TY  - JOUR
A1  - Klemm, Juliane
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
A1  - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna
T1  - Vegetation, climate and lake changes over the last 7000 years at the boreal treeline in north-central Siberia
JF  - Quaternary science reviews : the international multidisciplinary research and review journal
KW  - Tundra-taiga ecotone
KW  - Larix gmelinii
KW  - Palynology
KW  - Sediment geochemistry
KW  - Mean July temperature
KW  - Ordination
KW  - WA-PLS
KW  - Procrustes rotation
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2015.08.015
SN  - 0277-3791
VL  - 147
SP  - 422
EP  - 434
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Oxford
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kruse, Stefan
A1  - Wieczorek, Mareike
A1  - Jeltsch, Florian
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1  - Treeline dynamics in Siberia under changing climates as inferred from an individual-based model for Larix
JF  - Ecological modelling : international journal on ecological modelling and engineering and systems ecolog
KW  - Forest change
KW  - IBM
KW  - ODD model description
KW  - Larix gmelinii
KW  - Permafrost ecosystem
KW  - Time-lag effects
Y1  - 2016
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.08.003
SN  - 0304-3800
SN  - 1872-7026
VL  - 338
SP  - 101
EP  - 121
PB  - Elsevier
CY  - Amsterdam
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Kruse, Stefan
A1  - Herzschuh, Ulrike
T1  - Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years
JF  - eLife
N2  - The biodiversity of tundra areas in northern high latitudes is threatened by invasion of forests under global warming. However, poorly understood nonlinear responses of the treeline ecotone mean the timing and extent of tundra losses are unclear, but policymakers need such information to optimize conservation efforts. Our individual-based model LAVESI, developed for the Siberian tundra-taiga ecotone, can help improve our understanding. Consequently, we simulated treeline migration trajectories until the end of the millennium, causing a loss of tundra area when advancing north. Our simulations reveal that the treeline follows climate warming with a severe, century-long time lag, which is overcompensated by infilling of stands in the long run even when temperatures cool again. Our simulations reveal that only under ambitious mitigation strategies (relative concentration pathway 2.6) will ~30% of original tundra areas remain in the north but separated into two disjunct refugia.
KW  - Larix gmelinii
KW  - Larix cajanderi
KW  - nonlinear response
KW  - treeline ecotone
KW  - tundra
KW  - Ecology
KW  - Short Report
Y1  - 2022
U6  - https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.75163
SN  - 2050-084X
VL  - 11
PB  - eLife Sciences Publications
CY  - Cambridge
ER  -