TY - GEN A1 - Reinhardt, Julia A1 - Liersch, Stefan A1 - Abdeladhim, Mohamed Arbi A1 - Diallo, Mori A1 - Dickens, Chris A1 - Fournet, Samuel A1 - Hattermann, Fred Fokko A1 - Kabaseke, Clovis A1 - Muhumuza, Moses A1 - Mul, Marloes L. A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Otto, Ilona M. A1 - Walz, Ariane T1 - Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management BT - evidence from four case studies in Africa T2 - Postprints der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe N2 - Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems. T3 - Zweitveröffentlichungen der Universität Potsdam : Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftliche Reihe - 930 KW - Africa KW - global and regional change KW - integrated assessments KW - participatory research KW - sustainability science Y1 - 2020 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-445784 SN - 1866-8372 IS - 930 ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Reinhardt, Julia A1 - Liersch, Stefan A1 - Abdeladhim, Mohamed Arbi A1 - Diallo, Mori A1 - Dickens, Chris A1 - Fournet, Samuel A1 - Hattermann, Fred Fokko A1 - Kabaseke, Clovis A1 - Muhumuza, Moses A1 - Mul, Marloes L. A1 - Pilz, Tobias A1 - Otto, Ilona M. A1 - Walz, Ariane T1 - Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management BT - evidence from four case studies in Africa JF - Ecology and society : a journal of integrative science for resilience and sustainability N2 - Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems. KW - Africa KW - global and regional change KW - integrated assessments KW - participatory research KW - sustainability science Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-09728-230105 SN - 1708-3087 VL - 23 IS - 1 PB - Resilience Alliance CY - Wolfville ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Schmidt, Katja A1 - Martin-Lopez, Berta A1 - Phillips, Peter M. A1 - Julius, Eike A1 - Makan, Neville A1 - Walz, Ariane T1 - Key landscape features in the provision of ecosystem services BT - Insights for management JF - Land use policy N2 - Whereas ecosystem service research is increasingly being promoted in science and policy, the utilisation of ecosystem services knowledge remains largely underexplored for regional ecosystem management. To overcome the mere generation of knowledge and contribute to decision-making, scientists are facing the challenge of articulating specific implications of the ecosystem service approach for practical land use management. In this contribution, we compare the results of participatory mapping of ecosystem services with the existing management plan for the Pentland Hills Regional Park (Scotland, UK) to inform its future management plan. By conducting participatory mapping in a workshop with key stakeholders (n = 20), we identify hotspots of ecosystem services and the landscape features underpinning such hotspots. We then analyse to what extent these landscape features are the focus of the current management plan. We found a clear mismatch between the key landscape features underpinning the provision of ecosystem services and the management strategy suggested. Our findings allow for a better understanding of the required focus of future land use management to account for ecosystem services. KW - Participatory mapping KW - PPGIS KW - Landscape features KW - Content analysis KW - Land use management KW - Operationalisation Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.12.022 SN - 0264-8377 SN - 1873-5754 VL - 82 SP - 353 EP - 366 PB - Elsevier CY - Oxford ER - TY - JOUR A1 - Veh, Georg A1 - Korup, Oliver A1 - Roessner, Sigrid A1 - Walz, Ariane T1 - Detecting Himalayan glacial lake outburst floods from Landsat time series JF - Remote sensing of environment : an interdisciplinary journal N2 - Several thousands of moraine-dammed and supraglacial lakes spread over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, and some have grown rapidly in past decades due to glacier retreat. The sudden emptying of these lakes releases large volumes of water and sediment in destructive glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), one of the most publicised natural hazards to the rapidly growing Himalayan population. Despite the growing number and size of glacial lakes, the frequency of documented GLOFs is remarkably constant. We explore this possible reporting bias and offer a new processing chain for establishing a more complete Himalayan GLOF inventory. We make use of the full seasonal archive of Landsat images between 1988 and 2016, and track automatically where GLOFs left shrinking water bodies, and tails of sediment at high elevations. We trained a Random Forest classifier to generate fuzzy land cover maps for 2491 images, achieving overall accuracies of 91%. We developed a likelihood-based change point technique to estimate the timing of GLOFs at the pixel scale. Our method objectively detected ten out of eleven documented GLOFs, and another ten lakes that gave rise to previously unreported GLOFs. We thus nearly doubled the existing GLOF record for a study area covering similar to 10% of the HKH region. Remaining challenges for automatically detecting GLOFs include image insufficiently accurate co-registration, misclassifications in the land cover maps and image noise from clouds, shadows or ice. Yet our processing chain is robust and has the potential for being applied on the greater HKH and mountain ranges elsewhere, opening the door for objectively expanding the knowledge base on GLOF activity over the past three decades. KW - Random Forest KW - Fuzzy classification