - concentrating solar power KW - China Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eist.2021.03.005 SN - 2210-4224 VL - 39 SP - 86 EP - 106 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Süsser, Diana A1 - Martin, Nick A1 - Stavrakas, Vassilis A1 - Gaschnig, Hannes A1 - Talens-Peiró, Laura A1 - Flamos, Alexandros A1 - Madrid-López, Cristina A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Why energy models should integrate social and environmental factors BT - assessing user needs, omission impacts, and real-word accuracy in the European Union JF - Energy research & social science N2 - Energy models are used to inform and support decisions within the transition to climate neutrality. In recent years, such models have been criticised for being overly techno-centred and ignoring environmental and social factors of the energy transition. Here, we explore and illustrate the impact of ignoring such factors by comparing model results to model user needs and real-world observations. We firstly identify concrete user needs for better representation of environmental and social factors in energy modelling via interviews, a survey and a workshop. Secondly, we explore and illustrate the effects of omitting non-techno-economic factors in modelling by contrasting policy-targeted scenarios with reality in four EU case study examples. We show that by neglecting environmental and social factors, models risk generating overly optimistic and potentially misleading results, for example by suggesting transition speeds far exceeding any speeds observed, or pathways facing hard-to-overcome resource constraints. As such, modelled energy transition pathways that ignore such factors may be neither desirable nor feasible from an environmental and social perspective, and scenarios may be irrelevant in practice. Finally, we discuss a sample of recent energy modelling innovations and call for continued and increased efforts for improved approaches that better represent environmental and social factors in energy modelling and increase the relevance of energy models for informing policymaking. KW - energy modelling KW - energy planning KW - energy policy KW - ecological crisis KW - social acceptance KW - environmental impacts Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102775 SN - 2214-6296 VL - 92 SP - 102775 EP - 102775 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Melliger, Marc André A1 - Ollier, Lana A1 - Schmidt, Tobias S. A1 - Steffen, Bjarne T1 - Understanding and accounting for the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on global learning rates JF - Nature energy N2 - Learning rates are a central concept in energy system models and integrated assessment models, as they allow researchers to project the future costs of new technologies and to optimize energy system costs. Here we argue that exchange rate fluctuations are an important, but thus far overlooked, determinant of the learning-rate variance observed in the literature. We explore how empirically observed global learning rates depend on where technologies are installed and which currency is used to calculate the learning rate. Using global data of large-scale photovoltaic (>= 5 MW) plants, we show that the currency choice can result in learning-rate differences of up to 16 percentage points. We then introduce an adjustment factor to correct for the effect of exchange rate and market focus fluctuations and discuss the implications of our findings for innovation scholars, energy modellers and decision makers.
Learning rates are a measure of reduction in costs of energy from technologies such as solar photovoltaics. These are often estimated internationally with all monetary figures converted to a single currency, often US dollars. Lilliestam et al. show that such conversions can significantly affect the learning rate estimates. Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-019-0531-y SN - 2058-7546 VL - 5 IS - 1 SP - 71 EP - 78 PB - Nature Publishing Group CY - Berlin ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Tröndle, Tim A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Marelli, Stefano A1 - Pfenninger, Stefan T1 - Trade-offs between geographic scale, cost, and infrastructure requirements for fully renewable electricity in Europe JF - Joule N2 - The European potential for renewable electricity is sufficient to enable fully renewable supply on different scales, from self-sufficient, subnational regions to an interconnected continent. We not only show that a continental-scale system is the cheapest, but also that systems on the national scale and below are possible at cost penalties of 20% or less. Transmission is key to low cost, but it is not necessary to vastly expand the transmission system. When electricity is transmitted only to balance fluctuations, the transmission grid size is comparable to today's, albeit with expanded cross-border capacities. The largest differences across scales concern land use and thus social acceptance: in the continental system, generation capacity is concentrated on the European periphery, where the best resources are. Regional systems, in contrast, have more dispersed generation. The key trade-off is therefore not between geographic scale and cost, but between scale and the spatial distribution of required generation and transmission infrastructure. KW - energy decarbonization KW - self-sufficiency KW - cooperation KW - trade KW - transmission KW - regional equity KW - land use KW - acceptance KW - flexibility Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joule.2020.07.018 SN - 2542-4351 VL - 4 IS - 9 SP - 1929 EP - 1948 PB - Cell Press CY - Cambridge , Mass. ER - TY - GEN A1 - Tröndle, Tim A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Marelli, Stefano A1 - Pfenninger, Stefan T1 - Trade-offs between geographic scale, cost, and infrastructure requirements for fully renewable electricity in Europe T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The European potential for renewable electricity is sufficient to enable fully renewable supply on different scales, from self-sufficient, subnational regions to an interconnected continent. We not only show that a continental-scale system is the cheapest, but also that systems on the national scale and below are possible at cost penalties of 20% or less. Transmission is key to low cost, but it is not necessary to vastly expand the transmission system. When electricity is transmitted only to balance fluctuations, the transmission grid size is comparable to today's, albeit with expanded cross-border capacities. The largest differences across scales concern land use and thus social acceptance: in the continental system, generation capacity is concentrated on the European periphery, where the best resources are. Regional systems, in contrast, have more dispersed generation. The key trade-off is therefore not between geographic scale and cost, but between scale and the spatial distribution of required generation and transmission infrastructure. