TY  - JOUR
A1  - Korup, Oliver
T1  - Bayesian geomorphology
JF  - Earth surface processes and landforms : the journal of the British Geomorphological Research Group
N2  - The rapidly growing amount and diversity of data are confronting us more than ever with the need to make informed predictions under uncertainty. The adverse impacts of climate change and natural hazards also motivate our search for reliable predictions. The range of statistical techniques that geomorphologists use to tackle this challenge has been growing, but rarely involves Bayesian methods. Instead, many geomorphic models rely on estimated averages that largely miss out on the variability of form and process. Yet seemingly fixed estimates of channel heads, sediment rating curves or glacier equilibrium lines, for example, are all prone to uncertainties. Neighbouring scientific disciplines such as physics, hydrology or ecology have readily embraced Bayesian methods to fully capture and better explain such uncertainties, as the necessary computational tools have advanced greatly. The aim of this article is to introduce the Bayesian toolkit to scientists concerned with Earth surface processes and landforms, and to show how geomorphic models might benefit from probabilistic concepts. I briefly review the use of Bayesian reasoning in geomorphology, and outline the corresponding variants of regression and classification in several worked examples.
KW  - Bayes' rule
KW  - probability
KW  - uncertainty
KW  - prediction
Y1  - 2020
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1002/esp.4995
SN  - 0197-9337
SN  - 1096-9837
VL  - 46
IS  - 1
SP  - 151
EP  - 172
PB  - Wiley
CY  - Hoboken
ER  - 
TY  - JOUR
A1  - Chung, Oliver
A1  - Vongpatanasin, Wanpen
A1  - Bonaventura, Klaus
A1  - Lotan, Yair
A1  - Sohns, Christian
A1  - Haverkamp, Wilhelm
A1  - Dorenkamp, Marc
T1  - Potential cost-effectiveness of therapeutic drug monitoring in patients with resistant hypertension
JF  - Journal of hypertension
N2  - Background: Nonadherence to drug therapy poses a significant problem in the treatment of patients with presumed resistant hypertension. It has been shown that therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) is a useful tool for detecting nonadherence and identifying barriers to treatment adherence, leading to effective blood pressure (BP) control. However, the cost-effectiveness of TDM in the management of resistant hypertension has not been investigated.
 Results: In the age group of 60-year olds, TDM gained 1.07 QALYs in men and 0.97 QALYs in women at additional costs of (sic)3854 and (sic)3922, respectively. Given a willingness-to-pay threshold of (sic)35 000 per QALY gained, the probability of TDM being cost-effective was 95% or more in all age groups from 30 to 90 years. Results were influenced mostly by the frequency of TDM testing, the rate of nonresponders to TDM, and the magnitude of effect of TDM on BP.
 Conclusion: Therapeutic drug monitoring presents a potential cost-effective healthcare intervention in patients diagnosed with resistant hypertension. Importantly, this finding is valid for a wide range of patients, independent of sex and age.
KW  - cardiovascular diseases
KW  - cost and cost analysis
KW  - cost-benefit analysis
KW  - drug monitoring
KW  - hypertension
KW  - medication adherence
KW  - probability
KW  - risk assessment
Y1  - 2014
U6  - https://doi.org/10.1097/HJH.0000000000000346
SN  - 0263-6352
SN  - 1473-5598
VL  - 32
IS  - 12
SP  - 2411
EP  - 2421
PB  - Lippincott Williams & Wilkins
CY  - Philadelphia
ER  -