KW - Land cover maps KW - Change detection KW - Change points KW - Lakes KW - Sediment tails KW - Hindu Kush Himalayas (HKH) Y1 - 2018 U6 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.12.025 SN - 0034-4257 SN - 1879-0704 VL - 207 SP - 84 EP - 97 PB - Elsevier CY - New York ER - TY - RPRT A1 - Thieken, Annegret A1 - Dierck, Julia A1 - Dunst, Lea A1 - Göpfert, Christian A1 - Heidenreich, Anna A1 - Hetz, Karen A1 - Kern, Julia A1 - Kern, Kristine A1 - Lipp, Torsten A1 - Lippert, Cordine A1 - Meves, Monika A1 - Niederhafner, Stefan A1 - Otto, Antje A1 - Rohrbacher, Christian A1 - Schmidt, Katja A1 - Strate, Leander A1 - Stumpp, Inga A1 - Walz, Ariane T1 - Urbane Resilienz gegenüber extremen Wetterereignissen – Typologien und Transfer von Anpassungsstrategien in kleinen Großstädten und Mittelstädten (ExTrass) BT - Verbundvorhaben „Zukunftsstadt“ (Definitionsprojekt) N2 - Weltweit verursachen Städte etwa 70 % der Treibhausgasemissionen und sind daher wichtige Akteure im Klimaschutz bzw. eine wichtige Zielgruppe von Klimapolitiken. Gleichzeitig sind Städte besonders stark von möglichen Auswirkungen des Klimawandels betroffen: Insbesondere extreme Wetterereignisse wie Hitzewellen oder Starkregenereignisse mit Überflutungen verursachen in Städten hohe Sachschäden und wirken sich negativ auf die Gesundheit der städtischen Bevölkerung aus. Daher verfolgt das Projekt ExTrass das Ziel, die städtische Resilienz gegenüber extremen Wetterereignissen in enger Zusammenarbeit mit Stadtverwaltungen, Strukturen des Bevölkerungsschutzes und der Zivilgesellschaft zu stärken. Im Fokus stehen dabei (kreisfreie) Groß- und Mittelstädte mit 50.000 bis 500.000 Einwohnern, insbesondere die Fallstudienstädte Potsdam, Remscheid und Würzburg. Der vorliegende Bericht beinhaltet die Ergebnisse der 14-monatigen Definitionsphase von ExTrass, in der vor allem die Abstimmung eines Arbeitsprogramms im Mittelpunkt stand, das in einem nachfolgenden dreijährigen Forschungsprojekt (F+E-Phase) gemeinsam von Wissenschaft und Praxispartnern umgesetzt werden soll. Begleitend wurde eine Bestandsaufnahme von Klimaanpassungs- und Klimaschutzstrategien/-plänen in 99 deutschen Groß- und Mittelstädten vorgenommen. Zudem wurden für Potsdam und Würzburg Pfadanalysen für die Klimapolitik durchgeführt. Darin wird insbesondere die Bedeutung von Schlüsselakteuren deutlich. Weiterhin wurden im Rahmen von Stakeholder-Workshops Anpassungsherausforderungen und aktuelle Handlungsbedarfe in den Fallstudienstädten identifiziert und Lösungsansätze erarbeitet, die in der F+E-Phase entwickelt und getestet werden sollen. Neben Maßnahmen auf gesamtstädtischer Ebene und auf Stadtteilebene wurden Maßnahmen angestrebt, die die Risikowahrnehmung, Vorsorge und Selbsthilfefähigkeit von Unternehmen und Bevölkerung stärken können. Daher wurde der Stand der Risikokommunikation in Deutschland für das Projekt aufgearbeitet und eine erste Evaluation von Risikokommunikationswerkzeugen durchgeführt. Der Bericht endet mit einer Kurzfassung des Arbeitsprogramms 2018-2021. N2 - Cities are responsible for around 70 % of the global greenhouse gas emissions and are hence important for climate mitigation; consequently they are a crucial target group of climate policies. At the same time, cities are also severely affected by potential impacts of climate change: extreme weather events such as heat waves or heavy precipitation (pluvial floods) cause high economic losses in urban areas and have adverse effects on the health of the urban population. Therefore, the project ExTrass is aimed at measurably enhancing cities’ resilience against extreme weather events jointly with representatives of urban administrations, disaster assistance and civil society. The project focusses on small metropolises and medium-sized cities with 50,000 to 500,000 inhabitants, in particular on the case study cities of Potsdam, Remscheid and Würzburg. The report summarizes the results of a 14-month definition phase whose main purpose was to define the research program of the successive 3-year-R+D-project, to be implemented jointly by researchers and practitioners. In addition, an inventory of climate change adaptation and climate mitigation strategies and plans of 99 German metropolises and medium-sized cities was created. Moreover, an in-depth analysis of the pathways of climate policies in the cities of Potsdam and Würzburg was conducted, which particularly revealed the relevance of key personalities. Furthermore, current challenges in climate adaptation and needs for action were identified during stakeholder workshops in the case study cities. In addition, possible solutions were discussed which will be implemented and tested during the R+D-project. Besides measures on the city level and on the level of urban districts, options that improve risk awareness, preparedness and coping capacities of enterprises and residents are strived for. Thus the state-of-the-art of risk communication in Germany was reviewed for the project and a first evaluation of a serious game was performed. The report ends with a brief outline of the work program 2018-2021. KW - Klimaanpassung KW - Klimaschutz KW - Pfadanalysen KW - Stadtentwicklung KW - Hitze KW - Starkregen KW - Risikokommunikation KW - Potsdam KW - Würzburg KW - Deutschland KW - Climate Adaptation KW - Climate Mitigation KW - analysis of pathways KW - urban development KW - heat KW - pluvial flooding KW - risk communication KW - city of Potsdam KW - city of Wuerzburg KW - Germany Y1 - 2018 U6 - http://nbn-resolving.de/urn/resolver.pl?urn:nbn:de:kobv:517-opus4-416067 ER -