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 146 KW - levelized cost KW - energy-system KW - power-system KW - storage KW - wind KW - reanalysis KW - decarbonization KW - transmission KW - integration KW - deployment Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-539611 IS - 9 SP - 1929 EP - 1948 ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Schöniger, Franziska A1 - Resch, Gustav A1 - Kleinschmitt, Christoph A1 - Franke, Katja A1 - Thonig, Richard A1 - Lilliestam, Johan ED - Uyar, Tanay Sıdkı ED - Javani, Nader T1 - The need for dispatchable RES BT - a closer look at the future role of CSP in Europe T2 - Renewable energy based solutions N2 - Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) offers flexible and decarbonised power generation and is one of the few switchable renewable technologies that can generate renewable power on demand. Today (2018), CSP only contributes 5 TWh to European electricity generation but has the potential to become an important generation asset for decarbonising the electricity sector within Europe as well as globally. This chapter examines how factors and key political decisions lead to different futures and the associated CSP use in Europe in the years up to 2050. In a second step, we characterise the scenarios with the associated system costs and the costs of the support policy. We show that the role of CSP in Europe depends crucially on political decisions and the success or failure of policies outside of renewable energies. In particular, the introduction of CSP depends on the general ambitions for decarbonisation, the level of cross-border trade in electricity from renewable sources and is made possible by the existence of a strong grid connection between the southern and northern European Member States and by future growth in electricity demand. The presence of other baseload technologies, particularly nuclear energy in France, diminishes the role and need for CSP. Assuming a favourable technological development, we find a strong role for CSP in Europe in all modelled scenarios: Contribution of 100 TWh to 300 TWh of electricity to a future European electricity system. The current European CSP fleet would have to be increased by a factor of 20 to 60 over the next 30 years. To achieve this, stable financial support for CSP would be required. Depending on framework conditions and assumptions, the amount of support ranges at the EU level from € 0.4 to 2 billion per year, which represents only a small proportion of the total support requirement for the energy system transformation. Cooperation between the Member States could further help reduce these costs. Y1 - 2022 SN - 978-3-031-05124-1 SN - 978-3-031-05125-8 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-05125-8_8 VL - 87 SP - 219 EP - 239 PB - Springer International Publishing CY - Cham ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Ollier, Lana A1 - Labordena Mir, Mercè A1 - Pfenninger, Stefan A1 - Thonig, Richard T1 - The near- to mid-term outlook for concentrating solar power BT - mostly cloudy, chance of sun JF - Energy sources. B, Economics, planning and policy N2 - The history of concentrating solar power (CSP) is characterized by a boom-bust pattern caused by policy support changes. Following the 2014-2016 bust phase, the combination of Chinese support and several low-cost projects triggered a new boom phase. We investigate the near- to mid-term cost, industry, market and policy outlook for the global CSP sector and show that CSP costs have decreased strongly and approach cost-competitiveness with new conventional generation. Industry has been strengthened through the entry of numerous new companies. However, the project pipeline is thin: no project broke ground in 2019 and only four projects are under construction in 2020. The only remaining large support scheme, in China, has been canceled. Without additional support soon creating a new market, the value chain may collapse and recent cost and technological advances may be undone. If policy support is renewed, however, the global CSP sector is prepared for a bright future. KW - concentrating solar power KW - technological learning KW - value chain analysis KW - energy policy KW - industry development Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2020.1773580 SN - 1556-7249 SN - 1556-7257 VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 23 EP - 41 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London [u.a.] ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ollier, Lana A1 - Metz, Florence A1 - Nuñez-Jimenez, Alejandro A1 - Späth, Leonhard A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - The European 2030 climate and energy package BT - do domestic strategy adaptations precede EU policy change? JF - Policy sciences N2 - The European Union’s 2030 climate and energy package introduced fundamental changes compared to its 2020 predecessor. These changes included a stronger focus on the internal market and an increased emphasis on technology-neutral decarbonization while simultaneously de-emphasizing the renewables target. This article investigates whether changes in domestic policy strategies of leading member states in European climate policy preceded the observed changes in EU policy. Disaggregating strategic change into changes in different elements (goals, objectives, instrumental logic), allows us to go beyond analyzing the relative prioritization of different goals, and to analyze how policy requirements for reaching those goals were dynamically redefined over time. To this end, we introduce a new method, which based on insights from social network analysis, enables us to systematically trace those strategic chances. We find that shifts in national strategies of the investigated member states preceded the shift in EU policy. In particular, countries reframed their understanding of supply security, and pushed for the internal electricity market also as a security measure to balance fluctuating renewables. Hence, the increasing focus on markets and market integration in the European 2030 package echoed the increasingly central role of the internal market for electricity supply security in national strategies. These findings also highlight that countries dynamically redefined their goals relative to the different phases of the energy transition. KW - climate and energy policy KW - policy strategy KW - European Union KW - decarbonization KW - renewable energy Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-022-09447-5 SN - 0032-2687 SN - 1573-0891 VL - 55 IS - 1 SP - 161 EP - 184 PB - Springer Science+Business Media LLC CY - New York ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Patt, Anthony A1 - Bersalli, German T1 - The effect of carbon pricing on technological change for full energy decarbonization BT - a review of empirical ex-post evidence JF - Wiley interdisciplinary reviews : Climate change N2 - In order to achieve the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement, the world must reach net-zero carbon emissions around mid-century, which calls for an entirely new energy system. Carbon pricing, in the shape of taxes or emissions trading schemes, is often seen as the main, or only, necessary climate policy instrument, based on theoretical expectations that this would promote innovation and diffusion of the new technologies necessary for full decarbonization. Here, we review the empirical knowledge available in academic ex-post analyses of the effectiveness of existing, comparatively high-price carbon pricing schemes in the European Union, New Zealand, British Columbia, and the Nordic countries. Some articles find short-term operational effects, especially fuel switching in existing assets, but no article finds mentionable effects on technological change. Critically, all articles examining the effects on zero-carbon investment found that existing carbon pricing scheme have had no effect at all. We conclude that the effectiveness of carbon pricing in stimulating innovation and zero-carbon investment remains a theoretical argument. So far, there is no empirical evidence of its effectiveness in promoting the technological change necessary for full decarbonization. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics of Mitigation KW - carbon pricing KW - climate policy KW - decarbonization KW - technological change Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.681 SN - 1757-7780 SN - 1757-7799 VL - 12 IS - 1 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Du, Fengli A1 - Gilmanova, Alina A1 - Mehos, Mark A1 - Wang, Zhifeng A1 - Thonig, Richard T1 - Scaling up CSP BT - how long will it take? T2 - AIP conference proceedings N2 - Concentrating solar power (CSP) is one of the few scalable technologies capable of delivering dispatchable renewable power. Therefore, many expect it to shoulder a significant share of system balancing in a renewable electricity future powered by cheap, intermittent PV and wind power: the IEA, for example, projects 73 GW CSP by 2030 and several hundred GW by 2050 in its Net-Zero by 2050 pathway. In this paper, we assess how fast CSP can be expected to scale up and how long time it would take to get new, high-efficiency CSP technologies to market, based on observed trends and historical patterns. We find that to meaningfully contribute to net-zero pathways the CSP sector needs to reach and exceed the maximum historical annual growth rate of 30%/year last seen between 2010-2014 and maintain it for at least two decades. Any CSP deployment in the 2020s will rely mostly on mature existing technologies, namely parabolic trough and molten-salt towers, but likely with adapted business models such as hybrid CSP-PV stations, combining the advantages of higher-cost dispatchable and low-cost intermittent power. New third-generation CSP designs are unlikely to play a role in markets during the 2020s, as they are still at or before the pilot stage and, judging from past pilot-to-market cycles for CSP, they will likely not be ready for market deployment before 2030. CSP can contribute to low-cost zero-emission energy systems by 2050, but to make that happen, at the scale foreseen in current energy models, ambitious technology-specific policy support is necessary, as soon as possible and in several countries. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0148709 SN - 1551-7616 SN - 0094-243X VL - 2815 IS - 1 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Melville ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Patt, Anthony A1 - Bersalli, Germán T1 - On the quality of emission reductions BT - observed effects of carbon pricing on investments, innovation, and operational shifts. A response to van den Bergh and Savin (2021) JF - Environmental and Resource Economics N2 - To meet the Paris Agreement targets, carbon emissions from the energy system must be eliminated by mid-century, implying vast investment and systemic change challenges ahead. In an article in WIREs Climate Change, we reviewed the empirical evidence for effects of carbon pricing systems on technological change towards full decarbonisation, finding weak or no effects. In response, van den Bergh and Savin (2021) criticised our review in an article in this journal, claiming that it is "unfair", incomplete and flawed in various ways. Here, we respond to this critique by elaborating on the conceptual roots of our argumentation based on the importance of short-term emission reductions and longer-term technological change, and by expanding the review. This verifies our original findings: existing carbon pricing schemes have sometimes reduced emissions, mainly through switching to lower-carbon fossil fuels and efficiency increases, and have triggered weak innovation increases. There is no evidence that carbon pricing systems have triggered zero-carbon investments, and scarce but consistent evidence that they have not. Our findings highlight the importance of adapting and improving climate policy assessment metrics beyond short-term emissions by also assessing the quality of emission reductions and the progress of underlying technological change. KW - Carbon pricing KW - Climate policy KW - Decarbonisation KW - Technological change KW - Energy transition Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-022-00708-8 SN - 0924-6460 SN - 1573-1502 VL - 83 IS - 3 SP - 733 EP - 758 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bersalli, Germán A1 - Tröndle, Tim A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Most industrialised countries have peaked carbon dioxide emissions during economic crises through strengthened structural change JF - Communications earth & environment N2 - As the climate targets tighten and countries are impacted by several crises, understanding how and under which conditions carbon dioxide emissions peak and start declining is gaining importance. We assess the timing of emissions peaks in all major emitters (1965–2019) and the extent to which past economic crises have impacted structural drivers of emissions contributing to emission peaks. We show that in 26 of 28 countries that have peaked emissions, the peak occurred just before or during a recession through the combined effect of lower economic growth (1.5 median percentage points per year) and decreasing energy and/or carbon intensity (0.7) during and after the crisis. In peak-and-decline countries, crises have typically magnified pre-existing improvements in structural change. In non-peaking countries, economic growth was less affected, and structural change effects were weaker or increased emissions. Crises do not automatically trigger peaks but may strengthen ongoing decarbonisation trends through several mechanisms. KW - climate-change mitigation KW - economics KW - environmental economics KW - environmental studies Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00687-8 SN - 2662-4435 VL - 4 IS - 1 SP - 44 EP - 44 PB - Springer Nature CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schöniger, Franziska A1 - Thonig, Richard A1 - Resch, Gustav A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Making the sun shine at night BT - comparing the cost of dispatchable concentrating solar power and photovoltaics with storage JF - Energy sources. B, Economics, planning and policy N2 - Sustainable electricity systems need renewable and dispatchable energy sources. Solar energy is an abundant source of renewable energy globally which is, though, by nature only available during the day, and especially in clear weather conditions. We compare three technology configurations able to provide dispatchable solar power at times without sunshine: Photovoltaics (PV) combined with battery (BESS) or thermal energy storage (TES) and concentrating solar power (CSP) with TES. Modeling different periods without sunshine, we find that PV+BESS is competitive for shorter storage durations while CSP+TES gains economic advantages for longer storage periods (also over PV+TES). The corresponding tipping points lie at 2-3 hours (current cost), and 4-10 hours if expectations on future cost developments are taken into consideration. PV+TES becomes only more competitive than CSP+TES with immense additional cost reductions of PV. Hence, there remain distinct niches for two technologies: PV+BESS for short storage durations and CSP+TES for longer ones. KW - Concentrating solar power (CSP) KW - dispatchable renewable electricity KW - thermal energy storage KW - photovoltaics KW - utility-scale batteries KW - flexibility KW - energy system modeling Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2020.1843565 SN - 1556-7249 SN - 1556-7257 VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 