TY - GEN A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Winterrath, Tanja T1 - Optical flow models as an open benchmark for radar-based precipitation nowcasting (rainymotion v0.1) T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Quantitative precipitation nowcasting (QPN) has become an essential technique in various application contexts, such as early warning or urban sewage control. A common heuristic prediction approach is to track the motion of precipitation features from a sequence of weather radar images and then to displace the precipitation field to the imminent future (minutes to hours) based on that motion, assuming that the intensity of the features remains constant (“Lagrangian persistence”). In that context, “optical flow” has become one of the most popular tracking techniques. Yet the present landscape of computational QPN models still struggles with producing open software implementations. Focusing on this gap, we have developed and extensively benchmarked a stack of models based on different optical flow algorithms for the tracking step and a set of parsimonious extrapolation procedures based on image warping and advection. We demonstrate that these models provide skillful predictions comparable with or even superior to state-of-the-art operational software. Our software library (“rainymotion”) for precipitation nowcasting is written in the Python programming language and openly available at GitHub (https://github.com/hydrogo/rainymotion, Ayzel et al., 2019). That way, the library may serve as a tool for providing fast, free, and transparent solutions that could serve as a benchmark for further model development and hypothesis testing – a benchmark that is far more advanced than the conventional benchmark of Eulerian persistence commonly used in QPN verification experiments. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 709 KW - machine KW - system Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-429333 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 709 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Izhitskiy, Alexander T1 - Climate change impact assessment on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - During the last few decades, the rapid separation of the Small Aral Sea from the isolated basin has changed its hydrological and ecological conditions tremendously. In the present study, we developed and validated the hybrid model for the Syr Darya River basin based on a combination of state-of-the-art hydrological and machine learning models. Climate change impact on freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the projection period 2007–2099 has been quantified based on the developed hybrid model and bias corrected and downscaled meteorological projections simulated by four General Circulation Models (GCM) for each of three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP). The developed hybrid model reliably simulates freshwater inflow for the historical period with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.72 and a Kling–Gupta efficiency of 0.77. Results of the climate change impact assessment showed that the freshwater inflow projections produced by different GCMs are misleading by providing contradictory results for the projection period. However, we identified that the relative runoff changes are expected to be more pronounced in the case of more aggressive RCP scenarios. The simulated projections of freshwater inflow provide a basis for further assessment of climate change impacts on hydrological and ecological conditions of the Small Aral Sea in the 21st Century. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1071 KW - Small Aral Sea KW - hydrology KW - climate change KW - modeling KW - machine learning Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-472794 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1071 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bilbao-Lasa, Peru A1 - Jara-Muñoz, Julius A1 - Pedoja, Kevin A1 - Álvarez, Irantzu A1 - Aranburu, Arantza A1 - Iriarte, Eneko A1 - Galparsoro, Ibon T1 - Submerged marine terraces identification and an approach for numerical modeling the sequence formation in the Bay of Biscay (Northeastern Iberian Peninsula) T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Submerged sequences of marine terraces potentially provide crucial information of past sea-level positions. However, the distribution and characteristics of drowned marine terrace sequences are poorly known at a global scale. Using bathymetric data and novel mapping and modeling techniques, we studied a submerged sequence of marine terraces in the Bay of Biscay with the objective to identify the distribution and morphologies of submerged marine terraces and the timing and conditions that allowed their formation and preservation. To accomplish the objectives a high-resolution bathymetry (5 m) was analyzed using Geographic Information Systems and TerraceM(R). The successive submerged terraces were identified using a Surface Classification Model, which linearly combines the slope and the roughness of the surface to extract fossil sea-cliffs and fossil rocky shore platforms. For that purpose, contour and hillshaded maps were also analyzed. Then, shoreline angles, a geomorphic marker located at the intersection between the fossil sea-cliff and platform, were mapped analyzing swath profiles perpendicular to the isobaths. Most of the submerged strandlines are irregularly preserved throughout the continental shelf. In summary, 12 submerged terraces with their shoreline angles between approximately: -13 m (T1), -30 and -32 m (T2), -34 and 41 m (T3), -44 and -47 m (T4), -49 and 53 m (T5), -55 and 58 m (T6), -59 and 62 m (T7), -65 and 67 m (T8), -68 and 70 m (T9), -74 and -77 m (T10), -83 and -86 m (T11) and -89 and 92 m (T12). Nevertheless, the ones showing the best lateral continuity and preservation in the central part of the shelf are T3, T4, T5, T7, T8, and T10. The age of the terraces has been estimated using a landscape evolution model. To simulate the formation and preservation of submerged terraces three different scenarios: (i) 20-0 ka; (ii) 128-0 ka; and (iii) 128-20 ka, were compared. The best scenario for terrace generation was between 128 and 20 Ka, where T3, T5, and T7 could have been formed. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1414 KW - marine terrace KW - submerged sequence KW - digital bathymetric model KW - TerraceM KW - numerical modeling KW - Bay of Biscay Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517815 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 47 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Blume, Theresa A1 - Zehe, Erwin A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Use of soil moisture dynamics and patterns at different spatio-temporal scales for the investigation of subsurface flow processes N2 - Spatial patterns as well as temporal dynamics of soil moisture have a major influence on runoff generation. The investigation of these dynamics and patterns can thus yield valuable information on hydrological processes, especially in data scarce or previously ungauged catchments. The combination of spatially scarce but temporally high resolution soil moisture profiles with episodic and thus temporally scarce moisture profiles at additional locations provides information on spatial as well as temporal patterns of soil moisture at the hillslope transect scale. This approach is better suited to difficult terrain (dense forest, steep slopes) than geophysical techniques and at the same time less cost-intensive than a high resolution grid of continuously measuring sensors. Rainfall simulation experiments with dye tracers while continuously monitoring soil moisture response allows for visualization of flow processes in the unsaturated zone at these locations. Data was analyzed at different spacio-temporal scales using various graphical methods, such as space-time colour maps (for the event and plot scale) and binary indicator maps (for the long-term and hillslope scale). Annual dynamics of soil moisture and decimeterscale variability were also investigated. The proposed approach proved to be successful in the investigation of flow processes in the unsaturated zone and showed the importance of preferential flow in the Malalcahuello Catchment, a datascarce catchment in the Andes of Southern Chile. Fast response times of stream flow indicate that preferential flow observed at the plot scale might also be of importance at the hillslope or catchment scale. Flow patterns were highly variable in space but persistent in time. The most likely explanation for preferential flow in this catchment is a combination of hydrophobicity, small scale heterogeneity in rainfall due to redistribution in the canopy and strong gradients in unsaturated conductivities leading to self-reinforcing flow paths. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 125 KW - Repellent sandy soil KW - Poorly gauged catchment KW - Volcanic ash soils KW - Water repellency KW - Preferential flow Y1 - 2009 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-44924 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bürger, Gerd T1 - Dynamically vs. empirically downscaled medium-range precipitation forecasts N2 - For three small, mountainous catchments in Germany two medium-range forecast systems are compared that predict precipitation for up to 5 days in advance. One system is composed of the global German weather service (DWD) model, GME, which is dynamically downscaled using the COSMO-EU regional model. The other system is an empirical (expanded) downscaling of the ECMWF model IFS. Forecasts are verified against multi-year daily observations, by applying standard skill scores to events of specified intensity. All event classes are skillfully predicted by the empirical system for up to five days lead time. For the available prediction range of one to two days it is superior to the dynamical system. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 126 KW - Weather-service KW - Verification KW - Scenarios KW - Models Y1 - 2009 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-44939 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Bürger, Gerd T1 - A seamless filter for daily to seasonal forecasts, with applications to Iran and Brazil T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - A digital filter is introduced which treats the problem of predictability versus time averaging in a continuous, seamless manner. This seamless filter (SF) is characterized by a unique smoothing rule that determines the strength of smoothing in dependence on lead time. The rule needs to be specified beforehand, either by expert knowledge or by user demand. As a result, skill curves are obtained that allow a predictability assessment across a whole range of time-scales, from daily to seasonal, in a uniform manner. The SF is applied to downscaled SEAS5 ensemble forecasts for two focus regions in or near the tropical belt, the river basins of the Karun in Iran and the Sao Francisco in Brazil. Both are characterized by strong seasonality and semi-aridity, so that predictability across various time-scales is in high demand. Among other things, it is found that from the start of the water year (autumn), areal precipitation is predictable with good skill for the Karun basin two and a half months ahead; for the Sao Francisco it is only one month, longer-term prediction skill is just above the critical level. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1214 KW - climate drift KW - ensemble prediction KW - seamless prediction KW - seasonal forecast skill Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-523835 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 726 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Cao, Xianyong A1 - Tian, Fang A1 - Andreev, Andrei A1 - Anderson, Patricia M. A1 - Lozhkin, Anatoly V. A1 - Bezrukova, Elena A1 - Ni, Jian A1 - Rudaya, Natalia A1 - Stobbe, Astrid A1 - Wieczorek, Mareike A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - A taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized fossil pollen dataset from Siberia covering the last 40 kyr T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Pollen records from Siberia are mostly absent in global or Northern Hemisphere synthesis works. Here we present a taxonomically harmonized and temporally standardized pollen dataset that was synthesized using 173 palynological records from Siberia and adjacent areas (northeastern Asia, 42-75 degrees N, 50-180 degrees E). Pollen data were taxonomically harmonized, i.e. the original 437 taxa were assigned to 106 combined pollen taxa. Age-depth models for all records were revised by applying a constant Bayesian age-depth modelling routine. The pollen dataset is available as count data and percentage data in a table format (taxa vs. samples), with age information for each sample. The dataset has relatively few sites covering the last glacial period between 40 and 11.5 ka (calibrated thousands of years before 1950 CE) particularly from the central and western part of the study area. In the Holocene period, the dataset has many sites from most of the area, with the exception of the central part of Siberia. Of the 173 pollen records, 81 % of pollen counts were downloaded from open databases (GPD, EPD, PANGAEA) and 10 % were contributions by the original data gatherers, while a few were digitized from publications. Most of the pollen records originate from peatlands (48 %) and lake sediments (33 %). Most of the records (83 %) have >= 3 dates, allowing the establishment of reliable chronologies. The dataset can be used for various purposes, including pollen data mapping (example maps for Larix at selected time slices are shown) as well as quantitative climate and vegetation reconstructions. The datasets for pollen counts and pollen percentages are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.898616 (Cao et al., 2019a), also including the site information, data source, original publication, dating data, and the plant functional type for each pollen taxa. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1427 KW - Late Quaternary vegetation KW - Holocene environmental history KW - eastern continental Asia KW - plant macrofossil data KW - late pleistocene KW - paleoenvironmental records KW - Verkhoyansk mountains KW - climate dynamics KW - glacial maximum KW - Northern Asia Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-512438 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Coesfeld, Jacqueline A1 - Anderson, Sharolyn J. A1 - Baugh, Kimberly A1 - Elvidge, Christopher D. A1 - Schernthanner, Harald A1 - Kyba, Christopher C. M. T1 - Variation of individual location radiance in VIIRS DNB monthly composite images T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - With the growing size and use of night light time series from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night Band (DNB), it is important to understand the stability of the dataset. All satellites observe differences in pixel values during repeat observations. In the case of night light data, these changes can be due to both environmental effects and changes in light emission. Here we examine the stability of individual locations of particular large scale light sources (e.g., airports and prisons) in the monthly composites of DNB data from April 2012 to September 2017. The radiances for individual pixels of most large light emitters are approximately normally distributed, with a standard deviation of typically 15-20% of the mean. Greenhouses and flares, however, are not stable sources. We observe geospatial autocorrelation in the monthly variations for nearby sites, while the correlation for sites separated by large distances is small. This suggests that local factors contribute most to the variation in the pixel radiances and furthermore that averaging radiances over large areas will reduce the total variation. A better understanding of the causes of temporal variation would improve the sensitivity of DNB to lighting changes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1113 KW - artificial light at night KW - light pollution KW - night lights KW - VIIRS DNB Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-472326 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1113 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Dietze, Elisabeth A1 - Mangelsdorf, Kai A1 - Andreev, Andreev A1 - Karger, Cornelia A1 - Schreuder, Laura T. A1 - Hopmans, Ellen C. A1 - Rach, Oliver A1 - Sachse, Dirk A1 - Wennrich, Volker A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Relationships between low-temperature fires, climate and vegetation during three late glacials and interglacials of the last 430 kyr in northeastern Siberia reconstructed from monosaccharide anhydrides in Lake El’gygytgyn sediments T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Landscapes in high northern latitudes are assumed to be highly sensitive to future global change, but the rates and long-term trajectories of changes are rather uncertain. In the boreal zone, fires are an important factor in climate-vegetation interactions and biogeochemical cycles. Fire regimes are characterized by small, frequent, low-intensity fires within summergreen boreal forests dominated by larch, whereas evergreen boreal forests dominated by spruce and pine burn large areas less frequently but at higher intensities. Here, we explore the potential of the monosaccharide anhydrides (MA) levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan to serve as proxies of low-intensity biomass burning in glacial-to-interglacial lake sediments from the high northern latitudes. We use sediments from Lake El'gygytgyn (cores PG 1351 and ICDP 5011-1), located in the far north-east of Russia, and study glacial and interglacial samples of the last 430 kyr (marine isotope stages 5e, 6, 7e, 8, 11c and 12) that had different climate and biome configurations. Combined with pollen and non-pollen palynomorph records from the same samples, we assess how far the modern relationships between fire, climate and vegetation persisted during the past, on orbital to centennial timescales. We find that MAs attached to particulates were well-preserved in up to 430 kyr old sediments with higher influxes from low-intensity biomass burning in interglacials compared to glacials. MA influxes significantly increase when summergreen boreal forest spreads closer to the lake, whereas they decrease when tundra-steppe environments and, especially, Sphagnum peatlands spread. This suggests that low-temperature fires are a typical characteristic of Siberian larch forests also on long timescales. The results also suggest that low-intensity fires would be reduced by vegetation shifts towards very dry environments due to reduced biomass availability, as well as by shifts towards peatlands, which limits fuel dryness. In addition, we observed very low MA ratios, which we interpret as high contributions of galactosan and mannosan from biomass sources other than those currently monitored, such as the moss-lichen mats in the understorey of the summergreen boreal forest. Overall, sedimentary MAs can provide a powerful proxy for fire regime reconstructions and extend our knowledge of long-term natural fire-climate-vegetation feedbacks in the high northern latitudes. