TY - JOUR A1 - Voss, Katalyn A. A1 - Bookhagen, Bodo A1 - Sachse, Dirk A1 - Chadwick, Oliver A. T1 - Variation of deuterium excess in surface waters across a 5000-m elevation gradient in eastern Nepal JF - Journal of hydrology N2 - The strong elevation gradient of the Himalaya allows for investigation of altitude and orographic impacts on surface water delta O-18 and delta D stable isotope values. This study differentiates the time- and altitude-variable contributions of source waters to the Arun River in eastern Nepal. It provides isotope data along a 5000-m gradient collected from tributaries as well as groundwater, snow, and glacial-sourced surface waters and time-series data from April to October 2016. We find nonlinear trends in delta O-18 and delta D lapse rates with high-elevation lapse rates (4000-6000 masl) 5-7 times more negative than low-elevation lapse rates (1000-3000 masl). A distinct seasonal signal in delta O-18 and delta D lapse rates indicates time-variable source-water contributions from glacial and snow meltwater as well as precipitation transitions between the Indian Summer Monsoon and Winter Westerly Disturbances. Deuterium excess correlates with the extent of snowpack and tracks melt events during the Indian Summer Monsoon season. Our analysis identifies the influence of snow and glacial melt waters on river composition during low-flow conditions before the monsoon (April/May 2016) followed by a 5-week transition to the Indian Summer Monsoon-sourced rainfall around mid-June 2016. In the post-monsoon season, we find continued influence from glacial melt waters as well as ISM-sourced groundwater. KW - stable isotopes KW - Himalaya KW - glacier KW - snow KW - precipitation KW - seasonality Y1 - 2020 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.124802 SN - 0022-1694 SN - 1879-2707 VL - 586 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schmidt, Silke Regina A1 - Gerten, Dieter A1 - Hintze, Thomas A1 - Lischeid, Gunnar A1 - Livingstone, David M. A1 - Adrian, Rita T1 - Temporal and spatial scales of water temperature variability as an indicator for mixing in a polymictic lake JF - Inland waters : journal of the International Society of Limnology N2 - We applied coarse spectral analysis to more than 2 decades of daily near-surface water temperature (WT) measurements from Muggelsee, a shallow polymictic lake in Germany, to systematically characterize patterns in WT variability from daily to yearly temporal scales. Comparison of WT with local air temperature indicates that the WT variability patterns are likely attributable to both meteorological forcing and internal lake dynamics. We identified seasonal patterns of WT variability and showed that WT variability increases with increasing Schmidt stability, decreasing Lake number and decreasing ice cover duration, and is higher near the shore than in open water. We introduced the slope of WT spectra as an indicator for the degree of lake mixing to help explain the identified temporal and spatial scales of WT variability. The explanatory power of this indicator in other lakes with different mixing regimes remains to be established. KW - Lake number KW - polymictic lakes KW - Schmidt stability KW - seasonality KW - spectral analysis KW - variability Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1080/20442041.2018.1429067 SN - 2044-2041 SN - 2044-205X VL - 8 IS - 1 SP - 82 EP - 95 PB - Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group CY - Abingdon ER - TY - GEN A1 - Liesenjohann, Thilo A1 - Liesenjohann, Monique A1 - Trebaticka, Lenka A1 - Sundell, Janne A1 - Haapakoski, Marko A1 - Ylönen, Hannu A1 - Eccard, Jana T1 - State-dependent foraging BT - lactating voles adjust their foraging behavior according to the presence of a potential nest predator and season T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Parental care often produces a trade-off between meeting nutritional demands of offspring and the duties of offspring protection, especially in altricial species. Parents have to leave their young unattended for foraging trips, during which nestlings are exposed to predators. We investigated how rodent mothers of altricial young respond to risk of nest predation in their foraging decisions. We studied foraging behavior of lactating bank voles (Myodes glareolus) exposed to a nest predator, the common shrew (Sorex araneus). We conducted the experiment in summer (high resource provisioning for both species) and autumn (less food available) in 12 replicates with fully crossed factors “shrew presence” and “season.” We monitored use of feeding stations near and far from the nest as measurement of foraging activity and strategic foraging behavior. Vole mothers adapted their strategies to shrew presence and optimized their foraging behavior according to seasonal constraints, resulting in an interaction of treatment and season. In summer, shrew presence reduced food intake from feeding stations, while it enhanced intake in autumn. Shrew presence decreased the number of visited feeding stations in autumn and concentrated mother’s foraging efforts to fewer stations. Independent of shrew presence or season, mothers foraged more in patches further away from the nest than near the nest. Results indicate that females are not investing in nest guarding but try to avoid the accumulation of olfactory cues near the nest leading a predator to the young. Additionally, our study shows how foraging strategies and nest attendance are influenced by seasonal food provision. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 857 KW - Myodes glareolus KW - optimal foraging KW - Sorex araneus KW - nest protection KW - seasonality KW - interference Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-432878 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 857 SP - 747 EP - 754 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Scherer, Cedric A1 - Radchuk, Viktoriia A1 - Staubach, Christoph A1 - Mueller, Sophie A1 - Blaum, Niels A1 - Thulke, Hans-Hermann A1 - Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie T1 - Seasonal host life-history processes fuel disease dynamics at different spatial scales JF - Journal of animal ecology : a journal of the British Ecological Society N2 - Understanding the drivers underlying disease dynamics is still a major challenge in disease ecology, especially in the case of long-term disease persistence. Even though there is a strong consensus that density-dependent factors play an important role for the spread of diseases, the main drivers are still discussed and, more importantly, might differ between invasion and persistence periods. Here, we analysed long-term outbreak data of classical swine fever, an important disease in both wild boar and livestock, prevalent in the wild boar population from 1993 to 2000 in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Germany. We report outbreak characteristics and results from generalized linear mixed models to reveal what factors affected infection risk on both the landscape and the individual level. Spatiotemporal outbreak dynamics showed an initial wave-like spread with high incidence during the invasion period followed by a drop of incidence and an increase in seroprevalence during the persistence period. Velocity of spread increased with time during the first year of outbreak and decreased linearly afterwards, being on average 7.6 km per quarter. Landscape- and individual-level analyses of infection risk indicate contrasting seasonal patterns. During the persistence period, infection risk on the landscape level was highest during autumn and winter seasons, probably related to spatial behaviour such as increased long-distance movements and contacts induced by rutting and escaping movements. In contrast, individual-level infection risk peaked in spring, probably related to the concurrent birth season leading to higher densities, and was significantly higher in piglets than in reproductive animals. Our findings highlight that it is important to investigate both individual- and landscape-level patterns of infection risk to understand long-term persistence of wildlife diseases and to guide respective management actions. Furthermore, we highlight that exploring different temporal aggregation of the data helps to reveal important seasonal patterns, which might be masked otherwise. KW - classical swine fever KW - disease invasion KW - infection risk KW - pathogen persistence KW - seasonality KW - Sus scrofa KW - wild boar KW - wildlife disease Y1 - 2019 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13070 SN - 0021-8790 SN - 1365-2656 VL - 88 IS - 11 SP - 1812 EP - 1824 PB - Wiley CY - Hoboken ER - TY - THES A1 - Braun, Tobias T1 - Recurrences in past climates T1 - Rekurrenzen in vergangenen Klimaperioden BT - novel concepts & tools for the study of Palaeoseasonality and beyond BT - neue Konzepte und Methoden zur Analyse von Paläosaisonalität und darüber hinaus N2 - Our ability to predict the state of a system relies on its tendency to recur to states it has visited before. Recurrence also pervades common intuitions about the systems we are most familiar with: daily routines, social rituals and the return of the seasons are just a few relatable examples. To this end, recurrence plots (RP) provide a systematic framework to quantify the recurrence of states. Despite their conceptual simplicity, they are a versatile tool in the study of observational data. The global climate is a complex system for which an understanding based on observational data is not only of academical relevance, but vital for the predurance of human societies within the planetary boundaries. Contextualizing current global climate change, however, requires observational data far beyond the instrumental period. The palaeoclimate record offers a valuable archive of proxy data but demands methodological approaches that adequately address its complexities. In this regard, the following dissertation aims at devising novel and further developing existing methods in the framework of recurrence analysis (RA). The proposed research questions focus on using RA to capture scale-dependent properties in nonlinear time series and tailoring recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) to characterize seasonal variability in palaeoclimate records (‘Palaeoseasonality’). In the first part of this thesis, we focus on the methodological development of novel approaches in RA. The