55 EP - 74 PB - Taylor & Francis Group CY - Philadelphia ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Apergi, Maria A1 - Zimmermann, Eva A1 - Weko, Silvia A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Is renewable energy technology trade more or less conflictive than other trade? JF - Energy policy N2 - Renewable energy changes the geopolitics of energy: whereas access to fossil fuel resources were key in the past, control over technology and industry will be key in the future. Consequently, different scholars have predicted that a growing focus on renewables will increase or decrease conflict in the energy sector, with no consensus on which is most likely. Here, we investigate the degree of conflict in renewable energy technology (RET) trade by analyzing data on 7041 trade conflicts 1995–2020, guided by two sets of theory-driven hypotheses. We show that RET trade is associated with more, longer, and more intense trade conflicts than other trade conflicts for 1995–2016. This supports the neorealist, geo-economic view of countries being willing to risk conflict to increase their share of a market rather than avoiding conflicts to increase the overall market size. It also contradicts the view that renewables will reduce conflict: at least in the past and regarding trade, it has increased rather than decreased conflict. For 2017–2020, this trend is reversed and RET trade became significantly less conflictive than other trade. Our findings imply that improved conflict-resolution institutions for RET are needed. We also suggest establishing specific institutions to govern trade in immature technologies. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113538 SN - 0301-4215 SN - 1873-6777 VL - 177 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - McKenna, Russell A1 - Pfenninger, Stefan A1 - Heinrichs, Heidi A1 - Schmidt, Johannes A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Bauer, Christian A1 - Gruber, Katharina A1 - Hahmann, Andrea N. A1 - Jansen, Malte A1 - Klingler, Michael A1 - Landwehr, Natascha A1 - Larsén, Xiaoli Guo A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Pickering, Bryn A1 - Robinius, Martin A1 - Tröndle, Tim A1 - Turkovska, Olga A1 - Wehrle, Sebastian A1 - Weinand, Jann Michael A1 - Wohland, Jan T1 - High-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy assessments BT - a review of potential definitions, methodologies and future research needs JF - Renewable energy N2 - The rapid uptake of renewable energy technologies in recent decades has increased the demand of energy researchers, policymakers and energy planners for reliable data on the spatial distribution of their costs and potentials. For onshore wind energy this has resulted in an active research field devoted to analysing these resources for regions, countries or globally. A particular thread of this research attempts to go beyond purely technical or spatial restrictions and determine the realistic, feasible or actual potential for wind energy. Motivated by these developments, this paper reviews methods and assumptions for analysing geographical, technical, economic and, finally, feasible onshore wind potentials. We address each of these potentials in turn, including aspects related to land eligibility criteria, energy meteorology, and technical developments of wind turbine characteristics such as power density, specific rotor power and spacing aspects. Economic aspects of potential assessments are central to future deployment and are discussed on a turbine and system level covering levelized costs depending on locations, and the system integration costs which are often overlooked in such analyses. Non-technical approaches include scenicness assessments of the landscape, constraints due to regulation or public opposition, expert and stakeholder workshops, willingness to pay/accept elicitations and socioeconomic cost-benefit studies. For each of these different potential estimations, the state of the art is critically discussed, with an attempt to derive best practice recommendations and highlight avenues for future research. KW - onshore wind KW - resource assessments KW - social acceptance KW - planning constraints KW - research priorities Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.10.027 SN - 0960-1481 VL - 182 SP - 659 EP - 684 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - CHAP A1 - Quitzow, Rainer A1 - Bersalli, Germán A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Prontera, Andrea ED - Rayner, Tim ED - Szulecki, Kacper ED - Jordan, Andrew J. ED - Oberthür, Sebastian T1 - Green recovery BT - catalyst for an enhanced EU role in climate and energy policy? T2 - Handbook on European Union Climate Change Policy and Politics N2 - This chapter reviews how the European Union has fared in enabling a green recovery in the aftermath of the Covid-19 crisis, drawing comparisons to developments after the financial crisis. The chapter focuses on the European Commission and its evolving role in promoting decarbonisation efforts in its Member States, paying particular attention to its role in financing investments in low-carbon assets. It considers both the direct effects of green stimulus policies on decarbonisation in the EU and how these actions have shaped the capacities of the Commission as an actor in the field of climate and energy policy. The analysis reveals a significant expansion of the Commission’s role compared to the period following the financial crisis. EU-level measures have provided incentives for Member States to direct large volumes of financing towards investments in climate-friendly assets. Nevertheless, the ultimate impact will largely be shaped by implementation at the national level. KW - European Union KW - green recovery KW - climate finance KW - European Green Deal KW - just transition Y1 - 2023 SN - 978-1-78990-698-1 SN - 978-1-78990-697-4 U6 - https://doi.org/10.4337/9781789906981.00039 SP - 351 EP - 366 PB - Edward Elgar Publishing ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Ollier, Lana A1 - Melliger, Marc André A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Friends or foes? BT - Political synergy or competition between renewable energy and energy efficiency policy JF - Energies : open-access journal of related scientific research, technology development and studies in policy and management N2 - Energy efficiency measures and the deployment of renewable energy are commonly presented as two sides of the same coin-as necessary and synergistic measures to decarbonize energy systems and reach the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. Here, we quantitatively investigate the policies and performances of the EU Member States to see whether renewables and energy efficiency policies are politically synergistic or if they rather compete for political attention and resources. We find that Member States, especially the ones perceived as climate leaders, tend to prioritize renewables over energy efficiency in target setting. Further, almost every country performs well in either renewable energy or energy efficiency, but rarely performs well in both. We find no support for the assertion that the policies are synergistic, but some evidence that they compete. However, multi-linear regression models for performance show that performance, especially in energy efficiency, is also strongly associated with general economic growth cycles, and not only efficiency policy as such. We conclude that renewable energy and energy efficiency are not synergistic policies, and that there is