TY - JOUR A1 - Dolgener, Nicola A1 - Freudenberger, L. A1 - Schneeweiss, N. A1 - Ibisch, P. L. A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph T1 - Projecting current and potential future distribution of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina under climate change in north-eastern Germany JF - Regional environmental change N2 - Environmental change is likely to have a strong impact on biodiversity, and many species may shift their distribution in response. In this study, we aimed at projecting the availability of suitable habitat for an endangered amphibian species, the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina, in Brandenburg (north-eastern Germany). We modelled a potential habitat distribution map based on (1) a database with 10,581 presence records for Bombina from the years 1990 to 2009, (2) current estimates for ecogeographical variables (EGVs) and (3) the future projection of these EGVs according to the statistical regional model, respectively, the soil and water integrated model, applying the maximum entropy approach (Maxent). By comparing current and potential future distributions, we evaluated the projected change in distribution of suitable habitats and identified the environmental variables most associated with habitat suitability that turned out to be climatic variables related to the hydrological cycle. Under the applied scenario, our results indicate increasing habitat suitability in many areas and an extended range of suitable habitats. However, even if the environmental conditions in Brandenburg may change as predicted, it is questionable whether the Fire-bellied toad will truly benefit, as dispersal abilities of amphibian species are limited and strongly influenced by anthropogenic disturbances, that is, intensive agriculture, habitat destruction and fragmentation. Furthermore, agronomic pressure is likely to increase on productive areas with fertile soils and high water retention capacities, indeed those areas suitable for B. bombina. All these changes may affect temporary pond hydrology as well as the reproductive success and breeding phenology of toads. KW - Brandenburg KW - Climate change KW - Distribution modelling KW - Endangered species KW - Fire-bellied toad KW - Maxent Y1 - 2014 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-013-0468-9 SN - 1436-3798 SN - 1436-378X VL - 14 IS - 3 SP - 1063 EP - 1072 PB - Springer CY - Heidelberg ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Dolgener, Nicola A1 - Schröder, Christiane A1 - Schneeweiss, N. A1 - Tiedemann, Ralph T1 - Genetic population structure of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina in an area of high population density implications for conservation JF - Hydrobiologia : acta hydrobiologica, hydrographica, limnologica et protistologica N2 - In this study, we report the genetic population structure of the Fire-bellied toad Bombina bombina in Brandenburg (East Germany) in the context of conservation. We analysed 298 samples originating from 11 populations in Brandenburg using mitochondrial control region sequences and six polymorphic microsatellite loci. For comparison, we included one population each from Poland and Ukraine into our analysis. Within Brandenburg, we detected a moderate variability in the mitochondrial control region (19 different haplotypes) and at microsatellite loci (9-12 alleles per locus). These polymorphisms revealed a clear population structure among toads in Brandenburg, despite a relatively high overall population density and the moderate size of single populations (100-2000 individuals). The overall genetic population structure is consistent with a postglacial colonization from South East-Europe and a subsequent population expansion. Based on genetic connectivity, we infer Management Units (MUs) as targets for conservation. Our genetic survey identified MUs, within which human infrastructure is currently preventing any genetic exchange. We also detect an unintentional translocation from South East to North West Brandenburg, presumably in the course of fish stocking activities. Provided suitable conservation measures are taken, Brandenburg should continue to harbor large populations of this critically endangered species. KW - Conservation genetics KW - Fire-bellied toad KW - Fragmentation KW - Mitochondrial DNA KW - Microsatellites KW - Translocation Y1 - 2012 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1007/s10750-012-1016-1 SN - 0018-8158 VL - 689 IS - 1 SP - 111 EP - 120 PB - Springer CY - Dordrecht ER -