TY - JOUR A1 - Risbey, James S. A1 - Lewandowsky, Stephan A1 - Cowtan, Kevin A1 - Oreskes, Naomi A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Jokimäki, Ari A1 - Foster, Grant T1 - A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context BT - reassessment and retrospective on the evidence JF - Environmental research letters N2 - This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing. KW - climate variability KW - climate trends KW - temperature fluctuation KW - pause hiatus Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342 SN - 1748-9326 VL - 13 IS - 12 PB - IOP Publ. Ltd. CY - Bristol ER - TY - GEN A1 - Risbey, James S. A1 - Lewandowsky, Stephan A1 - Cowtan, Kevin A1 - Oreskes, Naomi A1 - Rahmstorf, Stefan A1 - Jokimäki, Ari A1 - Foster, Grant T1 - A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context BT - reassessment and retrospective on the evidence T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - This work reviews the literature on an alleged global warming 'pause' in global mean surface temperature (GMST) to determine how it has been defined, what time intervals are used to characterise it, what data are used to measure it, and what methods used to assess it. We test for 'pauses', both in the normally understood meaning of the term to mean no warming trend, as well as for a 'pause' defined as a substantially slower trend in GMST. The tests are carried out with the historical versions of GMST that existed for each pause-interval tested, and with current versions of each of the GMST datasets. The tests are conducted following the common (but questionable) practice of breaking the linear fit at the start of the trend interval ('broken' trends), and also with trends that are continuous with the data bordering the trend interval. We also compare results when appropriate allowance is made for the selection bias problem. The results show that there is little or no statistical evidence for a lack of trend or slower trend in GMST using either the historical data or the current data. The perception that there was a 'pause' in GMST was bolstered by earlier biases in the data in combination with incomplete statistical testing. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1023 KW - climate variability KW - climate trends KW - temperature fluctuation KW - pause hiatus Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468041 SN - 1866-8372 VL - 13 IS - 1023 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Neugebauer, Ina A1 - Schwab, M. J. A1 - Waldmann, Nicolas D. A1 - Tjallingii, Rik A1 - Frank, U. A1 - Hadzhiivanova, E. A1 - Naumann, R. A1 - Taha, N. A1 - Agnon, Amotz A1 - Enzel, Y. A1 - Brauer, Achim T1 - Hydroclimatic variability in the Levant during the early last glacial (similar to 117-75 ka) derived from micro-facies analyses of deep Dead Sea sediments T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The new sediment record from the deep Dead Sea basin (ICDP core 5017-1) provides a unique archive for hydroclimatic variability in the Levant. Here, we present high-resolution sediment facies analysis and elemental composition by micro-X-ray fluorescence (mu XRF) scanning of core 5017-1 to trace lake levels and responses of the regional hydroclimatology during the time interval from ca. 117 to 75 ka, i. e. the transition between the last interglacial and the onset of the last glaciation. We distinguished six major micro-facies types and interpreted these and their alterations in the core in terms of relative lake level changes. The two end-member facies for highest and lowest lake levels are (a) up to several metres thick, greenish sediments of alternating aragonite and detrital marl laminae (aad) and (b) thick halite facies, respectively. Intermediate lake levels are characterised by detrital marls with varying amounts of aragonite, gypsum or halite, reflecting lower-amplitude, shorter-term variability. Two intervals of pronounced lake level drops occurred at similar to 110-108 +/- 5 and similar to 93-87 +/- 7 ka. They likely coincide with stadial conditions in the central Mediterranean (Melisey I and II pollen zones in Monticchio) and low global sea levels during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5d and 5b. However, our data do not support the current hypothesis of an almost complete desiccation of the Dead Sea during the earlier of these lake level low stands based on a recovered gravel layer. Based on new petrographic analyses, we propose that, although it was a low stand, this well-sorted gravel layer may be a vestige of a thick turbidite that has been washed out during drilling rather than an in situ beach deposit. Two intervals of higher lake stands at similar to 108-93 +/- 6 and similar to 87-75 +/- 7 ka correspond to interstadial conditions in the central Mediterranean, i. e. pollen zones St. Germain I and II in Monticchio, and Greenland interstadials (GI) 24+23 and 21 in Greenland, as well as to sapropels S4 and S3 in the Mediterranean Sea. These apparent correlations suggest a close link of the climate in the Levant to North Atlantic and Mediterranean climates during the time of the build-up of Northern Hemisphere ice shields in the early last glacial period. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 549 KW - Lake Lisan KW - Middle-east KW - ice-sheet KW - hydrological condition KW - climate variability KW - tropical plumes KW - Winter rainfall KW - Southern Levant KW - soreq cave KW - Near-east Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-411879 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 549 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Laepple, Thomas A1 - Münch, Thomas A1 - Casado, Mathieu A1 - Hoerhold, Maria A1 - Landais, Amaelle A1 - Kipfstuhl, Sepp T1 - On the similarity and apparent cycles of isotopic variations in East Antarctic snow pits T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Stable isotope ratios delta O-18 and delta D in polar ice provide a wealth of information about past climate evolution. Snow-pit studies allow us to relate observed weather and climate conditions to the measured isotope variations in the snow. They therefore offer the possibility to test our understanding of how isotope signals are formed and stored in firn and ice. As delta O-18 and delta D in the snowfall are strongly correlated to air temperature, isotopes in the near-surface snow are thought to record the seasonal cycle at a given site. Accordingly, the number of seasonal cycles observed over a given depth should depend on the accumulation rate of snow. However, snow-pit studies from different accumulation conditions in East Antarctica reported similar isotopic variability and comparable apparent cycles in the delta O-18 and delta D profiles with typical wavelengths of similar to 20 cm. These observations are unexpected as the accumulation rates strongly differ between the sites, ranging from 20 to 80mmw.e.yr(-1) (similar to 6-21 cm of snow per year). Various mechanisms have been proposed to explain the isotopic variations individually at each site; however, none of these are consistent with the similarity of the different profiles independent of the local accumulation conditions. Here, we systematically analyse the properties and origins of delta O-18 and delta D variations in high-resolution firn profiles from eight East Antarctic sites. First, we confirm the suggested cycle length (mean distance between peaks) of similar to 20 cm by counting the isotopic maxima. Spectral analysis further shows a strong similarity between the sites but indicates no dominant periodic features. Furthermore, the appar-ent cycle length increases with depth for most East Antarctic sites, which is inconsistent with burial and compression of a regular seasonal cycle. We show that these results can be explained by isotopic diffusion acting on a noise-dominated isotope signal. The firn diffusion length is rather stable across the Antarctic Plateau and thus leads to similar power spectral densities of the isotopic variations. This in turn implies a similar distance between isotopic maxima in the firn profiles. Our results explain a large set of observations discussed in the literature, providing a simple explanation for the interpretation of apparent cycles in shallow isotope records, without invoking complex mechanisms. Finally, the results underline previous suggestions that isotope signals in single ice cores from low-accumulation regions have a small signal-to-noise ratio and thus likely do not allow the reconstruction of interannual to decadal climate variations. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 932 KW - Dronning-Maud-Land KW - ice-core KW - climate variability KW - surface snow KW - stable-isotopes KW - water-isotopes KW - oxygen-isotope KW - south-pole KW - athmospheric circulation KW - mathematical-analysis Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446052 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 932 SP - 169 EP - 187 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Giling, Darren P. A1 - Nejstgaard, Jens C. A1 - Berger, Stella A. A1 - Grossart, Hans-Peter A1 - Kirillin, Georgiy A1 - Penske, Armin A1 - Lentz, Maren A1 - Casper, Peter A1 - Sareyka, Joerg A1 - Gessner, Mark O. T1 - Thermocline deepening boosts ecosystem metabolism: evidence from a large-scale lake enclosure experiment simulating a summer storm JF - Global change biology N2 - Extreme weather events can pervasively influence ecosystems. Observations in lakes indicate that severe storms in particular can have pronounced ecosystem-scale consequences, but the underlying mechanisms have not been rigorously assessed in experiments. One major effect of storms on lakes is the redistribution of mineral resources and plankton communities as a result of abrupt thermocline deepening. We aimed at elucidating the importance of this effect by mimicking in replicated large enclosures (each 9 m in diameter, ca. 20 m deep, ca. 1300 m 3 in volume) a mixing event caused by a severe natural storm that was previously observed in a deep clear-water