some competition between them. KW - energy efficiency KW - renewable energy KW - climate policy KW - policy cycle KW - EU KW - policy competition Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.3390/en13236339 SN - 1996-1073 VL - 13 IS - 23 PB - MDPI CY - Basel ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Chatterjee, Souran A1 - Stavrakas, Vassilis A1 - Oreggioni, Gabriel A1 - Süsser, Diana A1 - Staffell, Iain A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Molnar, Gergely A1 - Flamos, Alexandros A1 - Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana T1 - Existing tools, user needs and required model adjustments for energy demand modelling of a carbon-neutral Europe JF - Energy research & social science N2 - To achieve the European Union's target for climate neutrality by 2050 reduced energy demand will make the transition process faster and cheaper. The role of policies that support energy efficiency measures and demand-side management practices will be critical and to ensure that energy demand models are relevant to policymakers and other end-users, understanding how to further improve the models and whether they are tailored to user needs to support efficient decision-making processes is crucial. So far though, no scientific studies have examined the key user needs for energy demand modelling in the context of the climate neutrality targets. In this article we address this gap using a multi-method approach based on empirical and desk research. Through survey and stakeholder meetings and workshops we identify user needs of different stakeholder groups, and we highlight the direction in which energy demand models need to be improved to be relevant to their users. Through a detailed review of existing energy demand models, we provide a full understanding of the key characteristics and capabilities of existing tools, and we identify their limitations and gaps. Our findings show that classical demand-related questions remain important to model users, while most of the existing models can answer these questions. Furthermore, we show that some of the user needs related to sectoral demand modelling, dictated by the latest policy developments, are under-researched and are not addressed by existing tools. KW - energy demand KW - climate neutrality KW - demand-side management KW - model adjustments KW - energy demand modelling Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102662 SN - 2214-6296 VL - 90 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kleanthis, Nikos A1 - Stavrakas, Vassilis A1 - Ceglarz, Andrzej A1 - Süsser, Diana A1 - Schibline, Amanda A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Flamos, Alexandros T1 - Eliciting knowledge from stakeholders to identify critical issues of the transition to climate neutrality in Greece, the Nordic Region, and the European Union JF - Energy research & social ccience N2 - There are considerable differences in the pace and underlying motivations of the energy transition in the different geographical contexts across Europe. The European Union's commitment to climate neutrality by 2050 requires a better understanding of the energy transition in different contexts and scales to improve cooperation of involved actors. In this article, we identify critical issues and challenges of the European energy transition as perceived by stakeholders and investigate how these perceptions vary across geographical contexts. To do so, we couple a policy document analysis with research based on stakeholder engagement activities in three different scales, national (Greece), regional (Nordic Region) and continental scale (European Union). Our findings show that stakeholder perspectives on the energy transition depend on contextual factors underlying the need for policies sensitive to the different transition issues and challenges in European regions. They also reveal cross-cutting issues and challenges among the three case studies, which could lead to further improvement of the cross-country collaboration to foster the European energy transition. KW - challenges KW - case studies KW - energy policy KW - energy transition KW - climate neutrality KW - stakeholder engagement Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102836 SN - 2214-6296 VL - 93 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Melliger, Marc André A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Effects of coordinating support policy changes on renewable power investor choices in Europe JF - Energy policy : the international journal of the political, economic, planning, environmental and social aspects of energy N2 - The economic context for renewable power in Europe is shifting: feed-in tariffs are replaced by auctioned premiums as the main support schemes. As renewables approach competitiveness, political pressure mounts to phase out support, whereas some other actors perceive a need for continued fixed-price support. We investigate how the phase-out of support or the reintroduction of feed-in tariffs would affect investors' choices for renewables through a conjoint analysis. In particular, we analyse the impact of coordination - the simultaneousness - of policy changes across countries and technologies. We find that investment choices are not strongly affected if policy changes are coordinated and returns unaffected. However, if policy changes are uncoordinated, investments shift to still supported - less mature and costlier - technologies or countries where support remains or is reintroduced. This shift is particularly strong for large investors and could potentially skew the European power mix towards an over-reliance on a single, less mature technology or specific generation region, resulting in a more expensive power system. If European countries want to change their renewable power support policies, and especially if they phase out support and expose renewables to market competition, it is important that they coordinate their actions. KW - Policy change KW - Policy coordination KW - Renewable energy KW - Investment KW - decision KW - Choice experiment KW - Adaptive conjoint analysis Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2020.111993 SN - 0301-4215 VL - 148 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bersalli, Germán A1 - Tröndle, Tim A1 - Heckmann, Leon A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Economic crises as critical junctures for policy and structural changes towards decarbonization BT - the cases of Spain and Germany JF - Climate policy N2 - Crises may act as tipping points for decarbonization pathways by triggering structural economic change or offering windows of opportunity for policy change. We investigate both types of effects of the global financial and COVID-19 crises on decarbonization in Spain and Germany through a quantitative Kaya-decomposition analysis of CO2 emissions and through a qualitative review of climate and energy policy changes. We show that the global financial crisis resulted in a critical juncture for Spanish CO2 emissions due to the combined effects of the deep economic recession and crisis-induced structural change, resulting in reductions in carbon and energy intensities and shifts in the economic structure. However, the crisis also resulted in a rollback of renewable energy policy, halting progress in the transition to green electricity. The impacts were less pronounced in Germany, where pre-existing decarbonization and policy trends continued after the crisis. Recovery packages had modest effects, primarily due to their temporary nature and the