predictability of nonlinear (palaeo)climate time series is limited by abrupt transitions between regimes that exhibit entirely different dynamical complexity (e.g. crossing of ‘tipping points’). These possibly depend on characteristic time scales. RPs are well-established for detecting transitions and capture scale-dependencies, yet few approaches have combined both aspects. We apply existing concepts from the study of self-similar textures to RPs to detect abrupt transitions, considering the most relevant time scales. This combination of methods further results in the definition of a novel recurrence based nonlinear dependence measure. Quantifying lagged interactions between multiple variables is a common problem, especially in the characterization of high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed ‘recurrence flow’ measure of nonlinear dependence offers an elegant way to characterize such couplings. For spatially extended complex systems, the coupled dynamics of local variables result in the emergence of spatial patterns. These patterns tend to recur in time. Based on this observation, we propose a novel method that entails dynamically distinct regimes of atmospheric circulation based on their recurrent spatial patterns. Bridging the two parts of this dissertation, we next turn to methodological advances of RA for the study of Palaeoseasonality. Observational series of palaeoclimate ‘proxy’ records involve inherent limitations, such as irregular temporal sampling. We reveal biases in the RQA of time series with a non-stationary sampling rate and propose a correction scheme. In the second part of this thesis, we proceed with applications in Palaeoseasonality. A review of common and promising time series analysis methods shows that numerous valuable tools exist, but their sound application requires adaptions to archive-specific limitations and consolidating transdisciplinary knowledge. Next, we study stalagmite proxy records from the Central Pacific as sensitive recorders of mid-Holocene El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics. The records’ remarkably high temporal resolution allows to draw links between ENSO and seasonal dynamics, quantified by RA. The final study presented here examines how seasonal predictability could play a role for the stability of agricultural societies. The Classic Maya underwent a period of sociopolitical disintegration that has been linked to drought events. Based on seasonally resolved stable isotope records from Yok Balum cave in Belize, we propose a measure of seasonal predictability. It unveils the potential role declining seasonal predictability could have played in destabilizing agricultural and sociopolitical systems of Classic Maya populations. The methodological approaches and applications presented in this work reveal multiple exciting future research avenues, both for RA and the study of Palaeoseasonality. N2 - Unsere Fähigkeit, den Zustand eines Systems vorherzusagen, hängt grundlegend von der Tendenz des Systems ab, zu früheren Zuständen zurückzukehren. Solche "Rekurrenzen" sind sogar Bestandteil unserer Intuition und alltäglichen Erfahrungswelt: regelmäßige Routinen, soziale Zusammentreffen and die Wiederkehr der Jahreszeiten sind hierfür nur vereinzelte Beispiele. Rekurrenzplots (RPs) stellen uns in diesem Kontext eine systematische Methode zur Verfügung, um die Wiederkehreigenschaften von Systemzuständen quantitativ zu untersuchen. Obwohl RPs konzeptionell vergleichsweise simpel sind, stellen sie eine vielseitige Methode zur Analyse von gemessenen Beobachtungsdaten dar. Das globale Klimasystem ist ein komplexes System, bei dem ein datenbasiertes Verständnis nicht lediglich von rein akademischen Wert ist – es ist viel mehr relevant für das Fortbestehen der Gesellschaft innerhalb der natürlichen planetaren Grenzen. Um die heute beobachteten Klimaveränderungen allerdings in einen langfristigen Kontext einzuordnen, benötigen wir empirische Daten, die weit über die Periode hinaus gehen, für die instrumentelle Daten verfügbar sind. Paläoklimatologische Datenreihen repräsentieren hier ein wertvolles Archiv, dessen Auswertung jedoch Analysemethoden erfordert, die an die Komplexitäten von paläoklimatologischen ‘Proxydaten’ angepasst sind. Um einen wissenschaftlichen Beitrag zu dieser Problemstellung zu leisten, befasst sich diese Doktorarbeit mit der Konzeptionierung neuer Methoden und der problemstellungsbezogenen Anpassung bewährter Methoden in der Rekurrenzanalyse (RA). Die hier formulierten zentralen Forschungsfragen konzentrieren sich auf den Nachweis zeitskalen-abhängiger Eigenschaften in nichtlinearen Zeitreihen und, insbesondere, der Anpassung von quantitativen Maßen in der RA, um paläosaisonale Proxydaten zu charakterisieren (‘Paläosaisonalität’). Im ersten Teil dieser Arbeit liegt der Schwerpunkt auf der Entwicklung neuer methodischer Ansätze in der RA. Die Vorhersagbarkeit nichtlinearer (paläo)klimatologischer Zeitreihen ist durch abrupte Übergänge zwischen dynamisch grundlegend verschiedenen Zuständen erschwert (so zum Beispiel das Übertreten sogenannter ‘Kipppunkte’). Solche Zustandsübergänge zeigen oft charakteristische Zeitskalen-Abhängigkeiten. RPs haben sich als Methode zum