lake. Metabolic rates were derived from diel changes in vertical profiles of dissolved oxygen concentrations using a Bayesian modelling approach, based on high-frequency measurements. Experimental thermocline deepening stimulated daily gross primary production (GPP) in surface waters by an average of 63% for > 4 weeks even though thermal stratification re-established within 5 days. Ecosystem respiration (ER) was tightly coupled to GPP, exceeding that in control enclosures by 53% over the same period. As GPP responded more strongly than ER, net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of the entire water column was also increased. These protracted increases in ecosystem metabolism and autotrophy were driven by a proliferation of inedible filamentous cyanobacteria released from light and nutrient limitation after they were entrained from below the thermocline into the surface water. Thus, thermocline deepening by a single severe storm can induce prolonged responses of lake ecosystem metabolism independent of other storm-induced effects, such as inputs of terrestrial materials by increased catchment run-off. This highlights that future shifts in frequency, severity or timing of storms are an important component of climate change, whose impacts on lake thermal structure will superimpose upon climate trends to influence algal dynamics and organic matter cycling in clear-water lakes. Keywords: climate variability, ecosystem productivity, extreme events, gross primary production, mesocosm, respiration stratified lakes KW - climate variability KW - ecosystem productivity KW - extreme events KW - gross primary production KW - mesocosm KW - respiration stratified lakes Y1 - 2017 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13512 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 23 SP - 1448 EP - 1462 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Frank, Dorothe A. A1 - Reichstein, Markus A1 - Bahn, Michael A1 - Thonicke, Kirsten A1 - Frank, David A1 - Mahecha, Miguel D. A1 - Smith, Pete A1 - Van der Velde, Marijn A1 - Vicca, Sara A1 - Babst, Flurin A1 - Beer, Christian A1 - Buchmann, Nina A1 - Canadell, Josep G. A1 - Ciais, Philippe A1 - Cramer, Wolfgang A1 - Ibrom, Andreas A1 - Miglietta, Franco A1 - Poulter, Ben A1 - Rammig, Anja A1 - Seneviratne, Sonia I. A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Wattenbach, Martin A1 - Zavala, Miguel A. A1 - Zscheischler, Jakob T1 - Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts, processes and potential future impacts JF - Global change biology N2 - Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks. KW - carbon cycle KW - climate change KW - climate extremes KW - climate variability KW - disturbance KW - terrestrial ecosystems Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12916 SN - 1354-1013 SN - 1365-2486 VL - 21 IS - 8 SP - 2861 EP - 2880 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - THES A1 - Castino, Fabiana T1 - Climate variability and extreme hydro-meteorological events in the Southern Central Andes, NW Argentina T1 - Klimavariabilität und extreme hydro-meteorologische Ereignisse in den südlichen Zentralanden, NW Argentinien N2 - Extreme hydro-meteorological events, such as severe droughts or heavy rainstorms, constitute primary manifestations of climate variability and exert a critical impact on the natural environment and human society. This is particularly true for high-mountain areas, such as the eastern flank of the southern Central Andes of NW Argentina, a region impacted by deep convection processes that form the basis of extreme events, often resulting in floods, a variety of mass movements, and hillslope processes. This region is characterized by pronounced E-W gradients in topography, precipitation, and vegetation cover, spanning low to medium-elevation, humid and densely vegetated areas to high-elevation, arid and sparsely vegetated environments. This strong E-W gradient is mirrored by differences in the efficiency of surface processes, which mobilize and transport large amounts of sediment through the fluvial system, from the steep hillslopes to the intermontane basins and further to the foreland. In a highly sensitive high-mountain environment like this, even small changes in the spatiotemporal distribution, magnitude and rates of extreme events may strongly impact environmental conditions, anthropogenic activity, and the well-being of mountain communities and beyond. However, although the NW Argentine Andes comprise the catchments for the La Plata river that traverses one of the most populated and economically relevant areas of South America, there are only few detailed investigations of climate variability and extreme hydro-meteorological events. In this thesis, I focus on deciphering the spatiotemporal variability of rainfall and river discharge, with particular emphasis on extreme hydro-meteorological events in the subtropical southern Central Andes of NW Argentina during the past seven decades. I employ various methods to assess and quantify statistically