limited share of climate-related spending. The direct short-term impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on CO2 emissions were more substantial in Spain than in Germany. The policy responses in both countries sought to align short-term economic recovery with the long-term climate change goals of decarbonization, but it is too soon to observe their lasting effects. Our findings show that crises can affect structural change and support decarbonization but suggest that such effects depend on pre-existing trends, the severity of the crisis and political manoeuvring during the crisis. KW - COVID-19 KW - climate policy KW - decarbonization KW - structural change KW - economic crisis KW - green recovery Y1 - 2024 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2024.2301750 SN - 1469-3062 SN - 1752-7457 VL - 24 IS - 3 SP - 410 EP - 427 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schäppi, Remo A1 - Rutz, David A1 - Dähler, Fabian A1 - Muroyama, Alexander A1 - Haueter, Philipp A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Patt, Anthony A1 - Furler, Philipp A1 - Steinfeld, Aldo T1 - Drop-in fuels from sunlight and air JF - Nature : the international weekly journal of science N2 - Aviation and shipping currently contribute approximately 8% of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with growth in tourism and global trade projected to increase this contribution further(1-3). Carbon-neutral transportation is feasible with electric motors powered by rechargeable batteries, but is challenging, if not impossible, for long-haul commercial travel, particularly airtravel(4). A promising solution are drop-in fuels (synthetic alternatives for petroleum-derived liquid hydrocarbon fuels such as kerosene, gasoline or diesel) made from H2O and CO2 by solar-driven processes(5-7).Among the many possible approaches, the thermochemical path using concentrated solar radiation as the source of high-temperature process heat offers potentially high production rates and efficiencies(8), and can deliver truly carbon-neutral fuels if the required CO2 is obtained directly from atmospheric air(9) . If H2O is also extracted from air(10), feedstock sourcing and fuel production can be colocated in desert regions with high solar irradiation and limited accessto water resources. While individual steps of such a scheme have been implemented, here we demonstrate the operation of the entire thermochemical solar fuel production chain, from H2O and CO2 captured directly from ambient air to the synthesis of drop-in transportation fuels (for example, methanol and kerosene), with a modular 5 kW(thermal) pilot-scale solar system operated under field conditions. We further identify the research and development efforts and discuss the economic viability and policies required to bring these solar fuels to market. KW - chemical engineering KW - hydrogen energy KW - mechanical engineering KW - solar fuels KW - solar thermal energy Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-04174-y SN - 0028-0836 SN - 1476-4687 VL - 601 IS - 7891 SP - 63 EP - 80 PB - Macmillan Publishers Limited, part of Springer Nature CY - Berlin ER - TY - GEN A1 - Thonig, Richard A1 - Del Rio, Pablo A1 - Kiefer, Christoph A1 - Lazaro Touza, Lara A1 - Escribano, Gonzalo A1 - Lechon, Yolanda A1 - Spaeth, Leonhard A1 - Wolf, Ingo A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Does ideology influence the ambition level of climate and renewable energy policy? BT - Insights from four European countries T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - We investigate whether political ideology has an observable effect on decarbonization ambition, renewable power aims, and preferences for power system balancing technologies in four European countries. Based on the Energy Logics framework, we identify ideologically different transition strategies (state-centered, market-centered, grassroots-centered) contained in government policies and opposition party programs valid in 2019. We compare these policies and programs with citizen poll data. We find that ideology has a small effect: governments and political parties across the spectrum have similar, and relatively ambitious, decarbonization and renewables targets. This mirrors citizens' strong support for ambitious action regardless of their ideological self-description. However, whereas political positions on phasing out fossil fuel power are clear across the policy space, positions on phasing in new flexibility options to balance intermittent renewables are vague or non-existent. As parties and citizens agree on strong climate and renewable power aims, the policy ambition is likely to remain high, even if governments change. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliche Reihe - 161 KW - political ideology KW - climate policy KW - energy policy KW - europe KW - european KW - Union KW - renewable energy KW - flexibility Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-577981 SN - 1867-5808 IS - 1 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thonig, Richard A1 - Del Rio, Pablo A1 - Kiefer, Christoph A1 - Lazaro Touza, Lara A1 - Escribano, Gonzalo A1 - Lechon, Yolanda A1 - Spaeth, Leonhard A1 - Wolf, Ingo A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Does ideology influence the ambition level of climate and renewable energy policy? BT - Insights from four European countries JF - Energy sources, part B: economics, planning, and policy N2 - We investigate whether political ideology has an observable effect on decarbonization ambition, renewable power aims, and preferences for power system balancing technologies in four European countries. Based on the Energy Logics framework, we identify ideologically different transition strategies (state-centered, market-centered, grassroots-centered) contained in government policies and opposition party programs valid in 2019. We compare these policies and programs with citizen poll data. We find that ideology has a small effect: governments and political parties across the spectrum have similar, and relatively ambitious, decarbonization and renewables targets. This mirrors citizens' strong support for ambitious action regardless of their ideological self-description. However, whereas political positions on phasing out fossil fuel power are clear across the policy space, positions on phasing in new flexibility options to balance intermittent renewables are vague or non-existent. As parties and citizens agree on strong climate and renewable power aims, the policy ambition is likely to remain high, even if governments change. KW - political ideology KW - climate policy KW - energy policy KW - europe KW - european KW - Union KW - renewable energy KW - flexibility Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2020.1811806 SN - 1556-7249 SN - 1556-7257 VL - 16 IS - 1 SP - 4 EP - 22 PB - Taylor & Francis Group CY - Philadelphia ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Resch, Gustav A1 - Schöniger, Franziska A1 - Kleinschmitt, Christoph A1 - Franke, Katja A1 - Thonig, Richard A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Deep decarbonization of the European power sector calls for dispatchable CSP JF - AIP conference proceedings N2 - Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) offers flexible and decarbonized power generation and is one of the few dispatchable renewable technologies able to generate renewable electricity on demand. Today (2018) CSP contributes only 5TWh to the European power generation, but it has the potential to become one of the key