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1439 KW - molecular tracers KW - organic aerosols KW - emission factors KW - carbonaceous aerosols KW - pollen records KW - core PG1351 KW - biomass KW - holocene KW - levoglucosan KW - charcoal Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516843 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 2 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Dobkowitz, Sophia A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Baroni, Gabriele A1 - Pérez-Marin, Aldrin M. T1 - Cross-Scale Vulnerability Assessment for Smallholder Farming BT - A Case Study from the Northeast of Brazil T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Climate change heavily impacts smallholder farming worldwide. Cross-scale vulnerability assessment has a high potential to identify nested measures for reducing vulnerability of smallholder farmers. Despite their high practical value, there are currently only limited examples of cross-scale assessments. The presented study aims at assessing the vulnerability of smallholder farmers in the Northeast of Brazil across three scales: regional, farm and field scale. In doing so, it builds on existing vulnerability indices and compares results between indices at the same scale and across scales. In total, six independent indices are tested, two at each scale. The calculated indices include social, economic and ecological indicators, based on municipal statistics, meteorological data, farm interviews and soil analyses. Subsequently, indices and overlapping indicators are normalized for intra- and cross-scale comparison. The results show considerable differences between indices across and within scales. They indicate different activities to reduce vulnerability of smallholder farmers. Major shortcomings arise from the conceptual differences between the indices. We therefore recommend the development of hierarchical indices, which are adapted to local conditions and contain more overlapping indicators for a better understanding of the nested vulnerabilities of smallholder farmers. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 978 KW - family farming KW - nested vulnerabilities KW - vulnerability indices KW - semi-arid regions KW - Paraíba Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-474703 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 978 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Cassel, Keith A1 - Castro, Jorge T1 - Spatial analysis of soil hydraulic conductivity in a tropical rain forest catchment N2 - The topography of first-order catchments in a region of western Amazonia was found to exhibit distinctive, recurrent features: a steep, straight lower side slope, a flat or nearly flat terrace at an intermediate elevation between valley floor and interfluve, and an upper side slope connecting interfluve and intermediate terrace. A detailed survey of soil-saturated hydraulic conductivity (K sat)-depth relationships, involving 740 undisturbed soil cores, was conducted in a 0.75-ha first-order catchment. The sampling approach was stratified with respect to the above slope units. Exploratory data analysis suggested fourth-root transformation of batches from the 0–0.1 m depth interval, log transformation of batches from the subsequent 0.1 m depth increments, and the use of robust estimators of location and scale. The K sat of the steep lower side slope decreased from 46 to 0.1 mm/h over the overall sampling depth of 0.4 m. The corresponding decrease was from 46 to 0.1 mm/h on the intermediate terrace, from 335 to 0.01 mm/h on the upper side slope, and from 550 to 0.015 mm/h on the interfluve. A depthwise comparison of these slope units led to the formulation of several hypotheses concerning the link between K sat and topography. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 051 Y1 - 1992 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-16979 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Cassel, Keith A1 - Tinner, W. T1 - A daily rainfall erosivity model for Western Amazonia N2 - Rainfall erosivities as defined by the R factor from the universal soil loss equation were determined for all events during a two-year period at the station La Cuenca in western Amazonia. Three methods based on a power relationship between rainfall amount and erosivity were then applied to estimate event and daily rainfall erosivities from the respective rainfall amounts. A test of the resulting regression equations against an independent data set proved all three methods equally adequate in predicting rainfall erosivity from daily rainfall amount. We recommend the Richardson model for testing in the Amazon Basin, and its use with the coefficient from La Cuenca in western Amazonia. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 050 KW - MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES KW - KINETIC-ENERGY KW - UNITED-STATES KW - EROSION Y1 - 1993 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-16962 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Cassel, Keith A1 - Zuñiga, L. T1 - Throughfall in the terra firme forest of Western Amazonia N2 - Throughfall measurements were made under primary terra firme rainforest in the Rio Pichis valley, in the Upper Amazon Basin of Peru. Based on 214 precipitation events over nearly 18 months, throughfall was estimated to be 83.1±8.8% of gross precipitation. Regression analysis of all events revealed that gross precipitation is the only significant explanatory variable; the use of one-burst events does not significantly improve the regression relationship. Gross precipitation is, however, a poor predictor of throughfall for small rainfall events. The two forest structure parameters, canopy capacity, S, and free throughfall coefficient, p, were determined to be 1.3±0.2 mm and 0.32±0.18 mm. Rainfall intensity was found to influence these parameters. New methods which attempt to minimize the influence of meteorologic variables are used to estimate the potential values of these canopy parameters. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 049 Y1 - 1994 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-16955 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Lack, Andreas A1 - Cassel, Keith T1 - Chemical fingerprints of hydrological compartments and flow paths at La Cuenca, western Amazonia N2 - A forested first-order catchment in western Amazonia was monitored for 2 years to determine the chemical fingerprints of precipitation, throughfall, overland flow, pipe flow, soil water, groundwater, and streamflow. We used five tracers (hydrogen, calcium, magnesium, potassium, and silica) to distinguish “fast” flow paths mainly influenced by the biological subsystem from “slow” flow paths in the geochemical subsystem. The former comprise throughfall, overland flow, and pipe flow and are characterized by a high potassium/silica ratio; the latter are represented by soil water and groundwater, which have a low potassium/silica ratio. Soil water and groundwater differ with respect to calcium and magnesium. The groundwater-controlled streamflow chemistry is strongly modified by contributions from fast flow paths during precipitation events. The high potassium/silica ratio of these flow paths suggests that the storm flow response at La Cuenca is dominated by event water. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 047 KW - Chemistry of fresh water KW - Runoff and streamflow KW - Weathering Y1 - 1995 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-16937 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Lorieri, Daniel A1 - Bonell, Mike T1 - Mixing model approaches to estimate storm flow sources in an overland flow-dominated tropical rain forest catchment N2 - Previous hydrometric studies demonstrated the prevalence of overland flow as a hydrological pathway in the tropical rain forest catchment of South Creek, northeast Queensland. The purpose of this study was to consider this information in a mixing analysis with the aim of identifying sources of, and of estimating their contribution to, storm flow during two events in February 1993. K and acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) were used as tracers because they provided the best separation of the potential sources, saturation overland flow, soil water from depths of 0.3, 0.6, and 1.2 m, and hillslope groundwater in a two-dimensional mixing plot. It was necessary to distinguish between saturation overland flow, generated at the soil surface and following unchanneled pathways, and overland flow in incised pathways. This latter type of overland flow was a mixture of saturation overland flow (event water) with high concentrations of K and a low ANC, soil water (preevent water) with low concentrations of K and a low ANC, and groundwater (preevent water) with low concentrations of K and a high ANC. The same sources explained the streamwater chemistry during the two events with strongly differing rainfall and antecedent moisture conditions. The contribution of saturation overland flow dominated the storm flow during the first, high-intensity, 178-mm event, while the contribution of soil water reached 50% during peak flow of the second, low-intensity, 44-mm event 5 days later. This latter result is remarkably similar to soil water contributions to storm flow in mountainous forested catchments of the southeastern United States. In terms of event and preevent water the storm flow hydrograph of the high-intensity event is dominated by event water and that of the low-intensity event by preevent water. This study highlights the problems of applying mixing analyses to overland flow-dominated catchments and soil environments with a poorly developed vertical chemical zonation and emphasizes the need for independent hydrometric information for a complete characterization of watershed hydrology and chemistry. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 048 KW - SOILWATER END-MEMBERS KW - HYDROGRAPH SEPARATION KW - STREAMWATER CHEMISTRY KW - ACIDIFICATION KW - MIXTURE KW - TRACERS KW - EVENTS Y1 - 1995 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-16948 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Fischer, Melanie A1 - Brettin, Jana A1 - Roessner, Sigrid A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Fort, Monique A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Rare flood scenarios for a rapidly growing high-mountain city: Pokhara, Nepal T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Pokhara (ca. 850 m a.s.l.), Nepal's second-largest city, lies at the foot of the Higher Himalayas and has more than tripled its population in the past 3 decades. Construction materials are in high demand in rapidly expanding built-up areas, and several informal settlements cater to unregulated sand and gravel mining in the Pokhara Valley's main river, the Seti Khola. This river is fed by the Sabche glacier below Annapurna III (7555 m a.s.l.), some 35 km upstream of the city, and traverses one of the steepest topographic gradients in the Himalayas. In May 2012 a sudden flood caused >70 fatalities and intense damage along this river and rekindled concerns about flood risk management. We estimate the flow dynamics and inundation depths of flood scenarios using the hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center’s River Analysis System). We simulate the potential impacts of peak discharges from 1000 to 10 000 m3 s−1 on land cover based on high-resolution Maxar satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap data (buildings and road network). We also trace the dynamics of two informal settlements near Kaseri and Yamdi with high potential flood impact from RapidEye, PlanetScope, and Google Earth imagery of the past 2 decades. Our hydrodynamic simulations highlight several sites of potential hydraulic ponding that would largely affect these informal settlements and sites of sand and gravel mining. These built-up areas grew between 3- and 20-fold, thus likely raising local flood exposure well beyond changes in flood hazard. Besides these drastic local changes, about 1 % of Pokhara's built-up urban area and essential rural road network is in the highest-hazard zones highlighted by our flood simulations. Our results stress the need to adapt early-warning strategies for locally differing hydrological and geomorphic conditions in this rapidly growing urban watershed. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1284 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-571209 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1284 SP - 3105 EP - 3123 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Köhli, Markus A1 - Budach, Christian A1 - Schrön, Martin A1 - Oswald, Sascha T1 - Assessing the feasibility of a directional cosmic-ray neutron sensing sensor for estimating soil moisture T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a non-invasive tool for measuring hydrogen pools such as soil moisture, snow or vegetation. The intrinsic integration over a radial hectare-scale footprint is a clear advantage for averaging out small-scale heterogeneity, but on the other hand the data may become hard to interpret in complex terrain with patchy land use. This study presents a directional shielding approach to prevent neutrons from certain angles from being counted while counting neutrons entering the detector from other angles and explores its potential to gain a sharper horizontal view on the surrounding soil moisture distribution. Using the Monte Carlo code URANOS (Ultra Rapid Neutron-Only Simulation), we modelled the effect of additional polyethylene shields on the horizontal field of view and assessed its impact on the epithermal count rate, propagated uncertainties and aggregation time. The results demonstrate that directional CRNS measurements are strongly dominated by isotropic neutron transport, which dilutes the signal of the targeted direction especially from the far field. For typical count rates of customary CRNS stations, directional shielding of half-spaces could not lead to acceptable precision at a daily time resolution. However, the mere statistical distinction of two rates should be feasible. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1228 KW - water-balance KW - quantification KW - calibration KW - validation Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-544229 SN - 1866-8372 SP - 75 EP - 92 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Gabriel, Marvin A1 - Toader, Camelia A1 - Faul, Franziska A1 - Rosskopf, Niko A1 - Grundling, Piet-Louis A1 - Van Huyssteen, Cornelius W. A1 - Grundling, Althea T. A1 - Zeitz, Jutta T1 - Physical and hydrological properties of peat as proxies for degradation of South African peatlands BT - Implications for conservation and restoration T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The physical and hydrological properties of peat from seven peatlands in northern Maputaland (South Africa) were investigated and related to the degradation processes of peatlands in different hydrogeomorphic settings. The selected peatlands are representative of typical hydrogeomorphic settings and different stages of human modification from natural to severely degraded. Nineteen transects (141 soil corings in total) were examined in order to describe peat properties typical of the distinct hydrogeomorphic settings. We studied degree of decomposition, organic matter content, bulk density, water retention, saturated hydraulic conductivity and hydrophobicity of the peats. From these properties we derived pore size distribution, unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and maximum capillary rise. We found that, after drainage, degradation advances faster in peatlands containing wood peat than in peatlands containing radicell peat. Eucalyptus plantations in catchment areas are especially threatening to peatlands in seeps, interdune depressions and unchannelled valley bottoms. All peatlands and their recharge areas require wise management, especially valley-bottom peatlands with swamp forest vegetation. Blocking drainage ditches is indispensable as a first step towards achieving the restoration of drained peatland areas, and further measures may be necessary to enhance the distribution of water. The sensitive swamp forest ecosystems should be given conservation priority. