TY - GEN A1 - Pilz, Marco A1 - Cotton, Fabrice Pierre A1 - Razafindrakoto, Hoby Njara Tendrisoa A1 - Weatherill, Graeme A1 - Spies, Thomas T1 - Regional broad-band ground-shaking modelling over extended and thick sedimentary basins BT - An example from the Lower Rhine Embayment (Germany) T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The simulation of broad-band (0.1 to 10 + Hz) ground-shaking over deep and spatially extended sedimentary basins at regional scales is challenging. We evaluate the ground-shaking of a potential M 6.5 earthquake in the southern Lower Rhine Embayment, one of the most important areas of earthquake recurrence north of the Alps, close to the city of Cologne in Germany. In a first step, information from geological investigations, seismic experiments and boreholes is combined for deriving a harmonized 3D velocity and attenuation model of the sedimentary layers. Three alternative approaches are then applied and compared to evaluate the impact of the sedimentary cover on ground-motion amplification. The first approach builds on existing response spectra ground-motion models whose amplification factors empirically take into account the influence of the sedimentary layers through a standard parameterization. In the second approach, site-specific 1D amplification functions are computed from the 3D basin model. Using a random vibration theory approach, we adjust the empirical response spectra predicted for soft rock conditions by local site amplification factors: amplifications and associated ground-motions are predicted both in the Fourier and in the response spectra domain. In the third approach, hybrid physics-based ground-motion simulations are used to predict time histories for soft rock conditions which are subsequently modified using the 1D site-specific amplification functions computed in method 2. For large distances and at short periods, the differences between the three approaches become less notable due to the significant attenuation of the sedimentary layers. At intermediate and long periods, generic empirical ground-motion models provide lower levels of amplification from sedimentary soils compared to methods taking into account site-specific 1D amplification functions. In the near-source region, hybrid physics-based ground-motions models illustrate the potentially large variability of ground-motion due to finite source effects. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1371 KW - ground-motion modelling KW - site effects KW - scenario KW - random vibration KW - theory KW - hybrid modelling Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-571655 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 2 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Pilz, Marco A1 - Cotton, Fabrice Pierre A1 - Razafindrakoto, Hoby Njara Tendrisoa A1 - Weatherill, Graeme A1 - Spies, Thomas T1 - Regional broad-band ground-shaking modelling over extended and thick sedimentary basins BT - An example from the Lower Rhine Embayment (Germany) JF - Bulletin of earthquake engineering : official publication of the European Association for Earthquake Engineering N2 - The simulation of broad-band (0.1 to 10 + Hz) ground-shaking over deep and spatially extended sedimentary basins at regional scales is challenging. We evaluate the ground-shaking of a potential M 6.5 earthquake in the southern Lower Rhine Embayment, one of the most important areas of earthquake recurrence north of the Alps, close to the city of Cologne in Germany. In a first step, information from geological investigations, seismic experiments and boreholes is combined for deriving a harmonized 3D velocity and attenuation model of the sedimentary layers. Three alternative approaches are then applied and compared to evaluate the impact of the sedimentary cover on ground-motion amplification. The first approach builds on existing response spectra ground-motion models whose amplification factors empirically take into account the influence of the sedimentary layers through a standard parameterization. In the second approach, site-specific 1D amplification functions are computed from the 3D basin model. Using a random vibration theory approach, we adjust the empirical response spectra predicted for soft rock conditions by local site amplification factors: amplifications and associated ground-motions are predicted both in the Fourier and in the response spectra domain. In the third approach, hybrid physics-based ground-motion simulations are used to predict time histories for soft rock conditions which are subsequently modified using the 1D site-specific amplification functions computed in method 2. For large distances and at short periods, the differences between the three approaches become less notable due to the significant attenuation of the sedimentary layers. At intermediate and long periods, generic empirical ground-motion models provide lower levels of amplification from sedimentary soils compared to methods taking into account site-specific 1D amplification functions. In the near-source region, hybrid physics-based ground-motions models illustrate the potentially large variability of ground-motion due to finite source effects. KW - ground-motion modelling KW - site effects KW - scenario KW - random vibration KW - theory KW - hybrid modelling Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-020-01004-w SN - 1570-761X SN - 1573-1456 VL - 19 IS - 2 SP - 581 EP - 603 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jashari, Arbrie A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Dabić, Marina T1 - Tracing the progress of scenario research in business and management JF - Futures & foresight science N2 - Business and management research on scenarios has been highly productive over the decades but led to a complex literature that is hard to oversee. To organize the field and identify distinguishable research clusters, we conducted a co-citation analysis focusing on the long-term history of research. We compare our findings with a previously published bibliographic coupling, focusing on the more recent research to trace its development over time. Our study revealed six research clusters: (1) Planning the Future with Scenarios, (2) Scenario Planning in Strategic Management, (3) Reinforcing the Scenario Technique, (4) Integration of Scenario Planning and MCDA, (5) Combination of Different Methods, and (6) Decision-making through Stochastic Programming, whereas the bibliographic coupling generated 11 clusters. Some former research clusters were divided into separate new clusters, while others were united. Additionally, completely new clusters emerged. Future research on scenarios is expected (1) to further differentiate into strategy and operations, (2) to be based on “behavioral futures” or “behavioral foresight” as a new research stream, (3) to advance the scenario technique methodically and include new specific scenario generation methods, and (4) to put forth new application areas. KW - bibliometric analysis KW - business research KW - co‐citation analysis KW - management KW - scenario Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/ffo2.109 SN - 2573-5152 VL - 4 IS - 2 PB - John Wiley & Sons CY - Hoboken, NJ ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Gassmann, Shari-Estelle A1 - Nunkoo, Robin A1 - Tiberius, Victor A1 - Kraus, Sascha T1 - My home is your castle BT - forecasting the future of accommodation sharing JF - International journal of contemporary hospitality management N2 - Purpose This paper aims to formulate the most probable future scenario for the accommodation sharing sector within the next five to ten years. It addresses the following six thematic aspects: relevance, different forms of accommodation sharing, users, hosts, platforms, and finally, industry regulation. Design/methodology/approach This study identifies the most likely holistic future scenario by conducting a two-stage Delphi study involving 59 expert panelists. It addresses 33 projections for six thematic sections of the accommodation sharing industry: relevance, different forms of accommodation sharing, users, hosts, platforms, and finally, industry regulation. Findings The results indicate that the number of shared accommodations and users of home-sharing will increase. Moreover, the cost advantage is the predominant driver for users to engage in the accommodation sharing segment, and for the hosts, the generation of an extra income is the primary incentive. Finally, the regulation within this industry is expected to be more effective in the foreseeable future. Practical implications The results are critical, not only to advance our theoretical understanding and stimulate critical discussions on the long-term development of accommodation sharing but also to assist governments and policymakers who have an interest in developing and regulating this sector and developers seeking business opportunities. Originality/value While there is ample knowledge about the past and current development of accommodation sharing in tourism, little is understood about its potential future development and implications for consumers, the economy, and society. To date, no scientific research is available that develops scenarios about the future of accommodation sharing. KW - forecasting KW - Delphi KW - scenario KW - Airbnb KW - accommodation sharing Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-06-2020-0596 SN - 0959-6119 VL - 33 IS - 2 SP - 467 EP - 489 PB - Emerald CY - Bingley ER -