pillars for European decarbonization pathways. In this paper we investigate how factors and pivotal policy decisions leading to different futures and associated CSP deployment in Europe in the years up to 2050. In a second step we characterize the scenarios with their associated system cost and the costs of support policies. We show that the role of CSP in Europe critically depends on political developments and the success or failure of policies outside renewable power. In particular, the uptake of CSP depends on the overall decarbonization ambition, the degree of cross border trade of renewable electricity and is enabled by the presence of strong grid interconnection between Southern and Norther European Member States as well as by future electricity demand growth. The presence of other baseload technologies, prominently nuclear power in France, reduce the role and need for CSP. Assuming favorable technological development, we find a strong role for CSP in Europe in all modeled scenarios: contributing between 100TWh to 300TWh of electricity to a future European power system. This would require increasing the current European CSP fleet by a factor of 20 to 60 in the next 30 years. To achieve this financial support between € 0.4-2 billion per year into CSP would be needed, representing only a small share of overall support needs for power-system transformation. Cooperation of Member States could further help to reduce this cost. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0086710 SN - 1551-7616 SN - 0094-243X SP - 050006-1 EP - 050006-9 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Melville ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thonig, Richard A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Concentrating solar technology policy should encourage high temperatures and modularity to enable spillovers JF - AIP conference proceedings N2 - Thermal energy from concentrating solar thermal technologies (CST) may contribute to decarbonizing applications from heating and cooling, desalination, and power generation to commodities such as aluminium, hydrogen, ammonia or sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). So far, successful commercial-scale CST projects are restricted to solar industrial process heat (SIPH) and concentrating solar power (CSP) generation and, at least for the latter, depend on support from public policies that have been stagnating for years. As they are technologically similar, spillovers between SIPH or CSP and other emerging CST could accelerate commercialization across use cases while maximizing the impact of scarce support. Here, we review the technical potential for cross-fertilization between different CST applications and the ability of the current policy regime to enable this potential. Using working temperature as the key variable, we identify different clusters of current and emerging CST technologies. Low-temperature CST (<400℃) applications for heating, cooling and desalination already profit from the significant progress made in line-focussing CSP over the last 15 years. A newly emerging cluster of high temperature CST (>600℃) for solar chemistry and high-grade process heat has significant leverage for spillovers with point-focussing solar tower third-generation CSP currently under development. For these spillovers to happen, however, CSP policy designs would need to prioritize innovation for high working temperature and encourage modular plant design, by adequately remunerating hybridized plants with heat and power in and outputs that include energy sources beyond CST solar fields. This would enable synergies across applications and scales by incentivizing compatibility of modular CST components in multiple sectors and use cases. Y1 - 2023 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0149423 SN - 1551-7616 SN - 0094-243X IS - 1 SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Melville ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Thonig, Richard A1 - Gilmanova, Alina A1 - Zhan, Jing A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Chinese CSP for the world? JF - AIP conference proceedings N2 - For three consecutive five-year plans since 2006, China has worked on building up an internationally competitive CSP industry and value chain. One big milestone in commercializing proprietary Chinese CSP technology was the 2016 demonstration program of 20 commercial-scale projects. China sought to increase and demonstrate capacities for domestic CSP technology development and deployment. At the end of the 13th five-year period, we take stock of the demonstrated progress of the Chinese CSP industry towards delivering internationally competitive CSP projects. We find that in January 2021, eight commercial-scale projects, in total 500 MW, have been completed and three others were under construction in China. In addition, Chinese EPC’s have participated in three international CSP projects, although proprietary Chinese CSP designs have not been applied outside China. The largest progress has been made in molten-salt tower technology, with several projects by different companies completed and operating successfully: here, the aims were met, and Chinese companies are now at the global forefront of this segment. Further efforts for large-scale demonstration are needed, however, for other CSP technologies, including parabolic trough - with additional demonstration hindered by a lack of further deployment policies. In the near future, Chinese companies seek to employ the demonstrated capabilities in the tower segment abroad and are developing projects using Chinese technology, financing, and components in several overseas markets. If successful, this will likely lead to increasing competition and further cost reductions for the global CSP sector. Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0085752 SN - 1551-7616 SN - 0094-243X SP - 1 EP - 11 PB - American Institute of Physics CY - Melville ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gilmanova, Alina A1 - Wang, Zhifeng A1 - Gosens, Jorrit A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Building an internationally competitive concentrating solar power industry in China BT - lessons from wind power and photovoltaics JF - Energy sources : B, economics, planning and policy N2 - This article draws lessons from experiences of developing the photovoltaic (PV) and onshore wind power sectors in China for the development of Chinese Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) into an internationally competitive industry. We analyze the sectoral development with a framework that expands on the concept of lead markets, identifying factors that determine whether domestic industrial development paths may or may not generate export success. We find that the Chinese CSP sector has good potential for becoming internationally competitive because of a strong Chinese knowledge base, a clear eye for product quality, standard-setting, and a focus on the high-efficiency and large-storage technological routes most likely to see growing demand in future international markets. Chinese solar towers are already cheaper than international competitors and so far, appear reliable. However, continued and stable deployment support for CSP, designed to reward dispatchable solar power generation, enabling continued domestic learning-by-doing and -interacting is likely required to realize this export potential. To date, Chinese CSP policy has done many things right and, if the domestic market is maintained through renewed support, has put the Chinese