Nachweis von Zustandsübergängen bewährt und sind darüber hinaus geeignet, Skalenabhängigkeiten zu identifizieren. Dennoch wurden beide Aspekte bislang selten methodisch zusammengeführt. Wir kombinieren hier bestehende Konzepte aus der Analyse selbstähnlicher Strukturen und RPs, um abrupte Zustandsübergänge unter Einbezug der relevantesten Zeitskalen zu identifizieren. Diese Kombination von Konzepten führt uns ferner dazu, ein neues rekurrenzbasiertes, nichtlineares Abhängigkeitsmaß einzuführen. Die quantitative Untersuchung zeitversetzter Abhängigkeiten zwischen zahlreichen Variablen ist ein zentrales Problem, das insbesondere in der Analyse hochdimensionaler komplexer Systeme auftritt. Das hier definierte ‘Rekurrenzfluß’-Abhängigkeitsmaß ermöglicht es auf elegante Weise, derartige Abhängigkeiten zu charakterisieren. Bei räumlich ausgedehnten komplexen Systemen führen Interaktionen zwischen lokalen Variablen zu der Entstehung räumlicher Muster. Diese räumlichen Muster zeigen zeitliche Rekurrenzen. In einer auf dieser Beobachtung aufbauenden Publikation stellen wir eine neue Methode vor, mit deren Hilfe differenzierbare, makroskopische Zustände untersucht werden können, die zu zentralen, zeitlich wiederkehrenden räumlichen Mustern korrespondieren. Folgend leiten wir über zum zweiten Teil dieser Arbeit, indem wir uns Anpassungen von Methoden zur Untersuchung von Paläosaisonalität zuwenden. Messreihen paläoklimatologischer Proxydaten geben uns nur indirekt Informationen über die ihnen zugrunde liegenden Klimavariablen und weisen inhärente Limitationen auf, wie zum Beispiel unregelmäßige Zeitabstände zwischen Datenpunkten. Wir zeigen statistische Verzerrungseffekte auf, die in der quantitativen RA auftreten, wenn Signale mit nichtstationärer Abtastrate untersucht werden. Eine Methode zur Korrektur wird vorgestellt und anhand von Messdaten validiert. Der zweite Teil dieser Dissertation befasst sich mit angewandten Analysen von paläosaisonalen Zeitreihen. Eine Literaturauswertung verbreiteter und potentiell vielversprechender Zeitreihenanalysemethoden zeigt auf, dass es eine Vielzahl solcher Methoden gibt, deren adäquate Anwendung aber Anpassungen an Klimaarchiv-spezifische Grenzen und Probleme sowie eine Zusammenführung interdisziplinärer Fähigkeiten erfordert. Daraufhin untersuchen wir an einem Stalagmiten gemessene Proxydaten aus der zentralen Pazifikregion als ein natürliches Archiv für potentielle Veränderungen der El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) währen des mittleren Holozäns. Die bemerkenswert hohe zeitliche Auflösung der Proxy-Zeitreihen erlaubt es uns, Verbindungen zwischen der Ausprägung der ENSO und saisonalen Zyklen herzustellen, wobei wir erneut Gebrauch von der RA machen. Die letzte Publikation in dieser Arbeit untersucht, in wie fern die Vorhersagbarkeit saisonaler Veränderungen eine Rolle für die Stabilität von Gesellschaften spielen könnte, deren Nahrungsversorgung auf Landwirtschaft beruht. Die klassische Maya-Zivilisation erlitt zwischen 750-950 CE eine drastische Fragmentierung urbaner Zentren, die mit regionalen Dürren in Verbindung gebracht werden. Auf Grundlage von saisonal-aufgelösten Proxydaten aus der Yok Balum Höhle in Belize, definieren wir ein quantitatives Maß für saisonale Vorhersagbarkeit. Dies erlaubt Schlussfolgerungen über die potentielle Rolle, die ein Verlust saisonaler Vorhersagbarkeit für die sich destablisierenden agrarwirtschaftlichen und soziopolitischen Systeme der Maya gehabt haben könnte. Die methodischen Ansätze und Anwendungen in dieser Arbeit zeigen vielseitige, spannende Forschungsfragen für zukünftige Untersuchungen in der RA und Paläosaisonalität auf. KW - recurrence analysis KW - palaeoclimate KW - seasonality KW - nonlinear time series analysis KW - self-similarity KW - regime shifts KW - climate impact research KW - Klimafolgenforschung KW - nichtlineare Zeitreihenanalyse KW - Paläoklima KW - Rekurrenzanalyse KW - abrupte Übergänge KW - Selbstähnlichkeit Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-586900 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Rottler, Erwin A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Hydro Explorer BT - an interactive web app to investigate changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality all over the world JF - River research and applications N2 - Climatic changes and anthropogenic modifications of the river basin or river network have the potential to fundamentally alter river runoff. In the framework of this study, we aim to analyze and present historic changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality observed at river gauges all over the world. In this regard, we develop the Hydro Explorer, an interactive web app, which enables the investigation of >7,000 daily resolution discharge time series from the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The interactive nature of the developed web app allows for a quick comparison of gauges, regions, methods, and time frames. We illustrate the available analytical tools by investigating changes in runoff timing and runoff seasonality in the Rhine River Basin. Since we provide the source code of the application, existing analytical approaches can be