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1103 KW - moorsh forming process KW - swamp forest KW - restoration KW - unsaturated hydraulic conductivity Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-470514 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1103 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Schrön, Martin A1 - Oswald, Sascha T1 - Spatio-temporal soil moisture retrieval at the catchment scale using a dense network of cosmic-ray neutron sensors T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Cosmic-ray neutron sensing (CRNS) is a powerful technique for retrieving representative estimates of soil water content at a horizontal scale of hectometres (the “field scale”) and depths of tens of centimetres (“the root zone”). This study demonstrates the potential of the CRNS technique to obtain spatio-temporal patterns of soil moisture beyond the integrated volume from isolated CRNS footprints. We use data from an observational campaign carried out between May and July 2019 that featured a dense network of more than 20 neutron detectors with partly overlapping footprints in an area that exhibits pronounced soil moisture gradients within one square kilometre. The present study is the first to combine these observations in order to represent the heterogeneity of soil water content at the sub-footprint scale as well as between the CRNS stations. First, we apply a state-of-the-art procedure to correct the observed neutron count rates for static effects (heterogeneity in space, e.g. soil organic matter) and dynamic effects (heterogeneity in time, e.g. barometric pressure). Based on the homogenized neutron data, we investigate the robustness of a calibration approach that uses a single calibration parameter across all CRNS stations. Finally, we benchmark two different interpolation techniques for obtaining spatio-temporal representations of soil moisture: first, ordinary Kriging with a fixed range; second, spatial interpolation complemented by geophysical inversion (“constrained interpolation”). To that end, we optimize the parameters of a geostatistical interpolation model so that the error in the forward-simulated neutron count rates is minimized, and suggest a heuristic forward operator to make the optimization problem computationally feasible. Comparison with independent measurements from a cluster of soil moisture sensors (SoilNet) shows that the constrained interpolation approach is superior for representing horizontal soil moisture gradients at the hectometre scale. The study demonstrates how a CRNS network can be used to generate coherent, consistent, and continuous soil moisture patterns that could be used to validate hydrological models or remote sensing products. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1162 Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-522131 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hellwig, Niels A1 - Tatti, Dylan A1 - Sartori, Giacomo A1 - Anschlag, Kerstin A1 - Graefe, Ulfert A1 - Egli, Markus A1 - Gobat, Jean-Michel A1 - Broll, Gabriele T1 - Modeling spatial patterns of humus forms in montane and subalpine forests BT - implications of local variability for upscaling T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Humus forms are a distinctive morphological indicator of soil organic matter decomposition. The spatial distribution of humus forms depends on environmental factors such as topography, climate and vegetation. In montane and subalpine forests, environmental influences show a high spatial heterogeneity, which is reflected by a high spatial variability of humus forms. This study aims at examining spatial patterns of humus forms and their dependence on the spatial scale in a high mountain forest environment (Val di Sole/Val di Rabbi, Trentino, Italian Alps). On the basis of the distributions of environmental covariates across the study area, we described humus forms at the local scale (six sampling sites), slope scale (60 sampling sites) and landscape scale (30 additional sampling sites). The local variability of humus forms was analyzed with regard to the ground cover type. At the slope and landscape scale, spatial patterns of humus forms were modeled applying random forests and ordinary kriging of the model residuals. The results indicate that the occurrence of the humus form classes Mull, Mullmoder, Moder, Amphi and Eroded Moder generally depends on the topographical position. Local-scale patterns are mostly related to micro-topography (local accumulation and erosion sites) and ground cover, whereas slope-scale patterns are mainly connected with slope exposure and elevation. Patterns at the landscape scale show a rather irregular distribution, as spatial models at this scale do not account for local to slope-scale variations of humus forms. Moreover, models at the slope scale perform distinctly better than at the landscape scale. In conclusion, the results of this study highlight that landscape-scale predictions of humus forms should be accompanied by local- and slope-scale studies in order to enhance the general understanding of humus form patterns. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1128 KW - soil organic matter decomposition KW - spatial modeling KW - random forest KW - multi-scale analysis KW - forest soils KW - Italian Alps Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-472265 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1128 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hellwig, Niels A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Markovic, Danijela T1 - Climatic and socioeconomic effects on land cover changes across Europe BT - Does protected area designation matter? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Land cover change is a dynamic phenomenon driven by synergetic biophysical and socioeconomic effects. It involves massive transitions from natural to less natural habitats and thereby threatens ecosystems and the services they provide. To retain intact ecosystems and reduce land cover change to a minimum of natural transition processes, a dense network of protected areas has been established across Europe. However, even protected areas and in particular the zones around protected areas have been shown to undergo land cover changes. The aim of our study was to compare land cover changes in protected areas, non-protected areas, and 1 km buffer zones around protected areas and analyse their relationship to climatic and socioeconomic factors across Europe between 2000 and 2012 based on earth observation data. We investigated land cover flows describing major change processes: urbanisation, afforestation, deforestation, intensification of agriculture, extensification of agriculture, and formation of water bodies. Based on boosted regression trees, we modelled correlations between land cover flows and climatic and socioeconomic factors. The results show that land cover changes were most frequent in 1 km buffer zones around protected areas (3.0% of all buffer areas affected). Overall, land cover changes within protected areas were less frequent than outside, although they still amounted to 18,800 km2 (1.5% of all protected areas) from 2000 to 2012. In some parts of Europe, urbanisation and intensification of agriculture still accounted for up to 25% of land cover changes within protected areas. Modelling revealed meaningful relationships between land cover changes and a combination of influencing factors. Demographic factors (accessibility to cities and population density) were most important for coarse-scale patterns of land cover changes, whereas fine-scale patterns were most related to longitude (representing the general east/west economic gradient) and latitude (representing the north/south climatic gradient). T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 764 KW - Species-Diversity KW - Determinants KW - Intensity KW - Patterns KW - Transformation KW - Tree KW - National-Parks KW - Biodiversity KW - Drivers KW - Abandonment Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-437885 IS - 764 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hodgkins, Suzanne B. A1 - Richardson, Curtis J. A1 - Dommain, René A1 - Wang, Hongjun A1 - Glaser, Paul H. A1 - Verbeke, Brittany A1 - Winkler, B. Rose A1 - Cobb, Alexander R. A1 - Rich, Virginia I. A1 - Missilmani, Malak A1 - Flanagan, Neal A1 - Ho, Mengchi A1 - Hoyt, Alison M. A1 - Harvey, Charles F. A1 - Vining, S. Rose A1 - Hough, Moira A. A1 - Moore, Tim R. A1 - Richard, Pierre J. H. A1 - De La Cruz, Florentino B. A1 - Toufaily, Joumana A1 - Hamdan, Rasha A1 - Cooper, William T. A1 - Chanton, Jeffrey P. T1 - Tropical peatland carbon storage linked to global latitudinal trends in peat recalcitrance T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Peatlands represent large terrestrial carbon banks. Given that most peat accumulates in boreal regions, where low temperatures and water saturation preserve organic matter, the existence of peat in (sub)tropical regions remains enigmatic. Here we examined peat and plant chemistry across a latitudinal transect from the Arctic to the tropics. Near-surface low-latitude peat has lower carbohydrate and greater aromatic content than near-surface high-latitude peat, creating a reduced oxidation state and resulting recalcitrance. This recalcitrance allows peat to persist in the (sub)tropics despite warm temperatures. Because we observed similar declines in carbohydrate content with depth in high-latitude peat, our data explain recent field-scale deep peat warming experiments in which catotelm (deeper) peat remained stable despite temperature increases up to 9 degrees C. We suggest that high-latitude deep peat reservoirs may be stabilized in the face of climate change by their ultimately lower carbohydrate and higher aromatic composition, similar to tropical peats. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1125 KW - dissolved organic matter KW - greenhouse gas fluxes KW - permafrost thaw KW - Northern Minnesota KW - FTIR spectroscopy KW - lignin content KW - brown rot KW - decomposition KW - chemistry KW - dynamics Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-459658 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1125 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Howald, Markus A1 - Elsenbeer, Helmut A1 - Laczko, Endre A1 - Schlunegger, Urs Peter T1 - Capillary electrophoresis as a fast and universal tool in soil analysis N2 - Fast analysis of different species of molecules in soils is investigated by capillary electrophoresis (CE). Several CE techniques for the analysis of inorganic ions and carbohydrates have been tested. With regard to the intents of pedologists and the usually large number of soil analyses a bundle of CE systems is proposed, capable of effecting time-saving soil analyses. Adapted electrolyte systems recently published and new separation systems are described. Examples of the application of these methods to two different soil samples are presented. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 070 KW - capillary electrophoresis KW - soil analysis KW - UV-detection KW - inorganic ions KW - monosaccharides Y1 - 1995 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-16913 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Huber, Veronika A1 - Krummenauer, Linda A1 - Peña-Ortiz, Cristina A1 - Lange, Stefan A1 - Gasparrini, Antonio A1 - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria A1 - Garcia-Herrera, Ricardo A1 - Frieler, Katja T1 - Temperature-related excess mortality in German cities at 2 °C and higher degrees of global warming T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Background: Investigating future changes in temperature-related mortality as a function of global mean temperature (GMT) rise allows for the evaluation of policy-relevant climate change targets. So far, only few studies have taken this approach, and, in particular, no such assessments exist for Germany, the most populated country of Europe. Methods: We assess temperature-related mortality in 12 major German cities based on daily time-series of all-cause mortality and daily mean temperatures in the period 1993-2015, using distributed-lag non-linear models in a two-stage design. Resulting risk functions are applied to estimate excess mortality in terms of GMT rise relative to pre-industrial levels, assuming no change in demographics or population vulnerability. Results: In the observational period, cold contributes stronger to temperature-related mortality than heat, with overall attributable fractions of 5.49% (95%CI: 3.82-7.19) and 0.81% (95%CI: 0.72-0.89), respectively. Future projections indicate that this pattern could be reversed under progressing global warming, with heat-related mortality starting to exceed cold-related mortality at 3 degrees C or higher GMT rise. Across cities, projected net increases in total temperature-related mortality were 0.45% (95%CI: -0.02-1.06) at 3 degrees C, 1.53% (95%CI: 0.96-2.06) at 4 degrees C, and 2.88% (95%CI: 1.60-4.10) at 5 degrees C, compared to today's warming level of 1 degrees C. By contrast, no significant difference was found between projected total temperature-related mortality at 2 degrees C versus 1 degrees C of GMT rise. Conclusions: Our results can inform current adaptation policies aimed at buffering the health risks from increased heat exposure under climate change. They also allow for the evaluation of global mitigation efforts in terms of local health benefits in some of Germany's most populated cities. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1430 KW - temperature-related mortality KW - climate change KW - Future projections KW - Germany KW - global mean temperature Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516511 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Pham, My A1 - Hagedoorn, Liselotte A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Lasage, Ralph A1 - Bubeck, Philip T1 - Self-stated recovery from flooding BT - empirical results from a survey in Central Vietnam T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Social inequalities lead to flood resilience inequalities across social groups, a topic that requires improved documentation and understanding. The objective of this paper is to attend to these differences by investigating self-stated flood recovery across genders in Vietnam as a conceptual replication of earlier results from Germany. This study employs a regression-based analysis of 1,010 respondents divided between a rural coastal and an urban community in Thua Thien-Hue province. The results highlight an important set of recovery process-related variables. The set of relevant variables is similar across genders in terms of inclusion and influence, and includes age, social capital, internal and external support after a flood, perceived severity of previous flood impacts, and the perception of stress-resilience. However, women were affected more heavily by flooding in terms of longer recovery times, which should be accounted for in risk management. Overall, the studied variables perform similarly in Vietnam and Germany. This study, therefore, conceptually replicates previous results suggesting that women display slightly slower recovery levels as well as that psychological variables influence recovery rates more than adverse flood impacts. This provides an indication of the results' potentially robust nature due to the different socio-environmental contexts in Germany and Vietnam. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1140 KW - flood recovery KW - resilience KW - societal equity KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-503488 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1140 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jehmlich, Caroline A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Short contribution on adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies BT - a pilot study of Dresden-Laubegast, Germany T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Integrated flood management strategies consider property-level precautionary measures as a vital part. Whereas this is a well-researched topic for residents, little is known about the adaptive behaviour of flood-prone companies although they often settle on the ground floor of buildings and are thus among the first affected by flooding. This pilot study analyses flood responses of 64 businesses in a district of the city of Dresden, Germany that experienced major flooding in 2002 and 2013. Using standardised survey data and accompanying qualitative interviews, the analyses revealed that the largest driver of adaptive behaviour is experiencing flood events. Intangible factors such as tradition and a sense of community play a role for the decision to stay in the area, while lacking ownership might hamper property-level adaptation. Further research is also needed to understand the role of insurance and governmental aid for recovery and adaptation of businesses. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1024 KW - adaptation KW - disaster risk reduction KW - integrated flood risk management KW - risk perception Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-485528 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1024 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Jing, Miao A1 - Kumar, Rohini A1 - Heße, Falk A1 - Thober, Stephan A1 - Rakovec, Oldrich A1 - Samaniego, Luis A1 - Attinger, Sabine T1 - Assessing the response of groundwater quantity and travel time distribution to 1.5, 2, and 3 °C global warming in a mesoscale central German basin T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Groundwater is the biggest single source of high-quality freshwater worldwide, which is also continuously threatened by the changing climate. In this paper, we investigate the response of the regional groundwater system to climate change under three global warming levels (1.5, 2, and 3 ∘C) in a central German basin (Nägelstedt). This investigation is conducted by deploying an integrated modeling workflow that consists of a mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM) and a fully distributed groundwater model, OpenGeoSys (OGS). mHM is forced with climate simulations of five general circulation models under three representative concentration pathways. The diffuse recharges estimated by mHM are used as boundary forcings to the OGS groundwater model to compute changes in groundwater levels and travel time distributions. Simulation results indicate that groundwater recharges and levels are expected to increase slightly under future climate scenarios. Meanwhile, the mean travel time is expected to decrease compared to the historical average. However, the ensemble simulations do not all agree on the sign of relative change. Changes in mean travel time exhibit a larger variability than those in groundwater levels. The ensemble simulations do not show a systematic relationship between the projected change (in both groundwater levels and travel times) and the warming level, but they indicate an increased variability in projected changes with adjusting the enhanced warming level from 1.5 to 3 ∘C. Correspondingly, it is highly recommended to restrain the trend of global warming. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1402 KW - climate change impacts KW - hydrological models KW - coupled surface KW - water fluxes KW - catchment KW - recharge KW - dynamics KW - aquifer KW - flow KW - parameterization Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-509343 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 3 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Bayesian geomorphology T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The rapidly growing amount and diversity of data are confronting us more than ever with the need to make informed predictions under uncertainty. The adverse impacts of climate change and natural hazards also motivate our search for reliable predictions. The range of statistical techniques that geomorphologists use to tackle this challenge has been growing, but rarely involves Bayesian methods. Instead, many geomorphic models rely on estimated averages that largely miss out on the variability of form and process. Yet seemingly fixed estimates of channel heads, sediment rating curves or glacier equilibrium lines, for example, are all prone to uncertainties. Neighbouring scientific disciplines such as physics, hydrology or ecology have readily embraced Bayesian methods to fully capture and better explain such uncertainties, as the necessary computational tools have advanced greatly. The aim of this article is to introduce the Bayesian toolkit to scientists concerned with Earth surface processes and landforms, and to show how geomorphic models might benefit from probabilistic concepts. I briefly review the use of Bayesian reasoning in geomorphology, and outline the corresponding variants of regression and classification in several worked examples. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1348 KW - Bayes’ rule KW - probability KW - uncertainty KW - prediction Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-539892 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Korzeniowska, Karolina A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Object-based detection of lakes prone to seasonal ice cover on the Tibetan Plateau T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Tibetan Plateau, the world's largest orogenic plateau, hosts thousands of lakes that play prominent roles as water resources, environmental archives, and sources of natural hazards such as glacier lake outburst floods. Previous studies have reported that the size of lakes on the Tibetan Plateau has changed rapidly in recent years, possibly because of atmospheric warming. Tracking these changes systematically with remote sensing data is challenging given the different spectral signatures of water, the potential for confusing lakes with glaciers, and difficulties in classifying frozen or partly frozen lakes. Object-based image analysis (OBIA) offers new opportunities for automated classification in this context, and we have explored this method for mapping lakes from LANDSAT images and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) elevation data. We tested our algorithm for most of the Tibetan Plateau, where lakes in tectonic depressions or blocked by glaciers and sediments have different surface colours and seasonal ice cover in images obtained in 1995 and 2015. We combined a modified normalised difference water index (MNDWI) with OBIA and local topographic slope data in order to classify lakes with an area > 10 km(2). Our method derived 323 water bodies, with a total area of 31,258 km(2), or 2.6% of the study area (in 2015). The same number of lakes had covered only 24,892 km(2) in 1995; lake area has increased by -26% in the past two decades. The classification had estimated producer's and user's accuracies of 0.98, with a Cohen's kappa and F-score of 0.98, and may thus be a useful approximation for quantifying regional hydrological budgets. We have shown that our method is flexible and transferable to detecting lakes in diverse physical settings on several continents with similar success rates. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1037 KW - Tibetan Plateau KW - lakes KW - LANDSAT KW - SRTM KW - MNDWI KW - OBIA KW - change detection Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-475037 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1037 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Koç, Gamze A1 - Petrow, Theresia A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Analysis of the Most Severe Flood Events in Turkey (1960–2014) BT - Which Triggering Mechanisms and Aggravating Pathways Can be Identified? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The most severe flood events in Turkey were determined for the period 1960–2014 by considering the number of fatalities, the number of affected people, and the total economic losses as indicators. The potential triggering mechanisms (i.e., atmospheric circulations and precipitation amounts) and aggravating pathways (i.e., topographic features, catchment size, land use types, and soil properties) of these 25 events were analyzed. On this basis, a new approach was developed to identify the main influencing factor per event and to provide additional information for determining the dominant flood occurrence pathways for severe floods. The events were then classified through hierarchical cluster analysis. As a result, six different clusters were found and characterized. Cluster 1 comprised flood events that were mainly influenced by drainage characteristics (e.g., catchment size and shape); Cluster 2 comprised events aggravated predominantly by urbanization; steep topography was identified to be the dominant factor for Cluster 3; extreme rainfall was determined as the main triggering factor for Cluster 4; saturated soil conditions were found to be the dominant factor for Cluster 5; and orographic effects of mountain ranges characterized Cluster 6. This study determined pathway patterns of the severe floods in Turkey with regard to their main causal or aggravating mechanisms. Accordingly, geomorphological properties are of major importance in large catchments in eastern and northeastern Anatolia. In addition, in small catchments, the share of urbanized area seems to be an important factor for the extent of flood impacts. This paper presents an outcome that could be used for future urban planning and flood risk prevention studies to understand the flood mechanisms in different regions of Turkey. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1003 KW - hierarchical clustering KW - Hess-Brezowsky Großwetterlagen classification KW - ERA5 KW - flood hazards KW - pathway KW - Turkey Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-477331 IS - 1003 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Masson, Torsten A1 - Kienzler, Sarah A1 - Sieg, Tobias A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Kreibich, Heidi T1 - Multiple flood experiences and social resilience BT - Findings from three surveys on households and companies exposed to the 2013 flood in Germany T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Previous studies have explored the consequences of flood events for exposed households and companies by focusing on single flood events. Less is known about the consequences of experiencing repeated flood events for the resilience of households and companies. In this paper, we therefore explore how multiple floods experience affects the resilience of exposed households and companies. Resilience was made operational through individual appraisals of households and companies' ability to withstand and recover from material as well as health and psychological impacts of the 2013 flood in Germany. The paper is based on three different datasets including more than 2000 households and 300 companies that were affected by the 2013 flood. The surveys revealed that the resilience of households seems to increase, but only with regard to their subjectively appraised ability to withstand impacts on mobile goods and equipment (e.g., cars, TV, and radios). In regard to the ability of households to withstand overall financial consequences of repetitive floods, evidence for nonlinear (quadratic) trends can be found. With regard to psychological and health-related consequences, the findings are mixed but provide tentative evidence for eroding resilience among households. Companies' resilience increased with respect to material assets but appears to decrease with respect to ability to recover. We conclude by arguing that clear and operational definitions of resilience are required so that evidence-based resilience baselines can be established to assess whether resilience is eroding or improving over time. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1398 KW - social science KW - Europe Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-516500 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kuhlicke, Christian A1 - Seebauer, Sebastian A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Begg, Chloe A1 - Bubeck, Philip A1 - Dittmer, Cordula A1 - Grothmann, Torsten A1 - Heidenreich, Anna A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Lorenz, Daniel F. A1 - Masson, Torsten A1 - Reiter, Jessica A1 - Thaler, Thomas A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Bamberg, Sebastian T1 - The behavioral turn in flood risk management, its assumptions and potential implications T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Recent policy changes highlight the need for citizens to take adaptive actions to reduce flood-related impacts. Here, we argue that these changes represent a wider behavioral turn in flood risk management (FRM). The behavioral turn is based on three fundamental assumptions: first, that the motivations of citizens to take adaptive actions can be well understood so that these motivations can be targeted in the practice of FRM; second, that private adaptive measures and actions are effective in reducing flood risk; and third, that individuals have the capacities to implement such measures. We assess the extent to which the assumptions can be supported by empirical evidence. We do this by engaging with three intellectual catchments. We turn to research by psychologists and other behavioral scientists which focus on the sociopsychological factors which influence individual motivations (Assumption 1). We engage with economists, engineers, and quantitative risk analysts who explore the extent to which individuals can reduce flood related impacts by quantifying the effectiveness and efficiency of household-level adaptive measures (Assumption 2). We converse with human geographers and sociologists who explore the types of capacities households require to adapt to and cope with threatening events (Assumption 3). We believe that an investigation of the behavioral turn is important because if the outlined assumptions do not hold, there is a risk of creating and strengthening inequalities in FRM. Therefore, we outline the current intellectual and empirical knowledge as well as future research needs. Generally, we argue that more collaboration across intellectual catchments is needed, that future research should be more theoretically grounded and become methodologically more rigorous and at the same time focus more explicitly on the normative underpinnings of the behavioral turn. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1440 KW - capacities KW - effectiveness KW - motivation KW - resources KW - risk governance KW - vulnerability Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517696 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 3 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Kärcher, Oskar A1 - Filstrup, Christopher T. A1 - Brauns, Mario A1 - Tasevska, Orhideja A1 - Patceva, Suzana A1 - Hellwig, Niels A1 - Walz, Ariane A1 - Frank, Karin A1 - Markovic, Danijela T1 - Chlorophyll a relationships with nutrients and temperature, and predictions for lakes across perialpine and Balkan mountain regions T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Model-derived relationships between chlorophyll a (Chl-a) and nutrients and temperature have fundamental implications for understanding complex interactions among water quality measures used for lake classification, yet accuracy comparisons of different approaches are scarce. Here, we (1) compared Chl-a model performances across linear and nonlinear statistical approaches; (2) evaluated single and combined effects of nutrients, depth, and temperature as lake surface water temperature (LSWT) or altitude on Chl-a; and (3) investigated the reliability of the best water quality model across 13 lakes from perialpine and central Balkan mountain regions. Chl-a was modelled using in situ water quality data from 157 European lakes; elevation data and LSWT in situ data were complemented by remote sensing measurements. Nonlinear approaches performed better, implying complex relationships between Chl-a and the explanatory variables. Boosted regression trees, as the best performing approach, accommodated interactions among predictor variables. Chl-a-nutrient relationships were characterized by sigmoidal curves, with total phosphorus having the largest explanatory power for our study region. In comparison with LSWT, utilization of altitude, the often-used temperature surrogate, led to different influence directions but similar predictive performances. These results support utilizing altitude in models for Chl-a predictions. Compared to Chl-a observations, Chl-a predictions of the best performing approach for mountain lakes (oligotrophic-eutrophic) led to minor differences in trophic state categorizations. Our findings suggest that both models with LSWT and altitude are appropriate for water quality predictions of lakes in mountain regions and emphasize the importance of incorporating interactions among variables when facing lake management challenges. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1443 KW - chlorophyll a KW - nutrients KW - Ohrid-Prespa region KW - perialpine lakes KW - water temperature Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515271 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Laudan, Jonas A1 - Zöller, Gert A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Flash floods versus river floods BT - a comparison of psychological impacts and implications for precautionary behaviour T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - River floods are among the most damaging natural hazards that frequently occur in Germany. Flooding causes high economic losses and impacts many residents. In 2016, several southern German municipalities were hit by flash floods after unexpectedly severe heavy rainfall, while in 2013 widespread river flooding had occurred. This study investigates and compares the psychological impacts of river floods and flash floods and potential consequences for precautionary behaviour. Data were collected using computer-aided telephone interviews that were conducted among flood-affected households around 9 months after each damaging event. This study applies Bayesian statistics and negative binomial regressions to test the suitability of psychological indicators to predict the precaution motivation of individuals. The results show that it is not the particular flood type but rather the severity and local impacts of the event that are crucial for the different, and potentially negative, impacts on mental health. According to the used data, however, predictions of the individual precaution motivation should not be based on the derived psychological indicators – i.e. coping appraisal, threat appraisal, burden and evasion – since their explanatory power was generally low and results are, for the most part, non-significant. Only burden reveals a significant positive relation to planned precaution regarding weak flash floods. In contrast to weak flash floods and river floods, the perceived threat of strong flash floods is significantly lower although feelings of burden and lower coping appraisals are more pronounced. Further research is needed to better include psychological assessment procedures and to focus on alternative data sources regarding floods and the connected precaution motivation of affected residents. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 968 KW - private households KW - risk perceptions KW - extreme rainfall KW - health KW - mitigation KW - Germany KW - people KW - damage KW - preparedness KW - residents Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473974 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 968 SP - 999 EP - 1023 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Licht, Alexis A1 - Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume A1 - Pullen, Alex A1 - Kapp, Paul A1 - Abels, Hemmo A. A1 - Lai, Zulong A1 - Guo, ZhaoJie A1 - Abell, Jordan A1 - Giesler, Dominique T1 - Resilience of the Asian atmospheric circulation shown by paleogene dust provenance T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The onset of modern central Asian atmospheric circulation is traditionally linked to the interplay of surface uplift of the Mongolian and Tibetan-Himalayan orogens, retreat of the Paratethys sea from central Asia and Cenozoic global cooling. Although the role of these players has not yet been unravelled, the vast dust deposits of central China support the presence of arid conditions and modern atmospheric pathways for the last 25 million years (Myr). Here, we present provenance data from older (42-33 Myr) dust deposits, at a time when the Tibetan Plateau was less developed, the Paratethys sea still present in central Asia and atmospheric pCO(2) much higher. Our results show that dust sources and near-surface atmospheric circulation have changed little since at least 42 Myr. Our findings indicate that the locus of central Asian high pressures and concurrent aridity is a resilient feature only modulated by mountain building, global cooling and sea retreat. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1114 KW - Chinese Loess Plateau KW - last glacial maximum KW - Tibetan Plateau KW - Yellow-River KW - climate KW - basin KW - evolution KW - ardification KW - monsoons KW - desert Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-436381 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1114 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Lindenmaier, Falk A1 - Zehe, Erwin A1 - Dittfurth, Angela A1 - Ihringer, Jürgen T1 - Process identification at a slow-moving landslide in the Vorarlberg Alps N2 - A fine-grained slope that exhibits slow movement rates was investigated to understand how geohydrological processes contribute to a consecutive development of mass movements in the Vorarlberg Alps, Austria. For that purpose intensive hydrometeorological, hydrogeological and geotechnical observations as well as surveying of surface movement rates were conducted during 1998–2001. Subsurface water dynamics at the creeping slope turned out to be dominated by a three-dimensional pressure system. The pressure reaction is triggered by fast infiltration of surface water and subsequent lateral water flow in the south-western part of the hillslope. The related pressure signal was shown to propagate further downhill, causing fast reactions of the piezometric head at 5Ð5 m depth on a daily time scale. The observed pressure reactions might belong to a temporary hillslope water body that extends further downhill. The related buoyancy forces could be one of the driving forces for the mass movement. A physically based hydrological model was adopted to model simultaneously surface and subsurface water dynamics including evapotranspiration and runoff production. It was possible to reproduce surface runoff and observed pressure reactions in principle. However, as soil hydraulic functions were only estimated on pedotransfer functions, a quantitative comparison between observed and simulated subsurface dynamics is not feasible. Nevertheless, the results suggest that it is possible to reconstruct important spatial structures based on sparse observations in the field which allow reasonable simulations with a physically based hydrological model. Copyright  2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. KEY WORDS rainfall-induced landslides; soil creep; hydrological modelling; Vorarlberg; Austria; pressure propagation Y1 - 2004 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-60226 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Manzoni, Stefano A1 - Čapek, Petr A1 - Porada, Philipp A1 - Thurner, Martin A1 - Winterdahl, Mattias A1 - Beer, Christian A1 - Brüchert, Volker A1 - Frouz, Jan A1 - Herrmann, Anke M. A1 - Lindahl, Björn D. A1 - Lyon, Steve W. A1 - Šantrůčková, Hana A1 - Vico, Giulia A1 - Way, Danielle T1 - Reviews and syntheses BT - carbon use efficiency from organisms to ecosystems – definitions, theories, and empirical evidence T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The cycling of carbon (C) between the Earth surface and the atmosphere is controlled by biological and abiotic processes that regulate C storage in biogeochemical compartments and release to the atmosphere. This partitioning is quantified using various forms of C-use efficiency (CUE) - the ratio of C remaining in a system to C entering that system. Biological CUE is the fraction of C taken up allocated to biosynthesis. In soils and sediments, C storage depends also on abiotic processes, so the term C-storage efficiency (CSE) can be used. Here we first review and reconcile CUE and CSE definitions proposed for autotrophic and heterotrophic organisms and communities, food webs, whole ecosystems and watersheds, and soils and sediments using a common mathematical framework. Second, we identify general CUE patterns; for example, the actual CUE increases with improving growth conditions, and apparent CUE decreases with increasing turnover. We then synthesize > 5000CUE estimates showing that CUE decreases with increasing biological and ecological organization - from uni-cellular to multicellular organisms and from individuals to ecosystems. We conclude that CUE is an emergent property of coupled biological-abiotic systems, and it should be regarded as a flexible and scale-dependent index of the capacity of a given system to effectively retain C. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1134 KW - gross primary production KW - net primary production KW - plant respiration KW - microbial carbon KW - stoichiometric controls KW - growth efficiency KW - bacterial growth KW - excess carbon KW - soil KW - matter Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-446386 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1134 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Marrucci, Monica A1 - Zeilinger, Gerold A1 - Ribolini, Adriano A1 - Schwanghart, Wolfgang T1 - Origin of knickpoints in an alpine context subject to different perturbing factors, Stura Valley, Maritime Alps (North-Western Italy) T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Natural catchments are likely to show the existence of knickpoints in their river networks. The origin and genesis of the knickpoints can be manifold, considering that the present morphology is the result of the interactions of different factors such as tectonic movements, quaternary glaciations, river captures, variable lithology, and base-level changes. We analyzed the longitudinal profiles of the river channels in the Stura di Demonte Valley (Maritime Alps) to identify the knickpoints of such an alpine setting and to characterize their origins. The distribution and the geometry of stream profiles were used to identify the possible causes of the changes in stream gradients and to define zones with genetically linked knickpoints. Knickpoints are key geomorphological features for reconstructing the evolution of fluvial dissected basins, when the different perturbing factors affecting the ideally graded fluvial system have been detected. This study shows that even in a regionally small area, perturbations of river profiles are caused by multiple factors. Thus, attributing (automatically)-extracted knickpoints solely to one factor, can potentially lead to incomplete interpretations of catchment evolution. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1070 KW - knickpoint KW - river longitudinal profile KW - Maritime Alps Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-472642 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1070 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Metin, Ayse Duha A1 - Dung, Nguyen Viet A1 - Schröter, Kai A1 - Guse, Björn A1 - Apel, Heiko A1 - Kreibich, Heidi A1 - Vorogushyn, Sergiy A1 - Merz, Bruno T1 - How do changes along the risk chain affect flood risk? T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flood risk is impacted by a range of physical and socio-economic processes. Hence, the quantification of flood risk ideally considers the complete flood risk chain, from atmospheric processes through catchment and river system processes to damage mechanisms in the affected areas. Although it is generally accepted that a multitude of changes along the risk chain can occur and impact flood risk, there is a lack of knowledge of how and to what extent changes in influencing factors propagate through the chain and finally affect flood risk. To fill this gap, we present a comprehensive sensitivity analysis which considers changes in all risk components, i.e. changes in climate, catchment, river system, land use, assets, and vulnerability. The application of this framework to the mesoscale Mulde catchment in Germany shows that flood risk can vary dramatically as a consequence of plausible change scenarios. It further reveals that components that have not received much attention, such as changes in dike systems or in vulnerability, may outweigh changes in often investigated components, such as climate. Although the specific results are conditional on the case study area and the selected assumptions, they emphasize the need for a broader consideration of potential drivers of change in a comprehensive way. Hence, our approach contributes to a better understanding of how the different risk components influence the overall flood risk. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1067 KW - global sensitivity analysis KW - climate change KW - river floods KW - frequency KW - Europe KW - model KW - vulnerability KW - adaptation KW - strategies KW - catchment Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468790 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1067 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Mtilatila, Lucy Mphatso Ng'ombe A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Vormoor, Klaus Josef T1 - Temporal evaluation and projections of meteorological droughts in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin, Southeast Africa T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The study examined the potential future changes of drought characteristics in the Greater Lake Malawi Basin in Southeast Africa. This region strongly depends on water resources to generate electricity and food. Future projections (considering both moderate and high emission scenarios) of temperature and precipitation from an ensemble of 16 bias-corrected climate model combinations were blended with a scenario-neutral response surface approach to analyses changes in: (i) the meteorological conditions, (ii) the meteorological water balance, and (iii) selected drought characteristics such as drought intensity, drought months, and drought events, which were derived from the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index. Changes were analyzed for a near-term (2021–2050) and far-term period (2071–2100) with reference to 1976–2005. The effect of bias-correction (i.e., empirical quantile mapping) on the ability of the climate model ensemble to reproduce observed drought characteristics as compared to raw climate projections was also investigated. Results suggest that the bias-correction improves the climate models in terms of reproducing temperature and precipitation statistics but not drought characteristics. Still, despite the differences in the internal structures and uncertainties that exist among the climate models, they all agree on an increase of meteorological droughts in the future in terms of higher drought intensity and longer events. Drought intensity is projected to increase between +25 and +50% during 2021–2050 and between +131 and +388% during 2071–2100. This translates into +3 to +5, and +7 to +8 more drought months per year during both periods, respectively. With longer lasting drought events, the number of drought events decreases. Projected droughts based on the high emission scenario are 1.7 times more severe than droughts based on the moderate scenario. That means that droughts in this region will likely become more severe in the coming decades. Despite the inherent high uncertainties of climate projections, the results provide a basis in planning and (water-)managing activities for climate change adaptation measures in Malawi. This is of particular relevance for water management issues referring hydro power generation and food production, both for rain-fed and irrigated agriculture. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1287 KW - meteorological drought KW - drought intensity KW - climate change KW - drought events KW - Lake Malawi KW - Shire River KW - drought projections KW - South-Eastern Africa Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-571284 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1287 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Natho, Stephanie T1 - How Flood Hazard Maps Improve the Understanding of Ecologically Active Floodplains T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Floodplains are threatened ecosystems and are not only ecologically meaningful but also important for humans by creating multiple benefits. Many underlying functions, like nutrient retention, carbon sequestration or water regulation, strongly depend on regular inundation. So far, these are approached on the basis of what are called ‘active floodplains’. Active floodplains, defined as statistically inundated once every 100 years, represent less than 10% of a floodplain’s original size. Still, should this remaining area be considered as one homogenous surface in terms of floodplain function, or are there any alternative approaches to quantify ecologically active floodplains? With the European Flood Hazard Maps, the extent of not only medium floods (T-medium) but also frequent floods (T-frequent) needs to be modelled by all member states of the European Union. For large German rivers, both scenarios were compared to quantify the extent, as well as selected indicators for naturalness derived from inundation. It is assumed that the more naturalness there is, the more inundation and the better the functioning. Real inundation was quantified using measured discharges from relevant gauges over the past 20 years. As a result, land uses indicating strong human impacts changed significantly from T-frequent to T-medium floodplains. Furthermore, the extent, water depth and water volume stored in the T-frequent and T-medium floodplains is significantly different. Even T-frequent floodplains experienced inundation for only half of the considered gauges during the past 20 years. This study gives evidence for considering regulation functions on the basis of ecologically active floodplains, meaning in floodplains with more frequent inundation that T-medium floodplains delineate. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1147 KW - active floodplain KW - frequent flood KW - flood hazard map KW - inundation KW - land use Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517613 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1147 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Oguntunde, Philip G. A1 - Abiodun, Babatunde Joseph A1 - Lischeid, Gunnar A1 - Abatan, Abayomi A. T1 - Droughts projection over the Niger and Volta River basins of West Africa at specific global warming levels T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - This study investigates possible impacts of four global warming levels (GWLs: GWL1.5, GWL2.0, GWL2.5, and GWL3.0) on drought characteristics over Niger River basin (NRB) and Volta River basin (VRB). Two drought indices-Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)-were employed in characterizing droughts in 20 multi-model simulation outputs from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The performance of the simulation in reproducing basic hydro-climatological features and severe drought characteristics (i.e., magnitude and frequency) in the basins were evaluated. The projected changes in the future drought frequency were quantified and compared under the four GWLs for two climate forcing scenarios (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). The regional climate model (RCM) ensemble gives a realistic simulation of historical hydro-climatological variables needed to calculate the drought indices. With SPEI, the simulation ensemble projects an increase in the magnitude and frequency of severe droughts over both basins (NRB and VRB) at all GWLs, but the increase, which grows with the GWLs, is higher over NRB than over VRB. More than 75% of the simulations agree on the projected increase at GWL1.5 and all simulations agree on the increase at higher GWLs. With SPI, the projected changes in severe drought is weaker and the magnitude remains the same at all GWLs, suggesting that SPI projection may underestimate impacts of the GWLs on the intensity and severity of future drought. The results of this study have application in mitigating impact of global warming on future drought risk over the regional water systems. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1203 KW - climate change KW - drought index KW - global warming levels KW - river basins KW - West Africa KW - CORDEX data Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525943 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 13 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Puppe, Daniel A1 - Wanner, Manfred A1 - Sommer, Michael T1 - Data on euglyphid testate amoeba densities, corresponding protozoic silicon pools, and selected soil parameters of initial and forested biogeosystems T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The dataset in the present article provides information on protozoic silicon (Si) pools represented by euglyphid testate amoebae (TA) in soils of initial and forested biogeosystems. Protozoic Si pools were calculated from densities of euglyphid TA shells and corresponding Si contents. The article also includes data on potential annual biosilicification rates of euglyphid TA at the examined sites. Furthermore, data on selected soil parameters (e.g., readily-available Si, soil pH) and site characteristics (e.g., soil groups, climate data) can be found. The data might be interesting for researchers focusing on biological processes in Si cycling in general and euglyphid TA and corresponding protozoic Si pools in particular. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1039 KW - silicon cycling KW - biogenic silica KW - terrestrial biogeosystems KW - biosilicification KW - Euglyphida Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-471160 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1039 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Reusser, Dominik A1 - Blume, Theresa A1 - Schaefli, Bettina A1 - Zehe, Erwin T1 - Analysing the temporal dynamics of model performance for hydrological models N2 - The temporal dynamics of hydrological model performance gives insights into errors that cannot be obtained from global performance measures assigning a single number to the fit of a simulated time series to an observed reference series. These errors can include errors in data, model parameters, or model structure. Dealing with a set of performance measures evaluated at a high temporal resolution implies analyzing and interpreting a high dimensional data set. This paper presents a method for such a hydrological model performance assessment with a high temporal resolution and illustrates its application for two very different rainfall-runoff modeling case studies. The first is the Wilde Weisseritz case study, a headwater catchment in the eastern Ore Mountains, simulated with the conceptual model WaSiM-ETH. The second is the Malalcahuello case study, a headwater catchment in the Chilean Andes, simulated with the physicsbased model Catflow. The proposed time-resolved performance assessment starts with the computation of a large set of classically used performance measures for a moving window. The key of the developed approach is a data-reduction method based on self-organizing maps (SOMs) and cluster analysis to classify the high-dimensional performance matrix. Synthetic peak errors are used to interpret the resulting error classes. The final outcome of the proposed method is a time series of the occurrence of dominant error types. For the two case studies analyzed here, 6 such error types have been identified. They show clear temporal patterns, which can lead to the identification of model structural errors. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 140 KW - Rainfall-runoff response KW - Process identification KW - Improved calibration KW - Soil-moisture KW - Catchment Y1 - 2009 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-45114 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Rottler, Erwin A1 - Francke, Till A1 - Bürger, Gerd A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Long-term changes in central European river discharge for 1869–2016 BT - Impact of changing snow covers, reservoir constructions and an intensified hydrological cycle T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Recent climatic changes have the potential to severely alter river runoff, particularly in snow-dominated river basins. Effects of changing snow covers superimpose with changes in precipitation and anthropogenic modifications of the watershed and river network. In the attempt to identify and disentangle long-term effects of different mechanisms, we employ a set of analytical tools to extract long-term changes in river runoff at high resolution. We combine quantile sampling with moving average trend statistics and empirical mode decomposition and apply these tools to discharge data recorded along rivers with nival, pluvial and mixed flow regimes as well as temperature and precipitation data covering the time frame 1869-2016. With a focus on central Europe, we analyse the long-term impact of snow cover and precipitation changes along with their interaction with reservoir constructions. Our results show that runoff seasonality of snow-dominated rivers decreases. Runoff increases in winter and spring, while discharge decreases in summer and at the beginning of autumn. We attribute this redistribution of annual flow mainly to reservoir constructions in the Alpine ridge. During the course of the last century, large fractions of the Alpine rivers were dammed to produce hydropower. In recent decades, runoff changes induced by reservoir constructions seem to overlap with changes in snow cover. We suggest that Alpine signals propagate downstream and affect runoff far outside the Alpine area in river segments with mixed flow regimes. Furthermore, our results hint at more (intense) rain-fall in recent decades. Detected increases in high discharge can be traced back to corresponding changes in precipitation. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1412 KW - empirical mode decomposition KW - atmospheric blocking KW - heavy precipitation KW - streamflow trends KW - climate-change KW - rhine basin KW - time-series KW - events KW - Switzerland KW - variability Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517763 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 4 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Samprogna Mohor, Guilherme A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Residential flood loss estimated from Bayesian multilevel models T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Models for the predictions of monetary losses from floods mainly blend data deemed to represent a single flood type and region. Moreover, these approaches largely ignore indicators of preparedness and how predictors may vary between regions and events, challenging the transferability of flood loss models. We use a flood loss database of 1812 German flood-affected households to explore how Bayesian multilevel models can estimate normalised flood damage stratified by event, region, or flood process type. Multilevel models acknowledge natural groups in the data and allow each group to learn from others. We obtain posterior estimates that differ between flood types, with credibly varying influences of water depth, contamination, duration, implementation of property-level precautionary measures, insurance, and previous flood experience; these influences overlap across most events or regions, however. We infer that the underlying damaging processes of distinct flood types deserve further attention. Each reported flood loss and affected region involved mixed flood types, likely explaining the uncertainty in the coefficients. Our results emphasise the need to consider flood types as an important step towards applying flood loss models elsewhere. We argue that failing to do so may unduly generalise the model and systematically bias loss estimations from empirical data. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1148 KW - damage KW - insurance KW - Germany KW - transferability KW - preparedness KW - recovery Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-517743 SN - 1866-8372 SP - 1599 EP - 1614 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Schmidt, Lennart A1 - Heße, Falk A1 - Attinger, Sabine A1 - Kumar, Rohini T1 - Challenges in applying machine learning models for hydrological inference: a case study for flooding events across Germany T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Machine learning (ML) algorithms are being increasingly used in Earth and Environmental modeling studies owing to the ever-increasing availability of diverse data sets and computational resources as well as advancement in ML algorithms. Despite advances in their predictive accuracy, the usefulness of ML algorithms for inference remains elusive. In this study, we employ two popular ML algorithms, artificial neural networks and random forest, to analyze a large data set of flood events across Germany with the goals to analyze their predictive accuracy and their usability to provide insights to hydrologic system functioning. The results of the ML algorithms are contrasted against a parametric approach based on multiple linear regression. For analysis, we employ a model-agnostic framework named Permuted Feature Importance to derive the influence of models' predictors. This allows us to compare the results of different algorithms for the first time in the context of hydrology. Our main findings are that (1) the ML models achieve higher prediction accuracy than linear regression, (2) the results reflect basic hydrological principles, but (3) further inference is hindered by the heterogeneity of results across algorithms. Thus, we conclude that the problem of equifinality as known from classical hydrological modeling also exists for ML and severely hampers its potential for inference. To account for the observed problems, we propose that when employing ML for inference, this should be made by using multiple algorithms and multiple methods, of which the latter should be embedded in a cross-validation routine. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1193 KW - machine learning KW - inference KW - floods Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-523843 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 5 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Seleem, Omar A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - Transferability of data-driven models to predict urban pluvial flood water depth in Berlin, Germany T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Data-driven models have been recently suggested to surrogate computationally expensive hydrodynamic models to map flood hazards. However, most studies focused on developing models for the same area or the same precipitation event. It is thus not obvious how transferable the models are in space. This study evaluates the performance of a convolutional neural network (CNN) based on the U-Net architecture and the random forest (RF) algorithm to predict flood water depth, the models' transferability in space and performance improvement using transfer learning techniques. We used three study areas in Berlin to train, validate and test the models. The results showed that (1) the RF models outperformed the CNN models for predictions within the training domain, presumable at the cost of overfitting; (2) the CNN models had significantly higher potential than the RF models to generalize beyond the training domain; and (3) the CNN models could better benefit from transfer learning technique to boost their performance outside training domains than RF models. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1323 Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-589168 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1323 SP - 809 EP - 822 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Seleem, Omar A1 - Ayzel, Georgy A1 - Costa Tomaz de Souza, Arthur A1 - Bronstert, Axel A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - Towards urban flood susceptibility mapping using data-driven models in Berlin, Germany T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Identifying urban pluvial flood-prone areas is necessary but the application of two-dimensional hydrodynamic models is limited to small areas. Data-driven models have been showing their ability to map flood susceptibility but their application in urban pluvial flooding is still rare. A flood inventory (4333 flooded locations) and 11 factors which potentially indicate an increased hazard for pluvial flooding were used to implement convolutional neural network (CNN), artificial neural network (ANN), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) to: (1) Map flood susceptibility in Berlin at 30, 10, 5, and 2 m spatial resolutions. (2) Evaluate the trained models' transferability in space. (3) Estimate the most useful factors for flood susceptibility mapping. The models' performance was validated using the Kappa, and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The results indicated that all models perform very well (minimum AUC = 0.87 for the testing dataset). The RF models outperformed all other models at all spatial resolutions and the RF model at 2 m spatial resolution was superior for the present flood inventory and predictor variables. The majority of the models had a moderate performance for predictions outside the training area based on Kappa evaluation (minimum AUC = 0.8). Aspect and altitude were the most influencing factors on the image-based and point-based models respectively. Data-driven models can be a reliable tool for urban pluvial flood susceptibility mapping wherever a reliable flood inventory is available. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1297 KW - Urban pluvial flood susceptibility KW - convolutional neural network KW - deep learning KW - random forest KW - support vector machine KW - spatial resolution KW - flood predictors Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-576806 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1297 SP - 1640 EP - 1662 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Seleem, Omar A1 - Heistermann, Maik A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Efficient Hazard Assessment For Pluvial Floods In Urban Environments BT - A Benchmarking Case Study For The City Of Berlin, Germany T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The presence of impermeable surfaces in urban areas hinders natural drainage and directs the surface runoff to storm drainage systems with finite capacity, which makes these areas prone to pluvial flooding. The occurrence of pluvial flooding depends on the existence of minimal areas for surface runoff generation and concentration. Detailed hydrologic and hydrodynamic simulations are computationally expensive and require intensive resources. This study compared and evaluated the performance of two simplified methods to identify urban pluvial flood-prone areas, namely the fill–spill–merge (FSM) method and the topographic wetness index (TWI) method and used the TELEMAC-2D hydrodynamic numerical model for benchmarking and validation. The FSM method uses common GIS operations to identify flood-prone depressions from a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM). The TWI method employs the maximum likelihood method (MLE) to probabilistically calibrate a TWI threshold (τ) based on the inundation maps from a 2D hydrodynamic model for a given spatial window (W) within the urban area. We found that the FSM method clearly outperforms the TWI method both conceptually and effectively in terms of model performance. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1163 KW - urban pluvial flooding KW - digital elevation model (DEM) KW - fill–spill–merge method KW - topographic wetness index (TWI) KW - TELEMAC-2D model KW - flood-prone area Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-522158 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 18 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Skinner, Christopher J. A1 - Coulthard, Tom J. A1 - Schwanghart, Wolfgang A1 - Van De Wiel, Marco J. A1 - Hancock, Greg T1 - Global sensitivity analysis of parameter uncertainty in landscape evolution models T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The evaluation and verification of landscape evolution models (LEMs) has long been limited by a lack of suitable observational data and statistical measures which can fully capture the complexity of landscape changes. This lack of data limits the use of objective function based evaluation prolific in other modelling fields, and restricts the application of sensitivity analyses in the models and the consequent assessment of model uncertainties. To overcome this deficiency, a novel model function approach has been developed, with each model function representing an aspect of model behaviour, which allows for the application of sensitivity analyses. The model function approach is used to assess the relative sensitivity of the CAESAR-Lisflood LEM to a set of model parameters by applying the Morris method sensitivity analysis for two contrasting catchments. The test revealed that the model was most sensitive to the choice of the sediment transport formula for both catchments, and that each parameter influenced model behaviours differently, with model functions relating to internal geomorphic changes responding in a different way to those relating to the sediment yields from the catchment outlet. The model functions proved useful for providing a way of evaluating the sensitivity of LEMs in the absence of data and methods for an objective function approach. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1084 KW - self-organized criticality KW - rainfall variability KW - sediment transport KW - periglacial engine KW - hydraulic models KW - numerical models KW - mountain erosion KW - river KW - catchment KW - scale Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-468013 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1084 SP - 4873 EP - 4888 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Smetanová, Anna A1 - Müller, Anne A1 - Zargar, Morteza A1 - Suleiman, Mohamed A. A1 - Gholami, Faraz Rabei A1 - Mousavi, Maryam T1 - Mesoscale mapping of sediment source hotspots for dam sediment management in data-sparse semi-arid catchments T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Land degradation and water availability in semi-arid regions are interdependent challenges for management that are influenced by climatic and anthropogenic changes. Erosion and high sediment loads in rivers cause reservoir siltation and decrease storage capacity, which pose risk on water security for citizens, agriculture, and industry. In regions where resources for management are limited, identifying spatial-temporal variability of sediment sources is crucial to decrease siltation. Despite widespread availability of rigorous methods, approaches simplifying spatial and temporal variability of erosion are often inappropriately applied to very data sparse semi-arid regions. In this work, we review existing approaches for mapping erosional hotspots, and provide an example of spatial-temporal mapping approach in two case study regions. The barriers limiting data availability and their effects on erosion mapping methods, their validation, and resulting prioritization of leverage management areas are discussed. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1388 KW - reservoir siltation KW - water security KW - water management KW - data sharing KW - spatial-temporal KW - erosion hotspots KW - mapping KW - global datasets KW - mesoscale KW - leverage areas Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-472441 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 2 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie A1 - Pestryakova, Luidmila Agafyevna A1 - Epp, Laura Saskia A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Phylogenetic diversity and environment form assembly rules for Arctic diatom genera BT - a study on recent and ancient sedimentary DNA T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Aim This study investigates taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity in diatom genera to evaluate assembly rules for eukaryotic microbes across the Siberian tree line. We first analysed how phylogenetic distance relates to taxonomic richness and turnover. Second, we used relatedness indices to evaluate if environmental filtering or competition influences the assemblies in space and through time. Third, we used distance-based ordination to test which environmental variables shape diatom turnover. Location Yakutia and Taymyria, Russia: we sampled 78 surface sediments and a sediment core, extending to 7,000 years before present, to capture the forest-tundra transition in space and time respectively. Taxon Arctic freshwater diatoms. Methods We applied metabarcoding to retrieve diatom diversity from surface and core sedimentary DNA. The taxonomic assignment binned sequence types (lineages) into genera and created taxonomic (abundance of lineages within different genera) and phylogenetic datasets (phylogenetic distances of lineages within different genera). Results Contrary to our expectations, we find a unimodal relationship between phylogenetic distance and richness in diatom genera. We discern a positive relationship between phylogenetic distance and taxonomic turnover in spatially and temporally distributed diatom genera. Furthermore, we reveal positive relatedness indices in diatom genera across the spatial environmental gradient and predominantly in time slices at a single location, with very few exceptions assuming effects of competition. Distance-based ordination of taxonomic and phylogenetic turnover indicates that lake environment variables, like HCO3- and water depth, largely explain diatom turnover. Main conclusion Phylogenetic and abiotic assembly rules are important in understanding the regional assembly of diatom genera across lakes in the Siberian tree line ecotone. Using a space-time approach we are able to exclude the influence of geography and elucidate that lake environmental variables primarily shape the assemblies. We conclude that some diatom genera have greater capabilities to adapt to environmental changes, whereas others will be putatively replaced or lost due to the displacement of the Arctic tundra biome under recent global warming. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1442 KW - ancient sedimentary DNA KW - Arctic lakes KW - assembly rules KW - climate change KW - diatoms KW - environmental filtering KW - phylogenetic diversity KW - Siberian tree line Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515485 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 5 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Tofelde, Stefanie A1 - Savi, Sara A1 - Wickert, Andrew D. A1 - Bufe, Aaron A1 - Schildgen, Taylor F. T1 - Alluvial channel response to environmental perturbations BT - fill-terrace formation and sediment-signal disruption T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The sensitivity of fluvial systems to tectonic and climatic boundary conditions allows us to use the geomorphic and stratigraphic records as quantitative archives of past climatic and tectonic conditions. Thus, fluvial terraces that form on alluvial fans and floodplains as well as the rate of sediment export to oceanic and continental basins are commonly used to reconstruct paleoenvironments. However, we currently lack a systematic and quantitative understanding of the transient evolution of fluvial systems and their associated sediment storage and release in response to changes in base level, water input, and sediment input. Such knowledge is necessary to quantify past environmental change from terrace records or sedimentary deposits and to disentangle the multiple possible causes for terrace formation and sediment deposition. Here, we use a set of seven physical experiments to explore terrace formation and sediment export from a single, braided channel that is perturbed by changes in upstream water discharge or sediment supply, or through downstream base-level fall. Each perturbation differently affects (1) the geometry of terraces and channels, (2) the timing of terrace cutting, and (3) the transient response of sediment export from the basin. In general, an increase in water discharge leads to near-instantaneous channel incision across the entire fluvial system and consequent local terrace cutting, thus preserving the initial channel slope on terrace surfaces, and it also produces a transient increase in sediment export from the system. In contrast, a decreased upstream sediment-supply rate may result in longer lag times before terrace cutting, leading to terrace slopes that differ from the initial channel slope, and also lagged responses in sediment export. Finally, downstream base-level fall triggers the upstream propagation of a diffuse knickzone, forming terraces with upstream-decreasing ages. The slope of terraces triggered by base-level fall mimics that of the newly adjusted active channel, whereas slopes of terraces triggered by a decrease in upstream sediment discharge or an increase in upstream water discharge are steeper compared to the new equilibrium channel. By combining fillterrace records with constraints on sediment export, we can distinguish among environmental perturbations that would otherwise remain unresolved when using just one of these records. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 762 Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-437185 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 762 SP - 609 EP - 631 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Tötzke, Christian A1 - Kardjilov, Nikolay A1 - Hilger, André A1 - Rudolph-Mohr, Nicole A1 - Manke, Ingo A1 - Oswald, Sascha T1 - Three-dimensional in vivo analysis of water uptake and translocation in maize roots by fast neutron tomography T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Root water uptake is an essential process for terrestrial plants that strongly affects the spatiotemporal distribution of water in vegetated soil. Fast neutron tomography is a recently established non-invasive imaging technique capable to capture the 3D architecture of root systems in situ and even allows for tracking of three-dimensional water flow in soil and roots. We present an in vivo analysis of local water uptake and transport by roots of soil-grown maize plants—for the first time measured in a three-dimensional time-resolved manner. Using deuterated water as tracer in infiltration experiments, we visualized soil imbibition, local root uptake, and tracked the transport of deuterated water throughout the fibrous root system for a day and night situation. This revealed significant differences in water transport between different root types. The primary root was the preferred water transport path in the 13-days-old plants while seminal roots of comparable size and length contributed little to plant water supply. The results underline the unique potential of fast neutron tomography to provide time-resolved 3D in vivo information on the water uptake and transport dynamics of plant root systems, thus contributing to a better understanding of the complex interactions of plant, soil and water. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1217 KW - Environmental sciences KW - Optics and photonics KW - Plant sciences Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-529915 SN - 1866-8372 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Veh, Georg A1 - Lützow, Natalie A1 - Kharlamova, Varvara A1 - Petrakov, Dmitry A1 - Hugonnet, Romain A1 - Korup, Oliver T1 - Trends, Breaks, and Biases in the Frequency of Reported Glacier Lake Outburst Floods T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Thousands of glacier lakes have been forming behind natural dams in high mountains following glacier retreat since the early 20th century. Some of these lakes abruptly released pulses of water and sediment with disastrous downstream consequences. Yet it remains unclear whether the reported rise of these glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) has been fueled by a warming atmosphere and enhanced meltwater production, or simply a growing research effort. Here we estimate trends and biases in GLOF reporting based on the largest global catalog of 1,997 dated glacier-related floods in six major mountain ranges from 1901 to 2017. We find that the positive trend in the number of reported GLOFs has decayed distinctly after a break in the 1970s, coinciding with independently detected trend changes in annual air temperatures and in the annual number of field-based glacier surveys (a proxy of scientific reporting). We observe that GLOF reports and glacier surveys decelerated, while temperature rise accelerated in the past five decades. Enhanced warming alone can thus hardly explain the annual number of reported GLOFs, suggesting that temperature-driven glacier lake formation, growth, and failure are weakly coupled, or that outbursts have been overlooked. Indeed, our analysis emphasizes a distinct geographic and temporal bias in GLOF reporting, and we project that between two to four out of five GLOFs on average might have gone unnoticed in the early to mid-20th century. We recommend that such biases should be considered, or better corrected for, when attributing the frequency of reported GLOFs to atmospheric warming. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1264 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-561005 SN - 1866-8372 SP - 1 EP - 14 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vogel, Johannes Joscha A1 - Paton, Eva Nora A1 - Aich, Valentin T1 - Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Mediterranean ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change and the associated increase in climate anomalies. This study investigates extreme ecosystem responses evoked by climatic drivers in the Mediterranean Basin for the time span 1999–2019 with a specific focus on seasonal variations as the seasonal timing of climatic anomalies is considered essential for impact and vulnerability assessment. A bivariate vulnerability analysis is performed for each month of the year to quantify which combinations of the drivers temperature (obtained from ERA5-Land) and soil moisture (obtained from ESA CCI and ERA5-Land) lead to extreme reductions in ecosystem productivity using the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR; obtained from the Copernicus Global Land Service) as a proxy. The bivariate analysis clearly showed that, in many cases, it is not just one but a combination of both drivers that causes ecosystem vulnerability. The overall pattern shows that Mediterranean ecosystems are prone to three soil moisture regimes during the yearly cycle: they are vulnerable to hot and dry conditions from May to July, to cold and dry conditions from August to October, and to cold conditions from November to April, illustrating the shift from a soil-moisture-limited regime in summer to an energy-limited regime in winter. In late spring, a month with significant vulnerability to hot conditions only often precedes the next stage of vulnerability to both hot and dry conditions, suggesting that high temperatures lead to critically low soil moisture levels with a certain time lag. In the eastern Mediterranean, the period of vulnerability to hot and dry conditions within the year is much longer than in the western Mediterranean. Our results show that it is crucial to account for both spatial and temporal variability to adequately assess ecosystem vulnerability. The seasonal vulnerability approach presented in this study helps to provide detailed insights regarding the specific phenological stage of the year in which ecosystem vulnerability to a certain climatic condition occurs. How to cite. Vogel, J., Paton, E., and Aich, V.: Seasonal ecosystem vulnerability to climatic anomalies in the Mediterranean, Biogeosciences, 18, 5903–5927, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5903-2021, 2021. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1252 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-554974 SN - 1866-8372 VL - 18 SP - 5903 EP - 5927 PB - Universitätsverlag Potsdam CY - Potsdam ET - 22 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vogel, Johannes A1 - Paton, Eva A1 - Aich, Valentin A1 - Bronstert, Axel T1 - Increasing compound warm spells and droughts in the Mediterranean Basin T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The co-occurrence of warm spells and droughts can lead to detrimental socio-economic and ecological impacts, largely surpassing the impacts of either warm spells or droughts alone. We quantify changes in the number of compound warm spells and droughts from 1979 to 2018 in the Mediterranean Basin using the ERA5 data set. We analyse two types of compound events: 1) warm season compound events, which are extreme in absolute terms in the warm season from May to October and 2) year-round deseasonalised compound events, which are extreme in relative terms respective to the time of the year. The number of compound events increases significantly and especially warm spells are increasing strongly – with an annual growth rates of 3.9 (3.5) % for warm season (deseasonalised) compound events and 4.6 (4.4) % for warm spells –, whereas for droughts the change is more ambiguous depending on the applied definition. Therefore, the rise in the number of compound events is primarily driven by temperature changes and not the lack of precipitation. The months July and August show the highest increases in warm season compound events, whereas the highest increases of deseasonalised compound events occur in spring and early summer. This increase in deseasonalised compound events can potentially have a significant impact on the functioning of Mediterranean ecosystems as this is the peak phase of ecosystem productivity and a vital phenophase. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1127 KW - Compound events KW - Warm spells KW - Droughts KW - Mediterranean basin KW - Extreme events KW - Climate change Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-496294 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1127 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vogel, Johannes A1 - Rivoire, Pauline A1 - Deidda, Cristina A1 - Rahimi, Leila A1 - Sauter, Christoph A. A1 - Tschumi, Elisabeth A1 - van der Wiel, Karin A1 - Zhang, Tianyi A1 - Zscheischler, Jakob T1 - Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts BT - an application to simulated crop yields T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Compound weather events may lead to extreme impacts that can affect many aspects of society including agriculture. Identifying the underlying mechanisms that cause extreme impacts, such as crop failure, is of crucial importance to improve their understanding and forecasting. In this study, we investigate whether key meteorological drivers of extreme impacts can be identified using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) in a model environment, a method that allows for automated variable selection and is able to handle collinearity between variables. As an example of an extreme impact, we investigate crop failure using annual wheat yield as simulated by the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop model driven by 1600 years of daily weather data from a global climate model (EC-Earth) under present-day conditions for the Northern Hemisphere. We then apply LASSO logistic regression to determine which weather conditions during the growing season lead to crop failure. We obtain good model performance in central Europe and the eastern half of the United States, while crop failure years in regions in Asia and the western half of the United States are less accurately predicted. Model performance correlates strongly with annual mean and variability of crop yields; that is, model performance is highest in regions with relatively large annual crop yield mean and variability. Overall, for nearly all grid points, the inclusion of temperature, precipitation and vapour pressure deficit is key to predict crop failure. In addition, meteorological predictors during all seasons are required for a good prediction. These results illustrate the omnipresence of compounding effects of both meteorological drivers and different periods of the growing season for creating crop failure events. Especially vapour pressure deficit and climate extreme indicators such as diurnal temperature range and the number of frost days are selected by the statistical model as relevant predictors for crop failure at most grid points, underlining their overarching relevance. We conclude that the LASSO regression model is a useful tool to automatically detect compound drivers of extreme impacts and could be applied to other weather impacts such as wildfires or floods. As the detected relationships are of purely correlative nature, more detailed analyses are required to establish the causal structure between drivers and impacts. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1126 Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-496273 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1126 SP - 151 EP - 172 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Voit, Paul A1 - Heistermann, Maik T1 - A new index to quantify the extremeness of precipitation across scales T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Quantifying the extremeness of heavy precipitation allows for the comparison of events. Conventional quantitative indices, however, typically neglect the spatial extent or the duration, while both are important to understand potential impacts. In 2014, the weather extremity index (WEI) was suggested to quantify the extremeness of an event and to identify the spatial and temporal scale at which the event was most extreme. However, the WEI does not account for the fact that one event can be extreme at various spatial and temporal scales. To better understand and detect the compound nature of precipitation events, we suggest complementing the original WEI with a “cross-scale weather extremity index” (xWEI), which integrates extremeness over relevant scales instead of determining its maximum. Based on a set of 101 extreme precipitation events in Germany, we outline and demonstrate the computation of both WEI and xWEI. We find that the choice of the index can lead to considerable differences in the assessment of past events but that the most extreme events are ranked consistently, independently of the index. Even then, the xWEI can reveal cross-scale properties which would otherwise remain hidden. This also applies to the disastrous event from July 2021, which clearly outranks all other analyzed events with regard to both WEI and xWEI. While demonstrating the added value of xWEI, we also identify various methodological challenges along the required computational workflow: these include the parameter estimation for the extreme value distributions, the definition of maximum spatial extent and temporal duration, and the weighting of extremeness at different scales. These challenges, however, also represent opportunities to adjust the retrieval of WEI and xWEI to specific user requirements and application scenarios. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1283 Y1 - 2022 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-570893 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1283 SP - 2791 EP - 2805 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Vyse, Stuart Andrew A1 - Semiromi, Majid Taie A1 - Lischeid, Gunnar A1 - Merz, Christoph T1 - Characterizing hydrological processes within kettle holes using stable water isotopes in the Uckermark of northern Brandenburg, Germany T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Understanding the hydrologic connectivity between kettle holes and shallow groundwater, particularly in reaction to the highly variable local meteorological conditions, is of paramount importance for tracing water in a hydro(geo)logically complex landscape and thus for integrated water resource management. This article is aimed at identifying the dominant hydrological processes affecting the kettle holes' water balance and their interactions with the shallow groundwater domain in the Uckermark region, located in the north-east of Germany. For this reason, based on the stable isotopes of oxygen (delta O-18) and hydrogen (delta H-2), an isotopic mass balance model was employed to compute the evaporative loss of water from the kettle holes from February to August 2017. Results demonstrated that shallow groundwater inflow may play the pivotal role in the processes taking part in the hydrology of the kettle holes in the Uckermark region. Based on the calculated evaporation/inflow (E/I) ratios, most of the kettle holes (86.7%) were ascertained to have a partially open, flow-through-dominated system. Moreover, we identified an inverse correlation between E/I ratios and the altitudes of the kettle holes. The same holds for electrical conductivity (EC) and the altitudes of the kettle holes. In accordance with the findings obtained from this study, a conceptual model explaining the interaction between the shallow groundwater and the kettle holes of Uckermark was developed. The model exhibited that across the highest altitudes, the recharge kettle holes are dominant, where a lower ratio of E/I and a lower EC was detected. By contrast, the lowest topographical depressions represent the discharge kettle holes, where a higher ratio of E/I and EC could be identified. The kettle holes existing in between were categorized as flow-through kettle holes through which the recharge takes place from one side and discharge from the other side. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1392 KW - evaporation KW - groundwater inflow KW - kettle hole KW - stable water isotope KW - surface–groundwater interactions Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-514453 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 8 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Weißhuhn, Peter A1 - Reckling, Moritz A1 - Stachow, Ulrich A1 - Wiggering, Hubert T1 - Supporting agricultural ecosystem services through the integration of perennial polycultures into crop rotations T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - This review analyzes the potential role and long-term effects of field perennial polycultures (mixtures) in agricultural systems, with the aim of reducing the trade-offs between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. First, crop rotations are identified as a suitable tool for the assessment of the long-term effects of perennial polycultures on ecosystem services, which are not visible at the single-crop level. Second, the ability of perennial polycultures to support ecosystem services when used in crop rotations is quantified through eight agricultural ecosystem services. Legume-grass mixtures and wildflower mixtures are used as examples of perennial polycultures, and compared with silage maize as a typical crop for biomass production. Perennial polycultures enhance soil fertility, soil protection, climate regulation, pollination, pest and weed control, and landscape aesthetics compared with maize. They also score lower for biomass production compared with maize, which confirms the trade-off between provisioning and regulating ecosystem services. However, the additional positive factors provided by perennial polycultures, such as reduced costs for mineral fertilizer, pesticides, and soil tillage, and a significant preceding crop effect that increases the yields of subsequent crops, should be taken into account. However, a full assessment of agricultural ecosystem services requires a more holistic analysis that is beyond the capabilities of current frameworks. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1069 KW - agroecosystem KW - assessment KW - legume-grass mixture KW - wildflower mixture KW - perennial crop KW - mixed cropping Y1 - 2021 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-474410 IS - 1069 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Wienhöfer, Jan A1 - Germer, Kai A1 - Lindenmaier, Falk A1 - Färber, Arne A1 - Zehe, Erwin T1 - Applied tracers for the observation of subsurface stormflow at the hillslope scale N2 - Rain fall-runoff response in temperate humid headwater catchments is mainly controlled by hydrolo gical processes at the hillslope scale. Applied tracer experiments with fluore scent dye and salt tracers are well known tools in groundwater studies at the large scale and vadose zone studies at the plot scale, where they provide a means to characterise subsurface flow. We extend this approach to the hillslope scale to investigate saturated and unsaturated flow path s concertedly at a forested hill slope in the Austrian Alps. Dye staining experiments at the plot scale revealed that crack s and soil pipe s function as preferential flow path s in the fine-textured soils of the study area, and these preferenti al flow structures were active in fast subsurface transport of tracers at the hillslope scale. Breakthrough curves obtained under steady flow conditions could be fitted well to a one-dimensional convection-dispersion model. Under natural rain fall a positive correlation of tracer concentrations to the transient flows was observed. The results of this study demon strate qualitative and quantitative effects of preferential flow feature s on subsurface stormflow in a temperate humid headwater catchment. It turn s out that , at the hill slope scale, the interaction s of structures and processes are intrinsically complex, which implies that attempts to model such a hillslope satisfactorily require detailed investigation s of effective structures and parameters at the scale of interest. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - paper 146 KW - Saturated hydraulic conductivity KW - preferential flow pathways KW - solute transport KW - runoff generation KW - fluorescent dyes Y1 - 2009 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus-45246 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Wutzler, Bianca A1 - Hudson, Paul A1 - Thieken, Annegret T1 - Adaptation strategies of flood-damaged businesses in Germany T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Flood risk management in Germany follows an integrative approach in which both private households and businesses can make an important contribution to reducing flood damage by implementing property-level adaptation measures. While the flood adaptation behavior of private households has already been widely researched, comparatively less attention has been paid to the adaptation strategies of businesses. However, their ability to cope with flood risk plays an important role in the social and economic development of a flood-prone region. Therefore, using quantitative survey data, this study aims to identify different strategies and adaptation drivers of 557 businesses damaged by a riverine flood in 2013 and 104 businesses damaged by pluvial or flash floods between 2014 and 2017. Our results indicate that a low perceived self-efficacy may be an important factor that can reduce the motivation of businesses to adapt to flood risk. Furthermore, property-owners tended to act more proactively than tenants. In addition, high experience with previous flood events and low perceived response costs could strengthen proactive adaptation behavior. These findings should be considered in business-tailored risk communication. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1304 KW - risk management KW - climate change adaptation KW - floods KW - disaster risk reduction KW - Germany KW - precaution KW - emergency management Y1 - 2023 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-577350 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1304 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Yamazaki, Yosuke A1 - Wendt, Vivien A1 - Miyoshi, Y. A1 - Stolle, Claudia A1 - Siddiqui, Tarique Adnan A1 - Kervalishvili, Guram N. A1 - Laštovička, J. A1 - Kozubek, M. A1 - Ward, W. A1 - Themens, D. R. A1 - Kristoffersen, S. A1 - Alken, Patrick T1 - September 2019 Antarctic sudden stratospheric warming BT - Quasi-6-Day wave burst and ionospheric effects T2 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - An exceptionally strong stationary planetary wave with Zonal Wavenumber 1 led to a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in the Southern Hemisphere in September 2019. Ionospheric data from European Space Agency's Swarm satellite constellation mission show prominent 6-day variations in the dayside low-latitude region at this time, which can be attributed to forcing from the middle atmosphere by the Rossby normal mode "quasi-6-day wave" (Q6DW). Geopotential height measurements by the Microwave Limb Sounder aboard National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aura satellite reveal a burst of global Q6DW activity in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere during the SSW, which is one of the strongest in the record. The Q6DW is apparently generated in the polar stratosphere at 30-40 km, where the atmosphere is unstable due to strong vertical wind shear connected with planetary wave breaking. These results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can lead to ionospheric variability through wave forcing from the middle atmosphere. Plain Language Summary: A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is an extreme wintertime polar meteorological phenomenon occurring mostly over the Arctic region. Studies have shown that Arctic SSW can influence the entire atmosphere. In September 2019, a rare SSW event occurred in the Antarctic region, providing an opportunity to investigate its broader impact on the whole atmosphere. We present observations from the middle atmosphere and ionosphere during this event, noting unusually strong wave activity throughout this region. Our results suggest that an Antarctic SSW can have a significant impact on the whole atmosphere system similar to those due to Arctic events. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1394 KW - Rossby-normal modes KW - nonumiform background configuration KW - total electron-content KW - large-scale KW - planetary-waves KW - 5-day waves KW - equatorial electrojet KW - lower thermosphere KW - symmetric modes KW - 6.5-Day wave Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-515814 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zimmermann, Heike Hildegard A1 - Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen Rosemarie A1 - Kruse, Stefan A1 - Müller, Juliane A1 - Stein, Ruediger A1 - Tiedemann, Ralf A1 - Herzschuh, Ulrike T1 - Changes in the composition of marine and sea-ice diatoms derived from sedimentary ancient DNA of the eastern Fram Strait over the past 30 000 years T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The Fram Strait is an area with a relatively low and irregular distribution of diatom microfossils in surface sediments, and thus microfossil records are scarce, rarely exceed the Holocene, and contain sparse information about past richness and taxonomic composition. These attributes make the Fram Strait an ideal study site to test the utility of sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) metabarcoding. Amplifying a short, partial rbcL marker from samples of sediment core MSM05/5-712-2 resulted in 95.7 % of our sequences being assigned to diatoms across 18 different families, with 38.6 % of them being resolved to species and 25.8 % to genus level. Independent replicates show a high similarity of PCR products, especially in the oldest samples. Diatom sedaDNA richness is highest in the Late Weichselian and lowest in Mid- and Late Holocene samples. Taxonomic composition is dominated by cold-water and sea-ice-associated diatoms and suggests several reorganisations – after the Last Glacial Maximum, after the Younger Dryas, and after the Early and after the Mid-Holocene. Different sequences assigned to, amongst others, Chaetoceros socialis indicate the detectability of intra-specific diversity using sedaDNA. We detect no clear pattern between our diatom sedaDNA record and the previously published IP25 record of this core, although proportions of pennate diatoms increase with higher IP25 concentrations and proportions of Nitzschia cf. frigida exceeding 2 % of the assemblage point towards past sea-ice presence. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1195 KW - last glacial maximum KW - surface temperatures KW - species composition KW - greenland shelf KW - Disko Bay KW - phytoplankton KW - communities KW - variability KW - diversity KW - Svalbard Y1 - 2019 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-525154 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 5 ER - TY - GEN A1 - Zoll, Felix A1 - Diehl, Katharina A1 - Siebert, Rosemarie T1 - Integrating sustainability goals in innovation processes BT - applying a decision support tool in a dual-purpose chicken case study T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - The innovative dual-purpose chicken approach aims at contributing to the transition towards sustainable poultry production by avoiding the culling of male chickens. To successfully integrate sustainability aspects into innovation, goal congruency among actors and clearly communicating the added value within the actor network and to consumers is needed. The challenge of identifying common sustainability goals calls for decision support tools. The objectives of our research were to investigate whether the tool could assist in improving communication and marketing with respect to sustainability and optimizing the value chain organization. Three actor groups participated in the tool application, in which quantitative and qualitative data were collected. The results showed that there were manifold sustainability goals within the innovation network, but only some goals overlapped, and the perception of their implementation also diverged. While easily marketable goals such as ‘animal welfare’ were perceived as being largely implemented, economic goals were prioritized less often, and the implementation was perceived as being rather low. By visualizing congruencies and differences in the goals, the tool helped identify fields of action, such as improved information flows and prompted thinking processes. We conclude that the tool is useful for managing complex decision processes with several actors involved. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 1036 KW - value-based sustainability assessment KW - stakeholder participation KW - niche level KW - culling of male chickens KW - mixed methods Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-473420 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 1036 ER -