significant trend patterns of rainfall and river discharge, integrating high-quality daily time series from gauging stations (40 rainfall and 8 river discharge stations) with gridded datasets (CPC-uni and TRMM 3B42 V7), for the period between 1940 and 2015. Evidence for a general intensification of the hydrological cycle at intermediate elevations (~ 0.5 – 3 km asl) at the eastern flank of the southern Central Andes is found both from rainfall and river-discharge time-series analysis during the period from 1940 to 2015. This intensification is associated with the increase of the annual total amount of rainfall and the mean annual discharge. However, most pronounced trends are found at high percentiles, i.e. extreme hydro-meteorological events, particularly during the wet season from December to February.An important outcome of my studies is the recognition of a rapid increase in the amount of river discharge during the period between 1971 and 1977, most likely linked to the 1976-77 global climate shift, which is associated with the North Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature variability. Interestingly, after this rapid increase, both rainfall and river discharge decreased at low and intermediate elevations along the eastern flank of the Andes. In contrast, during the same time interval, at high elevations, extensive areas on the arid Puna de Atacama plateau have recorded increasing annual rainfall totals. This has been associated with more intense extreme hydro-meteorological events from 1979 to 2014. This part of the study reveals that low-, intermediate, and high-elevation sectors in the Andes of NW Argentina respond differently to changing climate conditions. Possible forcing mechanisms of the pronounced hydro-meteorological variability observed in the study area are also investigated. For the period between 1940 and 2015, I analyzed modes of oscillation of river discharge from small to medium drainage basins (102 to 104 km2), located on the eastern flank of the orogen. First, I decomposed the relevant monthly time series using the Hilbert-Huang Transform, which is particularly appropriate for non-stationary time series that result from non-linear natural processes. I observed that in the study region discharge variability can be described by five quasi-periodic oscillatory modes on timescales varying from 1 to ~20 years. Secondly, I tested the link between river-discharge variations and large-scale climate modes of variability, using different climate indices, such as the BEST ENSO (Bivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Time-series) index. This analysis reveals that, although most of the variance on the annual timescale is associated with the South American Monsoon System, a relatively large part of river-discharge variability is linked to Pacific Ocean variability (PDO phases) at multi-decadal timescales (~20 years). To a lesser degree, river discharge variability is also linked to the Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) sea surface temperature anomaly at multi-annual timescales (~2-5 years). Taken together, these findings exemplify the high degree of sensitivity of high-mountain environments with respect to climatic variability and change. This is particularly true for the topographic transitions between the humid, low-moderate elevations and the semi-arid to arid highlands of the southern Central Andes. Even subtle changes in the hydro-meteorological regime of these areas of the mountain belt react with major impacts on erosional hillslope processes and generate mass movements that fundamentally impact the transport capacity of mountain streams. Despite more severe storms in these areas, the fluvial system is characterized by pronounced variability of the stream power on different timescales, leading to cycles of sediment aggradation, the loss of agriculturally used land and severe impacts on infrastructure. N2 - Extreme hydro-meteorologische Ereignisse, wie langanhaltende Dürren oder Starkregen, gelten als Haupterscheinungsform der Klimavariabilität und haben einen entscheidenden Einfluss auf Umwelt und Gesellschaft. Dies gilt im Besonderen für die großen Gebirgsregionen dieser Erde. In einer extrem sensiblen Hochgebirgsregion wie den NW argentinischen Anden haben selbst geringe Veränderungen in der Intensität solcher Extremereignisse, sowie deren Häufigkeit und räumliche Verteilung, nicht nur einen großen Einfluss auf die Landschaftsentwicklung; flussabwärtsliegende Gemeinden sind zudem wirtschaftlich als auch humanitär einem hohen Risiko ausgesetzt. Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich im Wesentlichen mit der räumlich-zeitlichen Verteilung von Niederschlags- und Abflussmengen über den Zeitraum der letzten sieben Jahrzente, mit besonderem Fokus auf extreme hydro-meteorologische Ereignisse der subtropischen Zentralanden NW-Argentiniens. Um räumliche und zeitliche statistisch signifikante Trends der Niederschlags- und Abflussmengen bestimmen und quantifizieren zu können, finden in dieser Arbeit verschiedene Methoden Anwendung, in denen hochaufgelöste Zeitreihen von Niederschlags- und Abflussmengenstationen mit diversen Rasterdatensätzen von 1940 bis 2015 kombiniert werden. Über den betrachteten Zeitraum hinweg lässt sich eine allgemeine Intensivierung des hydrologischen Kreislaufes auf mittleren Höhen (500 - 3.000 m ü. NN) belegen. Diese Intensivierung steht einerseits im Zusammenhang mit dem Ansteigen von Extremwetterereignissen, besonders während der Regenzeit von Dezember bis Februar. Der beobachtete Anstieg in der Intensität dieser Wetterlagen deutet auf einen Zusammenhang der schweren Regenstürme und der Verlandung der Abflussbecken in der untersuchten, intermontanen Region hin. Ein rapider Anstieg in der Abflussmenge in Flüssen um bis zu 40% ist für den Zeitraum zwischen 1971 und 1977 dokumentiert. Dieser steht höchstwahrscheinlich mit der globalen Klimaverschiebung von 1976-77 in Zusammenhang, welche wiederum durch die Variabilität der Oberflächentemperatur des Pazifischen Ozeans beeinflusst wird. Nach diesem starken Anstieg können jedoch abnehmende Trends in Niederschlags- wie auch Abflussmengen auf niedrigen und mittleren Höhen der Ostflanken der Anden beobachtet werden. Im Gegensatz dazu belegen ein Anstieg der jährlichen Gesamtniederschlagsmenge sowie der Magnitude von extremen hydro-meterologischen Ereignissen in hohen Höhenlagen der trockenen Puna de Atacama Plateaus, dass niedrige, mittlere und hohe Sektoren der NW argentinischen Anden unterschiedlich auf Änderungen des Klimas reagieren. Schlussendlich kann die in der Region beobachtete, stark ausgeprägte Variabilität in der Hydro-meteorologie über jährliche Zeiträume zum größten Teil mit dem Südamerikanischen Monsunsystem erklärt werden. Jedoch sind große Anteile in der Variabilität der Abflussmenge auch stark an die Pazifische Dekaden-Oszillation (PDO) in Zeiträumen über mehrereJahrzehnte (~20 Jahre) gekoppelt und zu einem geringeren Anteil auch an die Meeresoberflächentemperatur-Anomalie des tropischen Südatlantiks (TSA) über mehrjährige Zeiträume hinweg (~2-5 Jahre). Interessanterweise wurden nur weniger stark ausgeprägte Zusammenhänge zwischen der Abflussvariabilität und El Niño-Southern Oscillation in unserem Untersuchungsgebiet gefunden. KW - climate variability KW - extreme hydrometeorological events KW - Central Andes KW - Klimavariabilität KW - extreme hydro-meteorologische Ereignisse KW - Zentralanden Y1 - 2016 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-396815 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Aich, Valentin A1 - Liersch, Stefan A1 - Vetter, Tobias A1 - Andersson, Jafet C. M. A1 - Müller, Eva Nora A1 - Hattermann, Fred Fokko T1 - Climate or land use? BT - Attribution of changes in river flooding in the Sahel Zone N2 - This study intends to contribute to the ongoing discussion on whether land use and land cover changes (LULC) or climate trends have the major influence on the observed increase of flood magnitudes in the Sahel. A simulation-based approach is used for attributing the observed trends to the postulated drivers. For this purpose, the ecohydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) with a new, dynamic LULC module was set up for the Sahelian part of the Niger River until Niamey, including the main tributaries Sirba and Goroul. The model was driven with observed, reanalyzed climate and LULC data for the years 1950–2009. In order to quantify the shares of influence, one simulation was carried out with constant land cover as of 1950, and one including LULC. As quantitative measure, the gradients of the simulated trends were compared to the observed trend. The modeling studies showed that for the Sirba River only the simulation which included LULC was able to reproduce the observed trend. The simulation without LULC showed a positive trend for flood magnitudes, but underestimated the trend significantly. For the Goroul River and the local flood of the Niger River at Niamey, the simulations were only partly able to reproduce the observed trend. In conclusion, the new LULC module enabled some first quantitative insights into the relative influence of LULC and climatic changes. For the Sirba catchment, the results imply that LULC and climatic changes contribute in roughly equal shares to the observed increase in flooding. For the other parts of the subcatchment, the results are less clear but show, that climatic changes and LULC are drivers for the flood increase; however their shares cannot be quantified. Based on these modeling results, we argue for a two-pillar adaptation strategy to reduce current and future flood risk: Flood mitigation for reducing LULC-induced flood increase, and flood adaptation for a general reduction of flood vulnerability. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 345 KW - simulation-based attribution KW - Sahel KW - Niger River KW - climate variability KW - hydrological modeling KW - flood mitigation KW - flood adaptation Y1 - 2017 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-400115 ER -