industry well on the path to international competitiveness. KW - lead markets KW - China KW - concentrated solar power KW - renewable energy industry KW - international competitiveness Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/15567249.2021.1931563 SN - 1556-7249 SN - 1556-7257 VL - 16 IS - 6 SP - 515 EP - 541 PB - Taylor & Francis CY - London ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Krupnik, Seweryn A1 - Wagner, Aleksandra A1 - Vincent, Olga A1 - Rudek, Tadeusz J. A1 - Wade, Robert A1 - Misik, Matúš A1 - Akerboom, Sanne A1 - Foulds, Chris A1 - Smith Stegen, Karen A1 - Adem, Çiğdem A1 - Batel, Susana A1 - Rabitz, Florian A1 - Certomà, Chiara A1 - Chodkowska-Miszczuk, Justyna A1 - Dokupilová, Dušana A1 - Leiren, Merethe D. A1 - Ignatieva, Frolova M. A1 - Gabaldón-Estevan, Daniel. A1 - Horta, Ana A1 - Karnøe, Peter A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Loorbach, Derk A. A1 - Mühlemeier, Susan A1 - Némoz, Sophie A1 - Nilsson, Måns A1 - Osička, Jan A1 - Papamikrouli, Louiza A1 - Pellizioni, Luigi A1 - Sareen, Siddharth A1 - Sarrica, Mauro A1 - Seyfang, Gill A1 - Sovacool, Benjamin K. A1 - Telesiene, Audrone A1 - Zapletalova, Veronika A1 - von Wirth, Timo T1 - Beyond technology BT - a research agenda for social sciences and humanities research on renewable energy in Europe JF - Energy research & social science N2 - This article enriches the existing literature on the importance and role of the social sciences and humanities (SSH) in renewable energy sources research by providing a novel approach to instigating the future research agenda in this field. Employing a series of in-depth interviews, deliberative focus group workshops and a systematic horizon scanning process, which utilised the expert knowledge of 85 researchers from the field with diverse disciplinary backgrounds and expertise, the paper develops a set of 100 priority questions for future research within SSH scholarship on renewable energy sources. These questions were aggregated into four main directions: (i) deep transformations and connections to the broader economic system (i.e. radical ways of (re)arranging socio-technical, political and economic relations), (ii) cultural and geographical diversity (i.e. contextual cultural, historical, political and socio-economic factors influencing citizen support for energy transitions), (iii) complexifying energy governance (i.e. understanding energy systems from a systems dynamics perspective) and (iv) shifting from instrumental acceptance to value-based objectives (i.e. public support for energy transitions as a normative notion linked to trust-building and citizen engagement). While this agenda is not intended to be—and cannot be—exhaustive or exclusive, we argue that it advances the understanding of SSH research on renewable energy sources and may have important value in the prioritisation of SSH themes needed to enrich dialogues between policymakers, funding institutions and researchers. SSH scholarship should not be treated as instrumental to other research on renewable energy but as intrinsic and of the same hierarchical importance. KW - horizon scanning KW - research priorities KW - funding directions KW - EU Horizon Europe KW - research-policy interface Y1 - 2022 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102536 SN - 22146296 VL - 89 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Süsser, Diana A1 - Gaschnig, Hannes A1 - Ceglarz, Andrzej A1 - Stavrakas, Vassilis A1 - Flamos, Alexandros A1 - Lilliestam, Johan T1 - Better suited or just more complex? BT - on the fit between user needs and modeller-driven improvements of energy system models JF - Energy N2 - Energy system models are advancing rapidly. However, it is not clear whether models are becoming better, in the sense that they address the questions that decision-makers need to be answered to make well-informed decisions. Therefore, we investigate the gap between model improvements relevant from the perspective of modellers compared to what users of model results think models should address. Thus, we ask: What are the differences between energy model improvements as perceived by modellers, and the actual needs of users of model results? To answer this question, we conducted a literature review, 32 interviews, and an online survey. Our results show that user needs and ongoing improvements of energy system models align to a large degree so that future models are indeed likely to be better than current models. We also find mismatches between the needs of modellers and users, especially in the modelling of social, behavioural and political aspects, the trade-off between model complexity and understandability, and the ways that model results should be communicated. Our findings suggest that a better understanding of user needs and closer cooperation between modellers and users is imperative to truly improve models and unlock their full potential to support the transition towards climate neutrality in Europe. KW - energy systems modelling KW - energy transition KW - user needs KW - energy policymaking KW - climate neutrality KW - European union Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.121909 SN - 0360-5442 SN - 1873-6785 VL - 239 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gamarra, Ana Rosa A1 - Lechón, Yolanda A1 - Escribano, Gonzalo A1 - Lilliestam, Johan A1 - Lázaro, Lara A1 - Caldés, Natàlia T1 - Assessing dependence and governance as value chain risks BT - natural gas versus concentrated solar power plants in Mexico JF - Environmental impact assessment review N2 - Despite geopolitics play a pivotal role in the energy sector, geopolitical aspects are often not considered in the quantitative assessment models aimed at supporting the energy investment decision-making process. To address this issue, this work proposes an Extended Multi-regional Input-Output model (EMRIO) that incorporates import dependence and governance along the value chain. As case study, two alternative energy investments in Mexico – a Natural Gas Power plant (NG) and a Concentrated Solar Power plant (CSP) – are assessed. The method quantifies the geographical diversification of suppliers and the quality of governance. The assessment of the case study shows that the supply chain of the CSP plant includes more countries and with better governance levels than the supply chain of the NG power plant. That means, a priori, that the supply risks of investing in CSP power plants will be lower, as will suppliers' endogenous geopolitical risk. However, a sensitivity analysis considering different providers of the solar plant components reveals that CSP plant value chain could also entail similar or even higher governance risks levels as the NG plant. The scenario where China provides some of the components entails a much higher governance risks, even higher than the NG base case. In consequence, we have proved that the method proposed allows the identification of hidden geopolitical risks that would otherwise go unnoticed. This paper enlarges the existing knowledge on assessment methodologies for energy policy decision-support by measuring diversification and imports dependence from countries with different levels of governance along the whole value chain. KW - value chain analysis KW - dependence analysis KW - governance analysis KW - concentrated solar power KW - multi-regional input-output KW - iintegrated sustainability assessment Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2021.106708 SN - 0195-9255 VL - 93 IS - 106708 PB - Elsevier Science CY - Amsterdam ER -