modified, new methods added, and the tool framework can be re-used to visualize other data sets. KW - global runoff database KW - interactive web app KW - R Shiny KW - runoff KW - seasonality KW - runoff timing Y1 - 2021 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/rra.3772 SN - 1535-1459 SN - 1535-1467 VL - 37 IS - 4 SP - 544 EP - 554 PB - Wiley CY - New York ER - TY - THES A1 - Petrow, Theresia T1 - Floods in Germany : analyses of trends, seasonality and circulation patterns T1 - Hochwasser in Deutschland : Untersuchungen zu Trends, Saisonalität und Großwetterlagen N2 - Flood hazard estimations are conducted with a variety of methods. These include flood frequency analysis (FFA), hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, probable maximum discharges as well as climate scenarios. However, most of these methods assume stationarity of the used time series, i.e., the series must not exhibit trends. Against the background of climate change and proven significant trends in atmospheric circulation patterns, it is questionable whether these changes are also reflected in the discharge data. The aim of this PhD thesis is therefore to clarify, in a spatially-explicit manner, whether the available discharge data derived from selected German catchments exhibit trends. Concerning the flood hazard, the suitability of the currently used stationary FFA approaches is evaluated for the discharge data. Moreover, dynamics in atmospheric circulation patterns are studied and the link between trends in these patterns and discharges is investigated. To tackle this research topic, a number of different analyses are conducted. The first part of the PhD thesis comprises the study and trend test of 145 discharge series from catchments, which cover most of Germany for the period 1951–2002. The seasonality and trend pattern of eight flood indicators, such as maximum series and peak-over-threshold series, are analyzed in a spatially-explicit manner. Analyses are performed on different spatial scales: at the local scale, through gauge-specific analyses, and on the catchment-wide and basin scales. Besides the analysis of discharge series, data on atmospheric circulation patterns (CP) are an important source of information, upon which conclusions about the flood hazard can be drawn. The analyses of these circulation patterns (after Hess und Brezowsky) and the study of the link to peak discharges form the second part of the thesis. For this, daily data on the dominant CP across Europe are studied; these are represented by different indicators, which are tested for trend. Moreover, analyses are performed to extract flood triggering circulation patterns and to estimate the flood potential of CPs. Correlations between discharge series and CP indicators are calculated to assess a possible link between them. For this research topic, data from 122 meso-scale catchments in the period 1951–2002 are used. In a third part, the Mulde catchment, a mesoscale sub-catchment of the Elbe basin, is studied in more detail. Fifteen discharge series of different lengths in the period 1910–2002 are available for the seasonally differentiated analysis of the flood potential of CPs and flood influencing landscape parameters. For trend tests of discharge and CP data, different methods are used. The Mann-Kendall test is applied with a significance level of 10%, ensuring statistically sound results. Besides the test of the entire series for trend, multiple time-varying trend tests are performed with the help of a resampling approach in order to better differentiate short-term fluctuations from long-lasting trends. Calculations of the field significance complement the flood hazard assessment for the studied regions. The present thesis shows that the flood hazard is indeed significantly increasing for selected regions in Germany during the winter season. Especially affected are the middle mountain ranges in Central Germany. This increase of the flood hazard is attributed to a longer persistence of selected CPs during winter. Increasing trends in summer floods are found in the Rhine and Danube catchments, decreasing trends in the Elbe and Weser catchments. Finally, a significant trend towards a reduced diversity of CPs is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. The detailed study of the Mulde catchment reveals a flood regime with frequent low winter floods and fewer summer floods, which bear, however, the potential of becoming extreme. Based on the results, the use of instationary approaches for flood hazard estimation is recommended in order to account for the detected trends in many of the series. Through this methodology it is possible to directly consider temporal changes in flood series, which in turn reduces the possibility of large under- or overestimations of the extreme discharges, respectively. N2 - Hochwasserabschätzungen werden mit Hilfe einer Vielzahl von Methoden ermittelt. Zu diesen zählen Hochwasserhäufigkeitsanalysen, die hydrologische und hydraulische Modellierung, Abschätzungen zu maximal möglichen Abflüssen wie auch Langzeitstudien und Klimaszenarien. Den meisten Methoden ist jedoch gemein, dass sie stationäre Bedingungen der beobachteten Abflussdaten annehmen. Das heißt, in den genutzten Zeitreihen dürfen keine Trends vorliegen. Vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels und nachgewiesener Trends in atmosphärischen Zirkulationsmustern, stellt sich jedoch die Frage, ob sich diese Veränderungen nicht auch in den Abflussdaten widerspiegeln. Ziel der Dissertation ist daher die Überprüfung der Annahme von Trendfreiheit in Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen, um zu klären, ob die aktuell genutzten stationären Verfahren zur Hochwasserbemessung für die vorhandenen Daten in Deutschland geeignet sind. Zu prüfen ist des Weiteren, inwiefern regional und saisonal eine Verschärfung bzw. Abschwächung der Hochwassergefahr beobachtet werden kann und ob eindeutige Korrelationen zwischen Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen bestehen. Den ersten Schwerpunkt der vorliegenden Dissertation bildet die deutschlandweite Analyse von 145 Abflusszeitreihen für den Zeitraum 1951–2002. Acht Hochwasserindikatoren, die verschiedene Aspekte der Hochwasser-Charakteristik beleuchten, werden analysiert und bezüglich möglicher Trends getestet. Um saisonalen Unterschieden in der Hochwassercharakteristik der einzelnen Regionen gerecht zu werden, werden neben jährlichen auch saisonale Reihen untersucht. Die Analyse von Maximalreihen wird durch Schwellenwertanalysen ergänzt, die die Hochwasserdynamik bzgl. Frequenz und Magnitude detaillierter erfassen. Die Daten werden auf verschiedenen Skalen untersucht: sowohl für jeden einzelnen Pegel wie auch für ganze Regionen und Einzugsgebiete. Nicht nur die Analyse der Abflussdaten bietet die Möglichkeit, Bewertungen für die zukünftige Hochwasserabschätzung abzuleiten. Auch Großwetterlagen bilden eine bedeutende Informationsquelle über die Hochwassergefahr, da in der Regel nur ausgewählte Zirkulationsmuster die Entstehung von Hochwasser begünstigen. Die saisonal differenzierte Untersuchung der Großwetterlagen und die Prüfung einer Korrelation zu den Abflüssen an 122 mesoskaligen Einzugsgebieten bilden deshalb den zweiten Schwerpunkt der Arbeit. Hierzu werden tägliche Daten der über Europa dominierenden Großwetterlage (nach Hess und Brezowsky) mit Hilfe verschiedener Indikatoren untersucht. Analysen zum Hochwasserpotential der einzelnen Wetterlagen und weiterer Einflussfaktoren werden für das mesoskalige Einzugsgebiet der Mulde in einer separaten Studie durchgeführt. Für diese Detail-Studie stehen 15 Abflusszeitreihen verschiedener Länge im Zeitraum 1909–2002 zur Verfügung. Um die Daten von Abflüssen und Großwetterlagen bezüglich vorhandener Trends zu testen, werden verschiedene Methoden genutzt. Der Mann-Kendall Test wird mit einem Signifikanzniveau von 10% (zweiseitiger Test) angewendet, was statistisch sichere Bewertungen ermöglicht. Neben der Prüfung der gesamten Datenreihe werden multiple zeitlich-variable Trendanalysen mit Hilfe eines Resampling-Ansatzes durchgeführt. Darüber hinaus werden räumlich differenzierte Analysen durchgeführt, um die saisonale Hochwassercharakteristik einzelner Regionen besser zu verstehen. Diese werden durch Tests zur Feldsignifikanz der Trends ergänzt. Mit der vorliegenden Arbeit kann gezeigt werden, dass die Hochwassergefahr für einzelne Regionen im Winterhalbjahr signifikant steigt. Davon sind insbesondere Gebiete in Mitteldeutschland betroffen. Die Verschärfung der Hochwassergefahr durch eine längere Persistenz ausgewählter Großwetterlagen konnte ebenfalls für das Winterhalbjahr nachgewiesen werden. Sommerhochwasser zeigen zwar ebenfalls steigende, aber auch fallende Trends, die räumlich geclustert sind. Im Elbe- und Weser-Einzugsgebiet sinken die Abflüsse signifikant, im Donau- und Rheineinzugsgebiet steigen sie nachweisbar. Darüber hinaus ist eine signifikante Abnahme der Anzahl verschiedener Großwetterlagen sowohl im Sommer als auch im Winter zu verzeichnen. Bzgl. der Studie zum Mulde-Einzugsgebiet konnte ein zweigeteiltes Hochwasserregime nachgewiesen werden. In den Wintermonaten treten häufig kleine Hochwasser auf, die auch die Mehrheit der jährlichen Maximalwerte bilden. Sommerhochwasser sind seltener, können aber extreme Ausmaße annehmen. Ein Vergleich der geschätzten Jährlichkeiten mit verschiedenen Zeitreihen zeigt die Notwendigkeit der Berücksichtigung saisonaler Aspekte für die Bemessung von Hochwassern. Aufgrund der Ergebnisse müssen die bisher genutzten stationären Verfahren als nicht mehr geeignet bewertet werden. Es wird daher die Nutzung instationärer Verfahren zur Abschätzung von Extremhochwasser und der damit verbundenen Bemessung von Schutzmaßnahmen empfohlen, um den teilweise vorliegenden Trends in den Daten Rechnung zu tragen. Durch diesen Ansatz ist es möglich, zeitlich dynamische Veränderungen im Hochwassergeschehen stärker zu berücksichtigen. Darüber hinaus sollten saisonale Aspekte des Einzugsgebietes Eingang in die Gefahrenabschätzung finden. KW - Hochwasser KW - Deutschland KW - Saisonalität KW - Großwetterlage KW - Trends KW - floods KW - Germany KW - trends KW - circulation patterns KW - seasonality Y1 - 2009 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-37392 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Weithoff, Guntram A1 - Rocha, Marcia R. A1 - Gaedke, Ursula T1 - Comparing seasonal