TY - GEN A1 - Jing, Miao A1 - Kumar, Rohini A1 - Heße, Falk A1 - Thober, Stephan A1 - Rakovec, Oldrich A1 - Samaniego, Luis A1 - Attinger, Sabine T1 - Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Groundwater is the biggest single source of high-quality freshwater worldwide, which is also continuously threatened by the changing climate. In this paper, we investigate the response of the regional groundwater system to climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C) in a central German basin (Nägelstedt). This investigation is conducted by deploying an integrated modeling workflow that consists of a mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) and a fully distributed groundwater model, OpenGeoSys (OGS). mHM is forced with climate simulations of five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways. The diffuse recharges estimated by mHM are used as boundary forcings to the OGS groundwater model to compute changes in groundwater levels and travel time distributions. Simulation results indicate that groundwater recharges and levels are expected to increase slightly under future climate scenarios. Meanwhile, the mean travel time is expected to decrease compared to the historical average. However, the ensemble simulations do not all agree on the sign of relative change. Changes in mean travel time exhibit a larger variability than those in groundwater levels. The ensemble simulations do not show a systematic relationship between the projected change (in both groundwater levels and travel times) and the warming level, but they indicate an increased variability in projected changes with adjusting the enhanced warming level from 1.5 to 3 ∘C. Correspondingly, it is highly recommended to restrain the trend of global warming. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1402 KW - climate change impacts KW - hydrological models KW - coupled surface KW - water fluxes KW - catchment KW - recharge KW - dynamics KW - aquifer KW - flow KW - parameterization Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-509343 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 3 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Jing, Miao A1 - Kumar, Rohini A1 - Heße, Falk A1 - Thober, Stephan A1 - Rakovec, Oldrich A1 - Samaniego, Luis A1 - Attinger, Sabine T1 - Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin JF - Hydrology and Earth System Sciences N2 - Groundwater is the biggest single source of high-quality freshwater worldwide, which is also continuously threatened by the changing climate. In this paper, we investigate the response of the regional groundwater system to climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C) in a central German basin (Nägelstedt). This investigation is conducted by deploying an integrated modeling workflow that consists of a mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) and a fully distributed groundwater model, OpenGeoSys (OGS). mHM is forced with climate simulations of five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways. The diffuse recharges estimated by mHM are used as boundary forcings to the OGS groundwater model to compute changes in groundwater levels and travel time distributions. Simulation results indicate that groundwater recharges and levels are expected to increase slightly under future climate scenarios. Meanwhile, the mean travel time is expected to decrease compared to the historical average. However, the ensemble simulations do not all agree on the sign of relative change. Changes in mean travel time exhibit a larger variability than those in groundwater levels. The ensemble simulations do not show a systematic relationship between the projected change (in both groundwater levels and travel times) and the warming level, but they indicate an increased variability in projected changes with adjusting the enhanced warming level from 1.5 to 3 ∘C. Correspondingly, it is highly recommended to restrain the trend of global warming. KW - climate change impacts KW - hydrological models KW - coupled surface KW - water fluxes KW - catchment KW - recharge KW - dynamics KW - aquifer KW - flow KW - parameterization Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-1511-2020 SN - 1607-7938 SN - 1027-5606 VL - 24 IS - 3 SP - 1511 EP - 1526 PB - Copernicus Publ. CY - Göttingen ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dormann, Carsten F. A1 - Schymanski, Stanislaus J. A1 - Cabral, Juliano Sarmento A1 - Chuine, Isabelle A1 - Graham, Catherine A1 - Hartig, Florian A1 - Kearney, Michael A1 - Morin, Xavier A1 - Römermann, Christine A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris A1 - Singer, Alexander T1 - Correlation and process in species distribution models: bridging a dichotomy JF - Journal of biogeography N2 - Within the field of species distribution modelling an apparent dichotomy exists between process-based and correlative approaches, where the processes are explicit in the former and implicit in the latter. However, these intuitive distinctions can become blurred when comparing species distribution modelling approaches in more detail. In this review article, we contrast the extremes of the correlativeprocess spectrum of species distribution models with respect to core assumptions, model building and selection strategies, validation, uncertainties, common errors and the questions they are most suited to answer. The extremes of such approaches differ clearly in many aspects, such as model building approaches, parameter estimation strategies and transferability. However, they also share strengths and weaknesses. We show that claims of one approach being intrinsically superior to the other are misguided and that they ignore the processcorrelation continuum as well as the domains of questions that each approach is addressing. Nonetheless, the application of process-based approaches to species distribution modelling lags far behind more correlative (process-implicit) methods and more research is required to explore their potential benefits. Critical issues for the employment of species distribution modelling approaches are given, together with a guideline for appropriate usage. We close with challenges for future development of process-explicit species distribution models and how they may complement current approaches to study species distributions. KW - Hypothesis generation KW - mechanistic model KW - parameterization KW - process-based model KW - species distribution model KW - SDM KW - uncertainty KW - validation Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2011.02659.x SN - 0305-0270 VL - 39 IS - 12 SP - 2119 EP - 2131 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER -