TY - JOUR A1 - Hunke, Philip A1 - Müller, Eva Nora A1 - Schröder-Esselbach, Boris A1 - Zeilhofer, Peter T1 - The Brazilian Cerrado: assessment of water and soil degradation in catchments under intensive agricultural use JF - Ecohydrology : ecosystems, land and water process interactions, ecohydrogeomorphology N2 - The Brazilian Cerrado is recognized as one of the most threatened biomes in the world, as the region has experienced a striking change from natural Cerrado vegetation to intense cash crop production. This paper reviews the history of land conversion in the Cerrado and the development of soil properties and water resources under past and ongoing land use. We compared soil and water quality parameters from different land uses considering 80 soil and 18 water studies conducted in different regions across the Cerrado to provide quantitative evidence of soil and water alterations from land use change. Following the conversion of native Cerrado, significant effects on soil pH, bulk density and available P and K for croplands and less-pronounced effects on pastures were evident. Soil total N did not differ between land uses because most of the sites classified as croplands were nitrogen-fixing soybeans, which are not artificially fertilized with N. In contrast, water quality studies showed nitrogen enrichment in agricultural catchments, indicating fertilizer impacts and potential susceptibility to eutrophication. Regardless of the land use, P is widely absent because of the high-fixing capacities of deeply weathered soils and the filtering capacity of riparian vegetation. Pesticides, however, were consistently detected throughout the entire aquatic system. In several case studies, extremely high-peak concentrations exceeded Brazilian and European Union (EU) water quality limits, which were potentially accompanied by serious health implications. Land use intensification is likely to continue, particularly in regions where less annual rainfall and severe droughts are projected in the northeastern and western Cerrado. Thus, the leaching risk and displacement of agrochemicals are expected to increase, particularly because the current legislation has caused a reduction in riparian vegetation. We conclude that land use intensification is likely to seriously limit the Cerrado's future regarding both agricultural productivity and ecosystem stability. Because only limited data are available, we recommend further field studies to understand the interaction between terrestrial and aquatic systems. This study may serve as a valuable database for integrated modelling to investigate the impact of land use and climate change on soil and water resources and to test and develop mitigation measures for the Cerrado. Copyright (C) 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KW - Cerrado KW - land degradation KW - ecosystem change KW - water quality KW - soil parameters KW - ecohydrology KW - land use change KW - Mato Grosso KW - pesticides KW - cash crops Y1 - 2015 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1002/eco.1573 SN - 1936-0584 SN - 1936-0592 VL - 8 IS - 6 SP - 1154 EP - 1180 PB - Wiley-Blackwell CY - Hoboken ER - TY - THES A1 - Aich, Valentin T1 - Floods in the Niger River Basin in the face of global change T1 - Hochwasser im Niger Einzugsgebiet im Kontext des Globalen Wandels BT - analysis, attribution and projections BT - Analyse, Zuschreibung und Projektionen N2 - In the last decade, the number and dimensions of catastrophic flooding events in the Niger River Basin (NRB) have markedly increased. Despite the devastating impact of the floods on the population and the mainly agriculturally based economy of the riverine nations, awareness of the hazards in policy and science is still low. The urgency of this topic and the existing research deficits are the motivation for the present dissertation. The thesis is an initial detailed assessment of the increasing flood risk in the NRB. The research strategy is based on four questions regarding (1) features of the change in flood risk, (2) reasons for the change in the flood regime, (3) expected changes of the flood regime given climate and land use changes, and (4) recommendations from previous analysis for reducing the flood risk in the NRB. The question examining the features of change in the flood regime is answered by means of statistical analysis. Trend, correlation, changepoint, and variance analyses show that, in addition to the factors exposure and vulnerability, the hazard itself has also increased significantly in the NRB, in accordance with the decadal climate pattern of West Africa. The northern arid and semi-arid parts of the NRB are those most affected by the changes. As potential reasons for the increase in flood magnitudes, climate and land use changes are attributed by means of a hypothesis-testing framework. Two different approaches, based on either data analysis or simulation, lead to similar results, showing that the influence of climatic changes is generally larger compared to that of land use changes. Only in the dry areas of the NRB is the influence of land use changes comparable to that of climatic alterations. Future changes of the flood regime are evaluated using modelling results. First ensembles of statistically and dynamically downscaled climate models based on different emission scenarios are analyzed. The models agree with a distinct increase in temperature. The precipitation signal, however, is not coherent. The climate scenarios are used to drive an eco-hydrological model. The influence of climatic changes on the flood regime is uncertain due to the unclear precipitation signal. Still, in general, higher flood peaks are expected. In a next step, effects of land use changes are integrated into the model. Different scenarios show that regreening might help to reduce flood peaks. In contrast, an expansion of agriculture might enhance the flood peaks in the NRB. Similarly to the analysis of observed changes in the flood regime, the impacts of climate- and land use changes for the future scenarios are also most severe in the dry areas of the NRB. In order to answer the final research question, the results of the above analysis are integrated into a range of recommendations for science and policy on how to reduce flood risk in the NRB. The main recommendations include a stronger consideration of the enormous natural climate variability in the NRB and a focus on so called “no-regret” adaptation strategies which account for high uncertainty, as well as a stronger consideration of regional differences. Regarding the prevention and mitigation of catastrophic flooding, the most vulnerable and sensitive areas in the basin, the arid and semi-arid Sahelian and Sudano-Sahelian regions, should be prioritized. Eventually, an active, science-based and science-guided flood policy is recommended. The enormous population growth in the NRB in connection with the expected deterioration of environmental and climatic conditions is likely to enhance the region´s vulnerability to flooding. A smart and sustainable flood policy can help mitigate these negative impacts of flooding on the development of riverine societies in West Africa. N2 - Während des vergangenen Jahrzehnts nahmen die Anzahl und die Ausmaße von katastrophalen Hochwassern im Einzugsgebiet des Nigerflussess (NEZG) deutlich zu. Trotz der verheerenden Auswirkungen der Hochwasserkatastrophen auf die Menschen und die hauptsächlich auf Landwirtschaft basierende Wirtschaft der Anrainerstaaten wird das Thema von Politik und Wissenschaft noch kaum beachtet. Die vorliegende Dissertation ist die erste ausführliche Analyse des steigenden Hochwasserrisikos im NEZG. Die Forschungsstrategie basiert auf vier Fragen nach (1) der Art der Veränderungen des Hochwasserrisikos, (2) den Ursachen der Veränderungen im Hochwasserregime, (3) den zukünftigen Entwicklungen im Hochwasserregime hinsichtlich der erwartenden Klima- und Landnutzungswandel und (4) den aus den Untersuchungen abgeleiteten Empfehlungen zur Reduzierung des Hochwasserrisikos im NEZG. Die Frage nach den Merkmalen der Veränderungen im Hochwasserrisiko wurde mithilfe von statistischen Untersuchungen beantwortet. Die Analysen zeigen, dass neben den Risikofaktoren Exponiertheit und Verwundbarkeit auch die Hochwasserstände selbst im NEZG in den letzten Jahrzehnten signifikant und entsprechend der typischen dekadischen Klimamuster Westafrikas angestiegen sind. Als potentielle Ursachen des Hochwasseranstiegs werden Klima- und Landnutzungswandel untersucht. Zwei verschiedene Ansätze, basierend auf Daten sowie auf Simulationen, führen zu ähnlichen Ergebnissen und zeigen, dass der Einfluss der Klimaveränderungen im Allgemeinen größer als der des Landnutzungswandels ist. Das zukünftige Hochwasserrisiko wird anhand des öko-hydrologisches Modells SWIM abgeschätzt. Der Einfluss des Klimawandels auf das Hochwasserregime ist auf Grund des problematischen Niederschlagssignals unsicher. Tendenziell werden aber höhere Maximalabflüsse erwartet. Der Effekt der Landnutzungsänderung beeinflusst das Hochwasserverhalten ebenfalls stark, besonders in den trockenen Gebieten. Verschiedene Szenarien zeigen, dass Renaturierung hülfe, Hochwasserspitzen zu kappen. Eine Ausweitung der Agrarflächen dagegen würde die Hochwässer im NEZG weiter verstärken Zentrale Empfehlungen sind eine stärkere Einbeziehung der enorm starken natürlichen Klimavariabilität im NEZG und eine Fokussierung auf sogenannte „no-regret“ Anpassungsstrategien. Dabei sollte den verwundbarsten Regionen des Einzugsgebiets, den ariden und semi-ariden Regionen, Priorität eingeräumt werden. Die enorme Bevölkerungszunahme im NEZG verbunden mit der zu erwartenden Verschlechterung der Umwelt- und Klimabedingungen wird mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit auch die Verwundbarkeit bezüglich Hochwässer weiter ansteigen lassen. Eine vernünftige und nachhaltige Hochwasserpolitik kann helfen, die negativen Folgen auf die Entwicklung der Anrainerstaaten des Nigerflusses abzumindern. KW - flood KW - Niger KW - climate change KW - land use change KW - Hochwasser KW - Niger KW - Klimawandel KW - Landnutzungswandel Y1 - 2015 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-91577 ER -