dynamics of functional and taxonomic diversity reveals the driving forces underlying phytoplankton community structure JF - Freshwater biology N2 - In most biodiversity studies, taxonomic diversity is the measure for the multiplicity of species and is often considered to represent functional diversity. However, trends in taxonomic diversity and functional diversity may differ, for example, when many functionally similar but taxonomically different species co-occur in a community. The differences between these diversity measures are of particular interest in diversity research for understanding diversity patterns and their underlying mechanisms. We analysed a temporally highly resolved 20-year time series of lake phytoplankton to determine whether taxonomic diversity and functional diversity exhibit similar or contrasting seasonal patterns. We also calculated the functional mean of the community in n-dimensional trait space for each sampling day to gain further insights into the seasonal dynamics of the functional properties of the community. We found an overall weak positive relationship between taxonomic diversity and functional diversity with a distinct seasonal pattern. The two diversity measures showed synchronous behaviour from early spring to mid-summer and a more complex and diverging relationship from autumn to late winter. The functional mean of the community exhibited a recurrent annual pattern with the most prominent changes before and after the clear-water phase. From late autumn to winter, the functional mean of the community and functional diversity were relatively constant while taxonomic diversity declined, suggesting competitive exclusion during this period. A further decline in taxonomic diversity concomitant with increasing functional diversity in late winter to early spring is seen as a result of niche diversification together with competitive exclusion. Under these conditions, several different sets of traits are suitable to thrive, but within one set of functional traits only one, or very few, morphotypes can persist. Taxonomic diversity alone is a weak descriptor of trait diversity in phytoplankton. However, the combined analysis of taxonomic diversity and functional diversity, along with the functional mean of the community, allows for deeper insights into temporal patterns of community assembly and niche diversification. KW - algae KW - biodiversity KW - functional traits KW - seasonality KW - time series Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12527 SN - 0046-5070 SN - 1365-2427 VL - 60 IS - 4 SP - 758 EP - 767 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - GEN A1 - Eccard, Jana A1 - Fey, Karen A1 - Caspers, Barbara A. A1 - Ylönen, Hannu T1 - Breeding state and season affect interspecific interaction types BT - indirect resource competition and direct interference T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Indirect resource competition and interference are widely occurring mechanisms of interspecific interactions. We have studied the seasonal expression of these two interaction types within a two-species, boreal small mammal system. Seasons differ by resource availability, individual breeding state and intraspecific social system. Live-trapping methods were used to monitor space use and reproduction in 14 experimental populations of bank voles Myodes glareolus in large outdoor enclosures with and without a dominant competitor, the field vole Microtus agrestis. We further compared vole behaviour using staged dyadic encounters in neutral arenas in both seasons. Survival of the non-breeding overwintering bank voles was not affected by competition. In the spring, the numbers of male bank voles, but not of females, were reduced significantly in the competition populations. Bank vole home ranges expanded with vole density in the presence of competitors, indicating food limitation. A comparison of behaviour between seasons based on an analysis of similarity revealed an avoidance of costly aggression against opponents, independent of species. Interactions were more aggressive during the summer than during the winter, and heterospecific encounters were more aggressive than conspecific encounters. Based on these results, we suggest that interaction types and their respective mechanisms are not either–or categories and may change over the seasons. During the winter, energy constraints and thermoregulatory needs decrease direct aggression, but food constraints increase indirect resource competition. Direct interference appears in the summer, probably triggered by each individual’s reproductive and hormonal state and the defence of offspring against conspecific and heterospecific intruders. Both interaction forms overlap in the spring, possibly contributing to spring declines in the numbers of subordinate species. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 729 KW - rodents KW - aggression KW - seasonality KW - space use KW - winter biology Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429398 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 729 SP - 623 EP - 633 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kormann, C. A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Renner, M. A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria BT - an approach based on climate and discharge station data N2 - The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 260 KW - time-series KW - alpine KW - snow KW - variability KW - switzerland KW - impacts KW - regimes KW - temperature KW - seasonality KW - catchments Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-96560 SP - 1225 EP - 1245 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Kormann, C. A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Renner, M. A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Attribution of high resolution streamflow trends in Western Austria BT - an approach based on climate and discharge station data JF - Hydrology and earth system sciences N2 - The results of streamflow trend studies are often characterized by mostly insignificant trends and inexplicable spatial patterns. In our study region, Western Austria, this applies especially for trends of annually averaged runoff. However, analysing the altitudinal aspect, we found that there is a trend gradient from higher-altitude to lower-altitude stations, i.e. a pattern of mostly positive annual trends at higher stations and negative ones at lower stations. At midaltitudes, the trends are mostly insignificant. Here we hypothesize that the streamflow trends are caused by the following two main processes: on the one hand, melting glaciers produce excess runoff at higher-altitude watersheds. On the other hand, rising temperatures potentially alter hydrological conditions in terms of less snowfall, higher infiltration, enhanced evapotranspiration, etc., which in turn results in decreasing streamflow trends at lower-altitude watersheds. However, these patterns are masked at mid-altitudes because the resulting positive and negative trends balance each other. To support these hypotheses, we attempted to attribute the detected trends to specific causes. For this purpose, we analysed trends of filtered daily streamflow data, as the causes for these changes might be restricted to a smaller temporal scale than the annual one. This allowed for the explicit determination of the exact days of year (DOYs) when certain streamflow trends emerge, which were then linked with the corresponding DOYs of the trends and characteristic dates of other observed variables, e.g. the average DOY when temperature crosses the freezing point in spring. Based on these analyses, an empirical statistical model was derived that was able to simulate daily streamflow trends sufficiently well. Analyses of subdaily streamflow changes provided additional insights. Finally, the present study supports many modelling approaches in the literature which found out that the main drivers of alpine streamflow changes are increased glacial melt, earlier snowmelt and lower snow accumulation in wintertime. KW - alpine KW - catchments KW - impacts KW - regimes KW - seasonality KW - snow KW - switzerland KW - temperature KW - time-series KW - variability Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-19-1225-2015 SN - 1607-7938 SN - 1027-5606 VL - 19 SP - 1225 EP - 1245 PB - EGU CY - Katlenburg-Lindau ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Bougeois, Laurie A1 - Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume A1 - de Rafelis, Marc A1 - Tindall, Julia C. A1 - Proust, Jean-Noel A1 - Reichart, Gert-Jan A1 - de Nooijer, Lennart J. A1 - Guo, Zhaojie A1 - Ormukov, Cholponbelk T1 - Asian monsoons and aridification response to Paleogene sea retreat and Neogene westerly shielding indicated by seasonality in Paratethys oysters JF - Earth and planetary science letters N2 - Asian climate patterns, characterised by highly seasonal monsoons and continentality, are thought to originate in the Eocene epoch (56 to 34 million years ago - Ma) in response to global climate, Tibetan Plateau uplift and the disappearance of the giant Proto-Paratethys sea formerly extending over Eurasia. The influence of this sea on Asian climate has hitherto not been constrained by proxy records despite being recognised as a major driver by climate models. We report here strongly seasonal records preserved in annual lamina of Eocene oysters from the Proto-Paratethys with sedimentological and numerical data showing that monsoons were not dampened by the sea and that aridification was modulated by westerly moisture sourced from the sea. Hot and arid summers despite the presence of the sea suggest a strong anticyclonic zone at Central Asian latitudes and an orographic effect from the emerging Tibetan Plateau. Westerly moisture precipitating during cold and wetter winters appear to have decreased in two steps. First in response to the late Eocene (34-37 Ma) sea retreat; second by the orogeny of the Tian Shan and Pamir ranges shielding the westerlies after 25 Ma. Paleogene sea retreat and Neogene westerly shielding thus provide two successive mechanisms forcing coeval Asian desertification and biotic crises. KW - Eocene monsoon KW - aridification KW - Paratethys sea KW - Central Asia KW - seasonality KW - bivalves Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2017.12.036 SN - 0012-821X SN - 1385-013X VL - 485 SP - 99 EP - 110 PB - Elsevier CY - Amsterdam ER -